Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 42

Trfel

7015 Posts

February 18 2015 15:23 GMT

#821

On February 18 2015 22:31 Trfel wrote:
Not good enough.

##vote Tere

(I need to leave now, but that's left a bit ambiguous for a reason)

I'm sorry, I thought you were done (misinterpreted what you were saying, I guess). You're still posting reasoning/explanations. Carry on then.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

February 18 2015 15:28 GMT

#822

On February 18 2015 22:23 Tere wrote:
Rsoultin was killed by a Minecraft Creeper. I've never watched South Park (Shut up, I know, lol) and I can't really determine much flavour to help us see if it's the scum kill or a vig but in the absence of a vig claim (and a vig on rsoul would have been bonkers IMO) I think we go with it being the scum kill. Doesn't look like TL Mafia uses much flavour analysis to help with newbie games anyway, it's more just a bit of fun.

Normally I don't do this, but for the sake of information for everyone, I am going to step in here and clarify now for everyone.

I have clarified in my veteran game (link) that my storylines are for flavour purposes only. Entirely my fault this was not sorted out at the beginning.

No interpretation of anyone's storyline will or should ever determine anyone's alignment. I deliberately write as such to prevent any WIFOM and any other pro-flavour host from what I've seen does the same. This is the case here as it would be in a normal veteran game.

The only time I ever reveal or even write about players personally in a storyline is when they are getting flipped (from lynch, NK, etc).

Tere

United Kingdom225 Posts

February 18 2015 15:29 GMT

#823

Before I get on to a suggestion for today's play, I just want to respond briefly to what I've bolded here:

On February 18 2015 12:44 Trfel wrote:

Show nested quote +

1. It's not WIFOM because Hier was lynched, not night killed. Given the nature of the lynch, the best you can take from this is that Hier was scumreading Tere. There's not much else to be said here.

2. It's probably best for townies not to respond to weak pokes. If townies are too caught up in defending every single suspicion someone raises against them, not only does that detract from their own scumhunting, but it distracts the entire thread. On the contrary, I actually felt that she was a bit too responsive to my suspicions of her when I admitted they were unfounded in the exact same post. Since End of Day, many people have expressed suspicions of Tere, and she has just said that all will be clear after the Day post. Tere's next few posts will probably be extremely crucial in reading her.

Tere, I am very much awaiting an explanation for your posting during the night. You've been hinting at something. Time to reveal.

Anyone there who wants to chat?

Trfel, if you are town, can you please not bloody do this, it's very irritating. My response to you yesterday probably took an hour of my time by the time I'd fucked about with the formatting to make it readable. You made it very clear in your initial post that you wanted a response from me, I took the time and trouble to craft it, and your response is to scumread me for it further.

I don't have the time to play this game 24/7, and behaving like this if you are town makes me not want to work with you. That's compounded by you simply saying "That's not good enough", laying a lame vote on me and sodding off just now.

I'm now up to 4 hours time spent in the thread post daybreak, with more to come. If this is what you are going to do, I don't see why I should put the effort in, quite frankly, particularly given I'm being universally scumread right now. I should just let you guys mislynch me, AFK, and troll you in the deadboard.

Not impressed right now.

Tere

United Kingdom225 Posts

February 18 2015 15:30 GMT

#824

On February 19 2015 00:23 Trfel wrote:

Show nested quote +

I'm sorry, I thought you were done (misinterpreted what you were saying, I guess). You're still posting reasoning/explanations. Carry on then.

I said I was posting up a bunch of WOTs in the first sentence, not impressed with you right now.

Tere

United Kingdom225 Posts

February 18 2015 15:31 GMT

#825

On February 19 2015 00:28 Half the Sky wrote:

Show nested quote +

Normally I don't do this, but for the sake of information for everyone, I am going to step in here and clarify now for everyone.

I have clarified in my veteran game (link) that my storylines are for flavour purposes only and no interpretation of my storyline will or should ever determine anyone's alignment. I deliberately write as such to prevent any WIFOM and any other pro-flavour host from what I've seen does the same. This is the case here as it would be in a normal veteran game.

The only time I ever reveal or even write about players personally in a storyline is when they are getting flipped (from lynch, NK, etc).

