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My read analysis is a little weird, in that I used numbers. I will try to explain what I did here so it makes the most sense to you.
I started with zlef. I went through his filter looking for a few things:
1. Times he scumread somebody
2. Times he townread somebody
3. Times he defended himself against somebody
4. Times he didn't specifically townread somebody but his post makes them "appear" more towny
5. Times he didn't specifically scumread somebody but his post makes them "appear" more scummy or draws suspicion or "bad attention" on them
6. He outrights tells people to lynch someone
7. He outright tells people that the person is 100% town (most of the time this should be just if someone claims)
I calculated all of these. Funny enough, I found exactly 100 times zlef did one of the above in this game. To compare how he reads strong townreads and strong scumreads as well as how he treated silver in comparison to others. I actually found some interesting things.
There are many flaws to this analysis:
1. It's new. Never used it before. I don't have histories to compare you to. I have to compare you to each other.
2. It's flawed. I'm a human and my interpretation of what happens in a post isn't 100% accurate. I'd like to think I can follow a thread, but I can make mistakes.
3. This is hard to justify. Without showing you my spreadsheet its hard for me to justify how I got my numbers. I'm hoping that something I note makes you go back, check, and say hey maybe he's on to something.
4. You have to trust me that I am being honest. Hard to do if you are the other town and there is a very high likelihood you say you don't if you are mafia.
5. Everyone might look bad in this. My argument against this is I'm not expecting you to look good. Just better than the other guy if you are the actual town.
If you want my initial opinion? Here it is. I think zlef is mafia. Is that because I filter dived him all night? Possibly. I don't think its fair to zlef for me to make an initial conclusion right now though because I haven't gone through trf's 5000 pages of filter. I think I'm going to be staying up late tomorrow xD
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I have reasons for doing this now. Feel free to ask. I don't think it's too relevant, but if you think it is then I will explain. Hurts my pride a little but I will explain lol
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Well, what are the reasons for this conclusion?
You stated your method, you stated potential flaws, you stated your conclusion. I am wondering how the results of your method led you to your conclusion? 
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And I don't care what you are doing or why you are doing it (same goes for zlefin). Palmar makes sense about that one. What I do care is what conclusions you reached, and if I think they are the correct conclusions.
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I haven't done you yet lol
Warnings before I post my notes:
1. I generally don't write much. My writing on here is actually pretty good in my opinion. I often throw lols everywhere and stuff. If I made a writing error I'M SORRY lol
2. I talk about townread/scumreading proportions. It is natural I would think for most people to scum others over town them. I guess it depends on personality (another thing you can throw at me for this analysis), but you would think you would be more suspicious of others considering there's more people to be suspicious of. Zlef's avg was 2.4 meaning that he scummed people 2.4 times for every time he towned someone.
3. I consider making a post that draws suspicion/puts them in a bad light as scumming. Same with saying something like "i don't see how that is a scumteam" with the person on it for towning. Saying THIS GUY SHOULD BE LYNCHED is in a different category.
4. Ask me questions about something you don't understand. You see into my thinking and better understand my case.
5. It isn't fair to be like Zlef is super bad because of my case yet. Trf could look bad due to this analysis too, I don't know yet. I'm hoping I have a solid conclusion tomorrow.
Honestly guys I think this could be golden, for this game and for my games in the future. I doubt anyone else will but I do lolz
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Hm.... I'm skeptical. To start, I've always used the philosophy that people are town until they prove otherwise, while most people use the philosophy that most people are suspect until proved otherwise. I mean, I obviously don't accept people as town right away, but I give them the benefit of the doubt until they do something to not deserve it any more, if that makes sense?
I'm interested to see what you come up with, but my hypothesis is that it is too prone to errors.
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Zlef Notes
General Play: Tends to scumread 2.4 times more than townread and 1.6 times more than he defends himself. Told people or referred people to Lynching about 1.5-1.6 times per voting phase. Including defending himself against others, he has a total of 100 reads on people.
People: Top people that he made reads on (proportionally per phase) were Hier, then silver, Tere and Rso. People he made the least reads (per phase mind you) the least were Ely and Shining. He has equal reads on both me and Trf, which I found interesting. I also found it interesting that the two least were Ely and Shining considering that Ely was his top scumread until the claim on D2 and Shining he called the most towny of us all.
