EPTList the 4 of us from most likely to be scum to least likely to be scum, objectively, and be as honest as possible. I will view statements such as "I know I'm town so I'm least likely to be scum" as an unwillingness to discuss and cooperate and taking the easy way out. The more examples you can provide, the better.
Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 77
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
List the 4 of us from most likely to be scum to least likely to be scum, objectively, and be as honest as possible. I will view statements such as "I know I'm town so I'm least likely to be scum" as an unwillingness to discuss and cooperate and taking the easy way out. The more examples you can provide, the better. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I am most likely to be town because I have been leading town for most of the game. I have provided many reads, made cases, and always been open with my thoughts. The Shining is next most likely to be town because he has been constantly scumhunting, making controversial reads, thinking critically, and continued to scumhunt even when the lynch seemed settled on Tere/Palmar. Jarjarbinks is next most likely to be town because his play has shown indications of scumhunting and critical thinking. I have liked the honesty he has used in his posts. Zlefin is most likely to be scum because while his play was good in the early part of the game, it seems to have dropped off as of late. His play over the last day was a bit less than remarkable, though I can't scumread him for that alone, of course. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On February 23 2015 11:29 Trfel wrote: Here's where we stand. I am town. I am very confident that The Shining is town, and I think that assuming I die tonight, I will need to be willing to accept losing to mafia!The Shining (The Shining, if you are mafia, your play has been truly inspired). If I don't die tonight, maybe I can find some time to reread him, but I will play assuming that I die tonight. Fortunately, we will have at least one very likely town alive for LYLO, so our chances of RNG lynching scum are about 50%. I think that jarjarbinks is town and that zlefin is scum. The Shining thinks that zlefin is town and jarjarbinks is scum. This is the perfect opportunity for mafia night kill WIFOM, and therefore at least The Shining and I (Trfel) need to take into full consideration the reads of the dead player. And to be honest, if we can set this lynch before the end of the night, I don't think that's bad. I don't think we will be able to, as we don't have enough time, but that would be ideal to me. I'm going to go reread the entire thread. I don't know if I am going to case zlefin. While it would be good to case both zlefin and jarjarbinks and see what is stronger, I don't think I have the luxury of that. I would prefer to figure out conclusively which of them is scum, and then they actually won't even need to be cased. The likely scenario is that one of me (Trfel) or The Shining dies. Zlefin and jarjarbinks will probably vote for each other, leaving whichever of me and The Shining is alive to choose the lynch, so really a case isn't entirely necessary. Just saw this post. Heh. I honestly feel flattered that you really believe I could improve my scum game that immensely from one game to the next. I've also had these exact thoughts, BTW. If you're mafia, you pocketed the hell out of me N2 and I never looked back. That's how good your town read is. Also agree with the night kill wifom point. I think I actually mentioned that in a recent post. Its why I think I die tonight. NK = wifom. Me as NK after JJB case = ultimate wifom. JJB kills the person most set on lynching him? Or Zlefin kills the person most likely to mislynch JJB to frame JJB? I don't see it being very likely that we agree on a lynch tonight. I think I'll do that, too(reread the game from D1 up to now). And Trfel, it would be ideal to have you case both and compare but it is a bit extreme given time restraints and I already have a JJB case up. Feel free to compare mine instead after I do Zlefin. Also agree with that being the most likely lynch scenario. Hence my question last post. Their answers will be useful, to say the least. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
And again, I make cases if I want to push something. If I don't see a need to push something, I won't make a case. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm assuming mafia is either jarjarbinks or zlefin. I actually think that jarjarbinks has generally seemed to be town this game (for his standards). I can see him thinking through things and analyzing, even if he rarely reaches the conclusion that I would. In addition, he has done some things that seem towny. Notably, he hammered Silverarte instead of voting for me. While it's possible that this could be a bus, I think it's more likely that jarjarbinks is town here. Meanwhile, zlefin's play has seemed unreliable. He was generally scumread early on, and then I made a post defending him. That post also told him what he could do to make it look like he was scumhunting. Guess what, he took my advice, and since then he has been mostly above suspicion. I feel like his play has died off since then, and my defense of him cleared him when it should not have. Now that I