EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LXI
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Trfel
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Trfel
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 12 2015 08:36 kitaman27 wrote: Yeah I got a PM so we should be good....until one of the other 8 don't respond to the confirmation. Just one? | ||
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Trfel
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Welcome to Newbie Mafia LXI, with the Amazing Trfel!!! As an extremely experienced and skilled mafia player, you should listen to me and follow my lead. I have played in an entire FIVE games, which puts me in contention for the largest number of games played on this sight. In addition, I have an outstanding 25% rate at catching mafia players! Seeing as this game contains 2 mafia out of 9 players, the mafia are at 22.222%, so if you follow me, we cannot possibly fail. As a closing message to the mafia team: | ||
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On February 15 2015 10:22 rsoultin wrote: Since when are you so confident, Truffle? Remember last game where I opened confidently? I do. It was the game where I was mafia. | ||
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Trfel
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On February 15 2015 10:30 The Shining wrote: Oh I remember, former teammate. And you led the openings again here. Confidently. Bah. Its Valentines Day here in the states on a Saturday night. I don't expect posts to pick up until later tonight and tomorrow. Oh, right. Thanks, I forgot about that. I'll let it drop for now, then. | ||
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Trfel
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All I do know is that when people check in on this thread, they need to have something to comment on, or there is no point in them posting. This was a lot of the problem with the last newbie game, there wasn't enough content to actually read people. And Valentine's Day or not, this game hasn't been looking much better. So yeah, I've drafted all kinds of posts I could make, and nothing seems right. This doesn't seem right either, but at least it's honest. Point being, if someone is here, please say something and we can at least get a little bit of material to work with. | ||
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On February 15 2015 13:43 rsoultin wrote: Lol, I figured with all the facetiousness (five games, 25%, etc. etc.) you may be attempting to get people talking, but it certainly took you long enough to respond xP Why not engage with Shining? He addressed you, too. The first portion of the post is directed to you. The rest of the post (paragraphs 2 through 4, though I really hesitate to call them paragraphs...) are directed to whoever reads the post, specifically those who read the post in the near future. I definitely want to get people talking. If the game starts off at an appropriate pace, it will probably stay there. But if it starts off as an extremely low content game, it will probably stay that way. Unfortunately, the reverse is also true, that if the game starts out with too much spam and not enough content, it will probably stay that way. But in the end, I'd rather have a spammy game than a nonexistent one. | ||
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In particular, The Shining's restatement of my opening post seemed off. Usually, telling the scum to watch out seems to be useless. However, saying that someone needs to back up their words after they say this is even more useless. But, The Shining definitely has a point. My opening post does lack substance. Outside of some extremely brilliant setup talk (which isn't going to happen given the simple setups for this game), a roleclaim is the only first post of any substance that I can think of. But someone has got to do it. I don't feel that my posts warrant the seemingly displeased attitude that The Shining is showing towards me, but I can't say that it isn't at least somewhat deserved. So, I don't particularly like the way that The Shining has played so far, but I see no reason why it is any more likely to come from one alignment from the other. + Show Spoiler + And if you are wondering why it took me so many words to say that, that's a good question. | ||
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On February 15 2015 14:32 rsoultin wrote: @.@ Null novels from a Truffle are always suspect xP I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt for the moment and say you're just trying to explain why it's null. Eh, I didn't find his post terrible? Usually I make similar points with less words and more irony, since your starting post was so blindingly duh xP Is it bad that my main reason for reading you slight town right now was how you seemed to be mocking yourself in your entrance? lol Yeah, that's probably not the best way to get a read. Note that the self-mockery has not yet stopped. As for RNGing a lynch, I'm really surprised that you said that. Especially in a low-activity game, RNGing a lynch is even less effective. This is because it loses the purpose of creating discussion from a new push, and because there is less to work with. It's much better to make a case on someone who has posted in the thread, and exaggerate it to seem stronger than it actually is. | ||
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On February 15 2015 14:37 rsoultin wrote: Also, as a point of curiosity: what sort of reaction were you expecting from that opening? Cheers and shouts to lead us to victory? Hard tunneling? No offense, but there's not a lot to do or read from a post like that, at least imo. I agree, it's rather hard to come to any conclusion based on my post. If the best that town has is following me to victory, then I must say, we'd be in a pretty rough spot. I wouldn't mind hard tunneling at all, though. That would definitely get the game going. | ||
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On February 15 2015 14:45 rsoultin wrote: Ah, but BH swears by it xP Can't possibly be bad, right? lol I'm not much of one for exaggeration. I do tend to overplay my certainty on things for persuasion purposes, but I find I convince myself of things too easily and exaggerating points doesn't help. (The facetiousness in your opening post suggested to me that you were aware of how BS it was and not trying to hide that fact. Yes, it's a tone read, but I don't think it's a terrible one.) That's why I said it probably isn't the best way to read me. I'm sure there are a lot of tone tells that I give that people can pick up on, but of course I don't know them. In this case, your read is correct, so it's quite possible that it has some validity (not that you can be 100% certain of that, of course). I think that RNG lynch is a poor strategy, when compared to other strategies. It can still be effective, and in the hands of a good player, I'm sure it can be very effective. It definitely has merits. But in a low-content game like this one will almost certainly be, I think it's one of the worse things to try and do. Would you like me to build a case on myself to give you some ideas? | ||
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On February 15 2015 14:58 rsoultin wrote: Lol, not particularly? I don't see the point. All I have is tone on you to put you as a town lean, and everything else is solidly null. If you want to make a case against yourself, that's fine? I guess? But I'd be more impressed with a case you actually believed xP Or, rather, I guess if you're scum you'd believe it just fine, but I think you catch my drift, right? Fine, you're right. Since I don't see much reason to call you scum at the moment, I guess there's not much more to do then. On the bright side, the game is slightly more interesting than it was earlier. | ||
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On February 15 2015 15:08 jarjarbinks wrote: Hey guys. Trf: Low content game because of it being a newbie game? Or because of valentines day? I'm mostly worried about this game because it is a newbie game. Historically, newbie games tend to be significantly more mafia favored than normal games, and the newbie game Day 1 mafia lynch percentage is lower than random guessing (oh the irony...). I think that this is primarily due to inactivity. | ||
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On February 15 2015 15:14 rsoultin wrote: Speak of the devil ^^ Did you have a hot date tonight I don't know about, bro? Probably not -amused- I'm sure there's a how-to online somewhere, though >> I could just google it xP From my (limited) understanding of RNG lynch, the point isn't necessarily to actually lynch the target, but to see how people react to the push. On February 15 2015 15:13 jarjarbinks wrote: I think it's mostly due to people not quite understanding what the game is supposed to look like and how scumhunting normally works. I remember in my first game, I had a ton of trouble figuring out how to play the game (heck, I still don't have a very good idea). But I think that the best answer is just to play, it's easier to figure it out by doing it. So my hope is to give people something to talk about, and ideally, create an environment where (town) players don't feel pressured to avoid "messing up", but still being productive.I could see that, I think my first game (the newbie one) was only like 50 ish pages while the student one (my second) was like 100. Guessing its due to a lack of confidence? | ||
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I'll probably go to sleep in the near future, if not right now. Looking forward to when this game really gets started. | ||
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By making everything automated, players would be less likely to say things or analyze the game, since it isn't necessary, and things will keep going on their own. This means that when it actually is time to vote for a lynch as normal, town has basically nothing to work with, even if it is LYLO. In addition, this method gives mafia perfect information as to the lynch order, and without incentive to post, they should have no trouble surviving a few mislynches and winning the game. | ||
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On February 16 2015 02:29 rsoultin wrote: +1, parroting me, but saying it better than I did, lol Not my fault that you woke up before me. Anyway, if anyone would like to discuss more about the Bridges method, I am free to share thoughts. To explain a little more of what I'm getting at, both town and mafia players want to avoid being lynched. So, they will always try to use their switch ability to not get lynched. In a normal game where someone is being pressured, you not only see how people react to pressure on them, but you also see how everyone else reacts. But using the Bridges method, then if someone is being lynched, everyone else will probably watch in silence, at least until the vote order changes. It basically changes the game so that both sides are playing to survive, instead of the mafia playing to survive and the town playing to find the mafia. | ||
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On February 15 2015 19:51 ElyAs wrote: Came back from sleep to see this was on. Gonna share my thoughts on what on some posts that I find significant. I really don't like Trfel's post, it is WIFOM as hell. I guess it doesn't mean a lot this early into the game, but why would you post that? Why do you think I posted that? On February 15 2015 22:58 zlefin wrote: I can't explain my reads well, they're only quite mild reads at this point. For Trfel, it's partly a tonal read, and partly that he's encouraging discussion and trying to get things going. So he's either town, or a well-played (and hence dangerous) scum. For jarjar, it's just an impression, I can't really explain why. I actually like this post a lot. It seems very honest and genuine. I don't think that mafia players would be inclined to say that they can't explain their reads. This is tempered by the fact that zlefin is very clear to say that the reads are weak, however at this point in the game it would be foolish to say otherwise (except in extreme circumstances). I also really like that jarjarbinks used a spreadsheet to test the Bridges method. That is something that I would expect him to do (I would have done it myself if I had the technical ability). Thus, I am more inclined to think that he is town than I was previously. | ||
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Trfel
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Normal mafia games involve using reads to find the scum. When using RNG lynch, you randomly choose a player to push, and use the reactions to help form reads and find the scum. When using the Bridges method, you are doomed to fail unless you use the reads (largely based on the actions people take for switches) to find the scum. The downside with the Bridges method is that the material that players have to work with is extremely limited, which means that at best it results in a normal mafia game with less content. I will be out for the afternoon. | ||
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Hier, really not liking the OMGUS. Really not liking it at all. Doesn't make you mafia, but that doesn't mean that I have to like it, either. Also, Hier, I don't believe that we are going to be following your Bridges plan this game. Whether or not it is a good strategy, it won't work unless people agree to use it, and I believe that at the moment, you are the only one who wants to use it. While I appreciate you sharing the strategy with us, and it is very interesting, and I will definitely try to use people's reactions to it to help discern people's alignments, I don't think that we will actually be using it this game unless it gathers significantly more support in the near future. Zlefin, votes don't always mean that you want to lynch someone right now. Votes can be used for pressure, or to make a statement. Using my vote in a larger variety of ways is something that I need to improve on, since I usually only wait until later in the day and then vote who I want to see lynched. I could be better about using my vote to gather information. Rsoultin, I like the push. I just got back, I'll have more detailed thoughts in a bit after I reread the thread. | ||
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On February 16 2015 07:32 rsoultin wrote: Pretty simple there, Hier. Now where are those reads? Uh, are you reading the thread? He made it pretty clear that he is scumreading you. | ||
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Given the responses currently in the thread, it seems like the answer is that we will not use it? | ||
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On February 16 2015 07:50 Hier wrote: Trfel: It only takes one other player to declare his or her support for the model to get people to support its use. I know how Bridges works and how to use it to get a town victory. I will always abide by its rules, but if you later decide it's not worth it by all means abandon it. Can you please explain to me how it is good for town if one player is playing by the Bridges method and all of the other players are playing as they normally would? That just seems like the players would be forced to ignore the player following the Bridges method, while that player avoids partaking in the discussion and gameplay. | ||
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On February 16 2015 07:58 Hier wrote: Trfel: As as I said, if you have the slightest town read on me, support the model. This will entice others to join. My read on you and my support (or lack thereof) for the Bridges model are completely unrelated. I have stated why I don't think that the Bridges model is a good idea, and while I will take another look at it and your response, I don't think that you have said anything that changes my opinion. If you can't convince anyone else to follow your model, I would expect you to not follow it for this game (regardless of whether or not you still think it is a good method). Unless of course you can explain how it is good for town if one player follows the Bridges method and no one else does. If we don't use your method in this game, I'm sure you can discuss it after the game and potentially use it in a future game. That doesn't mean that it will never see use. | ||
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This is a newbie game. I think it would be a bit more appropriate if you pushed your scumreads a little less aggressively? The first scumread in newbie games tends to get upset and stop playing the game. Obviously, that is not ideal, regardless of their alignment. | ||
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On February 16 2015 08:18 rsoultin wrote: >> Lol, fair enough. Though you do realize this is actually tame for me, yeah? xP It felt about normal to me. If you were pushing me, I wouldn't even blink (based on your tone, I might be surprised by your reasoning....). If this was a normal game, it would not be a problem at all, but for a newbie game, I just think it's better to err on the side of caution. | ||
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On February 16 2015 08:22 rsoultin wrote: Heh, if you've got other criticisms, Trfel, do make them.  You're hinting, after all.I'm refraining from coming down on either side of this until I go back through the thread. While I do like your initiative to push Hier, and I don't particularly like his response, I'm also not sure that I like the way that you are pushing him. I'm thinking something here, but I don't think it is wise to say it. If I am right, then you know why I shouldn't say it at this time. | ||
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Anyway, ElyAs, thanks for answering my question. | ||
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More thoughts will come after dinner. For now, I will talk about the Bridges method. I think that it is a bad idea to use the Bridges method in this game. The main reason for this is that so far, seven players have commented on it (all except for Silverarte and Mimeux/replacement), and six of them seem to have said that they don't think it is a good method (jarjarbinks is the only player who I might be misinterpreting here, though). The only one clearly in favor of it is its creator, Hier. That said, I still think that it is a suboptimal way to play the game. My reasons for this have been stated many times, by myself and others. Therefore, I do not think that we will be using the method in this game, and I expect everyone to agree with this, since we need to work together. Hier, it seems to me that your reason for creating the Bridges method is to make the game more objective, and more based on logic instead of guesswork. Mafia can, and often is, played with the focus on logic instead of randomly guessing. Cases involving logical arguments are extremely powerful. | ||
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On February 16 2015 09:29 jarjarbinks wrote: Rsoultin: Do you actually believe Hier is scum or do you just disapprove of his idea? Town can be wrong right? Maybe next game you can be mother hen xD lol Town can never be wrong. Your statement is wrong, so you are scum. | ||
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The Shining, your point would have validity if I didn't eventually get through reading the thread and checking people to the extent that I would like. However, since I fully intend to do that, the few minutes I spent typing that post are largely irrelevant. I am also suspicious of Hier at this point. His proposing the Bridges method does not really seem to be mafia motivated, and his defense of it seems to be genuine, but he really hasn't done anything that scum coudn't do. While putting himself in the spotlight isn't something that mafia!Hier would really want, it isn't that unexpected, either. In my one game as mafia, I put myself in the spotlight early on. I don't like how Hier has attempted to defend his method, but has not answered questions pertaining to its biggest flaws. However, Hier's counter push on rsoultin actually isn't terrible. Rsoultin's view on Hier did change somewhat, and it is standard to explain yourself when you start a wagon. On February 16 2015 07:32 rsoultin wrote: Pretty simple there, Hier. Now where are those reads? On February 01 2015 04:59 rsoultin wrote: For reference, the first quote is from Linux Mini Mafia, in which rsoultin was town. I believe I have made my point, though. While it is certainly poor for Hiel to have no reads other than the rsoultin scumread, it is still possible to come from town.Lol, it sounds bad and I should just throw out names to appease the masses, but I'm not seeing it. Your entrance has been better. Others are just question marks. I'm not certain about several people, including Damdred, SL and Robik...Palmar for me would be a policy lynch though the vets are calling it a meta read... But as for strong lynch them now scum, no. I'm not going to townread Hier for his Bridges scheme, and I don't believe that his play since then has been very impressive. There is a fair chance that he is scum, but at the moment I don't want to jump on it. I don't really see the case on zlefin. He hasn't done anything remarkable, but he hasn't done anything scummy, either. Mentioning policy lynching is normally considered a scummy thing to do, but in my experience it is null. People always yell at the first player to suggest policy lynching, and they often end up being town. | ||
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To explain, rsoultin and I appear to be thinking in rather similar ways at the moment (if not acting in identical manners). Thus, I am inclined to think that she is town. The reason that I directly acknowledged that is to ensure that I don't townread rsoultin too strongly. If I want to solidly defend her, my comment ensured that I will need to find reasons in addition to her push on Hier. There's a very good chance that what I just said makes no sense to anyone but me. Oh well. | ||
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On February 16 2015 12:11 The Shining wrote: ...shining says he hates walls of text. Shining posts wall of text. Lmao I'm scum reading myself gg Hate to break it to you, my playstyle is walls of text. Though in my last several games, I've definitely fallen too far to the "unreadable wall of text" side. I can show you plenty of horrid "wall of text" posts that I have made as town, and compared to them, this last post I made was nothing at all. My stance on Hier was actually taken quite carefully. Before I decide to vote him or let him slide for the moment, I want to see his thoughts on the events in the thread since he last left, particularly avoiding the validity or lack thereof of the Bridges method. I guess he would be my biggest scumread at the moment, since I am too lazy to read filters and make my own scumread (bad Trfel). ElyAs will probably be my first filter dive. I may not be here for End of Day... ugh. | ||
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On February 16 2015 12:23 Hier wrote: I was excited seeing so many new posts, turns out it was for naught. A lot of people are requesting that I provide further reads. I am going to point out that as off right now ElyAs, zlefin, jarjarbinks, and Trfel have not a single scum read with justification between them. Instead what we have from them is a mass of neutral to townish reads that they aren’t willing to commit to, opting to wait for more posts from other people by asking for their reads. I have provided my prime scum read with justification. Of course rsoultin may just not be very good at the game, which is fine, but I’ll stand by my claim. The Shining’s scum read on zlefin isn’t without rationale, but I suspect the second mafia player to be one of the two inactive players. I do not have a solid town read, in fact it doesn’t make sense to, and stating you are neutral about that guy and that guy isn’t productive. Hier, if you are in fact town, this is not how you should be playing. I don't really want to lynch you at the moment, but if you keep posting like this, that could change very quickly. Just because some people haven't given scumreads yet doesn't mean that that is acceptable. | ||
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On February 16 2015 13:10 rsoultin wrote: I've already answered this, Trfel, lol. I'm getting more and more of a scum feel from Hier...though I do want to know what it is about Elyas' posting that JJB likes. He's making very little impact on me even after a second read-through. Kind of difficult to get any read on the two outliers. I have reasons to townread or at least put slight town leans on everyone but: Hier Elyas Silver Mime!replacement right now, so those would be the ones I'd lynch out of, all things remaining equal. Hier could still change my mind, but his reluctance to actually engage with not just me, but most of the rest of the thread, isn't sitting well. Hm, that's ironic, I just finished reading ElyAs's filter and deciding that I don't want to lynch him at the moment. I still feel that the events of the later portion of today (24 hour day, not mafia day) have been much more valuable then the preceding events. Thus, people's posting recently and in the future is probably much more important than posts before then. So I could see myself lynching ElyAs, zlefin, or Hier, depending on how they play over the next 18 hours or so. | ||
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On February 16 2015 13:48 Silverarte wrote: Curses Jarjar! You and this posting before others do thing! XD One question is what does BOD mean? (This is purely because I honestly don't know what this means). Two, impact or not, there's still a lot of reluctance in direct participation going on. This is bothersome. (Also, post to come with my work schedule and times I'll be around for you guys. =P) BOD is benefit of the doubt. I guess, Silverarte, I found some parts of your post kind of hard to understand. Like the part where you stopped your sentence in the middle. I was interested in hearing what you wanted to say there.... | ||
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On February 16 2015 13:57 Silverarte wrote: Oh shoot Trfel. Did I do that? I thought I fixed that. Give me just a moment and I'll fix that issue. Sorry about that! Please don't shoot me...... | ||
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Did you want my thoughts on Hier's opening, or my thoughts on the game in general? The latter, I would simply link a post I made towards the bottom of last page (could see myself lynching Hier, ElyAs, zlefin). Though if I get a chance to take a more detailed look, that could change. | ||
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On February 16 2015 14:10 Silverarte wrote: I did see your previous post on that. I wasn't sure if that had changed, so I did partly want to know that. But I'd love your thoughts on Hier's opening and after. I believe that Heir's suggestion has been talked about plenty. I don't think that people's responses to it are alignment indicative, except perhaps a townlean to jarjarbinks. As for Hier himself, perhaps a very slight townlean, but given the rest of his play so far, I could see myself lynching him, I suppose. | ||
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but why are you townreading The Shining? (not to disagree, but because I want to know) | ||
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On February 16 2015 14:28 rsoultin wrote: I didn't specify, so it's cool. I agree with JJB in that he's active and probing, though I'm not sure I agree with Shining on Zel...dude I can't remember people's names lol. To be honest, though, it's just a town lean, cause I'm still wary of him fooling me last game I played with him xP He just seems invested in the game this time. Allow me to start this by saying that I know basically nothing about The Shining's meta... Upon twice rereading The Shining's filter, I'm slowly becoming more inclined to scumread him. I guess I'm feeling half asleep, so maybe it isn't wise to post this now, but eh... I don't really like why he is immediately so suspicious of me. Just because I rolled scum in the last game he played? It just doesn't make sense, regardless of his alignment. I also feel that her read on rsoultin is rather weak. Rsoultin has (despite her statements to the contrary) shown that she has a capable scum game, so early game questioning and poking is entirely to be expected from her and I do not believe it is alignment indicative. Looking for a better reason. Then there is the townread on Hier for doing something unique early in the game, and I've already stated that I don't find it that alignment indicative. From there, The Shining starts a small push on zlefin. On February 16 2015 07:32 The Shining wrote: This just feels weak. Initially I felt that The Shining was actively making a read, just one that I disagreed with, but now I'm not so sure. I'm thinking that The Shining is better than this case. The things that are wrong with it:Zlefin has a couple of posts that lead nowhere and weak and unexplained reads. Mentions WIFOM, game voting rules, some parroting. Says Hier and RSo could both be town or both be scum but wont commit to his reads. Seems to be all for policy lynching inactives when there were only 2. How likely is it both scum members are inactive? Likely my leading candidate for a shot at D1 scum lynch.
