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Silverarte
Profile Joined December 2014
115 Posts
February 17 2015 13:38 GMT
#641
Morning everyone! (I just woke up) Tere, I am more than happy to answer all of that for you if you'll give me a bit to get through your questions.

....also, for some reason I thought I posted the 'more to come'. Huh. Let me fix that too.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2015 13:39 GMT
#642
On February 17 2015 22:20 zlefin wrote:
I'm disliking that Tere keeps asking people for their top two kills without having said her own. Feels like probing for information to join a wagon without committing; I think someone else already noted this as a potential issue, but I forget who, and it's not where I thought it would be (in trfels analysis post).
I commented on it a few posts later.

I refuse to provide my top two kills until Tere actually does some scumhunting of her own. Scumhunting is one thing, but I am not going to scumhunt in the manner someone else tells me to for no reason.

Why do I think that Tere wants everyone to provide their top two kills? Maybe to know where everyone stands, maybe to choose the best night kill for the mafia. Either way, you can use someone's filter to mostly figure out where everyone stands, and I would prefer the emphasis to be on cases and scumhunting than making everyone share their top kills.

Note that the last time I saw someone make everyone share their top scumreads was when I was shadowing Artanis[Xp] in Imperial Mafia. He was mafia.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2015 13:40 GMT
#643
On February 17 2015 09:31 Tere wrote:
It would be awesome if the non Euros posted some reflections (and insomniac Euros).

The Shining, Silverarte, zlefin and ElyAs, I'd particularly like to hear from you. (Yes I know ElyAs is in France. Shut up).

Actually, I'd like to know everyone's top two scum picks right now. Cases would be awesome

Sleep tight! xx
Wait, Tere, this is your lynch pool?
Tere
Profile Joined February 2015
United Kingdom225 Posts
February 17 2015 13:43 GMT
#644
Yup.

There's an extremely good town related reason why someone might want to get a town consensus on scum reads during the night phase, and it's not that hard to figure out. Just saying

Anyway, out to this bloody boring meeting. Back later.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2015 13:52 GMT
#645
On February 17 2015 19:57 Tere wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2015 10:12 Trfel wrote:
One thing I'm thinking right now is that players who weren't really liking the Hier lynch are perhaps more likely to be scum. Knowing that Hier is in fact town, they could have been distancing themselves from the lynch by already knowing its result. A player who initially showed support for the lynch but later retracted this support would probably be the most suspicious.

I know that this category includes me, and that's fine. Obviously it isn't foolproof, but I will keep it in mind when I look through what happened.

I'm also going to be looking for people whose activity/scumhunting waned after we seemed set on a Hier lynch, since those people are more likely to be mafia.


OK, reading through post lynch. I went to bed almost straight after, FWIW.

With the first point, personally, I feel you are stretching a little there. I don't have an issue with indecision, and don't consider it a scum tell. It's very towny to be indecisive and change your reads and backtrack - I do it all the time. Yes, there's reasons that scum do it too, and distancing is one of them, but I wouldn't charge full pelt down the rabbit hole here.

I get the sense that you are continually misinterpreting what I say, both here and other places. I clearly don't mean that anyone doing these things is sure scum, since I myself am probably the first player who comes to mind when you think of these things (and no, I'm not calling myself scum). I still think that these things are likely things for a scum player to do, though obviously quite possible to come from town. You can't expect me to have a 100% way to catch mafia.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
February 17 2015 13:56 GMT
#646
On February 17 2015 22:43 Tere wrote:
Yup.

There's an extremely good town related reason why someone might want to get a town consensus on scum reads during the night phase, and it's not that hard to figure out. Just saying

Anyway, out to this bloody boring meeting. Back later.

that strikes me as rude. If you have a good reason, you should provide it. It feels like instead you want someone to come up with something that you can then say "yeah that was it", when you can't think of a good reason yourself.

Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
February 17 2015 13:57 GMT
#647
oh, and I'm dinging tere another point for the suspicions from here and trfel's analysis.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2015 14:01 GMT
#648
On February 17 2015 22:56 zlefin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2015 22:43 Tere wrote:
Yup.

There's an extremely good town related reason why someone might want to get a town consensus on scum reads during the night phase, and it's not that hard to figure out. Just saying

Anyway, out to this bloody boring meeting. Back later.

that strikes me as rude. If you have a good reason, you should provide it. It feels like instead you want someone to come up with something that you can then say "yeah that was it", when you can't think of a good reason yourself.

To be fair, Tere is right, there are plenty of good reasons. There are also several bad ones. While the bad generally outweighs the good, I would still prefer people to play the game as they see fit. If they only have one scumread, so be it. If they have three, so be it. I am more interested in seeing reasoning than lists, as this seems to encourage. I almost feel that constantly badgering everyone for two scumreads gets in the way more than it helps.

