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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
Seeker *
Profile Blog Joined April 2005
Where dat snitch at?36074 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-27 23:59:10
February 27 2022 21:42 GMT
#1
Henceforth, all discussions pertaining to the topic of the Russo-Ukrainian War will take place in this thread.

We will be monitoring this thread very closely so please think very carefully before you post. This is a very sensitive subject, so we ask everyone to please do their best to not be inconsiderate and blunt.

As always, TL holds itself to a higher standard than other websites out there. Please adhere to our rules and guidelines so that we can create a safe space for these types of discussions.
ModeratorI've been managing Liquibets for 11 years! Bonjwa fo sho >.<
TL+ Member
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16166 Posts
February 27 2022 21:51 GMT
#2
Another city under Russian control

Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
Slydie
Profile Joined August 2013
1639 Posts
February 27 2022 21:51 GMT
#3
Thanks! It makes sense to have an own thread, but it will be hard to keep the other politics threads free of this topic of global implications.

I am hoping this thread will be rather short, but I fear the worst.
Buff the siegetank
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16166 Posts
February 27 2022 22:03 GMT
#4
Tomorrow is going to be an absolute bloodbath on the Russian markets. I am fully expecting the ruble to drop at least 50% unless something drastic happens for Russia to agree to leave Ukraine, which has such a little chance of happening

Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3819 Posts
February 27 2022 22:03 GMT
#5
On February 28 2022 06:50 whaski wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 28 2022 05:19 Legan wrote:
According to Bellingcat's executive director, there was an essay posted yesterday that got deleted shortly afterwards. The essay seemed to be meant to be posted after Russian forces had successfully taken Kyiv.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498025819054264328?cxt=HHwWkMC-kfWih8opAAAA


"The Ukrainian question"... It is like attempt to get in historybooks as the most foul regime IF this stuff is real. And preplanned war explained...

And this is the part where I don't believe it to be real. It simply doesn't fit the Russian narrative of denazification, drug addicts, CIA backed Maidan as a minority opinion.

You can safely assume that if Russia would have won this quickly, you would have read about liberation, some new fake representatives welcoming Putin, how they removed thugs etc...

So even if this actually was at those news sites, (which is hard to proof...) given the fact that anonymous (and whoever is using this label as a cover...) is doing a really bang up job taking over or down nearly every Russian web page to ever have existed, I wouldn't pay too much attention to it.

Thats like when supposedly TASS published the exact same numbers as the Ukrainian MoD but sourcing the Russian MoD.... This was like the laziest fake of all time. Even in a war where everyone was perfectly honest (ask your history teacher when this happened the last time...) you would never get to the same numbers from both sides.
Fildun
Profile Joined December 2012
Netherlands4107 Posts
February 27 2022 22:06 GMT
#6
Belarus has announced their official entry into the war, will probably open up another front to the west of the current Kiev front. Maybe targeting Lutsk into Lviv?
From what I've seen Russia has not yet used any of their drones and more indiscriminate artillery, so from a purely warfare perspective they still have a bunch of options left. Doesn't mean that this wasn't an objectively bad day for them, because it certainly was.
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria732 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-27 22:15:58
February 27 2022 22:14 GMT
#7
On February 28 2022 07:06 Fildun wrote:
Belarus has announced their official entry into the war, will probably open up another front to the west of the current Kiev front. Maybe targeting Lutsk into Lviv?
From what I've seen Russia has not yet used any of their drones and more indiscriminate artillery, so from a purely warfare perspective they still have a bunch of options left. Doesn't mean that this wasn't an objectively bad day for them, because it certainly was.


The fact that they don't use indiscriminate artillery implies that Putin isn't completely irrational as some would like to point out. Therefore, I don't believe in his latest nuclear weapon bluff for that same reason. However, it does serve as "watch out".

In either case, one of the most amazing stories today for me is that Russian state media is banned in the EU. I've been getting increasingly annoyed at RT (Russia Today) propaganda and also their videos on YouTube when they come up randomly. Thank god for that.
Link: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/feb/27/eu-ban-russian-state-backed-channels-rt-sputnik

Next good news is EU committing as a whole to supply Ukraine with weaponry
Dav1oN
Profile Joined January 2012
Ukraine3140 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-27 22:22:34
February 27 2022 22:22 GMT
#8
Hopefully we won't have to enter this thread frequently and it'll become useless very soon, as I'm hoping for the mess to end relatively soon. I also dream about rebuilding/repairing Ukraine for the better and helping to build a proper democratic Russia as their citizens deserves better and they do have smart capable people
In memory of Geoff "iNcontroL" Robinson 11.09.1985 - 21.07.2019 A tribute to incredible man, embodiment of joy, esports titan, starcraft community pillar all in one. You will always be remembered!
Dan HH
Profile Joined July 2012
Romania8746 Posts
February 27 2022 22:29 GMT
#9
On February 28 2022 07:06 Fildun wrote:
Belarus has announced their official entry into the war, will probably open up another front to the west of the current Kiev front. Maybe targeting Lutsk into Lviv?
From what I've seen Russia has not yet used any of their drones and more indiscriminate artillery, so from a purely warfare perspective they still have a bunch of options left. Doesn't mean that this wasn't an objectively bad day for them, because it certainly was.

