Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 71
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22631 Posts
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We'll discover the answer tomorrow! | ||
Trfel
7015 Posts
My gut tells me that zlefin is the most likely candidate if Tere/Palmar is town, but I still see this as extremely unlikely. | ||
The Shining
United States2406 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
But I'm going to be away for most of tomorrow. I'll probably be back right before the lynch, and I can check in once in the afternoon, hopefully. The Shining, if you can get your case out tonight, that would be ideal, so I can give it the full thought that it (hopefully) deserves. | ||
The Shining
United States2406 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
It's okay, case building takes a ton of time XD | ||
The Shining
United States2406 Posts
I was thinking we could lynch Palmar and if its a mislynch, I could run this case but being one of the apparent universal townreads right now, I probably wouldn't be around D4 in the case of a mislynch today. Something about Palmar mentioning the "best lynch" really gave me some pause. Tere really honestly wasn't going to be the best lynch today. All you have to do is look at her filter. But with no one pressuring or diving JJB, or anyone else, and town being so ready to settle on a lynch, no one was going to realize that. Let me state this clearly. The worst thing Town can do today is settle on a lynch based on one case, albeit a good one, BEFORE EON EVEN HAPPENS. ESPECIALLY AFTER A SCUM FLIP. Look at ALL interactions with the flipped scum. I'm just as guilty as the rest of you when it comes to tunneling Tere and believing she is scum. Trfel's case pretty much hammered that and everyone seems content to follow it. SO, not only will I be casing Jar Jar Bink's as the Mafia Goon but I will also be following up with why Tere is more likely to flip Town. JJB has done a stellar job of being under the radar, this entire game. With the Silver scum flip, I decided to re-evaluate his entire play from D1 on. I will do my best to keep this case easily readable and concise. DAY 1 + Show Spoiler + D1 - His entrance to the game is very quiet and forgettable, opening with a question that doesn't need to be asked or answered here.. Looks like he just wants to look active and contributing early. Throws out useless reads that say nothing here.. Summary: Trfel is either scum or town(duh), my reaction was expected, even though RSo and Trfel both felt off on it. From there, we get more nothing posts, one of which is him clearly stating his insights are trash. If your wincon is to lynch scum as town, I don't care how trash you think your reads are. You share them, you push them, you let other town tell you where you are right or wrong. Especially in a newbie game. This is how you learn. You dont just sit back and let other Townies carry you to a win. Next up is the Hier Bridges reaction. Almost everyone decided that it was a bad idea for town and would take away from two main scumhunting tools: vote analysis and analysis of intehelpful s. I say almost because there was one person very onboard with it. Jar Jar. Next few posts he talks about nothing BUT until RSo and "excel testing" convince him it isn't helpful here. He claims to see that the Bridges Method is scum-favored in that post. If that is the case, why are his next few posts STILL ABOUT THE BRIDGES METHOD AND TRYING HIS HARDEST TO GET HIER TO CONVINCE US TO USE IT. Makes no sense. He towns Hier for most of the reasons we all scummed Hier. At one point, Trfel clearly states he will not town read Hier off of the Bridges strategy alone, which is exactly what JJB did. Keeping in mind scum know exactly who is town, it looks like JJB knows Hiers mislynch is picking up traction. So he does his best to make sure everyone knows he is the one Townreading Hier.Proof JJB follows that up with sheeping thread sentiment. He wants to see more from Zlefin's reads(I pushed that) and ElyAs. He is continuosly sheeping and gauging thread temperature on where his next mislynch wagon can go, in case Hier defends himself out of his. At one point, without anyone asking him, he switches my read from null/suspicious to STRONG TOWNREAD here. PLEASE READ THIS POST AND ALL OTHERS IN HIS FILTER BEFORE IT. It is a rather weak explanation, no progression, no examples of where or how I scumhunted. But I'm strongest townread now! There is no explanation or prompting for this post...except that a few posts before that one, I posted this. I clearly call for the thread, namely town, to keep a close eye on Trfel and JJB. Bam, his next post concerning me is a strong townread. Scum like to give free townreads to town for towncred. I really wish I had caught this unwarranted strong read earlier. Might I add that on D1, most people had me as suspicious or null. So JJB's reads are pretty original in that everyone else believes the contrary Moving on, ElyAs scumreads JJB. JJB's stance on ElyAs is "I like his posts.". RSo picks up on this and JJB responds to it here.. Note that JJB can't clearly explain why he likes Ely's posts as town. As scum, you can't come out and say you like someone's posts because you know they're town. So he comes up with yet another painfully weak townread, though not as strong. He asked 2 questions(scum can do this too) and he scumread JJB. He had a reason to, if he remembers correctly. UM, WHAT? If someone is scum reading me as town, you better believe I know damn well exactly what post and what point was used against me. And personally, I will never, ever like a persons posts if they're scumming me(see: my Tere reaction). Not until I can explain objectively if I understand why they read me that way. IRONICALLY ENOUGH, JJB KNOWS THIS. He says so as he takes up my gauntlet and defends me from Trfel questioning. Post.. He defends my being weary of Trfel's opening. He sort of lies in the next point. He points out his scum game and says I probably haven't read it. Feels like a temp check if JJB is already thinking about NKs. Who can