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On February 25 2015 13:02 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2015 12:59 jarjarbinks wrote:On February 25 2015 12:29 Trfel wrote:
I didn't have ElyAs at a strong townread until he claimed. It would have been a weak townread until then. Did you have Shining/Tere as a higher Townread in D2 around the time Tere made her case on you? Yes to both. I need to go to sleep, sorry. I'll take another look at what you come up with tomorrow.
While I could make a case stating why it's hard for me to believe that you had Tere in a higher light, I will let that one go for now. Let's just say I could see why Tere would say that you were killing her ladyboner lol
I could see Shining higher than Ely at the time though.
If you could defend my point about you looking bad voting analysis wise, that would greatly help me. While my voting analysis hasn't worked in any of my games so far, I would like to think it does mean something and am still using it in this game to help weigh you and zlef.
Answer me this: Why does my voting analysis make you look worse than zlef (I explain it in my filter end of N3)? What kind of case could you make that proves that my voting analysis does not portray you accurately in this game?
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I'm off to bed. I will be back about 1-2 hours before EOD. Sorry if this puts things in a bad position, but after work I will come straight home to help answer questions and put general thoughts on Trf's cases. I can't say much to Zlef's to defend myself, so I won't unless he posts another case on me.
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On February 25 2015 13:05 jarjarbinks wrote:
Notes on Zlefin:
General Play: Tends to scumread the average person about 2.35 times compared to townreading them and about 1.5 times more than he defends himself. He made a total of 114 reads on people.
People: Top people he made reads on (proportionally per phase)
1. Hier
2. Silver
3. JJB
4. Tere
5. Trf
6. Rso
7. Shining
8. Ely
I find many things interesting about this. First, look at the top four people, all the lynched people. Also, look at the bottom. His top scumread (at the time before his flip) and townread (at the time before his flip) are AT THE BOTTOM.
His Scum/Townread Ratio:
1. Shining (4)
2. Trf (3.33)
3. Tere (3)
4. Ely (3)
5. Silver (2.33)
6. Me (1.14)
7. Rso (1)
8. Hier (1)
Things that Bother Me (I feel this is much stronger):
1. I generally considered Hier to be on zlefin’s “top scum” list D1 with Rso on his “top town” list D1. Why did he read them the same way?
2. Why would Ely be his top scumread when he made the least amount of reads (per phase) on him? I know Ely wasn’t an active player, but still.
3. Silver was at about the average for the Scum/Townread Ratio, despite being his #2 target for making reads. Which means that he talked about silver a lot, but didn’t really lean to far one way or another (compared to average) on making silver look bad. If I could bold this point I would. It looks like he is making sure he is talking about silver enough, but not scumming her more than he should. Yet he bussed the vote.
4. His top four people (mentioned above) are all guys he wants to lynch. This shows that he isn’t really providing too many reads outside what he absolutely has to. A prime example to follow this up is Day 3 with killing Tere/Palmer.
in response to 2: iirc I was reviewing the people I didn't have reads on, and Ely's filter was simply very weak and empty.
To what extent does the amount of reads on people vary by how many posts they make? Does a person who posts more get read more often? Does one person making reads on a person encourage others to make a read on that person? Not really relevant now I guess, but things to consider for your model.
1: I don't remember.
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On February 25 2015 12:21 jarjarbinks wrote:
Posting my case on Trf. I need to go back and fix zlefin's numbers since I last posted and make his case more clear.
Zlef if you are around, please try to answer what Trf did about categories. I think I can generally make solid conclusions here, but I am prone to mistakes. Not giving you the opportunity to alleviate a mistake of mine would be biased and unfair.
I'm unclear what you're asking for here, since you're asking it prior to your other new lengthy posts, so I'm not sure if those factored this in or not.
I'll reread the section to see if I can figure out what you're looking for.
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On February 25 2015 20:53 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2015 12:21 jarjarbinks wrote:
Posting my case on Trf. I need to go back and fix zlefin's numbers since I last posted and make his case more clear.
Zlef if you are around, please try to answer what Trf did about categories. I think I can generally make solid conclusions here, but I am prone to mistakes. Not giving you the opportunity to alleviate a mistake of mine would be biased and unfair. I'm unclear what you're asking for here, since you're asking it prior to your other new lengthy posts, so I'm not sure if those factored this in or not. I'll reread the section to see if I can figure out what you're looking for.
