On December 09 2016 19:25 Chairman Ray wrote:
When hopeless gets back, I would like to hear his answer for this:
When hopeless gets back, I would like to hear his answer for this:
okay, but you haven't answered my questions.
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 09 2016 19:25 Chairman Ray wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 19:16 cakepie wrote: What do you think of H1 specifically that EoD1 behavior - "i'd spite vote but won't" - unfair "pick one answer now" questions - voting after we've left off When hopeless gets back, I would like to hear his answer for this: Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 07:51 Chairman Ray wrote: Also hopeless, why did you vote TW after cakepie and I rescinded? okay, but you haven't answered my questions. | ||
ExO_
United States2315 Posts
On December 09 2016 19:06 Chairman Ray wrote: ExO, would you mind taking a look at my case on NU: Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 06:44 Chairman Ray wrote: My original case about NU still stands. At the start of D1, NU and TW had townreads on one another. There was no pressure on them from anybody else. All I did was ask each of them, in a very neutral manner, what their townread was. If you were town and genuinely believed that the other person was town as well, you would just give me your town reads. Instead, NU posted his scumreads on TW about how TW is overpocketing him. The posts that NU were criticizing were posted BEFORE NU said that TW was towny. So when TW was overpocketing NU, NU should be suspicious at that time, but instead, he gave TW a townread. It wasn't until I asked him for his reasonings did he finally post his suspicions. From a mafia perspective, this makes perfect sense. Chairman Ray asked both TW and NU what their townreads were. Oh crap, he's onto us, better not seem too friendly. From a town perspective, this doesn't make a lot of sense. Secondly, NU in two instances asked about what other people's reads of him were. At those times, TW had a strong townread on him, and only I was really on him. He argued that I wasn't pushing on him, so I guess he didn't feel any pressure at all. I would expect town to only worry about their perception if they are under the gun. So given that the overall vibe was positive towards NU, why was he so pre-occupied with other people's reads on him? For starters: On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote: I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. Isn't exactly a neutral entrance. You may have asked each of them what they thought, after your very first move in the game is to say you want to lynch both of them. However NU's filter does kinda look bad as I read it. It's really wishy washy all over the place. It makes it difficult for me, because I really don't like the way you've played CR and my immediate reaction to that has been to assume your scum. So let me ask you CR, assume for a second that TW is town, and NU is scum. Who would the 2nd scum be with NU? | ||
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 19:04 Chairman Ray wrote: On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #164 TW hard town reading me --> Scum trying to buddy me because I'm town. Other players I think are town think I might be scum because I wanted cop to reveal (because I thought we had to lynch today). However they think I might be scum faking it. TW isn't even considering this possibilty. #164 #170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk #173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here. #180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives #182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain #185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. Instead he reminds me a bit of myself getting scumread as VT in other TL Mafia games and trying to convince players I am town; subsequently the veterans turning everything I say into reasons why it makes me scum. idk When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum. #186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me. #203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU #205 Cakepie should go read my dota mafia posts, and should look at the last game we played. When I'm town I usually just post whatever comes to mind. I don't sit and craft careful posts. When I'm scum I'm much more careful about what I post. You getting my stream of consciousness and seeing me move around on my reads is because I'm trying to sift through the information and am doubting myself as I go. Do you honestly think I'm faking this as scum? I have trouble believing that you do #213 fuck off #215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him #217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum. #228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum. #231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted? #234 CR still tunnelling NU very hard. I wish CR would consider some other possibility. To me he looks like he's more concerned with having presented a case and pushed it, rather than solving the game. Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum. CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum. ExO, I don't think your read on me is fair, and to some extent, it's my fault for hunting scum on my own rather than being engaged with town. I think that you are town, so I will explain to you exactly what my thought process was. I really need you and all remaining town to trust me, or at least take my reads seriously, because we all need to vote together tomorrow to lynch the mafia. Where I'm at right now is that TW and NU are the mafia, you are town, cakepie is town, hopeless is town, and obviously I am town. I have mainly pushed onto TW and NU because there are only two mafia, and it's most definitely those two. I think we can all agree that TW is mafia. I pushed onto NU many times and he's given me shoddy answers the first few times, and he's literally disappeared now and hasn't responded to anything else I posted. I posted a case on him that I want him to respond to, and I want all the town to consider as well, and so far, neither has happened. Also, nobody else has given a strong case against anybody else. Do you see why I have no reason to get off of those two? I haven't pushed much on anybody else besides TW and NU, but that doesn't mean I haven't been considering or caring about them. As for you, hopeless, and cake, there's a lot I like about your play, and a lot that I don't like, but there's little that I can point to and say "hmm, this play is really advancing the scum agenda, and scum would instinctively do this". I don't post townreads or speculative posts on people because me not being able to scumread someone doesn't mean someone else can't. If someone convinces me of a better option than TW or NU, I'm willing to reconsider. I should probably be more actively engaging with people, and that's my bad. I also feel that I'm being singled out for tunneling. If you look at other people's filters, Hopeless has been tunneling only on TW, cakepie has mostly been on TW and you, and you haven't been aggressive enough to even be considered for tunneling. So besides the fact that I literally said that I'm tunneling onto TW and NU, singling me out seems a little biased. I don't think I can agree TW is mafia. I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game, and he's done some things that have looked scummy. But the type of posts he's made (particularly after #170), the big cases he posted, I don't think scum can fake that effort. A lot of people were tunneling him quite a bit but his reaction overall to that to me doesn't read scum now. I feel like pointing out that I'm singling you out for tunneling (I don't think I am) isn't really a town thing to post. To me, it screams "look at all these other people they are doing something just as bad." I don't think tunneling is necessarily scum-indicative. But these 2 players are the only players you've said anything about all game. I practically challenge you to give a read on anybody else and you just can't. You're so sure of TW and NU that you're going to stick to them non stop....and I don't buy it as a town trait. I think you are a scum player who is going to stick to those reads come hell or high water. I mean look at your above post. "I think we can all agree TW is mafia: why? That's all you are going to offer here? And you're basically saying NU is scum because he gave some shoddy answers....but I don't see how that makes you lock in on scum so hard here. I don't see it. How are you so sure. No I think it's much more likely you are scum. I feel that it's very difficult to get through to you because you are interpreting everything I say in the worst possible way when I didn't mean it that way. | ||
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. I'm witholding information that is useful to scum. I'm asking you for information that is not useful to scum. Difference! Let's say I accept you've been operating on stream-of-consciousness mode. Fine. The problem I'm having with that is that while you go down the list of posts and toss out whatever comes to mind, you're not stopping to elaborate, and you've also missed questions that were embedded in posts. I don't know if you missed them if you're just focused on posting your brief impressions, or if you're deliberately dodging or ignoring. That's what rubs me the wrong way. On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me. Seems like a convoluted way to say "I like your case, cakepie, and I trust you and want to try to contribute more to a TW scum case." Again, I don't find you picking at parts of my case and saying what you agree/disagree with. | ||
ExO_
United States2315 Posts
On December 09 2016 19:40 cakepie wrote: Show nested quote + (Not sure where you got the idea that I'm female, I'm not.)On December 09 2016 12:44 ExO_ wrote:Im sure cakepie will show up soon, and hopefully she can prepare her usual list of things for me to respond to. Outstanding things you haven't responded to me or elaborated about:
