Protoss has been eliminated, a combination of questionable plays and a map pool that did them no favors has made it so for the first time we have no protoss in the Ro8 of an ASL. Despite all that we have ended up with some really good matchups going into the Ro8.

Starting with Shine trying to see how far he can make it with his very well crafted builds against someone like Rush who has the mechanics and the grounding to really play a solid game making for an exciting clash of ideologies and playstyle.

Main event of week 1 is of course Light vs EffOrt, the best TvZer of the KeSPA era taking on what many would consider the toughest ZvT player to face in a Best-Of series with his legacy defining victories over Flash in series matches. You do not want to miss this.

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This match is a surprise to be sure, but a welcome one, as Shine finds himself back in the bracket stage for the first time since ASL14. Rush on the other hand is hoping that after a very disappointing Ro24 finish last ASL, another bracket appearance will mark the beginning of another long streak of Ro8 qualifications and mark a return to his consistent top finishes in the ASL. This will certainly be a battle between the clever tactician against strong fundamentals. Can Shine outmaneuver Rush, or will Rush see through the tricks? Whoever can impose their preferred style upon the series will emerge victorious.

Shine - You know for a guy who’s known mostly for his infamous ASL3 run with his bag of builds, Shine’s really impressed me with solid play this ASL without relying on gimmicks. Ok, his last game against Snow with his 2 hatch lurker and utilizing the neutral eggs on Colorless Fate to range the cannons was pretty cool, but otherwise his play has just been really strong. In the Ro24, he outmicroed Action in a mirror and completely blocked Shinee’s center 8 rax into 1-base 111. In the Ro16, he beat EffOrt smoothly in a build order win (EffOrt gambled on a sunken rush but Shine didn’t go hatch first), and he followed it with a clean 2-0 over Snow, including a seemingly comfortable macro game. Now, bad Protoss map pool aside, Shine’s play has certainly looked very good. Some critics will point to strong build order advantages in several cases (overpool against center 8 rax is very favorable for Zerg), and outside of his Game 1 against Snow, he really hasn’t shown as much standard play prowess. That being said, I think Shine is heavily underrated right now and while Rush might prepare hard for cheesy and unpredictable openings, Shine might surprise him with strong standard play of his own and steal the series.

Rush - Definitely the favorite in this series, Rush finished second in both of his groups. His play has been fine, the losses have mostly been silly losses like trying to hard read a 12nex on Aiolos, or getting DT rushed by Shuttle on Odyssey. But otherwise, I thought that Rush’s standard play was strong, especially in his series against BeSt in the finals of the Ro16 where he completely stuffed any attacks that BeSt was trying to do while playing a very slow and methodical style of Terran. Those games demonstrated his main strength: impenetrable defense, sharp reactions, and still having the capacity to really get good vulture harass off. Now, TvZ and TvP are very different matchups, and Rush isn’t as big of a 111 user as other Terrans in the current meta, with him and Light preferring to stick to +1 ebay builds over vulture/wraith harass play. However, I do think that plays to his advantage in this series, as going 111 makes the game much more volatile and a harass going wrong could instantly put you in an unfavorable position. That being said, Rush will still need to watch for Shine’s muta micro, which he demonstrated is still respectable.

Series Outlook - There’s been a change to his ASL format, as we have one pre-selected map to start the series on, with the loser picking each subsequent map. Colorless Fate is our first map of choice, so definitely a strong opening map for Shine and his clever tactics and builds. However, having a guaranteed look at the map also gives Rush an opportunity to plan for creative strategies that Shine may try to launch at him, and whoever he will be practicing with will surely seek to test his defensive and scouting prowess. I do think that on Colorless Fate or Odyssey, or even Aiolos for that matter, Shine will come out with some crazy over the top strategy that will catch Rush off guard. There are definitely some good picks in the pool to try to throw off your opponent. The downside is that the 4p maps are all just really strong macro maps that play more into Rush’s style, which I’m sure he’ll lean on over the course of the series. But if Shine can pull off the upset in Game 1 and the two players trade their map picks back and forth, Shine has an avenue to find a 3-2 upset over Rush.

Rush Wins 3-1 To Advance To The Ro4!

Day 2 of the quarterfinals features Light vs EffOrt. Light, the Kespa TvZ specialist, crushed it in his round of 16 group. First, he had to take down JyJ. This was the TvT of the tournament. The game cruised into the late stages where CattleBruiser charged into battle. Light was at a pretty big disadvantage in army count and his Yamato usage at one point became questionable. Then he comes in with one of the most devastating EMPs I’ve ever witnessed in a TvT. Next he faced hero. His first game didn’t go well and he went down 0-1 in the best of three. After the minor inconvenience, Light won the next two games and slapped hero down into the final match.

EffOrt has only met weak Terrans in this tournament. He had a 2-0 series against Risesky in the qualifiers and then had another series win against Shinee. However, since the tournament started, EffOrt’s been eating the ice cream known as Rocky Road. He has failed to win his first match in either of his groups and has had to crawl his way out of the bottom. Fortunately, each of the winner’s matches featured Protoss players (Mini and Snow). On the bright side, EffOrt went 4-0 against those two and remains undefeated against non-Zerg opponents.

Predicting the next 3 to 5 games for these players is tougher than ever with the changes to the map pool. For the first time, we have no prior knowledge of the entire map lineup. The loser gets to make the pick. Instead, let’s just break down the head-to-head stats and see who comes out on top.

Light and EffOrt have played three times, but somehow they have never played an actual series. Their first two meetings came way back in ASL Season 2, where they split a pair of best of ones. It took another 14 seasons for the rematch, with EffOrt taking the win in ASL 16. That gives EffOrt the 2-1 head-to-head, but all three games were best of ones in the Round of 24. This will be the first time we get to see these two actually adjust to each other over a series.

The deeper numbers make this matchup much more interesting. EffOrt has a 12-8 series record against Terran, good for a 60% win rate, but apparently giving him more games is a terrible idea. EffOrt is 5-0 in Bo3+ series against Terran and 3-0 specifically in Bo5s. Those three Bo5 wins came against Last, Mind and, most famously, Flash. He didn't exactly squeak through the easy part of the Terran roster.

Light has considerably more ZvT experience on the other side, with a 19-19 series record, but his Bo5 numbers tell a different story than just a 50% win rate. Light is 3-1 in Bo5s against Zerg, with wins over Soma, Action and Jaedong and his only loss coming against hero. So, we have EffOrt, who has never lost a Bo5 to a Terran, against Light, who has only lost one Bo5 to a Zerg. They've spent most of ASL's history narrowly missing each other, but now we get a chance to see who the champ really is between these two talented players.

EffOrt wins 3-2 in the best series of the 2020’s and Advance To The Ro4!

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Writers: FlashFTW, BisuDagger
Graphics: v1
Editors: BLinD-RawR