EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 41
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2015 14:08 jarjarbinks wrote: I can see where you are coming from, though I don't necessarily agree with everything in this post.Lol Despite not agreeing with a lot of things you have said, your have definitely shown the most effort in scumhunting to this point. I was there in your last scumgame and if you are scum then this is massive improvement. Like beyond massive. There were some actions you took that I disapprove of (#1 being your actions EOD on D1, but you at least were around at the end), but since then you have honestly been scumhunting and scumhunting hard. I'd be blind not to see that lol Your argument was a subset of that. Some of your reads weren't exactly strong. If you voted Tere based off your argument I wouldn't join. I want to see what her plan that she was talking about is. I also want to see her reaction to all of these scumreads. But the amount of effort you took in making it strengthen's your case for being town. Seriously, thank you so much for being willing to go over all this with me. It's super helpful. I know my tone hasn't been the greatest, I'm a bit frustrated at the game in general, I'll try to come back tomorrow with a clear mind. Good night jarjarbinks, thanks for sharing your thoughts. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I see this two ways: 1: Distances himself. Makes an easy but decent case on zfelin. Talks about maybe Tere being bad, but doesn't really muster an argument. Looks like he's scumhunting when isn't. 2: Actually believes what he says. Waffles on Hier. Makes an easy but decent case on Zfelin and realizes its not super strong. Moves on to Tere, but doesn't make a case due to Shining switching. This is definitely possible, my only problem with this outlook is that Elyas' case on Tere seems lacking compared to the other two cases he already made. The points ring a bit, but do you see how it has less effort? I'll attach it below this post as I still suck at formatting lol Obviously I originally thought #1 was more likely. Maybe I'm wrong. Let me know your thoughts. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 18 2015 02:38 ElyAs wrote: First, I've been following from my intention to check Hier's posts on Tere. Tere did vote for Hier really fast, but this is where I think I'm drowning in WIFOM. Would a newcomer mafia autovote on such an obvious wagon ? At that point the count was : 3 votes for Hier and quite the pressure building on him. I don't know where this train of thought is leading me, though. Tere's case on Hier is also mostly stuff we have said about Hier, be it rsoultin's case or the OMGUSy vote. I'm not sold on this, but I'm adding Tere on my lynch pool. I think rsoultin's case on Hier was good and Hier's vote for rsoultin was misguided. I think you're town, rsoultin, and I really hope it's the case, because if you're scum you're gonna be hard to catch :p This was the case I was mentioning. Maybe Elyas didn't get too far in his Tere case before the Shining switch, then gave up and looked at Tere fresh before this post. Still this case seems worse than the other two he made. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2015 14:23 jarjarbinks wrote: I'm sorry, I'm a bit distracted because I think I found something extremely interesting. Unfortunately, it will take some time before I can share, and it's quite likely that I will be proved completely wrong, so no guarantees that you will hear about it again.The multiple posts that "distance" himself from Hier is what got me bent on Elyas being scum. What do you think about those? I count about 3 different distance posts. I see this two ways: 1: Distances himself. Makes an easy but decent case on zfelin. Talks about maybe Tere being bad, but doesn't really muster an argument. Looks like he's scumhunting when isn't. 2: Actually believes what he says. Waffles on Hier. Makes an easy but decent case on Zfelin and realizes its not super strong. Moves on to Tere, but doesn't make a case due to Shining switching. This is definitely possible, my only problem with this outlook is that Elyas' case on Tere seems lacking compared to the other two cases he already made. The points ring a bit, but do you see how it has less effort? I'll attach it below this post as I still suck at formatting lol Obviously I originally thought #1 was more likely. Maybe I'm wrong. Let me know your thoughts. I see ElyAs' play at End of Day as more like option 2. He stated early on that he was unsure about the Hier lynch. I know it can look scummy, but by no means is it a sure tell (heck, I do that every lynch, if you don't believe me rsoultin already stated that). Maybe his case on Tere took less effort, but that doesn't make him scum. I'll take another look, but I remember his reasoning being acceptable, and that's really what matters. