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Here's a response to Part 1 of The Shining's case. It's paragraph by paragraph, so it might be a bit hard to tell what responds to what. I'm sorry about that but I hate the whole responding in quotes thing.
I refuse to attribute anything other than null to jarjarbinks's opening. I've seen openings townread and scumread for all sorts of reasons, and honestly analyzing people's openings just feels like RNG. Maybe the analysis is good, but people aren't very smart, so even capable town players will make openings that seem bad upon further analysis. Second, jarjarbinks was specifically asked for comments on the thread by rsoultin. Let's be honest, you really can't expect anyone (much less a player in a newbie game... As for jarjarbinks saying that his reads are weak, again, my guess is that everyone here (possible exception Palmar, I don't really know how good he is, though I assume he is rather good) has relatively weak reads (compared to the rest of TL Mafia).
I don't think that jarjarbinks initially liking Hier's Bridges plan is an indication of him being scum. Your point is that after this analysis, jarjarbinks continues to advocate using the Bridges plan. I don't see that at all, the only indication I see of that is asking Hier if there was a reason to use the Bridges method that was missed in his analysis. Multiple people suggested that there could be some reason for town to use the Bridges method that was not apparent from the method itself, making it a fair thing. In addition, Hier obviously put a lot of effort into his plan, so it seems generally poor to completely discount it without asking him if there are any more reasons in its favor.
Third point, that jarjarbinks townread Hier. I disagree with the read, but that doesn't mean that jarjarbinks is scum (town can be wrong). In addition, jarjarbinks is making a read and explaining it, and while I don't agree with it, I can see how he would arrive at that conclusion. I don't see why this is a scum tell.
Jarjarbinks reread the thread and changed his mind. While this doesn't look good, I feel that it is plausible early in the game with few pages to work with. In addition, if jarjarbinks is scum, that means that Tere is town, and Tere townread this post for tone and honesty.
How can you say that jarjarbinks is constantly sheeping and reading the thread sentiment while also having original reads because everyone else says the opposite?
I sometimes like posts that are scumreading me. For example, yours from earlier this game  That said, I found this post where jarjarbinks explains his read (before the post in response to rsoultin) where he explains it a little better. Still, his read seems passable, though the explanation changed a bit for seemingly little reason, which is a tad suspicious I suppose.
I don't see the relation between jarjarbinks knowing that The Shining scumreads those who scumread him and anything in the paragraph before it.
What scum game do you refer to? I'm pretty sure jarjarbinks has never rolled scum. And I don't see him mention this in his filter. Some of these sentences feel like they are responding to something that rsoultin said, not jarjarbinks? I personally felt that jarjarbinks' comment was interesting and insightful. And if you're going to pick on someone for white knighting this game, it should be me. I've defended basically everyone at some point. My inclination is that jarjarbinks saw me being suspicious of you for a poor reason and (correctly) pointed out why he thought it was poor.
I'm sorry, I just really don't see what you are getting at here at all.
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Hm, that was longer than expected, sorry. But the point is in the last sentence. Please explain anything I am missing here.
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JJB. Really?
Alright, I'm home. I won't be responding to JJB's defense or Trfel's analysis of the first part of my case until the rest of it is up. I purposely posted that first half to see what the reaction would be and it's exactly as I expected. Trfel is looking at it critically, and JJB...well, I'll add JJB's defense to the end of the case.
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On February 22 2015 14:42 The Shining wrote:
JJB. Really?
Alright, I'm home. I won't be responding to JJB's defense or Trfel's analysis of the first part of my case until the rest of it is up. I purposely posted that first half to see what the reaction would be and it's exactly as I expected. Trfel is looking at it critically, and JJB...well, I'll add JJB's defense to the end of the case. That's fair. I would like to know however, any ETA until the rest of the case? I'd like to know if I should try and stay up for it or if I should go to bed (and maybe wake up early to read it?).
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Second question, if I have been restored to being mostly townread after Tere's case, would you prefer it if I waited to post my thoughts about your case until some others see it and react first? I can type up a response and save it in a Word document for posting tomorrow afternoon or something.
If you want my response immediately, that's no problem either. But I am going to want to go to sleep in two hours at the absolute latest, and I'd really prefer to go to sleep sooner (one hour would be nice, though I might be able to stretch it). And if I go to sleep before you post, it's a moot point.
