|
On February 20 2015 04:03 ElyAs wrote:
I saved Trfel N1 because he was my top townread at the time. Thank you.
If you are in fact town (I am not going to lynch you, so I don't care to check the validity of your claims at the moment, I have a more pressing issue at hand), please stay sensible. I will explain myself clearly, and I know that my arguments are superior.
That said, I have never had to seriously defend myself before. I have no experience with it at all. Tere is rather experienced at both town and scum play, I'm sure she has aggressively pushed town players who had strong thread presences when she is scum. Her tone will sound better than mine, her persuasiveness will be more than mine. Just please, don't sheep her. Don't sheep me. Look at our arguments and decide for yourself who is correct.
Next, I will demonstrate why Tere is not the vigilante.
|
Imagine we have a vigilante in this game. The first question is, did they shoot on Night 1?
The answer is no. If they did shoot on Night 1, then it would have had to be at rsoultin (the night kill) or me (the doctor save). Since we were both basically unanimously townread, both of these shots would have been terrible. We can safely assume that the vigilante did not do this.
Imagine the scenario in which we mislynch today. That leaves us with 4 town and 2 mafia. Mafia will kill a town, at night, so 3 town and 2 mafia, LYLO. If the vigilante shoots tonight (Night 2), and hits town, we lose. If the vigilante is that confident in the shot, they should just do it during the day phase like a normal lynch, or get town consensus at night. A decision like that is extremely important to the result of the game, for obvious reasons, the vigilante wouldn't make it alone. If we have a vigilante, their role has very little use for the rest of the game.
Therefore, if we did have a vigilante, they would have shot on Night 1. A miss on night 1 would put town at MYLO, which is far superior to LYLO. In addition, town would get rid of one of the scummiest targets. Vigilantes are NOT meant to be used to get rid of mafia, necessarily. That is what the lynch is for. Vigilantes are BEST used to get rid of question marks like lurkers. That is the true power of the vigilante. Imagine if all of the players at Day 1 were in the night phase. The vigilante would shoot Hier, a question mark. Hier would flip town, but that saves town a mislynch, and town no longer would spend energy and time discussing him. An ideal Night 1 vigilante shot would probably have been Silverarte, the lurker.
Is it okay if we had a vigilante and they didn't know this? Yes, it's okay. HOWEVER, remember that Tere is rather experienced at the game, and I am positive that she knows all of the above. And if vigilante really is her favorite role, I would hope that she knows how it works, and the best way to use it. Therefore, Tere is not the vigilante.
|
You would claim Doc as I'm leaving for work. FFS. I'll be back when I get to work...45 mins to an hour.
|
Your point on the day shot is moot, the role is a night vigi as per the OP.
|
ElyAs, do you understand what I am saying about godfather behavior? A godfather can affect the way the scumteam plays as a whole (keep the godfather from being lynched), but going out of the way to try and get cop checked is terrible.
And do you understand what I'm saying about why Tere isn't the vigilante?
|
On February 20 2015 04:24 ElyAs wrote:
Your point on the day shot is moot, the role is a night vigi as per the OP. It's a completely hypothetical scenario. I'm well aware that the vigilante is a standard night shot vigilante. Just imagine that the town was the nine of us at night, and you can see why the vigilante would help.
|
Actually.... last Newbie Mafia game I played, town was not allowed to no lynch.
Still, it's generally best for the vigilante to shoot on Night 1. In normal games, that is considered standard play. Maybe in such a small game (9 players) it is different, but I doubt that.
|
On February 20 2015 04:28 Trfel wrote:
Actually.... last Newbie Mafia game I played, town was not allowed to no lynch.
Still, it's generally best for the vigilante to shoot on Night 1. In normal games, that is considered standard play. Maybe in such a small game (9 players) it is different, but I doubt that. Yeah, never mind about my reasoning then. It's flawed.
I still maintain that my behavior towards Tere is completely unaffected based on how she is "breadcrumbing" or not breadcrumbing her role, whatever that may be. If she isn't going to claim, I don't care if she's breadcrumbing. I'll push who I think is scummy, I'll lynch who I think is scummy. It makes no sense to avoid lynching someone for breadcrumbing only.