That's what I suspected, Half the Sky, but thanks for clarifying

(It's still hilarious that VT are Kennies, though :D)

Tere

United Kingdom225 Posts

February 18 2015 15:45 GMT

#826

OK, last bit of the marathon, and then I am going to have to go and do some actual work.

Right. Hi. I am Tere, and everyone in the game is currently finding me scummy. This should be a clue that perhaps I am not, but hey.

I would rarely if ever recommend a mislynch for information, but this might be a point (take note, zlefin

) at which it might be appropriate. If I am causing this amount of WIFOM, I am not going to be NKed, and I am going to be poison at Lylo. However, I know I am town, and I am not going to simply roll over and die. If you mislynch me, you had better be sure you get the maximum amount of impact and information out of it. If I see a wagon today that looks like Tere (6), someone else (1) with no sensible thought or analysis, I am going to start punching puppies, posting sarcastic gifs and lolcats and will righteously call the 4 remaining townies out on the deadboard. Being lametown is lame. Don't be lametown.

Town needs to not be lazy and you are trying to catch two scum. You need two sensible thought out and thought through counterwagons, one a direct counterwagon to me, the other for shenannieing onto as and when the counterwagon fakeclaims if scum. I want to see everyone doing the thought experiment that I am telling the truth and am town, and following it through. Please note I do not intend to make any last minute blue claims.

If you want to vote for me, that's fine, too, but I want to see a REAL reason for it, not something daft like Hier's vote placement, and I want to see a backup plan as to the next two people in your lynchpool.

If you mislynch me today, and a NK goes through tonight, you have one more mislynch by my reckoning, and then into save by power role. So you need to make this day count, regardless.

It's probably clear as to where I want my counterwagon to be, one of ElyAs and The Shining. I almost don't want to post anything more about that right now to minimise WIFOM. You can read my read list from N1 but for now I am going to leave it there.

Good luck.

Tere

United Kingdom225 Posts

February 18 2015 15:50 GMT

#827

One final factor - if you must mislynch for info, you should do it today, not in D3. Day 3 corresponds to my weekend, when I have far less time to post, and will not have the time or energy to round up stragglers. I will barely have time to read the thread, I certainly won't have time to work on establishing any counterwagons. I'll probably have an hour tops the whole cycle to cover rereading also. It's annoying, but it's what it is.

So you need to make this day count, guys.

Trfel

7015 Posts

February 18 2015 15:55 GMT

#828

On February 19 2015 00:29 Tere wrote:
Before I get on to a suggestion for today's play, I just want to respond briefly to what I've bolded here:

Show nested quote +

On February 18 2015 12:44 Trfel wrote:

On February 18 2015 11:00 jarjarbinks wrote:
I'm not gonna lie, I am less confident in this one.

Tere:

1: Hier voted for Tere: This is definitely WIFOM. This is also based on numbers I've seen and will be hard to explain, but I will try my best. WIFOM reads are generally perceived as 50-50. From what I have seen in previous (non-newbie games), WIFOM reads from town are actually decent reads on average. Better than 50-50. Especially the reads where the dead townie voted for someone on his/her own. This is great (and you could say hard for me to prove) but you do have to ask yourself if Hier was simply retaling (if forgot the acronym) Tere's aggressive lynch or if he was on to something. I honestly think Hier believed in his vote, which makes me think Tere is more suspicious.

2. Sometimes Tier has been unresponsive to rather simple or weak pokes at her. I've never played with her before and she could play this way as town, but I think this is suspicious. I think this argument has been made by others, so I won't dive too hard, but it is suspicious.

3. Tere was in the bandwagon group, at least to begin with, but then went hard on Hier as time went on. In my eyes, this shows she acted the most like town of the four (Tere, Trf, Silver, Elyas). I put her in this group because she initially bandwagonned.

Making a caveat to my own biases, I perceived her to act like my sister due to the first few posts she's made. I will try not to do that in the future.

Now that you are done, I will respond to this.

First of all, I apologize for the formatting being difficult. I tried to put it in a formatting that was easy to read. In the future, if anyone wants to respond to me, they may feel free to put it in whatever formatting is easiest for them, I am more than happy to read a response in potentially poor formatting. That was not my intention at all.

I do appreciate you spending a lot of time on this game, for the record, I've been spending a lot of time on it too. It took me over an hour to type the post in question as well.