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2015 14:27 jarjarbinks wrote: Though this is definitely something to ask about.This was the case I was mentioning. Maybe Elyas didn't get too far in his Tere case before the Shining switch, then gave up and looked at Tere fresh before this post. Still this case seems worse than the other two he made. A few questions for ElyAs What do you mean by your lynch pool? Is that the people you would be willing to lynch right now, or the pool of potential lynch candidates, or what? Any comments on jarjarbinks' observation that this case seems to have taken less effort than your other cases? Thanks! | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 17 2015 23:11 Silverarte wrote: I'm only popping this up but I can find other instances as well of the similar complaint on the lines of "Wait! you want us to provide, but you won't?" There might be a legitimate reason for this. I'm sure there is! But really, this is still suspicious to me. Now, reviewing everything...why do I see more of the above, rather than scum hunting? On February 18 2015 04:02 Silverarte wrote: Hrmph.Woo! Back! How's it going so far? Also, so far, what is everyone's top? Rather than two bullets, how about one? Looks like I'll be going to bed soon, so good night all. Or I suppose, good morning to the majority. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 18 2015 09:02 Trfel wrote: Well, I'm still alive. That's interesting. I wonder if that means I'm completely off track. Or if it means that someone on the mafia team is cruel and wants to torture me. Rsoultin, I'll take a look at your filter and your reads. I still think that we are mostly in the same place, though. completely off track about what? Note: I'm responding to some things as I read the thread to get up to date, so if something was already answered, responses will not be needed. | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
On February 18 2015 14:50 Trfel wrote: Though this is definitely something to ask about. A few questions for ElyAs What do you mean by your lynch pool? Is that the people you would be willing to lynch right now, or the pool of potential lynch candidates, or what? Any comments on jarjarbinks' observation that this case seems to have taken less effort than your other cases? Thanks! My lynch pool is people I'm watching closely, and I'd be willing to lynch for day 2. I agree that my case on Tere took less effort than my other cases because I found few inconsistencies while skimming her filter, and was pressed by time due to RL issues (had a guest, so I only posted short posts afterwards.) I do believe, however, that rsoultin's death holds a meaning, more on this on my next post. | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
On February 18 2015 09:12 Trfel wrote: Sorry for the post spam. My thoughts are coming more randomly at the moment. Part of me is wondering if rsoultin was killed to help hide a mafia!jarjarbinks. I'm not at all confident in reading a Day 2 jarjarbinks, in the past I've just used rsoultin for that read. Still, though, rsoultin seemed pretty convinced that jarjarbinks is town, so I guess I'll work with that for now. This post got me thinking. We are in a newbie game so I'll take this in the level zero of mindgames, which means no mindgames, this lynch has a purpose which is not to deceive us. Silverarte and jarjarbinks know rsoultin well. They know that town rsoultin is a strong player and she knows their playstyle. It's not enough to scream scum imo, but I'm willing to check their filter once again for inconsistencies in their train of thought. In short, this is not a case yet, these are just my thoughts. As Trfel noted, I'm a mafia rookie and I lack the confidence to be pushing a case off just this detail. But if I find something good, I'll build a case. | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
Killing a confirmed town is just plain good for scum in general, since it makes the lynch pool harder. | ||
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Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
Important point: IF ANYONE IS THINKING OF CLAIMING BASED ON WHAT I AM DOING PLEASE DON'T UNTIL I HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TYPE ALL THIS UP K THANKS First off, vote analysis Day 1: Hier wagon: rsoul's first on with a decent yolo wagon start. Looked towny at the time, and lo, so she was. Silverarte's next on, after a succession of prodding posts at Hier about his lack of reads. The progression to the vote looks very unforced and natural to me, and town points I think. Have a look for yourself: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=15#294 ElyAs and I are next on, almost at the same time - if you look I reference his vote post in passing on my own, as I saw it whilst preparing my own post. ElyAs posts what looks very much like a placeholder vote on Hier - his main points being his confusing language, also picked up on at that point by zlefin, and some concern that the model is sowing chaos not spreading it. He says he will revisit once Hier starts looking at somebody else. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=16#301 This doesn't really happen, most of the rest of his filter till EOD is saying he doesn't like the vote but not really offering counterwagons. Tere: I'm next up. My main bones of contention with Hier is not his model per se, but his insistence that he will stick to it regardless, an easy thing to hide behind for scum, and his lack of willingness to provide reads. While I indicate the need for a counterwagon, I'm reasonably confident in my scumread, particularly when he comes back into thread and doesn't start being helpful. I stay on him till EOD. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=16#307 Trfel starts off more ambivalent on Hier, moving to a flash of irritation with him at his lack of reads here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=13#250, with a bit more followup here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=14#276 He pops down his vote on Hier after quite a lot of angst about mislynching and lack of counterwagons before popping a placeholder vote on Hier in case he isn't back at deadline, torturing himself about it until Nightfall. The flow of it all plus my more general read on him look like angsting town to me. zlefin's next. Completely new player, remember? His initial lynchpool based on his plus/ minus system is jarjar, hier, silver (for inactivity), and trfel. He thinks he should lynch trfel for info. Wonky reasoning IMO but new player. Note he says he's giving my slot a free pass until N1. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=15#290 He leans more to voting Hier later on http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=18#347. Later posts about trfel indicate that he's still thinking about lynching in terms of lynching for information - this isn't a scumtell to me, just a new player tell. (@zlefin it's not always a horribad idea in larger games IMO, but in a 7 v 2 game you are struggling with having minimal mislynches). He's moving towards voting for Hier here but aware it's a vote that doesn't contribute much and is probing as to what would give better information: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=22#436 - a couple of folk have found that scummy I think, but I actually find that reaching out quite towny. Finally votes Hier as he needs sleep. All in all I think that looks OK for a new player, I am not seeing the scummy in that. The Shining: pushes a fairly weak read in zlefin a little here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=10#183, asks why no-one is responding to it. There's a defensive post that he and zlef couldn't be scumbuddies here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=13#242 then lays a vote on him for what I see as fairly weak reasons here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=13#245. He unvotes when he returns to thread, mainly concerning himself with a defence against Trfel's case, then votes Hier at the last minute, saying he's sheeping his strongest townread, later clarified as rsoul. Weaksauce. OK - I think the people on that wagon who look like town are rsoul (flipped), Silverarte, Trfel, and zlefin. I know I am town, although clearly some people have some sort of problem with me jumping straight in with a vote and rationale on Hier. I think a case based on that is quite lame, if I'm honest - I was reading the game anyway, and I received the request to sub in at 4.30 a.m. my time, had a few hours that I used to reread and think through my initial reactions, and was simply waiting until I received my PM to place my main scumread. I would also point out that I was highly unlikely to be the Day 1 lynch, I'd already been given a pass by one person in the thread, and it would have been easy as pie as scum to say in the thread "hi guyz, sorry I can't catch up in the next few hours, gl have fun see you N1" and get a free pass. Charging in and putting oneself in the midst of the fray with less than 9 hours to go before nightfall doesn't play to a scum wincon, and I honestly don't know what to say to you if you think it does. Putting myself aside, the two people I think have weaker voting behaviour there are ElyAs (a placeholder vote which he never gets back to really) and The Shining (weak push on a new player that's easy meat, late move to Hier saying he's sheeping his main wagon). Really dude? Really? (Please also note the The Shining says rsoultin is his main townread here when thinking about the NK, also). zlefin's wagon: Poor lonely Jarjar!  He says zlef needs to do a bit more here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=12#223, there's a couple more brief mentions that he wants to see more reads and then he probes zlef for answers and tries to reach out to him here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=12#239. He seems to feel a bit better about him here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=20#385. He doesn't like that he's got a -2 in zlef's points system (seems very personality indicative for jarjar given he's a numbers guy) then votes for zlef giving case here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=20#399. That looks like a decent case from a jarjar perspective, I can totally grok that he's not into tonal reads given his very different approach. He registers some discomfort with the size of Hier's wagon, indicates a willingness to shift if needed. He restates his position, which looks decent again from his perspective http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=28#550 - I particularly like his discomfort at being the lonely person on the wagon.OK, all of that looks very towny to me - fits his play and his previous town game to a T, and I really understand the mental progression here. I can't mindmeld with jarjar as he plays such a different way to me, but I can understand how this makes sense from the perspective of a town jarjar. Conclusion: From all that, the most town unfriendly votes for me are ElyAs and The Shining. | ||
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Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
It will become clear I'm serious about this when I get to my suggestion as to what we do today in a bit. Onwards. | ||
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Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