On the bright side, it's a really nice way for Tere to look productive without scumhunting.
Silverarte
Profile Joined December 2014
115 Posts
February 17 2015 14:11 GMT
#649
Jarjar: he's been getting in there and participating. I think that really, there should be a note here that he didn't tunnel with the rest of us on Hier. I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing.

And Tere if I had two top shoots?

You and probably Zlefin at this point. I'll address Zlefin in my next post, but in the meantime? Tere?

On February 17 2015 22:39 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2015 22:20 zlefin wrote:
I'm disliking that Tere keeps asking people for their top two kills without having said her own. Feels like probing for information to join a wagon without committing; I think someone else already noted this as a potential issue, but I forget who, and it's not where I thought it would be (in trfels analysis post).
I commented on it a few posts later.

I refuse to provide my top two kills until Tere actually does some scumhunting of her own. Scumhunting is one thing, but I am not going to scumhunt in the manner someone else tells me to for no reason.

Why do I think that Tere wants everyone to provide their top two kills? Maybe to know where everyone stands, maybe to choose the best night kill for the mafia. Either way, you can use someone's filter to mostly figure out where everyone stands, and I would prefer the emphasis to be on cases and scumhunting than making everyone share their top kills.

Note that the last time I saw someone make everyone share their top scumreads was when I was shadowing Artanis[Xp] in Imperial Mafia. He was mafia.


I'm only popping this up but I can find other instances as well of the similar complaint on the lines of "Wait! you want us to provide, but you won't?" There might be a legitimate reason for this. I'm sure there is! But really, this is still suspicious to me.

Now, reviewing everything...why do I see more of the above, rather than scum hunting?
Silverarte
Profile Joined December 2014
115 Posts
February 17 2015 14:12 GMT
#650
....Trfel. You are in my head. And it's kinda creepy. (ALso, darn you F5 and my not hitting you before posting!)
Silverarte
Profile Joined December 2014
115 Posts
February 17 2015 14:16 GMT
#651
On February 16 2015 21:14 zlefin wrote:
Ok, I've reviewed the thread to date, and here's the score sheet I keep with my running tally estimates on town/scumminess, positive numbers are town, negative numbers are scum; the denominator represents the number of total read points for that person. i.e. each time I get a feel, I add or subtract one from the ongoing tally.

Trfel 1/1
Shining
rsoultin 1/1
elyas
jarjar -2/2
mimeux
hier 0/2
silver

with mimeux out, and his replacement not yet in, I don't expect to get enough information on the replacement to have a read on them by voting time.
I remain concerned about silver having no posts on the first real life day, and overall activity level.

Now I gotta go back, find jarjars question to answer it, and then maybe review the people I don't have any read on to see if I can find something.
my current lynch candidates are jarjar, hier, silver, trfel.
The reason for trfel is that I feel trfel is a high information lynch. If he's scum, he's a skilled scum; and there's a lot of discussion between trfel and others, if I could go back through those discussions with the lynch knowledge of his alignment, I think that would provide a lot of other leads one way or the other. I think it would provide more information than anyone else's lynch.

I'm all for the jumping in and reading here. I feel Zlefin did an ok job with trying to get in there....but...
On February 16 2015 23:07 zlefin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2015 22:39 Silverarte wrote:
Sorry friends, I completely fell asleep last night ><

On February 16 2015 15:05 Trfel wrote:
On February 16 2015 14:59 rsoultin wrote:
On February 16 2015 14:57 Trfel wrote:
On February 16 2015 14:54 rsoultin wrote:
On February 16 2015 14:53 Hier wrote:
By the way, for the sake of pronoun consistency, as I understand it, rsoultin, The Shining, and Mimeux are women, and the rest are men. Is that right? Apologies if I am making a mistake.


Shining is male. It's like "The Shining" with Jack Nicholson. Not relevant, but lol, I'm sure he's tired of being called a woman ^^

Ok good, I was scared for a second.

Who else is female then? Now that it has been brought up, I'm scared that I am wrong.....


Far as I know just silver and I, since mime is being replaced. I love how this thread has derailed xP

Ok good, I thought it was Silverarte.

Hier, any thoughts you have on the thread are appreciated. Even if you want to post a huge wall of null reads, I would appreciate that (rsoultin and The Shining would probably start screaming for your head, but I would look at the content first...). I'm sure that rsoultin would let up on you for the moment if you provide some content and scumhunting to the thread.

Though I do need to reread my comments on The Shining in the morning, if anyone wanted to comment on The Shining (with or without reference to my comments), that would be appreciated.