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An hour, maybe hour and a half. Obviously I'd understand if you want to go to bed. If you'd like to wait to analyze the rest, I wouldn't mind, although getting it up tonight would allow me to see what other troubles you have and leave you more to think on tomorrow.
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Jarjarbinks, one more question. At the end of Day 2, you initially voted for me, and then you changed your vote to Silverarte. I read your explanation at the time, but while I am obviously happy with your decision, I'm trying to understand your thought process here. Is there anything more you can possibly add about this?
The Shining, no guarantees, but I'll try to stay up.
Day 3 song:
+ Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh3Kk5tZSmo
Because town needs to be logical.
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JJB CASE CONTINUED
N1
This one's short and sweet. JJB has 5 posts throughout the night phase. Throws out that due to votes, he would be most suspicious of Trfel, Ely, Silver, Tere. Hints at possibly being NK'd because "mafia might not like Star Wars" which is off, because he was far from universally townread. Note that out of these 4 names, Silver is there but is not one of the 2 shots he later comes back with to answer Tere's question. He prefers shooting Ely and Tere. Cases Ely, Cases Tere.
JJB said himself his reads are bad, right? So the logical conclusion is he is wrong on these. And Ely flipped Doc. I think Tere flips VT. This leads into D2, as his posting was just minutes before EoN. Kind of convenient, since general town consensus was that RSo would be best at reading JJB and he posted reads on Ely and Tere right after.
NK is WIFOM but I can't help but find it worth mentioning that a Silver-JJB scumteam is most threatened by RSoultin.
D2/Interactions With Silverarte
+ Show Spoiler +After the reads on Ely and Tere, JJB proceeds, once more, to defend his strongest townread in me. Defends my Hier vote. I can't shake the feeling that if JJB's reads are all bad according to him, how am I his only correct one? I didn't really find my play leaning strong Town until post-Tere interaction. WHY IS HE TRYING TO DEFEND ME SO HARD? I'm not even in any immediate danger here. Then this post right here just screamed red flag in my brain upon rereading it. Banding together lynch deaths and night deaths? They have two totally different significances when it comes to vote analysis. Especially since it is generally accepted that NKs are WIFOM. Seems like a scumtell that all deaths look the same. But mostly, for D2, I want to ping on his case on Silver. When it came to Ely and Tere, he had 3-4 bullets on each one, thought out, pretty solid. He was asked for a Silver read and forgot it for a while, even says so himself. Then he finally does and its so weak and non-committed, considering how weak Silver's stance was at that point. Here is the post. Calls her forgettable(parroting RSo), feels everyone else's case on her was good and she didn't really have any good cases herself. Hints that the most we'll get from Silver is from these recent posts. Gives her cred for a lot of effort in scumreading town, "which is odd because everyone was leaning town on her until then." He is still trying to give her BoD. He eventually summarizes here. He makes excuses for her, then calls them excuses. Asks anyone scumreading Silver to ignore her early posts and read her based on her content post. And that first line of that last paragraph sounds funny. "I had Tere #2 in my lynch list before but I think Silver is more lynchable." So your #2 is still your #2 instead of replacing your #1. But now that Silver is pressured, he is setting up to bus. I'd also like to note that Silver N1 dropped this gem. Just chiming in to make sure people know he's been scumread as town before. It looks like she's trying to deflect off of Jar Jar. The next post of interest is his response to me wanting him to give me a read on Silver. He never does. And the post makes no sense, I wish I would've noticed sooner. Post. He asked me if I'm still that suspicious of Tere. I respond saying I will get nowhere pushing her after my argument with her and would rather look for the other, more obvious scum. His response? I am right. She is the most inactive, it'll be easy to mislynch her if she's town. Later flips could determine if she's scum. WTF IS HE TALKING ABOUT HERE? He is panicking. His scumpartner Silver is outed. Now he is Silver-centric, bus-centric and no longer trying to scumhunt. He forgot HIS OWN LINE OF QUESTIONING TO ME ABOUT BEING SUSPICIOUS OF TERE. He's THAT concerned with agreeing with someone else thinking Silver could be a mislynch. 2 mins later, he must've realized his mistake because he leaves the thread. NEVER GAVE ME A READ ON SILVER. At this point, we go into D2 EoD and his vote on Trfel over Silver. He comes in, wonders why people are voting Trfel, hints that he hasn't read thread(scumtell). Says defensive Trfel looks scum. READS ARE NOT CONSISTENT. I'M DEFENSIVE D1 AND I'M TOWNED FOR IT. Then another post hinting at Silver being a mislynch. BUT, give him time. He might just kill the lurker. He's torn. He can't decide if he pushes the mislynch and outs himself, or buses his partner for towncred. Finally decides he can't get away with mislynching Trfel due to content, filter size...huh. Before doing that, he asked me if I townread Trfel for his filter size. Interesting.
