EPTNot impossible, but really tricky and risky.
Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 58
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
Not impossible, but really tricky and risky. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 20 2015 05:16 zlefin wrote: I ran across it by accident. You asked me early in day 2, I believe, and I stated this then. That was the same post where I said that I hate association analysis.I have been considering what a silverarte/tere team would do. I thought you didn't like association analysis? Why you up to association analysis now? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I wish I could be right. If I was right and I knew it, then I wouldn't get lynched right here. My last five mafia games have taught me a lot of things, but how to be right is not one of them. The 25% I posted in my first post? That is actually the number. Incorrect case on batsnacks Incorrect case on Damdred Correct case on KelsierSC Incorrect case on IAmRobik I'm sorry I can't always be right. I don't always have the answers. That doesn't mean I am mafia, that doesn't mean I haven't been trying my very best. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
Why would you feel betrayed by town when there's only 2 people voting on you right now? There's more votes on other people than on you; and the remaining 2 people aren't too likely to vote against you either Trfel, certainly shining has you as the towniest person on his list, and I have no list from Jarjar, but I don't think he's likely to pile on you. It feels like now, and a little while ago, trfel was pushing too strong defensively when not that many people were actually against him. You normally only see that kind of reaction when it's near or past half the town voting that way, not just 2 people, who could be the scum themselves. That said, I still think Silver is by far the safest lynch choice for today, as this is only an oddity, but could just be people being/feeling weird, or miscounting how many people are on which wagon. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
I just noticed, I misread who had and hadn't voted yet. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
Huh, seeing as Silver has you as his towniest listed choice, and tere as his scummiest, I'm not sure my miscount actually changes much about the actual threat you're in Trfel. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 20 2015 05:23 zlefin wrote: I am resigned. It's over, I'm getting lynched. There are seven people alive, you need four people to guarantee a lynch, so two is in fact halfway there.I find your response strange and suspicious Trfel, it's awfully defensive and worried, and sounds strangely resigned. Why would you feel betrayed by town when there's only 2 people voting on you right now? There's more votes on other people than on you; and the remaining 2 people aren't too likely to vote against you either Trfel, certainly shining has you as the towniest person on his list, and I have no list from Jarjar, but I don't think he's likely to pile on you. It feels like now, and a little while ago, trfel was pushing too strong defensively when not that many people were actually against him. You normally only see that kind of reaction when it's near or past half the town voting that way, not just 2 people, who could be the scum themselves. That said, I still think Silver is by far the safest lynch choice for today, as this is only an oddity, but could just be people being/feeling weird, or miscounting how many people are on which wagon. Nothing is overly defensive when a player as clearly skilled as Tere says that she is scumreading you with 95% confidence and a case is coming. That clearly indicates a hard push, which Tere later confirmed is coming. If I am getting hard pushed, you bet I'm going to defend myself with everything I have, even if it doesn't have popular support yet. I've been pouring my life into this game. There's nothing else I can give. ElyAs is probably town. So if both scum vote for me, that means every single other townie has to be here and vote for the same target. If town doesn't see why I am town, the game is hopeless even if I somehow manage to avoid being lynched today. Maybe I could keep arguing and save myself. But I'm not even sure if I care to, if this is how town will treat me. Zlefin, if you are willing to listen and make your own decisions, I'm more than willing to talk to you about this. I did not receive that indication from ElyAs. Tere, you didn't even need to make a case. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
You need to look at her case. After I flip, you can get rid of these stupid notions of unflipped associative reads and that my play obviously reveals that I am the godfather. Look at the content of her case, ignore the amount, look and see if she is thinking critically. I'm guessing you won't find it. Don't let her get away with lynching me and not even making a case, not even putting herself on the line for it. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
If any townie is willing to talk to me, and listen to me, and reason with me, and keep an open mind, I am willing to do this as well. But you're going to need to say this. I'm not going to defend myself if no one is willing to listen. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 20 2015 05:32 Trfel wrote: See, this is why I am not defending myself. No one cares to listen. No one cares to say why I am being scumread.Again, in case it was missed in all that. If any townie is willing to talk to me, and listen to me, and reason with me, and keep an open mind, I am willing to do this as well. But you're going to need to say this. I'm not going to defend myself if no one is willing to listen. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
What's more, she already scumread me. With 95% or higher confidence. This indicates that she has taken the time to do a full and careful analysis already, so she knows what she is looking for. That should make actually typing up the case much quicker. I almost think that her delay is just to watch me die as I don't even have a case to defend myself against. I can defend myself against arguments. I can't defend myself when I am being lynched with no arguments. She could just be delaying because she knows it's better if I don't get time to pick her arguments apart. Her case had BETTER be up to standards. Take a look at it after I flip. Look back at my initial case on Tere, it still holds true. Look at my posting for the past few hours, while most of it is ranting, I have pointed out a ton of reasons why Tere's play is extremely suspicious as of late. I need to head out for a bit, I'll be back soon. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
I need to get on my tablet, on phone right now. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
With a player with a filter this big, with valid scumhunting, are you still null on him? If so, how? If not, where are you leaning on him? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
And after I get lynched, I will make my non game-changing goodbye post. You bet it will be harsh. Those of you who are town and lynch me deserve it. The Shining, thanks for being willing to think openly. If there is anything whatsoever that I can do for you, any question you want answered, any case you want me to build (except Tere, since I can't do that until she posts), I can do that. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Trfel (2): Tere, ElyAs Silverarte (2): Trfel, zlefin Tere (1): ElyAs (0): Not Voting (3): Silverarte, jarjarbinks Currently, Trfel is set to be expelled from South Park Elementary. Day 2 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone. Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. | ||
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