Good night.
I'll take the sleepiness into account Trfel. Though, when you're around again, let me know what you think without all of the sleepiness there?

As far as Shining goes, I can see your point. I didn't see what made the case on Zlefin, particularly since Zle's filter looked null to me at that time. I'd say the oddest thing to me here is that you being potentially scumread for walls of text. Those make it hard to read sometimes true, but I proved my only other game then and now that I do those too.

Personally, I'd like to see more from Shining. I saw where you are coming from, but I don't feel he's a D1 lynch. And actually, I'd like to see everyone's thought here too.

@zlefin I appreciate the concern about activity and all that, but remember. I live in the US and I posted my schedule up. On Saturdays, I work for ten hours then went out for Valentines out here. While I appreciate activity might signify something, at the same time, understanding for the holiday I feel should be in there somewhere too.
Now, that said and behind us, my question for you is this. The scumread list you gave, can I ask what gives you the thoughts that Jarjar and Hier are on the lynch list. Also, if I'm reading the way you have that list right, Rsoultin is on the lynch list too, is that correct? (It's the points I'm trying to sort out).

rsoultin is not on my lynch list, the lynch list was separate and later in the post. The points are positive indicate town reads, negative is scum reads. denominator is total reads one way or the other.
I don't maintain a list of where each point comes from, though reasons for the majority of them will be somewhere in my filter with me saying something; others are more impressions over several posts or a large discussion. I suppose I should be more thorough in tracking them.

I am giving some understanding for holiday, but it still seems odd to not find the time to put in a post or two even if you can't do a full thread read. I'm a person with plenty of time, so I tend to view others through the same lens.

And I clearly misread the intial post with the points. However, I don't believe I ever got an answer to my questions. While we received answers in the ways of other posts the closer we got to the EOD (end of day, right?), I don't see how he particularly was engaged til significantly later after Tere jumped on board.

That said, most of the involvement when it comes to 'original thought' centers on the point totals. I can appreciate the tracking system and its organization, but I'm floundering at the lack of detail, reasoning and the 'look through my filter' for the answers.

Point totals are great, but while this can be used for 'pressure' it's not explanatory. I'm hesitant to follow something where - while it's clear it's working for Zle, where is the explanations/support/reasoning outside of "I feel this."

Zlefin, would you mind clarifying for me?

On February 15 2015 22:58 zlefin wrote:
I can't explain my reads well, they're only quite mild reads at this point.

For Trfel, it's partly a tonal read, and partly that he's encouraging discussion and trying to get things going. So he's either town, or a well-played (and hence dangerous) scum.

For jarjar, it's just an impression, I can't really explain why.

I know this is from when you started with us, but is this still the case?
Silverarte
Profile Joined December 2014
115 Posts
February 17 2015 14:16 GMT
#652
ok, doc appointment. Off I go! Hopefully back soon. =D
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2015 14:25 GMT
#653
This is a response to Tere's response to my case on her. I will not quote the post in question, as it is rather long. The bullet points correspond to the bullet points in my original case, which correspond to the part of Tere's post that I am answering (if you look at Tere's post, it makes sense).

I will preface this by saying that for a mafia player to put themselves in a position where there is no possible town explanation for their actions, they have to really, really, really screw up. There will basically never be a time where you will get a case on mafia (excluding roles/setup/strong vote case) that can't be explained away. The question is, how much suspicion is there, and how reasonable is the explanation.
  • My first point, about your experience level. I'm not saying that I expect Tere to be amazing. I'm not saying that Tere needs to know everything. I'm not intimidated by Tere. My point is merely that Tere has a reasonable idea of how the game works, and I don't think she can argue that. Basically, I'm saying that I believe it is fair to hold Tere to similar standards that I hold myself to. The points I make in the rest of the post are things that I would hold against myself, therefore I will also hold them against Tere.

  • There is nothing inherently wrong with only saying things that have already been said. However, it is possible to do this instead of scumhunting. It's a small suspicion, which is meaningless on its own, but small suspicions do add up.

  • Tere's point provides a valid explanation, but I don't fully accept it. Tere's tone turned against Hier very quickly from when he started posting, and if she really wanted to give Hier a chance (as indicated by her desire to find counterwagons) she would not have changed views so quickly. Hier never said that he wasn't going to make reads, in fact, he already made a read on rsoultin. Say what you want about the quality of the read, but he was at the very least pretending to scumhunt, which casts a lot of doubt on your sentence here: "I was really bothered about Hier's insistence that he wasn't going to do reads and was going to stick to his model."

  • Tere says she is excited for not having to do the heavy lifting. Well, if she are town, that isn't true. Town mislynched on Day 1, and if we mislynch two more times, we lose. Everyone needs to go filter diving, even those who are posting a lot. Tere's large number of posts doesn't mean that she is scumhunting, it just means that she has posted a lot.

