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So, again to describe my intentions further before I continue on. The most likely candidate as I went to sleep last night was in my opinion Shining.
The reason is that he gave me a stupid and monstrously difficult task to do (scumhunt through 60+ pages and convince at least 2 players to join me on a case I built on a game I just replaced in) and acted as if unless I did that I was just the default lynch.
Unlike zlefin he didn't straight up refuse to reconsider, he just made damn sure he wouldn't have to.
However, this all changes with the case on JJB. He literally went out of his way and did what I thought he wanted ME to do for me. This could of course be mafia powerplay, but when I think about how mafia would want to act here with basically a consensus lynch on me at the start of the day it's simply:
"Don't rock the boat too much, get this mislynch, stay ahead until lylo".
He sure has rocked the boat. As we speak (as opposed what I intendend) I actually think I should eliminate him as a possibility for mafia simply for the fact that he is not acting like one.
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The final player JJB I was not going to eliminate and was my first alternative to Shining (who yesterday I thought was the mafia).
The reason I did not want to eliminate him last night is that he responded similarly to Trfel, by actually summarizing the case. He even theorized as to why I was asking why people wanted to lynch me (although his conclusion was wrong).
This is his theory:
On February 22 2015 01:44 jarjarbinks wrote:
I think Palmar is trying to get us to tell him our biggest points on him so he can properly defend himself without addressing every single thing that's been put on him. It makes sense, and I think it's fair considering the condition he started this game in.
But in reality I was mostly trying to see who here had legitimate reasons for calling me mafia and who was basically trying to skirt along hoping to get the lynch on my quietly. Like I wanted to know who thought I was mafia and believed it and who thought I was mafia because it was easy.
Unlike Trfel jjb never offered any continued interaction. He also doesn't have the gigantic filter and thread presence that makes Trfel much less likely to be mafia. This makes JJB a potential candidate here.
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Let's have this simmer for a bit. I'm going to write some more, I'm also trying to find time to get through zlefin's and JJB's filters today. I did skim JJB's filter for interactions and mentions of silver and it was very, very void of them. For a looooong ass time he only mentioned silver in list posts "I think one of x, x, silver and x are mafia" without particularly talking about silver. Also he only quoted and spoke directly to silver very late in the game, but silver had an atrociously short filter so maybe that's forgivable.
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On February 22 2015 13:46 Trfel wrote:
Jarjarbinks, good to see you here. Care to chat for a bit?
I'm going to assume that the answer is yes.
How much online mafia experience do you have? Have you played on sites other than TL?
Jarjarbinks, please take note of two things. First, it's only natural to try to sell a case when you make it. If it's what you believe, you are going to argue for it as hard as you can, and portray it to be convincing as possible (of course it still must be 100% true, but you want to try and sell it at the same time). I don't know if I explained that very well, if you don't understand, I can try to explain it better. Second, it's extremely hard to remember how everyone played in every game, especially at the level necessary to make solid meta reads like that. This isn't an indication of The Shining being lazy, insulting, ignoring you, or anything like that, it's simply natural. It would be helpful if you provided some quotes from previous games where you said that your reads are bad, though.
I left and was pissed lol
I can go back and find where I call my reads crap in past games.
This is my 3rd game on here. I played a kinda ish game on starkingdoms with shining, but everyone was pretty much inactive. You have been in all of my games too besides that starkingdom one.
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Do you still think I am mafia jjb?
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For the NK part of your post Shining:
If you look at my activity, you would notice there is a large portion where I am gone during the week. I usually get back an hour or 2 before EOD. If you look back you can see this is relatively obvious lol
Yes I made a joke there. You scumming me for that makes me feel like you are selling your case instead of being objective. You have to sell your case, but if you scum me for something weak or wrong expect people to see that.
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On February 22 2015 23:38 Palmar wrote:
Do you still think I am mafia jjb?
Idk if your play really changes my view on you so far. It looks like you are trying to create doubt to get people to not lynch you.
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On February 22 2015 15:30 Trfel wrote:Jarjarbinks, one more question. At the end of Day 2, you initially voted for me, and then you changed your vote to Silverarte. I read your explanation at the time, but while I am obviously happy with your decision, I'm trying to understand your thought process here. Is there anything more you can possibly add about this? The Shining, no guarantees, but I'll try to stay up. Day 3 song: + Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh3Kk5tZSmo
Because town needs to be logical.
I'll try. Obviously I look awful for waffling there lol When I first got on, I was extremely surprised you had so many votes on you via your play. Tere's first case on you wasn't great when I was reading through, but her second case was better. After initially reading it, there were a lot of times where I could see where she was coming from. Your defense to her posts didn't help too much, because in our last game where you were scum, you attempted to hardcore defend yourself after being copread by LS. Hence the initial vote.
I felt you definitely deserved analyzing because I initially read you as townish (with just one red flag in that EOD D1) and I should base my reads on you through my own eyes. I went back through your complete filter and I didn't feel as confident about lynching you as before. Honestly, tone reads aren't my forte, and you definitely had some fantastic analysis in there. People were sheeping your reads rather than the other way around for the most part. This is why I changed my vote.
Zlefin's note that silver was also in Tere's case had also caused me to be less confident in Trf's vote. When he said that I was still going through Trf's filter and I didn't want to switch solely because of that because Silver could have been an easy mislynch do to her lack of thread presence.