I'm still not done but gawd, this thing is so damn long. But it's worth it. I just really hope that you read this, Town.
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I think that I'll have to go to bed after I get through that post. I'm really tired.
But seriously, thanks a bunch for being willing to go through all this filter diving and case making.
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EBWOP: In the spoiler. 2nd paragraph. The sentence should read:
Gives her cred for a lot of effort in scumreading Tere(I originally wrote town), "which is odd because everyone was leaning town on her until then." He is still trying to give her BoD.
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On February 22 2015 16:47 Trfel wrote:
I think that I'll have to go to bed after I get through that post. I'm really tired.
But seriously, thanks a bunch for being willing to go through all this filter diving and case making.
No problem. I want to win. I'll do a better D2 vote analysis here shortly, as well as get around to responding to your concerns regarding JJB's D1. And I'll get to his emotionally charged defensive post, as well. His tone and posting this Day Phase in particular has changed quite markedly.
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This time I will try numbering my points. They are chronological with regards to your post.
1. Jarjarbinks considering the possibility of being night killed due to a Star Wars hating mafia team is a joke, clearly. That said, mafia teams sometimes behave in extremely weird ways, so even a scumread player considering the possibility of being night killed isn't alignment indicative.
2. Bad reads doesn't mean always wrong. Otherwise, bad reads are just as good as good reads, because you make your reads and then do the opposite. Jarjarbinks is making reads and sharing thoughts, which is exactly what you criticized him for not doing in Part 1, saying he said that his reads were bad to compensate.
3. I agreed, for a jarjarbinks-Silverarte scumteam, there seems to be no possible kill but rsoultin. But if I were jarjarbinks, I would actually want to keep rsoultin around to defend me here. Especially after rsoultin townread jarjarbinks early. So I can't really implicate jarjarbinks through the night kill at all.
4. Again, it is completely possible for a player to say their reads are bad and still act strongly to push them (in this case, defending you). If you want an example, look at me. My reads are bad, but I'll still push them with force when I feel that it is called for.
5. Look at the context for jarjarbinks talking about combining lynch and night deaths. It seems that this is collected from other games, so it is not alignment indicative for this game.
6. Jarjarbinks posted scumreads on ElyAs and Tere. Apparently his read on Silverarte was provided at someone's request? Thus it is perfectly acceptable for it to be shorter. He seems to provide a general null, for which the length is appropriate (I'm the only player who goes in depth about null reads, and basically everyone hates it when I do).
7. Maybe that Silverarte post is a bit suspect for jarjarbinks, but posts like that are so easy for mafia. You show that you are reading and you help out without providing anything to put yourself at risk (I consider posts like that null).
8. The rest of the association case between Silverarte and jarjarbinks actually is rather interesting. That's the first part of your case so far that I really find myself agreeing with. Still, I can see a town jarjarbinks behaving in the same way, though it's a bit of a stretch. That's why I asked my earlier question to jarjarbinks, to see if he can shed any light on this.
I'll take another look in the morning. For the record, I went through jarjarbinks's filter on my own, and while I (consciously) ignored the association case between jarjarbinks and Silverarte, the only thing I noticed is that he first called ElyAs's filter good and scumhunting and later called it boring (went along with thread sentiment).
My final stance is that I still think that Tere/Palmar is a significantly better lynch. I'm not convinced by most of your case at this time, but you've made some interesting points. I'm not sure how much time I'll get to spend on it tomorrow, but if we don't win with the lynch, I will most definitely be revisiting this.
