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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I have played games with sqrtofneg1, 27ninjabunnies, Epishade, Alakaslam, and Palmar; that ordering also probably reflects how familiar I am with them as players. At this moment I haven't read the thread- I will get on that shortly and probably put some initial thoughts into a post. I'll be around a fair amount tomorrow too, if you want me to answer some specific question or talk about something in particular, just let me know. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Slam’s posting is usually fun, but occasionally frustrating since it’s not always clear what he means, so it can be hard to draw a read from that. I don’t think it is inherently bad On Jabberwockzerg I felt jabber’s first post was a bit odd because he copied his post from the prior game (where he was scum) and I feel like he might have a different opening if he was town. I also think bunnies may be onto something, but I’m not sure if her post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=6#106) realizes the more damning point or not (it’s sorta weirdly written) so I’ll write it just in case. To me, what is suspicious about jabber’s post is that he suggested a player was mafia last game, but he knew that the player was not mafia last game. In other words, he offered a scenario as a counterpoint that he knew to be false. It’d be fine if he said he was just raising the point as a possibility, but his answer (that he didn’t know it was public information) doesn’t look so hot. I’m not convinced on him yet, but I want to pursue this. @Jabberwockzerg: 27ninjabunnies has raised a point regarding your play that she argues shows you are mafia. You also posted that she was doing a lot of finger pointing on day one. Do you think her point on you is good? Do you feel that her raising that point makes her more likely to be town or mafia? @fuba and @HaruRH: You joined the vote on jabberwockzerg. I understand that you agree with bunnies’ point on him – what do you think of jabberwockzerg’s responses after bunnies’ vote? Do they feel more town or scum to you? aside @HaruRH: This is not game-oriented, but I really like the “God Knows” song from Haruhi and love to sing it in karaoke :D | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(1) There's no reason for him to raise a false scenario So, both town and mafia can raise scenarios they know to be false. Of course, mafia will - they won't admit they are scum. But, town does do this as well at times. - Sometimes this is to make plays Example: town VT fakeclaims a role to get shot/roleblocks - Sometimes, this is to argue for a position even if the player was scum. Example: town player argues “If I flip town, do ABC; if I flip mafia, do XYZ”). The player knows the second scenario will not happen, but can argue that even if they were scum, a certain play is best for town. Compared with these, I don’t see any redeeming reason for jabberwock’s pushing a point he knows to be incorrect. (2) Jabberwock's Response is Scummy/Weird On May 27 2014 11:24 jabberwockzerg wrote: Didn't realize that was public information My bad I'd expect a town player to say things like they forgot, or yeah I guess that point is invalid, etc. To me, jabberwock's post is essentially saying he didn’t know we would be able to catch him. I guess I don’t find jabberwock’s later post (confused as to the case) to be alignment indicative... I feel like the original posts didn’t state the case that clearly (I think that’s why fuba/me/palmar reposted it). @jabberwock: You’re the strongest wagon at this moment, but I understand some people are hesitating on your lynch. I feel you are a pretty good lynch right now, but I’m open to hearing more from you. Given the discussion around your play, is there anyone you feel has been playing scummy? If you were going to pick someone to vote for, who would that be and why? More in a little bit | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I can understand you having some hesitation on the initial jabberwockzerg points, though I think it's not a bad argument. What do you think of jabberwock's followup post(s)? For fuba, I understand that you didn't like that he voted for jabber without an explanation. I agree that we needed to press him for a reason, but do you feel like him voting without an explanation was scummy? I take it you do from this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=12#224), but I'd have to disagree, I feel that players give reads/votes without explanation as either town or scum. Could you explain your thoughts on this a little more and if your feelings on fuba come from anywhere else? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I meant to ask you yesterday, but forgot. I know we are sort of on other topics now, but could you answer your own early question - What is your take on Alakaslam's posting? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Lemme see if I can find some questions for you, you should do the same | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
This is just something I think is kinda weird as an observation, but not scum-indicative. It’s strange to me that your early posts seemed to push against using the prior game for information. However, you end up joining a case that is more or less based on the prior game (on jabberwockzerg). Examples: + Show Spoiler + On May 27 2014 09:37 27ninjabunnies wrote: Lets not talk about previous game roles. On May 27 2014 09:44 27ninjabunnies wrote: I just don't want previous game to carry over to this game I suppose. Because how a person was playing the previous game, might be the same as this game, which could indicate that they are a role or the same role and I don't want to make it easy on mafia  On May 27 2014 10:58 27ninjabunnies wrote: I mean, basically you can discuss whatever. Just dont make your entire filter based off of not game things. Hence me trying to get yall back on track On May 27 2014 11:22 27ninjabunnies wrote: Was he town-halling? I didn't read the birds and the bees qt from last game. Any comments? I'll look for more in a bit. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
1) Thoughts on mderg (though I end up talking about jabberwock) I think mderg's point is fair - I basically agree that jabberwock's post makes no sense from town or scum. I know that I am not a scumteam with jabberwock, so I know that his post seems senseless from scum... even if he is scum, even if he thinks that the last game was private, he would know that I am town and that I can reveal chrom was not mafia last game. This is why I have been asking people about jabberwock's followup posts - jabberwock's initial post looks a lot more like a mistake to me than a scumslip. But, I feel like his followup posts are troubling and those are certainly making me feel better about the wagon on him. 2) Thoughts on mderg defense of jabberwock I don't have strong feelings on this. The case isn't ironclad because I feel like almost all of it can be explained by poor play. On the other hand, it'd be tough to make any case on d1 that can't be explained by just poor play :D 3) Thoughts on mderg questioning wagon This is good and I want to see more of it. Even if you feel the case on jabberwock is great and he's the likely lynch, we should be using this time to get more information. We have more info d2 if we make sure to see how everyone respond to the jabberwock wagons, the points from players on it, etc. As an aside, not a fan of this comment for similar reasons. On May 27 2014 21:28 Palmar wrote: Okay I'll be a good sheep. ##vote jabberwockzerg To put in clear terms what the problem I, and clearly others, have is: The point isn't that you screwed it up. The point is that you brought up an argument that you already know is invalid. I don't see any motivation for someone who is town to do that. Unless you can explain why as town it makes sense for you to throw something you know will not help solve the issue at hand into the mix, we're going to have to lynch you. I'm fine with not doing anything else today. This is better than most day 1 lynch opportunities we get. @jabberwockzerg: if you're somehow town, now is your time to step up. I dislike the bolded part for the reasons above, but to be fair it isn't awful in in context (Palmar encourages jabber to act) more in a sec I have to step away a few minutes | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
- Thoughts on bunnies' response to mderg @27ninjabunnies: Not a huge fan of your posts responding to mderg. On May 28 2014 03:04 27ninjabunnies wrote: (cut) You are right. Unless amiko is with him, his play would be called out. However, what was I supposed to do, let it slide and hope that amiko comments on it? That's not something I would do. I think this doesn’t address the more important point – whether the comment from jabberwock indicates his alignment. Mderg is saying that there’s a fair chance jabberwock’s comment would get caught, so mafia-jabberwock wouldn’t make the comment. MDerg isn’t raising this in suspicion of you – it’s pretty immaterial whether you commented on it or not. The point he’s raising (which I think is fine, see prior post) is that he feels it is more likely to be a misplay or misstatement, rather than a scumslip. I think your subsequent posts do not respond to that point, so I don’t really like your responses. I guess I’ll mention I dislike a few of your other posts- On May 28 2014 01:54 27ninjabunnies wrote: I mean, i think my case is pretty solid. And there are a lot of people who agree (en again not everyone is here and commenting). I'm quite nervous this might be a mislynch. This is sort of doubletalk. To be clear, I am not really considering as a lynch possibility, however I figured this was a good time to note that post. Thoughts on Fuba's uncertainty and defense of uncertainty on jabber? I like fuba so far. I always feel a little warm about someone who posts something I was writing just before I post it, and fuba did that earlier so that gave me initially good feelings on him. Uncertainty makes sense. I think people can feel jabber is scum or town, so uncertainty feels reasonable. I don’t find his vote without explanation to be that meaningful. I feel like this is all stuff that we can reassess if jabber is lynched, but otherwise we need to get fuba to talk about some other points as well. ------------------------- @fuba: What are your thoughts on other players’ approaches to the jabberwock case? Specifically, I’d like your thoughts on me / mderg / bunnies – comment on one or all, as you like. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 28 2014 04:58 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I would personally really like to hear more from harurh. And fuba This is your second post. I would like to hear more from you. What do you think about the argument that jabberwock's comment would not come from scum or mafia? In your first post it seems like you suspect players who are defensive of jabberwock, and you mention fuba and haru. What are your thoughts on mderg? Alakazam says that mderg's points on jabberwock were not specific (see http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=13#247). Do you agree or disagree? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I don't think we've talked yet this game. You became a firebat before me :c On May 27 2014 23:15 sqrtofneg1 wrote: I don't like palmar so far. I do like fuba. Could you explain both these reads? Right now I am more interested in your read on Palmar so I'd like if you gave more explanation of that one. Also, would you please comment on jabberwock's posts after the case against him was made? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 28 2014 05:11 Chromatically wrote: I think this is scummy given that sqrt had access to this information all the time (he was in the thread when jabber "slipped"). Here was his reaction at that time: Doesn't call him scum for it at all. Even later, he only once calls him scum, but just for being thrown off his alphabet game. Now, however, when the jabber lynch has a lot of traction, he jumps on without any reasoning for changing his mind. There are plenty of additional points against jabber concerning his reaction, but that's not the justification sqrt gave. sqrt's explanation for his vote is inconsistent with how he originally reacted to jabber's post. Could you clarify - are you suggesting that (1) sqrt changed his mind from town to scum? or (2) that sqrt changed his mind from neutral to scum? Please also clarify if you feel sqrt would be a good lynch alternative to jabberwockzerg | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
another question to clarify, sorry- Are you saying it is inconsistent because he gives a justification you disagree with? Or it is inconsistent because there is no justification? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
If you want to talk about anything in particular let me know with a quick post. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
You talked a bit about your scumread on Palmar and Fuba. First for Palmar- I think it’s fair to say that Palmar’s vote on 27ninjabunnies was empty, but why do you see that as scummy? I feel like an early vote that you pretend is serious isn’t necessarily scummy… at least, I’ve seen players do that as town in a couple games (if it’s important to you I can try to find examples, but otherwise just take my word for it that town does that, too). Second, for Fuba. You townread fuba for being uncertain on jabberwockzerg. Do you also townread the other players who have indicated some hesitation on fuba (ex: mderg)? This is more of a general comment- I would like to see town have a second wagon (besides jabberwockzerg), but I’m just not sure who that should be yet. I’ll keep looking for that as I go through the thread here. Palmar seems like a possible second from comments in the thread, but I don't think I feel strongly scummy on him. I'll try to give him a deeper read and see if that changes my mind after I finish catching up. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I dunno, I think I've been decently active. I think there's a little less going on in this thread, though... I feel like attention is mostly going on the jabberwockzerg issue and we need to try to have conversation on other points as well. On that note, I actually liked this post by Palmar (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=16#319) largely because I think we need to see some activity from MZ and it made some new conversation points. I want to follow my thoughts on those a bit... @27ninjabunnies: Two things on your post here- On May 28 2014 09:04 27ninjabunnies wrote: Ooooq..... Interesting. Tbh i agree with MZ here. Sqrts play is kinda weird. I dont like it. (1) I do agree somewhat. I think sqrt's posts have been a little different this game - specifically, I feel sqrt is posting with a similar frequency to his other games, but is asking far fewer questions about the game. There are some questions, for sure, but I feel like he has been less inquisitive. What do you think is weird about sqrt's play or posts? (2) To explain a little, I don't feel like Meapak was really saying sqrt's posting style was weird. See post- On May 28 2014 08:42 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: You've thrown around a lot of suspicions this game. Instead of making a vague statement like this, interpret what it means. If you leave it vague like this, it makes it seem like you're just trying to throw dirt on him without actually having to take a stand. Instead tell us why this is a problem, maybe provide some examples if you're gonna cite his meta. I see this as saying he wants sqrt to explain his comments further, not necessarily calling out sqrt's play as strange. Or do you feel sqrt is weird because he is throwing around a lot of suspicions? To me, that seems pretty much in line with his prior play... Sorry I keep raising negative points on you as side comments, lol, but I will also mention that I think Meapak's point on sqrt (don't make vague statements) basically applies to your post as well (where you just say "Sqrts play is kinda weird. I dont like it."). | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Ehhh I want to focus on other things but I want to at least give a response to your reads. I do appreciate you posting them, even if I have some concerns with them. 1) HaruRH/Fuba vs. Mderg It seems that you townread HaruRH & fuba for defending you. From my point of view, it seems like mderg was also defending you. However, for mderg you write “Not really getting much.” Can you explain why your read on mderg is different than you read on HaruRH/fuba? 2) Reasons to defend you Also, it seems to me that if you are town, mafia may want to defend you because it may give them credibility. In other words, let’s pretend for this paragraph that you are town. If you die, you will be revealed as town. If mafia defended you, they arguably look better (because they did not push to mislynch someone who is town). I don’t really know whether the people defending you are town or mafia, but I just want to ensure that you considered this as a possibility. If you thought about this and your reads are the same, fine. If you didn’t think about this before, does it change your reads at all? 3) Where do we go? From your reads, I think your highest scum suspect is sqrtofneg1, followed by Palmar (let me know if this is incorrect). You subsequently list Palmar as your highest scumread. What made sqrt move down, or Palmar move up? Is it just because sqrt was voting on Palmar? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 28 2014 11:55 Alakaslam wrote: Haven't read him but he has agree with me usually so. There is that What did I agree with you about? I don't think I've really interacted with you this game besides a quick comment on your playstyle which wasn't direct. So I am confused a little by this post. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I don't have much to question you about but here are a few quick things besides the question in my last post: (1) Curious, why did you quote sloosh in your vote post? (2) Do you have any read on slOosh for now? If you would like, you can present your read in the form of a youtube video (but I would like some text explaining why you picked that youtube video) (if that's too much pressure just text is okay) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I am planning to be around tomorrow… I don’t think I will be in the morning, but probably on computer most afternoon, instead. If you leave me questions I'll get to them and will plan to be here for lynch if I can. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 29 2014 03:14 sqrtofneg1 wrote: @amiko What do you think of a second wagon? I want there to be a second wagon. On May 28 2014 14:51 Amiko wrote: (cut) This is more of a general comment- I would like to see town have a second wagon (besides jabberwockzerg), but I’m just not sure who that should be yet. I’ll keep looking for that as I go through the thread here. Palmar seems like a possible second from comments in the thread, but I don't think I feel strongly scummy on him. I'll try to give him a deeper read and see if that changes my mind after I finish catching up. I will comment on Palmar in my reads, I have written the most about him so far but I won't tell you yet whether I think he is scum or town this moment :D @sqrt and @Alakaslam (if you are here): What do you think of Palmar as a second wagon? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@Alakaslam: If you were to pick a second wagon, who would it be? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
You didn't answer this so let me get your attention ALAKASLAM On May 28 2014 15:28 Amiko wrote: @Alakaslam: I don't have much to question you about but here are a few quick things besides the question in my last post: (1) Curious, why did you quote sloosh in your vote post? (2) Do you have any read on slOosh for now? If you would like, you can present your read in the form of a youtube video (but I would like some text explaining why you picked that youtube video) (if that's too much pressure just text is okay) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Maybe jabberwockzerg will be lynched today, maybe not. Either way, I'd rather have the day end where there are two people who reasonably could get lynched. In that case, our votes are more significant because they reflect an actual choice: it means people found one person scummy as compared to another person. If all the votes are on jabberwockzerg, the votes don't tell us much of anything and don't reflect a meaningful choice by the players. Since some players don't want to vote jabberwockzerg, I want to know who their pick would be. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I'm writing now and seeing what I find. I can post what I have and continue I suppose. Btw I asked you for a read on Alakaslam a little earlier since a fair number of your posts seemed to focus on him, can you give me any comments? @27ninjabunnies: Nothing personal bunnies, but I'm going to ignore that post unless you give me anything to write about :x | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