Rsoultin was killed by a Minecraft Creeper. I've never watched South Park (Shut up, I know, lol) and I can't really determine much flavour to help us see if it's the scum kill or a vig but in the absence of a vig claim (and a vig on rsoul would have been bonkers IMO) I think we go with it being the scum kill. Doesn't look like TL Mafia uses much flavour analysis to help with newbie games anyway, it's more just a bit of fun. (BTW, I think it's hilarious that all the Vanilla Towns are Kenny, well played :D) I'm actually not going to say too much about this as I don't particularly want to get bogged down with it - NKs can generate immense amounts of wifom. Reasons that rsoultin might have been the NK. 1. The simplest and most obvious one - rsoultin was I think reading the most towny to pretty much all of us apart from Hier. Certainly Hier's attempt at a wagon got absolutely no traction. Occam's would suggest that, and it basically gives us no lean on scum. Interestingly The Shining does make it clear that she's his strongest townread and sheeps her. 2. Someone in rsoultin's friendship group is scared of her sussing them out. This would appear to be a smaller group of jarjarbinks, Silverarte and The Shining. I haven't gone back and looked at her filter in depth yet, but from memory the only one of that group she expressed doubt on was the Shining. 3. Rsoul caught other scum and it was a fearkill. Unlikely, I don't remember other strong reads from her if I'm honest. Her will was posted very late so scum wouldn't have had time to react. I can't recall the timing requirements for night actions offhand but I imagine there's a set time beforehand they have to be in by. 4. Scum want to push for a lynch on me today, and Rsoul was my strongest supporter. It's possible, but if so I really don't care. Why will become apparent when I post today's suggested plan. I did note The Shining's push against Trfel as being the likely source of the NK and thought that was very interesting. I don't really feel the need to get into that right now, save to say that I think Trfel's defence of that holds water. Interesting that The Shining pushed it though. So it's 1 or 2 for me. Not much info to glean from that IMO. It's worth a look back at rsoul's filter if you are unsure. I may do that later. | ||
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Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
##vote Tere (I need to leave now, but that's left a bit ambiguous for a reason) | ||
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Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
Onwards. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 18 2015 02:05 zlefin wrote: Do others concur with rsoultin's description of JJB? I ask because I don't want to base any changes entirely off this in the unlikely event the two of them are mafia. If others concur with the description, I'm going to give a positive point to JJB, based on rsoultins comments in the last page, which also help reassess JJBs early game (in particular his joke which I didn't like, more info on its normalcy for him ameliorates it). since rsoul flipped town, I'm gonna go ahead and give JJB his +1 town point for this. I think there was some discussion from others sorta confirming it, but I wasn't entirely sure about the confirmation, and I recently remembered I never scored/addressed it further; but now that I know rsoul is town, I'm fine with giving JJB the point. | ||
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Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
First off, I am not claiming anything right now, and don't intend to as yet, as claiming my role would be detrimental to town. If that generates into a bunch of meaningless WIFOM that kills the thread and nothing will get done until you stop yelling at me I will, but I can assure you that outing my role won't be town helpful and I won't do that unless forced to. Important point repeated again: IF ANYONE IS THINKING OF CLAIMING BASED ON WHAT I AM DOING PLEASE DON'T. Claim for your own reasons, for sure, but don't claim because of my activities. I will, however, answer the question on why I mixed things up in nightchat and poked everyone for their two scumreads. 1. The easy bit first. Hi, I'm Tere. My meta this game is super aggro town, if you don't believe me now, you will on my flip. Scum are susceptible to WIFOM too. I love annoying scum. Hi scum! 2. I've been accused of not scumhunting. Well, for me this is some scumhunting activity. Scum really don't like to be tied down to decisive positions, in general. I'm almost less bothered by the actual answer than the attitude towards giving an answer. To me a major town tell is a relaxed position and a willingness to give reads and be flexible about them. There's a freedom and spontaneity to playing town and giving opinions that isn't there with scum, as the wincon is so different. Town can play offensive, scum, of necessity, need to have a defensive element to them. What I'm looking for here is a relaxed approach to giving opinions. Scum have to watch being caught out. Town don't need to do that. (n.b. if anyone who is town lynches me based on the terribad reason that Hier placed a vote on me, I am going to laugh at you in post game. Dead town don't gain powers of oracle infallibility, and Hier's proven misread on rsoultin should demonstrate that). So, what did I find out, and what do I think about it? (Here's where my play starts, with my current lynchpool at the time. I plop it in and head to bed, more or less: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=29#577. I push it again when I get up here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=32#623) zlefin: Tere and Jarjar http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=32#628 I really like this response, it comes very quickly, only 20 mins after I poke him directly seeing him in thread, and feels very unforced. Town points to zlefin here. His poking at me about WTF I am doing feels OK too: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=32#637 silverarte: Tere and zlefin. Silver feels relaxed in the way she produces these options, and posts a decent rebuttal of why she doesn't want to be asked. It doesn't feel defensive or forced. This looks OK here. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=33#649 I like her asking why not one bullet a bit less, as the results show, I have good reasons for asking for two reads apart from there being two scum less, and just one read wouldn't have given me anywhere as near as much information. But it's not enough for me to see that as a scumtell. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=36#715 Trfel: No answer - Trfel starts out by expressing confusion at WTF I am doing and why I hadn't done it myself here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=31#614 (as an aside, please don't scumread me for being asleep fairly soon after day and night ends that end at midnight my time, that would be lovely). He then posts his discomfort and thinks I am fishing in order that I can place the kills (because he's seen Artanis do this as mafia) here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=33#642. He scumreads me a little more strongly for this here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=33#648. There's some form of impenetrable chat with rsoultin about a point on an observation board somewhere, which Trfel will need to explain if he's convinced that whatever is on that board is relevant, but after further thought he seems to discount it. His response to me saying he really doesn't want to play looks OK, though, calm, measured - he's not lost down a rabbit hole somewhere. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=35#687 He never answers but hislast will and testament puts lynchpool at Tere, ElyAs, Silverarte (maybe jarjar) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=38#749 On the face of it the refusal looks bad but I think the way he handles it looks OK. He's clearly worrying about some game I have no meta for so meh. I can't see why it would be so OMG critical to get two names out for scum and certainly I wouldn't need to do so to place a NK. It's not inherently scummy, he's just got his knickers in a twist about something. rsoultin: No answer - she grasps what I am doing I think, tells me to put my big girl pants on  I really liked the relaxed tone from her, and lo, she flips town as the nightkill. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=34#661 Also, sod off with the deliberately condescending, lady N.B. rsoultin puts ElyAs as her top scumread in her farewell post and I for one, would be happy to oblige her with that ElyAs: Tere and zlefin http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=36#711 . I don't really like this as much - he's deliberately distancing himself while giving the reads and does so further when I point out immediately after that I was voting and posting at basically the same point as him on the bandwagon. Tere: The Shining and ElyAs. I get bored with waiting on The Shining and post my WOT of reads here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=37#723 The Shining: Tere and ElyAs. Comes straight in with an attack on me and flat out refuses to divulge top two scumreads until after EON. Not massively friendly. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=37#725. He eventually gives two picks after rsoultin probes him for it here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=37#736. I have to say I really don't like his reentry into the thread, his general defensiveness, his attacks on Trfel in particular. I think rsoultin has a genuine point about him Beetlejuicing and anyone who has also played scum with him before should consider her POV. No likey. Jarjarbinks: ElyAs and Tere: Jarjar hops on and quite quickly gives a promise he'd get to the shot question before EON, that looks very unforced and relaxed to me. He writes a very brief shot confirm just before EON http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=38#747. He posts thoughts about ElyAs after daybreak here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=38#759 and about me here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=39#771 . The timing of this stuff looks fine and the cases look relaxed. Town points from me, I also liked his presence in the thread in general after daybreak. Conclusion as to scumteam? Well, its pretty obvious to me - The Shining and ElyAs look the worst coming out of all of that. Since that also meshes with what I've felt from other parts of their filter I am comfortable with that. Other conclusion? Well, it's pretty obvious that everybody finds me scummy. I find this laughable, as as far as I am concerned I am happily playing aggro town, and the fact that everybody finds me scummy should be a decent clue that perhaps I am not. However, it is fine. I have a cunning plan for this. More shortly. | ||
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