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D2 VOTING ANALYSIS
My ORIGINAL D2 voting analysis is in the spoiler for reference. It needed to be expanded on. I let JJB fly under the radar on this again.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 20 2015 09:40 The Shining wrote:As much as I don't feel this is necessary, I did this N2 in the last Newbie Mini and I'm doing it here. Vote Analysis:Show nested quote +On February 19 2015 21:57 Half the Sky wrote:
Day 2: Counting Down
ElyAs (1): zlefin
Silverarte (1): Trfel
Tere (1): Trfel, The Shining
Trfel (1): Tere
Not Voting (3): Silverarte, ElyAs, jarjarbinks
Currently, ElyAs is set to be expelled from South Park Elementary. Day 2 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00).
Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone.
Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain.
Preliminary votes of the day. Scum Silver only has 1 vote on her. Its Trfel. That's a really bad bus. But it gets better. Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 06:03 Half the Sky wrote:
Day 2: Counting Down
Trfel (2): Tere, ElyAs
Silverarte (2): Trfel, zlefin
Tere (1): Trfel, The Shining
ElyAs (0): zlefin
Not Voting (3): Silverarte, jarjarbinks
Currently, Trfel is set to be expelled from South Park Elementary. Day 2 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00).
Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone.
Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. So Tere was on Trfel. Stays on Trfel. Keeps pushing him. Continuously leaves herself an open leeway stating Silver is also scum. But really seems dead set and intent on pushing Trfel first. Now at this point, I could maybe still believe Trfel bussing Silver. Until he actively pushes Silver as an alternate lynch to himself instead of Tere. I'm sorry, I don't see scum Trfel bussing his partner AS ROLEBLOCKER WITH A CLAIMED DOC. I would expect scum Trfel to push Tere. Hard. Especially with the early case and suspicions on her. Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 08:02 Half the Sky wrote:
Day 2: This Final Hour
Trfel (4): Tere, ElyAs, Silverarte, jarjarbinks
Silverarte (3): Trfel, zlefin, The Shining
Tere (0): Trfel, The Shining
ElyAs (0): zlefin
Currently, Trfel is set to be expelled from South Park Elementary. Day 2 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00).
Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone.
Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. At this point, scum Trfel IMO would've conceded. Tere got cocky and started throwing gladiating out there once more. Was probably 100% confident in the mislynch going through. What happens? 10 mins before EoD, ElyAs shows up and screws everything up for her. Switches to Silver. JJB goes through Trfels filter, compares it to Silver, she is objectively a much better lynch. Now she's the only one besides Silver on Trfel. If she stays there, the scum team looks so damn obvious they should just concede right then. So she busses Silver. But its too late. Damage is done. IMO, one of the last 2 votes on a scum flip is usually scum bussing to screw vote analysis. Unfortunately for scum Tere, the other of the last 2 votes is claimed Doc. I'm sorry this looks so bad but I'm on a tablet, getting posts out is difficult. Getting them to look pretty is hard. But this needed to be posted before the NK. If town really feels like obliging the Gladiating between Tere and Trfel, I say Tere goes first.
Notice how in the early voting, neither JJB nor Silver had voted yet. This is an important lynch for scum. If JJB begins to swap votes back and forth, it becomes suspicious. Silver doesn't vote yet because all 3 wagons besides hers are mislynches and only have 1 vote. She isn't sure which one she wants to hammer, so she holds back her vote until one gains traction. JJB is also hanging back.
Moving on, we see votes after Ely's Doc claim. He's no longer a viable wagon. Now everyone is voting. Except the scumteam. They see my wasted vote on Tere and know I'm town. They wait to see if my vote is going to stay there or if it moves to see if saving Silver is possible.
Lastly, we have the ultimate vote count. The Trfel wagon. Tere, ElyAs, Silver, JJB. Boom. Scum is hammering the mislynch. But immediately afterwards, both Tere and Trfel case Silver. Hard. Alarms go off. He has to bus, which he does 4 minutes after Tere's case in the voting thread and the same minute Trfel posts his case. And he is so flustered he unvotes Silver to vote Trf again to then unvote Trf and vote Silver again. That's just off. He's jumpy.
That's it for vote analysis expansion. Coming up next, responses and if I'm not sleepy yet, Tere's filter dive. If not, that happens tomorrow.
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Actually, I'll analyze JJB D3, as well, while responding to Palmar.
