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FUCK not reposting it a third time.
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OK so what do I take from this ?
First, if we only consider this, the most obvious mafia is ... geript. Fucking seriously. Two votes, one with no reasons, one sheeping another vote. I suppose Oats is right and vote analysis are not good by themselves.
Two other people are suspicious by this vote count IMO.
scott
Voted me sheeping a super bad case, switching from mafia Sulfu at the same time.
Ninja voted geript just before deadline, almost as if he absolutely wanted to be in the group.
Damdred
Two votes on town, each time sheeping someone else's case. Made me think of a mafia agreeing with every case posted and congrulating everyone.
One people is less suspicious by this vote count, still IMO.
batsnacks
Two votes that followed two good cases by him. In particular, he had no reason to do a case on geript and make everyone switch to him if I he was mafia.
OK, I know I hard town read Sulfu with this argument, so I'm not gonna hard town batsnacks. But in my mind he's a good sign for him.
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And wow, I wasn't here EOD1 and N1 and I didn't realize I really would have been lynched without batsnacks' case. I thought that was my drunk post that made everybody go "ah, he's so genuine". I now understand better the big wagon on me at the start of day 2. (= Still, I'm sure at least one mafia jumped on that easy wagon.
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Another person is weird. It's Oatsmaster.
He did the same thing for his two votes. He jumped on a new train, so he was second vote each time; and each time, his reasons were ... not. Yeah no reasons actually.
It's almost as he wanted to be the second in the group, no matter who was the lynch, so he could say after "hey, I was at the beginning of the train, didn't hop in opportuniscally".
I'll see if his day 2 votes are the same. Later. This shit takes too long to do.
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I was doing this mostly to see if ruxxar was suspicious. And his voting pattern day 1 is not suspicous at all.
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On June 18 2015 17:56 Rels wrote:
Another person is weird. It's Oatsmaster.
He did the same thing for his two votes. He jumped on a new train, so he was second vote each time; and each time, his reasons were ... not. Yeah no reasons actually.
It's almost as he wanted to be the second in the group, no matter who was the lynch, so he could say after "hey, I was at the beginning of the train, didn't hop in opportuniscally".
I'll see if his day 2 votes are the same. Later. This shit takes too long to do.
To add to that, he didn't do this with Sulfurus. Even more suspicious.
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*sigh* let's do day 2 now.
The three wagons of the day were on me, Kickstart and Sulfurus.
Reading about this vote list and reasons, I'll try to see:
- who jumped too easily on me and Kickstart
- who was relunctant to jump on Sulfu
- who on the contrary had no reason to jump on Sulfu but did, hinting at a bus
I suggest you do the same.
Day 2
D2H00 batsnacks => Rels Reasons
D2H00 moosy => Rels Reasons
D2H00 scott => Rels Reasons
D2H00 ruxxar => Rels Reasons
D2H00 Damdred => Rels Reasons
D2H00 Kickstart => Rels Reasons
D2H03 batsnacks => ruxxar Reasons
D2H03 WOS => Sulfurus Reasons
D2H08 Trfel => Rels Reasons
D2H17 ruxxar => moosy Reasons ... sort of
D2H20 Trfel => Unvote Reasons
D2H21 scott => Unvote Reasons
D2H24 Damdred => Unvote No reason
D2H24 WOS => Kickstart Reasons
D2H24 Rels => Kickstart Reasons
D2H25 Kickstart => Sulfurus Reasons
D2H25 ruxxar => Kickstart Reasons
D2H32 Sulfurus => Oatsmaster Reasons
D2H33 Trfel => Kickstart Reasons
D2H41 Oatsmaster => Kickstart Reasons
D2H44 Damdred => ruxxar Reasons (not really)
D2H45 Damdred => Sulfurus Reasons
D2H45 WOS => Unvote Reasons
D2H45 WOS => Sulfurus Reasons
D2H45 moosy => Unvote Reasons
D2H47 batsnacks => Sulfurus Reasons
D2H47 moosy => Sulfurus Reasons
D2H47 Trfel => Sulfurus Reasons
D2H47 scott => Kickstart Reasons
D2H47 Sulfurus => Kickstart No reason
D2H47 scott => Sulfurus Reasons
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OK first as I said several times, I think at least one mafia jumped on my easy train at the start of day 2. Discarding moosy, the people on my train were:
batsnacks
scott
ruxxar
Damdred
Kickstart
Trfel
So there is a good chance at least 1 mafia is in that list.
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Thoughts on various people.
Oatsmaster
Like day 1, he didn't vote neither me nor Sulfurus. In his reasons to vote Kickstart, he expresses suspicion on Sulfu, but never vote him. Suspicious IMO.
ruxxar
ruxx went on my wagon when it was easy.
Then he went on moosy's wagon for weird reasons when I started posting stuff.
Then he went on Kickstart's easy wagon for no reason.
Then he didnt' go for Sulfu's easy wagon.
Not town sign obviously but not that suspicious IMO.
Damdred
The first to go on Sulfu's wagon (after Kickstart's defense vote). Pretty good sign.
batsnacks
Started on my per his case, but quickly voted ruxxar. Super weird, as I was super scummy before day 2.
WOS
First of the day to express real doubts on Sulfu. Good sign.