HaruRH has made some comments I think are scummy or weird, if you are in thread and don't have other stuff to talk about, let me know what you think. 1) Seems to have joined JWZ case on grounds that feel overly non-committal After a case is made on jabberwockzerg, HaruRH presents the case as a gamble and talks a bit about odds - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=6#109. To me, this seems like a strange view. If you feel you want to go with the odds, JWZ is no more or less likely to be scum than anyone else. I dislike this for two reasons. (1) it gives no response on ninjabunnies' points; (2) it does not tie him to his vote on JWZ at all - his justification (probability) applies equally to everyone. 2) Tells JWZ to talk about things other than the case on him, but will only unvote JWZ if he addresses the case on him HaruRH more or less suggests JWZ change the subject to avoid getting votes http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=130&topic_id=451317. Initially, I didn't think this was bad - I also wanted to see JWZ scumhunt and talk about other issues, and some other players asked for that as well (Palmar comes to mind). But, HaruRH then says On May 27 2014 15:51 HaruRH wrote: what I understood from all jabber's responses are either a high level of newbie play, or scum. I will provide examples later after I get on a computer. Will not unvote until jabber defends himself convincingly This is weird because he's told jabber to talk about something else... but won't unvote unless jabber talks more about the topic. 3) Weird role comments On May 28 2014 22:33 HaruRH wrote: I would give it a 30% chance to be 1) and a 70% chance to be 2). The only problem is the non-vanilla townies now. Who will they protect/scan/roleblock? By the way, which setup was used? A/B/C? Could be important for us VT to know. This feels strange to me for a few reasons as well. (1) There's no point to claiming VT at this time (or in general). (2) I don't understand how he manages to see the different roles in the OP, but misses the red text underneath saying we don't know the setup. On May 27 2014 09:08 Blazinghand wrote: This game uses a variable open setup. When the game begins, one of the following setups will be chosen: A) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 2 Mafia Goons B) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Watcher, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 2 Mafia Goons C) 1 Town Doctor, 1 Town Watcher, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 2 Mafia Goons The mafia will be informed as to which setup is chosen, but the town will not! I don't see why he'd start thinking about the setup at this point. This post could be trying to role-fish because he is thinking about night kills. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Currently have a townread on Palmar. This is mostly based on Palmar’s interactions re: jabberwockzerg case. (I also feel like Meapak-sqrt is a little less likely to be a scumteam, but that is a weak read.) SUMMARY - Palmar raises points by other people, but doesn’t try to take credit for those points. - Palmar pushes on JWZ and other players. - Palmar does not seem certain JWZ is scum, but seems to feel it is the best lynch (currently agree). His early vote on ninjabunnies and his interaction with Meapak don’t mean much to me. I feel he is slightly more likely to be town based on suspicion from sqrt/jabberwockzerg who feel suspicious to me right now, but I might reasses when I go through sqrt more fully. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- DETAILS / BASIS Palmar - 27ninjabunnies Early D1, Palmar votes on 27ninjabunnies. This vote means pretty much nothing to me. It looked like a joke to me, and even if he raised points explaining this vote later, he didn’t do it then or push it then. I think I will probably ignore it. Palmar - Jabberwockzerg A little later, Palmar starts to sheep the case on Jabberwockzerg. His posts sort of repeat posts by other players. Initially this seemed like it may be scummy (backpacking other players’ reads), but after reading more, I don’t think so. + Show Spoiler + On May 27 2014 21:28 Palmar wrote: Okay I'll be a good sheep. ##vote jabberwockzerg To put in clear terms what the problem I, and clearly others, have is: The point isn't that you screwed it up. The point is that you brought up an argument that you already know is invalid. I don't see any motivation for someone who is town to do that. Unless you can explain why as town it makes sense for you to throw something you know will not help solve the issue at hand into the mix, we're going to have to lynch you. I'm fine with not doing anything else today. This is better than most day 1 lynch opportunities we get. @jabberwockzerg: if you're somehow town, now is your time to step up. - (1) Palmar states he is sheeping, so I don’t see this as an attempt to get credit for another player’s ideas. He credits Chrome as well in his next post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=10#188). - (2) Palmar follows up his thoughts in later posts (ex: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=10#196, http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=10#199). - (3) Palmar argues with JWZ and asks people who are not voting JWZ to vote for JWZ (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=16#312). To me, this is a really natural reaction and consistent with town play. It is possible Palmar is opportunistic scum trying to secure a mislynch, but I don’t feel he would push as much as he did when other players seemed to be agreeing. Further, although I don’t put a ton of credit in associative reads, suspicion of Palmar from sqrt and jabberwockzerg make Palmar seem a little more town to me. I can’t say Palmar is obviously town, but I feel the case on him (voting ninjabunnies d1) just seems so weak that it would “fit” if they are trying to get Palmar as an alternate lynch. Palmar - Meapak_Ziphhh I don’t conclude very much from interactions between Palmar and Meapak_Ziphh… Meapak’s comments on sqrt’s posting style are fair; I like sqrt and have a general sense of his play, but I feel he has been suspected in almost every game for his posting style (maybe in Golden Sun it was for posting frequency, I forget). So, Meapak’s comment on his posting style seems fine to me. This does suggests to me that Meapak-sqrt is a little less likely to be a scum team. Basically, I just feel scum would tend to give each other tips on play in their QT, so they might be less likely to do so in the actual game. I feel like it’s a pretty weak read and it’s not that useful to talk about more now, anyway. Anyway, since I feel like Meapak’s comments on sqrt are fine, I don’t have a read on Meapak from it and don’t agree or disagree with Palmar’s push there. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Fuba I initially liked his point on jabberwockzerg, but looking back it seems like a point that would only get raised by me or a mafia. I don’t know though… his return to voting jabberwock for JWZ’s followup posts seems reasonable to me. He hasn’t talked too much. I am not sure on him. I initially liked fuba’s point on jabberwock quite a bit (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=9#162). But, looking back I am a little confused by it. So, I am in a unique position compared to every other town in this game (because I know I am town) when it comes to jabberwock. Usually, knowing your own alignment is not particularly helpful. However, as someone who was rolled scum last game, I can call out JWZ on who he lists as scum. I know for a certainty JWZ’s post is weak coming from scum because he would know a town player (me) would be able to call him out on it. For everyone else, you don’t know if we might be on the same team. This makes fuba’s comment a little weird to me when I revisit it: it seems like a point that only would get made by me or a mafia. I am not sure, though… he may have (like initially I did) thought Epishade, who rolled scum last game, was still in this game; It seems really unlikely that we’d have 3/3 same people, but 2/2 doesn’t feel so rare. And, I sort of agree with his switch back onto jabberwock because I feel like jabber’s subsequent posts really looked bad to me. I think I detailed it in an earlier post, but it sort of feels like JWZ gave up or admitted he had been caught. Basically, uncertain on fuba for now. My preference was to get more comments and revisit him. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Can you read through my comments on Palmar and let me know what you think? I feel your suspicion of him based on his vote for bunnies is super weak... | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 29 2014 04:34 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Amiko, what do you think of haru? I posted on him just a bit ago and I think you read it...? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=25#499 I think HaruRH is scummy. I am not sure re: jabberwockzerg vs HaruRH... I didn't realize deadline was when it was, so I feel like there may not be time for Haru to respond to my points, whereas jabberwock has had time to respond and responded poorly. That's one reason I want to see more talk on Haru. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 29 2014 04:36 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: hmm I'm a bit suspect of people trying to develop a second wagon at the same time as they're voting JWZ. Either say you've changed your mind about jwz and explain why or start developing reads for tomorrow. ##Vote: jabberwockzerg Thought there was a voting thread lol I think this is a fair point and I feel okay with a JWZ lynch, so I'll place my vote on him. ##Vote: jabberwockzerg However, please comment on HaruRH now. Just because we are okay with a JWZ lynch doesn't mean we can't talk about other possibilities, and this will help me get reads. I am open to moving to HaruRH, and it's fine with me if we talk about him as a potential suspect for tomorrow, too. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 29 2014 04:38 Chromatically wrote: Amiko, I'm most interested in who you want to lynch today. JWZ over HaruRH, but partially because I feel HaruRH may not have time to respond. I am a little loathe to vote JWZ (if I vote HaruRH or don't vote, it puts more pressure on him to answer) but I think timing just doesn't permit that. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Would appreciate your comments on my post on HaruRH. Even if he isn't the lynch today, I'd like to see some discussion of it - I made some points here you can address (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=25#499) or raise your own. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Please comment on my case on Haru. Basically, look at my points and let me know if you think they are legitimate/mistaken. If you blue-read Haruh, whatever, please do not discuss that at all. You can still feel he is town if you want based on that, but I want to know if you think my points make sense. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I understand you are voting JWZ. But can you also give a little more reaction to my points on Palmar? Your post http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=26#511 doesn't really let me know how you feel... like, do you think Palmar is more likely to be town now? Or is it more that you suspect him, but feel JWZ is better after my points? What in my points did you agree with or disagree with the most? | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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I still want answers from you :x http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=25#484 But for just right now, if you want to wait on that and instead comments on HaruRH/JWZ that'd be the bees knees. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
That's fair. I don't want you to feel like you have to play silly (but, I want you to be able to play silly if that's what you enjoy). (I'd still like a read from you on slOosh since he seems to be giving a lot of attention to your posts) Can you give comments on my points on Haru? I am not voting for him, but Haru is my second choice after JWZ. I think JWZ is still my pick for today even though I like mderg's point. Could you let me know what you think of Haru? If I was going to vote someone other than JWZ it would be Haru. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I do townread Palmar for his play d1. But, I do think his meta works against a townread on him. Palmar self-described himself as follows in the "game of champions" "Traditionally I am a very strong town player and a mediocre scum player. My greatest strengths in mafia is first and foremost a very strong day 1, and the ability to lead and influence towns." http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59/puzzles-other-games/3-game-mafia-champions-ww-invitational-game-thread-1428519/index2.html I won't talk about that game very much because I don't want to make Palmar cry (I didn't read the whole thing anyway, but I am not sure the players did either) (j/k you guys were pretty cool). On a meta-level, I don't think I'd say Palmar has led town D1, it feels more like he has played a supportive role by encouraging the lynch on JWZ. It does make it a little more possible that he is opportunistic mafia pushing for a lynch. I still feel better about my townread, though. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think we are more likely to hit scum with this than if our votes were scattered across a lot of players, since then mafia would have a chance to manipulate the votes. I would have liked to see 3-4 votes on someone else but I feel like that ship has sailed. To me the problem was/is that we don't get much information from this vote besides his role. There's a few things I'm comfortable drawing from the current votes (Ex: The scumteam probably is not a three-person combination of 27ninjabunnies/HaruRH/fuba because they were the first three to vote on jabber and it seems like an over-commitment to lynch a VT who doesn't have a history). But, it's pretty sparse from my point of view. I guess I just don't see a choice. For what it's worth, I don't think non-response by jabber is that indicative. Most (all?) of my forum games had a mislynch D1, in some the town players talked back a lot and in others they quietly died. I do think the responses we did get were suspicious, though. Yeah, the votes could be better. Basically if we get scum we did good, if we hit town we go into d2 without information from votes. I think it's okay since there has been a fair amount of discussion around the lynch and some alternatives were raised, too. (I'll still be here if Haru wants to scumclaim though :3_ | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 29 2014 08:38 Palmar wrote: We're not last minuting off this wagon. If it's a mislynch we can deal with it. Stop proposing these alternative wagons. Why? If we all have the same primary scum wagon, I think it's good to see how people think on secondary scumwagons. I'll grant the information isn't too reliable (since the secondary wagons don't have much chance of being lynched) but I think it's good to see people making cases on other players. | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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Amiko
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Amiko
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I've been in thread a little too long but I'll come back and try to read end of D1 and post some thoughts when I get back. FYI I prefer to talk at night, just not about roles or night actions by town or scum. If you don't want to talk at night because you are afraid of dying or something, please write up something so you can post it just before night ends or at the beginning of the day so the time isn't wasted. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 29 2014 09:52 Blazinghand wrote: Vote count: jabberwockzerg (11) - 27ninjabunnies, HaruRH, fuba (1) - sqrtofneg1 Meapak_Ziphh (2) - mderg, jabberwockzerg 27ninjabunnies (0) - Palmar(0) - Here's some vote thoughts. These are ignoring comments in game and just seeing if the votes get me anything. - At least one mafia voted on jabberwockzerg (because there are 3 mafia, but only two votes other than jabberwockzerg's that are on anyone else). - I don't clear sqrt/mderg for not voting on jabber since the other wagons came late enough I don't feel they were viable. There are other things that weigh for/against them which I can discuss later. - It'd be pretty crazy if the scumteam was 27ninjabunnies/HaruRH/fuba since they voted jabber very early, before most players had commented on the case or taken a stance. At that time I feel the case wasn't super strong, so I feel like that'd be an over-commitment by scum. I don't see too much else I can say here... if anyone else has thoughts on the votes I'd appreciate hearing them. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I have some additional concerns regarding your last few posts. Please respond since it'll help me read you. (1) Position on JWZ vs. Palmar Look at the parts of these two posts- On May 29 2014 09:08 HaruRH wrote: (snip) You need to read all the points in context - I suggested for jabber to change topics, but his reply and subsequent posts were questionable or scummy. But he is not definitely scum, but more likely to be scum than others. I would give it a 30% probability he is scum, 50% shit play and 20% VT. in fact, it is not surprising for people in this newbie game to get baited by this simple setup bait. Read the posts after this post, you should know what I mean. On May 29 2014 09:13 HaruRH wrote: In fact, palmar seemed to have been baited. It is obvious to VT that we dont know the setup - but palmar is second guessing his own decision of not knowing the setup. A townie will not state 'I don't think', but use stronger words that indicate full understanding of the rules. Therefore, palmar is either scum or ignorant and I would go with scum. I will keep an eye out for more of his posts. It seems from these posts that you have a fairly weak read on JWZ as scum at the time of the posts (30% town, 20% mafia). You seemed to have a more certain scumread on Palmar. I'm confused why your vote stays on JWZ. Is Palmar currently your top scum? (2) Setup Comments No one in the game could know the setup at this point regardless of their alignment/role (unless they are somehow a genius and have determined the power roles). So why do you feel Palmar saying he's not sure about the setup is scummy since lack of knowledge would come from town or scum? I guess it does evidence that he didn't read the OP, but I have seen town and scum both do that (for example, one or two newbie games back a few players thought they had a cop when they had a parity cop). | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I like Slam a little more than Sloosh, but both are still a little difficult to read for me. I just thought it was kinda weird that they were interacting with each other so much, and Sloosh had a comment or two on Slam that seemed a little strange... not sure. I will try to ask Sloosh some questions tomorrow. @Palmar: Could you explain your read on Haru? He wasn't in the list in your last post, and you had said somewhat recently you thought he was probably town (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=23#456). | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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On May 29 2014 04:14 slOosh wrote: Oh I must have missed it. His posting style as is this game seems fine. I was more concerned if he was going to take it all the way ala last game, which is cause for concern as making your posts intentionally harder to read usually only makes sense from scum perspective. I haven't looked at your past games, but have you played with or read Alakaslam before? He sometimes has chaotic/silly posts so I feel like although your point (confusing posts makes sense from scum) may not apply so much in this case. Is there any particular reason you seem to focus attention on him on d1? If you disagree with that characterization let me know. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I am still thinking through Palmar's case (Haru & slOosh have a little more attention right now) but I do feel like this fits into what Palmar was saying regarding M_Z. I guess it's possible M_Z didn't want to push sqrt yet (since there was already a mislynch wagon on JWZ) and would be raising sqrt as suspicious afterward. I don't know but I'll dig a little more :3 | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Do you think Palmar/sqrt is a potential scumteam? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 30 2014 03:05 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Okay guys, question time. After jwz's lynch, what can you gather from his filter? Not much, unfortunately. I think summary of JWZ is: Scumreads: Palmar (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=19#377, http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=19#369) Townreads: Anyone who defended him (I guess maybe fuba/mderg?) I also learned jabberwockzerg seems really nice ;_;7 | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(1) Fuba raised some points on you D1. Do you think his case is more likely to come from scum or mafia? (2) One argument you raised re: Fuba was that he joined the JWZ vote without stating reasons. Do you think that criticism is true for any other players? (3) If you have any thoughts on slOosh/M_Z I'd like to hear them. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think my primary for today will be to focus on Haru / slOosh / M_Z. I didn't read slOosh enough yesterday so I'll see where I end up on each of these players in a little bit. I'll be around thread for a bit too if anyone wants to talk. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I made some points on Haru. I still think his responses are still pretty weird. For instance, this is from his last post- On May 30 2014 07:33 HaruRH wrote: Lets rank some scumreads 1) palmar 30% scum 10% ignorance (can easily turn into scum if he is caught not being ignorant but scummy play) 60% VT 2) sqrt 20% scum ( his play is wishy washy) 80 % VT 3) mderg 20% scum ( reading off his filter makes me want to point things out, yet have nothing to point. Weird.) 80% VT The rest have either a low scumread due to their post types (slam/sloosh) or because they presented their alignment quickly (Chrom/27) “Low” Scumreads (High Scumreads = 30%?) First, look at the second paragraph of the quote above. He is stating he has a low scumread on slam, slosh, chrom, and 27ninjabunnies. The way it’s written, it seems like this means that these players have a low scumread, as opposed to the other players he’s discussed. But, if you look at the post above, his reads on Palmar/sqrt/mderg are 30% scum or 20% scum. This doesn’t feel right to me – if I thought someone was 80% town VT, I think I would consider that a townread on that player, not a scumread. I’ll also mention that to me, his reads are weird (Palmar and mderg both seem towny to me right now). @MHaru: If you understand my point here, can you clarify your reads here? You could talk about Palmar – I think his play yesterday is sort of three parts – 1) vote on bunnies, 2) pushing the jabber case, 3) interactions with M_Z. I’d appreciate your comments on his interactions with M_Z the most, if those contributed to your read, since I think M_Z should get some attention today. Could you also explain what you mean by the “post types” for Alakaslam and slOosh? Although the two interacted, I feel like they post in different ways so I’m not sure what you mean. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I'm going through slOosh now. Do you think his join onto the JWZ vote also fits what we were discussing (on fuba and Alakaslam)? I know we are still just starting D2, but if you were going to pick between MHaru and SlOosh which do you think would be a better wagon? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Please give me your read on slOosh. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 28 2014 07:17 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: *sigh* I hate when people say this. Dude, always vote for who you think is scummiest. Lynching for information comes off as a scum setting up their justification for when the lynched person flips green. If you don't want him dead because you think he's scum then you shouldn't be voting for him. I'm working on another post I might have to finish tomorrow morning. But, I was rereading everyone's filter and as a nod to Palmar, this also seems in line with your concerns regarding Meapak "wanting" to townread sqrt. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Two questions: On May 29 2014 11:46 Alakaslam wrote: Mderg is town. On May 29 2014 11:58 Alakaslam wrote: I will toss wise in there too. (1) What does the second post mean? I assume "wise" is a person but I don't know who. On May 28 2014 15:22 Amiko wrote: What did I agree with you about? I don't think I've really interacted with you this game besides a quick comment on your playstyle which wasn't direct. So I am confused a little by this post. (2) Could you answer this one? I'm not sure what you were referring to as far as agreeing | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
