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On February 23 2015 20:21 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2015 14:54 Trfel wrote:On February 19 2015 05:06 zlefin wrote:
I believe that's a good analysis, and would like to hear Silver's rebuttal. Also, if you think it's silver, any idea on who they're working with?
I'm starting to try to think on pairwise analysis to see who looks too in sync. This quote looks really weird with a flipped Silverarte..... On February 20 2015 06:11 zlefin wrote:
Like I say, I could see a Trfel/Silver team as a possibility, as I looked over how things were done.
I maintain silver is a great target right now.
I'm suspicious of Tere as well, more suspicious than I am of trfel. Look at these sentences (all from the same quote, stand alone, I just removed the stuff in between. If Silverarte flips, he is setting himself up for pushing Trfel, taking credit for voting scum. And if Trfel flips town, he's setting himself up to push Tere in response. This post looks badJust a few random thoughts from zlefin's filter. I really think that the scum is zlefin, not jarjarbinks. Jarjarbinks has seemed more like town. There is a fair associative case between zlefin and Silverarte as well (notably how hard zlefin tried to avoid having Silverarte drag him down). Look at how zlefin's read on Silverarte changed. First he was suspicious of her for being inactive, then he gave her a cautious town read (which I feel is unwarranted), and then when suspicion picked up on Silverarte, he switched back to scum reading her. when did I give silver a cautious town read? I'm asking because I don't remember doing that; and my point system shows no town points for silver. On February 18 2015 05:02 zlefin wrote:
Looking through SilverArte's filter, I have a better feel about it; it feels good, but I'm not sure if that's a town sense I'm getting, or just general friendliness, I think it might just be the friendliness, because when I think of specific issues of concern I had with elyas (low overall quantity, lack of originality) it looks like those are still present, though definitely not to the same problematic degree as Elyas's filter.
Silver's definitely feel more helpful, and somewhat contentful. I'd also like to hear other's reactions to this assessment. Here you go.
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I'm not sure I call this a townread; it's a town-favorable impression, which was reducing the prior scum-impression.
It depends whether by townread you mean thinking someone is town, or thinking something pushes someone closer to being town. If the latter, yes; if the former, not really, it looks too neutral for that.
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On February 24 2015 02:02 zlefin wrote:
I'm not sure I call this a townread; it's a town-favorable impression, which was reducing the prior scum-impression.
It depends whether by townread you mean thinking someone is town, or thinking something pushes someone closer to being town. If the latter, yes; if the former, not really, it looks too neutral for that. I don't like how you are trying to justify previous actions by saying why they don't look scummy instead of why they aren't scummy. It's a minor wording thing, but you seem to be defending myself by "look, I didn't mess up" instead of "no, I'm town".
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Noted that you feel that way.
I tend to be precise in my word usage, and if people misread things because they aren't being careful about the words used, it tends to irk me. Also, correcting people misreading things is good.
If you want to argue about whether an action is scummy or not, you need to know what the actual action is; if you're misreading the action itself, arguing about how the action appears seems pointless.
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Why they aren't scummy? They aren't scummy because they aren't; it's not like I said silver was town, I said he wasn't as scum as previously assessed, though still with reservations, which were pointed out very clearly.
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Hey zlef.
Did you give up on your table? You stopped adding points somewhere around the end of D2 and haven't really added or subtracted points since then. Did you decide its not worth it? Did you decide %'s are a better way to go?
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I think it was a useful tool for early on, to help organize my thoughts, but it's not necessary anymore as there's few enough people to track it in my head fine.
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It's also hard sometimes to figure whether to adjust by a point or not, and that wasn't productive time.
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I'm rushed today, off of work and had a bunch of errands to run this morning and more to run in a few. I did read through Zlef's filter last night but I didn't find the time, nor even the need to write up a full case. Provided I live through the night, I would definitely be willing to do so.
Zlefin really picked up on his post count and effort tonight right before lylo, huh? That is a bit suspect. His filter and play today, along with the points Trfel put out on him, actually look pretty bad.
There will be 48 more hours after EoN to decide on it but first impression, Zlefin does seem to be very cool and calculated. Trfel brought up a few interesting points and I think from them I can see where he sees some of JJB's posting as coming from somewhere genuine and townie, whereas Zlefin has a certain detachment and caution in everything he says and does.
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On February 24 2015 07:47 zlefin wrote:
I think it was a useful tool for early on, to help organize my thoughts, but it's not necessary anymore as there's few enough people to track it in my head fine.
I can see that. I find it a little suspicious that you end up stopping the table idea around the same time it appears that you are trying less, but your explanation does make sense.
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I don't think many of you guys find this helpful, but hopefully something in this will help you find the right guy:
Final Verdict: The most town looking to least based on votes is shown below. I admit I spinned zlefin's posts because I was least sure of them. In all honesty I would probably switch Trf and Zlef here but I'm trying to not be biased.
