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On February 17 2015 01:52 Tere wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 01:37 Trfel wrote:I guess it's probably best that I post this now. My thoughts on why lynching Hier isn't necessarily the best idea. Hier opened up the game by posting his Bridges method. By advocating something with direct impact on all players, people naturally responded, and it turned out that the responses were mostly negative. It seems that this immediately frustrated Hier a bit, judging by the tone of his first post after that. ( link if you want it) From there, Hier is bombarded with questions. This seems to frustrate him more, and he doesn't answer all of them. One answer that he does provide is that he has no reads, which obviously leads to a whole new wave of questions. Hier posts a scumread on rsoultin. ( link if you want it) This read actually isn't all that bad. While rsoultin and I have already discussed why the points addressed here make perfect sense, from Hier's perspective, it doesn't make sense. It is normally expected that someone explains their pushes, not asks everyone else for their opinions. Regardless of Hier's alignment, he is clearly frustrated. This leads to his posts being more sarcastic and less responsive, leading to people scumreading him even more (I don't need to post links to posts where Hier is clearly frustrated, it is too obvious). This also would discourage Hier from providing reads. That's why I can see Hier's play coming from a townie. His play hasn't been good, but it isn't unreasonable. That said, if he doesn't do anything to change his play in the near future, he could very well be the best lynch for the day (at least, as I see it). Thoughts? What I keep coming back to is that surely a scum coach and a scum QT would have persuaded Hier to drop the Bridges idea altogether, and / or nipped it in the bud if he posted it without consultation. Hier isn't being town helpful at the moment, but stubbornly sticking your neck out like Hier has isn't that helpful for a scum wincon.. I could be persuaded to another wagon, for sure. Just not sure I am seeing an obvious one. zlefin's filter also doesn't look appealing to me, but if this is their very first game that's equally a possibility for that. On February 17 2015 02:13 Tere wrote:
You do have a point that town coaching should have picked up on that, too, though Trfel.
Scum and town can be stubborn though *shrug* I'm almost wondering if this is a scumslip. Why would a town player, particularly one who is new to TL Mafia (thus, probably unfamiliar with both coaching and scum QT's, though I have no clue what the other mafia sites play like so this could be wrong), think of the possibility of a player receiving help from a scum coach or a scum QT and only upon suggestion think of help from a town coach?
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On February 17 2015 02:13 Trfel wrote:
I just realized. There's been almost nothing going as far as counterwagons to Hier. Just a really small push from The Shining on zlefin.
If Hier really is mafia, I would expect to see some sort of counter push (unless it actually is a The Shining and Hier scumteam).
This makes me even more hesitant to lynch Hier. It just really feels like a typical newbie game Day 1 mislynch.
Tere, I don't know at the moment. And rsoultin, I'm really hesitant to lynch someone who is making sense when they have just replaced into the game. That seems silly.
You and Shining both are countering xP JJB also doesn't want to lynch Hier unless I'm misremembering. There's enough counterpush here with only two scum in the game. That said, I'd like to see a counterwagon since I'm still waiting on Hier's response to me.
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Okay, I had better head out. I wish I could take another look at Tere's filter, but I never got around to it (too busy keeping up with the current events of the thread).
I will be back later today, though again, I will be gone for a few hours leading up to the lynch deadline and possibly the deadline itself. I suppose I will throw my vote on Hier for now, though if someone else has a lynch that they think is better, I would really appreciate that. And I would still like thoughts from The Shining and Hier, in particular.
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Meh -_- Truffle
Why you're fighting this Hier lynch so much, yet voting for him anyway and setting up for an AFK vote...it is not giving me the warm town fuzzies.
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On February 17 2015 02:19 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 01:52 Tere wrote:On February 17 2015 01:37 Trfel wrote:I guess it's probably best that I post this now. My thoughts on why lynching Hier isn't necessarily the best idea. Hier opened up the game by posting his Bridges method. By advocating something with direct impact on all players, people naturally responded, and it turned out that the responses were mostly negative. It seems that this immediately frustrated Hier a bit, judging by the tone of his first post after that. ( link if you want it) From there, Hier is bombarded with questions. This seems to frustrate him more, and he doesn't answer all of them. One answer that he does provide is that he has no reads, which obviously leads to a whole new wave of questions. Hier posts a scumread on rsoultin. ( link if you want it) This read actually isn't all that bad. While rsoultin and I have already discussed why the points addressed here make perfect sense, from Hier's perspective, it doesn't make sense. It is normally expected that someone explains their pushes, not asks everyone else for their opinions. Regardless of Hier's alignment, he is clearly frustrated. This leads to his posts being more sarcastic and less responsive, leading to people scumreading him even more (I don't need to post links to posts where Hier is clearly frustrated, it is too obvious). This also would discourage Hier from providing reads. That's why I can see Hier's play coming from a townie. His play hasn't been good, but it isn't unreasonable. That said, if he doesn't do anything to change his play in the near future, he could very well be the best lynch for the day (at least, as I see it). Thoughts? What I keep coming back to is that surely a scum coach and a scum QT would have persuaded Hier to drop the Bridges idea altogether, and / or nipped it in the bud if he posted it without consultation. Hier isn't being town helpful at the moment, but stubbornly sticking your neck out like Hier has isn't that helpful for a scum wincon.. I could be persuaded to another wagon, for sure. Just not sure I am seeing an obvious one. zlefin's filter also doesn't look appealing to me, but if this is their very first game that's equally a possibility for that. Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 02:13 Tere wrote:
You do have a point that town coaching should have picked up on that, too, though Trfel.