Things that bothered me:
1. He proportionally towned/scummed Rso and Hier. One whom (at least I considered) his top townread D1/N1 and the other guy he found the most likely to be scum D1. He equally towned/scummed them (shows a 1.0 ratio which is the lowest in my analysis)
2. On the opposite end of the spectrum, he does the exact same thing with Shining/Trf. Just recently, he considered Trf and Shining as his most towny and most scummy guy. Proportionally, he scummed them 4-4.5 times more than towned them.
3. Silver is right in the middle of the spectrum. (low is 1 and high is 4.5). If you were wondering her spot was 2.33. This is similar to another number. 2.4 in my first sentence. His average amount of times he scumreads compared to townreads. This bothers me because silver is the only confirmed scum and you could make the argument that Zlef’s playstyle in this game has been a “cover” for silver. He did say he wanted to lynch Silver a lot. People focus on that especially during bus time (if zlef is actually mafia), but his other scumreads tell an entirely different tale.
4. Elyas was his top scumread D2 yet he made two scumreads on the guy. Ely didn’t post a lot but let’s put this in perspective. He scumread silver 7 times and said he wanted to lynch her 3 times. For the more scummier of the two in his mind (before Ely doc claimed of course) he wanted to lynch him once and scumread him 3 times. I’m pretty sure both of their filters are similar in length.
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On February 24 2015 12:56 Trfel wrote:
Hm.... I'm skeptical. To start, I've always used the philosophy that people are town until they prove otherwise, while most people use the philosophy that most people are suspect until proved otherwise. I mean, I obviously don't accept people as town right away, but I give them the benefit of the doubt until they do something to not deserve it any more, if that makes sense?
I'm interested to see what you come up with, but my hypothesis is that it is too prone to errors.
This is fair lol I don't know how well it will work, and I think it will work better when I compare you in this game to you in the next one. I'm hoping it works here.
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That point #4. That's actually a really good point.
The rest of it, I'm not sure how useful it is, and I'm not entirely sure of everything you are trying to say with point 3, but point 4 is very obvious and clear.*
I'm not going to explain what the * means at this time, so don't ask.
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zlefin
We start knowing that zlefin's play is extremely cautious. I feel that his play generally fits what would be expected from an extremely cautious scum.
When I read this post at this time, it almost makes me wonder if he is being too suspicious to be town. I'm not sure that a town player in his first game would even consider the possibility of two mafia working together to be town read this early in the game. Any thoughts on this?
This post seems to be showing some suspicion to inactivity, which coincidentally includes mafia Silverarte. Note that he says that inactivity seems weird, but is probably not a sign of being scum. This could be a mafia being sure to show some suspicion of a scum buddy, but also being sure not to go too far with it.
This post is more of what I referenced in the first post I linked. I don't think it means anything, but I'm still interested in thoughts.
I don't know what to make of zlefin's original idea to lynch me for information. It's certainly unique, and I am not sure that scum would naturally think of doing this. That said, it has a good mafia motivation of doing something unique and it can potentially be used as a small excuse to not have better reads.
It still seems strange that zlefin asks people what he should do. It feels as if he is trying to make sure that his actions are considered correct by everyone else.
If zlefin agreed with my reasons that Hier could be town, why is he not considering finding a scum lynch instead? This seems strange.
Zlefin gave Silverarte -1 in his table. This seems a bit suspicious, like he is making sure not to give too much town credit to his scum buddy. It's perfectly fine to leave inactives at null.
I don't know what to think about posts like this. Thoughts? (the last one on the page)
This feels a bit too self-conscious.
I still think that this read on Silverarte is strange, and he seems to provide an incorrect judgement of Silverarte's filter while still leaving a lot of room for interpretation. He leaves a probe for other people's thoughts here, as if he wants to see if he is right. He did not do so for the above post linked about ElyAs.
By the time that zlefin made this post, The Shining's filter didn't feel that great. The Shining didn't provide many original reads in this time frame. Zlefin also seems committed to making a read on everyone, which seems odd.
This looks like zlefin trying to see if he is too easily connected with Silverarte. And the last sentence doesn't need to be added by a town!zlefin here.
Zlefin moved Silverarte from weak town to scum here. Then zlefin probed everyone for scumreads, and as a result, decided to vote for Silverarte. At this point, most everyone was scumreading Silverarte, so for a cautious zlefin, going for the bus here is the safe play and it is justified. Right before this, he probed the entire thread for reads, and he didn't seem to use those reads for anything other than this vote. Zlefin didn't seem to think that I was actually in danger of being lynched, and that is why he stuck to the bus.
