Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 39

On February 18 2015 09:12 Trfel wrote:
Sorry for the post spam. My thoughts are coming more randomly at the moment.

Part of me is wondering if rsoultin was killed to help hide a mafia!jarjarbinks. I'm not at all confident in reading a Day 2 jarjarbinks, in the past I've just used rsoultin for that read. Still, though, rsoultin seemed pretty convinced that jarjarbinks is town, so I guess I'll work with that for now.

On February 18 2015 09:19 Trfel wrote:
Jarjarbinks, it would be great if you would make yourself extremely clear town so I don't have to worry about this. Can you do that for me?

On February 18 2015 09:26 The Shining wrote:
I'm having trouble with that, too, Trfel.

I'm also having trouble with her last few reads. Pretty drunk off of WIFOM. Was she killed to immortalize your town read or frame me with her suspicions? In my experience, scum likes to kill a strong townie after they strong town a scum player. Student Mafia V, we killed GB right after he strong towned me. Trfel, you're not doing that again, are you?

I'm taking a break to go eat dinner but something isn't sitting right with that RSo kill. I'll be back.

On February 18 2015 09:33 Trfel wrote:
I'm not scum. I could write a book on why I'm not scum. I don't think that is necessary, and I'm hoping that my filter speaks for itself.

There are several reasons for why rsoultin was killed. I will list all of them.
[list][*]Rsoultin has been a very solid townread for basically everyone, if not everyone (I will check and see if anyone was not townreading rsoultin). In addition, she's played really well for Day 1 and Night 1.
[*]Rsoultin has had the biggest filter, and also been the most important at generating discussion. If mafia recognized this, the night kill makes a lot of sense to reduce the activity of town.
[*]Doctor save dodge (please please please don't take offense! I doubt that this is the case, and even if this was the reason for the night kill, then the mafia are stupid. But if I'm going to be listing all of the reasons for a night kill, this has to be included.)
[*]Clear some of the pressure on mafia players.
[*]Make town mislynch a townie who rsoultin was targeting, since town thought that they were trying to take the pressure off of them.

Ironically, I don't think it is wise for mafia to kill someone who is townreading them to keep the townread saved away for future use. It's more useful to have that player continually state that they are townreading the mafia in the thread

My point is, night kill analysis is WIFOM. Guessing the reason for the night kill is extremely difficult to do that I don't think it is worth the effort. What is worth the effort is rereading rsoultin's filter and how everyone has read/interacted with rsoultin, given the information that rsoultin is town. I'm probably going to skim-read the entire thread, and take a detailed look at everything mentioning rsoultin.

On February 18 2015 09:22 jarjarbinks wrote:


Lol you've been in my past games. I think I'm getting better but who knows. I'm workin up my Tere right now but im free to chat with after

On February 18 2015 10:38 jarjarbinks wrote:
Sorry I just got back. Whatsup?

On February 17 2015 04:25 rsoultin wrote:


He's calling me mean ;o;

Okay, so, I know this means nothing to y'all probably, but my brother is reading very genuine to me this game. If you wonder why I'm joking around with him, a lot of it is to see how he responds (and a slightly smaller portion just cause I enjoy him ). Granted, I haven't seen him play scum, but I'd bet he's town this game. Just my two cents.

On February 17 2015 10:54 rsoultin wrote:
It could be argued that JJB might know too much, and his game looks so much better than his last ones that lol I have had a seed of doubt or two, not gonna lie. However he was very active keeping the discussion open so I think he's probably still town.

On February 18 2015 00:42 rsoultin wrote:


Lol, I gotcha, and no worries. This was always approached with a grain of salt, and I actually think it counts against her more than for her.

On February 18 2015 08:36 rsoultin wrote:
Alright, Shining, lol. I must admit that the only thing bugging me really was your behavior around EoD, so it gets a pass for now. If you keep doing that shit, though, I'll try my darndest to get you lynched

I did half-catch you last time so I can put the paranoia away for a little while longer.

On February 18 2015 10:51 Trfel wrote:
Okay, I've gone through rsoultin's filter. Unfortunately, a good amount of it was talking to Hier and me, and that doesn't really help me at this time, since I already know my alignment and Hier is dead. A lot of rsoultin's statements have already been influential in my reads, so there actually wasn't as much new useful information as I had hoped (not rsoultin's fault!). I really like bullet point lists, but the post looks terrible with those, so I'll just use lines to divide things. I think it's mostly readable. (for those of you who think I spend too much time on formatting, believe me, it's important. In my first game, people often avoided reading my posts due to poor formatting.)

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Last game The Shining played, he was mafia. I was also in that game, and I was mafia. I opened with a controversial opening that made me the center of attention. This game, I opened with a controversial opening again, which made me the center of attention for the first page or so (not very long). The Shining was suspicious of me, as expected. However, he townread Hier for proposing the Bridges method because it put him in the spotlight. Hrm.

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I guess that takes a lot of the steam out of the mafia!jarjarbinks idea. Then again...

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Now I'm really wishing that I had asked rsoultin to elaborate on this instead of intentionally avoiding discussion on the topic. I have absolutely no idea why she would say this. Does anyone know?

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Rsoultin is scumreading The Shining while I am not, but all the same, I will keep this in mind.

On February 17 2015 22:57 zlefin wrote:
oh, and I'm dinging tere another point for the suspicions from here and trfel's analysis.

On February 18 2015 11:00 jarjarbinks wrote:
I'm not gonna lie, I am less confident in this one.

Tere:

1: Hier voted for Tere: This is definitely WIFOM. This is also based on numbers I've seen and will be hard to explain, but I will try my best. WIFOM reads are generally perceived as 50-50. From what I have seen in previous (non-newbie games), WIFOM reads from town are actually decent reads on average. Better than 50-50. Especially the reads where the dead townie voted for someone on his/her own. This is great (and you could say hard for me to prove) but you do have to ask yourself if Hier was simply retaling (if forgot the acronym) Tere's aggressive lynch or if he was on to something. I honestly think Hier believed in his vote, which makes me think Tere is more suspicious.

2. Sometimes Tier has been unresponsive to rather simple or weak pokes at her. I've never played with her before and she could play this way as town, but I think this is suspicious. I think this argument has been made by others, so I won't dive too hard, but it is suspicious.

3. Tere was in the bandwagon group, at least to begin with, but then went hard on Hier as time went on. In my eyes, this shows she acted the most like town of the four (Tere, Trf, Silver, Elyas). I put her in this group because she initially bandwagonned.

Making a caveat to my own biases, I perceived her to act like my sister due to the first few posts she's made. I will try not to do that in the future.

On February 18 2015 12:44 Trfel wrote:
Anyone there who wants to chat?

On February 18 2015 13:14 jarjarbinks wrote:
I didn't respond because part of it sounded hypocritical about the bandwagon thing coming from you and I didn't like how you EOD'd.

GIve me a sec, I'll do it by point.