On February 22 2015 07:48 Palmar wrote:Anyway, tomorrow's mission is to figure out who screwed up  - Option 1) Is it Trfel with his extended dialogue, willingness to co-operate and discuss.?
- Option 2) Is it jarjar who summarized his thoughts in a single concise post to explain his stance?
- Option 3) Is it shining who requested that I focus on scumhunting instead of defending myself?
- Option 4) Is it zlefin who refuses to play the game because he has already set his mind?
We'll discover the answer tomorrow!
1) No. Those things alone are why I have him as town, along with tons of original reads, strong pushes, not only discussing but leading it. But also thinking critically of anything else discussed instead of dismissing it.
2) Yes. Because I can't seem to give up this case on JJB and keep seeing clues to it everywhere. He starts D3 with a nice goodbye to Tere. Generally I like the friendly tone but here, I could see it coming from guilty feelings as scum. Sheeps the Trfel case and says he's going to point out everything he likes/agrees with. But then immediately rescinds this on the basis of sparing Tere's feelings. I don't feel that's a good enough reason to stop giving your thoughts and contributing to the thread on the case involving the day's lynch.
And that one post. It feels too calculated. I'm not sure I can chalk it up to more than a tonal read but that's not the JJB I'm used to playing with. For one thing, WoT is not really his style. Take, for example, his reactions to Trfel's Tere case, to Silver's case. He quotes them in sections. This one is just...too different. It's in the spoiler.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 22 2015 01:44 jarjarbinks wrote:
I think Palmar is trying to get us to tell him our biggest points on him so he can properly defend himself without addressing every single thing that's been put on him. It makes sense, and I think it's fair considering the condition he started this game in.
I honestly don't want to go to far into this because I want Tere to come back and play more games. You do deserve to know what points are the most important to defend yourself though. The point that struck home for me the most was Tere's switch on Trf when Silver was looking worse and worse. In Tere's reads, she clearly has Silver as very scummy and part of the mafia team with Trf. I think town Tere would have gone after Silver first, while telling people to look at Trf's filter and make her case on Trf the next day. Instead, she goes after a mostly townread (by everyone I believe) Trf with her case while the other scum is literally at the chopping block. The mafia Tere is much more likely to try to go after Trf to save silver for another round, while at the same time taking down one of the more active towns.
Shining, I think your idea is a good one. We have time to relook at things just in case Tere/Palmar is town. I'm really struggling to do this because Tere looks so mafia right now, but I put down my thoughts.
Trf has been making most of the strongest cases in this game, which really strengthens the argument that he is town. I think Tere's case showed how it might be possible that he is mafia, but his last mafia game is nothing compared to this one if he actually is mafia. He's been carrying the team on this game.
I have been mostly townreading you throughout this game, and looking back through your filter, it's hard for me to see you being the mafia. If you were mafia, the activity you showed in Day1 to your rant is drastically different from your rant-now which would definitely help your end game which poses a red flag? The lack of people really scumreading you late game could also be a red flag. But I definitely believe your reasoning behind your activity change and your play throughout the game has been towny to me.
Zlefin appears towny since D1. Looking back through his Day1 filter, I can see how town zlefin played D1 as well. I guess my only concern here would be that nobody has scumread him since D1 really (besides silver I guess). Most people have kind of left him alone. As a new player, you would think mafia would look at him. But he has looked very towny since D1 I believe. As far as carrying town, I think he has done the least out of the three (besides me) yet still appears very towny, so I think I would consider him very suspicious after a relook if Tere/Palmar actually turns town.
I could see myself being mafia if I was any of yall lol I always get voted for in these games because of my play and I haven't yet. I had an outlier D1. I waffled on Trf D2. A lot of my reads were not original. My voting analysis has me as primary suspect after day 1 and still suspicious play in D2. And yet I haven't been scumread much lol
So he decides to tell us his thoughts on Tere, after all. And as I read it now, I find it interesting that he fits into the exact same scenario. JJB's vote switch and initial vote look just as bad, if not worse, as I showed in my vote analysis. I think Tere was tunneled on Trfel. JJB says that she was always suspicious of Silver and town Tere would've pushed her before Trfel. However, look at the difference in content and contribution between Silver and Tere. If Tere is playing for town and really believing her case, Trfel is a much bigger threat as scum to keep alive another day. Silverarte is just easy cleanup. In my experience, tunneling that hard on a player such as Trfel(almost universally townread, large filter, lots of content) is suicide for scum. It is much more likely that misguided town believes their case wholeheartedly and tunnels. In short, I don't like why he likes Tere as the lynch. There could be so many other reasons. Trfel had a case full.