Zlefin "has to recommend" voting for Silverarte over me. Has to? Bad wording for town!zlefin.
This post shows just far zlefin's stance on Silverarte is falling. When he gave her a favorable read earlier.
This post suggests that zlefin hasn't been paying attention to flips before this one, didn't realize that vanilla townie was a role, or both. Had zlefin received a vanilla townie role PM, that might have made him more likely to realize that vanilla townie is in fact a role.
This wording makes it seem that not only is zlefin going ahead with a pre-day lynch, he is refusing to consider alternatives and is removing himself from blame should it go wrong.
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Any thoughts would be much appreciated.
I'm intentionally leaving my conclusion separate from the analysis itself. Zlefin has been playing extremely cautiously, generally keeping with town sentiment and trying to stay in public favor. That said, his play still has several things that could be seen as suspicious (widely varying in strength, haha). Many of the points I mentioned above are not very strong. But zlefin doesn't seem to be a bad lynch for the strong points, what jarjarbinks brought up, and the extreme caution his filter showed.
I'm going to filter dive jarjarbinks now, and then read The Shining's case on him.
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I tried to read through this, but I'm going to have to come back tomorrow for a reread. There's so many quotes lol I'll try to comment on this in the morning if I have time and if not in the afternoon.
#3 was my favorite point on my case lol If I have time after my case on you I will try to help you understand what I'm saying I probably wasn't clear enough in my analysis.
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On February 24 2015 13:52 jarjarbinks wrote:
I tried to read through this, but I'm going to have to come back tomorrow for a reread. There's so many quotes lol I'll try to comment on this in the morning if I have time and if not in the afternoon.
#3 was my favorite point on my case lol If I have time after my case on you I will try to help you understand what I'm saying I probably wasn't clear enough in my analysis. Very well, good night. You don't need to go point by point, just general comments or important comments are fine. I'm mostly interested in overall conclusion.
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jarjarbinks
This post seems a bit off. "Let me go reread and see if I can pick up on something". Hm.
Then there's jarjarbinks deciding to go his own way with the Day 1 vote. I really don't know what to make of this. At first it seems towny, but it could also be trying to rid himself of the Hier mislynch.
Jarjarbinks accusing zlefin here seems a bit weak. I demonstrated that it is possible to link zlefin's points to his reads. He townread ElyAs earlier, the opinion change seems suspect here. But this is a plausible explanation for someone who focuses heavily on vote counts.
This read feels poor to me for reasons I've already explained.
Here, jarjarbinks states that Silverarte is most lynchable. This seems to take some of the force out of the jarjarbinks bus theory.
Then of course, his vote switch to Silverarte. I still think that this is a townie thing to do, even with the break. He already voted for me after scumreading Silverarte, at that point it makes no sense to switch back and bus.
This post seems a bit off. Why would he be posting his 2nd game now if we were wondering why he only grabbed his first? Seems self conscious.
That's what I got. I need to look through The Shining's case still, but I will put that off to tomorrow. On a side note, I am getting sleepy so I didn't mention minor points in this analysis, while I included a bunch of minor/null points in my analysis of zlefin's play (looking for feedback). Don't be deceived by the case size.
I am still leaning towards zlefin being mafia.
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I wish you'd numbered your points trfel, there's a lot of them, and it's hard to respond to such a long post clearly without a way to link up what I'm responding to.
Also, you keep saying the nonsense that I had silver as a cautious townread, dude, seriously, wtf? I already explained that twice, and the plain wording of the actual thing you quoted does not put silver as a townread, nor does my point system ever point to silver as town.