Ok, I think I found the question: it's about how my views varied over the course of the game?
in general I'd think the history of the points I posted would serve better than my memory for that (it's the ratios that matter most).
since night 2 my views have changed very little, just a mild boost to you jjb, that put you scummier than trfel (by a slight margin)
If you want more details than the history of the point system provides, I'll be on today to answer it.
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On February 25 2015 13:35 jarjarbinks wrote:
I'm off to bed. I will be back about 1-2 hours before EOD. Sorry if this puts things in a bad position, but after work I will come straight home to help answer questions and put general thoughts on Trf's cases. I can't say much to Zlef's to defend myself, so I won't unless he posts another case on me.
that's fine, it doesn't really matter unless one of you changes your vote.
You've already answered the cases well.
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A bit sad that we gonna lose, but I'm really more interested in whether I was right or not.
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Day 4 Vote Count
jarjarbinks (1): zlefin
zlefin (2): Trfel, jarjarbinks
Currently, zlefin is set to be expelled from South Park Elementary. Day 4 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00).
Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone.
Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain.
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Jarjarbinks, some questions for you.
Why is the case that I bused Silverarte weak?
Why does my read analysis look good? Just because of the large number of reads?
My usage of my vote is poor. I haven't been very good at using my vote to pressure, so I mostly just wait until I'm sure who I want to lynch and vote for them then.
Zlefin, in Night 3 you listed the percentages for each player being scum. With Palmar dead, I have the highest remaining percentage. Why did you not vote for me?
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Ugh, I'm going to reread everything. To both of you, I would really appreciate answers to the questions I asked in the above post.
I'll try to get back close to EOD, because otherwise I don't think I will be able to see jarjarbinks' answer. But if I don't make it back in time, I'm sorry.
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I have this feeling that the entire obs chat is yelling and screaming at me.......
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One thing I notice is that The Shining's point about jarjarbinks giving him an unwarranted townread because he was suspicious of him is false. The correct order of events is:
1. The Shining says that we should be suspicious of jarjarbinks
2. Jarjarbinks says that he is initially suspicious of The Shining
3. Jarjarbinks goes back through The Shining's filter, and then moves The Shining to a townread
With a reasonable amount of time between these posts, I see nothing wrong with this progression or a slight townread on The Shining at this time.
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On February 16 2015 13:43 Silverarte wrote:
Oh, side note.
Shining: I'm really reading null where Zlefin is at this moment. For a D1 lynch, I'm hesitant. Hrm.
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Zlefin, I believe that you said that you read all of the TL mafia guides. However, these guides also say that lynching for information is almost always a terrible idea. Several times on day 1 you mentioned lynching for information.
Please explain?
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On February 25 2015 23:59 Trfel wrote:
Jarjarbinks, some questions for you.
Why is the case that I bused Silverarte weak?
Why does my read analysis look good? Just because of the large number of reads?
My usage of my vote is poor. I haven't been very good at using my vote to pressure, so I mostly just wait until I'm sure who I want to lynch and vote for them then.
Zlefin, in Night 3 you listed the percentages for each player being scum. With Palmar dead, I have the highest remaining percentage. Why did you not vote for me?
Because of the case shining made on JJB; as well as the results of my review of the filters.
I thought I said in that post (or nearby) that those were the %'s I'd had from earlier (day3/N2), not the current ones (which would depend on the analysis of shining case and the new filter dives I hadn't done yet).
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On February 26 2015 01:31 Trfel wrote:
Zlefin, I believe that you said that you read all of the TL mafia guides. However, these guides also say that lynching for information is almost always a terrible idea. Several times on day 1 you mentioned lynching for information.
Please explain?
not all of them, some of them. And I read them quite awhile ago (maybe a year, maybe more, hard to say), so I probably forgot portions of them.
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Thank you very much for answering, zlefin.
This is rather frustrating. I'm on page 41 of my read through, and I'm still leaning a bit towards zlefin.
Zlefin, what are your thoughts on Jarjarbinks' vote switch at the end of Day 2?
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it looks only very slightly suspicious. Mostly it's just a reasonable shift from one target to another better, surer target.
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On February 25 2015 13:35 jarjarbinks wrote:
I'm off to bed. I will be back about 1-2 hours before EOD. Sorry if this puts things in a bad position, but after work I will come straight home to help answer questions and put general thoughts on Trf's cases. I can't say much to Zlef's to defend myself, so I won't unless he posts another case on me. Where you at?
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just got here and read up lol
I'm assuming I should answer your questions over comment on your case first?
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EPT
