On June 15 2015 06:59 n00bKing wrote:Yay, deadline! Can finally post this monster. I typed this up like 4 hours ago, and have had to sit on it all day. I have to say though, the posts that have been made since then have not really made me reconsider any of what I'm posting here.
WALL OF TEXT TIME!
I don't particularly expect to be killed tonight. But just in case that happens, here's where my thoughts are at.
Briefly, let's consider what it means if I do get killed. There was one post I made that I backreferenced twice, and is probably the post that would be most strongly associated with me. It was this one:
Show nested quote +n00bKing wrote:
Situation: 11 players have votes in place, and 2 players are not voting. All 11 of the votes are on either batsnacks or Sulfurus. No one has a vote on anyone else.
At this stage of a Day 1, I'm more used to seeing a smattering of votes on some other miscellaneous players too. Maybe partially because the scum team doesn't want to have all their votes in one place, so they fan out some (and maybe a random Townie or two gets tunneled on their respective targets, and won't budge, even though no one else has any interest in following along).
Theory: This situation makes it pretty likely that one of the two players receiving votes is actually scum, and that we don't have a Town vs. Town situation for our two vote leaders. The scum team has not been able to fan out their votes, because they've needed "all hands on deck" to make sure that the scum player doesn't take a runaway lead in the voting.
Conclusion: Even though there's a lot of time left in the Phase, we may not want to introduce a third lynch target, and should instead stick to trying to pick between these two (since, if the Theory is correct, one of them would flip Red).
I didn't have any luck whatsoever trying to get geript out of the noose, and some players (like damdred and batsnacks) have been saying that a lot of my posts can just be safely ignored. Based on all that, I don't think the scum players would kill me, to make it look like they were trying to silence me, to FRAME one of Sulfurus/batsnacks, if they were both actually town. Rather, the scum team would only kill me if my Theory was indeed correct, and one of Sulfurus/batsnacks IS scum. So remember, if the scum team kills me, the Theory is correct.
We already know that I still think the Theory is correct, and I've mentioned some possible teammates for batsnacks (damdred, Moosy) if he is the bad guy in this scenario. And I said that I also had some ideas in mind about who could be possible teammates for Sulfurus, if he is the bad guy in this scenario. So here goes.
If Sulfurus is scum, my best guess for a teammate of his is ruXxar. And my second-best guess is Rels. Trying to catch the entirety of a 3-man scum team before anyone flips red might be a fool's errand, but there are a lot of interesting things to note, about the interactions (and sometimes, lack of interactions) between these 3 players.
Most of all, they do not speak to each other directly, they just speak OF each other indirectly. This could be because all 3 of them are on the Newbie list. A couple of them may be playing as scum in Mafia-by-forum for their very first time. And they may be trying to avoid talking with each other, because they question their ability to make the conversation seem authentic, rather than fabricated.
Sulfurus has not made any posts where he is speaking directly to ruXxar OR rels. None. NONE! Nor has ruXxar made ANY posts where he is speaking directly to Sulfurus.
Rels has made only 1 post where he is speaking directly to Sulfurus, and has made 2 posts where he is speaking directly to ruXxar. ruXxar has made only 1 post where he is speaking directly to Rels, and that was a post where he is answering a question that Rels has posed to him.
But although these guys don't ever talk to each other, they talk ABOUT each other plenty. If you look through their respective filters, you'll find a LOT of instances where they are soft-defending each other, and giving each other slight town reads. Occasionally one of them will give one of the others a hard town read instead. Sometimes they talk about their willingness to vote against one of the others, but it NEVER actually happens.
One of the most interesting posts in all of Day 1 was this one:
Show nested quote +On June 14 2015 05:04 batsnacks wrote:On June 14 2015 05:00 Sulfurus wrote:I didn't want to say anything about trfel before because his vote on Bats was protecting me but he is just straight up wrong on Rels. He makes a post
here where he says rels made a bad town read on ruXxar even though (IMO) ruXx is one of the towniest players in the game.
He also keeps saying that Rels is tunneled on Plant's only post and he basically dismisses the rest of his filter when in fact it's
really good and shows a town who is focused on trying to solve the game.
This is bold. Why does mafia post this?