spot a JJB scum meta? RSo(killed N1) and apparently myself, if I read his other scum game. I wonder if I would've died N1 had I said I did in fact read that game. Whatever, wifom. He says I'm damn good at catching him on out other forum. Thanks for the ego boost, bro, but I'm really not. I'm almost positive I've mislynched you more than that 1 time I caught you. 3rd point is he disagrees with my Zlefin case. Won't scum me for it but it is weak. OK. That's pretty null. But 4th point. My defensiveness could be scum like. But he uses meta to explain that I normally play this way, which is true. Its proven in my interactions with Trfel and Tere. The main red flag is, why is he coming to my aid? I realize Trfel asked everyone their thoughts, but before this, JJB's read on me was weak. Strong townread but no support. It isn't lost on me that he knows I'm suspicious of him now. Him white knighting me feels like he's trying his damndest to pocket me. FML I HAVE TO LEAVE WORK NOW. JJB's filter was worst than I expected. Trfel, I might bump you for largest case this game. There are a few other small things on D1 worth mentioning but I really think D2 is where he messed up. I will finish the D2 portion, vote analysis on D1 and D2(better vote analysis, please disregard my last one, looking back it feels a bit rushed) and explanation of my Tere/Palmar townread when I get home from work. | ||
Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Again, I'll take a look, and I'll read jarjarbinks' filter, but it's a hard lynch to be confident about just by its nature. | ||
The Shining
United States2406 Posts
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On February 22 2015 13:02 Trfel wrote: My main worry about lynching jarjarbinks is that he always looks scummy. It's sort of like sicklucker, I have a really hard time trying to get a read on them because of this. Rsoultin has said multiple times that jarjarbinks always gets scumread, and she usually has to defend jarjarbinks really forcefully. So my main request for your case isn't to show that jarjarbinks looks scummy, I would want you to show that jarjarbinks looks more scummy than normal, and why that means that he can't be town. And I don't really know how it's possible to prove that, which would make me really uncomfortable lynching jarjarbinks. Again, I'll take a look, and I'll read jarjarbinks' filter, but it's a hard lynch to be confident about just by its nature. The voting analysis and D2 analysis will help with that. If not, and Palmar lynch goes through and flips town, one of us will die tonight. The other HAS to push JJB. Look at Zlefin filter compared to JJb. Look at Tere's compared to his. Just wait, I'll put it all together. | ||
The Shining
United States2406 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Or one of us (in practice, only you, because I know for certain I am town) could actually be scum and playing the game of their lives. But I'm just going to say right now that night kills are WIFOM and I'm not going to make any guesses whatsoever as to the night kill. I know your case is nowhere near complete yet. I'm just sharing some thoughts. And believe me, if you are night killed and flip town (or heck, no matter what, even if I get night killed), I'll take a very good look at your case and jarjarbinks' filter. | ||
The Shining
United States2406 Posts
I've just never scumread JJB this badly before. K I'm oiutmtil I get home, later | ||
Trfel
7015 Posts
I think you are town, and I think you really believe what you are seeing, but I'm not seeing it yet. I'll keep looking. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
1. This is confusing coming from you about my previous games. You've been in all my previous games. I don't have a "meta scum game". 2. You calling my Day 1 reads weak is also confusing coming from you. YOUVE BEEN IN ALL MY PREVIOUS GAMES. Think of a read I had that was actually strong in your opinion. 3. This is sappy, be warned. I defended Hier mostly because I empathized with him. He came out with a strategy that say wasn't the best but it was different. He obviously was trying. Everyone comes down on him and makes him feel like trash. At one point I could have sworn you guys were going to get him to quit. And don't even think that he wouldn't, you guys already got two others to quit. In my first game on here, IN A NEWBIE GAME, you guys literally made me feel like crap. 4. In some places in your case, you insult my intelligence. In others, you make act like I can actually have a decent strategy. Please pick one. 5. I have played with you for 3 games. I've seen you constantly scumread anyone that scumreads you, especially day one. Granted, you can change your behavior, but that is why I defended you. 6. YOU'VE BEEN IN ALL MY GAMES! I ALWAYS CALL MY READS CRAP! Do you just ignore me in all my games? I just don't get it. I'm sure you have a great case that you will spend hours on, and I'm glad you are scumhunting that much. But please think objectively. Stop trying to sell your case and post what you actually think about it. | ||
Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm going to assume that the answer is yes. How much online mafia experience do you have? Have you played on sites other than TL? Jarjarbinks, please take note of two things. First, it's only natural to try to sell a case when you make it. If it's what you believe, you are going to argue for it as hard as you can, and portray it to be convincing as possible (of course it still must be 100% true, but you want to try and sell it at the same time). I don't know if I explained that very well, if you don't understand, I can try to explain it better. Second, it's extremely hard to remember how everyone played in every game, especially at the level necessary to make solid meta reads like that. This isn't an indication of The Shining being lazy, insulting, ignoring you, or anything like that, it's simply natural. It would be helpful if you provided some quotes from previous games where you said that your reads are bad, though. | ||
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