  • On some level, it is usually easier to townread more experienced players. I feel that rsoultin and I are at that level where we are a more easy townread then we were when we started playing (note that at the level of someone like Holyflare, this falls apart entirely because the scumgame is too strong, but at this level it mostly works). And I understand Tere's reasoning for townreading me (Trfel) and rsoultin. All the same, critical thinking should allow you to townread some of the newest players as well. And I didn't see an indication of this in Tere's posts.

  • Nothing to say about this.
I'm not even necessarily advocating lynching Tere. My point is that town needs to keep a close eye on her, and she shouldn't be instantly townread like she was earlier in the game. Whether or not Tere should be lynched on Day 2 depends on how the events of the next 48+ hours go. I just feel that it is a major oversight to not be suspicious of Tere at this time.

Tere, given these events, I don't think you can argue that you shouldn't be given some suspicion. Accept it and move on. Of course you can provide a logical town explanation, but if that criteria was used, town would basically never lynch anyone.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2015 14:28 GMT
#654
Zlefin, I hope you can understand why people are skeptical of your list. It would be extremely nice if in the future, you could keep a list of why you read people as the alignment that you do for the individual points. This is also helpful for you, because if you decide that someone is scum, you can use these lists to quickly show why they are scum.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
February 17 2015 14:32 GMT
#655
Responding to Silverarte post (without quoting cuz it's long)
The point totals are not something anyone else is meant to follow, it's simply letting people know where I'm at. I made the totals for myself, to help me keep track of my thoughts a little. I post them simply because it's very easy to copy/paste it and information tends to be good for town, and there's no issue with spam in these games in general, so I may as well post it in addition to whatever else I'm doing.


As to what is now the case, well, my initial reads still are what they were; I don't get new reads on people of any sort very often. The most new reads are on Tere for the reasons I mentioned a bit ago (I assume it's so recent you don't need a reminder).

I don't think I've been getting new tonal reads on people. (my memory could of course be faulty, as I don't keep timelapse data on my point system).

What other clarifications would you like?
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
February 17 2015 14:35 GMT
#656
On February 17 2015 23:28 Trfel wrote:
Zlefin, I hope you can understand why people are skeptical of your list. It would be extremely nice if in the future, you could keep a list of why you read people as the alignment that you do for the individual points. This is also helpful for you, because if you decide that someone is scum, you can use these lists to quickly show why they are scum.

I will try to be a little more detailed. But the points again are really more for my own use than for others, and I only copy/paste because it's easy to do so.

Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2015 14:41 GMT
#657
On February 17 2015 23:35 zlefin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2015 23:28 Trfel wrote:
Zlefin, I hope you can understand why people are skeptical of your list. It would be extremely nice if in the future, you could keep a list of why you read people as the alignment that you do for the individual points. This is also helpful for you, because if you decide that someone is scum, you can use these lists to quickly show why they are scum.

I will try to be a little more detailed. But the points again are really more for my own use than for others, and I only copy/paste because it's easy to do so.

You do realize that you are at the top of most people's suspicions, right?

Unfortunately, at the moment you are probably the top Day 2 lynch candidate. Fortunately for you, there is a lot of time to change this.

Explaining where you get your reads is crucial for not being lynched, as without that there is absolutely no way for town to know if you are actually scumhunting or not. In addition, the more explanation you provide, it promotes more discussion, which is good.

You can't be expected to solve the game by yourself, I am under the impression that even the very, very best players would have trouble doing so. Thus, we really appreciate hearing your thoughts, and simply seeing an unexplained tally of who you feel is scummy doesn't really help.

I really need to do some homework. I'll check in later today.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
February 17 2015 14:48 GMT
#658
I do realize that, but there's only so much I can do about that. I already explained my reads as best I could, often there wasn't anything I could point to back it up, it was just my impression. It is what it is and I can't change that. If people don't want to believe that I can't help that.

If I had thoughts I'd share them, and I have. Often I just don't. I can't give you what isn't there.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2015 14:55 GMT
#659
On February 17 2015 23:48 zlefin wrote:
I do realize that, but there's only so much I can do about that. I already explained my reads as best I could, often there wasn't anything I could point to back it up, it was just my impression. It is what it is and I can't change that. If people don't want to believe that I can't help that.

If I had thoughts I'd share them, and I have. Often I just don't. I can't give you what isn't there.
Do you mind maybe taking a look at someone's filter and recording your thoughts as you go through, and then posting all of your thoughts and your conclusion?
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
February 17 2015 15:01 GMT
#660
I'll consider that, I might mind it yes. I do and have looked through people's filters, but often nothing comes to mind.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
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