As to why I voted you, I had maybe two minutes before I had to leave for class. I read your posts, saw night kill analysis and voting analysis (which I considered weak*), and no explanation of your strange behavior as of late. Therefore, I placed a vote for you. Note that this vote was pressure, not a firm vote, you can sort of tell that by the sentence in parentheses underneath the vote. I missed the sentences where you said that you were not done. Bad play by me? Yes. Uncalled for? Yes. Can we move on? I hope so. Ironically, my intention was exactly the same as what you suggested (and for basically the same reasons).
*I believe that the voting analysis and night kill analysis you provided are weak (not your fault, they are quite good for the little material to work with). However, what I did not realize is that you were providing an extremely comprehensive thought process including analysis of everything possible, which naturally would include a voting analysis and a night kill analysis, however strong/weak. Therefore, the voting and night kill analysis make perfect sense and are appreciated.

I will not lynch for information. I don't think that is a good idea at all. And yes, if we mislynch today, we are on LYLO, and I do not like that prospect.

Trfel

7015 Posts

February 18 2015 15:58 GMT

#829

Seriously, if I didn't make that clear enough, when taken as a whole that analysis is pretty incredible. I'm tired as heck right now (stayed up too late playing mafia), so I think I will try to nap, but I'll definitely read through it several times. Thanks a bunch for that.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 18 2015 16:27 GMT

#830

You know what Tere ? I'm sold on you being town, and I really hope I'm right.

When I red your posts and Trfel's snap vote, I skipped a beat because I was starting to townread you and saw one of my townreads vote for you. I'm kinda relieved by Trfel's follow-up.

I know I'm not in the best of lights right now, and I'm gonna try to step up my game to find a good case, I owe it to jarjar and Trfel because their posts gave me a little bit of confidence.

I got an hour to allocate to this game right now and I'll try to use it well. (It is really a time consuming game !)

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 18 2015 16:32 GMT

#831

Also, I didn't realize that The Shining was part of rsoultin's acquaintances, so I'm gonna do the same as jarjar and Silver. Even though I kinda agree with zlefin on his NK post, I want to push that line of reasoning to a certain degree.

zlefin

United States7689 Posts

February 18 2015 16:47 GMT

#832

Tere's long set of texts looks fairly towny. It feels like a strong attempt to make people believe she's town. And it does read towny, lots of info, good analysis, appropriate level of outrage at prospect of being lynched.

My one concern is that it kinda feels like trying to get the benefit of blueclaiming without actually blueclaiming.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 18 2015 17:25 GMT

#833

Filter diving Silverarte :

I'm actually uneasy with Silverarte's posts, they contain a lot of fluff and questions.
Gonna try to follow her train of thought.

Started questioning Hier on the usefulness of his attachement to the Bridges. Is nullreading zlefin.
Thereafter, a lot of fluff and questions. Silverarte's tone is generally playful, but this post seems off:

On February 16 2015 22:39 Silverarte wrote:
@hier

Show nested quote +

On February 16 2015 15:17 Hier wrote:

On February 16 2015 15:10 rsoultin wrote:

On February 16 2015 14:52 rsoultin wrote:

On February 16 2015 14:47 Hier wrote:

On February 16 2015 12:51 rsoultin wrote:

On February 16 2015 07:08 Hier wrote:

rsoultin:

In 3 separate posts you have described your reads to be null towards people that have posted, and despite you not liking the Bridges method, which is fine, said that it is something a town player may suggest thinking it’s good.

Later, after someone mentioned they weren't a fan of my model, you've gone to suggest that I've done nothing to show that I care about finding scum,

all the while you proclaim your reads are null and just ask what other players’ reads are. That is the way mafia players probe the scene to start a bandwagon.

Why else, out of the blue, without any further analysis, would you vote me to be lynched with the phrase “Tell me why I’m wrong, or get onboard.”? No, it is your job to tell everyone the reasons behind your vote, not to tell everyone to get onboard.

Okay, in the interest of fairness, if you genuinely believe each of these claims, I can understand your scumread. So I'm going to ask you to actually quote the posts I made that led you to the three bolded conclusions. Preferably in context, because if you misrepresent me I do very much have a tendency to get tunneled xP

Once you've done so, I'll answer the last bit.