On February 16 2015 12:11 The Shining wrote: The first part of this post is rather defensive. Even ignoring the fact that the suspicion answered in this post was already retracted, The Shining clearly doesn't want to be scumread. Obviously town also wants to be townread, but it still seems a bit strange. And I don't understand the last paragraph at all, it makes no sense. Is The Shining scumreading me or not, and why?JJB if you're most worried at first glance about Zf and myself, ask yourself this: Would I bus my partner D1 while no one but me is pressuring him? He's my top scumread with what's been put into the thread so far. And it might be WIFOM to think I'd light pressure him so that if he does ever flip scum, it'd buy me town cred. But if that was the case, I wouldn't have later commented on the fact that no one else commented on my Zfelin case. I forced it. Scum Shining would just leave it be and if he does flip, I'd be able to go "oh look I called that D1." So I'm now waiting on Hiers defense, JJbs top scumread and Ely to swing by with a little more than that. I'm assuming you (ElyAs) dozing off now means you'll revisit the RSo Hier exchange with fresh eyes in the morning? BEFORE EoD? For what its worth, Ely's last post was just a summary of the Hier Rso exchange, a parrot of my questioning Hiers lack of other leads, and an excuse for not giving us more. Trfel, I really truly hate walls of text. I saw you do it as scum and so did I. I'd scum you for that entire post if I didn't actually read it lmao. And I made that point in the hopes that it would inspire you to do so, Trfel, so I'm glad you obliged. You can see how I was setting it up to see if you were really going to catch up or afk it. And eh, in a game where everyone is on opposite ends of the activity spectrum(very actively posting or lurking along, no mid ground), I feel its my best shot. Policy lynch talk and weak reads and no other talk of lynches shows a disinterest...I know I'd be a bit disinterested if I rolled scum in a newbie game. Oh wait, I did. And I was. Last game. Lol. I guess this makes me want to add The Shining to my pool of "could potentially lynch on Day 1" people. Anyone care to give me a sanity check? | ||
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If what you really want is some space to go and focus on people other than rsoultin, I understand that. But if you don't adequately respond to the questions asked of you over the last several pages (or at least the more important ones) and fail to do anything else that makes you seem less scummy, I could very well vote for you. | ||
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On February 16 2015 14:54 rsoultin wrote: Shining is male. It's like "The Shining" with Jack Nicholson. Not relevant, but lol, I'm sure he's tired of being called a woman ^^ Ok good, I was scared for a second. Who else is female then? Now that it has been brought up, I'm scared that I am wrong..... | ||
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On February 16 2015 14:56 Hier wrote: Ok. I just noticed Trfel refer to him as "her". Did I really? I knew that The Shining was male. Ick, maybe I really ought to go to bed. My most sincere apologies to anyone who I used an incorrect pronoun for. | ||
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On February 16 2015 14:58 Trfel wrote: Did I really? I knew that The Shining was male. Ick, maybe I really ought to go to bed. My most sincere apologies to anyone who I used an incorrect pronoun for. Darn it, you're right, I actually called The Shining both "him" and "her" in the same post. Oh my. As much as I'd like to stay up and talk, that does it. Bedtime for me. And I'd probably better retract everything I said over the last hour or so for safety, I'll take another look at The Shining in the morning, when I am (hopefully) a little more sane. The Shining, I'm really quite sorry about that. | ||
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On February 16 2015 14:59 rsoultin wrote: Far as I know just silver and I, since mime is being replaced. I love how this thread has derailed xP Ok good, I thought it was Silverarte. Hier, any thoughts you have on the thread are appreciated. Even if you want to post a huge wall of null reads, I would appreciate that (rsoultin and The Shining would probably start screaming for your head, but I would look at the content first...). I'm sure that rsoultin would let up on you for the moment if you provide some content and scumhunting to the thread. Though I do need to reread my comments on The Shining in the morning, if anyone wanted to comment on The Shining (with or without reference to my comments), that would be appreciated. Good night. | ||
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On Hier, for now I am thinking that he is more likely to be town than scum. There is a definite difference between bad play and mafia, and while I don't see Hier's play as being particularly beneficial to town, I don't really see it being mafia-motivated. | ||
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On February 17 2015 00:24 rsoultin wrote: Truffle, time to test that mindmeld... what did you think I was doing with the push on Hier? Pretty sure you were creating pressure from very little to get the thread going. I didn't say that earlier because saying so would defeat the purpose, as people could then refuse to respond. Which is precisely the reason why Hier's case on you (rsoultin) falls apart. While the points he brought up are good points, this is the simple explanation from a town perspective. | ||
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On February 17 2015 00:30 rsoultin wrote: tere, why was mime (the player you replaced) nervous to post? xP Uh............ Tere, don't answer this question? XD | ||
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On February 17 2015 00:35 rsoultin wrote: Lol -amused- I wanted to see how flustered Tere got -flicks trfel- ruining my schemes ^^ You know very well why I posted that. No need to read my original post on The Shining, the new version is coming very soon. I still think we are largely in the same place. Just that we are interpreting the information slightly differently with regards to Hier. I'll take another look at Hier after I finish with The Shining. | ||
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On February 17 2015 00:35 zlefin wrote: Just want to be clear on what you're saying: you're saying you have a town read on him, which, given the baseline probability of 77% of him being town, you're placing the odds of him being town at higher than that? I ask because the statement "more likely to be town than scum" would technically be true of someone who had a 51% chance of being town. I don't mean to specify an exact percentage, but I generally meant the latter option. Basically, I mean to say that Hier doesn't look good, but (pending another reread) I don't really want to lynch him yet. | ||
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In addition to this, some of The Shining's other posts seem to show genuine scumhunting and thinking. So I am not entirely sure on The Shining. I would definitely like to hear people's thoughts, including The Shining's. | ||
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I'm fine with The Shining being suspicious of me. It's the reasoning for it that is strange. I'm fine with The Shining pushing zlefin. But the reasons and strange progression of the push seem off. Side note, I might actually be back right before the deadline. No guarantees, but I will do my best. Hopefully we won't be needing any last second vote switches, though. | ||
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On February 17 2015 01:07 rsoultin wrote: Can you outline what exactly is strange? I tried to do that already? Look at the quotes in the first and third spoilers I provided. I have no clue what read The Shining is giving me, and I don't understand the reasoning behind it, either. If you can explain it to me, then I will retract the point. The Shining described the push as a slight push, but also voted with it. This makes no sense. In addition, the case on zlefin seems to be more making something out of nothing than just a case that I disagree with. | ||
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On February 17 2015 01:18 rsoultin wrote: Eh, JJB kept ninjaing Shining, so Shining probably hadn't seen that he'd retracted the scumread already. The defense was still a bit over-the-top maybe? Yes, I know, I know, pot calling the kettle black lol xP I get growly when people use what I perceive to be false reasons to scumread me. I don't know, Truffle. Could be, but it's not screaming scum at me at the moment. Is he going to be your vote? Of course The Shining didn't know that jarjarbinks had retracted the comment. Even if he hadn't, the post was definitely more defensive than necessary. I don't yet know who I will end up voting for. I suppose Hier and The Shining probably seem like the best options at the moment? That said, I would like to hear more opinions on The Shining if possible, and I would like to hear more from The Shining and Hier (well, I'd like to hear more from everyone, but particularly those two...). | ||
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Hier opened up the game by posting his Bridges method. By advocating something with direct impact on all players, people naturally responded, and it turned out that the responses were mostly negative. It seems that this immediately frustrated Hier a bit, judging by the tone of his first post after that. (link if you want it) From there, Hier is bombarded with questions. This seems to frustrate him more, and he doesn't answer all of them. One answer that he does provide is that he has no reads, which obviously leads to a whole new wave of questions. Hier posts a scumread on rsoultin. (link if you want it) This read actually isn't all that bad. While rsoultin and I have already discussed why the points addressed here make perfect sense, from Hier's perspective, it doesn't make sense. It is normally expected that someone explains their pushes, not asks everyone else for their opinions. Regardless of Hier's alignment, he is clearly frustrated. This leads to his posts being more sarcastic and less responsive, leading to people scumreading him even more (I don't need to post links to posts where Hier is clearly frustrated, it is too obvious). This also would discourage Hier from providing reads. That's why I can see Hier's play coming from a townie. His play hasn't been good, but it isn't unreasonable. That said, if he doesn't do anything to change his play in the near future, he could very well be the best lynch for the day (at least, as I see it). Thoughts? | ||
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On February 17 2015 01:38 rsoultin wrote: Where you at on Tere, Truffle? I'm liking her, honestly lol ^^ Is Tere female? I don't think that it was specified? It would be much more convenient to have this answered, please. As for Tere's alignment, I don't know. I really don't know. This is why I didn't want Tere to answer your question. In addition to pushing (what I believe are) the rules, or at least their intentions, it provides bias that shouldn't be there for the sake of fairness. (side note, it could also be perceived as bluehunting, though I think that's a silly notion) Just posting this for reference, in case anyone else is wondering about Tere's previous mafia experience. Tere seems to have a reasonable grasp of the game, and what he/she is saying makes sense, but I need to look more closely to separate the logic from its implications on Tere's alignment. | ||
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On February 17 2015 01:44 zlefin wrote: I concur with your analysis on Hier trfel. Zlefin, who do you want to lynch now? (and yes, I read your previous list, if it is the same, then that is fine... unless of course you decide to lynch me, in which case I'll be pretty annoyed) | ||
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On February 17 2015 01:44 Trfel wrote: Is Tere female? I don't think that it was specified? It would be much more convenient to have this answered, please. As for Tere's alignment, I don't know. I really don't know. This is why I didn't want Tere to answer your question. In addition to pushing (what I believe are) the rules, or at least their intentions, it provides bias that shouldn't be there for the sake of fairness. (side note, it could also be perceived as bluehunting, though I think that's a silly notion) Just posting this for reference, in case anyone else is wondering about Tere's previous mafia experience. Tere seems to have a reasonable grasp of the game, and what he/she is saying makes sense, but I need to look more closely to separate the logic from its implications on Tere's alignment. To elaborate, my initial concern is that Tere's reads are more based on mafia ability than alignment indicative information. It is really easy to say why someone is wrong and call them mafia, or say that someone makes sense and call them town. But that isn't scumunting. I noticed that Tere's lynch list seems to definitely put those who have played more games higher on the list. | ||
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On February 17 2015 01:51 rsoultin wrote: For the record, I'm dropping the point in your first paragraph because I don't believe it serves any further purpose, not because I agree with you.Lol, truffle, maybe I'm missing a rule somewhere, but evaluating a player without considering the player they replaced seems foolish and not against the rules xP Interesting to know she's a bit more experienced, though (can kind of get that from how she's approaching the game, anyway). Mostly my liking her was based on how she's approached her reads. I'm asking you cause I know that a large portion of it is just I like her tone lol >< Me and my tonereads. Would you mind taking another look at Tere and start with the assumption that Tere is a reasonably experienced and capable mafia player? I will do the same. | ||
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On February 17 2015 01:52 Tere wrote: I'm not sure I understand this response that much. Town players have coaches too, and by the same logic, a town coach would have said the same thing? And if Hier's play hasn't seemed scum-motivated, why are you voting him?What I keep coming back to is that surely a scum coach and a scum QT would have persuaded Hier to drop the Bridges idea altogether, and / or nipped it in the bud if he posted it without consultation. Hier isn't being town helpful at the moment, but stubbornly sticking your neck out like Hier has isn't that helpful for a scum wincon.. I could be persuaded to another wagon, for sure. Just not sure I am seeing an obvious one. zlefin's filter also doesn't look appealing to me, but if this is their very first game that's equally a possibility for that. | ||
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If Hier really is mafia, I would expect to see some sort of counter push (unless it actually is a The Shining and Hier scumteam). This makes me even more hesitant to lynch Hier. It just really feels like a typical newbie game Day 1 mislynch. Tere, I don't know at the moment. And rsoultin, I'm really hesitant to lynch someone who is making sense when they have just replaced into the game. That seems silly. | ||
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On February 17 2015 01:52 Tere wrote: What I keep coming back to is that surely a scum coach and a scum QT would have persuaded Hier to drop the Bridges idea altogether, and / or nipped it in the bud if he posted it without consultation. Hier isn't being town helpful at the moment, but stubbornly sticking your neck out like Hier has isn't that helpful for a scum wincon.. I could be persuaded to another wagon, for sure. Just not sure I am seeing an obvious one. zlefin's filter also doesn't look appealing to me, but if this is their very first game that's equally a possibility for that. On February 17 2015 02:13 Tere wrote: I'm almost wondering if this is a scumslip. Why would a town player, particularly one who is new to TL Mafia (thus, probably unfamiliar with both coaching and scum QT's, though I have no clue what the other mafia sites play like so this could be wrong), think of the possibility of a player receiving help from a scum coach or a scum QT and only upon suggestion think of help from a town coach?You do have a point that town coaching should have picked up on that, too, though Trfel. Scum and town can be stubborn though *shrug* | ||
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I will be back later today, though again, I will be gone for a few hours leading up to the lynch deadline and possibly the deadline itself. I suppose I will throw my vote on Hier for now, though if someone else has a lynch that they think is better, I would really appreciate that. And I would still like thoughts from The Shining and Hier, in particular. | ||
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On February 17 2015 02:26 rsoultin wrote: I'm not going to afk vote. Please.Meh -_- Truffle Why you're fighting this Hier lynch so much, yet voting for him anyway and setting up for an AFK vote...it is not giving me the warm town fuzzies. I take full responsibility for my vote. I'm just letting you know that you may not have my support for a vote switch late in the day. I'm showing resistance for the Hier lynch for several reasons. The first being that there isn't many other people fighting it, and the lynch isn't as solid as I would like. The second is that if people have other ideas, I would really, really, like to hear them, and not have the lynch sealed up. The third is that if Hier does come back, if my "frustrated town" guess is correct, having some support would make him MUCH more likely to try and defend himself. | ||
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On February 17 2015 02:30 Tere wrote: Yes, that is a distinct possibility. I suppose it's also possible that Hier quit and told his partner to bus.Me neither. Lack of alternate wagon push = inexperienced scum partner? I know it's ridiculous, and I can't explain it, but Tere still seems suspicious to me. Her logic is fine, her reads are fine, her tone is comfortable and relaxed, but everything else seems really off. Just, please, keep an eye out... | ||
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On February 17 2015 02:31 Tere wrote: Trfel, why aren't you pushing for the Shining lynch, you built up a case on him? That wasn't so much a case, as a collection of thoughts. If it was a case, believe me that I would be pushing it, and you would know. Rsoultin, I don't see any reasonably appealing counterwagons to someone who isn't really defending himself. And I really do need to leave. Stop being so distracting. | ||
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I can't explain at all why Tere seems strange to me. It's completely irrational and illogical. I tried to make that clear. Thus, my request isn't that people lynch Tere, or that people scumread Tere, or even that people refrain from townreading Tere. My request is just to keep in mind that Tere could be mafia, and a very dangerous one, at that. Of course, like all paranoia, don't let it have a detrimental affect on the game, that is the point where paranoia is counterproductive. I would like to know why Hier is scumreading Tere, though. As for me making a counterwagon, I don't see anything that is better than lynching Hier at the moment. So while I have doubts about a Hier lynch, it is the best that I see right now. I'll check again to see if I missed anyone's questions to me. | ||
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On February 17 2015 05:18 Tere wrote: Trfel, since I think you are probably town and having a paranoia moment, how can I reach out to you and help with this? You could get killed on night 1 so I don't have to worry about it? In all seriousness, I am (or at least I like to think I am) a better player than to let it have a significant affect on my play. And I am typically suspicious when the general crowd does something quickly (in this case, townreading you). So, don't worry about me, I can take care of myself. Rsoultin, I don't really think it is necessary to say that you are more experienced than Hier. Someone can make amazing arguments in their first game ever, or horrible arguments in their hundredth game. Also, while I don't have trouble figuring out where you stand from your posts, I suppose it is possible that someone might. | ||
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On February 17 2015 05:26 rsoultin wrote: Read his case, Trfel. It was in response to his disclaimer xP The statement had nothing to do with who was or wasn't right. In fact, please read his entire case closely, since you haven't yet. I have in fact read it. He's stated that you could just be an inexperienced player at least once before. While I find this notion humorous, I still don't think that you needed to emphasize that you are more experienced than he is. Whatever, I guess it shouldn't be a big deal, and I shouldn't fuss over it. | ||
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On February 17 2015 05:34 rsoultin wrote: You're a better player than to get mislynched. Don't be silly. If we actually get enough votes to lynch you, you are going to flip scum, or you gave up on the game.Okay, maybe I didn't lol. I don't get where he's coming from as town...but as scum throwing that in there if he somehow does manage to mislynch me xP doubtful unless people just fall for the big shiny case strat...gives him something to go back to and say oops about. So I guess we're down to Hier or zlefin? And I really don't like a zlefin lynch. | ||
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On February 17 2015 05:40 Hier wrote: Jarjarbinks and rsoultin are related. Taking that into account, I see absolutely no problem with a temporary read in that manner.She was reaching with her initial assessments. She needed something to establish convincing player analyses. Saying jarjarbinks is likely a town player because of his spreadsheet? There was no spreadsheet. Similarly I could have said I made a spreadsheet, would I get points? Not to mention I corrected jarjarbinks's math in one of my posts. Calling you a "Known town or towny" because of your explanation of WIFOM for zlefin? Laughable. | ||
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On February 17 2015 05:41 rsoultin wrote: I guess I don't want to lynch The Shining at the moment. While I still believe that the things I brought up look scummy, as I stated at the time, several other parts of his filter look like real scumhunting.Unless you still want Shining? I could see him being scum, but I don't want him over Hier at present lol Nah, man, I've been mislynched twice. On the same day, ironically. It happens lol. But I was actually talking to intent. I expressly said how much I've played to Tere earlier, so it's not a secret -shrugs- Course, he could just not be reading. Were you actually mislynched twice on the same day??? I have some research to do. One of those was LYLO in Student Mafia V, right? | ||
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On February 17 2015 05:44 zlefin wrote: Yes trfel, I'd like to hear your opinion on jarjar. Jarjarbinks has always been strange to me. He likes to focus on numbers and purely logical ways to play mafia (which I don't believe is possible, but that's a discussion for another time and place). Especially on Day 1, I'm not used to seeing very much subjective scumhunting from jarjarbinks. Therefore, just because of his progression on the Bridges method and the simulations he ran, I am hesitant to lynch him on Day 1. Other than that, he has shown at least the level of scumhunting that I expect, so I really don't want to lynch him today. In addition, rsoultin is convinced that jarjarbinks is town, so that helps even more. | ||
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On February 17 2015 05:48 rsoultin wrote: On the contrary, that seems to be a rather good day for the mafia.Yup lol. It was most likely because I wasn't here to defend myself, but I was also hard-tunneled on Damdred who was town and there was a lot of OMGUS going on lol The other was on the other site Shining and I play on. There's a player called Mages...he and I are like each other's nemesis xP If we're different alignments it turns into an all-out brawl lol. But yeah, mislynched twice on the same day. It was not a good mafia day for me. Out of curiosity, how much time do you spend playing mafia per day, across all sites? | ||
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On February 17 2015 05:57 rsoultin wrote: It would be ideal if he admitted that he was scum so we could lynch him in peace. Sort of like Eden in Linux Mafia.What would be ideal, Trfel? I know you like to be pretty sure of your scumreads, but in the absence of surety... Also, not ignoring you, Hier. I disagree that her reads lack substance, but I've also been doing tonereads, so :/ Like, I think if someone seems easy and casual, that's usually a town tell, too. To be honest, that's the only lynch I haven't been apprehensive about, because he freaking claimed scum. It really is a problem of mine, I never see when a case is solid. Trying to work on it. | ||
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On February 17 2015 06:06 Hier wrote: Then he makes posts like these that make me not want to lynch him.... I'm so bad at this game XDThere is no avoiding me getting lynched, that has been established a long time ago. I am making last efforts for town to win once I'm gone. | ||
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I need to leave in about 6 minutes. I was late for lunch because I was playing mafia, not going to let that happen again. + Show Spoiler + I still think that a Hier lynch is significantly better, but it would be nice if someone wanted to take a closer look. Thanks in advance? | ||
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If someone wants to look into alternate wagons, though, I suggest ElyAs. Hier, if you are in fact town, I apologize. Mislynches happen. | ||
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On February 17 2015 06:22 ElyAs wrote: Hm, that's ironic timing.Came back a little earlier, I'll be there until EOD. I kinda agree with you that Hier is a lynch by default, either we find a better lynch or we make the most of it if he flips town. I'm gonna try to do the former by analyzing the posts since my last post. Plus, I didn't see anybody actively defending Hier, this is generally a sign of a mislynch if I'm not mistaken Trfel, saw your post as I was writing mine, I'm not satisfied with this lynch to be honest. I hope you're still around, do you want to ask me something ? If you prepare a nice list of reads and show your attentiveness and thinking about recent events, my (small) desire to lynch you will be removed. | ||
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Apologies to Hier. We tried our best. Anyway, I'm terribly sorry that I couldn't make it back for EOD as I had hoped, though it looks like it probably wouldn't have made much of a difference. | ||
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I know that this category includes me, and that's fine. Obviously it isn't foolproof, but I will keep it in mind when I look through what happened. I'm also going to be looking for people whose activity/scumhunting waned after we seemed set on a Hier lynch, since those people are more likely to be mafia. | ||
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On February 17 2015 10:18 Trfel wrote: Is anyone here to discuss things with? I know it's spammy, but the past several games I've found that it helps me to bounce ideas off of someone, in addition to providing encouragement for me to actually put effort. Lonely Trfel..... oh well, I'll do my best to motivate myself and share thoughts anyway. If someone wants to talk, just let me know. | ||
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On February 17 2015 10:00 Tere wrote: Oh, and just to be absolutely safe here....My sensei has taught me the ways of the database: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/390080-tl-mafia-database ctrl-F for the person whose filters you want to find. Having read Hier's other two VT games, I don't know if it would have helped any though. One was very short, the other filter read a lot more agreeable to me. (n.b. Hier, you could try proposing the Bridges idea as a playtest in the forum thread if you really want to try it out, perhaps? TL Mafia plays, like the Diplomacy thread?) Anyway, I am hoping some of you awesome people with evenings left will post thoughts in the thread. Back in a few hours  You aren't supposed to mention coaching at all in this thread. You could potentially be modkilled for it. Sorry for the quadruple post (bad Trfel), my thoughts are a bit disjointed. | ||
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Multitasking is fine, it's not like there is much activity here. What do you think about what I just posted about two things to look for for scum behavior over the past day (not scumhunting after the Hier lynch seemed set, and showing discontent with the Hier lynch)? Am I right in thinking those things, or not? Also, what do you think of my alignment at the moment? | ||
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On February 17 2015 06:24 Tere wrote: What does this mean? Cross-post above, naturally? If so, can someone please explain this to the weak-minded Trfel?xpost above, natch. On February 17 2015 10:55 rsoultin wrote: Think those are very good metrics and I doubt you bring them up when they paint you scum xP You may be that crafty, but I don't think so. You're right that I've always seen you waffle on votes at EoD lol. Rsoultin, I'm almost thinking that you are insulting me here | ||
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On February 17 2015 11:07 rsoultin wrote: I don't suspect zlefin. However, basically everyone else seems to. My read on zlefin is reasonably old at this point, so I definitely need to take another look.Lol, believe me, it's not. I actually don't think it's a flattering thing to be good at deceiving people Or for people to believe you're good at it.Do you disagree with my gut reads? | ||
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On February 17 2015 07:10 rsoultin wrote: Wait, why would you do this?Admittedly I've been lurking for the last hour or so, to see what happens when I've stepped back from the thread. | ||
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On February 17 2015 11:19 rsoultin wrote: Hm, that's a good idea. But I'm right, and everyone else is wrong, I don't want to let them run the thread To get perspective and see how they played when I wasn't there, honestly. One of the biggest problems I have is getting too locked in to certain thoughts. My best reads usually come when I'm least involved lol >< | ||
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Thanks very much to responding to my comments. I like that response a lot. It seems that a lot of my suspicions were just me misinterpreting something that you said. There is a reason that I wasn't pushing for your lynch, but was instead voicing some thoughts. | ||
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No, rsoultin, I'm not mocking you. I really am extremely opinionated. And I enjoy arguments, so when I play mafia I have to be careful to avoid arguing for the sake of arguing (I've almost taken some really strange stances just so that I could argue something original....). | ||
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On February 17 2015 11:41 rsoultin wrote: Sorry, I'm just venting general frustrations. No point really. But the game feels like a really easy environment for scum to hide and pick on easy targets.There aren't too many varied opinions this game, but I fail to see the point you're driving at, trfel? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + And no, I'm not necessarily saying that Tere is scum, but just that I will look into it. There's a big difference, people always seem to misunderstand me when I say I'm investigating someone. | ||
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On February 17 2015 12:01 Silverarte wrote: Reads in general would be nice. Specifically, what do you think of Tere, and why?I'm finally back from work! Catching up now. In the meantime (while I go through pages and figure out what all I missed) any questions for me in the meantime? | ||
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On February 17 2015 12:15 Silverarte wrote: I decided he wasn't a good Day 1 lynch and haven't put all that much thought into it since. I did like his response to my suspicions of him. Overall, I can definitely see how is play is town motivated, though he certainly isn't cleared yet.Sure, I'll get right on that. Also, since I don't think I've gotten there yet in the pages (only on page 17) what did you end up thinking of The Shining this round? | ||
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On February 17 2015 12:25 Silverarte wrote: Don't worry about it, I'm by far the slowest player here. Still typing up my thoughts on Tere. I'm starting to wonder if I am going insane, once I finish it would be nice if a few people could give me a sanity check.Hmm. Alright. I'm almost done catching up on the reading (five more pages to go? Six?) I'm going to start filter diving, so it's going to take me a bit. So I'm here! Just putting thoughts together. | ||
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Finally, a few thoughts to Tere (if she is in fact town). + Show Spoiler + Tere. You're obviously a capable mafia player, and you have been entertaining and enthusiastic so far. I like this a lot. But for all of your experience, your reads seem simple, as if you are stating reads that feel natural and easy, as opposed to actually trying to determine someone's alignment, which is much harder. I hope you can see where I am coming from. At this point, it's not paranoia, I am voicing suspicions and I expect you to take me seriously and answer them. | ||
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Slightly unrelated, I would appreciate thoughts on the formatting of my previous post. Is that more understandable and easier to read than a wall of text version? | ||
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Rsoultin, which parts of zlefin's play do you have problems with? I noticed that Tere posted her scumread of zlefin fairly early on, and this time happens to be exactly at the end of Page 1 in zlefin's filter. So over half of zlefin's play, presumably including the part that you found suspicious if it was near EOD, was after Tere made this read. Silverarte, by no means do I advocate lynching Tere immediately. I want to see how people respond, and in particular, I want to see Tere's response. Of course I will look in to other lynch options for tomorrow, but I don't feel like doing so at this very moment. | ||
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On February 17 2015 09:31 Tere wrote: Tere didn't post her own reflections, in fact she seemed to avoid doing so. Why does she want everyone to respond and post their top two scumreads, without doing anything herself? I understand what rsoultin did early in the game, when nothing was happening, it made sense. But now, if you want to get discussion and reads, the best way to do it is to go investigate people and post your findings. Not to ask for reads without sharing your own insight.It would be awesome if the non Euros posted some reflections (and insomniac Euros). The Shining, Silverarte, zlefin and ElyAs, I'd particularly like to hear from you. (Yes I know ElyAs is in France. Shut up). Actually, I'd like to know everyone's top two scum picks right now. Cases would be awesome Sleep tight! xx | ||
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To the mafia team: + Show Spoiler + I like music, what can I say? I think I'm allowed a moment of levity every so often. | ||
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On February 17 2015 14:05 rsoultin wrote: Eh, I'm curious, but that makes sense. Especially seeing how my late night posting went last night. Can you at least provide hints as to what you are thinking about? My curiosity has been piqued...So, like, I totes have quotes and stuff, but I'm kinda tipsy so I'm not gonna inflict that on y'all right now lol >< you don't mind if it waits till morning, do you, truffle wuffle? | ||
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I'll catch up tomorrow. Good night (well, good morning to you Europeans and sane Americans), and happy scumhunting. | ||
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On February 17 2015 14:16 rsoultin wrote: Ah, I see. That makes sense. I'll definitely take a look at that tomorrow, looking forward to your thoughts. Most people seem to be suspicious of zlefin, so that's the next priority for me.He was asking weird questions imo...about who he should be voting for even though he thought that hier was scum. for information purposes or somethin' Then went all quiet after I said just vote for his scumread since there were 2hrs left. Something else about not wanting to change votes a lot. Seemed very concerned about perception there at the end and his vote on Hier was very half-hearted, dunnae. Yup. I think I commented on it in my filter actually. Side note, why do my useless posts always top the page..... oh well. | ||
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On February 17 2015 22:20 zlefin wrote: I commented on it a few posts later.I'm disliking that Tere keeps asking people for their top two kills without having said her own. Feels like probing for information to join a wagon without committing; I think someone else already noted this as a potential issue, but I forget who, and it's not where I thought it would be (in trfels analysis post). I refuse to provide my top two kills until Tere actually does some scumhunting of her own. Scumhunting is one thing, but I am not going to scumhunt in the manner someone else tells me to for no reason. Why do I think that Tere wants everyone to provide their top two kills? Maybe to know where everyone stands, maybe to choose the best night kill for the mafia. Either way, you can use someone's filter to mostly figure out where everyone stands, and I would prefer the emphasis to be on cases and scumhunting than making everyone share their top kills. Note that the last time I saw someone make everyone share their top scumreads was when I was shadowing Artanis[Xp] in Imperial Mafia. He was mafia. | ||
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On February 17 2015 09:31 Tere wrote: Wait, Tere, this is your lynch pool?It would be awesome if the non Euros posted some reflections (and insomniac Euros). The Shining, Silverarte, zlefin and ElyAs, I'd particularly like to hear from you. (Yes I know ElyAs is in France. Shut up). Actually, I'd like to know everyone's top two scum picks right now. Cases would be awesome Sleep tight! xx | ||
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On February 17 2015 19:57 Tere wrote: I get the sense that you are continually misinterpreting what I say, both here and other places. I clearly don't mean that anyone doing these things is sure scum, since I myself am probably the first player who comes to mind when you think of these things (and no, I'm not calling myself scum). I still think that these things are likely things for a scum player to do, though obviously quite possible to come from town. You can't expect me to have a 100% way to catch mafia.OK, reading through post lynch. I went to bed almost straight after, FWIW. With the first point, personally, I feel you are stretching a little there. I don't have an issue with indecision, and don't consider it a scum tell. It's very towny to be indecisive and change your reads and backtrack - I do it all the time. Yes, there's reasons that scum do it too, and distancing is one of them, but I wouldn't charge full pelt down the rabbit hole here. | ||
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On February 17 2015 22:56 zlefin wrote: To be fair, Tere is right, there are plenty of good reasons. There are also several bad ones. While the bad generally outweighs the good, I would still prefer people to play the game as they see fit. If they only have one scumread, so be it. If they have three, so be it. I am more interested in seeing reasoning than lists, as this seems to encourage. I almost feel that constantly badgering everyone for two scumreads gets in the way more than it helps.that strikes me as rude. If you have a good reason, you should provide it. It feels like instead you want someone to come up with something that you can then say "yeah that was it", when you can't think of a good reason yourself. On the bright side, it's a really nice way for Tere to look productive without scumhunting. | ||
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I will preface this by saying that for a mafia player to put themselves in a position where there is no possible town explanation for their actions, they have to really, really, really screw up. There will basically never be a time where you will get a case on mafia (excluding roles/setup/strong vote case) that can't be explained away. The question is, how much suspicion is there, and how reasonable is the explanation.