Maybe this time I'll finally get those answers and elaboration from you, now that I've gone and collated the questions for you in one spot? --- Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote: I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game Easy for you to say this, very hard for me to see your progression and reasons. Can you filter TW for me and tell me which posts are scummy/towny to and why. Didn't I just play a game with you? I must be confusing you with someone else, don't know who. #98: I don't remember. It's what I thought skimming the thread at the time. I don't see why you are so concerned with that particular read considering all of the new information and posts we've had since then. I got a town impression of him, not based off some super analysis but based purely off how I felt at the time. #107 You are misconstruing what happened here. If I recall correctly in touhou mafia (assuming I haven't confused you with someone else) I thought you played well and your opening here reminded me of it. So when you started posting a scum case on TW, I looked at it and started to think that yeah TW looks scummy. But I was worried that my impression of your gameplay in touhou mafia was affecting my ability to assess if TW was scummy on my own. #161 I didn't have any major points I disagreed with. Mainly, my impression of TW was scummy and I wanted to say I agreed that he was scummy. I wasn't putting much effort in the game because I was tired after getting home from work. Your turn: Why would you push so hard for a lynch on mylo, instead of waiting one more day? Its inherently anti-town, and incredibly high risk Why would the reasons I disagreed with your case on TW be super important? I find it odd that you'd care more about the reasons for disagreeing with you than the reasons why I would think TW is scum. | ||
ExO_
United States2315 Posts
On December 09 2016 19:52 cakepie wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. I'm witholding information that is useful to scum. I'm asking you for information that is not useful to scum. Difference! Let's say I accept you've been operating on stream-of-consciousness mode. Fine. The problem I'm having with that is that while you go down the list of posts and toss out whatever comes to mind, you're not stopping to elaborate, and you've also missed questions that were embedded in posts. I don't know if you missed them if you're just focused on posting your brief impressions, or if you're deliberately dodging or ignoring. That's what rubs me the wrong way. Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me. Seems like a convoluted way to say "I like your case, cakepie, and I trust you and want to try to contribute more to a TW scum case." Again, I don't find you picking at parts of my case and saying what you agree/disagree with. I don't like your case. Are either of you reading the same TW I am? This reads so much more like a cornered townie who is trying his damnedest to prove he is town only to get constantly told everything he does is scummy. Unless TW is some kind of super player who I don't know about then I find it highly unlikely that he's able to just pull out this level of effort. | ||
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 09 2016 20:00 ExO_ wrote: #107 You are misconstruing what happened here. If I recall correctly in touhou mafia (assuming I haven't confused you with someone else) I thought you played well and your opening here reminded me of it. So when you started posting a scum case on TW, I looked at it and started to think that yeah TW looks scummy. But I was worried that my impression of your gameplay in touhou mafia was affecting my ability to assess if TW was scummy on my own. I was the fucking host, goddammit! How inattentive can you get?! | ||
ExO_
United States2315 Posts
On December 09 2016 19:52 cakepie wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. I'm witholding information that is useful to scum. I'm asking you for information that is not useful to scum. Difference! What information could you be withholding that is useful to scum? What kind of information could that possibly be? Everything I can think of would be better discussed in town, except if you are the cop. And this should be obvious but the only reason cops information shouldn't be public yet is because we want to get another night of information in before we have to lynch. | ||
ExO_
United States2315 Posts
On December 09 2016 20:05 cakepie wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 20:00 ExO_ wrote: #107 You are misconstruing what happened here. If I recall correctly in touhou mafia (assuming I haven't confused you with someone else) I thought you played well and your opening here reminded me of it. So when you started posting a scum case on TW, I looked at it and started to think that yeah TW looks scummy. But I was worried that my impression of your gameplay in touhou mafia was affecting my ability to assess if TW was scummy on my own. I was the fucking host, goddammit! How inattentive can you get?! I confused you with Calix then I guess. Your names both start with Ca. Errors like this happen. You might not like it, but thats the kind of person I am. I make silly mistakes. This isn't the first time and won't be the last. | ||
