The penultimate stop. The long and winding road has lead us to an interesting of mirrors before the finals.

Rush and Light are the two best terrans and with it being a Bo7 we're probably going to be going in for a long night of action.

On the other side, the last 6 seasons of ASL was dominated between these two, the first 4 of them by Soulkey and the last 2 by Soma, if the first night is a long war, this will be more akin to a high intensity knife fight.

Either way it shakes for the players, for the fans it all ends in an epic TvZ clash for the finals.

Liquipedia

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Rush - Rush’s path to the semifinals hasn’t been the easiest, given that he Advanced second both times in the group stage, and had to pull a reverse sweep against Shine in the Ro8. But this will be his first TvT series this tournament run, with all his previous matchups being TvPs and TvZs. Overall, Rush’s performance this ASL has been very mediocre. He lost some silly games against Shuttle and BeSt. Against Shine, he did not look like a confident Terran player dealing with Shine’s mutalisk pressure. However, his online play has been far better compared to what he’s looked like this tournament. He’s hot coming off the back of a 4k in proleague (though he did end up losing out on the all-kill by losing to Light…). He’s also 15-5 in his last 20 matches, with 3 of those losses coming against Soma. He even beat Soulkey 4-3 in a sponmatch series. But as we know, online play is nothing like offline play (looking at you Snow…) and Rush will definitely have his work cut out for him unless he can demonstrate better play in the offline settings.

Light - Light’s had a relatively smooth road to the semifinals, advancing first out of his Ro16 group, and won convincingly against EffOrt 3-1. However, his one TvT that he played against JyJ in the Ro16 was not all that convincing if I have to admit. Despite the win, Light found himself heavily behind in that game, relying on JyJ throwing after getting all his BCs EMPed in the late game to win a big victory and snowball into the win. Otherwise, Light has looked fairly strong throughout his run thus far. In offline settings, Light is only 12-8, having lost a bo9 series against Soulkey 4-5 for most of his losses, while picking up a solid 4-1 win over BeSt. In offline settings, I think Light will feel less pressure than Rush to perform in all honesty, as he always seems to have such a calm demeanor, almost like he doesn’t care. However, he shouldn’t get too carefree with his play, as some loose openings is where he stumbles hard in TvTs.

Series Outlook - Sponmatches between the two show a slightly better picture for Rush, as their head to head in the past 30 days is 2-1 for Rush, though their last game was an early win for Light after he countered Rush’s 12.5rax FE with fast siege pressure. Ironically, Rush also took a game off Light in mid-September doing the exact same thing, so it will be interesting to see if something similar happens in their series. Early game TvT is all about seeing if you can find some sneaky advantage like making an extra vulture or two for early pressure when your opponent is not prepared, or trying some fast starport to throw your opponent’s build off. Between the two players, I think that Rush is the more likely player to attempt some more tricky openers. When Light played against FlaSh last ASL, he got absolutely trounced, sticking to very standard openers while FlaSh exploited his tendencies. I’d like to think Light has learned from those mistakes from last tournament and will utilize those lessons to craft a more diverse TvT early game. In the mid and late game, both players feel very evenly matched. Rush is definitely still the more likely of the two to try something in the mid game, like drop play or some 2 starport wraith surprise. Light’s simply too standard with his gameplay where he never feels the need to try something in TvT, he just sticks to the standard basics and tries to outplay his opponent that way. It’s a tough matchup to call honestly, but I think historically Light is the stronger TvT player, so I’ll have to give the nod to him.

Light Wins 4-3 And Advances To The Grand Finals!

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Day 2 of the semifinals gives us Soma vs Soulkey, and apparently six straight championships were not enough for these two. Soulkey won four consecutive titles from ASL 16 through ASL 19. Soma picked up the next two. Now the defending champion is chasing his third, and the man who already knows how to do that is standing in his way.

Soma delivered the 3-1 as predicted against Jaedong, but Jaedong came out swinging. Jaedong’s Zerglings broke through and destroyed Soma’s Spire, ending the first game in just over four minutes. Soma apparently liked that idea because he answered with early Zergling attacks in the next two games. He then finished things off on Octagon with Zergling pressure and strong air control. Soma’s fantastic play ended the series in just four games and sent him to the semifinals.

Soulkey had a longer night against Leta, even though the series lasted one less game. Leta tried mech, forward Barracks, and plenty of pressure, but Soulkey kept finding ways to survive and take control. In game two, Leta’s early bunker pressure gave him a chance, but Soulkey held on and later attacked his natural while the Terran army was out on the map. By game three, Soulkey was even infesting a Command Center. Taking Leta’s semifinal spot wasn’t enough. He wanted his buildings too. Soulkey finished the series 3-0 and now gets a ZvZ test against Soma.

Unlike the Jaedong matchup, these two actually have some ASL history. Soma won their first meeting in the ASL 9 Round of 16, although that was only a best of one. Soulkey got his revenge in ASL 14 with a 2-1 win in the losers’ match, knocking Soma out of the tournament. That puts them at 1-1 in matches and 2-2 in maps. Somehow, both meetings happened before either player won an ASL title. They have collected six between them since then, so a rematch is overdue.

The Bo7 numbers give us something else to look at. Before this season, each player had played just one ASL ZvZ Bo7, and both series went the distance. Soma lost 3-4 to Queen in the ASL 10 final, while Soulkey beat hero 4-3 in the ASL 17 final. Soulkey has the better result, but one series each is not much to work with. Soma has also won two championships since that loss to Queen and I doubt he is losing sleep over it.

Soma’s recent ZvZ playoff results are much more encouraging. He swept hero 3-0 in last season’s quarterfinals and just beat Jaedong 3-1. That gives him six wins in seven maps across those two series. Soulkey is going to be a tough opponent, but Soma has good reason to feel confident.

Soulkey also had to get through some ZvZ this season. He lost his opening Round of 16 game to hero, then beat JyJ 2-0 to stay alive. When he got another shot at hero in the final match, he won 2-0 and advanced. Losing the first game clearly did not bother him too much. Soma will need more than a good start to put this series away.

I’m sticking with Soma, but I don’t expect another easy 3-1. This time we will get all seven games, but Soma will seal it with a 4-3 victory.

Soma Advances To The Grand Finals!

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Writers: FlashFTW, BisuDagger
Graphics: v1
Editors: BLinD-RawR