Tere, given these events, I don't think you can argue that you shouldn't be given some suspicion. Accept it and move on. Of course you can provide a logical town explanation, but if that criteria was used, town would basically never lynch anyone. | ||
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On February 17 2015 23:35 zlefin wrote: You do realize that you are at the top of most people's suspicions, right?I will try to be a little more detailed. But the points again are really more for my own use than for others, and I only copy/paste because it's easy to do so. Unfortunately, at the moment you are probably the top Day 2 lynch candidate. Fortunately for you, there is a lot of time to change this. Explaining where you get your reads is crucial for not being lynched, as without that there is absolutely no way for town to know if you are actually scumhunting or not. In addition, the more explanation you provide, it promotes more discussion, which is good. You can't be expected to solve the game by yourself, I am under the impression that even the very, very best players would have trouble doing so. Thus, we really appreciate hearing your thoughts, and simply seeing an unexplained tally of who you feel is scummy doesn't really help. I really need to do some homework. I'll check in later today. | ||
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On February 17 2015 23:48 zlefin wrote: Do you mind maybe taking a look at someone's filter and recording your thoughts as you go through, and then posting all of your thoughts and your conclusion?I do realize that, but there's only so much I can do about that. I already explained my reads as best I could, often there wasn't anything I could point to back it up, it was just my impression. It is what it is and I can't change that. If people don't want to believe that I can't help that. If I had thoughts I'd share them, and I have. Often I just don't. I can't give you what isn't there. | ||
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On February 18 2015 00:20 rsoultin wrote: Wait, I think I'm missing something here. Can you let me join the in-crowd?Firstly, if you're hinting at what I believe you're hinting at, Tere, use your best judgment and your coach. You don't need everyone else's reads to do it. Put on those big girl pants xP Do you think that Tere is suggesting that everyone is scumreading zlefin? Or what? | ||
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On February 18 2015 00:24 rsoultin wrote: I thought we were friends.....Not the time truffle. I'll let you in later, I promise ^^ Time to take a break from zlefin's filter and attempt to figure this out. | ||
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On February 18 2015 00:31 rsoultin wrote: Oh. I see what you are saying now.Lol we're absolutely friends. You're a smart guy. I'm sure you'll figure it out ^^ I don't like where this is going at all. Rsoultin, you didn't happen to be in the Hammertime obs chat, did you? | ||
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On February 18 2015 00:35 rsoultin wrote: Do you mind reading the obs QT again? There's a certain part of it that I believe is somewhat applicable here. My point is, you're walking on really dangerous ground, and tread carefully. I'm worried that I'm not going to be here tomorrow, so I'm trying to say all that I can now.....Ummm, I did but I stopped following it after about the first day. | ||
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On February 18 2015 00:37 Trfel wrote: Eh, on second thought, never mind. I'm not thinking clearly.Do you mind reading the obs QT again? There's a certain part of it that I believe is somewhat applicable here. My point is, you're walking on really dangerous ground, and tread carefully. I'm worried that I'm not going to be here tomorrow, so I'm trying to say all that I can now..... | ||
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I blame you for my own blunders. | ||
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See what I was getting at earlier? It's really, really hard for me to trust others XD | ||
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On February 18 2015 00:50 rsoultin wrote: I have a big post on zlefin coming up in the near future. (anyone who knows me well should know that this probably means in like 5 hours)Well, let's ignore it for the time being. I want to play a game with zlefin ;o; I think the problem with his point system/reads may just be that he's having trouble articulating things in his first game. Especially when things are gut/tone reads it can be hard to put it into words. I completely sympathize with him if that's the case. I sympathize with him a ton, too. While his play definitely seems scummy at first, it could also just be a town player trying to figure out how to play the game (not to be insulting, I'm still trying to figure out how to play the game, too). | ||
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Anyway, my updated and long overdue read on zlefin. On February 15 2015 22:58 zlefin wrote: I maintain that this post seems townie to me. What I see here is pure honesty. Obviously, having unexplained reads is bad, so zlefin wouldn't want to admit this. A mafia!zlefin might have even preferred to make up reasons than to admit that he has no really explainable reasons. Of course, when unexplained reads are used again and again, that could be a problem.I can't explain my reads well, they're only quite mild reads at this point. For Trfel, it's partly a tonal read, and partly that he's encouraging discussion and trying to get things going. So he's either town, or a well-played (and hence dangerous) scum. For jarjar, it's just an impression, I can't really explain why. On February 16 2015 02:56 zlefin wrote: This was one of the first things that people commented on for zlefin being scum. I disagree that this is scummy. He is providing two townreads with some reasoning. As for the last three sentences of the post, he's not really casting doubt on his reads, he is just being a cautious and paranoid townie. Again, this feels more like town than scum.yeah, I've seen Princess Bride. I'm inclined to take the prior page of discussion as minor evidence of Hier and Rsoultin being town. For Hier, it seems like too complicated a plan for a scum to want to put forth. for rsoultin he was putting forth good reasons for town to dislike the plan with good analysis. Or it could be a plot by the two of them (both being scum) to make themselves both look like town through such an exchange. So I want to make a note of possible link between the two. I think this very unlikely though. On February 16 2015 21:14 zlefin wrote: This is the first post where zlefin shows his method of keeping a tally and using it to judge people's alignments. At this point, we can figure out (presumably) why he gave everyone the number he gave them.Ok, I've reviewed the thread to date, and here's the score sheet I keep with my running tally estimates on town/scumminess, positive numbers are town, negative numbers are scum; the denominator represents the number of total read points for that person. i.e. each time I get a feel, I add or subtract one from the ongoing tally. Trfel 1/1 Shining rsoultin 1/1 elyas jarjar -2/2 mimeux hier 0/2 silver with mimeux out, and his replacement not yet in, I don't expect to get enough information on the replacement to have a read on them by voting time. I remain concerned about silver having no posts on the first real life day, and overall activity level. Now I gotta go back, find jarjars question to answer it, and then maybe review the people I don't have any read on to see if I can find something. my current lynch candidates are jarjar, hier, silver, trfel. The reason for trfel is that I feel trfel is a high information lynch. If he's scum, he's a skilled scum; and there's a lot of discussion between trfel and others, if I could go back through those discussions with the lynch knowledge of his alignment, I think that would provide a lot of other leads one way or the other. I think it would provide more information than anyone else's lynch. I (Trfel) recieved 1/1 for encouraging discussion. Rsoultin received 1/1 for analysis on Hier's bridges plan. Jarjarbinks received -2/2 for a bad impression and a statement zlefin thought was scummy. Hier received 0/2 for proposing his Bridges plan and making a post with lots of fancy words but little actual substance. Zlefin's list corresponds precisely with his filter to this point. Thus, I feel that it is safe to assume that the future updates to his list are also based on reads he actually made, and he isn't changing the numbers randomly. There really is no good reason to doubt this. Zlefin also advocates lynching me (Trfel) because it would give him a lot of information. This is a silly idea, and would never actually happen. That aside, it doesn't strike me as a scummy thing to say. Since I have zero chance of being lynched for this reason, it seems strange that mafia!zlefin would suggest this as a way to get town!Trfel lynched. Given how ridiculous that is, I can accept the alternate explanation that he really felt that knowing my alignment would help him make a lot of reads. For those of you who still doubt this, remember that attacking someone with a large thread presence generally isn't something that mafia wants to do. Thus, there is very little, if any, reason for this to be mafia motivated. Now, for zlefin's vote on Hier. I see where zlefin is asking town what he should do with his vote, but if you read the reasoning, it seems like he is actually thinking about the possibilities. While it is true that he is asking town what his end result should be, he has provided thoughts and set the framework. He has also made it clear that he isn't just going to do what everyone else tells him to do, but he wants other people's thoughts to take into consideration. The post I refer to is here. As for disliking changing votes, while sometimes considered poor play, this isn't scummy. Correctly using one's vote is rather difficult, and in my current play, I basically only vote late in the day for the person I want lynched, and then maybe change it at the last minute if town is switching (probably not). It's suboptimal, but not an indication of being scum. What I see here is more of a new, inexperienced townie who is extremely cautious, to the point where it hurts his play. While looking at his actions and reads alone makes him look extremely scummy, I get the impression from his tone and his reasoning that it isn't mafia-motivated. | ||
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I'm not saying that he is town. I'm saying that I don't yet see much reason to call him scum. I'm sure that some people remember what I just said to Tere a few pages ago, that there is almost always a town explanation for someone's behavior, but that doesn't make them town. And what I have done is provided a town explanation for zlefin's behavior. My point is, weigh the validity of the initial points against the validity of the explanation. And in this case, I find the explanation to be reasonable enough that I don't want to lynch zlefin at this time. That said, it is still very important to watch zlefin and follow his reads. If he shows actual scumhunting and critical thinking, he is probably fine. If he fails to do this, maybe he should be considered for the lynch. | ||
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On February 18 2015 01:18 rsoultin wrote: You townread him. Given my experience in previous games with him, I townread him too (especially given your townread). For much of the game, we have had two of the larger thread presences. We sort of brushed aside suspicions of him, so that would be our fault.Actually, lol, our case-maker just found your reasons in your filter, Zlefin, but if you do want to play the game anyway, just let me know ^^ Nah, Truffle, it was only his later play that was bugging me, anyway. His point system reminds me of my brother's lol. Speaking of paranoia...JJB isn't getting scumread this game. Seems like a dumb reason to find him scummy, but usually everyone is like JJB, scummiest of scum! Am I nuts? I certainly expect to see his play pick up on Day 2 (it normally does, right?). But for now, I don't think I see anything to indicate that he is any more scummy than normal. | ||
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On February 18 2015 01:30 Tere wrote: I hope you understand if I refuse to play along. I will make reads, and I will make them clear, but I don't see a need to effectively quantify them and say what my two strongest scumreads are.I will explain all in Day 2 should I survive, if you wish. You are just going to have to go with me here until then. I'm trying a thing. I saw it work quite well for someone in a recent game. I play lynch by lynch, without taking into account associative reads. Stating my two strongest scumreads at this time does absolutely nothing to focus for the next lynch, for which we will have much more time to prepare and (hopefully) a bunch of new information to use. | ||
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On February 18 2015 02:07 Tere wrote: The database is not updated frequently, unfortunately. It's more effective to view someone's profile to find their previous games.rsoul or Silver or Jarjar (or whoever really), can you link me to any games Silverarte has played in? I don't see anything in the database for her? Ta muchly. It appears that her only previous game was Newbie Mini Mafia LX. She was the town cop. | ||
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On February 18 2015 02:05 zlefin wrote: I wouldn't describe jarjarbinks as a happy clown, but rsoultin would (hopefully) know better than I would.Do others concur with rsoultin's description of JJB? I ask because I don't want to base any changes entirely off this in the unlikely event the two of them are mafia. If others concur with the description, I'm going to give a positive point to JJB, based on rsoultins comments in the last page, which also help reassess JJBs early game (in particular his joke which I didn't like, more info on its normalcy for him ameliorates it). For the purposes of a mafia game, I see jarjarbinks as an extremely analytical player, perhaps to the point where it is detrimental to his play. There are no substitutes for old-style scumhunting. Jarjarbinks tends to focus on purely objective things like vote counts, roles, setup, and in this game, the Bridges method. As a result, jarjarbinks doesn't post an abundance of traditional reads, which does lead to him often being scumread. | ||
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On February 18 2015 03:02 Tere wrote: Haha, be careful when you use meta Actually that's more than helpful, since it has more than half the current game in it! The first notable thing I ever did in a mafia game was post a huge case with maybe 5 lines of actual case and then pages and pages of meta. It didn't go so well, but since then I have greatly reduced my usage of meta. | ||
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On February 18 2015 03:12 Tere wrote: Please don't remind me....Of course. Trfel, have you rolled scum yet anywhere? Student Mafia V. What a nightmare that was. I should probably go thank the cop for red checking me to get it over with more quickly. | ||
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ElyAs, I noticed that your activity died off a bit after the End of Day. Is it possible to get more recent thoughts, specifically with regards to zlefin and Silverarte? | ||
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And I don't want to kill you... at least not yet. | ||
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On February 18 2015 07:36 The Shining wrote: Hm? I've stated several times, very clearly, why I am currently thinking that you are town. If I didn't, well, it's in my Word document awaiting posting one minute before Day 2. In summary, you made a good response, and most of my initial comments (I hesitate to call it a case, it really wasn't) turned out to be misinterpretations.Oh, another thing. Trfel, care to address something for me? I forgot to bring this up earlier. When you cased me, you left yourself a little disclaimer that it was late and you'd revisit it in the morning. You also asked for a sanity check on me. You also came back the next day, cased me again and once I gave you an adequate response(which I'm not seeing many others sold on it), basically left it alone. Now you're not so sure on Tere's read on me, which is your case shrunken down(don't like the opening, defensive), but the fact remains it was originally your case. | ||
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On February 18 2015 07:36 The Shining wrote: Oh. The whole post was about me. Sorry, I took a nap and just woke up a minute ago, I'm still waking up.Oh, another thing. Trfel, care to address something for me? I forgot to bring this up earlier. When you cased me, you left yourself a little disclaimer that it was late and you'd revisit it in the morning. You also asked for a sanity check on me. You also came back the next day, cased me again and once I gave you an adequate response(which I'm not seeing many others sold on it), basically left it alone. Now you're not so sure on Tere's read on me, which is your case shrunken down(don't like the opening, defensive), but the fact remains it was originally your case. So what exactly changed your mind about me? You say things you brought up about me are scummy. But see some real scumhunting in my filter. At that point, it seems you may have been fishing to see general thread sentiment about me. Now Tere during night phase brings up the same thing and you're unsure about her scumreading me? Are you trying to distance yourself from a 2nd mislynch? Also, you were vocally against the Hier lynch. Trying to get some deniability for the inevitable mislynch you knew was coming? And you were really defensive about how suspicious I was of you from the very beginning of the game. You also seem to think you're invincible(one of your posts mentioned you'd never be lynched due to filter size) when all townies are equally likely to die. Yeah, I'll be back with thoughts on Tere and a possible case on Truffle. Rereading your filter better be super townie to me. I don't see myself as unlynchable due to filter length, I like to think that I am unlynchable because I have been consistently providing content and reads and because I know that I am town and refuse to be lynched. Filter length means nothing, as many of my posts haven't been particularly useful. That said, I do have a reasonable thread presence, and so it is silly to lynch me without good reasoning (which I strongly doubt will ever arise, since I am town). To clarify, your response to my suspicions on you was very good, in my opinion. So I dropped my suspicions. While I was against the Hier lynch, I take responsibility for my vote. It was my decision, and though I wasn't happy with it, I chose what I thought was best at the time. I also know that I am basically never happy with a lynch, even when I had created a case which basically everyone said was a slam dunk case (in fact, I switched off of the wagon that I led, which carried on without me to lynch the mafia). Rsoultin already stated that I am never sure of my vote, and that really is true. | ||
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On February 18 2015 07:50 The Shining wrote: Is it not wrong to allow for the possibility that being sleepy could negatively affect my play? In the past, I've usually played fine while extremely tired, but in my last game I made a terrible blunder at about 4:30 AM. I don't see sleepiness as being a problem to hold back my reads for, but it would be silly to not mention it as a possibility. As for distancing myself from my scumread of you, it was NOT a scumread. I found a few things I felt were suspicious, and I wanted to hear thoughts from you and other people. Believe me, if I am scumreading someone, I will make it absolutely sure that everyone knows.Yeah but in it you posted a bit where you said I mentioned my push on Zlef was "slight" as if I were trying to distance myself from the lynch? Which is exactly what you did in that same post by saying you were sleepy and might need to revisit it. And you, you haven't actually CLEARLY stated it, or I wouldn't be pinging on it. This was your reasoning: So you guess you don't want to lynch me but things still look scummy but things look like real scumhunting, too. It just felt too inconsistent to me. Some things you did looked scummy, some things you did looked fine. I concluded that the result didn't make me want to lynch you at that time. Is that a problem? | ||
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Oh well, that was why my read changed. If you would like, I can probably go back and reconstruct my thought process at the time. | ||
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On February 18 2015 08:07 rsoultin wrote: Ah, thanks. There it is.You did, Truffle. Close to EoD I think. On February 17 2015 11:24 Trfel wrote: Ok, I definitely owe The Shining a response. Thanks very much to responding to my comments. I like that response a lot. It seems that a lot of my suspicions were just me misinterpreting something that you said. There is a reason that I wasn't pushing for your lynch, but was instead voicing some thoughts. | ||
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On February 18 2015 07:58 rsoultin wrote: I actually find this quite interesting. I'll take another look at The Shining's filter. Is it possible to get a response to this from The Shining?Shining, I have a problem with you, actually ^^ You have this wonderful way of conveniently being absent at key points when you're scum. Telling us you're going to read 10 pages then oops, just gonna sheep instead. Now, I know this can happen, but you really milked these sorts of things your last scum game. Are Tere and Trfel your scumreads right now? (Note that I have not yet succeeded in actively following a game I have not been playing in and actually alive in. I barely, if ever, checked on Student Mafia V between the time where I died and the end of the game. Soon enough I hope to learn how to follow games without playing in them.) | ||
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On February 18 2015 08:31 jarjarbinks wrote: You haven't been very active in the night, have you.Hey guys I just got back and read everything. I'll go back and answer questions before I filterdive. I'll do the one-two bullet thing before EON just in case mafia doesn't like starwars lol That makes me a little suspicious. I still don't see much reason to scumread you right now, but tomorrow I am expecting more from you. | ||
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On February 18 2015 08:39 jarjarbinks wrote: Who are the four you are looking at? And why?It's OK i'm suspicious of you too lol Only question I see on second glance is the two bullet thing so i'll chime in in a few minutes let me go read up a little on some filters before I narrow 4 to 2 | ||
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On February 18 2015 08:50 jarjarbinks wrote: Better work quickly You Tere Elyas and Silver were my top four based on day 1 votes. Looking through filters I'm shooting Elyas and Tere. I'll explain those first. In case I die: It's been a fun Day 1/Night 1, albeit somewhat stressful and frustrating. I don't actually feel like we are completely hopeless, we have stuff to work with, we have some critical thinking and town feels to be working much, much better than in Newbie Mafia LX. I'm actually finding myself excited to see what happens next, and how people proceed. Good luck, and happy scumhunting! Serious post will follow in a few minutes. | ||
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Yet Another Post from Long-Winded Trfel This post serves as a summary of my reads and the direction that I believe that town should go in. Take note that I tend to go lynch by lynch, and try to choose the best lynch given the information at the time. So I will not tell town who to lynch, as the coming 48 hours could likely provide plenty of reasons why a different lynch is preferred. That said, here are my general thoughts and reads, I hope they are somewhat useful. I didn't get to Silverarte, sorry. This is largely because of her late entrance to the thread, I don't feel that she has left enough to get a solid read at this point. And also because I'm tired and lazy, and the deadline is coming up.
Good luck, all. It's been a fun game. | ||
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Rsoultin, I'll take a look at your filter and your reads. I still think that we are mostly in the same place, though. | ||
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On February 18 2015 09:05 rsoultin wrote: Thanks, we'll need it. To be fair, you played an absolutely killer D1/N1.>< sorry guys for that terrible goodbye post glhf <3 I'm going to be lonely without you here  Who else would stay up until 4 AM dealing with my crazy thoughts? | ||
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Part of me is wondering if rsoultin was killed to help hide a mafia!jarjarbinks. I'm not at all confident in reading a Day 2 jarjarbinks, in the past I've just used rsoultin for that read. Still, though, rsoultin seemed pretty convinced that jarjarbinks is town, so I guess I'll work with that for now. | ||
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On February 18 2015 09:12 Trfel wrote: Jarjarbinks, it would be great if you would make yourself extremely clear town so I don't have to worry about this. Can you do that for me?Sorry for the post spam. My thoughts are coming more randomly at the moment. Part of me is wondering if rsoultin was killed to help hide a mafia!jarjarbinks. I'm not at all confident in reading a Day 2 jarjarbinks, in the past I've just used rsoultin for that read. Still, though, rsoultin seemed pretty convinced that jarjarbinks is town, so I guess I'll work with that for now. | ||
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On February 18 2015 09:26 The Shining wrote: I'm not scum. I could write a book on why I'm not scum. I don't think that is necessary, and I'm hoping that my filter speaks for itself.I'm having trouble with that, too, Trfel. I'm also having trouble with her last few reads. Pretty drunk off of WIFOM. Was she killed to immortalize your town read or frame me with her suspicions? In my experience, scum likes to kill a strong townie after they strong town a scum player. Student Mafia V, we killed GB right after he strong towned me. Trfel, you're not doing that again, are you? I'm taking a break to go eat dinner but something isn't sitting right with that RSo kill. I'll be back. There are several reasons for why rsoultin was killed. I will list all of them. [list][*]Rsoultin has been a very solid townread for basically everyone, if not everyone (I will check and see if anyone was not townreading rsoultin). In addition, she's played really well for Day 1 and Night 1. [*]Rsoultin has had the biggest filter, and also been the most important at generating discussion. If mafia recognized this, the night kill makes a lot of sense to reduce the activity of town. [*]Doctor save dodge (please please please don't take offense! I doubt that this is the case, and even if this was the reason for the night kill, then the mafia are stupid. But if I'm going to be listing all of the reasons for a night kill, this has to be included.) [*]Clear some of the pressure on mafia players. [*]Make town mislynch a townie who rsoultin was targeting, since town thought that they were trying to take the pressure off of them. Ironically, I don't think it is wise for mafia to kill someone who is townreading them to keep the townread saved away for future use. It's more useful to have that player continually state that they are townreading the mafia in the thread My point is, night kill analysis is WIFOM. Guessing the reason for the night kill is extremely difficult to do that I don't think it is worth the effort. What is worth the effort is rereading rsoultin's filter and how everyone has read/interacted with rsoultin, given the information that rsoultin is town. I'm probably going to skim-read the entire thread, and take a detailed look at everything mentioning rsoultin. | ||
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On February 18 2015 09:33 Trfel wrote: I guess I deserve that for not previewing it first. I hope it's still clear enough to read.I'm not scum. I could write a book on why I'm not scum. I don't think that is necessary, and I'm hoping that my filter speaks for itself. There are several reasons for why rsoultin was killed. I will list all of them. [list][*]Rsoultin has been a very solid townread for basically everyone, if not everyone (I will check and see if anyone was not townreading rsoultin). In addition, she's played really well for Day 1 and Night 1. [*]Rsoultin has had the biggest filter, and also been the most important at generating discussion. If mafia recognized this, the night kill makes a lot of sense to reduce the activity of town. [*]Doctor save dodge (please please please don't take offense! I doubt that this is the case, and even if this was the reason for the night kill, then the mafia are stupid. But if I'm going to be listing all of the reasons for a night kill, this has to be included.) [*]Clear some of the pressure on mafia players. [*]Make town mislynch a townie who rsoultin was targeting, since town thought that they were trying to take the pressure off of them. Ironically, I don't think it is wise for mafia to kill someone who is townreading them to keep the townread saved away for future use. It's more useful to have that player continually state that they are townreading the mafia in the thread My point is, night kill analysis is WIFOM. Guessing the reason for the night kill is extremely difficult to do that I don't think it is worth the effort. What is worth the effort is rereading rsoultin's filter and how everyone has read/interacted with rsoultin, given the information that rsoultin is town. I'm probably going to skim-read the entire thread, and take a detailed look at everything mentioning rsoultin. I'll be off for a while, but I am determined to get this next lynch right. | ||
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On February 18 2015 09:22 jarjarbinks wrote: Jarjarbinks, are you still there? Did you finish reading Tere yet?Lol you've been in my past games. I think I'm getting better but who knows. I'm workin up my Tere right now but im free to chat with after | ||
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On February 18 2015 10:38 jarjarbinks wrote: You said you were going to provide thoughts on Tere. Do you have them ready?Sorry I just got back. Whatsup? | ||
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Last game The Shining played, he was mafia. I was also in that game, and I was mafia. I opened with a controversial opening that made me the center of attention. This game, I opened with a controversial opening again, which made me the center of attention for the first page or so (not very long). The Shining was suspicious of me, as expected. However, he townread Hier for proposing the Bridges method because it put him in the spotlight. Hrm. On February 17 2015 04:25 rsoultin wrote: I guess that takes a lot of the steam out of the mafia!jarjarbinks idea. Then again...He's calling me mean ;o; Okay, so, I know this means nothing to y'all probably, but my brother is reading very genuine to me this game. If you wonder why I'm joking around with him, a lot of it is to see how he responds (and a slightly smaller portion just cause I enjoy him ). Granted, I haven't seen him play scum, but I'd bet he's town this game. Just my two cents.On February 17 2015 10:54 rsoultin wrote: It could be argued that JJB might know too much, and his game looks so much better than his last ones that lol I have had a seed of doubt or two, not gonna lie. However he was very active keeping the discussion open so I think he's probably still town. On February 18 2015 00:42 rsoultin wrote: Now I'm really wishing that I had asked rsoultin to elaborate on this instead of intentionally avoiding discussion on the topic. I have absolutely no idea why she would say this. Does anyone know?Lol, I gotcha, and no worries. This was always approached with a grain of salt, and I actually think it counts against her more than for her. On February 18 2015 08:36 rsoultin wrote: Rsoultin is scumreading The Shining while I am not, but all the same, I will keep this in mind.Alright, Shining, lol. I must admit that the only thing bugging me really was your behavior around EoD, so it gets a pass for now. If you keep doing that shit, though, I'll try my darndest to get you lynched I did half-catch you last time so I can put the paranoia away for a little while longer. | ||
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On February 18 2015 11:00 jarjarbinks wrote: 1. It's not WIFOM because Hier was lynched, not night killed. Given the nature of the lynch, the best you can take from this is that Hier was scumreading Tere. There's not much else to be said here.I'm not gonna lie, I am less confident in this one. Tere: 1: Hier voted for Tere: This is definitely WIFOM. This is also based on numbers I've seen and will be hard to explain, but I will try my best. WIFOM reads are generally perceived as 50-50. From what I have seen in previous (non-newbie games), WIFOM reads from town are actually decent reads on average. Better than 50-50. Especially the reads where the dead townie voted for someone on his/her own. This is great (and you could say hard for me to prove) but you do have to ask yourself if Hier was simply retaling (if forgot the acronym) Tere's aggressive lynch or if he was on to something. I honestly think Hier believed in his vote, which makes me think Tere is more suspicious. 2. Sometimes Tier has been unresponsive to rather simple or weak pokes at her. I've never played with her before and she could play this way as town, but I think this is suspicious. I think this argument has been made by others, so I won't dive too hard, but it is suspicious. 3. Tere was in the bandwagon group, at least to begin with, but then went hard on Hier as time went on. In my eyes, this shows she acted the most like town of the four (Tere, Trf, Silver, Elyas). I put her in this group because she initially bandwagonned. Making a caveat to my own biases, I perceived her to act like my sister due to the first few posts she's made. I will try not to do that in the future. 2. It's probably best for townies not to respond to weak pokes. If townies are too caught up in defending every single suspicion someone raises against them, not only does that detract from their own scumhunting, but it distracts the entire thread. On the contrary, I actually felt that she was a bit too responsive to my suspicions of her when I admitted they were unfounded in the exact same post. Since End of Day, many people have expressed suspicions of Tere, and she has just said that all will be clear after the Day post. Tere's next few posts will probably be extremely crucial in reading her. Tere, I am very much awaiting an explanation for your posting during the night. You've been hinting at something. Time to reveal. Anyone there who wants to chat? | ||
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On February 18 2015 12:44 Trfel wrote: So little activity...Anyone there who wants to chat? I miss rsoultin | ||
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On February 18 2015 13:14 jarjarbinks wrote: Ugh, it sounds like I'm going to need to dig up meta on this guy to see if he needs to be lynched or not.I didn't respond because part of it sounded hypocritical about the bandwagon thing coming from you and I didn't like how you EOD'd. GIve me a sec, I'll do it by point. Jarjarbinks, I'm having tons of trouble trying to get an accurate read on you. Do you have any suggestions? Otherwise, I'll think of something, I hope... | ||