Note that Tere also said she wouldn't claim to avoid being lynched.
|
On February 20 2015 01:39 ElyAs wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2015 17:05 Tere wrote:
Morning.
I drank too much last night, have an unhappy stomach and am fuzzy headed, but right now I kinda think I wanna do something which will probably bug the crap out of everybody.
I kinda think I wanna ##vote Trfel.
It's like this. There's a post in my filter where I respond to him and say he's like this weirdly negging boyfriend that's not giving me a lady boner. I just can't shake it, I really can't. It's really bothering me.
I need everyone else to go look at Trfel's filter and see what they think. I might just be falling down the rabbit hole, but if so
I need to step away from the edge.
I need to take the car in for servicing and will be at least 8 or 9 hours. I won't be able to post but I will try and grab a coffee and do a full read and reset. Wow, that's what I call a scud. I think something's starting to make sense. I'm changing my way of reading this game. Something felt off but I can narrow it down to 3 people as possible lynch for tonight imo.
Making some notes as I filter-dive looking to reassess things.
This is the post where Elyas changes (or starts to change) her view of trfel from a bit of a townread to scum.
|
On February 20 2015 04:01 ElyAs wrote:Ok I'm gonna commit, I volontarily omitted the punchline to my scenarii post. I'm Wendy Testaburger, town Doctor ! Which is why I can say with such confidence that the role distribution is either : 1 Godfather, 1 Goon, 1 Doc, 1 Vigilante, 5 Vanilla Town or 1 Roleblocker, 1 Goon, 1 Doc, 6 Vanilla Town My point is, Tere has been breadcrumbing blue, but most importantly, she has been breadcrumbing Vigi adding to my strong townread. Proof : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=44#874" The two people I would shoot right now are The Shining and Silverarte." Why is she saying this while nobody has asked her who'd she shoot ? If this is true and Tere is Vigi, then we have a godfather that played like there could be cops around, while there are none. If this is false... GG Tere, I got fooled and luck was on your side.
She said it because throughout the night she had been asking people who they'd shoot if they had 2 bullets, and there was some discussion back and forth between people about her asking the question without having provided answers at that time.
So the 2 bullet thing would have been on her mind even if she hadn't been explicitly asked, due to considerable prior discussion on a who to shoot with 2 bullets issue.
|
You can see why Tere's extremely slight breadcrumbing of vigilante has no significance, right?
For one, it's a terrible idea to counterclaim to something that slight. Tere could easily take it all back as a misinterpretation, especially when she posted in bold and all caps telling people not to claim as a result of what she was doing. So claiming would serve zero purpose.
Second, scum doesn't have that much more incentive to shoot someone who is breadcrumbing that slightly. Normal roleclaims have some of their power because if they are town, they are a high risk to get shot by the mafia. A slight breadcrumb like this avoids much of this risk, therefore it deserves a lot less importance on it.
|
Haha, well played ElyAs. I did wonder. Nobody lynch ElyAs, ever, K thanks. Please protect anyone apart from Trfel or Silverarte tonight 
I'll out if the consensus from my townreads is that you want me to
back to work
|
I'm still waiting to see Tere's case. I want to know if it is at all possible that a town Tere could arrive at this conclusion.
|
Placing my vote now because I can't stay in front of my computer. I'll read the thread and I'll be back at least one hour before EoD. My decision is not final, but It's consistent with my train of thought.
|
On February 20 2015 04:45 ElyAs wrote:
Placing my vote now because I can't stay in front of my computer. I'll read the thread and I'll be back at least one hour before EoD. My decision is not final, but It's consistent with my train of thought. I don't get it.
You are scumreading me for the sole reason that you think I am the godfather. And you didn't respond to why that is nonsensical.
Maybe there are some parts in my play that look scummy because I AM NOT PERFECT? There are parts in EVERYONE'S play that look scummy. Are they all godfathers?
|
ElyAs voted for me. I still think he is probably town, even if terribly misguided and not making sense right now. I don't really see his claim as holding that much value since few people have been here to counterclaim.
Let's assume that both mafia vote for me as well. That means that all remaining town need to vote for the same target.
|
Ok, since Elyas has blueclaimed, I'm moving my vote off Elyas for now.