There’s other things that I think support scumreading him, but I think this is the best point so I want to start here and build. I think the central point is: After voting jabber, slOosh does nothing to develop his feelings on jabber. He doesn't try to get explanations from jabber or even follow up after jabber's responses This is the post where slOosh joins the vote for jabber. On May 28 2014 02:09 slOosh wrote: Seems straightforward. ##Vote: jabberwockzerg Initially, this is worrisome because slOosh is joining the wagon in a noncommittal way. He isn’t stating what he agrees or disagrees with. This is a “+1” post. This is potentially scummy because it’s bandwagoning without commitment. But the remainder of the day is what turns from suspicious to scummy. After his vote, slOosh does almost nothing on the lynch on jabber. So, take a look at other players’ actions D1. Other players question jabber – they are not sure on the lynch, so they want to get more information or talk about the issue more with other players. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- slOosh's D1 is different from almost every other player D1 because of his lack of interaction or followup on slOosh I went through every players' filter and I think almost all of them (maybe not Slam) support my read on slOosh as uninterested in the jabber lynch. This is a little long so I'll put it in a spoiler, but I really invite you to read through it. + Show Spoiler + 27Ninjabunnies: Many tons of interaction with jabber after she votes on him. + Show Spoiler + GOSH THERE ARE SO MANY EXAMPLES. Here’s just a few – even after raising the case and voting jabber, bunnies asks him numerous questions to get more information. There’s significant back and forth between them. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=6#116 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=7#126 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=8#145 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=8#150 I’m not going to list them all, there are plenty, look at bunnies’ filter, they are all over. She is not set on the lynch. This is the kind of reaction I would expect from town. Meapak_Ziphh doesn’t interact with jabber much, but he does comment on the case numerous times through D1 and explaining how he feels on the lynch. His filter doesn’t look as good as bunnies to me – he doesn’t really ask jabber anything directly or necessarily stir up discussion. I think he's kind of suspicious anyway, but he’s still better than slOosh. + Show Spoiler + Discusses reasons for joining vote - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=14#262 Says which situation he thinks is most likely - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=15#286 Still thinks jabber is best lynch - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=16#306 Directs comments to jabber (admittedly not in a helpful or inquisitive way) - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=17#333 Gobbledydook: starts off with some hesitancy on the lynch and gives fair reasons, explains his thoughts as he goes, addresses comments to jabber as well. + Show Spoiler + Comments on lynch - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=9#161 Shows more certainty after jabber’s responses - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=16#308 Explains his comment - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=16#313 Addresses comments to jabber - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=20#383 HaruRH: A lot of Haru’s talk about JWZ is responsive, but he does address JWZ directly as well and comments on the lynch multiple times through d1. As an aside, rereading Haru’s talk D1 is the main reasons I now want to push slOosh over Haru. I still have doubts, for sure, but Haru’s level of interactionwith jabber feels so much higher than slOosh’s. + Show Spoiler + Talks to JWZ telling him to look elsewhere - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=7#130 Discusses his interactions with JWZ (this is in response to a direct question, though) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=7#137 Gives updates on play (again responses to question) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=9#165 Points out something he sees as scummy http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=9#179 Talks with JWZ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=9#180 Explains thoughts (response) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=16#316 Comments on jabber http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=29#566 (more in filter) Sqrt: Sqrt was around when the case was made on jabber and interacted some with jabber and the players involved. He does ask jabber some questions and comments on jabber’s subsequent posts + Show Spoiler + Joking to jabber http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=6#113 Commenting on jabber’s response http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=6#115 Goes through reasons after voting http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=13#259, http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=15#289 Specifically says jabber is his top scum http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=16#305 Comments on jabber’s subsequent posts http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=18#344 Asks for clarification from jabber http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=19#379 Alakaslam: Ehh slam doesn’t really do much better than slOosh in this respect. He does have a little more on JWZ but it’s not too substantial either. + Show Spoiler + Initial explanation of vote on jabber: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=12#240 More explanation/thought on jabber: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=14#261 Mderg, Fuba, Palmar: I’m not going back into their filters because I did a lot already, and I know these players talked a lot about the jabber wagon on D1 so I don’t really want to post links on them for no reason. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So I just went through all these players. Why? It’s certainly possible for mafia to ask questions to jabber. They probably did! But, it is really hard for me to believe that town joins a vote on jabber, yet doesn’t seem to revisit the issue, talk about its merits with other players, or get some sort of confirmation from jabber. Pretty much every player in the game discussed the jabber lynch to some extent. Maybe we questioned jabber, or we explained our thoughts on why it could be a natural mistake, a scumslip, what jabber’s followup comments meant to us, etc. slOosh doesn’t ask any questions to jabber, or really follow up on the lynch. We get his explanation here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=12#229). After voting for jabber, slOosh's D1 is questioning other players on why they vote for jabber, talking about Slam & Palmar, etc. Seriously, take a look at his filter and see how little he has to say about the lynch that was there basically the entire day. Wheres other players expressed doubt through trying to get more information, press jabber for more information, etc., If you are town, you (like me) did not know whether jabber was mafia or not. You talked about the lynch, you read jabber's responses, and you probably considered them and wrote something about your reads. slOosh's d1 reflects indifference to the lynch. I feel that indifference comes from scum. ##Vote: slOosh | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
slOosh's D1 is different from almost every other player D1 because of his lack of interaction or followup on slOosh should be slOosh's D1 is different from almost every other player D1 because of his lack of interaction or followup on jabber :x | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 30 2014 06:35 Chromatically wrote: (cut) One thing I thought was weird when I reread the early part of the day was how people rationalized their sheep onto jabber. I think that scum would not want to sheep on purely on the basis of the "slip", because scum would know that the slip had to come from town and was not actually scummy. So, scum would want to add additional justification. Sloosh doesn't actually speak out against the slip at all, as someone would do if they actually disagreed with it. He just adds this additional (pretty weak) justification on top of it. This doesn't feel like his original vote post, which appears like he's voting purely for reasons already stated: Scum sloosh would feel awkward about pushing jabber based on his not-actually-scummy slip. So when he is asked for justification for his vote, he feels the need to add something else that isn't actually that strong. He doesn't want to look like he's just sheeping AND he doesn't want to sheep on the slip that he knows is false. His filter doesn't look like he's trying to solve the game at all. He's got some softball questions to people, but doesn't push or pressure anyone. He almost never gives his actual thoughts on anything. (cut) I'm unfortunately out of time so I can't get to the rest of the people but that's what I really wanted to hit on. Top two scum are Sloosh and MZ. Just to be clear, Chrom’s points are not good because he died. Mafia can kill people whether they are right or wrong. Chrom's post here is good because he points out slOosh’s weak justification, filter that doesn’t seem to be searching for information, and softball questions from slOosh that reflect that slOosh is not trying to figure out the game. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
That's fair. I was going to wait to finish the case later, but figured I should post sooner so he can defend/explain. I feel pretty good voting slOosh now, though, because to me the scummy actions are spread out over the course of the day. It's not a scumslip comment where there's one thing to explain - here, there's a pattern of action (well, inaction). On May 30 2014 14:31 HaruRH wrote: Town sloosh may not talk much and elaborate since it is still day 1, a bandwagon is forming out of control and he is a VT with nothing much to do. This raises another point I think I can bring up that weighs in favor of seeing slOosh as scummy. slOosh has played mafia on forums previously. From the database post: + Show Spoiler + On December 25 2012 14:00 kitaman27 wrote: Newbie Mini Mafia III Town Medic Survived Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII Town Vanilla Endgamed Newbie Mini Mafia IV Mafia Vanilla Survived C9++ Mini Mafia Town Vanilla Survived The Sum of All Fears Mafia Town KGB Agent Killed Night 2 TL Mafia Area LIII Town Vanilla Killed Night 1 Liar Game Mini Mafia Town Vanilla Endgamed TL Mafia LIV Town Vanilla Killed Night 1 Pick Your Power: Redux Town Parity Cop Killed Night 3 Pick Your Poison Mafia Town Innocent Child Survived Normal Mini Mafia II Town Miller Lynched Day 3 Bureaucracy Mafia! Mafia Chairman of the Board Killed Night 4 Mad Men Mafia Town Miller Killed Night 1 Dwarf Fortress Mini Mafia Town Mafia Survived TL Mafia LVII Third Party Assassin Victory Day 4 Liquid City Mafia Mafia Vanilla Survived Parallel World Mafia Mafia Balrog Killed Night 6 Dessert Mini Mafia Third Party Bulletproof Lynched Day 2 Nomination Mafia Town Vanilla Lynched Night 3 Personality Mafia 2 Town Caller Endgamed Night 3 Carnival Cruise Mafia Mafia Hammerer Lynched Day 4 Roulette Mini Mafia Town Vanilla Killed Night 1 Catch 22 Mafia Town Ghost Survived Day 0 Sicilian Mafia Style Mafia Vanilla Lynched Day 3 World Heavyweight Championship mafia Town Vanilla Lynched Day 2 Okay, to be fair the last game listed here was back in 9/2013, so I don't feel like a meta read on him is likely to be that all that reliable. And, it's not like someone is going to be great at mafia just because they have played it a few times. However, I do feel like having prior games makes it less likely he would see the wagon on jabber as "out of control" or that he "wouldn't have much to do" - VTs have as much work to do as power roles do on D1, if not more. Even then, it doesn't make sense why slOosh would be basically the only player who isn't attentive to the jabberwock wagon. I think that just doesn't make sense from a town point of view. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
First look at this post by slOosh, we’ll then talk about how it differs from other players. On May 29 2014 04:05 slOosh wrote: I think with the deadline as is, if you want to bring up someone else you should do it immediately. So, when you are offered the idea of a new wagon, you might expect a few responses. Players might propose some additional wagons, or use the situation to make reads. (ex: 27ninjabunnies, sqrt, fuba) + Show Spoiler + 27ninjabunnies: Suggests fuba as a potential other wagon (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=24#471, http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=25#496). Suggests me as a potential wagon (as a reaction test) (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=25#486). Sqrt: Proposed other wagons, even ended up voting on one. Gave some reasons, even if kind of weird, why he jumped around the wagons. Was pushing for second wagons and suggested some. Fuba: Suggested wagon on gobbledygook (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=28#556) Players might comment on the idea of other wagons as good or bad. (ex: mderg, M_Z, Palmar) + Show Spoiler + mderg: Comments on my proposal of Haru as a second wagon (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=27#540). Comments on fuba’s proposal of a gobbledygook wagon (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=29#561). M_Z: Says he is suspicious of players making secondary wagons while voting for jabber (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=26#509). Also discusses Palmar as a lynch candidate, but indicates he is skeptical (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=31#603). Palmar: Tells us not to raise other wagons (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=29#565) (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=29#572) and comments on the push on himself as an alternate wagon (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=24#468) Alakaslam: Like Palmar, states he does not want alternate wagons (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=27#533). Some players don't weigh in on wagons as much, but this is at least somewhat less suspicious because they spend some time defending wagons on themselves (gobbledygook, Haru). + Show Spoiler + gobbledydook doesn’t comment much on the existence of other wagons, but he does defend again fuba’s suggestion of him as an alternate wagon. HaruRH is kind of similar in that he defends against my points on him, though he does comment some on a potential Palmar wagon it’s limited. slOosh’s comments (above) are different. He doesn’t indicate whether he wants another wagon or not – he waits to see who is proposed Here are ALL OF SLOOSH’S POSTS that come after we are discussing a second wagon until the vote. I was going to put this in a spoiler tag, but then I saw how few posts there were so why bother. On May 29 2014 03:38 slOosh wrote: I assume he was piggybacking on the "seems straightforward" aspect. @Amiko, what do you mean by second wagon? What does that look like? On May 29 2014 03:54 slOosh wrote: Did the term wagon change while I was gone? Are you guys proposing lynching someone else today? On May 29 2014 04:05 slOosh wrote: I think with the deadline as is, if you want to bring up someone else you should do it immediately. On May 29 2014 04:14 slOosh wrote: Oh I must have missed it. His posting style as is this game seems fine. I was more concerned if he was going to take it all the way ala last game, which is cause for concern as making your posts intentionally harder to read usually only makes sense from scum perspective. When I raise a wagon (as he says I should do soon) he doesn't even comment on it. So, as I said before, slOosh is scum because he doesn't weigh in on jabber, who should be a focus for the day. But, slOosh is also scum because he doesn't weigh in on any of the other wagons (Palmar, Haru, fuba) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@Alakaslam re: wise (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=35#688) Oh, I just got confused by the post. For some reason I thought you were saying mderg is town, wise is also town. I get it now @Pamar re: M_Z On May 30 2014 18:23 Palmar wrote: ##vote Meapak_Ziphh Dude's calling me town for thinking he's mafia. Classic scum. I am not entirely opposed to M_Z, but when I read them both I came away feeling there were a lot more reasons to doubt slOosh and I want you to vote with me today. slOosh is scummy based on repeated action/inaction. M_Z is suspicious for sure, but to me there's a lot more reasons (and stronger reasons!) to vote slOosh. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 30 2014 16:42 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Harurh, Palmar is almost certainly town at this point fyi. imo Amiko's case on slOosh is excellent, I'm curious to see who opposes it. Currently I hope the votes today will be on slOosh, but you are getting pressure, too. If my case is excellent, why not hop onto slOosh now so you can be a hipster with me and do it before it's cool? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I was already sure I was going to make a case on slOosh when I asked you for your thoughts, but I was able to feel good about you as town for raising the points you did before I committed to the case. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(1) He says he did not push jabber because wanted to see what jabber did if jabber was left alone. (2) He wanted to push other people, to maybe provide avenues for jabber to contribute. #1 This isn't that arguable, but it's more likely to come from scum. Jabber was left alone and he made comments that didn’t help us read him as town. Why would scum want to interject if jabber is doing a good job burying himself? At least slOosh does concedes that he didn’t push jabber, though, so you don’t need to read his filter to confirm that he didn’t push on jabber. Further, slOosh doesn't comment or push on jabber's subsequent posts. So, if he actually cared what jabber did, why did he seem to ignore what jabber did? #2 This is not a good explanation because it is not consistent with his play. As I pointed out here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=36#716), slOosh really did not push other players, despite a few other wagons forming as options. I don’t see him providing new points on the players or providing a line of questioning that jabber could jump into. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 30 2014 22:13 mderg wrote: I like the case on sloosh. I feel like it could just be lazy town, though. His play could make sense, if he took the jwz lynch for granted and didn´t really follow up on it because of that. Still he´s definitely high up in the list of suspects. I still think MZ is scummy. I already made my case on him and I feel like it still stands. ##vote: Meapak_Ziphh So I agree that M_Z has some scummy comments. But going through your case on Meapak (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=29#562), I think you could vote slOosh for the same reasons. (1) You suspect M_Z because he doesn't make a case to follow up on suspicious. slOosh doesn't make a case, and it's arguable whether he even makes suspicions. slOosh is scummier on this point. (2) You feel M_Z is scummy because he seems open to a Palmar lynch, but doesn't give reasons why. slOosh's comment about other wagons don't even say who he might be open to as an alternative, much less the reasons why. slOosh is scummier on this point. (3) You actually like a few things on M_Z's comments regarding jabber. I don't know if you like anything on slOosh. But either way, slOosh doesn't even focus on jabber. I think it's way more suspicious to basically ignore the main lynch candidate for the day. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 31 2014 06:58 sqrtofneg1 wrote: @amiko, just for clarification, you also think MZ is scummy, but you think sloosh is scummier, am I correct? Yeah, that's a fair description. I think most of the complaints about M_Z apply to slOosh, except moreso. And slOosh is scummy for other reasons, too. As an aside, I don't see slOosh voting M_Z as meaning they can't be on the same team... from my point of view they are the two best wagons right now. If slOosh wants to live, I think M_Z is probably the best alternate wagon for him to push on. I'm only here for a bit right now I'll try to post more this evening | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@slOosh - You did make a defense against my larger case (I don't find it convincing). Do you have any separate response to the points Chrom raised on you from D1? - What do you think is your best post from D1? Or like, the best thing you did D1? - Do you have any recent thoughts on Palmar/sqrt/Alakaslam? @bunnies: slOosh/palmar/M_Z is possible, but if so scum really likes to push each other. I mean, I don't feel that slOosh and M_Z pushing each other makes them not scum, but I feel like the interactions with M_Z<->Palmar make them less likely to both be scum. And I remember Palmar was reading the scumteam as slOosh/M_Z/gobble so I wonder if he would list both teammates as scumreads he would be willing to lynch? I have some other comments but they can wait until later if I remember them. I have a meeting thing in the morning so I'm not too sure where I will be tomorrow, I will try hard to be here before votes. If anyone feels like being helpful, please talk with (M_Z about Sloosh) and (Sloosh about M_Z) some because I meant to do that and then got tired. vote sloosh though :3 night!! | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
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How do you not vote slOosh when nearly everything suspicious about M_Z also applies to slOosh, plus slOosh is scummier in other ways? @Palmar: You should also join my lynch on slOosh because fuba's play today is weird and he is pushing M_Z - if you don't see that I can argue about it. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@Fuba: Can you clarify - do you actually think M_Z is scummier than slOosh? Or is your vote on M_Z just because you liked slOosh's last post? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 01 2014 08:08 fuba wrote: And to be clear, I've been reading Amiko as townie, but I feel that sloosh's reaction of considering him possibly scum because of the nature of this lynch makes sloosh more likely to be town. So it's clear to me that you are townreading slOosh. You feel his last post outweighs everything I wrote, enough that you townread him? And what is "the nature of the lynch" - I thought you were townreading him based on his responses in his last post? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Is slOosh "too scummy to be scum" ? Like do you agree slOosh is scummier, but you want to go M_Z because people are voting for slOosh? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
If you are willing to go with weak ways of playing the game that ignore a scummy history of a player, it also seems possible scum is WIFOMing and trying to make the slOosh lynch look "too easy" especially since that was somewhat compelling to people D1. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(1) Do you think it's possible that you are getting played because of your reactions d1? I mean I was just writing that may be happening, since to me you seem like the prime person who might switch based on this "too easy" argument. (2) Can you at least agree that fuba's play is weird today? He joined the thread making a case on you as if he was just stopping by and had been active in the thread On May 31 2014 15:45 fuba wrote: I'm glad you mentioned sqrt, because he's someone who's stuck out to me. but yet he doesn't discuss the active topics (Meepak & slOosh) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 01 2014 09:00 Palmar wrote: Doesn't matter. My case on MZ is far more slam dunk than yours on sloosh. What applies to M_Z that doesn't apply to slOosh? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(also my case is way better than yours, btw) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@sqrt: Yesterday fuba was content to go with a bandwagon on jabber. He kept his vote on jabber. Today he is afraid of a bandwagon that is going too easily. Yesterday's wagon went more easily. Today he is concerned. WAT | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@sqrt since I feel like I might actually convince you, do you really think it is likely that you complete today townreading slOosh? Like, maybe it's possible you are unsure between M_Z and slOosh. But how do you townread slOosh? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I like bunnies too, although she wasn't active today her post on slOosh was pretty much exactly the kind of post in response - it showed reconsidering and suspicion on grounds I obviously feel are super valid. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I had to convince haru and mderg too, I think. (btw vote counters, sorry I didn't notice but mderg voted Meepak initially http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=36#701) | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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Amiko