Alright. You went back to my original accusation, to which you have already responded, and are now demanding further explanation when, quite literally, nobody else is asking for it. People have already read my statement and have made up their minds, whatever those may be. You are creating artificial content by searching for an excuse to re-state your innocence, and projecting the appearance of scum hunting at the same time. That would create drivel. You have not been the centre of discussion for several pages, and nobody has been tunnelling you, much less me. Right now it looks like the one doing the tunnelling is you. Look, for now my vote stays where it is. If you post something that changes my mind or a more obvious scum target comes up I promise I will be the first one to let you know. For now let me focus on somebody else, instead of going through your filter again.

On February 16 2015 13:31 jarjarbinks wrote:

On February 16 2015 07:58 rsoultin wrote:

On February 16 2015 07:50 Hier wrote:
Trfel:
It only takes one other player to declare his or her support for the model to get people to support its use. I know how Bridges works and how to use it to get a town victory. I will always abide by its rules, but if you later decide it's not worth it by all means abandon it.

Didn't you say that you'd just made this method up? And again, you're focusing on the model and not what I'm asking you for.

@Trfel - I am not in favor of Bridges. Clearly. Even if Hier would be the next "auto-lynch" and I'd laugh my ass off if he flips scum, caught in his own mechanism

Hier, I know a lot of people have been asking you questions. Can you answer this one? Should be easy enough?

I've already answered this, and my answer isn't changing. Yes, as the game began.

As of right now I do not think Trfel or jarjarbinks are scum, and thus have no intention of voting for them.

I don't know if this is just because you're new, but me bringing up your case on me and giving you the opportunity to justify it...how does that come from a scum perspective? As you said, no one seems to really be buying your case, so why would I need to further establish my innocence?

For the record, I'd still like this answered, Hier. From a more veteran player I'd be calling to lynch you with fire for most of your posts xP but I recognize that this is a newbie game and you might actually believe what you're saying.

I just don't know how far my lexicon can take me reiterating my own accusations, and I don't really see the point when you'll just rebuke it my saying I misinterpreted your quotes, thus creating a nucleus for a completely unnecessary discussion.

But if you really really really want I'll do so in the morning. It's getting late here too, and tomorrow is a holiday here, so I'll have time.

I appreciate frustration here, but it still seems like pulling teeth to get reads and the why from you. As nothing has been put up to change my mind and it's still a fight with getting your reads and such? Nothing personal but my vote is on you.
##Vote: Hier

The tone changed. Granted it's a post to justify a vote, and I see 2 other posts with that tone, the first one where she starts questioning Hier and puts a nullread onto zlefin.
I'm linking the other one :
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=33#649

Comes back after EOD, then later to catch up on thread.

Next post is relevant, she voices doubts on Tere, but not convinced she is a good lynch.
She did the same thing with zlefin day 1
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=31#611

Next, suspicion on The Shining, but not willing to push.
Wants more from ElyAs, that is understandable.

Gonna ignore the delay on her "more to come"

Something that looks like a mild townread on JJB
Her two shots : zlefin and Tere, expresses suspicion on Tere for her take on the Hier case.

Expresses doubt on the point system, more precisely on the lack of detail and reasoning.
Asks for clarification on an earlier post.

Later, wants to know Tere's last will and asks more precisions on zlefin.

On February 18 2015 04:02 Silverarte wrote:
Woo! Back! How's it going so far?

Also, so far, what is everyone's top? Rather than two bullets, how about one?

I don't understand why she would dodge that question... She already responded to it once and nothing in her filter makes me think she changed her mind about zlefin.
Right after that, no more posts, even to comment on the NK.

For now I see her filter is about suspicion on zlefin and Tere, and generally trying to be amiable to Trfel and rsoultin.
It could be mildly pushing easy lynch targets while being careful of townleaders.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 18 2015 17:27 GMT

#834

It really took an hour to write this ? Holy hell. I don't want to leave this post alone but I won't have the time to do another one of these right now. I'll be back for 11PM CET for follow-up.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 18 2015 17:34 GMT

#835

Actually, I want to be clear on one point. It's not to be taken as a case for now, just voicing my thoughts aloud.

I want to share my conclusions once I am finished with this exercise.