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On February 18 2015 13:19 jarjarbinks wrote: That settles it, you're getting lynched I think I originally treated her like she was on Rso's level (no offense lol) and I think I should have treated her more like on your or Shining's level. | ||
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On February 18 2015 13:31 jarjarbinks wrote: That's precisely the argument. It takes no effort to say what makes sense, what sounds right. But the goal isn't to lynch the person who says incorrect things, the goal is to lynch the mafia. I didn't see that in Tere's filter on Day 1."Tere does not seem to separate player skill from her reads" True but look around. Rso was universally townread. You were pretty townread by most if not all. You could probably say this for most of us. More experienced players play this game better and are better at appearing town. You could make an argument that her reads based on skill show a lack of effort? | ||
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Thanks a bunch for answering my request. I took a cursory look at your posts, I'll definitely take a more through look tomorrow. (tonight I am reading ElyAs, tomorrow on to other people) | ||
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I feel like we base our play around completely different things, and we look for entirely different things. Thus, for me to get an accurate read on you, I have to do it by your standards, but I'm having trouble figuring out how to go about that. The biggest example of this is that you immediately dismissed my case on Tere because I myself am guilty of some of the things I mentioned in the case. I place a ton of value on subjective arguments and the validity of various arguments, as well as the level of critical thinking shown. Meanwhile, I'm under the impression that you look for more reasons that are purely objective, such as votes, night kills, and numbers. Is this a correct assessment? I don't know if you are town based on filter length alone. I don't know if you are town based on potentially fooling rsoultin. I have no scumgame of yours to look at for information. Therefore, the more reads you can provide, it would help a ton. I really really want to get this lynch, and it's going to require ALL townies to raise their game. I know that I'm going to try and put in a ton more effort. What is your overall conclusion on my case on Tere? Is it good or bad? How does this affect your stance on Tere and myself, and why? Thanks a ton for being willing to discuss with me. It's immensely helpful. | ||
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On February 18 2015 13:45 jarjarbinks wrote: I think he is probably town. For all of Day 1, I actually think that his play was not that scummy. His play for Night 1 has been lackluster, but I can overlook that for now. I'm also hoping for a lot from him on Day 2.It's all good. Thoughts on Elyas so far? Note that I still have a lot of analysis on him to do, and I am really slow, so you should probably go to bed before I finish. As to Tere's read on The Shining, I'm sorry I can't really answer that now. I think it was better, but I'm not really sure yet. I've been postponing looking closer at Tere until she finally reveals her intentions from Night 1, I hope you can understand why. | ||
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On February 18 2015 13:55 jarjarbinks wrote: Okay, thanks. I'll have to accept the fact that you are probably town. Though I hope you understand that I still need to make a detailed check of your filter and your past games.It's cool. Yes lol I look at objective things more than subjective, because well I suck at the subjective. I'm trying to get better as these games go on but honestly this game is not my forte. I've spent more hours building a spreadsheet that most vets disapprove of lol I haven't gone a game where people besides my sister think i'm actually town. Null maybe? Town definitely not lol I actually have never played scum so I can't help you there lol The only thing I can think of doing is provide you as much information as possible. I think I was being devil's advocate when commenting on your case lol You made some points I agree on. The effort thing is something to look into. She has a pretty high filter, but effort on scumhunting is what matters. I'm not suspicious enough to lynch her at the moment, but I would favor her over zfelin for sure lol As to the last part of my question, how did this discussion and my case on Tere affect your read on me? And far more importantly, why? (note that there is no set right/wrong answer to this question, I'm interested in the explanation). Then you can go to sleep XD | ||
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On February 18 2015 14:08 jarjarbinks wrote: I can see where you are coming from, though I don't necessarily agree with everything in this post.Lol Despite not agreeing with a lot of things you have said, your have definitely shown the most effort in scumhunting to this point. I was there in your last scumgame and if you are scum then this is massive improvement. Like beyond massive. There were some actions you took that I disapprove of (#1 being your actions EOD on D1, but you at least were around at the end), but since then you have honestly been scumhunting and scumhunting hard. I'd be blind not to see that lol Your argument was a subset of that. Some of your reads weren't exactly strong. If you voted Tere based off your argument I wouldn't join. I want to see what her plan that she was talking about is. I also want to see her reaction to all of these scumreads. But the amount of effort you took in making it strengthen's your case for being town. Seriously, thank you so much for being willing to go over all this with me. It's super helpful. I know my tone hasn't been the greatest, I'm a bit frustrated at the game in general, I'll try to come back tomorrow with a clear mind. Good night jarjarbinks, thanks for sharing your thoughts. | ||
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On February 18 2015 14:23 jarjarbinks wrote: I'm sorry, I'm a bit distracted because I think I found something extremely interesting. Unfortunately, it will take some time before I can share, and it's quite likely that I will be proved completely wrong, so no guarantees that you will hear about it again.The multiple posts that "distance" himself from Hier is what got me bent on Elyas being scum. What do you think about those? I count about 3 different distance posts. I see this two ways: 1: Distances himself. Makes an easy but decent case on zfelin. Talks about maybe Tere being bad, but doesn't really muster an argument. Looks like he's scumhunting when isn't. 2: Actually believes what he says. Waffles on Hier. Makes an easy but decent case on Zfelin and realizes its not super strong. Moves on to Tere, but doesn't make a case due to Shining switching. This is definitely possible, my only problem with this outlook is that Elyas' case on Tere seems lacking compared to the other two cases he already made. The points ring a bit, but do you see how it has less effort? I'll attach it below this post as I still suck at formatting lol Obviously I originally thought #1 was more likely. Maybe I'm wrong. Let me know your thoughts. I see ElyAs' play at End of Day as more like option 2. He stated early on that he was unsure about the Hier lynch. I know it can look scummy, but by no means is it a sure tell (heck, I do that every lynch, if you don't believe me rsoultin already stated that). Maybe his case on Tere took less effort, but that doesn't make him scum. I'll take another look, but I remember his reasoning being acceptable, and that's really what matters. | ||
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On February 18 2015 14:27 jarjarbinks wrote: Though this is definitely something to ask about.This was the case I was mentioning. Maybe Elyas didn't get too far in his Tere case before the Shining switch, then gave up and looked at Tere fresh before this post. Still this case seems worse than the other two he made. A few questions for ElyAs What do you mean by your lynch pool? Is that the people you would be willing to lynch right now, or the pool of potential lynch candidates, or what? Any comments on jarjarbinks' observation that this case seems to have taken less effort than your other cases? Thanks! | ||
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On February 17 2015 23:11 Silverarte wrote: I'm only popping this up but I can find other instances as well of the similar complaint on the lines of "Wait! you want us to provide, but you won't?" There might be a legitimate reason for this. I'm sure there is! But really, this is still suspicious to me. Now, reviewing everything...why do I see more of the above, rather than scum hunting? On February 18 2015 04:02 Silverarte wrote: Hrmph.Woo! Back! How's it going so far? Also, so far, what is everyone's top? Rather than two bullets, how about one? Looks like I'll be going to bed soon, so good night all. Or I suppose, good morning to the majority. | ||
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##vote Tere (I need to leave now, but that's left a bit ambiguous for a reason) | ||
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On February 18 2015 22:31 Trfel wrote: I'm sorry, I thought you were done (misinterpreted what you were saying, I guess). You're still posting reasoning/explanations. Carry on then.Not good enough. ##vote Tere (I need to leave now, but that's left a bit ambiguous for a reason) | ||
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On February 19 2015 00:29 Tere wrote: Now that you are done, I will respond to this.Before I get on to a suggestion for today's play, I just want to respond briefly to what I've bolded here: Trfel, if you are town, can you please not bloody do this, it's very irritating. My response to you yesterday probably took an hour of my time by the time I'd fucked about with the formatting to make it readable. You made it very clear in your initial post that you wanted a response from me, I took the time and trouble to craft it, and your response is to scumread me for it further. I don't have the time to play this game 24/7, and behaving like this if you are town makes me not want to work with you. That's compounded by you simply saying "That's not good enough", laying a lame vote on me and sodding off just now. I'm now up to 4 hours time spent in the thread post daybreak, with more to come. If this is what you are going to do, I don't see why I should put the effort in, quite frankly, particularly given I'm being universally scumread right now. I should just let you guys mislynch me, AFK, and troll you in the deadboard. Not impressed right now. First of all, I apologize for the formatting being difficult. I tried to put it in a formatting that was easy to read. In the future, if anyone wants to respond to me, they may feel free to put it in whatever formatting is easiest for them, I am more than happy to read a response in potentially poor formatting. That was not my intention at all. I do appreciate you spending a lot of time on this game, for the record, I've been spending a lot of time on it too. It took me over an hour to type the post in question as well. As to why I voted you, I had maybe two minutes before I had to leave for class. I read your posts, saw night kill analysis and voting analysis (which I considered weak*), and no explanation of your strange behavior as of late. Therefore, I placed a vote for you. Note that this vote was pressure, not a firm vote, you can sort of tell that by the sentence in parentheses underneath the vote. I missed the sentences where you said that you were not done. Bad play by me? Yes. Uncalled for? Yes. Can we move on? I hope so. Ironically, my intention was exactly the same as what you suggested (and for basically the same reasons). *I believe that the voting analysis and night kill analysis you provided are weak (not your fault, they are quite good for the little material to work with). However, what I did not realize is that you were providing an extremely comprehensive thought process including analysis of everything possible, which naturally would include a voting analysis and a night kill analysis, however strong/weak. Therefore, the voting and night kill analysis make perfect sense and are appreciated. I will not lynch for information. I don't think that is a good idea at all. And yes, if we mislynch today, we are on LYLO, and I do not like that prospect. | ||
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On February 18 2015 20:55 ElyAs wrote: Bad idea. Even so, by far the most reasonable cause for the rsoultin kill is to get rid of a strong town player who is leading the discussion.This post got me thinking. We are in a newbie game so I'll take this in the level zero of mindgames, which means no mindgames, this lynch has a purpose which is not to deceive us. | ||
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First, I note that the amount of effort that Tere put into these posts is probably the greatest single time effort I have ever seen in a mafia game. I almost townread her for effort alone, though without knowing her character, that isn't safe, unfortunately. However, the amount of effort put in is extremely encouraging. I generally think that voting analysis (at least when basically everyone votes for one obvious person) and night kill analysis are weak. I'm guessing that it would be easily possible to spin the voting analysis to have a completely different set of implicated players (not implying that this is what Tere did). Keep in mind that I have never actually performed or analyzed someone else's voting analysis.... I see the way that Silverarte voted as more null than town, and I feel that the way The Shining voted wasn't as terrible as Tere thinks. And I feel that ElyAs was actually the most proactive about looking into counterwagons. I suppose it's silly to try and judge my own play, but I am more inclined to think that the way I voted for Hier looks more scummy than towny. Though that could be completely wrong. And naturally, I think that the rest of my play is more than towny enough to make up for it. On to Tere's analysis of our collective scumreads. On February 19 2015 00:20 Tere wrote: I'm not. But you had time to post an F5 gif and another post or two, you could have expressed a little disappointment at the flip. It's a moot point, since I'm accepting your explanation, and now that I think about it more, scum tend to feel guilty and sorry for the mislynch. Not showing emotion is not really alignment indicative.(as an aside, please don't scumread me for being asleep fairly soon after day and night ends that end at midnight my time, that would be lovely) I also disagree with some of Tere's reasoning for the "two kills" analysis. Nice people aren't always town, and mean people aren't always mafia. For example, while The Shining's filter does contain several suspicious things, it also contains several things that look towny. So I'm not confident in scumreading him just for being angry. In addition to this, Tere's posting has this tone that I run into every so often, not only convincing me that the player posting is the most towny player in the history of mafia, but also making me feel miserable for ever doubting their towniness. With an experienced conversationalist like Tere, logic tells me to be careful with this tone read. I'm not willing to completely clear Tere. But she has gone through an incredible effort, and much of what she says makes sense (though given the size of the posts, there weren't that many profound insights, though because her posts were formatted to talk about everything that is acceptable, I suppose). I'm a little worried that Tere's posts make her look better than I feel the analysis warrants, but on the whole, I'm mostly happy to accept Tere as town. Especially if Tere leads us to a scum lynch. If she leads a mislynch, then I will have to take another serious look at this again.... | ||
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On February 19 2015 02:25 ElyAs wrote: I've been more seriously considering the possibility of Silverarte being scum as well. You beat me to it.For now I see her filter is about suspicion on zlefin and Tere, and generally trying to be amiable to Trfel and rsoultin. It could be mildly pushing easy lynch targets while being careful of townleaders. But please, Tere is not, never has been, and probably never will be an easy lynch target. High post count players are rarely easy lynch targets, even if they aren't as sensible and persuasive as Tere is. | ||
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On February 16 2015 13:43 Silverarte wrote: I actually don't really like this read. It feels a bit weak, a bit forced. A lot of it is tone, some of the wording seems suspect, although I can't explain it.I read the RNG posts and Hier's issues, so I decided to tackle this. The problem is, I really can't say why Hier shouldn't be here. There was a huge focus previously on his (? ...sorry, always so hard to know genders on games like this! No offense meant) idea for how a game should be. It became a huge focus and while it got discussion going, it didn't What bothers me most here is that you're being pushed for those reads. While it's a newbie game, those reads aren't coming easy. Moreso, why are you pushing so hard for special mechanics over playing the game? What does this gain you? I'd say one good point in your favor was Shining's point on all of this in that you're putting forth a lot of effort. However, I argue that really? That effort is for Bridges, not for actually participating with questions from others. Your last post (assuming you haven't posted by the time I pop this up) bothers me a great deal. On February 16 2015 13:56 Silverarte wrote: I see this as completely null. It's a great way for scum to look helpful, while not contributing anything, and giving an opportunity to blame schedules and hide (though I have no doubts that this is Silverarte's actual schedule).Silver's work schedule so you know when to expect seeing her around (though she totally hopes to be around during lunches! YAY NEW JOB!) I work four days a week, ten hour shifts now. I'm also currently helping with work on a house, but that'll be changing here in a few days. I basically work: Monday, Thurs, Fri and Sat: 7:30-6:30 (MST). I believe that's 14:30 GMT to 1:30 GMT. I think that's about right. Now, I'll be around mostly in the evenings (later evenings) so if you have questions, please feel free to ask and I'll do my best to answer them if I miss you being around. I'll do what I did last time and place votes before I go to work and if I can duck in during lunches, I'll do so. I'll try my best! (I'm pretty excited to see people about during the evening time though. This is a large contrast to my previous game. =D) On February 16 2015 22:39 Silverarte wrote: The first portion of this post, discussing my suspicions of The Shining, seems to be poor following. The third paragraph shows that in addition to complete following, Silverarte is distancing herself from the read. I'm not convinced that she was thinking critically about this, especially given the way that The Shining and rsoultin responded to my posts on The Shining at this time.Sorry friends, I completely fell asleep last night >< I'll take the sleepiness into account Trfel. Though, when you're around again, let me know what you think without all of the sleepiness there?As far as Shining goes, I can see your point. I didn't see what made the case on Zlefin, particularly since Zle's filter looked null to me at that time. I'd say the oddest thing to me here is that you being potentially scumread for walls of text. Those make it hard to read sometimes true, but I proved my only other game then and now that I do those too. Personally, I'd like to see more from Shining. I saw where you are coming from, but I don't feel he's a D1 lynch. And actually, I'd like to see everyone's thought here too. @zlefin I appreciate the concern about activity and all that, but remember. I live in the US and I posted my schedule up. On Saturdays, I work for ten hours then went out for Valentines out here. While I appreciate activity might signify something, at the same time, understanding for the holiday I feel should be in there somewhere too. Now, that said and behind us, my question for you is this. The scumread list you gave, can I ask what gives you the thoughts that Jarjar and Hier are on the lynch list. Also, if I'm reading the way you have that list right, Rsoultin is on the lynch list too, is that correct? (It's the points I'm trying to sort out). The final paragraph is rather defensive, especially given that Silverarte opened up this very post with an excuse for activity, and has already posted her schedule. Looking back at zlefin's posts, he basically gave two one-liners about Silverarte, making this final paragraph feel rather out of place and extremely defensive. The vast majority of Silverarte's posts concern her own activity (or lack thereof). Ten hour day and a date afterwards my friend! Go ahead and ding me for it, but I SO regret nothing! =D (1 am and we still weren't done talking philosophy. SO much fun. Also...lots of food. Mmm....) Thoughts/reads on people: The Shining: Posting content when arriving, and I can totally understand limited access here. That said, I'm still looking at the previous case where it was pointed out that The Shining did react defensive pretty quickly. At least he was honest about his Sheeping, for all he had a case on Zlefin. Suspicious of you man! But, not suspicious enough to push you at the moment. =P ElyAs: I'd really like to see more from Ely here. We go from case on Hier, to not being sold on the Lynch, back to the case on Hier, then a case on Zlefin. The only real content here are those cases and the rest of his posts don't have a lot of subtance. Ely is another person I'm waiting to see more from. (More to come! Yay filters!) Silverarte chooses her two shots to be zlefin and Tere. The Tere read appears to be partially following my lead, since the only original insight in this post is rather weak. Looking back at the post where Silverarte initially showed suspicions of Tere, it feels weak, a bit of following me, and tempered by uncertainty. I'm not impressed by Silverarte's read on zlefin, either. It seems to be picking on a a new player for weak reasons. To be fair, a lot of players have done this, but that doesn't mean that I have to approve (and I think I've been mostly consistent about players who find weak reasons to pick on other players). On February 18 2015 04:02 Silverarte wrote: And then of course, there is this post. Ironic considering that Silverarte scumread Tere for doing the same thing (asking for who people would kill without doing any work herself).Woo! Back! How's it going so far? Also, so far, what is everyone's top? Rather than two bullets, how about one? Finally, rsoultin mentioned that Silverarte was completely forgettable, and I agree. Being forgettable is an indication of being scum. In summary, I don't like Silverarte very much right now. There is a lot of hiding behind inactivity, a lot of weak reads, and she has been a bit too defensive. I'll take another look at Student Mafia V, but I think I could see myself lynching Silverarte. Thoughts? | ||
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On February 19 2015 05:06 zlefin wrote: I really, really, really hate unflipped association analysis.I believe that's a good analysis, and would like to hear Silver's rebuttal. Also, if you think it's silver, any idea on who they're working with? I'm starting to try to think on pairwise analysis to see who looks too in sync. But if Silverarte is scum, Tere isn't looking too good at the moment. Again, I really hate unflipped association analysis. There are just too many variables, I'd rather just lynch who I think is scum. On second thought, let's turn up the heat. ##vote Silverarte | ||
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On February 19 2015 05:19 Silverarte wrote: Oh, look who showed up.Ahahah! I just come back ,start to catch up and see we've got some heat. Well, let me catch up and we'll see what I can do to turn that back down. | ||
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Tere, do you mind if I don't respond to your post? My impression of what you are asking me to do is exactly what I am attempting to do. I feel like I am having a hard time communicating my true intent with you (probably my fault, not yours), so I'm not sure that responding would help anything. Though if you do want me to respond, of course I can do so, I'm just not sure that it would help with anything. Oh, and zlefin, I hope you won't mind if I don't list my reads like that, just because I don't like quantifying or categorizing my reads. But as of Page 44, Silverarte seems to be the best lynch. | ||
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On February 19 2015 09:11 The Shining wrote: Good or bad?Oh boy Trfel, you're in for a great surprise. Did the scum concede? | ||
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Do I get in a say in this? I think both are town. And I don't want to lynch town. | ||
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On February 19 2015 09:19 Tere wrote: Whatever, if you ever do want a response, let me know. Until then, I will proceed as normal.I don't mind if you don't respond right now. I'm talking. | ||
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On February 19 2015 06:26 zlefin wrote: Fair enough, but I hope you understand that I don't want to do this. I don't mind if you do, as long as you remember that it can be very inaccurate.You may hate unflipped association analysis Trfel, I'd say it's weak, but not utterly useless. Mostly I'd expect associations to be unclear, but the fewer people there are left in the pool, the more it becomes possible to maybe say something. Even if I could just say a certain pair of people aren't both mafia, that'd still be useful. It also represents another way of looking at things; and looking at things from a different angle can be helpful, as long as you don't read too much into it. On February 19 2015 09:22 zlefin wrote: Urgh, fine. I just feel like I can't say anything to Tere without a miscommunication or a misinterpretation.I moderately mind, it's not THAT hard to do, and it helps me get a clearer sense of where everybody is, and a good reference point to look back at. | ||
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On February 19 2015 09:24 Tere wrote: I don't have any helpful meta on The Shining, except that in his first game, I remember that he looked really scummy on Day 1 (we were both town), and I tried to get him lynched. Whether this is his scum or mafia game, he's improved a ton since then.Hush now, he's either rage quit or pretended to rage quit or I'm not sure but i've been told off for swearing. Whatever alignment he is, I'll bet dollars to doughnuts he ain't quitting. And most of this is alignment neutral for me. If you have a meta on whether scum Shining would crumble against a strong defence, hit me with it, but right now I think it's a passionate person doing something passionate and it's not alignment indicatiive (and quite frankly, in a newbie game, I'd throw to the newbies if I had to. Not that I won't give them a run for a money if it's neutral (because an easy ride is boring )) I'll definitely take another look at what both of you are getting at, but I want to take a detailed look at everything that's happened since I left first (looking at this whole Tere-Shining thing will probably take hours, so I'll get the easy stuff out of the way). | ||
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On February 19 2015 09:30 Tere wrote: Good night.I think everyone needs to time out, and the Shining needs to get his butt in. That's where I'm at, anyway. Time out 10 hours, goodnight. Ironically, I've barely played this game at all today. I feel really refreshed and my mind is much clearer. So for me, it's work time. I also work much better at night, so there's that. | ||
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But yes, you two, take a break and think logically and then we can go find the scum together. | ||
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Note that I do not require a response if you do not choose to provide one. It is spoilered because I don't see it as being very important. + Show Spoiler + This post makes a lot of sense. I understand more at what you were getting at in your Walls of Text. Not directed towards me, but this is really nice to see. Now, this post. I hate adding responses inside quotes, so bear with me (if anyone is actually reading this). As to me being patronizing to Tere ("good girl, well done"), this is not intended in the slightest. Whether she is scum or town, I'm pretty sure that Tere is the most skilled player left in this game, and I have no right whatsoever to be condescending to her. My only intention was to acknowledge the effort and thank her for it, and say that I felt that it made rather good evidence for her being town. As for me judging my own play, I was not looking for sympathy, and my intention was not to talk about myself. I was saying that you townread me for something, and I didn't like your reasoning, while allowing for the possibility of an accurate tone read (because I am terrible at tone reads). I have already accepted that Tere and I think differently and work differently. I don't think that is a problem. As for simplifying your reads, you are right that that part of my post was horrid. I have no explanation. As for me not being confident in my tone read of Tere, I'm bad at tone reads, of course I'm not confident in it (that won't stop me from trying to use tone reads, though...). I guess it makes sense that you don't want to lead a wagon. I disagree, and think that you are good enough at this game that I think you ought to lead a wagon, but I understand what you are saying and I accept it. And no, I'm not scum. I am not 100% sure of your alignment, but I think you are town. On February 19 2015 09:45 The Shining wrote: Tagging this at the bottom because I'm not sure it deserves its own post. You already have my reaction, to me it seems like a town vs town argument.Lmao the Circe thing made me lol. Tere, I guess I should've outright stated it but I didn't take any offense. Can I also point out I'm somewhat reminded of how RSo and Geript went at it in Student Mafia V? Scum really likes hanging back when these kinds of interactions happen. I want everyone's reactions, please. | ||
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On February 19 2015 06:53 Silverarte wrote: I'm going to trust Tere and not respond to Silverarte's post at this time, I suppose. But this part does require response.We had, as of then, over two more days to figure out who our next lynch was be. With D2 around the corner, my thought was we had time to figure out just what Tere was doing and where Zlefin was going to pop up as. In the future, please don't do this. You can NEVER have too much time to work out a lynch (if you are town, I bet that an hour before the Day 2 lynch deadline you'll be wishing you had been more active at night). I have been told in the past by extremely reliable sources that town's best strategy is to continue scumhunting full steam at night. Yes, I am aware that some people disagree, but I currently feel that it is best to use the night to scumhunt as well. | ||
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On February 19 2015 06:53 Silverarte wrote: I'll respond tot his part as well.I have asked a couple times if anyone's had questions for me. While people have interacted with me, I've not seen many questions until Tere joined us and did that odd play with the bullets. On that note, if anyone has other questions for me now, please feel free to ask. My problem with this is that I don't feel you have done all that much so far this game (no offense, you've been really busy). Therefore, I don't really have any questions for you besides the general "who is scum, who is town?" My not asking questions by no means indicates that I don't want to hear more from you, it just indicates that I have no specific questions at the time. | ||
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On February 19 2015 10:08 The Shining wrote: Wait, so The Shining, you are going to be here for another 6-8 hours?Just a heads up, my first post today up until about 6-8 hours from now are my most active times. I'm a night worker, mornings aren't my thing. But I'll def catch up with you as soon as I'm awake. | ||
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I prefer to give people the benefit of the doubt, I feel that it is a horrible thing to do to lie about activity. It just feels like it's avoiding playing the game, and what is the fun of that? I recognize that it happens, but I really try not to set assumed levels for people's activity and require them to be active during those times. The Shining, hopefully we can have some productive discussion tonight, then. I won't be up for as long as you, but I will be up for a while. That said, I need to go grab dinner now, I'll be back later. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + (I'm a trumpet player, what can I say? XD ) | ||
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Point taken, though. I really am quite hypocritical. On February 19 2015 11:12 The Shining wrote: I disagree. People use different words to describe their feelings. There are some people who go back on reads they describe as 100% definite. Given ElyAs's reasoning and overall filter picture, I see no problem here. If you want, I'll take another look, but it will be in a while.Silver, basically all of that. Ely blatantly says he won't budge from his read on Tere. As town, I'm personally always inclined to keep at least a 5% of healthy doubt. The only townie is a confirmed townie, IMO. Especially in a newbie game. I have trouble believing Ely is really that dead set on his read that he'd refuse to budge or be open to a case. And because he can't decide whether I'm scum or misguided town, I'm scum. Wouldn't not bring able to decide be null? Just seems to want to scum me after I scumread Tere. And after leaning town on me and agreeing my play is consistent and so were my posts. | ||
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Can I get clarification as to why you moved Silverarte to a scum read? | ||
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On February 19 2015 11:20 Trfel wrote: Ah, shoot, you already said that you don't want to answer this fully. Oh well, but if you are willing to answer, it would be nice to know. To clarify, I see you leave hints as to your reasons, but it would be nice to have them out in the open and clear.Tere Can I get clarification as to why you moved Silverarte to a scum read? | ||
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Newbie games are extremely difficult. You should have known that before you signed up. People afk'ing sucks. But this game is still winnable, we have capable players here, and we have 50 pages of information to work with. Any townie who lets up now, or quits, basically dooms town despite what everyone else does. | ||