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I mean, I don't feel like I can answer that adequately on the fly because I'm not sure I have a good answer for a third even if I spend some time on it. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I feel like his comment that his case on M_Z is better than mine is just wrong, so wrong, and that bugs me. :C This is the same problem I had with fuba. If you feel like maybe slOosh is scum because of the votes, well, that's a bad point but I at least get that it seems compelling after yesterday. But I don't agree at all with reading slOosh as town based on his post today, or the idea that the M_Z case is at all better I'm not gonna get groceries :c I'll go later I guess | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Do you think M_Z is scummier than slOosh? Or is it purely that you don't like votes that have majorities? Do you really feel today's wagon is "easy" like yesterday? I just don't. There's been resistance and other cases... | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 01 2014 09:28 Amiko wrote: @sqrt: Do you think M_Z is scummier than slOosh? Or is it purely that you don't like votes that have majorities? Do you really feel today's wagon is "easy" like yesterday? I just don't. There's been resistance and other cases... | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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Do you think those aren't convincing? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 31 2014 05:54 Amiko wrote: @mderg: I want your vote!! So I agree that M_Z has some scummy comments. But going through your case on Meapak (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=29#562), I think you could vote slOosh for the same reasons. (1) You suspect M_Z because he doesn't make a case to follow up on suspicious. slOosh doesn't make a case, and it's arguable whether he even makes suspicions. slOosh is scummier on this point. (2) You feel M_Z is scummy because he seems open to a Palmar lynch, but doesn't give reasons why. slOosh's comment about other wagons don't even say who he might be open to as an alternative, much less the reasons why. slOosh is scummier on this point. (3) You actually like a few things on M_Z's comments regarding jabber. I don't know if you like anything on slOosh. But either way, slOosh doesn't even focus on jabber. I think it's way more suspicious to basically ignore the main lynch candidate for the day. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
What is wrong? also @Palmar and @fuba you should be answering this too | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I don't think it can be lazy town when you don't discuss any of the wagons at all, especially after you tell someone to bring any they have up | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I want you to reveal this was all a clever ploy to get scum to move onto M_Z and that you are now going to move back to slOosh. pls | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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Do you really feel like your words should have this much impact? | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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Explain this before the flip please. (1) Are you townreading slOosh (like fuba is?) (2) Did you move off M_Z because of slOosh's post? Because of the vote patterns? (3) Disregarding the other points, who do you feel is actually scummier? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(Okay the moment passed) I'm gonna go get groceries, you can talk about how cool I am for when I get back though. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 01 2014 10:16 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Surprise. I had a huge case written out against amiko, but that ruins it all. Would you mind posting it? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Ok I'll be back later and we'll do more work. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@Meepak_Ziphh, I think you are (justifiably) the presumptive lynch tomorrow. If you are town, please pick your top scumread(s) and make cases. -- I only have a few initial thoughts right now - I'm pretty familiar with slOosh's filter, but I'd appreciate if you guys take a look over day 2 and see if that gives you anything. Please do me a favor and read gobble's filter to see if anything sticks out. I have some setup speculation I might share tomorrow based off Alakaslam claiming roleblock d1. If I'm alive tomorrow remind me and I can share it. I don't know whether to put much emphasis to put on the players who moved their votes around at the end of the day. There's only one mafia still alive, so it's clear at least some of these players were town. @sqrt & @HaruRH: Would you both explain your doubts on Palmar? I think I asked before, but give me your current feelings. I'm asking you both in particular because you both name M_Z as the best lynch for tomorrow. Palmar seemed to want to lynch M_Z solidly through D2... so, why do you feel Palmar is the second scummiest player? I'm not going to weigh in on my feelings here, but I think this needs some explanation. Also @sqrt, @ninjabunnies: What do you make of HaruRH's end of day comments? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
- Thoughts on day 2 - Thoughts on voting at the end of the day - Any vote analysis thoughts you have - Anything in the filters from slOosh/gobble that you find meaningful If you have scumreads on M_Z / Palmar / whoever, weigh in and say if it has changed at all based on the stuff above. And yeah we are in a great position with 8 town vs 1 scum, but please don't start making plans for the next few days when we have just gotten a fair amount of new information. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@sqrt, @Alakaslam: Look at slOosh's death post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=38#747) Then, could tell me what you think of this post: On June 01 2014 11:32 HaruRH wrote: In fact, I think we should lynch everyone on sloosh's 'death list'. @HaruRH: Please hold off on explaining that comment until after at least one of them responds. Would you tell me what you think of Alakaslam's day 2? (I also have that question earlier for you and sqrt regarding Palmar/M_Z.) Palmar: On June 01 2014 10:20 Palmar wrote: Crossing fingers for 3/3 but now I'm not so sure On June 01 2014 17:52 Palmar wrote: I really don't care. If I'm wrong on MZ we'll cross that bridge when we get there. First post indicates some hesitancy on M_Z. Second post returns to being fairly sure. Would you explain the concerns you had in the first post and why you dismissed them? @mderg: I dunno. Do you want me to talk about anything in particular? I might not give you a response till a post just before night ends, though. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think attempting to plan out our lynch for tomorrow is not useful discussion. We can figure out the best lynch for tomorrow tomorrow. I don't hate that they talked about it though, cause it gives me something to pressure them on (M_Z / Palmar as the first two scum, and whether to follow slOosh's death list and what that means) IMO tonight is better served rereading what we already have with new knowledge (that gobble & slOosh are both confirmed scum). We saw people at the end of d2 talk about how the day and votes had such great information- so why aren't we seeing people attempt to use anything in d2 to justify their points? | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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On June 02 2014 02:41 Amiko wrote: @sqrt, @Alakaslam: Look at slOosh's death post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=38#747) Then, could tell me what you think of this post: I would like to hear from sqrt/Alakaslam on this first, but do take a look at this even if you stay quiet since I it gave me some thoughts on Haru. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@fuba You should weigh in at some point whether you think your case on sqrt stands, or if anything has changed to make him more or less suspicious to you. Your case yesterday basically got ignored because the focus was on slOosh vs M_Z, it's something I think we should discuss at least somewhat tomorrow. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Haru wants to lynch "everyone on sloosh's 'death list'" If you look at slOosh's death list, would you list each player Haru wants to lynch? | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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Here's what I was getting at- Haru says he wants to lynch according to slOosh's death list. If it's everyone on the list, then it would go M_Z -> gobble (already dead) -> bunnies -> (maybe Palmar? he is only mentioned in relation to bunnies) -> Fuba -> Me It's unclear if he means the same order, but it seems strange that he would reference the list when I'm on it and he's townreading me. I am not sure what Haru's current read of bunnies is, so I guess I don't know if it is consistent that she is on the list. I'll say if he Haru did mean the same order slOosh had, it is also inconsistent with his other posts around the same time where he wants lynch M_Z, then Palmar (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=43#857). As an aside, this post by Haru is also weird- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=42#837 Here, he is indicating if slOosh's flipped scum and gobble was not modkilled, we would have followed slOosh's last post and suspected gobble. But, slOosh flipped mafia... so I feel like the natural response would be to mistrust what mafia says in their final posts. (maybe I'm just salty because Haru is more willing to sheep a dead mafia than me :D) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 02 2014 05:06 Alakaslam wrote: Oh lol sloosh only wants to kill m-z Lol Yeah exactly You can read Haru as saying he only wants to kill the people slOosh list as scum. But in that case, Haru's post makes no sense - why would he follow a "list" of one person? If you read it the other way, that he wants to lynch everyone slOosh mentioned regardless, it includes me and bunnies, and maybe include Palmar and maybe doesn't, which is also weird. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 02 2014 05:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I'm actually happy dying for the cause since I'm not gonna lie I've played a very shitty game. My one request is that you all agree to lynch a target of my choice after I die. So you think your play is bad, but you want us to sheep you on a lynch? :| | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
You shouldn't be limited to just the things I asked you about. @M_Z I am not going to agree to lynch someone you pick just to get content from you that you should be providing already :x | ||
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Amiko
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As before, of you are roleblocked or medic saved, claim it in your first post of the day (scum will know that information anyway). My reads right now are as follows (town to scum): Ninjabunnies / Mderg Alakaslam Fuba Palmar Sqrt HaruRH / M_Z I’ll give explanations where I can. I’m not certain on anyone, but I feel good on my ninja and mderg townread, at least. Towny! I read mderg as town because I agree with his posts again and again. I like that moved from M_Z to slOosh for reasons I obviously thought were valid, but I also don’t feel he needed to bus a teammate (slOosh) to try to get town cred. 27Ninjabunnies hasn’t been as active, but feelings are pretty similar. When she gives me thoughts, they are usually feel in line with mine. I saw her play shift between active and inactive in another newbie game where she was town, so her low activity doesn’t bother me right now. Towny? Slam: is a weaker read. His play is not super towny, but when he does comment I usually like it. I don’t know if he was actually here during the D2 vote shifting (he posted a while before saying he was in and out, and posted a while after) but he didn’t swap votes and this suggests he could have. Fuba? - Don’t like that Fuba joined the conversation d2 making a case on sqrt, particularly since it seemed like he was just dropping in. The case felt out of place, he should have commented on slOosh or M_Z off the bat. - Really disliked this comment in fuba’s case on sqrt: On May 31 2014 15:45 fuba wrote: His reason for unvoting jabber and voting palmar was that lynches like that end up being wrong. It turns out that he was right, but isn't that a really, really strange reason to unvote someone when you have legitimate reasons to believe he's scum in front of you? I really disliked that fuba criticizes sqrt for these grounds for vote swapping, but then begins to read slOosh as town on reasons that feel quite similar. - I really don’t like that fuba townread slOosh. Fuba was convinced partly because slOosh, when talking about me, (“took it a step farther and said not to trust him if he tries to push anything other than MZ D3”). To me, slOosh was just making a post that lets him cast doubt on me in any situation – why would it be scummy if I push anyone but M_Z? First, if I felt slOosh and M_Z were scummy for the same reasons, but slOosh moreso, wouldn’t I then say “okay, slOosh is town, M_Z is less scummy than slOosh, therefore M_Z is probably town?” Second, I had already given doubts on Haru (twice) – why would it be scummy if I pushed Haru? I just didn’t find these comments from slOosh to be reasonable or convincing so I was pretty baffled when fuba said he townread slOosh for them. Fuba is not lower on my list because I have to recognize that slOosh’s post convinced some town to move, so I can’t paint with a broad brush and say moving or changing reads off that is inherently scummy. I like that he was pushing some on gobble. His case on sqrt was ill-timed, but it did feel like he was trying to figure out the game. If he was scum, I think he would be more likely to try to use his time to push M_Z as the viable alternative to slOosh, rather than making a case on sqrt just then. Palmar I don’t like that Palmar felt his case on M_Z was a “slam dunk” with 95% confidence, yet didn’t push his case as much as I would expect or try to get votes to go with him for a large portion of the day. I don’t like that when Palmar did begin push people to vote with him, it was based more on the support of a slOosh lynch, not on any merits of his case on M_Z, which he clearly felt were very good. I don’t like that Palmar wanted people to swap wagons because one was “too easy” – this feels wrong when his D1 comment was that that you should vote for you think is scummier. Not as bad in context, though. Despite that, I still think it is possible townplay, largely because I think M_Z is a fair wagon. I dunno. If M_Z flips town, I think we all end up wishing we got more comments out of Palmar. ... Tough for me to pick whose play I like least among sqrt, haru, and M_Z. I am a little better on sqrt but not for great reasons. sqrt I think a lot of what applies to Haru/M_Z (below) also applies to sqrt. It’s just, for sqrt I have seen him be a very jumpy/undetermined town player before, so his acts feel a little more excusable than Haru/M_Z. - I think it’s weird he was reading me as scum from my push (I said repeatedly I had a better case, why would I swap off of it or not want people to go on it) but so did Haru so eh. M_Z is a less scummy version of slOosh to me in content, except he is less active. I think he’s a good lynch tomorrow. A lot has been said about him, I don’t need to add much at the moment. Haru continues to feel suspicious. I put some thoughts on him earlier, and again in the thread tonight. - Haru’s posts at the end of N2 seem like he’s trying to suddenly overrepresent himself as a confused town. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=42#822: Regardless of whether slOosh flipped town or scum, does anyone think Haru becomes the likely night kill? (If you die tonight Haru, sorry, I just feel that’s not very likely) - As I wrote earlier tonight, his post-flip reactions to slOosh’s last post feel off to me. - I think it’s weird he was reading me as scum from my push (I said repeatedly I had a better case, why would I swap off of it or not want people to go on it) but so did sqrt so eh. Right now I think I'd lynch M_Z before Haru. It's worth getting resolution, and anyway if we push Haru then Palmar spends another day just saying he'd rather lynch M_Z. | ||
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Amiko
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Please explain your Alakaslam comment. | ||
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Amiko
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I won't discuss the merits of your point on Slam at this moment. If you are wrong on Slam, who is your second pick as scum? @Haru: We have 2 of 3 roles (watcher, medic, cop). This means we have to have either a watcher or a medic, potentially both. Since most people townread me, I figure the player(s) probably watched/protected me. - If we have a medic, scum probably only shoot me after they kill/ID the medic (or if they think I am the medic since I can't save myself). - If we have a watcher, scum probably only shoots/roleblocks me after they kill/ID the watcher (or if they think I am the watcher since I can't save myself). - If we have both, it's both of the above, except moreso. Anyway, since no blues have died there's a fair chance I'll be alive tomorrow too :3 we'll see. It's all WIFOM vs WIFOM for that kinda stuff. So far, I think there's two things that make me think one of these roles is very likely in the game. I'll share it but I'd like to see everyone join thread and state if they were roleblocked, first. | ||
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- If we have a cop, cop knows 0-2 confirmed town. If cop got a red check last night or gets one soon enough, it's gg. - If we have a watcher & medic, the watcher may know who the medic is now (if both targeted me). - If no one visited me besides the watcher, odds are fair that we have watcher/cop. It's a newbie game, so it's possible that the players wouldn't think about these things. Anyway, none of the above is certain, it can all be wrong if people (mafia or town) are trying to be tricky. :3 | ||
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unless it's cop with a red check of course | ||
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On June 02 2014 10:31 HaruRH wrote: Now that I think of it, only the roleblocker is left as scum. If slam is mafia, he can easily claim roleblock on n1 without roleblocking anyone. Do you think scum would trade the benefit of this for the use of their roleblock? If they did this, do you think it is a good move or bad move? | ||
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On June 02 2014 10:21 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Slam claimed rb which confirms him as town unless he's lying. Leaving a confirmed townie alive is a cardinal sin. + Show Spoiler + http://i.imgur.com/Kwn5cZZ.jpg It's not a terrible point, but I don't think it is compelling. There's a couple reasons, but to me the easiest to explain is that something which "confirms him as town unless he's lying" really isn't any confirmation at all. I mean, by this standard, if you tell me that you are town, that confirms you as town (unless you are lying). Anyway, Slam isn't my top town but I feel like you could do better if you tried. I feel the best defense for M_Z (which he didn't offer) is this: If M_Z and slOosh are both scum, it means that M_Z is roleblocker. When M_Z and slOosh were the lynch candidates, you would think scum would prefer to lynch slOosh (goon) over M_Z (roleblocker). Instead, slOosh made a post which was (apparently) compelling and started to move people toward M_Z over slOosh. I don't find that to be sufficient. ##Vote: Meapak_Ziphh We still have a day I think, so for the living please don't be lazy and talk about each other. Sheeping me isn't particularly helpful since M_Z is the major wagon anyway; if you think M_Z isn't the lynch or someone else is better, we should talk about it sooner rather than later. | ||
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Amiko
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I'll look at em tomorrow at your pick | ||
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- I think M_Z is a fair lynch, there's a justifiable complaints on his play- I feel like he is just the "less scummy" slOosh. But, I'm willing to entertain other lynches. - Earlier you said you were suspicious of fuba - could you let me know what you were thinking on that point (if it still applies)? @Palmar: I don't really expect you to push a lynch other than M_Z, and that's fine. But, I don't like that you haven't really offered anything or weighed in on anything unrelated to M_Z for a while. Do you have any thoughts on Haru / Alakaslam / fuba / you would share? | ||
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On June 03 2014 02:22 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Here's something that might (but probably isn't) prove to be important. Gobble was modkilled, not replaced. IMO nothing can or should be read from that. Blazinghand is firm with his rules. @sqrt and @Palmar: On June 02 2014 16:15 Amiko wrote: (cut) I feel the best defense for M_Z (which he didn't offer) is this: If M_Z and slOosh are both scum, it means that M_Z is roleblocker. When M_Z and slOosh were the lynch candidates, you would think scum would prefer to lynch slOosh (goon) over M_Z (roleblocker). Instead, slOosh made a post which was (apparently) compelling and started to move people toward M_Z over slOosh. (cut) Do you have any thoughts on this point? | ||
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We know slOosh is goon. If M_Z is scum, he is roleblocker. I think it was became clear that one of those two players was going to get lynched d2. If you were scum in that situation, if all other things were equal, you would probably want the roleblocker (M_Z in that case) to survive. However, slOosh fights to survive the lynch, M_Z does not. This suggests that maybe if they were both scum, slOosh would have preferred M_Z die instead of himself. I just want to know if you think that argument makes sense, and if you disagree, what part you disagree with. For me, I don't find it sufficient (though I guess I didn't go through the reasons) but I thought it was worth talking about, especially since it feels like people aren't really playing anymore. | ||
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I remember you were scumreading Palmar somewhat when he voted on bunnies early and questioned his reasons. Why did you react differently when bunnies voted you early (you didn't ask if bunnies was serious, etc.)? | ||
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- Maybe he's attacking the people because he wants them to appear towny. - Maybe he's attacking the people because he thinks it will make him seem more towny. - Maybe he put one mafia in his list, maybe two. There's no reliable way to figure out his intentions, so I don't really feel that it's useful to pry that deeply into them. If you really want to focus on players' last words, why aren't you looking at town players instead? > What do you think of Chrom's pre-death reads? > What about bunnies' pre-death reads? Compared to slOosh, at least you know these players were probably giving their honest reads. | ||
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On June 03 2014 05:40 sqrtofneg1 wrote: b/c that was obviously joking? First post? I really exactly disagree, but I thought Palmar's XD case was joking, too. | ||
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On June 01 2014 22:41 mderg wrote: OK this sounds logical. Even though it´s purely association based. Clarify? | ||