So I'm moving it onto Silver, who is my best other suspect.
I could see a Trfel/Silver team, and I could see an Elyas/Tere team, both possibilities look very plausible to me, based on how the recent interactions and votes have gone.
I prefer to target silver, as there are of course some other less likely possibilities for the scum team, and silver's play has still been too suspicious on the whole, whereas trfel has more townish aspects.
The info I requested from other people shows a strong trend toward Silver being seen as scum (1 person has him at neutral, 5 at various levels of scumminess, I still haven't gotten a list from jarjar), which makes me feel further that it's a good lynch choice.
I would like to hear more from jarjar, he's felt a bit absent for day 2, so being paranoid, I worry that on the off chance he's scum, he'd just be inactive because he's not needing to do anything. Also, I'd really like that list Jarjar, before the day is done if possible.
|
I could lynch Silverarte. That is a reasonable lynch for acceptable reasons.
How about a Silverarte/Tere scumteam? I happened upon the possibility by accident. Do you see how Tere townread Silverarte for tone, despite Silverarte having done nothing? And after I voiced my suspicions of Silverarte, Tere changed her read to a scumread when Silverarte suspiciously appeared in the thread right after.
Tere, you said you want to settle the lynch early. It's less than four hours for the deadline, and you still haven't started your push. Make your case now, so I can decide if you are scum and I have time to prepare a defense. You can't expect me to defend myself if you don't give me time to do so. To this point, I have addressed every accusation thrown at me and have come out with logically superior arguments.
|
What do you expect me to say? I've given literally everything I have to this game. I've tried as hard as I possibly can. I've been leading town the whole way. I have nothing else to say, nothing else in reserve. I've done my very best. I've been completely transparent and truthful about everything I have been doing. I've discussed everything in the thread, I've answered every question. I've kept an open mind.
If that hasn't been enough, then I don't know what to say. I feel extremely betrayed by a town that I gave my very best effort for.
I could post more reasoning, but no one seems to be listening.
Those of you who are town, when I flip, I expect you to feel guilty. You deserve it for not treating my case with the same level of critical thinking and care with which I treated yours.
Those of you who are scum, well played. I didn't think it was possible. The rsoultin night kill was absolutely brilliant.
Tere, if you are in fact scum (which is fairly likely at this point), congratulations. Your scum game is extremely scary. I've wanted to lynch you so many times, but there are so many subtle tells in your filter that seem genuine. And as soon as I townread you and gave you something to work with, you ran with it and never gave me a chance. Absolutely brutal.
If there is anyone who is willing to listen, I can explain why I am town. Until then, I give up. Tere, you win.
+ Show Spoiler +Am I frustrated? Mad? Upset? Yes, yes, and yes. Given the amount of time and effort I have put into this game, would you expect anything different, regardless of my alignment?
|
I have been considering what a silverarte/tere team would do. I thought you didn't like association analysis? Why you up to association analysis now?
I'm finding it difficult, not impossible, but rather difficult.
At any rate, silver and tere's recently lists requests have them scumreading each other, which conforms with their other statements. How silver actually votes would help inform this further.
What would their gameplan be? If they manage to lynch Trfel, and he flips town, then Tere is likely to be lynched next as the one who led on trfel and challenged him to gladiate. This would give them a net 3 for 1, with their 2 night kills taking people out; but it also leaves the final 3 at Silver and 2 others, silver wouldn't get any town cred for joining the lynch on tere, and is the scummiest read overall at the moment. So he'd probably be the day 4 lynch. Which would mean mafia loses.
If they switch the lynch to Silver, possibly bussing silver; then Tere tries to push her claim and get Trfel removed as the obvious next step. Based on current vote inclinations, that would probably happen, so it'd be again down to 3 people, with Tere instead of Silver as the survivor. Which given Tere's poor reputation, still doesn't bode well for mafia.
They could try to leave Elyas alive, and use that to try to get Elyas lynched. But doing so would be a big risk, since it means either Elyas has chances to stop night kills, OR they have a roleblocker who can stop the night kill saves, but there's a vig out there; either of those options could set mafia back enough that they lose.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