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On February 19 2015 08:48 ElyAs wrote: Wait, The Shining, you refer to this post? You're right, this doesn't look very good.I don't know. I really don't. Your play has been consistent with what you said in the beginning (about voting analysis and hunting inconsistences) and your case on Tere is also consistent. But I'm not moving with my read on Tere, so you're either misguided town or scum in my eyes. For now I can't decide so slight scum. zlefin asked for a list of reads, here it is : Townish : Trfel, Tere, ElyAs Null : JJB (need to filter dive), zlefin (want to filter dive too, my earlier scumread on you feels misguided to me.) Slight scumread : The Shining Scummy : Silverarte. I really want to finish filter diving before casting my vote, but if I don't find a better lynch I'm okay with lynching Silver. It's getting late, I'll have more tomorrow. Still, it's not bad enough that this post alone will have a major affect on my read on ElyAs. | ||
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On February 19 2015 11:39 Silverarte wrote: I thought I made that clear enough. I still think he's town.Shining, I'm glad you aren't quitting. Trfel? What do you think of Ely as of right now? (In light of what you posted above to Shining) To be fair, my reads don't change very much unless something really big happens or I take a detailed look at someone's filter. The last few times I filter dove ElyAs, I had a fairly comfortable town read. I'm not going to change that because of one post which is probably the result of him mis-stating something. Of course he is on my list to read again, and at that time maybe my read will change. But I hope you can understand why I don't see reading ElyAs as my top priority at this time. | ||
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Yes, I am a extreme doubter and a pessimist. I argue everything towards null. Deal with it. | ||
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Am I still reading town to you? If not, why? If so, can you explain why you changed your read on me from scum to town? | ||
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I've noticed that whenever I post a read, that same read is often used later by others. Maybe if I hold my reads to myself for a while, I can see more of who is doing original thinking and who isn't. Maybe I'll give that a try for a bit, at least I can test The Shining. | ||
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On February 19 2015 12:11 The Shining wrote: Thanks, that makes a lot of sense. I like it.+ Show Spoiler + On February 18 2015 07:50 The Shining wrote: Yeah but in it you posted a bit where you said I mentioned my push on Zlef was "slight" as if I were trying to distance myself from the lynch? Which is exactly what you did in that same post by saying you were sleepy and might need to revisit it. And you, you haven't actually CLEARLY stated it, or I wouldn't be pinging on it. This was your reasoning: So you guess you don't want to lynch me but things still look scummy but things look like real scumhunting, too. It just felt too inconsistent to me. + Show Spoiler + On February 18 2015 07:58 Trfel wrote: Is it not wrong to allow for the possibility that being sleepy could negatively affect my play? In the past, I've usually played fine while extremely tired, but in my last game I made a terrible blunder at about 4:30 AM. I don't see sleepiness as being a problem to hold back my reads for, but it would be silly to not mention it as a possibility. As for distancing myself from my scumread of you, it was NOT a scumread. I found a few things I felt were suspicious, and I wanted to hear thoughts from you and other people. Believe me, if I am scumreading someone, I will make it absolutely sure that everyone knows. Some things you did looked scummy, some things you did looked fine. I concluded that the result didn't make me want to lynch you at that time. Is that a problem? The first spoiler was a post in which I was still suspicious of you. In the second spoiler is your response which I ultimately liked and gave you some town cred in my eyes. Since that post, I've been reading you as town due to your thread presence, your willingness to address literally everything in the thread and also still having a conviction in your questioning. Scum Trfel last game was wishy washy, not very committed but not very weary of who he was lynching. I'm seeing the opposite here. Strong stances with a healthy paranoia of who we may be lynching. So kudos to you if this is your scum game, its completely diff from the last one and notably so. Anyway, I'm going through your filter again right now, I'll probably have a few things to ask you about. If you have any questions for me, or anything you want me to look into next, feel free to let me know (and please please please don't say Tere, I'm putting that off for as long as possible...). | ||
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On February 16 2015 06:38 The Shining wrote: But you didn't townread me for my opening. And I was scum and put myself in the spotlight in the last game you were in.That being said, Hier is a very slight townread for me. I don't think scum would put themselves in the spotlight so early with a strategy that unwittingly favors scum. (...) Does scum, especially in a newbie game, have the balls to suggest something like that? If you answered this already, I'm sorry. I got bored reading your filter (not because it was boring, but because I think you are town and there are other things I want to look in to!), so if you have answered this already, please forgive me. If not, it would be nice to know. On February 16 2015 07:32 The Shining wrote: If this really was a pressure push, why didn't you vote right away?Zlefin has a couple of posts that lead nowhere and weak and unexplained reads. Mentions WIFOM, game voting rules, some parroting. Says Hier and RSo could both be town or both be scum but wont commit to his reads. Seems to be all for policy lynching inactives when there were only 2. How likely is it both scum members are inactive? Likely my leading candidate for a shot at D1 scum lynch. Thanks. Like I said, I think you're town, I had little problem with your filter before, and your recent argument with Tere strengthens that, if anything. | ||
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My reasoning for looking at Tere is because I'm a silly, paranoid doubter. Tere, I hope you can understand why I am still a bit suspicious of your alignment, and you can assume that I am considering you town unless I say otherwise. Note that if I can convincingly show that you are town, I will do so and that is a priority for me to focus on lynching scum targets instead. I still think that Silverarte is looking like a not bad lynch at the moment. And I would like to see some more reads from zlefin. | ||
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On February 19 2015 12:52 Silverarte wrote: I'll take a look. General reads would be useful. Can we actually get one of those simple Town/Leaning Town/Null/Leaning Scum/Scum lists from you?Tea crisis solved. >< Back. Any questions for me while I float through? | ||
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Side note, does someone mind taking a look at the early part of jarjarbinks' filter? I'm looking for something in particular. On February 16 2015 12:00 jarjarbinks wrote: Here, jarjarbinks retracts his position on The Shining. But what was the initial position? All I'm seeing is a super early game null read. You don't retract a null read.... Surely I'm missing something, right?I retract my position on the shining. Has scumhunted/given reads a lot. I like a lot of the posts too. Solid filter, despite not having many posts. Probably one of my strongest townreads right now. | ||
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Why did that take you so long to type up? Because you were doing research for it, or what? Do you still have filters you want to look through and stuff? If so, carry on. I'll take a more detailed look at your filter once I'm finished with Tere. | ||
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On February 19 2015 13:22 Silverarte wrote: Very well, good night. I might not actually get to your filter tonight, if not, first priority for tomorrow (after reading the thread, of course).I was searching for a few of them, yes. I was researching it a bit just to see if anything else had switched up for me. Also, I'm going to be heading to bed here shortly. If you have anything for me in the meantime I'm here, but otherwise, I need to hit the sack. XD | ||
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Tere, do you mind explaining the history of your read on ElyAs and why it changed? It seems to have started out as a townread for seeming to scumhunt, and then you scumread him for having an empty filter. Why the change? And then, you moved him to town based on one post (I'm fine with this, though I do note that the timing is slightly suspicious, given I had recently made it clear that I thought ElyAs was town). | ||
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On February 19 2015 13:32 The Shining wrote: Tere has no reason to avoid answering the question. I don't see it as unwillingness to read, either. So I really don't have a problem with it, it's one anomaly in a filter that seems to be focused scumhunting.Trfel, I'm sorry but I need to address this. You really have no problem with what you're reading as town Tere actually quoting the question I asked her to tell me I'm reading her wrong but still claiming to have not seen the question? Imo, it's a pretty blatant example of either unwillingness to read or avoiding the question. Tere was tired. Call that a silly excuse, I can point to lots of terrible errors I've made due to sleep deprivation. Allow me to cite Linux Mafia, the most prominent example. I thought I had IAmRobik all caught as mafia. The case was based on the fact that he claimed named VT right at the start of the game. He said the reason was so that we would know he was town and follow his lead. Then he made a bunch of terrible posts and AFK'd for the rest of Day 1. It was 4:30 AM, I was tired, and I thought he was scum. My case was based around the fact that if he was town, his claim was terrible, as that would give scum more accuracy in their night kills hitting a town role with a night action, and he failed to do anything whatsoever to follow through with the positive intention, that is making him useful as a confirmed town player. That would be a terrible town play, so I determined he had to be scum. I forgot to account for the most likely, and extremely obvious possibility that he was a town player fake claiming. | ||
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Anyway, I'll be gone for a bit. I'll check up on things when I'm done, maybe look through Silverarte's filter, but no guarantees about that. | ||
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On February 19 2015 14:14 The Shining wrote: I do like the post, but I would mind elaborating. It's a question for Tere, and not for me. If I answer, then Tere's answer holds no value at all. I mean, I guess I could answer, but I'd rather not.Ok, Trfel. I'm curious to see who agrees with you. Thank you for answering. Would you mind elaborating? Do you like Ely's post in a town context? | ||
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On February 19 2015 14:18 The Shining wrote: You're talking to me, right?Almost home, going to look into JJB. At first glance, I remember that post having context to it. Would I be correct in assuming that by you towning myself, yourself, Tere and Ely, your lynch candidate will be between Silver, Z and JJB? If so, yes, you are correct. I won't choose to specify more at this time because I really think that Tere has a point that it can be beneficial to withhold reads every so often. I've been pushing tons of reads all game long, I want to see what people do if I step back. My schedule really sucks for the lynch tomorrow, I'll be there two hours before the lynch. Most of my pushing will probably be during that time. Sorry Tere, I know you hate deadline stuff, but given my schedule, I don't see how to avoid it. You guys can help by voting for mafia, and showing why, so I don't have to force a vote switch XD Of course, I'll be there some in the earlier afternoon, just not in full capacity. | ||
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My goal is just to get this lynch on scum, and then redo all of my reads. But really, as long as we get this lynch, we're actually in a good spot. | ||
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On February 19 2015 14:27 The Shining wrote: If there is any reason whatsoever for me to doubt my EOD capacity, I will make it very clear. I hate EOD excuses, but it's far better that I'm transparent about it.I was, Trfel. I'm pretty sure we're the only 2 here. And ok, that's all I wanted for now, anyway, thank you. And this next lynch will either bag us scum or put us into Lylo. I hope you can see, objectively, why I'm worried about you preemptively giving an EoD excuse for the second time in as many Day phases. I hope you manage to use the time you do have before EoD productively. Again, I'll be here at least 2 hours before EOD. | ||
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On February 19 2015 14:32 The Shining wrote: I was about to go to sleep.Lol I agree, hence not calling for your head right now lol. Alright, I'm out for a little bit. Just got home, time to make good on these dives. Ugh, fine, you convinced me, I'll do my best to get through some filters. | ||
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On February 19 2015 14:38 The Shining wrote: Every atom of my body is begging for sleep.lol? I'm on a night schedule, this is my best time to do so. I understand it being late for you and wanting to go to sleep, though, I wasn't implying you stick around and dive with me. If you want to sleep, sleep. I just promised dives on certain people and the last thing I want is someone trying to use a lack of reading to try and push me tomorrow. If we lose because of my mislynch, I obviously need to work on my town game. But I'm honestly not ready for the lynch. My reads aren't at the level I want them at. And I may not get another chance. Keep talking to me if possible, I need the motivation and focus. | ||
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But if you had a spare moment, if you could get a list of who is currently scumreading Tere and their most current reasons for doing so? | ||
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On February 19 2015 14:56 jarjarbinks wrote: Hm, you've been strangely absent for much of the past 24 hours.Poop I just got back. Promised a silver filter read earlier and haven't done it. I'll go through it and call it a night lol Trf: Ya If I remember right I initially read Shining as one of my top two scum early game and switched it in the post you quoted. Let me know if you got questions while I dive. Might be a quick filter dive cuz its silver lolz | ||
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You didn't have to analyze them, that was what I was going to do XD I already went through Silverarte's case. While it's not horrible, I disagree with most of it. One part that I feel would be useful to cover is the sentiment that Tere has been asking for a lot of reads without providing her own. That argument could be made until she posted those massive Walls of Text. Tere has obviously been working hard and contributing a ton, even if you (foolishly) discount her filter length as a bunch of 1-liners. | ||
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On February 19 2015 15:17 The Shining wrote: This is really, really, really interesting.But you voted Zlefin after I did but at least an hour before townreading me. What am I missing here? | ||
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On February 19 2015 15:18 Trfel wrote: Actually, never mind, this isn't true?This is really, really, really interesting. | ||
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On February 16 2015 11:39 jarjarbinks wrote: This is all that I see for jarjarbinks scumreading The Shining. Terrible read.Initially I would be worried about Zfelin and Shining (although I really liked Shining's last post about me and Trf) On February 16 2015 12:00 jarjarbinks wrote: And it was retracted 21 minutes later.I retract my position on the shining. Has scumhunted/given reads a lot. I like a lot of the posts too. Solid filter, despite not having many posts. Probably one of my strongest townreads right now. On February 17 2015 04:11 jarjarbinks wrote: Jarjarbinks voted for zlefin the next day. Significantly later.##Vote Zlefin | ||
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On February 19 2015 15:26 Trfel wrote: On second thought, I take this back. Tere's thinking actually makes a lot of sense here.This makes me a little bit more suspicious of jarjarbinks and Tere. Jarjarbinks for making such a terrible read, and Tere for townreading jarjarbinks for quickly retracting the read... when the read is that miserable, it takes no effort to retract. I'm probably going to go to sleep really soon. | ||
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On February 19 2015 15:38 The Shining wrote: Is this directed at me?Did you miss the part where we got at eachother? lol. Also, definitive answer for Silver, please. You leaning scum or town? Anyway, thanks a bunch for digging up all of this. I don't think I see any strong reasons to scumread Tere that I missed, but I'll take another look. | ||
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I'll take a back seat for a while, looking forward to see what you guys come up with. This feels like if we hit scum, it will be one of those awesome success stories XD Hopefully that's enough encouragement. I'll add one more encouragement song. + Show Spoiler + Good luck. Regardless of how this turns out, it's been a pleasure, each and every one one you. Except if Tere is scum, that's more like bamboo torture. | ||
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The Shining, I'm not sure what you're getting at. If we get a scum lynch, it's a completely new game. I would highly expect to win if we get a scum lynch today. That said, I don't think that we can use a potential bus on Silverarte to catch the second scum until after Silverarte flips mafia. Sure, scum would probably attempt a counter wagon. The Silverarte lynch has little momentum vote-wise, and there are several people scumreading Tere. I don't know if that answers your question, but I don't see the current votes/wagons as an indication of Silverarte being town. I would sort of expect this regardless of Silverarte's alignment. | ||
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On February 19 2015 17:05 Tere wrote: Hm. Voting and going away. Illogical suspicions without concrete explanations. Remind you of anything? Morning. I drank too much last night, have an unhappy stomach and am fuzzy headed, but right now I kinda think I wanna do something which will probably bug the crap out of everybody. I kinda think I wanna ##vote Trfel. It's like this. There's a post in my filter where I respond to him and say he's like this weirdly negging boyfriend that's not giving me a lady boner. I just can't shake it, I really can't. It's really bothering me. I need everyone else to go look at Trfel's filter and see what they think. I might just be falling down the rabbit hole, but if so I need to step away from the edge. I need to take the car in for servicing and will be at least 8 or 9 hours. I won't be able to post but I will try and grab a coffee and do a full read and reset. | ||
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I also note that you only voiced genuine suspicions of me right after I said that I would be busy the next day.... hrmph. | ||
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On February 19 2015 22:46 zlefin wrote: I don't think the current vote distribution is problematic at all. No one has started seriously pushing yet.what a wide distribution of vote targets. It does not speak well of our chances I think. | ||
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On February 20 2015 03:02 ElyAs wrote: I'm sorry, I don't understand this at all.Consider this. There are 3 distinct scenarii that could be happening right now. 1) This is a game with scum being godfather / goon. Trfel is the godfather and is playing like town, but with ambiguous behaviour, as noted by The Shining in the beginning of the game. This is to draw a possible cop to check him and return with a green check. Also, he was quite ready to jump the gun on Tere even tho she has been breadcrumbing all this time (more on this in the third scenario). He was on the same timing as Tere/me on Hier's lynch. Day 2 he has been discussing with us, but something feels... off ? He is distancing himself from some easy lynches, maybe he didn't want to start an obvious wagon as scum. At the time he said he didn't want to lynch me, I was still very much a target. 2) Same case, godfather / goon. This time godfather is The Shining, who started to set up Trfel and paint him as godfather. His outburst could be a last ditch effort to appear as frustrated town. This scenario is possible but I'm not sold on it. I thought of this possibility yesterday, which is why I did put him as slight scum. (My first intention was actually to create a "Confusing" category just for you.) 3) Scum setup is roleblocker / goon. Tere is scum and breadcrumbing to confuse us because there is a 25% chance for a particular role to - not be present - be compatible with another role. Which would then be opened for a scumclaim. I dunno if Tere is willing to take this 25% chance as scum, but for the sake of discussion, let's say yes. There is also the probability that that particular blue role is not willing to claim. (unlikely) If that's the case, I was sold on that breadcrumbing and this explains my strong read on Tere. I'm not talking about any scumpartners right now because I believe scum between those 3 is gonna be the most dangerous of scums. Right now, I'm thinking scenario 1 is the most probable. | ||
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This makes no sense at all and you know it. This is so bad, it makes me wonder if Tere is scum. I don't even have words for this. People, use common sense, think of logic instead of this nonsense. What the heck is tank scum, anyway? | ||
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Why would I bus Silverarte? When I made my case on Silverarte, there was very little, if any, pressure on Silverarte at the time (just a one-liner from rsoultin and a little bit from ElyAs, which was posted after I was working on my case). Your reasoning to lynch me first is terrible, you just want to lynch me before I get a chance to show why I am right. NOTE THAT ALL OF THIS ONLY STARTED AFTER I SAID I WAS GOING TO BE BUSY TODAY!!!! | ||
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On February 20 2015 03:14 Trfel wrote: Actually, no. This isn't throwing the game. I'm pretty sure that only a mafia!Tere would play like this. Look at the timing, look at the change in perspectives. It all makes sense.Wow. You guys are seriously going to throw the game. This makes no sense at all and you know it. This is so bad, it makes me wonder if Tere is scum. I don't even have words for this. People, use common sense, think of logic instead of this nonsense. What the heck is tank scum, anyway? You know what, Tere? I'll bring my laptop to class, or maybe skip class. You're trying to get rid of me, it won't work. | ||
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I've been a consistent town read all game, and for a reason. I've been leading the town (with the help of rsoultin), promoting discussion, asking questions, and thinking critically. My reads have often been copied by people, INCLUDING TERE. I've provided the largest number of cases out of anyone. I'm just not able to replicate this play as mafia. Anyone who has played with mafia!Trfel or wants to read my mafia game knows this. When I said that my filter speaks for itself, I don't mean the length. I mean the consistent scumhunting, and trying to solve the game. | ||
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Sorry, I'll try to calm down. But this push is terrible. I don't even need to see the reasons, if it is an associative case, it's terrible. "I reread the thread and redid all my reads" is a horrible excuse. If anything, that indicates that Tere wasn't reading carefully the first time, which is countered by her seeming confidence and effort in the Walls of Text. | ||
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VT is a role. Mafia goon is a role. Don't believe me? Look at the second post in the thread. Possible roles list includes VT and mafia. Still don't believe me? It's called a role PM. Still don't believe me? I've already expressed in previous games (probably Newbie Mafia LX obs chat, though I'm sure I can find it somewhere) that VT is my favorite role. The potential breadcrumbing was talking about role at the same time as night kill choices. I don't care. I can't be trying to get an easy lynch on Tere if I made it clear that I wanted to give her more time while everyone else was scumreading her (BASED ON MY CASE!!!). | ||
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On February 20 2015 03:53 zlefin wrote: Fine. I have other things to deal with. But it won't matter, we're not lynching anyone other than me, Tere, or Silverarte today (not because of gladiating or anything, just because that's how it will work).trfel and jarjar, I'd still really like those lists from you two, especially trfel who I know has been around and seen it. Probably Town: The Shining Slight town lean: ElyAs, jarjarbinks, zlefin Scum lean: Tere* Moderate scum lean: Silverarte As for Tere, I need to take a detailed look at why exactly she claims to have arrived at this conclusion. Everything about what she is doing is screaming scum. But there is a chance that she is just town and making a horrible blunder. Tere, not going to gladiate. That said, it seems rather likely that one of us will be lynched today. All logic says that will be you. With your experience and my inexperience, I'm not sure. | ||
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On February 20 2015 03:10 Tere wrote: Tere, all the evidence you mentioned here is purely associative reads. I'm really looking forward to seeing other evidence.Now, here are my two scumreads. There is quite a lot of mental distance between the two lists for me. I feel there is a very good bet this is the scumteam. I'd say I am 95% sure, for those of you who like percentages. Silverarte - assistant scum, currently be bussed by obvscum Trfel in an attempt at towncred. Trfel - tank scum. Probably the Godfather, if I were to guess. I think this scum team really stacks up - there is clearly a more active scum around given the lack of obvscum in the quieter players, and it's not me and I don't believe it's the Shining, I have a strong townread on him now. If you do an associative read on these two it's also looking pretty likely. I am going to do a full case on the pair of them and a look at associative reads. This is going to be long and detailed and it is a lot of work so you have to bear with me for a couple of hours. | ||
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On February 20 2015 04:01 ElyAs wrote: Who did you save and why?Ok I'm gonna commit, I volontarily omitted the punchline to my scenarii post. I'm Wendy Testaburger, town Doctor ! Which is why I can say with such confidence that the role distribution is either : 1 Godfather, 1 Goon, 1 Doc, 1 Vigilante, 5 Vanilla Town or 1 Roleblocker, 1 Goon, 1 Doc, 6 Vanilla Town My point is, Tere has been breadcrumbing blue, but most importantly, she has been breadcrumbing Vigi adding to my strong townread. Proof : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=44#874 "The two people I would shoot right now are The Shining and Silverarte." Why is she saying this while nobody has asked her who'd she shoot ? If this is true and Tere is Vigi, then we have a godfather that played like there could be cops around, while there are none. If this is false... GG Tere, I got fooled and luck was on your side. | ||
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On February 20 2015 04:03 ElyAs wrote: Thank you.I saved Trfel N1 because he was my top townread at the time. If you are in fact town (I am not going to lynch you, so I don't care to check the validity of your claims at the moment, I have a more pressing issue at hand), please stay sensible. I will explain myself clearly, and I know that my arguments are superior. That said, I have never had to seriously defend myself before. I have no experience with it at all. Tere is rather experienced at both town and scum play, I'm sure she has aggressively pushed town players who had strong thread presences when she is scum. Her tone will sound better than mine, her persuasiveness will be more than mine. Just please, don't sheep her. Don't sheep me. Look at our arguments and decide for yourself who is correct. Next, I will demonstrate why Tere is not the vigilante. | ||
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The answer is no. If they did shoot on Night 1, then it would have had to be at rsoultin (the night kill) or me (the doctor save). Since we were both basically unanimously townread, both of these shots would have been terrible. We can safely assume that the vigilante did not do this. Imagine the scenario in which we mislynch today. That leaves us with 4 town and 2 mafia. Mafia will kill a town, at night, so 3 town and 2 mafia, LYLO. If the vigilante shoots tonight (Night 2), and hits town, we lose. If the vigilante is that confident in the shot, they should just do it during the day phase like a normal lynch, or get town consensus at night. A decision like that is extremely important to the result of the game, for obvious reasons, the vigilante wouldn't make it alone. If we have a vigilante, their role has very little use for the rest of the game. Therefore, if we did have a vigilante, they would have shot on Night 1. A miss on night 1 would put town at MYLO, which is far superior to LYLO. In addition, town would get rid of one of the scummiest targets. Vigilantes are NOT meant to be used to get rid of mafia, necessarily. That is what the lynch is for. Vigilantes are BEST used to get rid of question marks like lurkers. That is the true power of the vigilante. Imagine if all of the players at Day 1 were in the night phase. The vigilante would shoot Hier, a question mark. Hier would flip town, but that saves town a mislynch, and town no longer would spend energy and time discussing him. An ideal Night 1 vigilante shot would probably have been Silverarte, the lurker. Is it okay if we had a vigilante and they didn't know this? Yes, it's okay. HOWEVER, remember that Tere is rather experienced at the game, and I am positive that she knows all of the above. And if vigilante really is her favorite role, I would hope that she knows how it works, and the best way to use it. Therefore, Tere is not the vigilante. | ||
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And do you understand what I'm saying about why Tere isn't the vigilante? | ||
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On February 20 2015 04:24 ElyAs wrote: It's a completely hypothetical scenario. I'm well aware that the vigilante is a standard night shot vigilante. Just imagine that the town was the nine of us at night, and you can see why the vigilante would help.Your point on the day shot is moot, the role is a night vigi as per the OP. | ||
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Still, it's generally best for the vigilante to shoot on Night 1. In normal games, that is considered standard play. Maybe in such a small game (9 players) it is different, but I doubt that. | ||
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On February 20 2015 04:28 Trfel wrote: Yeah, never mind about my reasoning then. It's flawed.Actually.... last Newbie Mafia game I played, town was not allowed to no lynch. Still, it's generally best for the vigilante to shoot on Night 1. In normal games, that is considered standard play. Maybe in such a small game (9 players) it is different, but I doubt that. I still maintain that my behavior towards Tere is completely unaffected based on how she is "breadcrumbing" or not breadcrumbing her role, whatever that may be. If she isn't going to claim, I don't care if she's breadcrumbing. I'll push who I think is scummy, I'll lynch who I think is scummy. It makes no sense to avoid lynching someone for breadcrumbing only. Note that Tere also said she wouldn't claim to avoid being lynched. | ||
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For one, it's a terrible idea to counterclaim to something that slight. Tere could easily take it all back as a misinterpretation, especially when she posted in bold and all caps telling people not to claim as a result of what she was doing. So claiming would serve zero purpose. Second, scum doesn't have that much more incentive to shoot someone who is breadcrumbing that slightly. Normal roleclaims have some of their power because if they are town, they are a high risk to get shot by the mafia. A slight breadcrumb like this avoids much of this risk, therefore it deserves a lot less importance on it. | ||
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On February 20 2015 04:45 ElyAs wrote: I don't get it.Placing my vote now because I can't stay in front of my computer. I'll read the thread and I'll be back at least one hour before EoD. My decision is not final, but It's consistent with my train of thought. You are scumreading me for the sole reason that you think I am the godfather. And you didn't respond to why that is nonsensical. Maybe there are some parts in my play that look scummy because I AM NOT PERFECT? There are parts in EVERYONE'S play that look scummy. Are they all godfathers? | ||
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Let's assume that both mafia vote for me as well. That means that all remaining town need to vote for the same target. | ||
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How about a Silverarte/Tere scumteam? I happened upon the possibility by accident. Do you see how Tere townread Silverarte for tone, despite Silverarte having done nothing? And after I voiced my suspicions of Silverarte, Tere changed her read to a scumread when Silverarte suspiciously appeared in the thread right after. Tere, you said you want to settle the lynch early. It's less than four hours for the deadline, and you still haven't started your push. Make your case now, so I can decide if you are scum and I have time to prepare a defense. You can't expect me to defend myself if you don't give me time to do so. To this point, I have addressed every accusation thrown at me and have come out with logically superior arguments. | ||
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If that hasn't been enough, then I don't know what to say. I feel extremely betrayed by a town that I gave my very best effort for. I could post more reasoning, but no one seems to be listening. Those of you who are town, when I flip, I expect you to feel guilty. You deserve it for not treating my case with the same level of critical thinking and care with which I treated yours. Those of you who are scum, well played. I didn't think it was possible. The rsoultin night kill was absolutely brilliant. Tere, if you are in fact scum (which is fairly likely at this point), congratulations. Your scum game is extremely scary. I've wanted to lynch you so many times, but there are so many subtle tells in your filter that seem genuine. And as soon as I townread you and gave you something to work with, you ran with it and never gave me a chance. Absolutely brutal. If there is anyone who is willing to listen, I can explain why I am town. Until then, I give up. Tere, you win. + Show Spoiler + Am I frustrated? Mad? Upset? Yes, yes, and yes. Given the amount of time and effort I have put into this game, would you expect anything different, regardless of my alignment? | ||