Trfel
Explained everything he did. Very logical. Hammered Sulfu with his vote.
scott
Super suspicious. I will pretend he's mafia and construct a likely narrative for him for day 2.
He hoped into my easy train sheeping someone at the very start of the day 2.
He had 14 posts between 5 hours before the deadline and the deadline
In the first of these 14 posts he soft defended Sulfu, when Sulfu only had one vote (Kickstart's):
On June 17 2015 02:44 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2015 13:06 Kickstart wrote:
I said sorry once. Again you are just making stuff up in that regard. Only in your mind was last game an ok lynch and was I playing weird at all, your only qualm was my posts were too long.... But I don't want to argue with you about a prior game or about anything for that matter. For someone who likes to talk about what others do, you sure sit back and do nothing early on and get yourself into the the most ridiculous tunnels :rollseyes:.
Not discussing this nonsense further it is a waste of time. Then let us discuss Sulfurus - what do you not like about him? He just voted for Oats I see.
Then, even though he posted 8 posts in the last 4 hours, he posted this:
On June 17 2015 06:38 scott31337 wrote:
Yeah Im here had to finish the other game - I fought well
let me read and catch up and my vote
This post looks like this to me: "Ow I don't have time to think I may do a mistake voting as I only have a few minutes to decides"
And mistake he did since he posted this:
On June 17 2015 06:43 scott31337 wrote:
Grrr I haven't like KS all game - his wall of text isn't that great but it's something....I like who's on Sulfurs better, but the last three times I've used that suggestion, Its because the mafia were on the other side and enough townies on the ML anyway
I'm going with KS.
At the same time, Sulfu also voted Kickstart.
Then scott realized his vote and Sulfu's was not enough to lynch Kickstart, so he salvaged the situation:
On June 17 2015 06:49 scott31337 wrote:
If Sulf is mafia then I'll look like shit
Trfel is my believer and WoS is my believer they want Sulf dead
Sulf isn't doing shit
Let's go Sulf then fuhq it
What does he "if Sulfu if mafia then I'll look like shit". Why care so much. He had the same kind of thinking day 1, when he ninja voted geript for no reason. That reason may be that he wanted to be in the group.
So the strongest thing I take from day 2 analysis is a strong scum lean on scott. These reasons especially:
- he was part of the group that had an easy jump on me
- he tried to hammer kickstart
- he changed his mind just after, as it was clear that Sulfu was going to get lynched
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OK I'm updating my town list:
WOS
Trfel
Kickstart
batsnacks
By POE 2 mafia are probably here:
ruxxar
Oats
Damdred
scott
And I think at least 1 mafia is in here:
batsnacks
scott
ruxxar
Damdred
Kickstart
Trfel
So crossing the lists, these people has a good chance being mafia:
scott
ruxxar
Damdred
Ordered that last list from most scum to less scum.
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OK I really have to work now (= didn't do shit all morning as obviously I was posting things here.
TODO list when I have time: ruxxar / Sulfu interactions analysis + updating my scott case.
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Woaw I leave the thread for 5 hours and a third of the messages are from the host.
Anyway I have a request for everyone reading: I want you to take a look at voting patterns and tell your thoughts about it. I made voting recap for day 1 and day 2. Or you can use Trfel's analysis if you prefer that style.
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Yeah, just read it once and say of anyone looked good or weird.
I have cookies for the first three
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On June 19 2015 01:45 Oatsmaster wrote:
yeah pretty much what wave said.
As I said before, I dont think any of the votes have been alignment indicative so far this game.
Because none of them were to save a mafia.
I find Scott s vote both day could be in this category
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I made a list of people voting for me day 2. Damdred is in it and oats is not.
Damdred and oats are on my poe list.
When the lists are crossed that gives this result.
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On June 19 2015 03:42 batsnacks wrote:Sulfur's strategy d1 is getting on my wagon asap and townreading the other people who voted and stayed on my wagon. Sulfur is "rewarding" n00b and ruxxar with town reads because they are pushing an agenda that benefits him. Sulfur does not need to reward his scum mates to get them to push his agenda, they do it for free. K now I'm about to possibly get controversial. Re-reading sulfur's filter again, oats is town. I will show you why with sulfur's oats case: Show nested quote +On June 16 2015 15:32 Sulfurus wrote:K I just realized that Oats is scummy. I looked through his filter and minus the fluff it's just him asking questions (interspersed with attempts to discredit towny posts) Now I'm sure n00b would be quick to remind me that asking questions is actually towny as it provides valuable scum hunting information But even if Oats has gotten anything from his posts he hasn't actually provided any of it to the thread in fact it's likely that his questions are helping mafia more then town. ##Vote: Oatsmaster Look where sulfur says oats is discrediting n00b and Rels townie posts. Sulfur is defending their posts from the big bad bully oats. Newer mafia players do this a lot as scum; they defend townies from aggressive/abrasive town players and scum read them because they believe that the abrasive townie's attitude will make them easier to mislynch. They believe they are earning town points from saving other townie's from the bully. This also implies that Rels is town.
Pretty cool. I have me convinced.
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EBWOP: You* have me convinced.
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batsnacks is your vote of scott only from POE ?
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EPT
