The season already kicked off with some of the biggest upsets and we've barely even started. Its already been made clear that fortune favors the bold.

We're already seeing the effects of a very challenging map pool on several players with the early knockouts of several fan favorites like Bisu Sharp and Speed. While on the other side of things Shuttle found a second wind and Shinee punching his ticket to the Ro16, if it weren't for Best and Jaedong advancing on their end up we'd be talking about a very unusual Ro16 pool right now.

That being said there is another 3 groups being played this week and we're going to find out if that trend remains or if the favorites learn to hold on. Group F will be one to watch for sure.
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Group D brings together hero, ggaemo, Larva, and Mong. One player reached the quarterfinals last season, another reached them two seasons ago, and the remaining two are still searching for their first ASL playoff appearance.

hero’s recent results have been all over the place. He reached the round of 16 in ASL 19, went 0-2 in the ASL 20 round of 24, and then bounced back with a quarterfinal appearance last season. Soma swept him 3-0, but losing to the eventual champion is nothing to be ashamed of.

Larva had the opposite journey. He missed ASL 19, reached the ASL 20 quarterfinals, and lost 4-1 to Bisu. Last season, he went from the playoffs to an 0-2 round of 24 exit. One bad group erased all the momentum he had built.

Mong missed ASL 19, finished 1-2 in ASL 20, and went 0-2 last season. At this point, Mong escaping the round of 24 would qualify as a deep run. ggaemo is making his ASL debut after failing to qualify for each of the previous three seasons. He has waited a long time for this opportunity. Unfortunately, he opens against hero in ZvZ, where waiting around is generally discouraged.

Match 1: hero vs ggaemo
ZvZ gives ggaemo a chance to turn his debut into an immediate upset. We’ve already seen an upset in ZvZ this season. This is definitely an underdog’s tournament, but herO is still the more complete player and has far more experience under the ASL lights.

Match 2: Larva vs Mong
Larva went 0-2 last season, but Mong hasn’t advanced from the round of 24 since ASL 9. Mong can try to take advantage of Larva’s aggression if the game gets messy. It is more likely that Larva creates the mess and leaves Mong buried underneath it.

Winner’s Match: hero vs Larva
This is was the match missed from last season’s group C. Last season, hero advanced and continued all the way to the quarterfinals. Larva has the ability to win here and make his own run, but hero remains one of the most dangerous ZvZ players in ASL.
hero wins and advances first.

Loser’s Match: ggaemo vs Mong
Neither player has much recent ASL success to lean on. Mong has the experience, but most of that experience involves being eliminated. ggaemo takes advantage of a rare beatable opponent and keeps his debut alive.

Final Match: Larva vs ggaemo
ggaemo has already done the hard part by reaching ASL. Advancing through two established Zergs is asking for a little too much. Larva recovers from his loss to hero and avoids a second consecutive first-round exit.

hero and Larva Advance to the Ro16!

Group E contains Soulkey, PianO, JyJ, and sSak. Soulkey and JyJ have both won an ASL. Soulkey’s fall since then has been especially hard. He won ASL 19 by defeating Best 4-3 in the finals. One season later, he went 0-2 in the round of 16. Last season, he was eliminated from the round of 24 after losses to sSak and Ample. The four-time ASL champion has gone from sitting on the throne to struggling at the front gate. There’s lots of speculation as to whether he has just been lazy and not practicing at the same rate as he was during his championship form.

PianO returned to ASL last season after years away. He escaped the round of 24 by defeating Rush and Speed before going 0-2 in the round of 16. He may not be a championship threat, but he has already proven he can survive a group filled with recognizable names.

sSak finally broke through last season. After three consecutive round of 24 exits, he won his group over Ample, Soulkey, and JyJ. His run ended in the round of 16, where Soma and tulbo advanced ahead of him. JyJ has fallen even further. The ASL 15 champion failed to qualify for ASL 19 and then went 0-2 in both ASL 20 and ASL 21. He has not won a main-event game in two years.

Match 1: Soulkey vs PianO
PianO’s strongest matchup has traditionally been against Zerg, and Soulkey has looked mortal for two straight seasons. This is still a former champion against a player who went 0-2 in his only recent round of 16 appearance. Soulkey has fallen far, but not far enough to let PianO win

Match 2: JyJ vs sSak
These two met in the opening match last season. sSak won and continued through the group in first place while JyJ finished 0-2. JyJ has had an entire season to prepare his revenge, but still hasn’t shown he has enough form to win again.