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I mostly disagree with you. I mean, there's no certainty that scum will kill someone because they are right. (Though, I do think that tends to be the case on day 1, at least) But even if you don't know if the town is right, you can still look at their filters and see if they made points that might have made the mafia decide to kill them. Ex: consider Chromatically's last couple of posts. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?user=Chromatically&page=3 His top three scum were: (1) slOosh (2) M_Z (3) gobble If you were scum and saw that, don't you think he might make for a tempting n1 kill? I don't find reviewing bunnies' filter to be useful, though. Since she didn't read d2, and her last post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=44#867) is pretty inconclusive imo. About all I can say is that she didn't think fuba was scum. But I don't even know if this is helpful; my suspicion of fuba is mostly from d2 (which I guess she didn't read) so I feel like her post doesn't give us as much to work with. Scum filters can help too, you are right. But, I feel like the most useful stuff is things you recognize as slips in retrospect... I think a post from scum when that player is gaining votes and is a likely lynch is just too wifomy. | ||
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Do you think mderg is buddying me? Or do his posts feel natural to you? | ||
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I'm not even sure about that second part in Iceland. (but it's the first part I'm more interested in anyway) | ||
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Are there other games you've played where you are lazy in a way similar to this? | ||
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If we hit wrong on M_Z, then Palmar is someone who should get attention, and given that he is barely playing it seems to me that it'd be better to try to get him to play now instead of later. I don't really see why we need to wait for tomorrow to ask questions. I recognize if Palmar/Alakaslam don't really want to play mafia, I can't make them play the game. If M_Z flips scum, fine. If not, I'll certainly have this interaction to consider too. | ||
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I don't like it when more than one player is useless because then I can't really find scum based on who is useless. Hopefully M_Z is scum so I don't have to play this game any more. Sqrt, if you feel like playing this game you can talk about this post- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=49#973 I guess something else to talk about is, you clear fuba based on his posts to gobble. What do you think about Palmar's interactions with gobble? | ||
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Amiko
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Last night, your preferred lynches seemed to be (1) Lynch everyone on slOosh's death list (which I still think is vague) (2) Lynch M_Z into Palmar I can at least agree that M_Z is on slOosh's death list. Palmar is only sort of on the list (he's mentioned tangentially when discussing bunnies). Fuba and me are both mentioned in more detail on the list. So, can you tell me why you want to lynch Palmar over Fuba? | ||
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On June 04 2014 06:03 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I was thinking about letting myself be modkilled so that the town would essentially get a double lynch but then I realized I wanted to play in the next game so I don't want to be banned. There's not much I have to say, I promised a case but it's evident that even when I flip town people have already said they're not gonna care. I don't really have the effort to defend myself. Palmar is my best bet for scum since that would balance things out with me being town. Sorry for playing so poorly, I got lynched in the other game and let it get to me. Naturally, you guys are going to see this as a scumclaim now, but after I flip please refer to this post as a polite goodbye and apology for poor play. I'll be here for a little while so if anyone wants to banter about reads I'm all for it. What does this mean? | ||
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"Palmar is my best bet for scum since that would balance things out with me being town" mean? | ||
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On June 04 2014 08:31 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I'm about to flip town and I seriously doubt BH didn't mess with the teams a bit. | ||
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I appreciate sqrt's comment since at least it helps distinguish him from Haru a bit. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + - This game is pretty reminiscent of my first forum game. d3 mislynch on someone because they are barely playing. - I am pretty sure we would have lost if gobble had voted M_Z on d2 in a timely matter since slOosh was getting townread by people at the end of d2. Assuming a kill goes through tonight, we'll be 1 scum vs. 5 town tomorrow. I guess we should probably have blues roleclaim tomorrow since it should give us two confirmed town. Maybe this shouldn't happen if a blue dies tonight, I dunno, I'll think about this more later. If we mislynch tomorrow, you probably will want to no-lynch to get 1v2 instead of 1v3. Although day 3 was awful from my point of view, I did actually get a few reads I'll probably post as night ends. | ||
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Amiko
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So you had two posts a minute apart- + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2014 11:31 HaruRH wrote: I agree with MZ lynch into palmar lynch. On June 01 2014 11:32 HaruRH wrote: In fact, I think we should lynch everyone on sloosh's 'death list'. Your position seemed to be: Post 1: We should lynch M_Z into Palmar Post 2: We should follow the list Since you've now commented on the list in more detail (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=52#1030), you seem to agree with me that Palmar wasn't on the list. So can you explain how these posts are consistent? Did you change your mind within that minute? Or what? | ||
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Amiko
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At the time he made the list, he was the leading wagon by a significant margin with about two hours until the lynch. I don't think he could have foreseen that so many people would move to another wagon - even if his scum partner was on slOosh and moved and gobble voted, they still had to pull in more town than I think he could reasonably expect. So, rather than- This is the current list. However, sloosh probably intended the list to be like this: 1) MZ (lynched d3) - town 2) gobble (alive) 3) bunnies (killed n2) - town 4) fuba 5) amiko I'll also add that there's no guarantee he was planning to kill bunnies at that time - as M_Z was getting lynched, quite a few people thought slOosh was town as well. I'm not sure that would have changed just because M_Z had flipped. So, I think the people who voted slOosh wouldn't have been so townread, and bunnies may have stayed alive (especially given how she was barely playing). | ||
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On June 04 2014 12:34 HaruRH wrote: Palmar is on my list, but fuba isn't. However, the strongest evidence to me is sloosh's list, which is even more strongly supported by these mislynches. Your list? Is your list people you think are town or people you think are scum? | ||
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You think Palmar is more likely scum, but you need to check fuba because he was on slOosh's list? | ||
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On June 04 2014 14:07 HaruRH wrote: Your assumption is that he sent this sympathy post to avoid being lynched - but I assumed he posted like this to protect his scum friends. He was sure he was getting lynched before he posted this for sure.(lynch mz first-> town, thus we won't really bothet with gobble/fuba anymore) Well, I think I said exactly the opposite of that assumption. + Show Spoiler + On June 04 2014 12:34 Amiko wrote: Also, doesn't your post on slOosh's list basically fall apart if you consider that slOosh probably made that post expecting to be lynched himself? At the time he made the list, he was the leading wagon by a significant margin with about two hours until the lynch. I don't think he could have foreseen that so many people would move to another wagon - even if his scum partner was on slOosh and moved and gobble voted, they still had to pull in more town than I think he could reasonably expect. But I don't really think it's worth talking about this anyway. slOosh's contained scum if he wanted it to contain scum, and it contained town if he wanted it to contain town. It might contain some scum, it might contain all scum. I have no reason to think one of these is any likelier than the other - it is all just speculative guessing. If the argument is wrong, it's speculative in ways that aren't helpful. If the argument is right, it's speculative in ways that happen to be helpful. Let's talk about this point because I think it's more important- On June 04 2014 14:07 HaruRH wrote: It is right to assume that whoever pushed/sheeped the sloosh lynch and sheeped the MZ lynch is scum. Both palmar and fuba were doing this. First off, did you write the first sentence correctly? (scum = people who pushed/sheeped on slOosh & sheeped on M_Z) Second, why don't you include sqrt? Third, you realize that you also pushed/sheeped the M_Z lynch. If you are town, why is it scummy when Palmar/fuba did this but not scummy when you did it (as town)? Or is it scummy that you did it? | ||
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On June 04 2014 14:49 HaruRH wrote: I had my suspicions on MZ on d2 already. It was simply a matter of fact before I voted MZ. Palmar and fuba sheeped MZ push on the context of 'lazy' I guess I should word it as 'scum sheeped/pushed a sloosh lynch &sheeped a MZ lynch'. I keep getting confused by what you are saying, I can't tell if you are mixing up words. Could you respond to these by number? It just might reduce the chance I'll misunderstand you (1) Look at the green text. Did the people you name as scummy sheep/push a sloosh lynch? For Palmar, it seems to me he voted MZ and pushed that. How did he sheep/push a sloosh lynch? For fuba, I guess he initially sheeped sloosh, but he moved to MZ. For Slam, I guess he did sheep the slOosh lynch. It seems to me that you mostly townread people who sheep/push a slOosh lynch (see #2) (2) Why do you think scum sheeped/pushed a sloosh lynch (as you said in the green text)? This seems inconsistent because you have mostly townread people who have done that. Bunnies sheeped a sloosh lynch (confirmed town) M_Z sheeped a sloosh lynch (confirmed town) I pushed a sloosh lynch (practically confirmed town) mderg sheeped a sloosh lynch (I think you townread him?) If you look at Palmar/fuba, it seems to be that the people you think are town "sheeped/pushed a sloosh lynch" So I don't understand how you are using that as a heuristic. (3) Why do you townread mderg but scumread alakaslam? It seems like you are reading people primarily through voting patterns and through slOosh's death list. But aren't these players nearly identical in these two respects? (4) You didn't talk about sqrt (again) Why isn't sqrt scummy to you when he moved from slOosh to MZ? Why is fuba scummy for moving from slOosh to MZ but you / sqrt are not? | ||
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On June 04 2014 08:55 Palmar wrote: I'm not mafia. If I'm not mafia, who is mafia MZ. I will move this lynch off you if I can if your answer is good enough. Btw any thoughts on this post from Palmar? It seemed a little different to me. | ||
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So, I’m not certain, but I think we probably have a watcher. (1) Slam claimed roleblock d1 This point falls through if Slam was lying, but go with me for a minute- If there is a watcher in the game, mafia wants to ensure they neither roleblock nor kill someone who is likely to be watched. Ask yourself: On day 1, Who do you feel presented as most towny / analytical / useful? These players would typically be good targets for scum to kill. As such, if there is a watcher, the watcher likely picked one of these players to observe. I think Slam has made a few points over the course of the game, but I don’t think I would put him as a likely kill N1, so if I were watcher I think it’s pretty unlikely I would target him. This means that Slam becomes a relatively safe person to roleblock – it’s pretty unlikely a watcher will target him, so you can probably roleblock him without getting caught. (2) Slam is an extra good roleblock target This point is actually pretty remote. I think it's true, but I have never seen scum pick their roleblock with this level of thought, so I feel like this point is probably irrelevant. + Show Spoiler + I think Slam makes an extra-good roleblock target if we have are in a cop/watcher setup. Slam is a viable N1 copcheck, so imagine if Watcher and cop both targeted Slam- the watcher would see two people visit (both the roleblocking mafia and the cop). This sort of ties the watcher’s hands—if the watcher want to reveal the information, it essentially trades both blue roles for one scum. That said, I honestly feel like this second point is a layer of thought I haven’t seen players consider when making their night kills or roleblock choices, so I feel this isn’t a strong point. (3) I wasn't roleblocked N2 I also think a watcher might be somewhat more likely because I was not roleblocked N2. I don't really know, I though mafia might think I was a cop/watcher who caught slOosh. Since I was not roleblocked, this suggests to me that maybe mafia feared that a watcher was targeting me. This point doesn’t rely on an assumption regarding Slam’s truthfulness, but it is still not great - scum probably thought it was more likely that the cop/watcher didn’t get info n1 (just based on probability and the play on d2). Anyway, the point also falls through if slOosh didn't deliver KP that night (a watcher couldn't have caught him if gobble did the kill). This is all speculative, but I like thinking through it... it makes me think it's a bit more likely that we have a watcher, but I could very well be wrong :D | ||
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On June 04 2014 16:12 HaruRH wrote: (2) Not ALL who sheeped/pushed for a slosh lynch is scum, but they are definitely inside. The townread are used to exclude those who might be scum VS those who might not be, which in this case is you (which I initially did not townread) and mderg (which is a strong townread). Bunnies and MZ wasn't townread at all, they died town. I feel like you keep writing slOosh when you should be writing M_Z. This is the vote count: On June 01 2014 10:07 Blazinghand wrote: Meapak_Ziphh (5) - slOosh(5) - Amiko, Alakaslam, Sqrtofneg1(0) - I color coded the confirmed people. There is one scum left. I don't think there is any grounds to say that there has to be a scum inside the people who sheeped/pushed slOosh. So, how are you saying: Not ALL who sheeped/pushed for a slosh lynch is scum, but they are definitely inside. Especially when, from your post, your primary suspects are fuba and palmar, who were both on M_Z? [b]In short, either (a) There is a scum who sheeped/pushed slOosh (b) Fuba or Palmar is scum You are saying you think both of these things. But, it cannot be both, unless you think Fuba & Palmar pushed/sheeped slOosh (i.e. that Fuba & Palmar fit into (a)) I don't think they did sheep/push slOosh at all. Just in case we are confused, I think of "pushing" a lynch as supporting a lynch. I.e. "Amiko pushed the slOosh lynch d2." | ||
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On June 04 2014 16:20 HaruRH wrote: Amiko: Who is your top 2 scum reads now? Why? Who is your top 2 town reads? Why? Who will you push on d4? I'll answer this as night is ending - I think I'll be alive tomorrow, it depends on how desperate scum is, what roles we have, and whether I get killed through WIFOM :3 But I think it is safest to answer it a moment before deadline. | ||
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On June 04 2014 21:32 Palmar wrote: They don't need to prove it, that's the point. If someone claims blue, he's confirmed town, unless he gets counterclaimed. If someone counterclaims, one of the two is mafia and we lynch one and then the other in lylo. You don't need any buffers etc. I disagree with part of this post but it is not helpful for me to explain why. I think we claim tomorrow or at deadline (probably no meaningful difference) for sure since we can't no lynch. | ||
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Amiko
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On June 01 2014 09:40 Alakaslam wrote: Although I am here, I am in Nd out (slOosh lynched) On June 01 2014 10:12 Alakaslam wrote: Were you around at the time votes were swapping? I mean, you can lie and we can't confirm it, but I figure it's worth asking :3 Also FWIW I don't think you've spammed. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
<3 2ez | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Basically, were you around and not persuaded to go to slOosh? Or were you not really reading thread? You can lie easily so I can't put much weight in it, but I am still curious about your answer | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I am wondering if you read people moving to M_Z or not - i.e. did you consider going to M_Z and decide not to? or did you not consider moving? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think the best evidence we have this game is the D2 votes. It’s certainly possible that mderg or Alakaslam are scum, but I think the odds are probably in favor voting into the people who wanted to lynch M_Z. Given that multiple people were switching from M_Z to slOosh, I think either player could have saved one of their own with relatively little exposure. So, in my opinion the pool of people to lynch out of is initially Palmar / fuba / sqrt / Haru. We can limit this a little further because I am cop. N1: slOosh N2: Haru is town and shouldn’t get lynched N3: ?????? (a secret for now) Short explanation: + Show Spoiler + N1: Sloosh was suspicious. My general attitude was that M_Z and slOosh were suspicious, with more pressure likely to go onto M_Z, so I could check slOosh and just let M_Z get lynched if slOosh was town. D2: I didn't want to claim cop because I figured doing so would probably cut off my chance to get any more checks (either die or get roleblocked). I pushed hard on slOosh and made a case that was so good I wanted to trade in my badge for a gun and vigi-shoot everyone who voted slOosh. N2: I checked Haru with thoughts similar to N1. Haru seemed very scummy to me, but not so much to other people. If he was scum, it's gg. If he isn't, I can keep questioning him him to make him look like a potential mislynch so he wouldn't get killed. I wasn't going to check M_Z since if he was town I was fine with him dying as he had been pretty useless and didn't seem likely to be a blue role. I won’t talk too much about Haru's play, but basically I keep questioning / doubting Haru even after the check because if he looks like someone I’m willing to mislynch, it means he probably won’t get night killed and it keeps a town in the game that I can confirm. - Most likely, only one other person will blue claim. In that situation, you can confirm me and that other player. - It’s also possible (though unlikely) we’ll have three blue claims – remember, scum knows which setup we are in, so scum can claim the role that is not in the game. This is a possibility only because it puts us in a lynch pool of the three blue claims rather than a direct counterclaim. In that case, as long as you are willing to trust that I am town/cop, we lynch the other two claims and win. - This is pretty much impossible, but if two people claim the same role, gg we win. Lynch one today and one tomorrow. If we go with the most likely situation (one other blue claim), it’ll come down to reads. I believe we should lynch in this order: (1) sqrt (2) Palmar (3) fuba (4) Alakaslam (5) mderg Why sqrt first? Well, two players moved from slOosh to M_Z. Haru, who is confirmed town by my check. The other player is sqrt. He was the last to swap, but at least one more person would be necessary for M_Z to die. So, it’s not as risky as it might seem for him to swap – if he’s wrong, M_Z still doesn’t die… one more person would have to swap, and that player can be a viable mislynch because they swapped onto killing town (they look even worse if slOosh is lynched). Why Palmar over fuba? Palmar’s gotten some criticism for his day 3 play. I’d suggest to you that his day 2 play is similarly awful. + Show Spoiler + I think we agree that Palmar’s d3 was more or less useless. He barely commented except some halfhearted remarks to M_Z to try to get information out of someone he claims he was basically certain was scum, yet ignores the conversation and comments through the rest of the day. But, his day 2 was awful too. Basically, he made a weak case on M_Z day 1. On day 2 he votes it and does nothing more. He doesn’t really followup with M_Z for reads. He doesn’t really encourage people to vote with him (until the very end of the day). He doesn’t really comment on the slOosh lynch in a substantial way. Basically, Palmar’s d2 is almost as bad as his d3. I think the only thing that is redeeming to Palmar is that slOosh and Palmar were the first two votes on M_Z. I just don’t think that’s enough to make me find Palmar useful, though. I certainly have suspicions on fuba too, but I have to go with my stronger reads. This game would be a lot better if people had played d3, so I am making do with what I have. If one of these players is killed or a confirmed town (as the only other blue claim), omit them from the list and continue. We probably lose if Alakaslam/mderg is mafia, but recognize that we probably would have lost anyway on d2 if either had moved their vote to M_Z. I think there are fair points for them, anyway- Mderg’s vote swap onto slOosh was written in such a way that makes it look really suspicious if he moves back to M_Z, which I think is a good reason to bank on the likelihood that he is town. Slam could be mafia, but he was semi active around the vote swap to M_Z so I am willing to put him lower on the list. In addition, he was the only one to discuss the defense I mentioned for M_Z which to me is a fair reason to give him townpoints. In sum, I feel lynching sqrt->Palmar gives us the best chance to win. If sqrt/Palmar claims blue and becomes confirmed town, Palmar is the remaining lynch. I can’t guarantee you anything, but I think this is the best route to take. Subject to modification from a check tonight :3 | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
If it wasn't for the nights (If it wasn't for the nights I think that I could take it) if it wasn't for the nights (If it wasn't for the nights I think that I could make it) Even I could see a light if it wasn't for the nights (Even I could see a light I think that I could make it) Guess my future would look bright if it wasn't for the nights (If it wasn't for the nights I think that I could take it) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
 I was roleblocked. Claim up dudes. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
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I like Palmar into fuba assuming no counterclaims | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I felt the only suspicious thing he did was that he agrees with me a lot. But, his play is pretty good overall - I think he's a fairly reliable town pick, and it's tough for me to believe that scum would not use their roleblock on n2 knowing there is a cop in the game. Maaaan, I am disappointed there's no watcher, though. I really thought there was. x.x | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I felt sure scum would kill someone who voted for slOosh, and since I had been raising points on Haru I figured he would be a good target to mislynch (so wouldn't be killed) Maaaaan I died N2 things would be crazy :s | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Anyway sqrt, you and I should take a look at mderg too, I think we're in pretty good shape though. (Haru you too) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