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On February 20 2015 05:16 zlefin wrote: I ran across it by accident. You asked me early in day 2, I believe, and I stated this then. That was the same post where I said that I hate association analysis.I have been considering what a silverarte/tere team would do. I thought you didn't like association analysis? Why you up to association analysis now? | ||
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I wish I could be right. If I was right and I knew it, then I wouldn't get lynched right here. My last five mafia games have taught me a lot of things, but how to be right is not one of them. The 25% I posted in my first post? That is actually the number. Incorrect case on batsnacks Incorrect case on Damdred Correct case on KelsierSC Incorrect case on IAmRobik I'm sorry I can't always be right. I don't always have the answers. That doesn't mean I am mafia, that doesn't mean I haven't been trying my very best. | ||
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On February 20 2015 05:23 zlefin wrote: I am resigned. It's over, I'm getting lynched. There are seven people alive, you need four people to guarantee a lynch, so two is in fact halfway there.I find your response strange and suspicious Trfel, it's awfully defensive and worried, and sounds strangely resigned. Why would you feel betrayed by town when there's only 2 people voting on you right now? There's more votes on other people than on you; and the remaining 2 people aren't too likely to vote against you either Trfel, certainly shining has you as the towniest person on his list, and I have no list from Jarjar, but I don't think he's likely to pile on you. It feels like now, and a little while ago, trfel was pushing too strong defensively when not that many people were actually against him. You normally only see that kind of reaction when it's near or past half the town voting that way, not just 2 people, who could be the scum themselves. That said, I still think Silver is by far the safest lynch choice for today, as this is only an oddity, but could just be people being/feeling weird, or miscounting how many people are on which wagon. Nothing is overly defensive when a player as clearly skilled as Tere says that she is scumreading you with 95% confidence and a case is coming. That clearly indicates a hard push, which Tere later confirmed is coming. If I am getting hard pushed, you bet I'm going to defend myself with everything I have, even if it doesn't have popular support yet. I've been pouring my life into this game. There's nothing else I can give. ElyAs is probably town. So if both scum vote for me, that means every single other townie has to be here and vote for the same target. If town doesn't see why I am town, the game is hopeless even if I somehow manage to avoid being lynched today. Maybe I could keep arguing and save myself. But I'm not even sure if I care to, if this is how town will treat me. Zlefin, if you are willing to listen and make your own decisions, I'm more than willing to talk to you about this. I did not receive that indication from ElyAs. Tere, you didn't even need to make a case. | ||
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You need to look at her case. After I flip, you can get rid of these stupid notions of unflipped associative reads and that my play obviously reveals that I am the godfather. Look at the content of her case, ignore the amount, look and see if she is thinking critically. I'm guessing you won't find it. Don't let her get away with lynching me and not even making a case, not even putting herself on the line for it. | ||
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If any townie is willing to talk to me, and listen to me, and reason with me, and keep an open mind, I am willing to do this as well. But you're going to need to say this. I'm not going to defend myself if no one is willing to listen. | ||
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On February 20 2015 05:32 Trfel wrote: See, this is why I am not defending myself. No one cares to listen. No one cares to say why I am being scumread.Again, in case it was missed in all that. If any townie is willing to talk to me, and listen to me, and reason with me, and keep an open mind, I am willing to do this as well. But you're going to need to say this. I'm not going to defend myself if no one is willing to listen. | ||
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What's more, she already scumread me. With 95% or higher confidence. This indicates that she has taken the time to do a full and careful analysis already, so she knows what she is looking for. That should make actually typing up the case much quicker. I almost think that her delay is just to watch me die as I don't even have a case to defend myself against. I can defend myself against arguments. I can't defend myself when I am being lynched with no arguments. She could just be delaying because she knows it's better if I don't get time to pick her arguments apart. Her case had BETTER be up to standards. Take a look at it after I flip. Look back at my initial case on Tere, it still holds true. Look at my posting for the past few hours, while most of it is ranting, I have pointed out a ton of reasons why Tere's play is extremely suspicious as of late. I need to head out for a bit, I'll be back soon. | ||
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And after I get lynched, I will make my non game-changing goodbye post. You bet it will be harsh. Those of you who are town and lynch me deserve it. The Shining, thanks for being willing to think openly. If there is anything whatsoever that I can do for you, any question you want answered, any case you want me to build (except Tere, since I can't do that until she posts), I can do that. | ||
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On February 20 2015 06:04 Tere wrote: If I were scum conceding, then the game would already be over.Lookit all the appeals to emotion there. Hey, Trfelscum, you conceding? Epic incoming WOT once I have put some bold in. Town Trfel is conceding. | ||
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On February 20 2015 06:04 Tere wrote: And, WHAT THE HECK ELSE am I supposed to appeal to when I am being scumread but not told the reasons?Lookit all the appeals to emotion there. Hey, Trfelscum, you conceding? Epic incoming WOT once I have put some bold in. This case took you a heck of a long time to prepare. It had better be worth the wait. | ||
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On February 20 2015 06:04 Tere wrote: If you really thought I was scum, you wouldn't have even had to say "Trfelscum", you would have just said "Trfel".Lookit all the appeals to emotion there. Hey, Trfelscum, you conceding? Epic incoming WOT once I have put some bold in. | ||
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Retract that part of your case immediately or I will have to ask for you to be modkilled. | ||
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On February 20 2015 06:21 Tere wrote: I don't care how relevant it is to your case.Nice try. The Scum coaches are listed right in the intro posts. I have no idea whose your is or even if you have one, I have no idea what they have said to you, and I am not speculating on it. It's perfectly fine to say I respect scum Damdred's play, because he's good. Daam... I will, however, remove it if the GMs ask me too, of course. It's hardly a major part of the case, and I am perfectly happy it stands on its own merits. It says in the rules that there is to be no discussion of coaching. Don't edit it out, that's worse. Just accept that you are not allowed to use that argument. | ||
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1. I'm sorry, I suffer from pride. And I am vain. If I am staying up super late at night and working hard, I want people to know about it. It's not a good attitude, but as much as I want it to not be true, I want credit for my work. It's only human. My end of Night 1 post is fine. Why should I make it exactly clear who I want to lynch when we have an entire 48 hours to prepare for that lynch? That's just stupid to trust my reads that much. Why am I asking what rsoultin thinks of my alignment? It's good to check and make sure rsoultin's thinking makes sense. It's an easy thing for me to do, because I know my alignment, so that eliminates an uncertainty. While I accepted rsoultin as town, you yourself said that you would never be more than 95% sure of anything, and asking for rsoultin's reasoning for her read on me is a fair way to be cautious. 2. And what if I made cases and stuck to them after I saw evidence to the contrary? When I started playing mafia, I thought the same way you show here. Then I learned that almost never is there a case so strong you can just stick with it, no matter what happens. Artanis taught me in Imperial that you need to be fluid with your reads, willing to change them and re-evaluate (yes I know he was scum, he still taught me this). If I wasn't willing to re-evaluate my reads, that might indicate that I was scum. As it is, you can see clear, logical reasons for why I made every single read change. There is no reason not to accept this as town-motivated behavior. As for my reads being apparently hard to find, this isn't really the case. I showed suspicions of The Shining, then ElyAs, then Tere, then Silverarte. Or something like that, I can't remember exactly in what order I did what. Note that I am always uncertain of my reads, this has always been the case. Rsoultin is very clear about this in her goodbye post. As to why I am uncertain about my reads, it's because I have been wrong a lot. Surely no one else is guilty of being wrong. I'm trying to learn from my mistakes, and so far this has told me to doubt myself. What you DO see in my filter is me investigating and evaluating everything, responding to everyone, and most importantly, providing insights, critical thinking, and reads for everyone to see. Do I have to be 100% confident about who is scum when I am constantly filter diving and critically thinking about what people are doing? I don't think so. I'm not going to explain all of my examples. I'll just jump to the "worst" one, my post on zlefin. First of all, I realized something wasn't clear, so I decided to clarify it. And am I allowed to say that I don't have enough information? It would be stupid to always think that I had enough information to decide. I didn't identify his alignment conclusively, but look at what I DID see. I saw that zlefin was showing indications of scumhunting and a town explanation for his behavior, while he was being widely scumread. At the time, most people were scumreading zlefin. Now, zlefin is usually null or higher. I saw this before everyone else did, I went back and explained zlefin's table using his filter, I investigated his behavior and found a town explanation for it. Does that mean he is definite town? Of course not. If I have to dig through his filter to find his reasoning, and if I have to really search to show that he is critically thinking, it would be horrible if I instantly accepted him as town. With my post in mind, I made a few suggestions to him, and he changed his play AND THAT IS WHY HE ISN'T BEING UNANIMOUSLY SCUMREAD RIGHT NOW. 3. I HAD NO CLUE WHAT RSOULTIN WAS DOING WHATSOEVER. I have never ever attempted to find blue roles. Never. I saw something I didn't understand, and I asked about it. Would you expect otherwise? A few posts later, I found out what rsoultin was getting at. I expressed frustrations at myself for drawing attention to it, and I was a bit annoyed that rsoultin brought it up in the first place. This is clearly obvious if you read what actually happened. THERE IS A THING CALLED A PRESSURE PUSH. That was my intention. After rsoultin died, the thread was dead and inactive. Right before that, I expressed how I was not confident in lynching you right at the start of the day. Do you really think I would go back on that, if not for a pressure push? 4. Maybe I attacked your reads because I saw something scummy there? Many of the things you said have looked like scum. They have looked suspicious. Rsoultin agreed with me, as did most of the game. I later overlooked them because I felt that as a whole, your play was towny enough to do so. So you are actually saying that I am scummy for criticizing your reads? I'm not criticizing your reads for the purposes of doing so, I'm criticizing your reads for the purposes of determining your alignment. I thought you could make better reads, I wanted to know if anyone else was having the same suspicions. If I'm not supposed to criticize your reads, then you would be allowed to say whatever you want. This is nonsensical. It's not a scum slip to miss a sentence. A scum slip is when you reveal that you are scum. I misread something. Town can misread things, too. 5. Not even reading this. You suffer from connections to Silverarte too. | ||
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For the majority of the game, town has been following my reads. I've been constantly scumhunting and posting reads. I've been critically analyzing the game. I've showed suspicions of Tere which basically everyone accepted at one point in the game. If you are going to turn on all that work, all of my reads, all of the times when you trusted me, just for this case with barely over two hours until End of Day, and not even give me the fairness of an open mind (not a single person responded to my request for this, btw), then consider yourself at LYLO. You deserve it. Tere, I would be honored that you think this highly of my scum game. Except it's probably more likely that you don't. In reality, I feel horribly insulted that you think I am an easy mislynch. It turns out, you were right. There was no way for you to know that I was going to put in so much effort throughout Day 1 that I would tire myself out and I couldn't focus on the game any more. But you did it anyway. And it worked. Believe me, if this was Day 1, I would never go down like this. I've never played for multiple days of a mafia game, and it shows. My method of playing mafia is to play the game in every waking moment, and it turns out that I can't do that for more than three real-life days. I'm tired. I don't have the focus to play to my normal standards. One more thing of note, I spent some of the earlier part of this afternoon trying to meta read Tere. She said several times that she was her favorite role this game. I found a user named Tere on several mafia sites, and in one of them, the same sentence was included that she posted here, so it's the same person. All of the Teres are the same because they all included a cat as the profile picture. While I was unable to conclusively find Tere stating her favorite role, I did find that multiple times, she said that she really enjoyed playing mafia. Keep this in mind. Does that look like bluehunting? You bet. I don't care, I'm already getting lynched. Just keep this in mind. The best I can do is share my thoughts, so at least you can listen to them once I am dead. | ||
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On February 20 2015 06:46 Tere wrote: Your case on me is really bad and wrong. Everything about it seems like mafia. However, I guess I have generally been okay with your play to this point, and I don't have the will to go through your case and see if it says anything about your alignment.OK, so if you are scumreading me Trfel, you should be totally cool with a gladiate. Let's do this. Town, remember this. Do not lynch Tere just because she was wrong about me. If you are going to lynch Tere, do so because you found evidence that she was scum. Being wrong isn't scummy. Tere, I know you are more than willing to die for being wrong on me, but if you are in fact town, that is game ending. You can't possibly expect me to be town and hold you to this unless I believe 100% that you are scum. I don't. | ||
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Trfel
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Trfel's Final Post And you had better listen to it or provide a really good reason not to I'm just going to post this now. I feel no motivation to continue scumhunting at this time. Take a good look at Tere. My initial case on Tere was posted here. Even though I later townread Tere, this case never lost its validity. You can evaluate the strength of the points for yourself, but keep in mind something critical. Tere is an extremely, extremely skilled player. Her actions themselves are generally acceptable and you can find a townie reasoning for it. My point is that the reasoning behind her actions is weak, and her actions seem to have a scum motivation. For example, take a look at how her reads follow mine. I townread zlefin, The Shining, and ElyAs while Tere was scumreading them. Later, Tere's reads changed. Note that I scumread Silverarte while Tere was townreading her, and then Tere's read changed. I'm not going to find the quotes for these, you can do that yourself, but believe me, this is true. If Tere was thinking critically about the game, wouldn't she have been able to make at least one of those reads before I was? Also, notice how she decided to hard push me despite following my reads for the entire game. Look at the way that Tere pushed me. I finally gave her a somewhat confident townread for the first time in the game. This makes it hard for me to reverse it to a scumread, and it makes Tere's push no longer an OMGUS. Then, I said I was going to be busy for much of today before EOD. Then, Tere announced that she was suspicious of me but needed to look through my filter, and then with something like 6-7 hours left until EOD, Tere announced 95+% confidence in my being scum with Silverarte. She finally posted with barely more than two hours left until EOD. Note that this is the same Tere who expressed her desire to get the lynch settled before the last moment. Take a look at the quality of Tere's case. Is she intentionally stretching things, intentionally misrepresenting me? I believe she is. Does that make her mafia? That's up to you. | ||
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Trfel
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I'll keep watching. If anyone has any specific questions for me, I will answer. Until that, I am done. Tere, I don't swear. Not in real life, and certainly not in a forum mafia game. I'm not going to change that just for you, but it is difficult. I hope you are proud of yourself for mislynching the person whose reads you followed (though I'm sure you won't admit it) the entire game. | ||
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Trfel
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Again, don't commit to lynching Silverarte after me, either. Take your time and choose the next lynch wisely. And no matter what you decide on Tere, don't listen to her. If her reads are this horrible, she should not be leading town, regardless of her alignment. | ||
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Trfel
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I was okay at promoting discussion, and moderating arguments (I know, ironic given recent events). I was wrong, but that's a player skill problem. I don't know how to improve on that. Other than that, the only thing lacking is my style. Apparently people here don't like my style. I'll have to look into fixing that. Though people have always been fine with my style before, I don't see why it's only a problem now. I'm going to post this. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/472628-tl-mafia-lxix-carol-of-the-bells?page=122#2423 This was probably my finest moment in TL Mafia to date, I solidly caught scum in a foolproof case. Read it, so you'll wish I was here when you mislynch again tomorrow. | ||
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Trfel
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I could make a really good case on Tere. It wouldn't be hard to do. I am fairly good at making convincing cases. The problem is, just because I see a convincing case on someone doesn't make them scum. Maybe my problem is I am too honest. I'm supposed to lie about how strong I think my reads are. Or maybe the problem is that I'm just terrible at making reads. In that case, you are all even worse for following my reads for a day and a half. | ||
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I won't tell you what to do. Just do what you think is right. | ||
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On February 20 2015 07:22 jarjarbinks wrote: Everyone is on me because they refuse to keep an open mind.Just saw the votes. Why is everyone voting Trf? Scum slip? I should read. I have an hour and a half right? Again, people can feel free to ask me questions. I will do my best to answer. Tere, if you ask me a question, no guarantees. Otherwise, I doubt I'm going to do anything else but mope. | ||
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On February 20 2015 07:27 The Shining wrote: No, but it makes sense if you assume that Silverarte has a happy, jovial character.Doesn't seem worried at all about being lynched/mislynched. Just afkd a vote with the caveat that it'll be explained...if she lives. This isn't the post of a town about to get mislynched. My biggest reason to scumread Silverarte is how she doesn't seem to be scumhunting. I only see one instance in her filter where she provides an actual read, on Tere. She seems more focused on conversing with the thread than scumhunting, as if to make it seem like she is doing more than she actually is. | ||
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On February 20 2015 07:33 Tere wrote: It's not an obvious lie. Maybe I'm wrong, oh well. I don't care to go find the quotes in question. Again, if I had any kind of good evidence, I would have posted earlier. I'm just sharing all of my thoughts, just in case someone cares.True facts. I've caught Trfel in an out and out lie about my activity on other sites, and he's obscum, but she's his scum buddy. I'd rather kill him but I'm happy with either of them. As long as we lynch the other one tomorrow. | ||
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Trfel
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That's why if you are scum, I'll be really mad at myself. I had you all caught Night 1, and you know it. If I wanted to, I'm pretty sure I could have pushed for your lynch and gotten it. But I'm willing to re-evaluate and reconsider things. | ||
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Current lynch aside. You have a new perspective and a new set of experiences that I don't think is similar to that of many people on this site. Assume for a moment that I am town. Can you please tell me what I should do to improve my play for next game? And yes, this is a serious question. I'm always looking to improve. | ||
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I don't think it would, the point is useless anyway. So I see no use in it. | ||
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On February 20 2015 07:50 jarjarbinks wrote: What would you expect from Trfel who has been carrying town on his back for one and a half days, and now is getting lynched and there are townies who don't even listen to him?Wow... Trfel late defense is what i'd expect from scum Trfel with a chance to survive. I need to filter dive Trfel. I still have an hour right? Here's a hint, it would look a whole lot like my posting for the last couple of hours. | ||
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Trfel
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On February 20 2015 07:52 The Shining wrote: As much as I want to just leave, I can't get myself to. If I went to sleep now, it would really mess with my sleep schedule, anyway.With the understanding that you come back before EoD, right?? Or did you really just tell Trfel to AFK EoD because he said all he had to say. I guess I'll just wait for Silverarte to post, and it'll probably be horrible, and I'll probably tear it apart. | ||
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Trfel
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If you insist on complementing my scum game, please save it for after I flip. You can lynch me, you can call my play terrible, fine. Just don't make it more painful than this already is for me, please. | ||
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Trfel
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On February 20 2015 07:57 zlefin wrote: I'm in the US. It's still afternoon here. Thanks for your permission, though I won't take it.The wagons have already been made, tere made her case, trfel made his defense. Both have been done at length with back and forth. I don't see anything important or new being added about it. more importantly though: This is fun, but it's still ultimately a game, and less important than real life and health. And sleep is very important for health. | ||
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Trfel
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Look at how much Silverarte has tried to seem helpful and interactive. Then look at how many genuine reads she has provided. Look at how much of what she has done seems to be critically thinking. Here's a hint: she's tried to seem very helpful and interactive, provided one real read, and little critical thinking. This is rather obvious. I made a post on it a while back, and she has done nothing to change this. How about this? That one case I reference that she made? She only made it because I voted for her. | ||
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On February 20 2015 08:22 jarjarbinks wrote: Just stay here until I finish my case. You owe me that much at least.Ugh. You have a point lol Is it because she is having trouble playing the game/busy or is it because she's scum? Your EOD D1 play though. The more I look at your filter the more Tere's case stands out. | ||
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Trfel
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This is Silverarte's first actual post. And it is terrible. It shows no thinking, just recounting what has happened. I'm not going to quote all of the activity excuses. But at this point in the game, you can't get by on just activity excuses. Of course that doesn't make Silverarte scum, though. Look at the number of activity excuses. Instead of doing all that, she could have read another filter or something. Keep this in mind when I get to how few reads she has made. She's just more focused on discussion than scumhunting. On February 16 2015 22:39 Silverarte wrote: Look at this, and look at zlefin's filter. Everything referring to Silverarte is two one-liners. This is EXTREMELY defensive, and she has already posted her schedule and other excuses for being away. Not necessary at all.@zlefin I appreciate the concern about activity and all that, but remember. I live in the US and I posted my schedule up. On Saturdays, I work for ten hours then went out for Valentines out here. While I appreciate activity might signify something, at the same time, understanding for the holiday I feel should be in there somewhere too. Now, that said and behind us, my question for you is this. The scumread list you gave, can I ask what gives you the thoughts that Jarjar and Hier are on the lynch list. Also, if I'm reading the way you have that list right, Rsoultin is on the lynch list too, is that correct? (It's the points I'm trying to sort out). On February 16 2015 22:39 Silverarte wrote: And how hard is it to get reads from Silverarte? So far we have a scumread on Hier for extremely boring reasoning, and a bunch of nulls.@hier I appreciate frustration here, but it still seems like pulling teeth to get reads and the why from you. As nothing has been put up to change my mind and it's still a fight with getting your reads and such? Nothing personal but my vote is on you. ##Vote: Hier On February 17 2015 13:27 Silverarte wrote: This analysis is weak, and much of it is just sheeping me. You can say that it hints of scumhunting, but looking at Silverarte's filter from last game, I felt that it was better. All in all, this is a nice post to see, but not unexpected from scum, either. Look at the bottom paragraph, it's almost as if she is distancing herself from the read, in addition to sheeping it.Hmm, ok. So I'm going to start posting this stuff up as I get my thoughts in order (and hopefully without random copy/paste cut offs!) Let's see. I'll post up thoughts on Tere first! (Then Tere, I'll give you my thoughts for everyone since I did see you asked for that as well as Trfel. Also, by the way? HILARIOUS gifs! Loved coming back to those.) ALright, so back to the read on Tere here. -Jump on the bandwagon with Hier. Later, seems relatively unaffected considering all the effort placed here. Note, I'm not going to stare sideways too much for that one with Hier. That was a lynch gone bad, or so it felt to me with the way Hier was reacting. -Scumread list definitely is skewed to the most experienced players at the top (I did peek at your post Trfel before popping this up - darn you for being faster than me this round!), but I feel Zlefin may not be a bad read where she placed him. I think at this point, I'd really like to see what Tere has to say here. -I think my biggest issue where Tere is, really is in the communication with Hier, the scum reading and then yes, the counter wagon that was met with little to no attempts. But, this could be attributed to tunneling. I just think a lot of effort went into this here, with little attempts to other things she said. It does come off as contradicting itself. I agree with suspicion here, but I'm not sure Tere is an immediate lynch. Like I said, I'd really like to see what Tere has to say and go from there. I'm suspicious, but I some of the others catch my eye a bit more. I'm not all that unconvinced that you are on the wrong track, Trfel. This read on zlefin is extremely weak. I demonstrated how easy it is to look through zlefin's filter and see how that corresponds to his number system. Apparently Silverarte could type up all of this, but not figure out that zlefin's filter and his point system were in fact directly related. On February 18 2015 04:02 Silverarte wrote: She comes back RIGHT AFTER I VOTE HER.Woo! Back! How's it going so far? Also, so far, what is everyone's top? Rather than two bullets, how about one? On February 19 2015 06:53 Silverarte wrote: Boring post, and then she asks if it's enough to save her. She seems to be trying to slide by and do the absolute minimum.Ok, so I backtracked and caught up and it looks like the most pressing thing right now is to clear my name. So if I'm missing questions, please feel free to point them out and I'll get right on that. Now first off, I see I wasn't clear about the two bullet question I had. I meant for that to be directed at Tere, who at the time, was not giving us an answer for anything when I posted that. My main hope had been that perhaps I'd be able to one answer from her if not the two. I was obviously not clear and hadn't noticed that at the time. Now, as for the cases on Tere and Zlefin: -You've stated it yourself Trfel. This is a newbie game. For all Tere has mountains of experience elsewhere, Zlefin does not and Tere still had more to come. Moreso, it was N1 with all of us metaphorically twiddling our thumbs to wait for the results. We had, as of then, over two more days to figure out who our next lynch was be. With D2 around the corner, my thought was we had time to figure out just what Tere was doing and where Zlefin was going to pop up as. (Speaking of, good job Zle. You stepped up the game on those explanations when you're assigning points). Now, I agreed with your case. I could have copy/pasted it over or pull over additional information (and am more than happy to break it down), but as I said, we had more time to figure it out. -I have asked a couple times if anyone's had questions for me. While people have interacted with me, I've not seen many questions until Tere joined us and did that odd play with the bullets. On that note, if anyone has other questions for me now, please feel free to ask. -If we review where my votes have been. Tere pointed out the way things worked out with Hier and I've explained my thought processes with my previous scum reads. That said, I felt I've been consistent with my reads. Is this enough to save me this round? Not sure! I'll just have to keep playing and prove I'm town. (Also, sidenote. Tere? You so made me want to go watch the Beetlejuice movie now.) (The following quote is in spoiler because it is darn long, not because it is not important. It is the best part of Silverarte's filter, and thus must be considered) + Show Spoiler + On February 19 2015 10:50 Silverarte wrote: Challenge accepted Tere! =D (Also..nothing personal! You've been great to read. Also, sweet dreams when you get there) ------------------------------ Let's see. A majority of Tere's posts are actually centered around one liner posts with larger ones poking in here or there. Now, she flips from town to scum, town to scum. Now, I'm going through posts bit by bit here. But as a history: - Townie, fun, light hearted beginnings. -Centers in on Hiel. -Backs off after lynch is made -Goes into the Two-Shot question, with a general refusal to answer it for herself. -Answers -Active day -Positive reads of who she's now reading as scum -reads scum, switches scum reads again -Gets angry with said scum (where she's been very level for the majority of her game) -Comes back and withholds opinions, but hints at them -Later pops them up -Still in scum fight with The Shining --General reads for scum: to (after the last will and testament which was not originally going to be put up until everyone else answered the question. The following is an analysis written right after that) If this paragraph is too long to revist, the scumteam is: The Shining and ElyAs. Inbetween this long awaited series of analysis and during it, reads on me are generally pleasant and wonderful. She's also prolific with her calls on "Don't judge me for what my actions are". Now, if we aren't judging based on actions and votes, what do we judge on? Now, her filter was rather prolific today which is great! Except...all of a sudden, there is a switch in tone on those votes. We go from hunting down other targets, to hunting down me based on Trfel's analysis. Rather than going with your initial votes and feels, you switched and trailed on with Trfel (which I was accused of doing) In fact, it's: Then the contribution is noted, and left alone. Why so hesitant to share thoughts? And why so insistant that we base our thoughts in one direction when according to you on several occasions, you admited you base things on tone. This is a fantastic tool, but it's an imperfect science and one we all pointed out to several of the others who joined us (Zlefin, etc). You, yourself have been very pleasant and forward, but very much pushing for others thoughts and ideas while holding back your own. I don't feel this is reaching, since this isn't the first time this has happened this game. Then there was the debate with Shining, who I believe summed it all up quite well. The tone changed afterwards, but your entire play up until this point has been even playful and cheerful. Here, this entire instance felt (to use a tone read here in addition to everything else I've tossed up), looks pretty bad. Especially with the consistent hold back on answers such as the question Shining gave you, your thoughts with the bullets when many were requesting it and of course, the hinting that there'd be more with other things later. I'm not certain if my vote is on you or not yet, (since we have til tomorrow) but of anyone, it's pretty strongly here and most likely where my vote will lie in the morning. As far as I understood, N2, you are able to take your time and consider before coming down hard on someone or something. (...several hours later....sheesh me. Trfel, I think I take that long time spent posting award. Or at least get one next to yours.) This is her one good post. Still, much of it is just a summary of what Tere has done this game. It's a boring filter. Nothing memorable other than this one post. Reads are rare, and original reads are next to nonexistent. The amount of suspicion on her is directly related to how much she posts and how long her posts are. Silverarte is scum. | ||