Scum and town can be stubborn though *shrug* I'm almost wondering if this is a scumslip. Why would a town player, particularly one who is new to TL Mafia (thus, probably unfamiliar with both coaching and scum QT's, though I have no clue what the other mafia sites play like so this could be wrong), think of the possibility of a player receiving help from a scum coach or a scum QT and only upon suggestion think of help from a town coach?
Attention, attention, step away from the tunnel! Attention! :D
(Yeah, I wasn't really thinking of things in terms of coaches TBH - I've never played on a site that has them. I was more thinking of the scumboard and then flung the coach in there without thinking it through to the logical conclusion).
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On February 17 2015 02:26 rsoultin wrote:
Meh -_- Truffle
Why you're fighting this Hier lynch so much, yet voting for him anyway and setting up for an AFK vote...it is not giving me the warm town fuzzies. I'm not going to afk vote. Please.
I take full responsibility for my vote. I'm just letting you know that you may not have my support for a vote switch late in the day.
I'm showing resistance for the Hier lynch for several reasons. The first being that there isn't many other people fighting it, and the lynch isn't as solid as I would like. The second is that if people have other ideas, I would really, really, like to hear them, and not have the lynch sealed up. The third is that if Hier does come back, if my "frustrated town" guess is correct, having some support would make him MUCH more likely to try and defend himself.
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On February 17 2015 02:26 rsoultin wrote:
Meh -_- Truffle
Why you're fighting this Hier lynch so much, yet voting for him anyway and setting up for an AFK vote...it is not giving me the warm town fuzzies.
Me neither.
Lack of alternate wagon push = inexperienced scum partner?
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Trfel, why aren't you pushing for the Shining lynch, you built up a case on him?
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I miss being able to see who's online and reading the thread 
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On February 17 2015 02:30 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 02:26 rsoultin wrote:
Meh -_- Truffle
Why you're fighting this Hier lynch so much, yet voting for him anyway and setting up for an AFK vote...it is not giving me the warm town fuzzies. I'm not going to afk vote. Please. I take full responsibility for my vote. I'm just letting you know that you may not have my support for a vote switch late in the day. I'm showing resistance for the Hier lynch for several reasons. The first being that there isn't many other people fighting it, and the lynch isn't as solid as I would like. The second is that if people have other ideas, I would really, really, like to hear them, and not have the lynch sealed up. The third is that if Hier does come back, if my "frustrated town" guess is correct, having some support would make him MUCH more likely to try and defend himself.
If you believe I'm town this game, trust that I will definitely do my best to try to bring the towniness out of Hier before lynching him. I wanted you to start that counterwagon, though, since you seem so certain that Hier is not the lynch. You're not starting it. This is concerning. But apparently you have to go, so I'll just...lol, figure it out from here as best I can xP
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On February 17 2015 02:30 Tere wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 02:26 rsoultin wrote:
Meh -_- Truffle
Why you're fighting this Hier lynch so much, yet voting for him anyway and setting up for an AFK vote...it is not giving me the warm town fuzzies. Me neither. Lack of alternate wagon push = inexperienced scum partner? Yes, that is a distinct possibility. I suppose it's also possible that Hier quit and told his partner to bus.
I know it's ridiculous, and I can't explain it, but Tere still seems suspicious to me. Her logic is fine, her reads are fine, her tone is comfortable and relaxed, but everything else seems really off. Just, please, keep an eye out...
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Experience copy / paste from coaching board.
"I'm not really a complete newbie - just new to Team Liquid. I've probably played in 20 - 25 timed forum mafia games in the past 4 - 5 years, and read about the same number. However, quite a few of those have been on very casual sites where reading and analysis really isn't a thing, hence the shift (I hope) to a site that plays a little more seriously."
So I've played quite a few games, but I'm not always the greatest case maker, and I tend to rely on tonal reads probably more than I ought, if I'm honest.
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On February 17 2015 02:31 Tere wrote:
Trfel, why aren't you pushing for the Shining lynch, you built up a case on him?
That wasn't so much a case, as a collection of thoughts. If it was a case, believe me that I would be pushing it, and you would know.
Rsoultin, I don't see any reasonably appealing counterwagons to someone who isn't really defending himself.
And I really do need to leave. Stop being so distracting.
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On February 17 2015 02:33 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 02:30 Tere wrote:On February 17 2015 02:26 rsoultin wrote:
Meh -_- Truffle
Why you're fighting this Hier lynch so much, yet voting for him anyway and setting up for an AFK vote...it is not giving me the warm town fuzzies. Me neither. Lack of alternate wagon push = inexperienced scum partner? Yes, that is a distinct possibility. I suppose it's also possible that Hier quit and told his partner to bus.