##Vote: Palmar | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
1) Palmar's vote on ninjabunnies means nothing Mafia make cases they don't intend to push, and mafia talk to each other. Even if that were not true, I don't think Palmar gets any credit for this given that he didn't actually push or do anything with that case, anyway. Take a look at ninjabunnies' reaction - she's the one being "attacked" and she doesn't care because the case is so obviously meaningless http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=9#175 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=9#177 (2) Palmar hasn't actually bussed his team Palmar may have argued with gobble and said he would support a slOosh lynch. However, those words are not consistent with his action. On day 2, Palmar resisted a slOosh lynch in favor of M_Z. Further, look at his discussion that day. Even if Palmar thought M_Z was a better lynch, he doesn't weigh in on slOosh except to say that he would vote for him. He doesn't actually vote for him, doesn't really explain why M_Z is a better lynch. Although he says his lynch on M_Z is a slam dunk (despite it being weak) he doesn't even attempt to push his case. When he tries to convince people to move to M_Z, he doesn't discuss the merits (the "slam dunk") part at all, and only goes with the WIFOM "too easy" argument. Further, after telling people to vote for their top scumread on day 1, he tells people not to vote for the "too easy" lynch on day 2. To me, this all looks like someone who is eager to get votes off a scum partner. If Palmar was town and thought slOosh would be mafia, his day 2 should have spent trying to get reads to distinguish between the players and figure out which was more scummy. He should have at least weighed in on the slOosh case and provided some explanation. If Palmar actually thought the M_Z case was better, why was he so inactive day 2? Why didn't he try to get anyone to join the losing wagon he was so sure about? Why didn't he talk about the merits of slOosh at all? He doesn't even say anything like "If M_Z does flip town, slOosh dies next." He doesn't talk with anyone who begins to townread slOosh to try to convince him otherwise. Palmar may have said he doubted slOosh, but his play reflects a strong desire not to lynch slOosh. (3) Palmar defending fuba doesn't mean anything to me First off, Palmar's point here misreads the situation. On June 05 2014 18:50 Palmar wrote: I think fuba is town, I don't care if his play is weird. This sloosh lynch is going too easily. We should do MZ. If I'm mafia, why am I defending fuba, who is (at the time and still is) the most likely person for town to get behind lynching. It doesn't make any sense. [/Quote] At the time we were talking, the wagons were M_Z and slOosh. Fuba was not the most likely person for town to get behind lynching. Second, this isn't really defending fuba at all. It's just admitting someone's play is weird and still calling them town. If anything, it leaves the door open for Palmar to try to mislynch fuba later (because fuba's play is weird). (4) lol On June 05 2014 18:50 Palmar wrote: Regarding lazy on MZ lynch day I don't see how this has anything to do with my alignment. Hell, if I am mafia I would like to think I'd actually have continued playing on that day, mostly because I'd have known this was a mislynch and I needed some continuation strategy. What I did instead was to fuck off and leave no strategy for myself as mafia. So please, heads out of asses, I'm not the mafia we're looking for. I actually expected scum-Palmar to make this point. Even if it wasn't a terrible point (and it is) it doesn't actually matter because mderg and fuba were lazy too. It also doesn't explain your inactive play on d2, where you should have been quite active since two people you suspected were on the chopping block. More in a bit :3 | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(1) They are almost certainly going to shoot someone who voted for slOosh over M_Z as these people are most towny (2) Slam is unlikely to get a medic save, whereas mderg and Amiko have a fair chance at being medic saved or WIFOM saved. And on the off chance Amiko is medic, he probably saves mderg. (3) Slam is a good kill because most people would expect him to get cop checked since he is tough to read and most people aren't calling him town outright. Palmar actually has more incentive to shoot Slam precisely because he called most people (besides Slam) town. By shooting someone he considers a suspect, Palmar must now "reevaluate" his reads because his suspect is dead. This gives Palmar some justification for changing his reads to whatever suits the situation - he doesn't know who he has to call scum yet, it depends on the blue claims. Now, he's in a position where he can seem to read anyone he has to as scum. (Btw sqrt, this is sort of like how scum-Eden killed town-Yellow in last game, even though he had been pushing to lynch Yellow the entire game. There were other reasons too, but I think that's one) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Mderg didn't just say he was willing to vote for slOosh, he actually did vote for slOosh (unlike Palmar). Mderg also wrote a post basically saying slOosh is the better lynch. This is important because it makes it look much worse for mderg if he switches back to slOosh. I'll also mention that I think it's more likely I would be roleblocked or killed D1 since I was playing pretty towny, yet I wasn't. I think townreading Palmar may have helped with that | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
You should have been talking about both M_Z and slOosh since you claim you thought both were scum. You should have been questioning these players to decide which was the better lynch. Explain how you think your case on M_Z was a slam dunk. Explain why you didn't push your "slam dunk" case. Explain why you were not upset the "slam dunk" case was not getting traction. Explain why when you started asking people to move to M_Z, you didn't talk about the great case you had. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 05 2014 23:20 Palmar wrote: Amiko you're wrong. But you can kill me if you promise to agree to a written consent that you're just lynching me because my lynch list after the policy lynch on jabber went: 1. town 2. mafia 3. mafia instead of you who with the benefit of a cop check actually had mafia at no 1. Even if M_Z was lynched, you have a fair path to mislynch town the next day. You can come into the next day saying that although you doubted the other players, the late swaps onto M_Z are really suspicious and you'd rather lynch sqrt/haru. You can also try to work with my comments on Haru since I've shown suspicion of him. Basically, it doesn't matter to me who you want to lynch "tomorrow" because people can change their mind tomorrow. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(1) you are the scummiest of the three (2) mderg is the least scummy of the three, so it doesn't matter to me a whole lot whether you or fuba dies first. I'd rather kill you first though, since I think if we finish the game tonight probably I don't end the game dead :3 There is also the small possibility that if we leave you alive until tomorrow you will bamboozle Haru into voting for mderg for no good reason. On May 29 2014 09:07 Palmar wrote: I've seen some shit man, you wouldn't even believe. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Whether fuba or Palmar is more likely to be scum is only relevant if you are willing to vote off mderg as scum. I'm not and I don't see any adequate grounds to change my mind so that's what I need to see from Palmar/fuba before even considering moving my vote. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 05 2014 19:33 Palmar wrote: Sloosh got lynched anyway. Why on earth did I not try to at least milk some credit for it by switching back or someting, If you think I'm mafia I already brought up that sloosh was scummy and I might throw my weight behind the case. It makes no sense for me to let him be lynched and leave myself in a worse position before. Palmar could have switched until his play at the end of the day. With (I think) less than two hours left, Palmar finally gave some comments that distinguished between the two lynches: he said that the case on M_Z was better (it wasn't) and that the slOosh lynch was "too easy" (it wasn't). After he committed to those comments, he could not switch back to slOosh without looking very scummy or going into my "trap" comment. Given how close the votes were, I don't think he would want to, anyway. On June 05 2014 19:33 Palmar wrote: It's just pointless. It's almost sort of insulting that you guys think I'm mafia because in order to believe that I'm mafia you also have to believe I'm incapable of forming a winning strategy, there is literally no path to victory for me even if gobble hadn't gotten killed. I don't understand this point. Let's say you are scum and gobble didn't get killed. In this case, gobble votes M_Z over his scumpartner. At that point, it'd look like this - we'll assume for the moment ninjabunnies still gets shot: 5) slOosh 6) gobbledydook 7) Palmar 8) mderg 9) fuba 10) HaruRH 11) sqrtofneg1 12) Amiko 13) Alakaslam In what way does that foreclose a winning strategy? You'd be in great shape. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 05 2014 23:47 Palmar wrote: I haven't played with NB before and I'm not a prophet. There is no way I can predict how she would react to me making a weak case on her. The case is still correct, it just doesn't mean she's mafia. That shit happens all the time in mafia. You misunderstand why I posted bunnies reaction. The post is that your case was not seen as serious, and when you pressed it people responded (as they should) doubting its sincerity. Bunnies' reaction just goes to show how little pressure your case provided. Anyway, you have nothing to lose by making that kind of case as mafia, maybe if you're lucky she OMGUSes you and you use that to try to support the lynch. On June 05 2014 23:47 Palmar wrote: Your case on Sloosh wasn't wrong. There is no point for me to argue about the merits of the case. In a world where MZ doesn't exist I would have just sheeped your case. I actually intended to do that until I got cold feet regarding how easy the wagon was. Part of my case was that slOosh was M_Z, except more scummy. If you thought my case was right, you shouldn't have been on M_Z. If you didn't think that was correct, you didn't agree with me and should have tried to convince me on the merits. On June 05 2014 23:47 Palmar wrote: I don't waste time when I'm playing mafia. I see no reason to post when town is doing what I want it to be doing. I was okay with Sloosh getting the lynch until later in the day. If I was mafia and planned to defend him I probably would've done it earlier and not just based on wagon speed. But hey, ignore that. ... I'm not this incompetent as mafia dude. When you drop the case I make a decision on what I want to do, and I either bus him for credit or defend him by breaking your case. Your case was good, you KNOW your case was good. If I'm mafia and don't want sloosh to die I would have to dismantle it immediately. Your explanation does not fit. I scumhunt even when I think I have caught scum. Anyway, you start pushing for M_Z only after fuba has made a case for people to switch to M_Z. I think you could accurately predict sqrt and Haru could be moved (because I thought they could be moved too). On June 05 2014 23:47 Palmar wrote: The backtracking strategy you're claiming is actually awful, because if I'm mafia I need two mislynches here, not one. It woul be ok if I needed just one. I can't do the "contemplate my reads" thing twice. Why not? You just say "I guess I was wrong, so it must be XYZ" Anyway, for all you know, the cop has no checks. It's possible that the cop checked players who had died. It's possible that you roleblocked the cop on days the cop would check living players. And, you don't know who the cop or medic are. If you are lucky, maybe Slam will flip as one of the blue roles. For all you know, your strategy is a winning strategy because it's possible there will only be one blue (who you could kill tonight). The idea that you didn't make a winning strategy is incorrect because it considers information you did not know. Given the information you did know, your strategy was fine. On June 05 2014 23:47 Palmar wrote: And you're risking the game on you being cocky. If you are town, you certainly risked the game with your play on day 2 and day 3. It doesn't matter. The game is at risk until it's over. That's the nature of the game. (Anyway play has been pretty great, I can't believe you guys didn't roleblock me n2) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 06 2014 00:03 Palmar wrote: Objection! That's subjective bullshit. Make your case on mderg already. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
You don't have to have your votes split d2 because there are still plenty of wagons you can unite behind. You can try to attack the people who swapped for a mislynch (Haru, sqrt, fuba) And, you can bus slOosh the next day if you need to. It doesn't matter if all three of you vote M_Z. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 06 2014 00:17 Palmar wrote: Who cares. I'm telling you. I would not do what I did as mafia. I think it's a terrible strategy. I think this falls under the subjective category you mentioned earlier. Not persuasive. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 06 2014 00:16 Palmar wrote: Maybe I don't want to. Only one of them is mafia. First I need to decide which one it is. Work on this. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 30 2014 04:55 Palmar wrote: If I die tonight. MZ is like 95% mafia. His response to me here has nothing to do with what I was saying in the post. Like it's beyond obvious he's not reading the argument at all and all he wants to do is discredit me. What I was doing: Explaining why I thought MZ was mafia What MZ claims I was doing: Trying to back out of the read. The two are mutually exclusive damnit. I was explaining my read to someone who wasn't following it in hopes of convincing them, which is literally the opposite of trying to back out of a read. This is a post from Palmar from night one. At this point, Palmar is convinced that M_Z is scum. Palmar quotes the post from day one. At that point, there was still time to push someone other than jabber. So, Palmar had already gone through the things that he felt made M_Z scum on day 1, but he doesn’t push this until after jabber has been mislynched. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I mean you even say that M_Z's case may be a slam dunk at that point. "So if we get a slam-dunk case today I'm all ears. We actually might have one with MZ's overreaction and misinterpretation of my post against him, but we need to let it play out" | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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On September 19 2012 21:43 Palmar wrote: This is why most people shouldn't use meta. The problem here is that you're simply looking at one action, and assuming it's valid to point that out. I never point to my own meta as town or scum because I know I'm perfectly capable of altering it. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 29 2014 17:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: My reason for wanting to lynch Palmar was stated here: At this point I'm not as convinced of Palmar's scumminess anymore because he's come in and been contributing a lot more than I would have expected out of scum Palmar. At the moment I don't have a burning scum read, I am probably most suspicious of sqrt because of the way he seems to drift with the general opinion of the thread like a willow in the wind. However I'm not sold that makes him scum yet, I wanna see him post for a little while longer before I make my mind up. On May 30 2014 03:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: That's called a progression of a read sloosh. As you can see, at first I was not suspicious of sqrt and was simply pointing things out about his play for him to fix, then he posted more and I changed my mind because of new information. This is typically how one processes facts in a changing environment. I literally outline what's going on in the second post you quoted. (1) What about these posts confirmed it to you? (2) If these actually confirmed your suspicions to such a great extent, why aren't you quoting those instead of the post from d1? Why are you not even referencing the posts that you claim made you sure M_Z was scum? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 06 2014 00:53 Amiko wrote: (1) What about these posts confirmed it to you? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
If the posts confirmed your suspicions, they should have content in them that leads you to read him as scum. If the posts had content that turned your suspicions into a slam dunk, then you should be using them in your case. + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://blogs.citypages.com/food/RIP-500-square.jpg) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 06 2014 00:07 Amiko wrote: You misunderstand why I posted bunnies reaction. The post is that your case was not seen as serious, and when you pressed it people responded (as they should) doubting its sincerity. Bunnies' reaction just goes to show how little pressure your case provided. Anyway, you have nothing to lose by making that kind of case as mafia, maybe if you're lucky she OMGUSes you and you use that to try to support the lynch. Part of my case was that slOosh was M_Z, except more scummy. If you thought my case was right, you shouldn't have been on M_Z. If you didn't think that was correct, you didn't agree with me and should have tried to convince me on the merits. I scumhunt even when I think I have caught scum. Anyway, you start pushing for M_Z only after fuba has made a case for people to switch to M_Z. I think you could accurately predict sqrt and Haru could be moved (because I thought they could be moved too). Why not? You just say "I guess I was wrong, so it must be XYZ" Anyway, for all you know, the cop has no checks. It's possible that the cop checked players who had died. It's possible that you roleblocked the cop on days the cop would check living players. And, you don't know who the cop or medic are. If you are lucky, maybe Slam will flip as one of the blue roles. For all you know, your strategy is a winning strategy because it's possible there will only be one blue (who you could kill tonight). The idea that you didn't make a winning strategy is incorrect because it considers information you did not know. Given the information you did know, your strategy was fine. If you are town, you certainly risked the game with your play on day 2 and day 3. It doesn't matter. The game is at risk until it's over. That's the nature of the game. (Anyway play has been pretty great, I can't believe you guys didn't roleblock me n2) | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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You suspected M_Z on day 1, but were not sure. You became sure during night 1. You became sure because of M_Z's inactivity. | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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Amiko
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On Day 1, you say that you suspect M_Z. At this time, the case is not a slam dunk. This is your excuse for not pushing M_Z on Day 1 as an alternative for jabber. On Night 1, you become certain that M_Z is scum. This suggests that something between your post Day 1 and your post Night 1 made you feel M_Z was confirmed scum. You can lie about your reasons now, so let's look at your actual post at the time: On May 30 2014 04:55 Palmar wrote: If I die tonight. MZ is like 95% mafia. His response to me here has nothing to do with what I was saying in the post. Like it's beyond obvious he's not reading the argument at all and all he wants to do is discredit me. What I was doing: Explaining why I thought MZ was mafia What MZ claims I was doing: Trying to back out of the read. The two are mutually exclusive damnit. I was explaining my read to someone who wasn't following it in hopes of convincing them, which is literally the opposite of trying to back out of a read. Your post here actually points to actions that happened earlier on Day 1 - things you already knew when you were not convinced. So, it looks suspicious to me because you are grounding your certainty in things you should have already known. Now, you are saying that M_Z became confirmed due to his inactivity. This explanation is suspect and scummy because you don't make any reference to this basis in your earlier post. (You also add in your most recent post that it was based on jabber and rereading M_Z, but neither of those points came up in your post, either). In other words, your case against M_Z did not raise the points that you claim convinced you he was mafia | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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On June 06 2014 01:52 Palmar wrote: It isn't new, I said "I gradually became convinced over n1" But hey, fit it to your insane story all you like. On June 06 2014 00:47 Palmar wrote: gradually over n1. He already made the posts that I wanted to lynch him for, but the inaction factor doesn't have an exact time on it, it's just a feeling that he isn't really trying. by the time I said he had a 95% chance of flipping mafia I was pretty damn sure | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 06 2014 00:47 Palmar wrote: gradually over n1. He already made the posts that I wanted to lynch him for, but the inaction factor doesn't have an exact time on it, it's just a feeling that he isn't really trying. by the time I said he had a 95% chance of flipping mafia I was pretty damn sure On June 06 2014 01:46 Palmar wrote: Sort of. Jabber's flip and re-reading MZ's posting also helped. I had become pretty certain when I posted that 95% post, but it was mostly based on earlier evidence. And not inactivity precisely, but rather lack of commitment to solving the game. I don't care how much people post if they post the right things. | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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If you want to go AFK go for it, but I don't think it'll help you. | ||
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Amiko
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On June 06 2014 02:26 Palmar wrote: From now on, assume every point I make could possibly be inspired by rethinking, rereading, observation, events, jesus or various other things I don't tell you about. It's 100% super clear what my thought process was. 1. jabber did super scummy things. 2. MZ did some scummy things 3. MZ did super scummy things. he still might contribute later 4. jabber is so scummy he might not be scum 5. we need to lynch him anyway, in case he's just bad mafia 6. can only lynch 1 person today. 8. jabber dies 10. Mz is still not contributing 11. shit day coming up, better post thoughts It's so clear you even skipped 7 and 9. (I don't care much about that but it is funny since it reflects you were reordering the 100% clear thoughts) Why would I assume someone has good reasons for their actions if they don't tell me the reasons? That's basically contrary to the game. I'm certainly not going to give you that benefit. | ||
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If are town and you get lynched today, there's a chance you'd see something in mderg or fuba that we didn't. | ||