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Trfel
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On February 20 2015 08:32 Tere wrote: Seriously. You sound just like a scum trying to force a mislynch.She needs to die, but I'd rather kill Trfel We can kill her tomorrow. | ||
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On February 18 2015 08:59 rsoultin wrote: If this is Truffle's scum game, he's improved by a mile. So I doubt it is. The work he's been putting in is classic town!Trfel, and he's also normally riddled with doubts. The naysayer, if you will, even on his own cases xP On February 18 2015 09:01 rsoultin wrote: Jarjarbinks, if you don't trust me, trust a flipped rsoultin.and I forgot silver lol >< which means she's forgettable, damn Note that you said the most suspicious part of my play was my play at the end of Day 1. I assume you mean the doubt over Hier's flip while still voting for him anyway. I believe that the rsoultin quote covers that. | ||
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Trfel
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On February 20 2015 08:39 Tere wrote: For the last time, gladiating is stupid. And I'm not going to be here tomorrow.You won't mind gladiating me tomorrow, then, will you? | ||
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But thanks for your consideration. I will try to make sure you don't regret it. | ||
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On February 20 2015 08:46 Tere wrote: Long filter = scum isn't a meta on this site.I really hate the long filter /= scum meta on this site. Jarjar, there's a thread showing very clearly that scum can pull off incredibly long filters and discussing town reading due to filter content size not working on the board, discussed very recently. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/477857-activity-and-town-play Look at the content, not the length. Trfel is lying about having found me saying I love playing mafia on other sites. I've caught him in the lie and have provided proof. He's obvscum. He's just trying to survive. If you are 95% confident that the scum team is me and Silverarte, but you are pushing me THIS much, that is making me even more suspicious. I would be comfortable calling you scum right now, but after I flip, you are going to be very much scumread. So I'm not sure what to make of that. Ironically, were I alive tomorrow, I would push for Tere's lynch, but only after she revealed her plan for clearing her name. If you look at Tere's filter, it is full of holes. Look at this entire push. It's horrible. Look at my case on her to start with. Look at all of the suspicious circumstances I have posted with regards to Tere's push, it's all in my filter. | ||
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On February 20 2015 08:46 Tere wrote: There. She realized that she wasn't going to get away with this, and is taking it back.OK, sure. Can we kill Trfel tomorrow if I do it? This just screams scummy. Tere, keep doing this. You're giving yourself away. | ||
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At the moment, I don't have all of the answers. But while mafia!Tere doesn't explain some things, town!Tere doesn't fit this push at all. So I'm pretty sure I can show that Tere is scum if I care to. | ||
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On February 20 2015 08:55 The Shining wrote: Me too. It makes no sense.Silver doesn't does not even seem to care about being lynched. I'm lost. But you know what it makes more sense than? This push on me. | ||
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On February 20 2015 08:56 ElyAs wrote: You guys are going to hate me for this. But I actually don't know?What is going on in this game ? Is scum bussing or are we getting led by the nose ? All I know is, I am town. And I think Silverarte is scum. I'm not 100% confident, but she is the best lynch for now, and definitely better than my 0% chance of flipping scum. | ||
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On February 20 2015 08:57 Tere wrote: QUOTED FOR MEMORYTrfelscum is bussing Silverarte for attempted towncred. He thought he had me in his pocket and made his push too early. Terrible post. Seriously, keep digging your own grave. | ||
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On February 20 2015 08:57 Tere wrote: I don't time my pushes for optimal success. I rely on logic and reasoning, unlike you. I time my pushes WHEN I SEE THEM.Trfelscum is bussing Silverarte for attempted towncred. He thought he had me in his pocket and made his push too early. I try to provide information, you try to get your reads lynched. There is no way I am busing Silverarte here. | ||
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I was the second one to scumread Silverarte, the first one with a serious case. ElyAs was first. If this is a bus, it was terrible. Tere is scum. I'm almost certain of it now. So relieved. I have my motivation again. Tere, you had BETTER kill me tonight. You cannot lynch me if I actually care to play the game. You don't know it yet, but I know I am right. For the record, I called out the Tere/Silverarte scum team quite some time ago. | ||
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Tere is going to discount it as a wall of text. She will call me tunneling, she will call me for paranoia. She will use tone and language to be persuasive. I cannot match her there, but my argument is correct, and I know it. Therefore, read the arguments, keep an open mind, and you will know who is scum. I see no reason to defend myself at the moment. All I have is a scumread on Tere. We have an extra mislynch. For all intents or purposes, Tere or myself will be lynched tomorrow (and no, I'm not going to officially gladiate, that will be stupid). And, I don't care if I die, that will prove that my argument comes from town. | ||
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Tere, http://images.clipartpanda.com/smiley-face-with-tongue-sticking-out-jTxE4Kjec.gif | ||
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Pretty sure that one of us will die. As for this "gladiating" thing, I maintain that it is stupid. If someone wants to vote for someone else, let them. That gives us more information. Tere is clearly scum, it's just that simple. On February 18 2015 14:29 Trfel wrote: Anyone remember this post? This was when I noticed that a Tere/Silverarte scumteam was actually a realistic possibility.I'm sorry, I'm a bit distracted because I think I found something extremely interesting. Unfortunately, it will take some time before I can share, and it's quite likely that I will be proved completely wrong, so no guarantees that you will hear about it again. I see ElyAs' play at End of Day as more like option 2. He stated early on that he was unsure about the Hier lynch. I know it can look scummy, but by no means is it a sure tell (heck, I do that every lynch, if you don't believe me rsoultin already stated that). Maybe his case on Tere took less effort, but that doesn't make him scum. I'll take another look, but I remember his reasoning being acceptable, and that's really what matters. | ||
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I'm really looking forward to making this case on Tere. And I'm really tempted to make it in a format that is as difficult to respond to as possible XD In all seriousness, I will post the case as normal, and then I will post a second version in a format that is simple to respond to if Tere chooses to respond. Conceding is also a reasonable possibility from this position. | ||
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The Shining, do you think I should bother actually going through and defending myself? I personally don't want to, but you could convince me to. | ||
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On February 20 2015 11:27 The Shining wrote: I am making the most massive wall of text in existence on Tere.Gg Silver, sorry you rolled scum. =P And Trfel. Lol. At this point, I wouldn't. I'm pretty sure I hammered it in with the vote analysis, willing to go more in depth if necessary. I want to see reactions to it, because AFAIC, Tere is tomorrow's lynch. Are you going to make a case too? I think it kind of speaks for itself, so it's not actually necessary, but I'm building my case for finality's sake. | ||
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On February 20 2015 11:31 The Shining wrote: Oh, it's definitely coming out before End of Night. Even though me getting night killed is suicide for the mafia (and yes, I guess this is just WIFOM), I'm not taking any risks. I'll get it out as soon as I can (probably early tomorrow afternoon).But yeah, get that case out before EoN, if you can. JJB and Zlef both pinging on me for saying Ely isn't confirmed Doctor shows me Tere isn't as clear to them as she is to us. | ||
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On February 20 2015 11:35 The Shining wrote: Fair enough. That's actually what I was hoping you'd say XDI've been scumming Tere almost non-stop and cased her based on vote analysis. Honestly, with the way its looking, I won't case her unless I'm asked to. I just feel my stance on her has always been pretty clear. It really speaks for itself. Twenty minutes before the lynch deadline, I thought town had absolutely no chance of winning. Now, I think our chances are quite good. | ||
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On February 20 2015 12:04 jarjarbinks wrote: Note that she stopped doing it when the votes started being close.Shining, makes sense. Reading through Tere's filter, it seems like she brings up silverarte regularly in the early game. Her reads went from slight townread to slight scum to thinking silver was in the mafia team. I could see a scum partner doing this, given the lack of posts from silver in the game. Question in her defense: Do you think silver in her mainish and really only scumread of the game, would go after her mafia partner? If she was struggling to make reads because she mafia, I could see it. But I wouldn't think that would be the smartest strategy for the mafia team there, when I believe the votes were still relatively split. I normally wouldn't expect a mafia Silverarte to bus mafia!Tere that much, but when Silverarte started looking doomed, it stopped. Hm. And, Silverarte's cases on Tere seemed far superior to her cases on other players (though all felt a bit hollow). I will fully explain this in my complete case. | ||
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Maybe an argument could be made for it, but there are so many other strong arguments, why use a question mark? | ||
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In the hypothetical scenario that we lynch Tere and she flips town, who do we lynch next? | ||
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On February 19 2015 00:50 Tere wrote: Well, this is interesting. Guess what day tomorrow is.One final factor - if you must mislynch for info, you should do it today, not in D3. Day 3 corresponds to my weekend, when I have far less time to post, and will not have the time or energy to round up stragglers. I will barely have time to read the thread, I certainly won't have time to work on establishing any counterwagons. I'll probably have an hour tops the whole cycle to cover rereading also. It's annoying, but it's what it is. So you need to make this day count, guys. | ||
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On February 20 2015 13:10 The Shining wrote: I understand completely, and you don't need to answer, but I wouldn't mind if you did. I guess it really has no importance.XD. Just left work, mobile time. Yeah, I can do that when I get home, Trfel. I'll answer you when I get home because honestly, I don't see a place where Tere isn't scum. You're hypothetically asking me to consider a diff game altogether, in which I'm wrong about everything if I'm wrong on her. Logic dictates if I'm wrong on her, I'd be wrong on you, as well. It could very well be you, and I'm not intentionally trying to put you two in a Gladiator scenario. But she is scum so point is moot. Side note, I'm trying to do the same bullet point and spoiler format for the case again, and there is just too much that needs to go in the first bullet point. This just feels far, far, far too easy. | ||
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The case is coming along really nicely. I have it mostly done content-wise, just some more analysis on Tere's push on me. Then I have to add The Shining's analysis on his argument with Tere. After that, I have a ton of formatting issues, as there is simply too much to say. But I should definitely be able to get my case out in the earlier portion of tomorrow afternoon. Again, thanks a bunch for trusting me for the Day 2 vote. When you see my case, I'm pretty sure you won't regret it. This is starting to feel like easy cleanup from here. | ||
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Tere is mafia I warn you in advance, this post is probably in contention for the longest post ever Remember, Tere is an extremely capable mafia player. She has shown this by her past experience, awareness of mafia acronyms, and comfort in the game. Therefore, I hold her to a similar standard that I hold myself to (I think she is more skilled than me at this game, but I haven't seen her play before, so I don't think it is fair to judge her more harshly than I judge myself).
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Tere, if you would like to respond, let me know and I can provide a reformatted post to make it easier to respond to. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + This one's for Tere. This is what I felt like when you guys were lynching me. | ||
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On February 21 2015 02:53 ElyAs wrote: I'd have to take a really, really serious look at it then. But it's not going to happen.Your case is good, Trfel. Still, got a bad feeling that I can't shake off, but that's the human nature to doubt. I think it's possible that you are both town and convinced that the other is scum. If that's the case, who do you think is the more likely to be scum ? I've been suspicious of Tere to some extent all game long, but up until the terrible push on me and how she avoided trying to lynch Silverarte, I was okay with Tere being town. I just don't see any possible way that Tere is town here. | ||
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On February 21 2015 09:09 kitaman27 wrote: Hi. Palmar, I don't think I've ever played with you before. I suppose this probably isn't the best way to introduce myself to you.Tere has been replaced by Palmar. Everybody say hi! Palmar, you are going to be lynched. I hope you enjoy it. Don't see you wriggling out of this. Also, why the heck is Palmar replacing into a game on the weekend? From what I've heard, weekends and Palmar don't mix well for mafia. As to Tere being replaced, that was unexpected. If I did anything whatsoever to offend Tere, I am truly sorry. Tere, I would encourage you to try TL Mafia again, and not to get a bad impression because of the entire site and/or playerbase just because of me. | ||
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The Shining, by no means do I intend to waste today. While I do not see myself lynching anyone other than Palmar, simply because I do not see him flipping town, that does not mean that I will stop reading and ignore arguments. Even though I don't see how it is possible, I would be lying if I said I wasn't worried that Palmar would flip town. Again, this is Palmar replacing into a game on a weekend.... which means that literally zero posts from Palmar wouldn't necessarily implicate him. I will look at other possibilities. | ||
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Actually, I'd prefer to see where Palmar stands on this first, if he is willing? Though I can't fault him for spending all of today (normal 24-hour day) defending himself and not filter diving like crazy. But if Palmar doesn't mind, it could be effective if everyone keeps their lynch alternatives to themselves until he shares. It would help get a read on Palmar, which is critical at this point. | ||
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On February 22 2015 02:03 Palmar wrote: I linked it to you when I first greeted you. Here it is.Yeah no, this is not happening. Think about it logically. Who I think is mafia is technically quite irrelevant isn't it? My reads, based on at best loosely skimming end of days, filters, openings and other important things, are never (in theory) going to be as good as the reads of all the other townies in this game. Even if I suddenly became confirmed town, it'd be quite silly to trust me to lead the lynch, seeing as I'm working with far less information than everyone else in the game. I ask again, you say you wrote some case (that I haven't read). Summarize and/or link it here, in a single post, so I can see WHY you think I am mafia. In summary, I think that you are mafia because Tere's reads showed a lack of critical thinking, she had suspicious interactions with our Day 1 (mis)lynch Hier, her interactions with flipped mafia Silverarte were suspicious, and her Day 2 push to get me lynched was a complete departure from logic, so I don't see how town could do that. | ||
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On February 21 2015 01:55 Trfel wrote: Then come Tere's massive Walls of Text at the start of Day 2. Her vote analysis implicates ElyAs and The Shining. She says that ElyAs's vote looks bad for constantly expressing doubt and suggesting that he needs to look for counterwagons, but never actually doing so. Note that Tere suggested several times that she should look for counterwagons, and never did so, either. Of all of us, ElyAs put by far the most effort into looking for counterwagons. Conclusion: Tere's read is perhaps not genuine. As for The Shining, his vote on Hier did not look that good on the surface, but he is honest about it, and I really like that. We all agreed that most of the lynches didn't look good at that time, so it's okay if he is uneasy about it. That said, Tere completely ignores the fact that The Shining's initial pressure on zlefin is exactly that, a pressure (The Shining stated this significantly before this post from Tere). And as a pressure, it actually looks rather towny. Conclusion: Tere's vote analysis is designed to implicate her scumreads, not the other way around. Also note that yet again, Silverarte gets townread for something that I find suspect. Silverarte's vote is ill-explained, and for an easy target, which makes up for her being the second one on the wagon. I also find myself townread for a vote which I don't think looked towny at all. I recently asked The Shining for his opinion on my vote, and here is his response. As for Tere's suspicious behavior towards Hier, everything is just a ton of minor points, and I can't take one specific instance and have it mean anything. In summary, Tere expressed the desire to look for counterwagons and said that it was good that my stance was to go easy when talking to Hier to prevent him from quitting. However, as soon as Hier appeared in the thread, Tere was extremely aggressive towards him and immediately, all of her doubt over his alignment seemed to vanish. Here are Tere's stances on Silverarte and why they are suspicious. The strongest point is that Tere was so determined to lynch Silverarte instead of me, while scumreading us both to the same degree. + Show Spoiler + On February 21 2015 01:55 Trfel wrote: This is Tere's first read on Silverarte. It seems rather easy to accept Silverarte as a bad lynch for Day 1. Tere's link is broken, but in that time period, Silverarte only had one interesting post, describing why she was scumreading Hier. But Silverarte's post is boring and does not show critical thinking. At the end of Night 1, Tere posts her overall reads and voting analysis. Both contain a poor read on Silverarte. In particular, Tere's voting analysis on Silverarte seems rather poor, I get the opposite impression from Silverarte's vote and reasoning. Then I scumread Silverarte. Silverarte immediately and suspiciously enters the thread, and Tere uses this suspicious entrance to scumread Silverarte as well. After several town reads on Silverarte, it seems that Tere is taking this opportunity to leave herself the option to scumread Silverarte if it is necessary. I also note that Tere investigated Silverarte's previous game (a town game), and decided that her play in this game was very similar to her play in last game. Even from the first few posts, they are extremely different. Take a look for yourself. Also extremely suspect is Tere's clear desire to lynch me before Silverarte. As for Tere's push on me.... She decided to suddenly push a player who she had been townreading all game. A player who had been leading town, contributing cases, and sharing thoughts on basically everything in the thread. And she had been following my reads all game long to that point. You don't sheep someone all game long and then decide they are sure scum while keeping all of the reads you copied from them. | ||
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My gut tells me that zlefin is the most likely candidate if Tere/Palmar is town, but I still see this as extremely unlikely. | ||
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But I'm going to be away for most of tomorrow. I'll probably be back right before the lynch, and I can check in once in the afternoon, hopefully. The Shining, if you can get your case out tonight, that would be ideal, so I can give it the full thought that it (hopefully) deserves. | ||
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It's okay, case building takes a ton of time XD | ||
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Again, I'll take a look, and I'll read jarjarbinks' filter, but it's a hard lynch to be confident about just by its nature. | ||
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Or one of us (in practice, only you, because I know for certain I am town) could actually be scum and playing the game of their lives. But I'm just going to say right now that night kills are WIFOM and I'm not going to make any guesses whatsoever as to the night kill. I know your case is nowhere near complete yet. I'm just sharing some thoughts. And believe me, if you are night killed and flip town (or heck, no matter what, even if I get night killed), I'll take a very good look at your case and jarjarbinks' filter. | ||
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I think you are town, and I think you really believe what you are seeing, but I'm not seeing it yet. I'll keep looking. | ||
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I'm going to assume that the answer is yes. How much online mafia experience do you have? Have you played on sites other than TL? Jarjarbinks, please take note of two things. First, it's only natural to try to sell a case when you make it. If it's what you believe, you are going to argue for it as hard as you can, and portray it to be convincing as possible (of course it still must be 100% true, but you want to try and sell it at the same time). I don't know if I explained that very well, if you don't understand, I can try to explain it better. Second, it's extremely hard to remember how everyone played in every game, especially at the level necessary to make solid meta reads like that. This isn't an indication of The Shining being lazy, insulting, ignoring you, or anything like that, it's simply natural. It would be helpful if you provided some quotes from previous games where you said that your reads are bad, though. | ||
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I refuse to attribute anything other than null to jarjarbinks's opening. I've seen openings townread and scumread for all sorts of reasons, and honestly analyzing people's openings just feels like RNG. Maybe the analysis is good, but people aren't very smart, so even capable town players will make openings that seem bad upon further analysis. Second, jarjarbinks was specifically asked for comments on the thread by rsoultin. Let's be honest, you really can't expect anyone (much less a player in a newbie game... As for jarjarbinks saying that his reads are weak, again, my guess is that everyone here (possible exception Palmar, I don't really know how good he is, though I assume he is rather good) has relatively weak reads (compared to the rest of TL Mafia). I don't think that jarjarbinks initially liking Hier's Bridges plan is an indication of him being scum. Your point is that after this analysis, jarjarbinks continues to advocate using the Bridges plan. I don't see that at all, the only indication I see of that is asking Hier if there was a reason to use the Bridges method that was missed in his analysis. Multiple people suggested that there could be some reason for town to use the Bridges method that was not apparent from the method itself, making it a fair thing. In addition, Hier obviously put a lot of effort into his plan, so it seems generally poor to completely discount it without asking him if there are any more reasons in its favor. Third point, that jarjarbinks townread Hier. I disagree with the read, but that doesn't mean that jarjarbinks is scum (town can be wrong). In addition, jarjarbinks is making a read and explaining it, and while I don't agree with it, I can see how he would arrive at that conclusion. I don't see why this is a scum tell. Jarjarbinks reread the thread and changed his mind. While this doesn't look good, I feel that it is plausible early in the game with few pages to work with. In addition, if jarjarbinks is scum, that means that Tere is town, and Tere townread this post for tone and honesty. How can you say that jarjarbinks is constantly sheeping and reading the thread sentiment while also having original reads because everyone else says the opposite? I sometimes like posts that are scumreading me. For example, yours from earlier this game That said, I found this post where jarjarbinks explains his read (before the post in response to rsoultin) where he explains it a little better. Still, his read seems passable, though the explanation changed a bit for seemingly little reason, which is a tad suspicious I suppose.I don't see the relation between jarjarbinks knowing that The Shining scumreads those who scumread him and anything in the paragraph before it. What scum game do you refer to? I'm pretty sure jarjarbinks has never rolled scum. And I don't see him mention this in his filter. Some of these sentences feel like they are responding to something that rsoultin said, not jarjarbinks? I personally felt that jarjarbinks' comment was interesting and insightful. And if you're going to pick on someone for white knighting this game, it should be me. I've defended basically everyone at some point. My inclination is that jarjarbinks saw me being suspicious of you for a poor reason and (correctly) pointed out why he thought it was poor. I'm sorry, I just really don't see what you are getting at here at all. | ||
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On February 22 2015 14:42 The Shining wrote: That's fair. I would like to know however, any ETA until the rest of the case? I'd like to know if I should try and stay up for it or if I should go to bed (and maybe wake up early to read it?).JJB. Really? Alright, I'm home. I won't be responding to JJB's defense or Trfel's analysis of the first part of my case until the rest of it is up. I purposely posted that first half to see what the reaction would be and it's exactly as I expected. Trfel is looking at it critically, and JJB...well, I'll add JJB's defense to the end of the case. | ||
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If you want my response immediately, that's no problem either. But I am going to want to go to sleep in two hours at the absolute latest, and I'd really prefer to go to sleep sooner (one hour would be nice, though I might be able to stretch it). And if I go to sleep before you post, it's a moot point. | ||
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The Shining, no guarantees, but I'll try to stay up. Day 3 song: + Show Spoiler + https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh3Kk5tZSmo Because town needs to be logical. | ||
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But seriously, thanks a bunch for being willing to go through all this filter diving and case making. | ||
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1. Jarjarbinks considering the possibility of being night killed due to a Star Wars hating mafia team is a joke, clearly. That said, mafia teams sometimes behave in extremely weird ways, so even a scumread player considering the possibility of being night killed isn't alignment indicative. 2. Bad reads doesn't mean always wrong. Otherwise, bad reads are just as good as good reads, because you make your reads and then do the opposite. Jarjarbinks is making reads and sharing thoughts, which is exactly what you criticized him for not doing in Part 1, saying he said that his reads were bad to compensate. 3. I agreed, for a jarjarbinks-Silverarte scumteam, there seems to be no possible kill but rsoultin. But if I were jarjarbinks, I would actually want to keep rsoultin around to defend me here. Especially after rsoultin townread jarjarbinks early. So I can't really implicate jarjarbinks through the night kill at all. 4. Again, it is completely possible for a player to say their reads are bad and still act strongly to push them (in this case, defending you). If you want an example, look at me. My reads are bad, but I'll still push them with force when I feel that it is called for. 5. Look at the context for jarjarbinks talking about combining lynch and night deaths. It seems that this is collected from other games, so it is not alignment indicative for this game. 6. Jarjarbinks posted scumreads on ElyAs and Tere. Apparently his read on Silverarte was provided at someone's request? Thus it is perfectly acceptable for it to be shorter. He seems to provide a general null, for which the length is appropriate (I'm the only player who goes in depth about null reads, and basically everyone hates it when I do). 7. Maybe that Silverarte post is a bit suspect for jarjarbinks, but posts like that are so easy for mafia. You show that you are reading and you help out without providing anything to put yourself at risk (I consider posts like that null). 8. The rest of the association case between Silverarte and jarjarbinks actually is rather interesting. That's the first part of your case so far that I really find myself agreeing with. Still, I can see a town jarjarbinks behaving in the same way, though it's a bit of a stretch. That's why I asked my earlier question to jarjarbinks, to see if he can shed any light on this. I'll take another look in the morning. For the record, I went through jarjarbinks's filter on my own, and while I (consciously) ignored the association case between jarjarbinks and Silverarte, the only thing I noticed is that he first called ElyAs's filter good and scumhunting and later called it boring (went along with thread sentiment). My final stance is that I still think that Tere/Palmar is a significantly better lynch. I'm not convinced by most of your case at this time, but you've made some interesting points. I'm not sure how much time I'll get to spend on it tomorrow, but if we don't win with the lynch, I will most definitely be revisiting this. | ||
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On February 23 2015 00:10 jarjarbinks wrote: I have a few minutes.Your defense to her posts didn't help too much, because in our last game where you were scum, you attempted to hardcore defend yourself after being copread by LS. Hence the initial vote. But what the heck is this? That defense was a complete and total joke. I was obviously mafia, I was obviously getting lynched, I was just trying to cause confusion. | ||
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"If Tere is playing for town and really believing her case, Trfel is a much bigger threat as scum to keep alive another day. Silverarte is just easy cleanup. In my experience, tunneling that hard on a player such as Trfel(almost universally townread, large filter, lots of content) is suicide for scum. It is much more likely that misguided town believes their case wholeheartedly and tunnels." I don't agree with this in this. In principle, it makes sense to lynch the more dangerous scum first. However, when that starts meeting opposition, there is no reason to do so. If a townie is interested in solving the game, they will be fine with letting a perceived dangerous scum stay alive for an extra day, because they have arguments and they know that their arguments are right. Bad arguments cannot normally stand up to good arguments. If there are two scum players to lynch, it isn't very important at all to lynch the more "dangerous" scum first. For a player as constantly scumread as jarjarbinks, it makes sense that he is thinking about how his posts will look to others and whether or not he will be scumread for it. I want to lynch Tere/Palmar. Side note, in the event that Tere/Palmar is not mafia, I still don't know that I would be convinced to vote for jarjarbinks. I don't think that The Shining going through all of this effort to make a case despite having a very good lynch option already confirms him to be town. A mafia!The Shining would actually have good reasons for doing this as well. I need to do more investigation to see what this case says about The Shining's alignment, but I have a bunch of good reasons to townread The Shining from earlier, so I don't think that he is scum. | ||
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I'll be out until (hopefully) 30 minutes before EOD. | ||
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It really is frustrating that zlefin never checked in since the case was posted. Even though I want to lynch Tere/Palmar, I wish he would have showed up and provided input. Palmar, the reason that Tere's push on me is bad isn't because she pushed for my lynch. The Shining scumread me, and I townread him for doing so. The reason that I scumread Tere for her push is because it was built on faulty reasoning and done in an extremely suspicious manner. | ||
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On February 23 2015 08:15 The Shining wrote: Oh, and this, I don't find it telling. Jarjarbinks is frustrated at being pushed in this manner, and so you can't expect him to defend himself optimally. See my defense on Day 2, it was a horrible defense because I couldn't bring myself to provide a proper defense.Ebwop: I really find it telling that Trfel can find better defenses for JJB than JJB can. Originally typed Trfel by mistake. | ||
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I do thank you for taking the time to go through making tonereads on people's behavior today as you did. If you are town, I will take a much closer look at your reads and why they are the way they are. | ||
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On February 23 2015 09:23 zlefin wrote: Look who showed up right after the deadline.Going to sleep soon, will look over the cases tomorrow. | ||