Shining- Switches his votes the most which shows flexibility. He often had his votes in the upper half of the voting pool which shows that he isn't waiting around to see the temperature of the thread.
Zlef- Probably the hardest to analyze vote wise. His first vote is for survival which is null, His D3 vote for Tere/Palmer makes him look good, but everyone had pretty much decided to lynch Tere/Palmar anyways. D2 vote was just early enough to be in the top half.
Trfel- D1 vote hurt him, while D2 voting helped him. D3 voting hurt him where I think it should have helped. I think he was more bent on Tere than the rest of us.
Me- outlier D1 which is bad. bottom half of the votes D2 which is bad. I also dinged myself for D3. Palmar voted for me and is dead (although with limited data Palmar's dead votes don't bear much weight)
Reads analysis to come after N3. I'm going to guess I won't be killed tonight because I'm prime for mislynch bait.
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Let me know if you have questions about that as I dive. I think this one will take much more time. I should be around for a while.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Kenny, Stan and Kyle engaged on a mission in the night to save Michael Jackson's son, Blanket, from Michael himself as he was subject to abuse. Blanket was 6 or 7 years old and often was dressed in costume. Stan and Kyle had dressed up Kenny similarly to Blanket and the three of them snuck into the mansion grounds to break Blanket loose. Michael Jackson used the alias "Jefferson" to attempt to shield himself from the citizens of South Park but several people knew better.
The trio used a ladder to climb into a window whilst Michael was away.
"Aren't I too big to be Blanket?" muttered Kenny.
"He's doesn't pay enough attention to his son to notice. We need you to distract him whilst we get Blanket somewhere safe."
The trio engaged and cleared the hallway and eventually came upon Blanket's bedroom.
"Blanket," hissed Stan. "Are you in here?"
"Hi guys!" chirped Blanket.
"Shush," replied Kyle. "We're going to take you away for a little while. Get you somewhere safe."
"Wow!" he exclaimed. "You are? Wow, thank you, thank you, thank you! I've been so miserable!"
"Alright Kenny," replied Stan, "get in Blanket's bed and brace yourself."
"You guys owe me for this," replied Kenny.
"Dude, whatever," muttered Stan. "For once you finally get to do something."
THOMP. THOMP. THOMP.
"Oh shit, dude," muttered Stan, "everyone hide."
Blanket, Stan and Kyle ran into a corner behind a bookcase; Kenny ducked under the covers.
"OH BLANKET, MY BLANKET!" screamed Michael Jackson in sudden joy as he sang Blanket's name. "It's TIME TO PLAY!!!!"
Michael grabbed the incognito Kenny by the waist and started hoisting him left and right; clearly under the influence, he was oblivious to how much heavier Kenny weighed.
"MY BLANKET!" he exclaimed. "Weeeeeeee, he can fly, he can fly!"
"Ahhhhhhhhh!" screamed Kenny. "Ahhhhhhh stop!"
Michael was so heavily medicated that on his next throw, he put excessive force and wound up fatally smashing Kenny's head into the ceiling, blood pouring down his corpse as it pierced the ceiling.
Kyle, Stan and Blanket were aghast.
"OMG he killed Kenny!" yelled Stan.
"You bastard!" screamed Kyle.
"Blanket?" Michael Jackson turned around.
"RUNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!" Stan screamed as the trio bolted down the hallway and out the window they broke in.
The Shining, as Kenny McCormick (Vanilla Townie) was killed by Michael Jackson.
Day 4 is underway.
You have 48 hours to determine the next lynch.
Voting is mandatory and all votes should be made in the voting thread in order for them to count.
Day 4 ends on Thursday, Feb 26 12:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) in . Good luck!
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Well, the towniest player was killed, no surprise there.
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I did what I could. GL TOWN.
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Shining: I'm really glad you kept playing despite really disliking replacements! I'm sure we'll get to play again sometime!
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Well, I've reread jarjar's filter, so I should reread Trfels, (or at least the important parts of it, it's big!). Then figure out who to vote on.
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Well. I wanted to die really badly. I'm really busy.
The Shining, extremely well played.
Remember earlier, when I said night kills are WIFOM? I kind of lied. My goal was to make mafia think that I would place the night kill completely on WIFOM, but if there was ever a time where night kill analysis would be useful, it would be right now.
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I was considering that you and shining might have (by thinking the same idea) each placed a different person as the likely lynch, and use the night kill to see which one of you was killed. I didn't mention it as it would have messed up such a plan.
NK analysis is still wifom, but we can try to make something out of it, though the simplest explanation still looks to be best here.
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I considered some kind of shenanigan to try to draw out the scum for day 4, but I can't think of anything which had a good chance of working, that didn't come with high risks of its own, since shenanigans of the sort necessary would look scummy.
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EPT