Have they? I've been seeing some noise about this but none of it seems believable. Zelensky talked with Lukashenko earlier and and the conclusion of those talks is that a Ukrainian and Russian delegation is to hold talks in the morning on the Belarus border. Also, not even Russia is officially in a war.
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3819 Posts
February 27 2022 22:33 GMT
#10
Supposedly the EU is also sending fighter planes as part of the new support package and I'm really wondering which planes that could be. Since it would require planes Ukraine is familiar with, I would probably guess they are talking about Polish Mig-29.
With new F35 being on the way, they would probably be available.

Oh, and I would really love to know how those values in those decisions are computed for outdated equipment (which, be honest, is most of the equipment sent...). E.g. those Polish Mig-29 were gifted by Germany (they were former GDR planes) So value = 0, add them as a tip! Or do they look at the most recent sale on Ebay?
Obviously, it is much easier for stuff like Stingers or rifles..
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16166 Posts
February 27 2022 22:36 GMT
#11
My limited knowledge of the financial markets tell me that this move is going to make things worse for everyone, right?

Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13774 Posts
February 27 2022 22:36 GMT
#12
On February 28 2022 07:33 mahrgell wrote:
Oh, and I would really love to know how those values in those decisions are computed for outdated equipment (which, be honest, is most of the equipment sent...). E.g. those Polish Mig-29 were gifted by Germany (they were former GDR planes) So value = 0, add them as a tip! Or do they look at the most recent sale on Ebay?
Obviously, it is much easier for stuff like Stingers or rifles..

Those planes in particular aren't state of the art, but they are still used by even Russia. With modern upgrades they're pretty good.

It's a hand-me-down, essentially.
If you want peace, abandon the Kurds.
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3819 Posts
February 27 2022 22:43 GMT
#13
On February 28 2022 07:36 plasmidghost wrote:
My limited knowledge of the financial markets tell me that this move is going to make things worse for everyone, right?

https://twitter.com/FGoria/status/1498058707116208132


In a way it is similar to the freeze the west applied to Russian values in the west. But with a wider radius, as Western freezes still had some targeting.

Now besides the freeze, the main consequence, even if the freeze is cancelled at some point is the loss of trust. And yes, that works both ways, its just that the western financial markets can do without some oligarchs money because he is feared of it getting frozen, while the Russian financial markets are in trouble without western money, e.g. Norways investment fonds, because they now know they can get frozen at will.

And this loss in trust alone of course will cause shock waves, because even if you we a firm Russian believer, you do not want to be in the market whenever those funds would become unfrozen. (And if you expect everything become even worse, like confiscation and shit you don't wanna be in the market either...)
Blitzkrieg0
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States13092 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-27 22:57:35
February 27 2022 22:55 GMT
#14
Interesting article about the motivations of Putin. Talks about how Putin underestimated Zelenskiy and thought he would flee in a repeat of Afghanistan. This would have allowed the Russians to take over with their own puppet dictator.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin-miscalculation/

No country can prevail as an occupying force so if this is all true we can hopefully see Putin executing his exit strategy.
I'll always be your shadow and veil your eyes from states of ain soph aur.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States39539 Posts
February 27 2022 23:02 GMT
#15
On February 28 2022 07:33 mahrgell wrote:
Supposedly the EU is also sending fighter planes as part of the new support package and I'm really wondering which planes that could be. Since it would require planes Ukraine is familiar with, I would probably guess they are talking about Polish Mig-29.
With new F35 being on the way, they would probably be available.

Oh, and I would really love to know how those values in those decisions are computed for outdated equipment (which, be honest, is most of the equipment sent...). E.g. those Polish Mig-29 were gifted by Germany (they were former GDR planes) So value = 0, add them as a tip! Or do they look at the most recent sale on Ebay?
Obviously, it is much easier for stuff like Stingers or rifles..

Probably not super helpful to send Ukraine jets they don't know how to fly and have no infrastructure to support. Makes more sense to send them more of what they already know how to use.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16166 Posts
February 27 2022 23:12 GMT
#16
I don't mean to fearmonger, but this is extremely concerning

Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain16647 Posts
February 27 2022 23:19 GMT
#17
On February 28 2022 08:02 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 28 2022 07:33 mahrgell wrote:
Supposedly the EU is also sending fighter planes as part of the new support package and I'm really wondering which planes that could be. Since it would require planes Ukraine is familiar with, I would probably guess they are talking about Polish Mig-29.
With new F35 being on the way, they would probably be available.

Oh, and I would really love to know how those values in those decisions are computed for outdated equipment (which, be honest, is most of the equipment sent...). E.g. those Polish Mig-29 were gifted by Germany (they were former GDR planes) So value = 0, add them as a tip! Or do they look at the most recent sale on Ebay?
Obviously, it is much easier for stuff like Stingers or rifles..

Probably not super helpful to send Ukraine jets they don't know how to fly and have no infrastructure to support. Makes more sense to send them more of what they already know how to use.

isn't that exactly what mahrgell said?
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States39419 Posts
February 27 2022 23:31 GMT
#18
So the Jets are already in Ukraine according to this guy.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16166 Posts
February 27 2022 23:36 GMT
#19
Disinformation is ramping up

Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16166 Posts
February 27 2022 23:48 GMT
#20
Lots of extremely knowledgeable people are sounding the alarm. Monday for all of us might be one of the most consequential days in human history depending on how Putun and the Russian citizens react to their economy collapsing

Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
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