think about it, it's hard to think of reasons to townread him. I'm looking through zlefin's filter. It's hard to come up with things that are scummy in it. But it's also hard to come up with things that are towny. He seems really careful and cautious (note that this isn't necessarily a scum tell). In contrast, jarjarbinks's filter shows several scummy things, but also several towny things. In general, his reads and stances are much more memorable than those of zlefin. And that is why I want to lynch zlefin instead. As for jarjarbinks' decision to vote to lynch Silverarte instead of me, remember that missing that lynch would have put town at 5 player LYLO. In addition, my flip would make Tere look quite bad for pushing for my lynch. If jarjarbinks was indeed scum, one can assume that he saw the votes and voted to kill me instead of his partner Silverarte, and then went to the scum QT and was told to bus instead, so he switched. However, while this would provide strong connections between jarjarbinks and Silverarte, with town at LYLO that might never be an issue. There is definitely a real possibility of a jarjarbinks bus on Silverarte, but I still think that is less likely than a town jarjarbinks voting for scum instead of town. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 19 2015 05:06 zlefin wrote: This quote looks really weird with a flipped Silverarte.....I believe that's a good analysis, and would like to hear Silver's rebuttal. Also, if you think it's silver, any idea on who they're working with? I'm starting to try to think on pairwise analysis to see who looks too in sync. On February 20 2015 06:11 zlefin wrote: Look at these sentences (all from the same quote, stand alone, I just removed the stuff in between. If Silverarte flips, he is setting himself up for pushing Trfel, taking credit for voting scum. And if Trfel flips town, he's setting himself up to push Tere in response.Like I say, I could see a Trfel/Silver team as a possibility, as I looked over how things were done. I maintain silver is a great target right now. I'm suspicious of Tere as well, more suspicious than I am of trfel. This post looks bad Just a few random thoughts from zlefin's filter. I really think that the scum is zlefin, not jarjarbinks. Jarjarbinks has seemed more like town. There is a fair associative case between zlefin and Silverarte as well (notably how hard zlefin tried to avoid having Silverarte drag him down). Look at how zlefin's read on Silverarte changed. First he was suspicious of her for being inactive, then he gave her a cautious town read (which I feel is unwarranted), and then when suspicion picked up on Silverarte, he switched back to scum reading her. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
He's being extremely cautious. His posts seem to be putting in effort to look towny. He is really cautious with his stance on Silverarte. He's always staying under the radar, seeming to scumhunt but never really memorable. One of those alone is not incriminating, but combined? I think he is scum trying to avoid being lynched at all costs. I'm going to sleep now. Very interested to hear thoughts. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 23 2015 09:56 The Shining wrote: I'm done sparing feelings. Bad post is bad. I capitalized the word KNOW for the exact reason you made this post. The sentence is a very clear "I feel stronger about it now that I KNOW I'm right" inferring I didn't know I was right beforehand. Thank you for paraphrasing what I said but wording it so that it reflects negatively on me. Trfel, you casing Zlefin? You seem to think JJB isn't the lynch here. You are who I least suspect. If you stick by your hints, I assume you'll be looking into Zlefin. apologies for misreading that one then. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 23 2015 09:47 The Shining wrote: WTF is this post?! If you feel she's the best lynch, you think she's scum. By poe, you think everyone not her is town. If that's not true, you don't think she's scum. IF YOU DONT THINK SHES SCUM, WTF WERE YOU VOTING HER?! OK. Be annoyed. I'm not here to coddle you. I'm sorry you feel I misrepresented you. I don't feel that way. you're just plain wrong here. It's called estimates, not certainty. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 23 2015 10:23 Trfel wrote: And The Shining, I agree with jarjarbinks, I think you are tunneled on him. If I find a lynch that I think looks better, I just ask you to consider it with an open mind. And night kills are WIFOM, it will be hard to make any conclusion at all based on it. I concur in feeling that shining is tunneling on jjb. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 23 2015 14:54 Trfel wrote: This quote looks really weird with a flipped Silverarte..... Look at these sentences (all from the same quote, stand alone, I just removed the stuff in between. If Silverarte flips, he is setting himself up for pushing Trfel, taking credit for voting scum. And if Trfel flips town, he's setting himself up to push Tere in response. This post looks bad Just a few random thoughts from zlefin's filter. I really think that the scum is zlefin, not jarjarbinks. Jarjarbinks has seemed more like town. There is a fair associative case between zlefin and Silverarte as well (notably how hard zlefin tried to avoid having Silverarte drag him down). Look at how zlefin's read on Silverarte changed. First he was suspicious of her for being inactive, then he gave her a cautious town read (which I feel is unwarranted), and then when suspicion picked up on Silverarte, he switched back to scum reading her. when did I give silver a cautious town read? I'm asking because I don't remember doing that; and my point system shows no town points for silver. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 23 2015 14:54 Trfel wrote: This quote looks really weird with a flipped Silverarte..... Look at these sentences (all from the same quote, stand alone, I just removed the stuff in between. If Silverarte flips, he is setting himself up for pushing Trfel, taking credit for voting scum. And if Trfel flips town, he's setting himself up to push Tere in response. This post looks bad Just a few random thoughts from zlefin's filter. I really think that the scum is zlefin, not jarjarbinks. Jarjarbinks has seemed more like town. There is a fair associative case between zlefin and Silverarte as well (notably how hard zlefin tried to avoid having Silverarte drag him down). Look at how zlefin's read on Silverarte changed. First he was suspicious of her for being inactive, then he gave her a cautious town read (which I feel is unwarranted), and then when suspicion picked up on Silverarte, he switched back to scum reading her. I see nothing wrong with trying to figure out likely pairs. There were 2 mafia in the game, and they're likely do at least a little coordination. So looking to see which pairs seem more cooperative is useful, and which people seem to be genuinely at odds. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 23 2015 14:58 Trfel wrote: There doesn't really need to be a case on zlefin. It's really simple. He's being extremely cautious. His posts seem to be putting in effort to look towny. He is really cautious with his stance on Silverarte. He's always staying under the radar, seeming to scumhunt but never really memorable. One of those alone is not incriminating, but combined? I think he is scum trying to avoid being lynched at all costs. I'm going to sleep now. Very interested to hear thoughts. I'd say I'm cautious in general. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
My view was approximately this (I say approximately because coming up with exact %'s is hard and unreliable, but it shows my viewpoint accurately): Tere 60% chance scum Trfel 25% chance scum JJB 10% chance scum Shining 5% chance scum. Since there's one scum, the chances of course add up to 100%. With odds like that, and those odds being the result of everything that had happened in the thread up until then; post analysis, filter reading, etc; then Tere was the best lynch. Doesn't mean guaranteed scum, or that everyone else is town. It means the highest probability of being scum, by a sufficiently large margin, that new analysis from a third day won't change the odds by enough to change who the best lynch is (since 3rd day new material won't be large enough to change the much larger amount of content that came before). | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
But I can't make anything of it. If shining was mafia, there was little need to stir the pot when he was already the most townread player and hence likely to survive a lylo. Sure it bulks up his towncred which would help if he survives the night (seeing as mafia in this game has been killing towniest players); but I think he'd have been fine without that, due to the oft-pointed to wifom of NKs. Given the oddity of his play, and that his case on JJB was rather weak (not horrible, a case with some merit, but with real weaknesses, it felt much like Tere's case on Trfel); I feel more like Shining goal wasn't to target JJB per se, but to do a push to get reactions we could gauge in case the lynch turned out bad. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
Towniest: Shining Zlefin JJB Trfel Scummiest: But there's my ranking, though I'm considering swapping trfel and JJB. I haven't done another filter dive on JJB yet, and I need to do that to decide how I feel. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 23 2015 08:07 jarjarbinks wrote: lol there won't be a tomorrow! You are showing that you are trying, which draws confusion. After some analysis you go ahead and sheep shining's read because it is your only way out from getting lynched. And don't even think I missed that feel question from you before you decided to finally vote for me. You were definitely checking to see if I thought about voting shining, so you can change the way you are making your reads. this post concerns me, as JJB tends to be unsure about things, with lots of caveats. While this post shows a high level of certainty about something that's inherently unclear. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
My list as of now (Highest are town and lowest are scum): 1. Trf 2. Shining 3. JJB 4. Zlef I'm hoping I find something later that either changes this, or makes me more confident in pizking Zlef. Zlef, where did you get your percents from? | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
I simply used numbers that felt about right. There is no need to figure out %s that exactly, so I didn't bother to, only enough to demonstrate the point. | ||
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