EPTMy initial concern was that Shining came in and scummed you for your opening and then left for a while. Didn't leave a good taste in my mouth. Your opening wasn't really that surprising to me at all lol he made later posts which I found much more towny when going through his filter, but I think my suspicions were more on the opening. I wasn't too confident in him being my #2 at the time so I read through his filter. Caused me to backtrack.
Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 82
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
My initial concern was that Shining came in and scummed you for your opening and then left for a while. Didn't leave a good taste in my mouth. Your opening wasn't really that surprising to me at all lol he made later posts which I found much more towny when going through his filter, but I think my suspicions were more on the opening. I wasn't too confident in him being my #2 at the time so I read through his filter. Caused me to backtrack. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 25 2015 09:07 Trfel wrote: Do you mean, you want a summary of how my reads developed over the course of the entire game?!?! o.O Hmm not exactly. Summaries aren't what I really want. More like categories of how confident you found them in comparison to others. Like I would have Tere hammered down as your strongest scumread and Rso as your strongest. Do two other get close to these categories? Or were you relatively torn about the others? How about this. I think you were considering Shining very towny end game. If I compared it to your thoughts about Rso, would you have considered your stance on them to be relatively similar? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I had Tere at a mild scumread for some time, and then I changed it to a mild townread when I found her behavior to be consistent and had town explanations for it. Then after Silverarte flipped, I changed my stance on Tere to a strong scumread. I guess you would have been at null or slight town for most of the game. Zlefin has generally stayed around null or slight town as well. Hier was null to slight scum. Elyas was slight town until his claim, when I would call him strong town (if he didn't die that would go down later, haha). Anything else? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm going to head out for a while, so hopefully that's enough for your analysis. I'll check back as soon as I can. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
jarjarbinks (1): zlefin zlefin (1): Trfel Not Voting (1): jarjarbinks Currently, jarjarbinks is set to be expelled from South Park Elementary. Day 4 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone. Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Zlef if you are around, please try to answer what Trf did about categories. I think I can generally make solid conclusions here, but I am prone to mistakes. Not giving you the opportunity to alleviate a mistake of mine would be biased and unfair. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
General Play: Tends to scumread the average person about 3.7 times compared to townreading them and about 3.4 times more than he defends himself. He made a total of 319 reads on people. People: Top people he made reads on (proportionally per phase) 1. Hier 2. Tere 3. Rso 4. Silver 5. Shining 6. JJB 7. Ely 8. Zlef The most interesting thing here is that his top two townreads and his scumread are all smack dab in the middle. His Scum/Townread Ratio: 1. Silver (19) 2. Tere (4.71) 3. Zlef (2) 4. Hier (1.33) 5. JJB (.95) 6. Ely (.83) 7. Rso (.6) 8. Shining (.52) Things that Bother Me (I admit this is weak, I’m struggling here): 1. Elyas was a top town read for him, yet he barely had to defend himself against Ely. He also made the second least amount of reads on him. Ely did turn doc, so he was right, but should he have been SO right? 2. Why does his read analysis look so good when the vote analysis says otherwise? 3. You could make a case about him hammering Silver. It’s beyond weak but it’s still a case you could make for bussing. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 25 2015 12:29 Trfel wrote: I didn't have ElyAs at a strong townread until he claimed. It would have been a weak townread until then. Did you have Shining/Tere as a higher Townread in D2 around the time Tere made her case on you? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Number of reads I had on Zlefin was 100. The way I counted reads was a little primitive. Later, I put the reads in categories to make a better analysis. Instead of summing up all the categories, I instead counted all the reads. I counted 100. Now after 1 day, I have 114 reads after summing up the categories instead. Nothing really changed, as most of these reads are on me and Trf, but I think I miscounted the 100. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I will move on to a conclusion, but I think just looking at the cases makes my conclusion pretty obvious lol | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 25 2015 12:59 jarjarbinks wrote: Yes to both.Did you have Shining/Tere as a higher Townread in D2 around the time Tere made her case on you? I need to go to sleep, sorry. I'll take another look at what you come up with tomorrow. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
General Play: Tends to scumread the average person about 2.35 times compared to townreading them and about 1.5 times more than he defends himself. He made a total of 114 reads on people. People: Top people he made reads on (proportionally per phase) 1. Hier 2. Silver 3. JJB 4. Tere 5. Trf 6. Rso 7. Shining 8. Ely I find many things interesting about this. First, look at the top four people, all the lynched people. Also, look at the bottom. His top scumread (at the time before his flip) and townread (at the time before his flip) are AT THE BOTTOM. His Scum/Townread Ratio: 1. Shining (4) 2. Trf (3.33) 3. Tere (3) 4. Ely (3) 5. Silver (2.33) 6. Me (1.14) 7. Rso (1) 8. Hier (1) Things that Bother Me (I feel this is much stronger): 1. I generally considered Hier to be on zlefin’s “top scum” list D1 with Rso on his “top town” list D1. Why did he read them the same way? 2. Why would Ely be his top scumread when he made the least amount of reads (per phase) on him? I know Ely wasn’t an active player, but still. 3. Silver was at about the average for the Scum/Townread Ratio, despite being his #2 target for making reads. Which means that he talked about silver a lot, but didn’t really lean to far one way or another (compared to average) on making silver look bad. If I could bold this point I would. It looks like he is making sure he is talking about silver enough, but not scumming her more than he should. Yet he bussed the vote. 4. His top four people (mentioned above) are all guys he wants to lynch. This shows that he isn’t really providing too many reads outside what he absolutely has to. A prime example to follow this up is Day 3 with killing Tere/Palmer. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 25 2015 13:02 Trfel wrote: Yes to both. I need to go to sleep, sorry. I'll take another look at what you come up with tomorrow. That is fine, I'm crashing when I finish. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Reasons for voting zlef: 1. As posted in my cases above, my read analysis puts zlef in a very incriminating light. 2. Also posted above, Trf looks beyond fantastic as town. He said in his filter that he could write books about why he's so town. My analysis agrees with that (even though my vote analysis doesn't). 3. I honestly don't think Trf could look this good with 319 reads. Call me a unbeliever of Trf's scum game, but it would be hard to look this good with 319 reads. Possible Concerns with My Analysis: 1. Zlef is less experienced than Trf, meaning he should look more incriminating. Factoring this in is hard, but I do not believe that this makes up for HOW MUCH worse he looks than Trf. 2. This analysis is new. I am bound to make it better by factoring things in, and help alleviate mistakes that could have been caused in this analysis. However, right now I think this thing is beyond golden. Granted if Trf flips scum, this analysis is complete garbage, but I'm really don't think he flips scum here. Look out Trf. If you truly are scum and you roll scum next game I play with you, you are in deep trouble lol 3. Zlef did look better in my vote analysis. | ||
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