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On June 06 2014 02:34 HaruRH wrote: I think I might be crazy, but fuba should be the scum in the pond we are looking for. His activity and the way people are killed coincides. Using the kills on d2 and 3 as proof, we have: Bunnies - n2 Bunnies was active at n2 exactly after the lynch, where she said that she was catching up. Fuba was active at that time too. Mderg only came along 10 hours after all the fiasco. It could be right to assume that fuba sent in the name when bunnies was regarded as safe by amiko (amiko was asking bunnies about reads on others and never asked others on reads of her) and me and sqrt were suspected. This is a safe kill for fuba as it only causes trouble for everyone else to lose a 'confirmed' townie. Alakaslam - n3 On n3, both palmar and mderg were pretty active, figuring out the lylo situation. As scum, it would be wise to kill off slam since he could have been blue and was quite a confirmed townie by you all. Slam did not die on n2 since killing off bunnies would have been more beneficial, to deny her time to make claims. Thus, slam the confirmed town was killed off n3 instead. I'm still convinced its fuba. If Palmar is the scum, I'll. .. cry. Ok, but why does that make fuba more likely than Palmar? Just to explain, you can change who you decide to kill / check as long as you do it a while before deadline. Mafia can send in the check at the beginning of the night or toward the end of the night (usually about an hour beforehand is nice so hosts can prepare the day post). It seems to me that either mafia-Fuba or mafia-Palmar would see bunnies and slam as relatively confirmed town. I think this would even apply to mafia-mderg. | ||
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On June 06 2014 02:45 Palmar wrote: No, you're requesting more than reasons. You're requesting inspiration and timeline. Like that has never been a thing in mafia anywhere. You're stuck in your confirmation bias where if I don't have an exact post MZ posted that made me think he's mafia and I responded immediately to that I must be mafia. In that post I was explaining why I thought he was mafia. Yes I gradually became more convinced over time. I probably did some rereading and even more rethinking. I also noticed his activity wasn't keeping up and his content was very lackluster. You're going to have to accept not everyone plays mafia the same way. If you cannot comprehend that I don't think exactly like you, this conversation is pointless. You don't have to play mafia the same way as me. If I see behavior that looks scummy, I want to see an explanation. If the explanation doesn't seem to fit your play at the time, I'm more comfortable disregarding it. Timeline is absolutely a thing in mafia. Haven't you seen MS Paint? | ||
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I do want to give fuba & mderg some love also. | ||
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Do you think scum is likely to not use a roleblock on d2? Especially if scum used a roleblock on d1? When there is no watcher in the game, and there is a cop, it feels pretty unlikely. I can't deny it is possible, but it just seems like a stretch to me so I'd like to hear your explanation of that. | ||
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Amiko
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So, for Palmar I think we talked through your motivations and I wasn’t really convinced, but maybe if you raise some points on mderg and fuba it’ll change my mind. Okay, so let's go through fuba's points on mderg- Fuba raises the point that mderg doesn’t actively push people on d1 and really just hard-defends jabber – when Chrom raises this point, Chrom dies the next day I think there is some legitimacy to the first part of this point, though mderg does raise some concerns on M_Z by the end of the day. But, rereading Chrom’s post, I feel that he is indicating more of a town-lean on mderg so I’m not sure the second part of the point pans out. Chrom’s post:+ Show Spoiler + On May 30 2014 06:35 Chromatically wrote: mderg just feels really genuine to me. I think it would be easy for scum to randomly throw out a scumread to push when I started pressuring him, but mderg didn't back down, which is a much townier position. Scum would be more aware of how strange it looks that they're not pushing a read and would invent one to push. Genuine doesn't necessarily mean town though (I'm very wary of calling mderg town for that one post Palmar liked, I think that could easily come from scum). But, I think his posts show a townie thought process about honestly wanting to defend jabber. 2) Regarding mderg’s move to slOosh from M_Z To me, I think mderg is town not only because his vote ended the day on slOosh (though that is a good sign) but also because of the timing of his switch. For context of when mderg switches to slOosh, check this - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=38#741 – Koshi did a vote count and mderg is the next post. So, when mderg switches, the votes are like this: On May 31 2014 20:55 Koshi wrote: Meapak_Ziphh (3) - slOosh(4) – Amiko, Alakaslam, HaruRH, sqrtofneg1 Sqrtofneg1(1) - fuba Not voting (3) : – 27ninjabunnies, Meapak_Ziphh, gobbledydook What is significant to me about this vote count is the split: sloosh at 4, M_Z at 3. I feel like at this point, the votes were split such that I don’t feel mderg would feel he has to vote for a mafia teammate. I think he could have stayed on M_Z without much suspicion if he really wanted to, or could have even waited until a few more people voted to decide whether to change his mind. I just feel like the changed vote on mderg feels really inconsistent with scum play due to its timing, as well as its result. (Still going through thread) | ||
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Can you talk some about fuba in particular? Ideally I'd like you to make as strong a case on fuba as you can. @fuba: Can you explain to me why you raised your case on sqrt when you did? I think I raised the point earlier- To me, the tone of your post seemed like you were just interjecting in a conversation you were involved in (you said something like "I'm glad you mentioned sqrt"). But, if you were following the conversation, I would have expected you to be caught up on the slOosh / M_Z lynches and weigh in on the bandwagons. It seemed to me like that post just didn't belong at that time. There's other stuff on D2 I'll try to bring up as I continue through thread. | ||
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I don't find your defensive posts to be persuasive. I think it comes down to yes, your play might come from scum or it might come from mistaken town. But, the results have always been anti-town and some of the motivations you claim you have seem unsupported at best, inconsistent at worst, with your play at the time. I'd still prefer you start talking about mderg and fuba. | ||
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I think if we look at your play, you are closer to fuba than you are to mderg, certainly in terms of your positions on M_Z on d2 and d3 and arguably on d1 as well. What makes Fuba scummier than you? I think the sqrt case is an argument, can you give me anything else? | ||
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Amiko
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Mafia can have good reads, doesn't mean much to me. Even if your reads have been legitimate, they mean little given how you acted. Easy example: Your recent post says you "called the too scummy to be scum thing on jabber" - that's nice to say, but your action that day was to try to shut down conversation about any alternate wagons to ensure jabber got lynched. Easy Example: Just saying you suspect slOosh doesn't mean anything when you aren't willing to vote him (or even give an adequate reason why you prefer M_Z). Your posts on slOosh/M_Z showed no analysis 2) Activity You weren't active d2 or d3. You are not a highly active player this game. If you are town, I think it's good you are actually playing today, but it doesn't come off as town to me. The attitude you are taking is ironic and to me, fake, given your play. Now you are complaining to town about how it's already set on a lynch and how it won't try to consider anything else. This comes after 2 days where you voted M_Z, sat on your hands, and tried to actively discourage conversation. This whole blame thing is nice and all, but if you flip town I'll be pretty comfortable chalking it up to your anti-town play and hopefully seeing a win tomorrow in spite of your play. The idea only town can make a lot of posts is almost as persuasive to me as M_Z's case on Alakaslam. 3) Reasons You keep pretending the reasons for the lynch are different from what they are. First you claim you are only being lynched from fear, but now it's only because you voted wrong on M_Z. I think the second reason is pretty good, actually, but it applies to Fuba as well. 4) Fuba I asked you specifically why Fuba is scummier than you, and the only response I saw was: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=65#1291 Additionally, you raise this point earlier- On June 06 2014 06:47 Palmar wrote: @fuba. at some point before day 2, I think it was during night 1 or so, you had a long back and forth with gobble. Can you explain why your suspicions of him seemed to just vanish and the first thing you did on the next day was to vote sqrtofneg1 who you had barely talked about. Did you go after gobble d2? It's counterintuitive that you can think fuba is the most scummy player and that you are a towny player when the grounds apply to both of you. | ||
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On June 07 2014 01:19 HaruRH wrote: It should be obvious by now that both fuba and mderg are intentionally hiding or trying to get attention - I still think fuba is the lynch. I am not going to convince both of you to switch to fuba, but Palmar's flip will prove to be a headache for us. Are they hiding? Or are they trying to get attention? I don't understand how this sentence makes sense on its own, or preceding the statement that fuba is the lynch. | ||
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Amiko
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On June 05 2014 18:50 Palmar wrote: I don't see how this has anything to do with my alignment. Hell, if I am mafia I would like to think I'd actually have continued playing on that day, mostly because I'd have known this was a mislynch and I needed some continuation strategy. What I did instead was to fuck off and leave no strategy for myself as mafia. By this logic, shouldn't you be scumreading mderg? After all, if fuba was mafia he would be playing more, right, since he has to try to squirm out of getting lynched tomorrow? | ||
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Amiko
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It is possible, but I think the likelihood is really remote (and for what it's worth, it seems Palmar and Fuba both are stating the same). If Palmar is lynched and flips town, I think the obvious move is to lynch Fuba tomorrow unless there's any real case on mderg. Take a look at fuba's points on mderg and see what you think of them. I know you suspect fuba, but take a look and see what you think. | ||
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Amiko
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Every time you say you agreed with my analysis of slOosh it just makes me feel you are more likely mafia. Part of my analysis was specifically saying that slOosh is scummier than M_Z. If you agreed with me, you would have gone slOosh. You made no attempt to engage on that point or suggest anything specific about your case was better.. I call you anti-town because you attempted to stop discussion d1 (on jabber, by arguing we shouldn't raise other wagons), d2 (on M_Z, by arguing platitudes rather than merits), d3 (on M_Z, with a 'why should i care' attitude). | ||
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Palmar's argument is that he is town for posting a lot. And also, that he is not playing like M_Z. If this approach actually made sense, we could say "Palmar is posting a lot, we know that town only posts a little before they die, therefore Palmar is scum." It is bad logic either way you push it. | ||
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Amiko
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You are as confirmed town as I am, you can question people too. If you think fuba is suspicious, raise the points you find most suspicious and push them. You can talk to me/Palmar/sqrt about mderg/fuba if you want to convince us of something or raise the points you think are most suspicious. Besides them not posting as much as Palmar, list the things you find most scummy about their play and ask. | ||
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Amiko
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Why is this suspicious? It seems like something fuba would say if he was town (I don't townread him for saying it, I'm just saying it doesn't seem scummy to me) If fuba is town, from his point of view the remaining mafia is either Palmar or mderg. I think fuba recognizes that the prevailing thought is that mderg is the most towny of these three, so it's irrelevant whether Palmar or Fuba is lynched first if mderg is scum. | ||
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On June 07 2014 02:39 Palmar wrote: So by definition while of course I use things like inactivity, interactivity, voting patterns etc to complement my ideas, your argument that part of your case was that sloosh was specifically more scummy than MZ is bullshit. -- I raised the point that slOosh was scummier than M_Z a few times. Here are two quotes I picked as examples, because they show that two other players (sqrt and mderg) specifically understand that I was raising that point. On May 31 2014 08:05 Amiko wrote: Yeah, that's a fair description. I think most of the complaints about M_Z apply to slOosh, except moreso. And slOosh is scummy for other reasons, too. On May 31 2014 21:10 mderg wrote: What Amiko pointed out looks like textbook scumplay to me. With this I´m pretty sure sloosh is scum. My opinion on MZ also didn´t change one bit, it´s just that sloosh is even scummier than him. ##unvote ##vote: slOosh | ||
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On June 07 2014 02:47 HaruRH wrote: >.> you're really bent on killing off both fuba and palmar. But I still think that mderg still have the remote chance of being mafia. We should really let palmar live for one more day, lynch fuba who is still unwilling to contribute until now and make mderg and palmar try to convince the remaining of us who is more scummy should it still go on. The order doesn't matter, but having palmar who is willing to talk is better than fuba, who is just hiding. Don't you think there will be more pressure on fuba to talk tomorrow? When everyone who is left seems to want to vote him? When Palmar isn't here to be a focus? | ||
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@Fuba: On mderg with gobble & M_Z I actually liked this point. I can’t put too much stock in it (if mderg is scum, Palmar is town and he was also pushing for M_Z around the same time) but it was something on mderg I hadn’t looked at. On mderg vote timing I think your point isn’t bad, but I do think scum could believe that sqrt would change his vote. At least, when talk started up about vote changing I wasn’t particularly surprised to see sqrt move his vote given how he had reacted to the votes the prior day. Can you explain what you mean by this a little more? On June 07 2014 02:57 fuba wrote: Huh, palmar's kinda in the same boat as mderg in this situation, except he doesn't switch. My instinct tells me this is evidence of palmar being more likely town than mderg. Dunno though, would have to give that a bit more thought than I have time for atm. | ||
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But why are you alone, shouldn't there be other people there? | ||
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Palmar questions the possibility that if Slam was getting townread for the roleblock, it may make mderg more likely to fake the claim. Alakaslam claimed here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=35#685) I don’t see any real discussion of Slam or the roleblock in a positive way. Actually, I think the little discussion we had of Slam was a null read from sqrt (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=36#710). Nobody really seemed to consider the roleblock. So, I still tend to think mafia was more likely to roleblock mderg than not use the block. @Palmar: I still think the best reasons to suspect fuba being scum is that he makes a case on gobble, basically drops it, then makes a case on sqrt, and again basically drops it. It's hard to say that's scummier than you, though, when I don't feel like you really explored other options. I still feel pretty good about lynching both you and fuba, and I still I think the best way to effect that is lynching you first. Still reading though :3 | ||
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That's pretty much what I think as well. I don't mind heading to obs a little ahead of you guys. | ||
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On May 30 2014 11:58 fuba wrote: I've gotta assume your question about sqrt is when you said that I needed to respond to his case. That is something that I've already done multiple times. I contributed my lynch target, I contributed my reasoning on my lynch target, and I hoped that he would flip scum so that I wouldn't have to deal with nonsense like this after D1. That is pretty much all I ever do D1, give or take random small comments if I have the time. If we disagree about what "contributing" means, we're going to keep doing so. I see no reason to form a read on every single person in the game on D1 when there is very little to go on, a lot of those reads will change because of the flip, and the majority of those reads are going to be really null for me, because I obsess and see possible explanations for situations that most people don't (An example is what I said about jabber's scumteam from last game knowing if he was lying. Amiko said only himself and scum should think about that, and yet I did.) I ignored no questions, as you haven't asked me a question. you made a demand that I do something that I've already done repeatedly. You've actually ignored my questions. Repeatedly. I've also not twisted your words. I've looked at your words in context, and explained what they meant even if you didn't explicitly say it, as I saw them at the time. That is my means of scumhunting, a thing that only townies do. I'd like an answer to my questions now. Hey Fuba- I have other things to bring up, but here's one thing I considered - If you agree with me (that the line of thought I suggested is one that should only come from me or scum) isn't it fairly suspicious that you had that line of thought? | ||
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On June 08 2014 04:21 HaruRH wrote: See. for the whole night, no responses. Time to post fanfics Could you post questions/concerns you have for mderg or fuba instead? I feel like if you recognize that there isn't much action, the best way is to bring up points. (I don't mind if you write some fanfics too) | ||
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Amiko
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I raised some suspicion of Haru on D1 and again later http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=25#499 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=34#666 We now know that Haru is confirmed town. Between mderg and Fuba, do you see either of these players indicating they may want to raise Haru as a mislynch later on in the game? Fuba seems to townread Haru somewhat and doesn't comment on my points on Haru much other than that- + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2014 02:32 fuba wrote: Oh, and I keep bouncing around regarding sqrt. I don't see scum|sqrt preparing to scumread Amiko after the SlOosh lynch, because he would KNOW Amiko is town and KNOW SlOosh is scum. It would be a really weird chain of reasoning to then say that he thought Amiko was scum for pushing the mislynch so hard. Makes me think both Haru and sqrt are town, because I dunno, it's weird that they both agreed on that and came to the conclusion independently when they can't possibly both be scum. At the same time, saying that I seem townie to him (sqrt) for my thought process in a post entirely devoted to calling him scum makes me doubt my assessment of the sloosh situation. Then there's the fact that SlOosh spent the entire game looking for contradictions in peoples' play, and called out MZ, myself, and alakaslam for things he thought were contradictory, but ignored the contradictory statements in sqrt's filter, instead calling him townie for them. However, I'm placing more weight on the former than the latter because I don't want to give slOosh's last post too much sway. K, srsly now. Responding to haru XD On June 05 2014 02:57 fuba wrote: Response to the points brought up by Haru: I don't see any reason to take much of what SlOosh said in that last post seriously anymore. He's confirmed scum, so whatever he said at that point was meant to drag us into wifom. So we shouldn't let it, and ignore most of it, as I'm trying to do with his comments about sqrt. Analysis >>> scum wifom. As for me sheeping the MZ lynch, I should clarify I guess. MZ had been a prime lynch target for the better part of 2 days at that point. There was no way anyone I could suggest was being lynched over MZ even if I thought there was a better lynch. So I saw no point in analyzing anything that might prove pointless, rather than working on my two final projects that are due next week. Technically I wasn't even being lazy, I was just prioritizing my time. I just checked out the votes from the SlOosh lynch again, and I feel like there's a really strong chance that all scum were on the MZ wagon D2, or the last one could have switched over and gotten a mislynch. Amiko was right in that since I was wrong, I was giving scum the chance to switch over to MZ easily. The fact that they didn't makes me feel that one of Palmar/sqrt/Haru is scum. I've already explained why I don't think sqrt and Haru are scum, so that leaves me with Palmar for tomorrow's lynch. mderg does show a little more attention to my points- + Show Spoiler + On May 29 2014 05:29 mderg wrote: Regarding HaruRH: I agree with Amiko that Haru´s play has been strange. The part about the odds is not something I would take seriously. To me it seemed like some kind of joke post. The second point Amiko raises about Haru is definitely strange play. It kinda seemed like throwing a fake lifeline to jabber in order to have some point against him regardless of how jabber continues to play. The third point is something that could go either way. It´s difficult to get a clear read out of setup discussion. So it´s definitely worth it to keep a closer eye on HaruRH. On June 01 2014 18:52 mderg wrote: In general I think scum is either MZ or likely to be found on the MZ wagon. I´m rather confident that it´s one between MZ, Palmar, sqrt, HaruRH. I don´t think it´s fuba, he started that and put himself in the spotlight in a way you probably wouldn´t want to as scum. The voteswitch at the end was strange because I don´t think it was going too easily. I mean the case was solid and based on sloosh´s whole game, and there were still like 3 people voting MZ. On June 04 2014 22:18 mderg wrote: HaruRH was quite active the last few days and seems to be trying to solve the game. His plan of lynching sloosh´s scumlist is based is strange, though. It has solid reasoning behind it but it hugely based on assumptions about sloosh´s intentions. Coincidentally I don´t think HaruRH was on that list. I´m still leaning town on him but this is definitely in the back of my mind. Looking at these two, it's tough to make a good call. On the one hand, mderg picks up on my points a little more, which initially would suggest to me that he might be looking at Haru as a potential mislynch. However, fuba basically ignores the points, so it's hard to say that's really towny. I think looking at the rest of the game, I like mderg's posts on Haru. He does seem to keep his eye on Haru through the game, and eventually seems to lean town on Haru despite the fact that I haven't really relented at that time. In other words, I feel that after M_Z dies, Haru should have been seen as a good mislynch candiate, but that's about when mderg is giving him a townread. So, although he gave the case more attention, it doesn't strike me as the way scum would approach Haru. Thoughts anyone? | ||
