EPTWhile I'm inclined to policy lynch for inactivity, such a degree of inactivity in a newbie game with coaches (where they'd be warned of the risks of inactivity), seems like it'd more be a sign of someone not actually trying or being busy IRL than of being scum.
Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 9
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
While I'm inclined to policy lynch for inactivity, such a degree of inactivity in a newbie game with coaches (where they'd be warned of the risks of inactivity), seems like it'd more be a sign of someone not actually trying or being busy IRL than of being scum. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Also, Trfel, same thought on JJB's post. JJB, can you show me how you arrived at the 47% number? I'm not as good at math but I can at least verify that it's valid when I see it in front of me.  Not as quick to read Hiel...hie...whatever his name is lol >< as town, though. Throwing things into a random number generator and drawing an (MSpaint?) graphic isn't exactly a ton of work, and he's done nothing to show that he cares about finding scum. Maybe when he comes back he'll change my mind. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
My spreadsheet doesn't take into account people's reads though. Say rsoultin (almost always townread by everyone in the game every game) is on the chop block, I'm pretty sure someone would use their switch on her. If she's mafia, for obvious reasons. If she's town, then because everyone thinks she's town and knows that it is a mistake. That goes right back to mafia have perfect information over town not having it. If we used the bridge strategy, our only real hope would be to: 1. figure out how mafia would NK based on that strategy, which looks very similar to WIFOM. 2. Heavily analyze ANY switch that is made. It should mean a lot for someone to use their 1 free pass to make the switch. Which also might seem a little WIFOMy. I'm not sure how to judge people based on their reactions to the system. I was the only one that liked it and backtracked later through rsoultin and excel. I tried to think of something similar to this for my last game for similar reasons to what Hier pointed out. Everyone else didn't like it. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 16 2015 03:11 rsoultin wrote: I'll poke silverarte. Also, Trfel, same thought on JJB's post. JJB, can you show me how you arrived at the 47% number? I'm not as good at math but I can at least verify that it's valid when I see it in front of me. Not as quick to read Hiel...hie...whatever his name is lol >< as town, though. Throwing things into a random number generator and drawing an (MSpaint?) graphic isn't exactly a ton of work, and he's done nothing to show that he cares about finding scum. Maybe when he comes back he'll change my mind. Ya I messed up lolz I got to 33% by multiplying 7/9 (chance of town being rng'd) by 5/7 (same thing on day 2) by 3/5 (same thing on day 3). That would be the chance that 3 towns rng died with nightkills. I didn't take blue roles into account, which could change things in towns favor I would assume. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On February 16 2015 03:14 jarjarbinks wrote: Ya I went back through it, and it definitely has mafia in favor (I was wrong on the 47%, its 33% mafia doesn't need to make a switch and still wins without losing a mafia member) If I was mafia, I would definitely roll the dice on any automated lynch strategy. My spreadsheet doesn't take into account people's reads though. Say rsoultin (almost always townread by everyone in the game every game) is on the chop block, I'm pretty sure someone would use their switch on her. If she's mafia, for obvious reasons. If she's town, then because everyone thinks she's town and knows that it is a mistake. That goes right back to mafia have perfect information over town not having it. If we used the bridge strategy, our only real hope would be to: 1. figure out how mafia would NK based on that strategy, which looks very similar to WIFOM. 2. Heavily analyze ANY switch that is made. It should mean a lot for someone to use their 1 free pass to make the switch. Which also might seem a little WIFOMy. I'm not sure how to judge people based on their reactions to the system. I was the only one that liked it and backtracked later through rsoultin and excel. I tried to think of something similar to this for my last game for similar reasons to what Hier pointed out. Everyone else didn't like it. Uhoh, JJB. Red flag. I don't remember any such scheme that you brought forward last game? What are you referring to? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Not Voting (9): Trfel, ElyAs, jarjarbinks, The Shining, Mimeux, zlefin, Hier, Silverarte, rsoultin Currently, no one is set to be expelled from South Park Elementary. Day 1 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone. Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On February 16 2015 03:20 jarjarbinks wrote: No lynch policy day 1. remember I almost got killed for it? Ah, yes, that was a bad suggestion lol. Okay, I retract the red flag. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Normal mafia games involve using reads to find the scum. When using RNG lynch, you randomly choose a player to push, and use the reactions to help form reads and find the scum. When using the Bridges method, you are doomed to fail unless you use the reads (largely based on the actions people take for switches) to find the scum. The downside with the Bridges method is that the material that players have to work with is extremely limited, which means that at best it results in a normal mafia game with less content. I will be out for the afternoon. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On February 16 2015 03:44 zlefin wrote: I'd say the vote count makes plenty of sense, unless people are pushing an RNG lynch, it's a bit early to have votes. We haven't even heard from all the players yet, so it's rather hard to have a vote, especially when there's so much time left. Okay, I'll take the plunge ^^ ##vote: Hier Tell me why I'm wrong, or get onboard. That goes for everyone lol. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
The voting thread is here. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/478162-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi-voting-thread | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Shh, HtS, that could have been on purpose you know xP | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
RSo feels like townRSo. She's in like every game I've played recently, here and elsewhere, and I'm not picking up anything out of the norm. Direct questions and responses, scumhunting, engaging. However, see above for why I think you're wrong about Hier. Does scum, especially in a newbie game, have the balls to suggest something like that? I could see it being misguided town. | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
I first thought you posted that to induce discussion with ambiguous content. But actually that info was easily checked on your game history. So my current opinion is : you spoke the truth because hiding it would be suspicious. So, as I said, I didn't like the post, but I still like the overall picture of your posting and I'd color that post more null than ambiguous now. | ||
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Hier
2391 Posts
Purely numerically completely off the wall random lynches win out over the Bridges method by a little over 2 percentage points at the second lynch; it is negligible. In both cases mafia’s odds of escaping 2 lynches in a row are a little better than a coin flip. Better blind mathematical odds are not, however, what I’m advocating. I am selling a platform, a canvas, through which reads can be made. You say people will be content with the predetermined 2nd lynch and activity will drop – I say you’re wrong. As long as there are 2 sides that want to win arguments will always arise, except in this case they will be of a different nature: justification of substitution, rather than a timed mandatory witch hunt. Bandwagons will certainly not be eliminated, but through this method they will demand sturdier foundations, which eliminates chaos. Let’s spice things up. rsoultin: In 3 separate posts you have described your reads to be null towards people that have posted, and despite you not liking the Bridges method, which is fine, said that it is something a town player may suggest thinking it’s good. Later, after someone mentioned they weren't a fan of my model, you've gone to suggest that I've done nothing to show that I care about finding scum, all the while you proclaim your reads are null and just ask what other players’ reads are. That is the way mafia players probe the scene to start a bandwagon. Why else, out of the blue, without any further analysis, would you vote me to be lynched with the phrase “Tell me why I’m wrong, or get onboard.”? No, it is your job to tell everyone the reasons behind your vote, not to tell everyone to get onboard. I vote rsoultin. I know who your follower is. Should you turn green the town will have a sure scum locked. Should you turn red, someone will bail me out before the 2nd lynch. | ||
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Mimeux
United States3 Posts
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
Ely, what in my last post before yours made you think I was hinting at posting more? This post for clarification: On February 15 2015 10:30 The Shining wrote: Oh I remember, former teammate. And you led the openings again here. Confidently. Bah. Its Valentines Day here in the states on a Saturday night. I don't expect posts to pick up until later tonight and tomorrow. Obviously I did plan on posting more but this post was explaining expected INactivity, not activity. I like that you have given at least basic explanations for your early reads but I'd like to see more of you. What do you think of RSo's Hier push? | ||
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