He likes my idea of stepping back and looking at everything fresh. And gives us this big WoT post for it. But nothing has changed. So it's a bunch of nothing. He's been towning me but seems to raise a red flag on me for having a different rant. When did I rant outside of the Tere argument? He says Zlefin is towny because he sees how he can be town. Notices no one has scumread him since D1. That's a decent point, besides my early pressure vote on him. But he also says besides Silver. Huh. Why is that important? It's WIFOM. Does she scum him early to keep bussing options open as scum or to see if she can push him to a mislynch? It wants to lead you right down into the rabbit hole. Not helpful. JJB repeats himself and says he looks towny since D1 again. He's trying to appeal to the free townread towncred point I've mentioned before. Also mentions Zlefin hasn't "carried" town so he'd be a suspect if Palmar flips town. JJB falls right into that category, as well, but he acknowledges it. JJB tends to acknowledge his scummy moments a lot this game. It's as if he's watching his every move and making jokes about it to deflect.
He even goes a step further and lightly and jokingly cases himself. More WIFOM for Town to drown in. Finishes it off with he hasnt been scumread much. It's almost a challenge.
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3) It would've been nice if you had taken some time to actually read at least some of the thread with some sort of thoughts or scumhunting, btw.
4) There is something very plain and honest in the way Zlefin is sure of the Tere lynch and not willing to engage with the Tere/Palmar slot. I personally can relate to being a bit unsure of how to respond to replacements, especially when they replace the player that was in your eyes a clear cut lynch decision. It's similar to the tunneling I saw in Tere regarding Trfel. Zlefin has put what effort he can into this game, his filter has clear cut scumhunting examples and he actually directed us onto the Silver lynch quite early in voting.
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Responding to this and going to bed. I work 4 hours before EoD, I'll have my tablet with me. I bolded my responses under each point.
On February 22 2015 13:40 jarjarbinks wrote:
Saw that case on me by the Shining. I'll let him finish his case, but there were a few notes I would make mostly for the Shining:
1. This is confusing coming from you about my previous games. You've been in all my previous games. I don't have a "meta scum game".
Oy. I just caught what happened here. I was victim to formatting error, FFS. THIS IS WHY FORMATTING POSTS IS IMPORTANT. This is the only part of my case I'll rescind. Upon looking into it, I was talking about a post where it says your last scum game was Horn. That was Trfel's post I see now, not yours, but the formatting error confused the hell out of me.
PLEASE DISREGARD THAT PARAGRAPH.
2. You calling my Day 1 reads weak is also confusing coming from you. YOUVE BEEN IN ALL MY PREVIOUS GAMES. Think of a read I had that was actually strong in your opinion.
See, I don't like this. You're trying to appeal to a meta read from me instead of providing examples of consistent weak D1 reads. One thing I've learned here is that meta reads are inconsistent, especially in Newbie Games. Sure, it can help, but I personally do not invest much in it. Like you said, I've never seen a scum game of yours here on TL. You could very well play it exactly how you play Town. The point is, I DON'T KNOW and I'm not nearly confident enough to trust that alone.
3. This is sappy, be warned. I defended Hier mostly because I empathized with him. He came out with a strategy that say wasn't the best but it was different. He obviously was trying. Everyone comes down on him and makes him feel like trash. At one point I could have sworn you guys were going to get him to quit. And don't even think that he wouldn't, you guys already got two others to quit. In my first game on here, IN A NEWBIE GAME, you guys literally made me feel like crap.
Fair point. This can still come from either alignment and I've mentioned before that guilt in scum is not unheard of. This is an appeal to emotion and damn good guilt trip. But mafia is a game of deception in nature. This alone is far from alignment indicative.
4. In some places in your case, you insult my intelligence. In others, you make act like I can actually have a decent strategy. Please pick one.
