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Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 81
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
You don't have to respond. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 24 2015 10:07 zlefin wrote: I'm just going to repost this here. This seems to take a lot of the force out of the night kill analysis theory.I was considering that you and shining might have (by thinking the same idea) each placed a different person as the likely lynch, and use the night kill to see which one of you was killed. I didn't mention it as it would have messed up such a plan. NK analysis is still wifom, but we can try to make something out of it, though the simplest explanation still looks to be best here. Zlefin, if you were scum, you probably shouldn't have said this. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
Not that that's actually the proper contrapositive. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
jarjarbinks (from The Shining's case) Jarjarbinks town reading The Shining so emphatically does seem a bit suspicious. But it's not as bad as The Shining makes it out to be. Jarjarbinks did show a changing stance on Silverarte that I find suspicious. I still think that jarjarbinks' vote switch to save me looked towny, but I suppose it could also be a scum deciding to do a sub-optimal play. This is consistent with The Shining saying that jarjarbinks was a scum scrambling as one of his partners was being voted. The timing of this vote switch, right after Tere and I produced cases on Silverarte, does seem suspicious. I feel that these three points are potentially the strongest points against jarjarbinks. Most of everything else seems minor, or easily explainable, or I can't understand exactly what The Shining is getting at (this happens sometimes.... sorry The Shining, I tried, really). zlefin I still don't like his changing stance on Silverarte, either. He says that he didn't town read Silverarte, but this seems to say otherwise. This read is null at lowest, and the words he says seem to imply that the read should be higher. The early suspicion of inactives including Silverarte seems strange. He didn't think that I was ever in danger of being lynched, explaining why he continued to vote Silverarate. And he voted for Silverarte after seeing that everyone was scumreading her. Zlefin was one of the group (that included me) who voted Hier but said they weren't that happy with the lynch. But zlefin didn't seem at all concerned about finding counterwagons. He said that Hier was better than an RNG lynch and that seemed to be good enough for him. Zlefin asked people what he should do. I really don't see why a townie would do this here. There are better resources to use than asking people in the thread, and zlefin already said that he read mafia guides. It seems that he is trying to respond to suspicion without actually responding to it. Then of course, is zlefin's apparent desire to make himself look good. This happens throughout his filter. Asking if he should scumread The Shining is one example of this. Zlefin said that he often read through filters and didn't have any thoughts, but he also kept rereading people until he had a stance on everyone. It looks bad to not have a stance on someone, and zlefin seems to be trying to avoid that, despite apparently having trouble reading some people earlier in the game. His decision to vote for Silverarte is largely based on the fact that Silverarte was commonly scumread, so he is still trying to vote where everyone else does to make himself look good. And of course, here he confidently chooses his lynch target while also spreading the blame to everyone if the lynch goes wrong. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
I don't see how you can possibly call that a town read. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2015 05:02 zlefin wrote: That looks like a favorable read to me.Looking through SilverArte's filter, I have a better feel about it; it feels good, but I'm not sure if that's a town sense I'm getting, or just general friendliness, I think it might just be the friendliness, because when I think of specific issues of concern I had with elyas (low overall quantity, lack of originality) it looks like those are still present, though definitely not to the same problematic degree as Elyas's filter. Silver's definitely feel more helpful, and somewhat contentful. I'd also like to hear other's reactions to this assessment. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
"but I'm not sure if that's a town sense I'm getting, or just general friendliness, I think it might just be the friendliness, because when I think of specific issues of concern I had with elyas (low overall quantity, lack of originality) it looks like those are still present, though definitely not to the same problematic degree as Elyas's filter." which is a pretty clear note that it has similar issues that elyas's had; and asks whether the town impression is a result of actual towniness, or is a misread, since the objective characteristics do not support the town part. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 25 2015 03:52 zlefin wrote: It feels like a terrible mixed read. Really noncommittal, you could use it to later go either way on Silverarte.More favorable than before, yes; but note "but I'm not sure if that's a town sense I'm getting, or just general friendliness, I think it might just be the friendliness, because when I think of specific issues of concern I had with elyas (low overall quantity, lack of originality) it looks like those are still present, though definitely not to the same problematic degree as Elyas's filter." which is a pretty clear note that it has similar issues that elyas's had; and asks whether the town impression is a result of actual towniness, or is a misread, since the objective characteristics do not support the town part. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I hope I'm right. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Thanks! | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
D1: Opening was what openings are, mostly garbage lol He started scumhunting and his EBWOPing seemed actually relatively towny to me considering his past games (more behavior thing I saw in our first game that he also got scummed on like you did to him D1). D2: He didn't seem too active until Tere pissed him off. Started playing. I thought most of his posts seemed towny. D3: In hindsight, I think his desire to desperately find a counterwagon was good for town. I don't exactly like how he went on me, and I was super pissed about how he was tonereading some of my posts considering that he's been going through my filters for at least 2 games (not including his mafia game), but I didn't really waver on switching my vote at all. I remember having 4 reasons why he was scumming me, and I overall figured he was either trying to one up your case on Tere or seriously wanted to lynch me. It made much more sense to wait to throw that case on my in lylo (assuming the Tere/Palmer lynch still went through) if he was actually scum. Voting analysis had him as the most towny of us four. I'm not going to do a read analysis on him, they take ten years lol | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
The moment probably wasn't too brief honestly. His case was pretty long and I was super pissed about some parts of it. Some parts of were decent, but all the tonereads were like he was looking at a completely new person. I would think he would know me better than that since we've played together about as long as I've played with anyone. While I knew that, you guys didn't know it as much. It seemed like he was using that to his advantage in order to get you guys to mislynch me or at least be suspicious of me instead. He could be town trying desperately to get you guys to look at me or he could be scum taking advantage to prepare for the next mislynch. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Can you go through each player and tell me where you stood on them? Like say I though Rso was top town D1 and Hier was top scum D1. I know Rso's been a super strong townread for you D1 but some of the others I'm not so sure on. I would've said the Shining, but it looks like you didn't really town him until D2ish. Was there anyone else you were relatively clear about? I don't think you ever really thought Tere was ever that towny, did you consider her the most scummy in this game? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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