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But I'll admit that at the moment, I'm really not liking this situation at all. I want to blame the hosts for giving Palmar the wrong role PM. Ugh...... I'll be needing to filter dive everyone still alive (except myself, of course). And then I'll take a careful look at Tere/Palmar's filter, and then Silverarte's filter. Ugh. I don't want to lose at LYLO. | ||
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And night kills are WIFOM, it will be hard to make any conclusion at all based on it. | ||
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I am town. I am very confident that The Shining is town, and I think that assuming I die tonight, I will need to be willing to accept losing to mafia!The Shining (The Shining, if you are mafia, your play has been truly inspired). If I don't die tonight, maybe I can find some time to reread him, but I will play assuming that I die tonight. Fortunately, we will have at least one very likely town alive for LYLO, so our chances of RNG lynching scum are about 50%. I think that jarjarbinks is town and that zlefin is scum. The Shining thinks that zlefin is town and jarjarbinks is scum. This is the perfect opportunity for mafia night kill WIFOM, and therefore at least The Shining and I (Trfel) need to take into full consideration the reads of the dead player. And to be honest, if we can set this lynch before the end of the night, I don't think that's bad. I don't think we will be able to, as we don't have enough time, but that would be ideal to me. I'm going to go reread the entire thread. I don't know if I am going to case zlefin. While it would be good to case both zlefin and jarjarbinks and see what is stronger, I don't think I have the luxury of that. I would prefer to figure out conclusively which of them is scum, and then they actually won't even need to be cased. The likely scenario is that one of me (Trfel) or The Shining dies. Zlefin and jarjarbinks will probably vote for each other, leaving whichever of me and The Shining is alive to choose the lynch, so really a case isn't entirely necessary. | ||
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On February 23 2015 08:58 Palmar wrote: I'm quoting this for safe keeping. Palmar is smart, listen to him.also reevaluate everything in lylo. Don't scumhunt in lylo using what is being posted in lylo, just use whatever was posted in the previous days and go off of that. | ||
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I am most likely to be town because I have been leading town for most of the game. I have provided many reads, made cases, and always been open with my thoughts. The Shining is next most likely to be town because he has been constantly scumhunting, making controversial reads, thinking critically, and continued to scumhunt even when the lynch seemed settled on Tere/Palmar. Jarjarbinks is next most likely to be town because his play has shown indications of scumhunting and critical thinking. I have liked the honesty he has used in his posts. Zlefin is most likely to be scum because while his play was good in the early part of the game, it seems to have dropped off as of late. His play over the last day was a bit less than remarkable, though I can't scumread him for that alone, of course. | ||
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And again, I make cases if I want to push something. If I don't see a need to push something, I won't make a case. | ||
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I'm assuming mafia is either jarjarbinks or zlefin. I actually think that jarjarbinks has generally seemed to be town this game (for his standards). I can see him thinking through things and analyzing, even if he rarely reaches the conclusion that I would. In addition, he has done some things that seem towny. Notably, he hammered Silverarte instead of voting for me. While it's possible that this could be a bus, I think it's more likely that jarjarbinks is town here. Meanwhile, zlefin's play has seemed unreliable. He was generally scumread early on, and then I made a post defending him. That post also told him what he could do to make it look like he was scumhunting. Guess what, he took my advice, and since then he has been mostly above suspicion. I feel like his play has died off since then, and my defense of him cleared him when it should not have. Now that I think about it, it's hard to think of reasons to townread him. I'm looking through zlefin's filter. It's hard to come up with things that are scummy in it. But it's also hard to come up with things that are towny. He seems really careful and cautious (note that this isn't necessarily a scum tell). In contrast, jarjarbinks's filter shows several scummy things, but also several towny things. In general, his reads and stances are much more memorable than those of zlefin. And that is why I want to lynch zlefin instead. As for jarjarbinks' decision to vote to lynch Silverarte instead of me, remember that missing that lynch would have put town at 5 player LYLO. In addition, my flip would make Tere look quite bad for pushing for my lynch. If jarjarbinks was indeed scum, one can assume that he saw the votes and voted to kill me instead of his partner Silverarte, and then went to the scum QT and was told to bus instead, so he switched. However, while this would provide strong connections between jarjarbinks and Silverarte, with town at LYLO that might never be an issue. There is definitely a real possibility of a jarjarbinks bus on Silverarte, but I still think that is less likely than a town jarjarbinks voting for scum instead of town. | ||
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On February 19 2015 05:06 zlefin wrote: This quote looks really weird with a flipped Silverarte.....I believe that's a good analysis, and would like to hear Silver's rebuttal. Also, if you think it's silver, any idea on who they're working with? I'm starting to try to think on pairwise analysis to see who looks too in sync. On February 20 2015 06:11 zlefin wrote: Look at these sentences (all from the same quote, stand alone, I just removed the stuff in between. If Silverarte flips, he is setting himself up for pushing Trfel, taking credit for voting scum. And if Trfel flips town, he's setting himself up to push Tere in response.Like I say, I could see a Trfel/Silver team as a possibility, as I looked over how things were done. I maintain silver is a great target right now. I'm suspicious of Tere as well, more suspicious than I am of trfel. This post looks bad Just a few random thoughts from zlefin's filter. I really think that the scum is zlefin, not jarjarbinks. Jarjarbinks has seemed more like town. There is a fair associative case between zlefin and Silverarte as well (notably how hard zlefin tried to avoid having Silverarte drag him down). Look at how zlefin's read on Silverarte changed. First he was suspicious of her for being inactive, then he gave her a cautious town read (which I feel is unwarranted), and then when suspicion picked up on Silverarte, he switched back to scum reading her. | ||
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He's being extremely cautious. His posts seem to be putting in effort to look towny. He is really cautious with his stance on Silverarte. He's always staying under the radar, seeming to scumhunt but never really memorable. One of those alone is not incriminating, but combined? I think he is scum trying to avoid being lynched at all costs. I'm going to sleep now. Very interested to hear thoughts. | ||
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On February 23 2015 20:21 zlefin wrote: when did I give silver a cautious town read? I'm asking because I don't remember doing that; and my point system shows no town points for silver. On February 18 2015 05:02 zlefin wrote: Here you go.Looking through SilverArte's filter, I have a better feel about it; it feels good, but I'm not sure if that's a town sense I'm getting, or just general friendliness, I think it might just be the friendliness, because when I think of specific issues of concern I had with elyas (low overall quantity, lack of originality) it looks like those are still present, though definitely not to the same problematic degree as Elyas's filter. Silver's definitely feel more helpful, and somewhat contentful. I'd also like to hear other's reactions to this assessment. | ||
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On February 24 2015 02:02 zlefin wrote: I don't like how you are trying to justify previous actions by saying why they don't look scummy instead of why they aren't scummy. It's a minor wording thing, but you seem to be defending myself by "look, I didn't mess up" instead of "no, I'm town".I'm not sure I call this a townread; it's a town-favorable impression, which was reducing the prior scum-impression. It depends whether by townread you mean thinking someone is town, or thinking something pushes someone closer to being town. If the latter, yes; if the former, not really, it looks too neutral for that. | ||
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The Shining, extremely well played. Remember earlier, when I said night kills are WIFOM? I kind of lied. My goal was to make mafia think that I would place the night kill completely on WIFOM, but if there was ever a time where night kill analysis would be useful, it would be right now. | ||
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On February 24 2015 10:14 zlefin wrote: Is that really what it is? I thought that the rule in question only applied if it was clear that it would be that way before the day began. Therefore, I think if we have a 1-1-1 split, whoever gets voted for first is the one who is lynched.Hmmm, so two of us have to agree on which other one to lynch, as per the rules on end-game votes. That said, we had better have two people on the same target. | ||
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That said, if anyone has any questions for me whatsoever, I will do my best to answer. You two should be interested in determining my alignment, and if there is anything I can do to help you with that, please let me know. I'm going to start by rereading the game and taking note of everything that you two did. | ||
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On February 24 2015 10:29 zlefin wrote: I believe mafia wins as soon as they have equal numbers as town, so that would be a mafia victory.well, that's not how I read it, but you can ask those in charge. The logic for it would fully apply to a 1-1-1 split, making sure it's not a vote race, because vote races are bad for deciding the game. It just occurs to me, it must be logically possible for a mafia game to tie, if there's a lylo mislynch, but the remaining two people are the scum and a vigilante with a bullet left, and they kill each other at night. But it would be nice to have clarification as to what happens if the voting ends with one vote on each player if possible? | ||
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On February 23 2015 08:58 Palmar wrote: I'm going to quote this again.also reevaluate everything in lylo. Don't scumhunt in lylo using what is being posted in lylo, just use whatever was posted in the previous days and go off of that. Note that by no means do I intend to stop scumhunting at LYLO, I will do my very best. But it is easy for people's behaviors to change at LYLO, and for scum to step up their game significantly. Thefefore, I trust Palmar in saying that it is more important to look at what happened before LYLO than to look at LYLO itself. | ||
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Trfel was townreading The Shining, and The Shining was townreading Trfel. The Shining was scumreading jarjarbinks, and Trfel was scumreading zlefin. Zlefin was also scumreading Trfel. If we are dealing with mafia!jarjarbinks, killing The Shining makes sense to leave two confused townies scumreading each other. If we are dealing with mafia!zlefin, killing The Shining doesn't make much sense except for hoping for WIFOM, which is a bit silly. Maybe The Shining was killed because The Shining was his townread, and therefore he could not justify voting him. This is a possibility for mafia!zlefin to kill The Shining to keep his vote options open, but that seems like a generally poor choice compared to leaving The Shining who is scumreading jarjarbinks behind. Therefore, it seems to me that the night kill seems to suggest that jarjarbinks is scum. Still, I have a lot of trouble with night kill analysis. Jarjarbinks, can you please shed some light on this for me? | ||
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But in the end, I can't see myself lynching jarjarbinks just because of the night kill. It's something to keep in mind, but I don't know how much weight it deserves. | ||
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You stated your method, you stated potential flaws, you stated your conclusion. I am wondering how the results of your method led you to your conclusion? | ||
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I'm interested to see what you come up with, but my hypothesis is that it is too prone to errors. | ||
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The rest of it, I'm not sure how useful it is, and I'm not entirely sure of everything you are trying to say with point 3, but point 4 is very obvious and clear.* I'm not going to explain what the * means at this time, so don't ask. | ||
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We start knowing that zlefin's play is extremely cautious. I feel that his play generally fits what would be expected from an extremely cautious scum. When I read this post at this time, it almost makes me wonder if he is being too suspicious to be town. I'm not sure that a town player in his first game would even consider the possibility of two mafia working together to be town read this early in the game. Any thoughts on this? This post seems to be showing some suspicion to inactivity, which coincidentally includes mafia Silverarte. Note that he says that inactivity seems weird, but is probably not a sign of being scum. This could be a mafia being sure to show some suspicion of a scum buddy, but also being sure not to go too far with it. This post is more of what I referenced in the first post I linked. I don't think it means anything, but I'm still interested in thoughts. I don't know what to make of zlefin's original idea to lynch me for information. It's certainly unique, and I am not sure that scum would naturally think of doing this. That said, it has a good mafia motivation of doing something unique and it can potentially be used as a small excuse to not have better reads. It still seems strange that zlefin asks people what he should do. It feels as if he is trying to make sure that his actions are considered correct by everyone else. If zlefin agreed with my reasons that Hier could be town, why is he not considering finding a scum lynch instead? This seems strange. Zlefin gave Silverarte -1 in his table. This seems a bit suspicious, like he is making sure not to give too much town credit to his scum buddy. It's perfectly fine to leave inactives at null. I don't know what to think about posts like this. Thoughts? (the last one on the page) This feels a bit too self-conscious. I still think that this read on Silverarte is strange, and he seems to provide an incorrect judgement of Silverarte's filter while still leaving a lot of room for interpretation. He leaves a probe for other people's thoughts here, as if he wants to see if he is right. He did not do so for the above post linked about ElyAs. By the time that zlefin made this post, The Shining's filter didn't feel that great. The Shining didn't provide many original reads in this time frame. Zlefin also seems committed to making a read on everyone, which seems odd. This looks like zlefin trying to see if he is too easily connected with Silverarte. And the last sentence doesn't need to be added by a town!zlefin here. Zlefin moved Silverarte from weak town to scum here. Then zlefin probed everyone for scumreads, and as a result, decided to vote for Silverarte. At this point, most everyone was scumreading Silverarte, so for a cautious zlefin, going for the bus here is the safe play and it is justified. Right before this, he probed the entire thread for reads, and he didn't seem to use those reads for anything other than this vote. Zlefin didn't seem to think that I was actually in danger of being lynched, and that is why he stuck to the bus. Zlefin "has to recommend" voting for Silverarte over me. Has to? Bad wording for town!zlefin. This post shows just far zlefin's stance on Silverarte is falling. When he gave her a favorable read earlier. This post suggests that zlefin hasn't been paying attention to flips before this one, didn't realize that vanilla townie was a role, or both. Had zlefin received a vanilla townie role PM, that might have made him more likely to realize that vanilla townie is in fact a role. This wording makes it seem that not only is zlefin going ahead with a pre-day lynch, he is refusing to consider alternatives and is removing himself from blame should it go wrong. | ||
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I'm intentionally leaving my conclusion separate from the analysis itself. Zlefin has been playing extremely cautiously, generally keeping with town sentiment and trying to stay in public favor. That said, his play still has several things that could be seen as suspicious (widely varying in strength, haha). Many of the points I mentioned above are not very strong. But zlefin doesn't seem to be a bad lynch for the strong points, what jarjarbinks brought up, and the extreme caution his filter showed. I'm going to filter dive jarjarbinks now, and then read The Shining's case on him. | ||
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On February 24 2015 13:52 jarjarbinks wrote: Very well, good night. You don't need to go point by point, just general comments or important comments are fine. I'm mostly interested in overall conclusion.I tried to read through this, but I'm going to have to come back tomorrow for a reread. There's so many quotes lol I'll try to comment on this in the morning if I have time and if not in the afternoon. #3 was my favorite point on my case lol If I have time after my case on you I will try to help you understand what I'm saying I probably wasn't clear enough in my analysis. | ||
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This post seems a bit off. "Let me go reread and see if I can pick up on something". Hm. Then there's jarjarbinks deciding to go his own way with the Day 1 vote. I really don't know what to make of this. At first it seems towny, but it could also be trying to rid himself of the Hier mislynch. Jarjarbinks accusing zlefin here seems a bit weak. I demonstrated that it is possible to link zlefin's points to his reads. He townread ElyAs earlier, the opinion change seems suspect here. But this is a plausible explanation for someone who focuses heavily on vote counts. This read feels poor to me for reasons I've already explained. Here, jarjarbinks states that Silverarte is most lynchable. This seems to take some of the force out of the jarjarbinks bus theory. Then of course, his vote switch to Silverarte. I still think that this is a townie thing to do, even with the break. He already voted for me after scumreading Silverarte, at that point it makes no sense to switch back and bus. This post seems a bit off. Why would he be posting his 2nd game now if we were wondering why he only grabbed his first? Seems self conscious. That's what I got. I need to look through The Shining's case still, but I will put that off to tomorrow. On a side note, I am getting sleepy so I didn't mention minor points in this analysis, while I included a bunch of minor/null points in my analysis of zlefin's play (looking for feedback). Don't be deceived by the case size. I am still leaning towards zlefin being mafia. | ||
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On February 24 2015 22:46 zlefin wrote: I thought I was a well played town...........I've said before Trfel is either town, or a well-played scum, others (IIRC tere at least, probably more people) have remarked on this as well. I'll reread everything you said in a bit. I can respond if you would like, but otherwise I wasn't planning to. | ||
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On February 24 2015 10:07 zlefin wrote: I'm just going to repost this here. This seems to take a lot of the force out of the night kill analysis theory.I was considering that you and shining might have (by thinking the same idea) each placed a different person as the likely lynch, and use the night kill to see which one of you was killed. I didn't mention it as it would have messed up such a plan. NK analysis is still wifom, but we can try to make something out of it, though the simplest explanation still looks to be best here. Zlefin, if you were scum, you probably shouldn't have said this. | ||
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jarjarbinks (from The Shining's case) Jarjarbinks town reading The Shining so emphatically does seem a bit suspicious. But it's not as bad as The Shining makes it out to be. Jarjarbinks did show a changing stance on Silverarte that I find suspicious. I still think that jarjarbinks' vote switch to save me looked towny, but I suppose it could also be a scum deciding to do a sub-optimal play. This is consistent with The Shining saying that jarjarbinks was a scum scrambling as one of his partners was being voted. The timing of this vote switch, right after Tere and I produced cases on Silverarte, does seem suspicious. I feel that these three points are potentially the strongest points against jarjarbinks. Most of everything else seems minor, or easily explainable, or I can't understand exactly what The Shining is getting at (this happens sometimes.... sorry The Shining, I tried, really). zlefin I still don't like his changing stance on Silverarte, either. He says that he didn't town read Silverarte, but this seems to say otherwise. This read is null at lowest, and the words he says seem to imply that the read should be higher. The early suspicion of inactives including Silverarte seems strange. He didn't think that I was ever in danger of being lynched, explaining why he continued to vote Silverarate. And he voted for Silverarte after seeing that everyone was scumreading her. Zlefin was one of the group (that included me) who voted Hier but said they weren't that happy with the lynch. But zlefin didn't seem at all concerned about finding counterwagons. He said that Hier was better than an RNG lynch and that seemed to be good enough for him. Zlefin asked people what he should do. I really don't see why a townie would do this here. There are better resources to use than asking people in the thread, and zlefin already said that he read mafia guides. It seems that he is trying to respond to suspicion without actually responding to it. Then of course, is zlefin's apparent desire to make himself look good. This happens throughout his filter. Asking if he should scumread The Shining is one example of this. Zlefin said that he often read through filters and didn't have any thoughts, but he also kept rereading people until he had a stance on everyone. It looks bad to not have a stance on someone, and zlefin seems to be trying to avoid that, despite apparently having trouble reading some people earlier in the game. His decision to vote for Silverarte is largely based on the fact that Silverarte was commonly scumread, so he is still trying to vote where everyone else does to make himself look good. And of course, here he confidently chooses his lynch target while also spreading the blame to everyone if the lynch goes wrong. | ||
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On February 18 2015 05:02 zlefin wrote: That looks like a favorable read to me.Looking through SilverArte's filter, I have a better feel about it; it feels good, but I'm not sure if that's a town sense I'm getting, or just general friendliness, I think it might just be the friendliness, because when I think of specific issues of concern I had with elyas (low overall quantity, lack of originality) it looks like those are still present, though definitely not to the same problematic degree as Elyas's filter. Silver's definitely feel more helpful, and somewhat contentful. I'd also like to hear other's reactions to this assessment. | ||
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On February 25 2015 03:52 zlefin wrote: It feels like a terrible mixed read. Really noncommittal, you could use it to later go either way on Silverarte.More favorable than before, yes; but note "but I'm not sure if that's a town sense I'm getting, or just general friendliness, I think it might just be the friendliness, because when I think of specific issues of concern I had with elyas (low overall quantity, lack of originality) it looks like those are still present, though definitely not to the same problematic degree as Elyas's filter." which is a pretty clear note that it has similar issues that elyas's had; and asks whether the town impression is a result of actual towniness, or is a misread, since the objective characteristics do not support the town part. | ||
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I hope I'm right. | ||
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Thanks! | ||
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I had Tere at a mild scumread for some time, and then I changed it to a mild townread when I found her behavior to be consistent and had town explanations for it. Then after Silverarte flipped, I changed my stance on Tere to a strong scumread. I guess you would have been at null or slight town for most of the game. Zlefin has generally stayed around null or slight town as well. Hier was null to slight scum. Elyas was slight town until his claim, when I would call him strong town (if he didn't die that would go down later, haha). Anything else? | ||
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I'm going to head out for a while, so hopefully that's enough for your analysis. I'll check back as soon as I can. | ||
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On February 25 2015 12:59 jarjarbinks wrote: Yes to both.Did you have Shining/Tere as a higher Townread in D2 around the time Tere made her case on you? I need to go to sleep, sorry. I'll take another look at what you come up with tomorrow. | ||
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Why is the case that I bused Silverarte weak? Why does my read analysis look good? Just because of the large number of reads? My usage of my vote is poor. I haven't been very good at using my vote to pressure, so I mostly just wait until I'm sure who I want to lynch and vote for them then. Zlefin, in Night 3 you listed the percentages for each player being scum. With Palmar dead, I have the highest remaining percentage. Why did you not vote for me? | ||
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I'll try to get back close to EOD, because otherwise I don't think I will be able to see jarjarbinks' answer. But if I don't make it back in time, I'm sorry. | ||
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1. The Shining says that we should be suspicious of jarjarbinks 2. Jarjarbinks says that he is initially suspicious of The Shining 3. Jarjarbinks goes back through The Shining's filter, and then moves The Shining to a townread With a reasonable amount of time between these posts, I see nothing wrong with this progression or a slight townread on The Shining at this time. | ||
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On February 16 2015 13:43 Silverarte wrote: Hrm.Oh, side note. Shining: I'm really reading null where Zlefin is at this moment. For a D1 lynch, I'm hesitant. | ||
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Please explain? | ||
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This is rather frustrating. I'm on page 41 of my read through, and I'm still leaning a bit towards zlefin. Zlefin, what are your thoughts on Jarjarbinks' vote switch at the end of Day 2? | ||
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On February 25 2015 13:35 jarjarbinks wrote: Where you at?I'm off to bed. I will be back about 1-2 hours before EOD. Sorry if this puts things in a bad position, but after work I will come straight home to help answer questions and put general thoughts on Trf's cases. I can't say much to Zlef's to defend myself, so I won't unless he posts another case on me. | ||
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On February 26 2015 07:46 jarjarbinks wrote: Yeah,I'm mostly just looking for answers to the questions I asked.just got here and read up lol I'm assuming I should answer your questions over comment on your case first? | ||
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On February 25 2015 12:22 jarjarbinks wrote: This is what I refer to when I ask why the case on me busing Silverarte is weak.Notes on Trfel: (...) Things that Bother Me (I admit this is weak, I’m struggling here): (...) 3. You could make a case about him hammering Silver. It’s beyond weak but it’s still a case you could make for bussing. | ||
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Can you convince me that you are scum? | ||
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Yes, I'm very cruel like that. | ||
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On February 26 2015 08:33 jarjarbinks wrote: Oh hush XDlol and HTS is a girl you just don't stop lol I don't even know what to say any more, haha..... I was nice to rsoultin, wasn't I? | ||
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More music just because I can. | ||
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On February 26 2015 08:35 jarjarbinks wrote: Well, since it's making me seriously consider lynching you, I think you can decide.Lol i'm not sure if that's a complement or not lol | ||
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On February 26 2015 08:38 jarjarbinks wrote: Parts of this game have been great (Day 1), parts of this game have been torture (second half of Day 2), it's really been a spectrum. Definitely a learning experience.If town wins or loses, this game has been my favorite of the three. I hope you had some fun, even if this part sucks. And seriously, whichever of you is mafia, you played really well. To be honest, I wouldn't be that inclined to lynch either of you if there were more options left (but I am terrible at making reads, so that probably wouldn't be true for better players, haha). Pretty sure that 20 minutes from now the entire obs chat is going to storm in here and tear me to shreds, but I tried, really..... | ||
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On February 26 2015 08:40 Trfel wrote: Oh and to add, whichever of you is town, you suck for not making this so obvious that even I could see it easily XDParts of this game have been great (Day 1), parts of this game have been torture (second half of Day 2), it's really been a spectrum. Definitely a learning experience. And seriously, whichever of you is mafia, you played really well. To be honest, I wouldn't be that inclined to lynch either of you if there were more options left (but I am terrible at making reads, so that probably wouldn't be true for better players, haha). Pretty sure that 20 minutes from now the entire obs chat is going to storm in here and tear me to shreds, but I tried, really..... | ||
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Now I almost want to lynch you for not being interested in the flip........ | ||
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On February 26 2015 08:55 jarjarbinks wrote: First of all, your analysis is extremely detailed. The problem is that most of the details vary by player and by game (not necessarily even by alignment), so it doesn't really help to keep track of them.lol how so? What you want to look at is what people are actually doing, and why they say they are doing that. See if their words are consistent with their actions. You can accomplish this by recording everything, or you can just take notes of their main reads and pushes in an Excel spreadsheet. It's generally not something that you need to have the numbers in front of you to see. Honestly, reading and rereading a ton is so important in this game. I've found my note-taking to be poor, so I prefer to read and reread until I have all of the facts that I'm dealing with committed to memory. For example, during the later stages of my push on Tere, I probably could have recited all of the major things she had done and the reasons for them from memory. Of course, I can only have that kind of awareness for one or two people at a time XD Definitely one of my weaknesses at mafia, I'm so forgetful. | ||
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On February 26 2015 08:56 zlefin wrote: HAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHHAHHHAHAHA XDalmost forgot about end of game, ok, lemme go look up that question 3 Here's hoping that's a sign of a mafia who knows he is getting lynched? | ||
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Well played, jarjarbinks. Maybe someday I will learn how to play this game XD | ||
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On February 26 2015 09:03 marvellosity wrote: Ever since my first game, I've barely ever used meta.... Surely there was another tell.one thing: jarjar was a lot less "crazy" this game than his towngames. wp jarjar. Can someone explain to me why the Day 2 votes clearly showed why he was busing? I felt that if he was actually scum, he should have just forced the mislynch through and put town at LYLO with Tere heavily suspected. | ||
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On February 26 2015 09:07 jarjarbinks wrote: I was sure that if you were scum, that was exactly what happened. It's so obvious. Come in, see close lynch, throw down vote, go to scum QT, get told to bus. But if you wanted to bus you should have just done it the first time, I didn't think you would actually try to get the mislynch and then back off......I talked to silver about it in the QT if you don't believe me. I honestly felt so bad at the thought of lynching you xD I know it's a terrible excuse, but I really think my lack of experience destroyed me in this one. I've never played more than one day of a mafia game before (I was killed N2 in Carol, but I afk'd day 1). So I really don't know about night kill analysis, voting analysis, things like that. Ways to get ACTUAL reads other than silly weak Day 1 things. I thought that the rsoultin night kill was explained enough with the Silverarte flip, and as being the main cause of discussion. | ||
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On February 26 2015 09:18 jarjarbinks wrote: Wow, I hate you. I assumed that you would be using your brain when you played, and not making suboptimal plays......They were actually against the bus xD Silver, sorry again I screwed you. Still feel like poop. | ||
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On February 26 2015 09:21 rsoultin wrote: Did you ever play Starcraft 2?>> he won didn't he? >> "He won because he was bad, and he did a strategy that only worked if I didn't know that he was bad" -IdrA Basically that. And as to your comment about jarjarbinks' "sorry to see you go sis" quote, yes I really did notice it and it did seem off. But my tonereads are ridiculously horrid. | ||
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On February 26 2015 09:23 marvellosity wrote: That's kind of the point XDgiven Idra is a douche and his word is worth as much as my poop, probably not the best authority to appeal to | ||
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I don't really know how to do either. And I don't really know where to go to learn. | ||
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