More nothing. I never tried to paint you as "stupid" scum or "smart" scum. Just scum. This is an oddly defensive tone for things I didn't outright say.
5. I have played with you for 3 games. I've seen you constantly scumread anyone that scumreads you, especially day one. Granted, you can change your behavior, but that is why I defended you.
Ok, relying on meta again. Do you have any other concrete way of townreading me this game besides knowing exactly who is town as scum?
6. YOU'VE BEEN IN ALL MY GAMES! I ALWAYS CALL MY READS CRAP! Do you just ignore me in all my games? I just don't get it.
More meta referral. It's as if, in a Newbie Game, the third one we played together, he really thinks I'm confident enough to be sold on his town meta already. The other forum does not count. It is a completely different paced game, different meta, much slower pace. If you saw my posts over there, you wouldn't know it was me. It is very possible that scum JJB went in with the sole intention of trying to play exactly like town JJB. I can't use any of these meta points alone to townread you the way you can with me, sorry.
I'm sure you have a great case that you will spend hours on, and I'm glad you are scumhunting that much. But please think objectively. Stop trying to sell your case and post what you actually think about it.
I do, at least in my opinion. And you can see the hours spent on it from start to finish. Like I told Trfel, I want to win. And I have been thinking objectively. This took so long because I spent the first 24 hours running Zlefin, Trfel and Tere's filters through this same microscope. Yours came up dirtiest, by a long shot. And believe it or not, I believe in what I'm selling.
Realistically, I did all of this knowing it was a damn hard longshot to not see Palmar lynched today. However, the longer this sits here readily available for eyes to see should that mislynch occur, the better chances Town has of winning.
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Oh, 2 more things. My arguments are largely based directly on actions, interactions and post directly in this thread, easily accessible and linked. The defense is a bunch of meta points and references to past games. Objectively, it seems weak, at best.
Also, I mentioned before JJB's tone changed today. Just look at that post responding to my case, trying to head it off before I could continue with it. It's defensive and panicky. There is still a decent amount of time left before EoD, practically another irl day, and as far as thread sentiment, Zlefin doesn't look like he'll budge off of Palmar. JJB wasn't really at risk of being lynched today and is pretty jumpy about it.
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Not sure what you mean by tunneling. It's not like I think Tere is the only possibility for scum; just the likeliest, and by a large enough margin that new analysis won't (and hasn't as I read through your arguments, they may change my possibility of jjb being scum by +10% or so, but that's still nowhere near enough)
I have had some suspicions of jjb; and my plan remains as before, IF tere flips town, then I'll put in some serious looking and review his filter. I just don't want to spend oodles of time if the game is already over.
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That was actually super interesting,
Here's the thing. When I posted the question list last night, I already had an answer in mind, but not a definite one, I was simply going to eliminate two people based on my interactions and some mild observations.
Trfel is not the mafia here. He could be of course, but there are certain indicators he may not be.
a) don't underestimate the fact that he has like a 20 page filter, by far the longest of anyone still in the game. (I would like to note here that Tere was actually decently posty). This is of course not a definite tell, but generally it's a very useful clue to see how much time people are putting into posting.
b) Trfel is determined to lynch me as we started talking yesterday, but he is also extremely confident in his case to the point that he is willing to literally present it to me as broken down to my wishes because he is so confident I cannot pick holes in it, or will not pick holes in it.
The other person I was going to eliminate is zlefin because of his blind stubbornness. But this was before I noticed an early post from him that's making me waffle a bit.
You see he refuses to work with me, which of course can be mafia, but probably is a townie here. You see, the mafia KNOWS that this game won't be over after today, so basically treating me like crap means that it's more likely I'll treat him like trap or scumread him, leaving behind a confirmed townie who wanted to lynch him.
He seems to not care at all what I think of his approach in the game, which could indicate town.
The post that's making me insecure is this one:
On February 21 2015 19:54 zlefin wrote:
I've been well aware of that possibility.
But I still think the Tere slot is the best lynch for today.
If that lynch turns town, then I'll do a serious reconsideration of things.
Because this is the biggest indication that he thinks the game might go on longer than just today.
I don't quite know what to do with him at the moment. But when I wrote that "4 options" post last night, I had already decided to remove these two options, but I'm not quite ready to remove zlefin yet.
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EPT