This was the towniest post batsnacks made the whole phase. He's been in this vote race with Sulfurus for a lot of the day, yet he points out that it is curious (and yes, bold) for Sulfurus (if he were scum) to protect Rels, who has surfaced as a third horse in that vote race. If batsnacks is scum and trying to avoid the noose, why is he pointing out something Sulfurus had said that wouldn't make any sense, if Sulfurus were scum? So this reflects well on batsnacks, more than anything else he did the whole phase.
And it's a GOOD question. If Sulfurus is scum and trying to avoid the noose, why is he protecting this new potential target (Rels)? Well, one explanation that would make sense is: If Rels is ALSO scum.
Lastly, I'll take a look at how this potential Sulfurus/reXxar/Rels team fits in with my Theory about the Day 1 voting. Here's the vote count, at the time I posted the Theory:
Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 20:33 Onegu wrote:
Oatsmaster (0): Kickstart
ruXxar (0): Trfel
Kickstart (0): Sulfurus
Sulfurus (5): Kickstart, geript, batsnacks, WaveOfShadow, scott11331373737373771317371373
Batsnacks (6): n00bKing, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, sulfurus, Rels, Trfel
scott113133373737131731371313713137 (0): Rels
Geript (0): WaveofShadow
Rels (0): batsnacks
Not Voting (2):
MoosyDoosy
Damdred
If the scum team is Sulfurus/ruXxar/Rels, then without a doubt, you've got "all hands on deck" in that vote count, keeping batsnacks in the lead ahead of Sulfurus. All 3 of them have their vote on batsnacks, to help make sure Sulfurus doesn't run out to an insurmountable lead.
And the timing of those votes makes sense too, in that scenario. ruXxar was on batsnacks early. It isn't until Sulfurus picks up a 2nd vote (the one from geript) that Sulfurus goes ahead and piles onto batsnacks. And it isn't until Sulfurus picks up a 3rd vote (the one from batsnacks) that Rels ALSO piles onto batsnacks.
But I'm sure they wouldn't be comfortable, all having their vote on the same guy, who they know would flip green. So once Trfel puts the 6th vote on batsnacks, Rels is looking to make a move. As I mentioned at the time, he goes OUTSIDE the game, to look at batsnacks' meta, to manufacture an excuse to move his vote off of him. If he can get a third horse going, it could shut down the usefulness of my Theory, because it can stall the batsnacks vs. Sulfurus debate for another day. So Rels goes after geript, who we now know was Town. He then IMMEDIATELY bails on the thread (in the same post where he puts his vote on geript) so that I won't have a chance to berate him for how his vote change violates the Conclusion of my Theory.
Rels can safely move off of batsnacks, because even in the 5 vs. 5 tie it creates, batsnacks would still be the lynch, and not Sulfurus. He can always shift back later if he needs to, but if they can get away with it, they really don't want to all be in the same place at the same time.
I said during Day 1 that Sulfurus was my "#2 suspect." batsnacks was #1. Later in the day, I said that Sulfurus was "still a Top 2 suspect for me." I no longer said he was #2, just Top 2. Because he had actually overtaken batsnacks as #1. I just hadn't moved my vote yet (or even admitted that Sulfurus was the new #1), because I wanted to see batsnacks follow through on his promise to "destroy the thread" if he stayed in the vote lead long enough.
Sulfurus would be my top lynch on Day 2. If he flips Red, is it better to go after ruXxar or Rels next? That's tough. The ties between Sulfurus and ruXxar are definitely stronger than the ties between Sulfurus and Rels. But Rels is being read by more people as being generally scummy right now, so he might be the easier lynch, even if ruXxar could be the more logical lynch.
I'll say again that I would not waste a cop check on ruXxar, because if he's scum, I think his most likely role is Ignignokt.
If Sulfurus flips Green, then it's back to the drawing board, to some extent. Hopefully that would mean a batsnacks scum team, and he's paired with either Moosy or damdred. But that case is tougher to make than Sulfurus/ruXxar/Rels.
If Sulfurus and batsnacks are both Green, then I have been wrong about pretty close to everything in this game, and you shouldn't even be interested in who I think the scum team might be, at that point. If it's something like Kickstart/Wave/Trfel, then...good luck with that.
Alright, that's it. Go Town!
Conclusion: Even though there's a lot of time left in the Phase, we may not want to introduce a third lynch target, and should instead stick to trying to pick between these two (since, if the Theory is correct, one of them would flip Red).
EPT
and geript seems to be the lynch.