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Reposting this so I can add numbers to respond to it properly
On February 24 2015 13:21 Trfel wrote:zlefin1. We start knowing that zlefin's play is extremely cautious. I feel that his play generally fits what would be expected from an extremely cautious scum. 2. When I read this post at this time, it almost makes me wonder if he is being too suspicious to be town. I'm not sure that a town player in his first game would even consider the possibility of two mafia working together to be town read this early in the game. Any thoughts on this? 3. This post seems to be showing some suspicion to inactivity, which coincidentally includes mafia Silverarte. Note that he says that inactivity seems weird, but is probably not a sign of being scum. This could be a mafia being sure to show some suspicion of a scum buddy, but also being sure not to go too far with it. 4. This post is more of what I referenced in the first post I linked. I don't think it means anything, but I'm still interested in thoughts. 5. I don't know what to make of zlefin's original idea to lynch me for information. It's certainly unique, and I am not sure that scum would naturally think of doing this. That said, it has a good mafia motivation of doing something unique and it can potentially be used as a small excuse to not have better reads. 6. It still seems strange that zlefin asks people what he should do. It feels as if he is trying to make sure that his actions are considered correct by everyone else. 7. If zlefin agreed with my reasons that Hier could be town, why is he not considering finding a scum lynch instead? This seems strange. 8. Zlefin gave Silverarte -1 in his table. This seems a bit suspicious, like he is making sure not to give too much town credit to his scum buddy. It's perfectly fine to leave inactives at null. 9. I don't know what to think about posts like this. Thoughts? (the last one on the page) 10. This feels a bit too self-conscious. 11. I still think that this read on Silverarte is strange, and he seems to provide an incorrect judgement of Silverarte's filter while still leaving a lot of room for interpretation. He leaves a probe for other people's thoughts here, as if he wants to see if he is right. He did not do so for the above post linked about ElyAs. 12. By the time that zlefin made this post, The Shining's filter didn't feel that great. The Shining didn't provide many original reads in this time frame. Zlefin also seems committed to making a read on everyone, which seems odd. 13. This looks like zlefin trying to see if he is too easily connected with Silverarte. And the last sentence doesn't need to be added by a town!zlefin here. 14. Zlefin moved Silverarte from weak town to scum here. Then zlefin probed everyone for scumreads, and as a result, decided to vote for Silverarte. At this point, most everyone was scumreading Silverarte, so for a cautious zlefin, going for the bus here is the safe play and it is justified. Right before this, he probed the entire thread for reads, and he didn't seem to use those reads for anything other than this vote. Zlefin didn't seem to think that I was actually in danger of being lynched, and that is why he stuck to the bus. 15. Zlefin "has to recommend" voting for Silverarte over me. Has to? Bad wording for town!zlefin. 16. This post shows just far zlefin's stance on Silverarte is falling. When he gave her a favorable read earlier. 17. This post suggests that zlefin hasn't been paying attention to flips before this one, didn't realize that vanilla townie was a role, or both. Had zlefin received a vanilla townie role PM, that might have made him more likely to realize that vanilla townie is in fact a role. 18. This wording makes it seem that not only is zlefin going ahead with a pre-day lynch, he is refusing to consider alternatives and is removing himself from blame should it go wrong.
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prenote: I'm feeling sarcastic at the moment
1. I'm extremely cautious in general.
2. WIFOM analysis directly implies the possibility of such things. I read up on the game and read some of the manuals and guides before playing.
3. or it could just be valid and true on its face, which it is.
6. god forbid a new player ask for opinions on what to do!
8. it's also well-noted in the guides that inactivity can be a sign of mafia.
12. what's odd about trying to get a read on everyone in the game? that's kinda the point.
13. again, on its face a reasonable question. and boohoo a reduntant sentence.
14. already answered, use reading comprehension.
15. that's mighty thin; since it's just me talking like myself (sometimes I talk a bit formal).
17. I didn't quite understand the mafia rules, I thought it just said whether people were town/mafia, not what role they got, when they were killed. do you get all the rules of a game right the first time you play it?
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now I've reread Trfel's filter (partially, too dang long to read the whole thing, but read the more important stuff).
so, with both filters in mind:
Conclusion 1: Trfel's filter looks a lot better than JJBs filter objectively. lots of scumhunting, right emotions, good analysis
Conclusion 2: Trfel is a much better player than myself or JJB by a significant margin. (does better job of defending people than they themselves do, among other things)
I've said before Trfel is either town, or a well-played scum, others (IIRC tere at least, probably more people) have remarked on this as well.
I'm not sure how to adjust for that. i.e.: filter strength / player strength for each of them.
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I guess I'll vote jjb. still feeling unsure, and will continue pondering.
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On February 24 2015 22:46 zlefin wrote:
I've said before Trfel is either town, or a well-played scum, others (IIRC tere at least, probably more people) have remarked on this as well. I thought I was a well played town...........
I'll reread everything you said in a bit. I can respond if you would like, but otherwise I wasn't planning to.
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EPT