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On June 07 2014 08:51 Palmar wrote: I was talking about fuba backtracking on me being mafia. Also since I didn't answer this yesterday, I didn't make much of this point because I thought mderg was also backtracking somewhat on Palmar. + Show Spoiler + On June 07 2014 03:50 mderg wrote: This makes me unsure about Palmar being scum. The advice seems like genuine advice from a townie. I definitely have to think about that. Like a lot of things this game (inactivity/refusal to discuss the game, weird vote movements, etc.) it's something I would usually find suspicious but cannot attribute to scum because I know town players have done this as well. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On June 01 2014 09:10 Amiko wrote: Okay here's another good point @sqrt: Yesterday fuba was content to go with a bandwagon on jabber. He kept his vote on jabber. Today he is afraid of a bandwagon that is going too easily. Yesterday's wagon went more easily. Today he is concerned. WAT On June 01 2014 09:11 fuba wrote: This isn't a "too easy" argument from me. It's the argument that between two players that are relatively identical according to the reads of most players in the thread, this is the wagon that at least two scum are on. This lynch feels more uncertain than yesterday's, and more dangerous. Hm, I guess it almost is a "too easy" argument, but I think the point still stands. And yes, I read people as town based on single posts all the time. If the rest of their filter is pretty "meh" to me, Seeing what I feel is a clear town mindset pretty much makes them town unless I have to completely reevaluate my reads and start from the beginning. I think there's a secondary point worth looking at regarding Fuba's play d2. Look at the beginning of his case on sqrt: + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2014 15:45 fuba wrote: I'm glad you mentioned sqrt, because he's someone who's stuck out to me. His reason for unvoting jabber and voting palmar was that lynches like that end up being wrong. It turns out that he was right, but isn't that a really, really strange reason to unvote someone when you have legitimate reasons to believe he's scum in front of you? Then he swaps back to jabber in order to get more information, even though he thinks palmar is scummier. He then unvotes jabber because of his defense. Not the content of his defense, because that was scummy. He basically unvoted because jabber gave A reason. It wasn't a "too scummy to be scum" argument, it was just - he gave a reason, I think he's town. Then while interacting with Chrom, he says that he doesn't think jabber is town (except he actually did explicitly say "I think he's town now."), but he thinks there's a possibility that jabber is town. This is a really strange thing to say as town because unless someone is somehow modconfirmed scum, there is always the possibility that they're town. That's a given, it's understood by everyone. But he reiterates the fact that he thinks jabber is scummy, but might be town, but might also be scum, about 3-4 times. (cut) Fuba is pointing to sqrt's willingness to vote and unvote on jabber D1 as scummy. He points out that this is suspicious partly because sqrt is still willing to say that jabber may be mafia. But, consider fuba's play d2, specifically when he is moving from sqrt to M_Z: + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2014 08:06 fuba wrote: ##Unvote Something that's bugging me about this lynch is that if slOosh and MZ are generally considered to be scummy in similar ways, then scum could vote for either of them for generally the same reasons. So if they're not both scum, then it's far more likely that today will be a mislynch. SlOosh's last post made me feel like he's town, because he gave his reads instead of just ditching the thread when he's pretty definitely getting lynched. It could be a scum ploy, but his comments about Amiko make me really uneasy about lynching him. He appears to be looking at his own lynch from a townie's eyes. He sees that there are two similar wagons and the driving force behind one being stronger than the other is Amiko. He warns us against trusting anything Amiko says about non-MZ lynches D3 because if SlOosh is town then he knows Amiko's actions have brought scum within one mislynch of winning. That last post from SlOosh is possibly one of the towniest things in the thread, imo, because I find that mentality to be something that's pretty difficult to fake. He doesn't just say "don't trust Amiko", as I believe scum would do, but he took it a step farther and said not to trust him if he tries to push anything other than MZ D3. That is what I find so townie about this post. If I have to vote for one or the other, at the moment, I'd ##Vote: Meapak_Ziphh It bugs me that Palmar hasn't returned to the thread before this lynch, since he's on the MZ wagon but said he's be up for a SlOosh lynch. Dunno if I find him scummy for it, but given my current view of this as a scum-controlled lynch, his absence is allowing what I believe is going to be a mislynch to happen over his top scumread. Here, I think fuba is doing something along the lines of what he has accused sqrt of doing - fuba is basically using the idea that the majority vote would lead to a mislynch. There are some differences, to be fair. Fuba says he is townreading slOosh (and Haru and sqrt seem to feel the same way), so it's different from D1 sqrt who still suspected jabber. I think fuba's reasons are still a little different, too - he is saying that the two are scummy for the same reasons. From my point of view, the scummiest things on both players were the same, except applied more to slOosh. If you went with Palmar's argument (M_Z is scum because he called Palmar town after Palmar called M_Z scum), then the scummiest things on the players were different. I still would like you to explain this a little more fuba. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I'd like your thoughts on this, even though it is speculative - if you are town, why did scum kill Alakaslam instead of you? | ||
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Amiko
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I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon. I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town. If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more. ...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game. As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. | ||
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Amiko
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I didn't look at the meta stuff, I have to step out for a bit but will try to give it a look before tonight. Kind of busy day today :3 | ||
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Amiko
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I was just seeing if either of you felt the other might be picking up on the points more - I think I raised a few good points on Haru and I feel like scum might have seen him as a potential mislynch. But, I don't feel either of you really picked up on him as someone you would want to lynch, so I was curious if either of you saw anything in the other's filter that might change my mind. (ok gone!) | ||
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Amiko
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@Fuba: Regarding pushing lynches I haven’t read all your games, but I took a look at the two you linked. In Basterd Mini Mafia, it seems like you pushed the WoS case and continued to do so until you died. In White Flag, it looks like you pushed hzflank in two posts. In both games you went idle or died shortly after raising the issue, so it’s not like it’s a long string of posts on the people. But, only looking at the two games you posted, I don’t see support for the idea that you make cases and drop them. Anyway, we are talking meta so I can’t say too much for it either way. On copchecks I don’t disagree that mderg makes an unlikely cop check, but I think the problem is that scum loses ground even if I copcheck a town player. Obviously, it is worse for them if I check a scum player (and it becomes a loss if I catch a mafia with 2 already dead), but I feel like there’s still a strong incentive to try to roleblock the cop. Just as evidence of this, if my n3 check (which was on fuba) had not been roleblocked, we would have won regardless of whether he was mafia or town. Without the roleblock, mafia loses. To me, this is really a razor-thin margin for scum to play with, so it’s hard for me to imagine they give up a roleblock when they are potentially so close to losing. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I don't agree with Fuba's portrayal of the slOosh lynch as inevitable, just because it really ended up being so close. I can't say for certani what scum was or wasn't thinking, but given that one vote (gobble) would have tipped the wagon I just have trouble believing scum felt it was inevitable. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Potentially, he would have looked even worse if I had revealed my cop check (and I probably would have if we lynched M_Z because I would have been worried about dying that night), but this is sort of an side issue since scum wouldn't know that. Anyway, if we think about it like that, then Fuba's case on sqrt makes a little more sense- - If sqrt doesn't swap, he can be attacked for being inconsistent (swapping D1, not swapping D2) - If sqrt does swap, it reinforces fuba's point (swapping late, and swapping onto a town player) So I could sort of see the sqrt case as a setup for the following day for fuba to reassert the case on sqrt. | ||
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Amiko
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I expect to die so I'll just say although I haven't enjoyed this game a whole lot, it's been interesting to play. In terms of tomorrow, I think I'd still to lynch fuba. I certainly could be wrong and it's everyone's game, if you decide to vote mderg I don't really mind. If I wanted you to just sheep me, I probably would have told you to do so. Either way, we can always talk more about it post-game. | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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Amiko
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No idea where the game would have gone from there. I was pretty unhappy with the game so I don't have much to say beyond that. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I don't know, I appreciate the praise but I'm mixed on my d2. On the one hand, I think my case on slOosh was super amazing and awesome! But I feel like my case was basically cop claiming even if I didn't say I was cop (that's why I was so certain there was a watcher because I wasn't roleblocked n2, I couldn't believe I wouldn't get rb'd after that). And, it really disheartened me when it felt like no one engaged with the case at all (except maybe slOosh, lol, I think the runner up would be mderg)... I felt like I put in a lot of effort and didn't really obtain any results I wouldn't have gotten by just saying I was cop with a redcheck. I don't really think I'll ever bother spending so much time on a case again. @Epishade On June 10 2014 10:58 Epishade wrote: If I'm a cop and I'm fairly certain I'm about to be nightkilled, is it not a good idea to give out all my checks? Or should I keep that to myself anyways in the off-chance that I don't get nightkilled and just hope that town doesn't vote off town that I checked and confirmed (to myself) as town? If I don't get shot that night, I may get shot the next night for claiming, but I will have confirmed at least another townie or 2 and I won't get lynched most likely. This was my first game as cop on forum, but I felt like I should check people who I thought scum wouldn't kill (so they wouldn't get night killed) but were not getting pushed much by other players (Haru) I think there's a lot of factors so there isn't a clear answer... it depends on who your checks are on, how many scum are left, whether scum has a roleblocker, whether town has protective roles, things like that. I do think though, if you ever redcheck someone and don't get them killed that day, your filter should somehow make it clear that that person needs to die. Someone else with more experience may be able to give you a better answer though. @Blazinghand On June 10 2014 12:37 Blazinghand wrote: What did people think of the newbie/regular mix in this game, combined with the coaching? Did it provide a good environment for players to learn? Was it fun for both newbies and non-newbies? Coaching: I was really pleased to have a chance to get a coach after completing my newbie games, but this was the first game where I was a little too frustrated to use my coach effectively. I do think HolyFlare was very good and I would certainly recommend him as a coach. Experience/Environment: I didn't enjoy the game, but I thought the player experience balance was good. I had issues with Palmar's play, but one thing I felt he did really well this game was using the game to further the community by explaining things to the newest players. I think I really should have done the same thing, even if I'm more a newbie than a regular :D I felt Slam played fine, too. Thanks again for hosting Blazinghand / Koshi / Keirathi and for putting together a game that let us have coaches. Much appreciated. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I don't really see why it's important that Haru and Sqrt vote on the same person in a 4-player LYLO, though. Fuba and mderg were going to crossvote for sure, and there's no guarantee either of the confirmed town is more right than the other. You can argue that makes it a 50% chance, but if they are picking between two players it's still a 50% chance, right? As an aside, Haru seemed a little confused ("Either me or sqrt needs to hold the absolute lynch now, it mustn't fall onto mderg or fuba.") - there was no way mderg or fuba could have controlled the lynch because they had to vote each other. Haru didn't take the lynch power away from them - he took it from sqrt. Anyway glad you were able to figure out who the last scum was Haru, good job and well played! | ||
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Amiko
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It's certainly the odds that I wouldn't have changed I think if nobody was talking on the last day I probably wouldn't change but if you lock in the vote it's fine. | ||
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Amiko
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I don't agree on Palmar's d4 at all. He posted a lot of diary entries, then said he didn't have time to filter dive. He misrepresented his play d1-d3 as though he had always been on the forefront of discussion (not at all). His posts suggested that he didn't read or understand my case on slOosh. Further, Palmar initially ignored my attempts to get him to talk about mderg / fuba, which to me seemed even scummier (if he starts townreading one player, it makes it hard to make a case against the other the following day). He only really engaged on these points when he wasn't convincing me with the others. I certainly understand getting a townread based on tone, but I feel think that is a superficial look that ignores the actual content of his d4 posts (and his prior play). If you mean why lynch palmar before fuba, that was pretty obvious I think - haru is likely to vote mderg in lylo. My d4 was trying to find the most town player out of the three. I started the feeling it was mderg, and finished the game feeling it was mderg. I concede I placed a lot of significance on the n2 roleblock... but my reasoning was correct. Reviewing the scumQT, you never even considered not using the roleblock. I felt Palmar's best point d4 was his questioning how town reacted to the Alakaslam roleblock claim. This was really apt - it went straight to the heart of why I felt mderg was the most town, and it was something I hadn't considered. If I had seen people townreading Alakaslam for his claim, I feel pretty sure would have moved to Fuba and kept Palmar alive. I reread the thread very thoroughly and concluded that Slam really hadn't gotten towncred for the roleblock claim. Ultimately, this only made me feel mderg's roleblock claim was more likely to be true since scum would be giving something up without being sure they would gain anything, so I wanted to ensure mderg lived and fuba & palmar were lynched. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Before forum mafia, I've never played with people who let themselves die without a fight. Here it seems like most people just sort of give into inertia and let themselves get lynched. Palmar certainly didn't, but to me pre-lynch tone reads mean very little. Do you really think you'll not vote someone just because they try to make you "sign" italicized text? I don't. | ||
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Amiko
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It certainly was more town toned, I just don't think last day tone is enough to convince me to overcome play. As an example: some people switched off slOosh based on tone. I read slOosh's prior games as scum, his last posts this game were quite a bit different from the other games where he was being lynched as scum. Why can't the same be true for Palmar? | ||
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Amiko
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Amiko
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Why is it bullheaded to not change your mind when you aren't given reason to change your mind, and are actually given support for your opinion? | ||
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Amiko
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On June 11 2014 04:43 Koshi wrote: Palmar his D4 was pretty town. You could respect lynch him in case he has superb scumplay. Basically Palmar looked bad because he wanted to lynch MZ D1&D2 and MZ ended up being town. That's kinda it. From what I read. I didn't understand the "Palmar tried to shut down discussion in the thread" case. I didn't see that happen tbh. But wasn't in game and didn't read too closely D2; I can throw a few quick examples- D1: Didn't want people to bring up new wagons (other than jabberwockzerg). ex: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=29#565 D2: Shut down points on merits of M_Z/slOosh. D3: His response to scumhunting was basically 'let's not play this game any more unless M_Z flips town' ex: On June 03 2014 08:59 Amiko wrote: @Palmar / @Haru / @Alakaslam: Do you think mderg is buddying me? Or do his posts feel natural to you? On June 03 2014 09:17 Palmar wrote: Do I have to care? (though seriously this is most of his d3 filter) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 11 2014 04:36 marvellosity wrote: tbh it pretty much feels like when Palmar said on d4 that you needed to learn from what went down, that you haven't. You're trying to post-hoc justify his play as scummy when he was town? On this I argued his play was scummy quite a bit in the game, so I don't see why you are saying it is post-hoc. And yeah Palmar's lesson to me on d4 was 'don't play scared' and I don't see how that applies to your point (or how being scared = being bullheaded)? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I've changed my mind on people all the time... in my first game, I started LYLO convinced that one player (Valenius) was mafia, to the point I told him that he should vote the 3rd player (theDragoon) but I would probably still vote Valenius anyway. By the end of the day I moved to the other. I just don't value tone reads much (especially on forums when I can't even see or hear the person), I'd rather look at the whole game than one day. I don't disagree that town can shut down discussion... I had this conversation with my coach. I just feel that sooner or later you have to pick what heuristic you are going to use. More than one person is switching their vote to town at deadline. More than one person are encouraging people to switch their vote to town. More than one person is using bad logic. More than one person is changing reads without much reason. More than one person is making really strange end of day comments. More than one person is being idle when a lynch isn't certain. I have to pick some sort of grounds to decide who is scummy and who isn't (or I can just RNG). I really think the n2 roleblock was a fair thing to hang my hat on. If you agree, then the lynches should be Palmar and Fuba. | ||
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Amiko
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On June 11 2014 05:14 justanothertownie wrote: To the bolded: What could he have done? There is nothing he could have said about that. The only thing he can do is try to convince you that he is town/one of the others is scum apart from that and if that argument is everything you care about he could aswell have not posted at all. If he convinced me there was a better heuristic to use than the n2 roleblock. I didn't see any and I don't think he did either. | ||
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Amiko
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The heuristic was right, and the analysis was right. It was wrong because scum's intended action didn't go through. | ||
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Amiko
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My confusion to you guys on Palmar is sort of this- It seems to me like you read Palmar as town d4 due to two parts of meta (Palmar-meta and TL-meta). I do feel I looked into Palmar meta and didn't give me support either way - it's fine to say he doesn't post like that as scum getting lynched, but I didn't see him post like that as town getting lynched, so it's a wildcard. I felt he was likely to post a ton more on d4 if he was a lynch target given his low activity d2 and d3, so to me it all felt pretty much in line with expectations. I don't really know TL-meta enough to use it, but I'm a little surprised (and honestly, kind of disappointed) to hear that scum players don't put up that kind of defense on this site. I don't know if that would convince me, though As to Blazinghand, I don't really know which option to take as to the mislynch yet - I feel like (as most things in my play do) what I do will just depend more on the specific game than an overriding heuristic. That was kinda what I meant earlier - here, I felt that game was the best heuristic, but largely because I couldn't use many others. Oh and just to be clear, although the host error added an unpleasant aftertaste, please understand I don't mind at all. I think it would have been bad if the game was cancelled (particularly for players like bunnies, it would suck to have 3 games cancelled in a row) so I think your call was the best given the situation. These things happen and even if it threw me off, when I found out mderg was scum I was incredibly impressed he would make that play! It may not have actually happened, but it was neat to feel like I was so wrong, lol. | ||
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Amiko
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(I was bummed to lose the chance to be scum, oh well) | ||
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