I know it's ridiculous, and I can't explain it, but Tere still seems suspicious to me. Her logic is fine, her reads are fine, her tone is comfortable and relaxed, but everything else seems really off. Just, please, keep an eye out...
Uhhh... you want to flesh that out a bit? :D
(no, I'm not bussing Hier)
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On February 17 2015 02:36 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 02:31 Tere wrote:
Trfel, why aren't you pushing for the Shining lynch, you built up a case on him? That wasn't so much a case, as a collection of thoughts. If it was a case, believe me that I would be pushing it, and you would know. Rsoultin, I don't see any reasonably appealing counterwagons to someone who isn't really defending himself. And I really do need to leave. Stop being so distracting.
But, but shinies!
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On February 17 2015 02:35 Tere wrote:
Experience copy / paste from coaching board.
"I'm not really a complete newbie - just new to Team Liquid. I've probably played in 20 - 25 timed forum mafia games in the past 4 - 5 years, and read about the same number. However, quite a few of those have been on very casual sites where reading and analysis really isn't a thing, hence the shift (I hope) to a site that plays a little more seriously."
So I've played quite a few games, but I'm not always the greatest case maker, and I tend to rely on tonal reads probably more than I ought, if I'm honest.
Lol, I think this makes you the most experienced of all of us, then xP I'm currently playing my 8th and 9th games here...and have played several on a site that rarely sees more than 10 pages per game. (That's where Shining and I are from).
Hm...I don't think Truffle thinks you're bussing Hier. He really doesn't seem to think Hier is scum. My problem with his arguments is they argue Hier to null, not really to town. I'd like to see some more input from he lower-volume players. Can you talk to me about Zle?
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I can try!
First off, I think this is his first game:
On February 01 2015 20:25 zlefin wrote:
I should try this one of these days, so
/in
Then says he's a slight town read on trfel and slight scum on jarjar, null on the rest. Wants to consider policy lynching for inactivity after 12 hours, which is a little keen IMO. Says reads are mostly tonal and impressions, which I don't see as alignment indicative (given I use tone a lot myself). Townreads Hier (plan too much effort for scum) and rso (likes objections and analysis) after some clarification on WIFOM, then tries to connect you, demonstrating said WIFOM.
Still wants to policy lynch even though he thinks it's unlikely it's a scum tell - which the Shining picked up on and I do think is a bit off too, it's funny logic for town. Dislikes the banter between Trfel and jarjar saying jarjar's joking makes him look scummy (I think the opposite). Doesn't like one of Hier's thesaurus posts (nor did I). Posts up his tally system, saying jarjar, hier, silver and trfel are lynchpool, prefers trfel for most information. Asks if he should OMGUS Shining for his push on him. There's a funny question about town probability of Trfel's townread on Hier. Confirms it is his first game and settles for Hier as most probable lynch.
Ugh.
There's aspects of that logic that I don't like for town (wanting to policy lynch while recognising unlikely to be scum, disliking the banter, wanting to lynch Trfel for most info despite not finding him the most scummy for example), but I can also see that as coming from newbie town, particularly newbie town who seems to be trying to feel their way on their own without relying too much on their coaching support.
Bits look scummy but there might be a genuine reason for that in his new player status.
I appreciate that's not much help.
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On February 17 2015 02:33 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 02:30 Trfel wrote:On February 17 2015 02:26 rsoultin wrote:
Meh -_- Truffle
Why you're fighting this Hier lynch so much, yet voting for him anyway and setting up for an AFK vote...it is not giving me the warm town fuzzies. I'm not going to afk vote. Please. I take full responsibility for my vote. I'm just letting you know that you may not have my support for a vote switch late in the day. I'm showing resistance for the Hier lynch for several reasons. The first being that there isn't many other people fighting it, and the lynch isn't as solid as I would like. The second is that if people have other ideas, I would really, really, like to hear them, and not have the lynch sealed up. The third is that if Hier does come back, if my "frustrated town" guess is correct, having some support would make him MUCH more likely to try and defend himself. If you believe I'm town this game, trust that I will definitely do my best to try to bring the towniness out of Hier before lynching him. I wanted you to start that counterwagon, though, since you seem so certain that Hier is not the lynch. You're not starting it. This is concerning. But apparently you have to go, so I'll just...lol, figure it out from here as best I can xP
I share this concern as well; and would like Trfel to build up a counter-case against someone else.
Anyone who's >51% but <77% to be town, is still better than an rng lynch, and I don't think anyone here is bad enough that we could get an easy scumread day 1, so we'll have a high mislynch chance regardless.
I do wonder what information we gain from a Hier lynch. I feel that if it's a mislynch, we gain very little information to work with, though if it's a right lynch, hmmm. I should go back and figure out what we might conclude in each of the cases for outcomes on a Hier lynch.
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The lynching for information thing particularly caught my attention. Most of the rest of that I find pretty insignificant, as it could easily come from either alignment.
Zlefin, do you mind explaining to me what sort of information you think you'd gain from lynching Trfel?
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Do you guys want me to respond to any of that Tere? or is it your own conversation that you'd like to stick to?
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EPT