Winner’s Match: Soulkey vs sSak
sSak defeated Soulkey in ASL 21, but Soulkey returned the favor during the ASL 22 Season Open. Soulkey looks more determined then ever to get back to the finals. It’s hard not to speculate that he was timing his return to form with the absence of Flash.

Loser’s Match: PianO vs JyJ
JyJ desperately needs a victory, but desperation hasn’t helped him during the last two seasons. PianO has always shown tons of potential, even in games he falls short in. Like Shinee, PianO will give us a surprise win as an underdog in this TvT.
PianO wins.

Final Match: sSak vs PianO
PianO has a real opportunity to advance, but sSak is coming off his best ASL performance in years. The series will be close, but sSak finishes the job.
sSak wins and advances second.

Soulkey and sSak Advance to the Ro16!

Group F is the dichotomy of the group being a powerhouse group of death (with an underdog in Calm who could throw a wrench with Bo1 ZvZs), yet simultaneously none of these players even making the Ro16 last ASL. Well, in fairness to EffOrt, he didn’t even sign up in time for the qualifiers (though I don’t know if that’s better or worse for his case). Mini straight up didn’t manage to even qualify, losing to Mong and sSak in the finals of each qualifier. Queen still keeps getting randomly eliminated in the Ro24. Calm is still just Calm at the end of the day.

Mini - After failing to make the last ASL, Mini qualified through Day 2 of the ASL Open, slamming EffOrt and Soulkey 2-0 to win. He’s also been on a very strong proleague grind, registering an all-kill to his name along with several multi-kills. While he started August slow (falling all the way down to 17th on the ELOboard), he’s since climbed up to 8th. The only caveat is that his PvZ winrate is suspect, with a 22-36 record. It also means that he’s grinding hard on the matchup, wanting to figure out the massive amount of Zergs in this tournament to hopefully make a deep run. After all, if you’re going to win an ASL, you’re likely going to have to go through at least one of Soma and Soulkey anyways. Overall, a recent 4k and strong KCM results, with strong momentum from his ASL Open qualification gives me hope that Mini is going to advance through the group.

Calm - Calm is definitely not too happy to have gotten drawn into this group of death. But ZvZs mean that he has a fighting chance to potentially upset the group and advance. However, his form has been suspect to say the least, going 1-2 in the last J-League. He’s actually 50th on the ELOboard (so he basically might as well not be on at all), but if there’s one thing he can maybe consider, it’s that Shinee has pulled off a miracle upset and advanced to the Ro16. Maybe this could be a repeat of the Tier 4s making stunning upsets, but I’m not all that confident.

Queen - The fall in Queen’s form continues as he continues to struggle to find his footing back in the ASL as a true contender. Queen has had a very up and down past couple of months. A mediocre 12th on ELOboard and further mid-tier results in proleague, Queen unfortunately sees himself set up against some pretty in-form competition. He’s also been poor in proleague and KCM, and outside the random 4k last week in winner’s league, he’s typically provides mediocre results. ZvZs also are not something that I would consider his strong suit, as his style of play seems to be more tailored to technical, macro games with some creative ideas, rather than imposing his will on his opponent with clinical micro and decisive movements.

EffOrt - EffOrt missing out on last ASL was a real shocker to many. He was clearly on the rise and likely to have been a strong bracket contender, and a Zerg who could’ve given Soma a run for his money in a chaotic ZvZ series. Add in the fact that EffOrt has an impressive record against FlaSh, and there were strong considerations that EffOrt could’ve gone all the way. Alas, he didn’t sign up and missed out on a massive opportunity. EffOrt remembered this time (he probably had the first day of signups circled on his calendar), and looks to be in great shape as he rolls into this ASL looking for a strong showing to make up for his ASL21 absence. He’s pushed all the way to 4th on the ELOboard, and he’s been running through proleague left and right, picking up several multikills in the past month. In a sense, his and Mini’s stories are mirrored: players who missed out on the last ASL who are looking to make a serious run in ASL22 with strong proleague results to back them. The only worry is all the ZvZ that he’ll be playing could create several coin flips that could cause him to stumble.

Mini and EffOrt Advance To The Ro16!

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Writers: FlashFTW, BisuDagger
Graphics: v1
Editors: BLinD-RawR