Half the Sky

Germany9029 Posts

February 18 2015 17:51 GMT

#836

Day 2 Vote Count

Tere (0): ~~Trfel~~

Not Voting (7): Silverarte, ElyAs, Tere, Trfel, Zlefin, The Shining, jarjarbinks

Currently, no one is set to be expelled from South Park Elementary. Day 2 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00).

Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone.
Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain.

zlefin

United States7689 Posts

February 18 2015 18:24 GMT

#837

We need more action, the current activity level seems too low. I just wish I was in a position to do more, but I got some work to do today.

While Elyas did post some above, it still seems to be low value/content, mostly just repeating what happened rather than analyzing it. That, combined with the prior history of seriously low content posting from Elyas, makes me feel Elyas is one of the scum, there's just too little scumhunting.

So I'm voting Elyas.

Trfel

7015 Posts

February 18 2015 18:34 GMT

#838

On February 18 2015 20:55 ElyAs wrote:

Show nested quote +

This post got me thinking. We are in a newbie game so I'll take this in the level zero of mindgames, which means no mindgames, this lynch has a purpose which is not to deceive us.

Bad idea. Even so, by far the most reasonable cause for the rsoultin kill is to get rid of a strong town player who is leading the discussion.

Trfel

7015 Posts

February 18 2015 19:09 GMT

#839

This will be a more detailed response to Tere's recent posts. (or, since I napped for so long, not so recent any more)

First, I note that the amount of effort that Tere put into these posts is probably the greatest single time effort I have ever seen in a mafia game. I almost townread her for effort alone, though without knowing her character, that isn't safe, unfortunately. However, the amount of effort put in is extremely encouraging.

I generally think that voting analysis (at least when basically everyone votes for one obvious person) and night kill analysis are weak. I'm guessing that it would be easily possible to spin the voting analysis to have a completely different set of implicated players (not implying that this is what Tere did). Keep in mind that I have never actually performed or analyzed someone else's voting analysis....

I see the way that Silverarte voted as more null than town, and I feel that the way The Shining voted wasn't as terrible as Tere thinks.

And I feel that ElyAs was actually the most proactive about looking into counterwagons.

I suppose it's silly to try and judge my own play, but I am more inclined to think that the way I voted for Hier looks more scummy than towny. Though that could be completely wrong. And naturally, I think that the rest of my play is more than towny enough to make up for it.

On to Tere's analysis of our collective scumreads.

On February 19 2015 00:20 Tere wrote:
(as an aside, please don't scumread me for being asleep fairly soon after day and night ends that end at midnight my time, that would be lovely)

I'm not. But you had time to post an F5 gif and another post or two, you could have expressed a little disappointment at the flip. It's a moot point, since I'm accepting your explanation, and now that I think about it more, scum tend to feel guilty and sorry for the mislynch. Not showing emotion is not really alignment indicative.

I also disagree with some of Tere's reasoning for the "two kills" analysis. Nice people aren't always town, and mean people aren't always mafia. For example, while The Shining's filter does contain several suspicious things, it also contains several things that look towny. So I'm not confident in scumreading him just for being angry.

In addition to this, Tere's posting has this tone that I run into every so often, not only convincing me that the player posting is the most towny player in the history of mafia, but also making me feel miserable for ever doubting their towniness. With an experienced conversationalist like Tere, logic tells me to be careful with this tone read.

I'm not willing to completely clear Tere. But she has gone through an incredible effort, and much of what she says makes sense (though given the size of the posts, there weren't that many profound insights, though because her posts were formatted to talk about everything that is acceptable, I suppose). I'm a little worried that Tere's posts make her look better than I feel the analysis warrants, but on the whole, I'm mostly happy to accept Tere as town.

Especially if Tere leads us to a scum lynch. If she leads a mislynch, then I will have to take another serious look at this again....

Trfel

7015 Posts

February 18 2015 19:15 GMT

#840

On February 19 2015 02:25 ElyAs wrote:
For now I see her filter is about suspicion on zlefin and Tere, and generally trying to be amiable to Trfel and rsoultin.
It could be mildly pushing easy lynch targets while being careful of townleaders.

I've been more seriously considering the possibility of Silverarte being scum as well. You beat me to it.

But please, Tere is not, never has been, and probably never will be an easy lynch target. High post count players are rarely easy lynch targets, even if they aren't as sensible and persuasive as Tere is.

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