As to Shining's note that I kept switching at the end. I didn't unvote Trf. Somebody told me I didn't, hence the garbage in the vote thread. You who was constantly reading my case would know that and this goes to show that you are still reaching to sell your case rather than being honest.
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D2 analysis with Silver:
Silver was the last one of my "top four" at N1. That is why I kept talking about how I needed to go through her stuff. I admit, reading my post on silver does leave a lot to be desired. I think my post was actually rather confusing. It was meant to all be scumreading Silver, but I added a lot of caveats. I tend to play devil's advocate when I make my reads lol If I need to clarify, my conclusion at the end was "I think silver looks really scummy, I need to look at Ely again before I move silver up to my top scum person"
I have seen mafia randomly post a JJB is probably town post before. Trf did it many times in our last game which you were apart of and on his scum team. Silver is not Trf, but I could see Silver doing this. While I wasn't voted for on here, I think most people were scumreading me throughout D1 and D2, just not to the extreme that I am used to seeing. The only people that thought I was towny was Tere and Rso (who literally always defends me and gives me BOD).
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The reason why I didn't vote till late is because before I went to work, I wasn't able to read through Ely's filter. The night before literally had me up to 230. I can't read through the thread at work. I get back an hour or two before EOD, which is when I got back at the end of D2. I could have voted either Ely/SIlver there but I didn't think doing that without going through Ely's filter again was fair to either person.
You can spin my switch on them however you like, but I explained why I switched.
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On February 22 2015 23:52 jarjarbinks wrote:Idk if your play really changes my view on you so far. It looks like you are trying to create doubt to get people to not lynch you.
Well obviously I am.
If people aren't doubting that I am the right lynch I am not doing my job.
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I swear Shining lol
D3
You can spin that major point by Trf to make me look scum. That is fine. I agree, I can be made to look scum that way. I still think that point was a major aspect of his case.
As for my cases on you guys: I still think you guys are freaking town. Yes I was trying to go back and see who I would be most suspicious of post flip. I was most suspicious of zlefin with you at #2. Yes I add caveats to my arguments, but that's how I make arguments. I literally do the opposite of what you do. I try to look at everything and play devil's advocate. As for the rest of your argument, I'VE PLAYED THIS GAME WITH YOU 3 TIMES.
It really bothers me that people get scummed for making jokes. Like it really does lol EVERY FREAKING GAME.
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As for your last case Shining on my defense of D1.
The reason I'm referring to meta with you is because we have played in these games together. You have not seen scum JarJar so you cannot be sure how I will act. However, referring to my behavior as 100% scum when you have seen me do the exact same thing before multiple times is flat out wrong. Worst case scenario it should be seen as around 25% or the odds that I RNG'd scum. My problem with it is that you take it to 100% scum, hence selling your case and not being honest.
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why would a townie not be honest in his case on you jjb?
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On February 23 2015 00:46 Palmar wrote:
why would a townie not be honest in his case on you jjb?
lol in my rage I have definitely thought of that
Reasons for Shining to scum me this hard:
1: Paranoid town looking for someone else to scum when the person is lying right in front of them.
2: Is scum and is preparing the next target.
3. Has an ego and wants his case to be better than Trf's
4. Actually thinks I'm scum.
Sadly, I think 1,3, and 4 are legitimate reasons for him doing this lol Now the whole adding details he knows is wrong?
#1: Could still be a thing here, maybe he is worried we are all set in our ways and thinks this is the only way to change our votes. These details could sway say zlefin, but Trf? I don't think so. Granted I know myself more than Trf, but he's been in all my games as well.
#3: Doesn't affect it, if no one catches these details his case looks stronger and he can try to earn MVP award.
#4: I'm copying and pasting from #1 "These details could sway say zlefin, but Trf? I don't think so. Granted I know myself more than Trf, but he's been in all my games as well."
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Day 3 Vote Count
Palmar (3): zlefin, jarjarbinks, Trfel
jarjarbinks (1): The Shining
Not Voting (1): Palmar
Currently, Palmar is set to be expelled from South Park Elementary. Day 3 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00).
Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone.
Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain.
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I went back to my first game on here: 5 pages of filter. If you would like me to post specific instances than I will do so to give you less work to do. If anything, I made more jokes in that game and called myself dumb, a noob, contradictory, and scummy multiple times even though I was town.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?user=jarjarbinks
I would post specific quotes but there's so many to choose from. Shining was alive the entire time and I believed killed me EOD D3 to lose the game. He obviously was looking through my filter because he was town as well.
Trf not so much. Died D1.
I know posting meta is super not cool but I think this helps my defense lol
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Grabbed my second game if you were curious why I only posted my first (only 6 pages I died N2 as tracker):
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/475036-student-mafia-v?user=jarjarbinks
I'm doing the same things (altho I think I called myself stupid less on this one), the beginning was pretty hilarious actually if you want to discuss it after game that's cool.
If it helps you understand me, my strategy before the game even started was to ask more questions and to make less jokes to appear more town lol
If I was you trying to judge me based on those games:
1. My filter is longer here.
2. I've tried to call myself stupid less.
3. Proportionally I've made less jokes for some odd reason lol
If you would like to ask me about these be my guest. If not, look at my actions. I was an outlier D1. I waffled on Trf on D2. You can make a case on my reads saying that I should have improved from my last games.
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I need to take a break for a few hours. I'll be back with plenty of time before EOD today to answer whatever questions come up lol
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EPT