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On December 09 2016 19:42 cakepie wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 19:25 Chairman Ray wrote: On December 09 2016 19:16 cakepie wrote: What do you think of H1 specifically that EoD1 behavior - "i'd spite vote but won't" - unfair "pick one answer now" questions - voting after we've left off When hopeless gets back, I would like to hear his answer for this: On December 09 2016 07:51 Chairman Ray wrote: Also hopeless, why did you vote TW after cakepie and I rescinded? okay, but you haven't answered my questions. Here's my take on it The spite vote in itself wasn't the suspicious part for me. The spite vote combined with the timing of it was really fishy. Hopeless clearly stated that he wants to lynch TW: On December 09 2016 06:44 Hopeless1der wrote: ##Unvote##Vote: Tumblewood I fully understand that this day is going to be a no lynch. I'm like 51/49 on lynhching TW today. However, hopeless only voted after you and I rescinded our votes. He was on during the entire time, so he could have pushed it to 3 votes and maybe gotten the lynch. However he chose to vote after we rescinded when his vote was completely useless. On December 09 2016 04:39 Hopeless1der wrote: EBWOP: Shitty nested quotes also Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 04:01 Hopeless1der wrote: On December 09 2016 02:02 Tumblewood wrote: well I'm never going to convince you that you're scum. but understand that I am doing the best job I can finding scum using logic I consider to be good. TW, you think cakepie is scum? What the fucking fuck? Please respond to this with either "I think cakepie is scum" or "I do not think cakepie is scum". Thank you for your cooperation, Tumblewood. Tumblewood answered a different one instead, and hopeless kept pushing. I think there was a little miscommunication here. I was about to interject and clarify it, but wanted to see how it would play out instead. In the end, hopeless did not ever correct Tumblewood on answering the wrong question, and decided to vote him anyways. To me that seems like Hopeless wasn't that interested in TW's answer anyways. With these three things combined, there's a bunch of ways you could interpret it, but the motive I'm concerned about is that Hopeless just wanted to distance himself from TW. It would give rise to the scenario where hopeless is scum with TW. That would also explain why TW seemed quite unconcerned with 3 people voting him at EOD. If I were town in that position, I would be begging people to get their votes off so that mafia couldn't hammer it. TW was unphased by it until after the day ended, and then proceeded to post a few big long posts, which would have made more sense to post before EOD. It's late and I'm not sure if I'm getting my read across, but to summarize, I think this is a possible scenario: Hopeless and TW are mafia together Hopeless thinks "oh crap, TW is under a lot of fire, everyone's on him but me. I better draw some distance too" Hopeless draws distance by doing the whole binary question thing and also threatening to vote him, but doesn't follow up on TW answer the question Chairman Ray and cakepie vote TW TW thinks "Well, I know for a fact that Hopeless won't kill me, and NU won't vote me either, so I'm safe" Chairman Ray and cakepie unvote TW Hopeless votes TW and says "I'm 51/49 on killing you!" That just one way I could interpret this really awkward exchange between TW and hopeless. I don't really see a scenario where hopeless is mafia and TW is town, that seems really weird to me. If hopeless is town and had good town intentions, I would like him to speak for himself, which is why I asked him earlier. | ||
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 09 2016 20:06 ExO_ wrote: What information could you be withholding that is useful to scum? What kind of information could that possibly be? Everything I can think of would be better discussed in town, except if you are the cop. And this should be obvious but the only reason cops information shouldn't be public yet is because we want to get another night of information in before we have to lynch. Information that helps scum bluesnipe by process of elimination in townies. blue reads isn't the only way scum can bluesnipe. On December 09 2016 19:32 ExO_ wrote: and as another aside, killing somebody yesterday is anti-town purely from a numbers perspective. 2/3 chance of guessing wrong and instantly losing, vs waiting a day, 3/5 chance of guessing wrong. Not to mention we get an extra day of information by waiting, and potentially cop's information (though fake claims could fuck this up). I think the people voting yesterday are highly suspect. CR/Cakepike/H1D are all at the top of my suspicions. Voting yesterday was an anti-town play almost any way you look at it, in my opinion On December 09 2016 20:00 ExO_ wrote: Why would you push so hard for a lynch on mylo, instead of waiting one more day? Its inherently anti-town, and incredibly high risk Pressure vote. + Show Spoiler + On December 09 2016 01:13 cakepie wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 00:32 Tumblewood wrote: if one more punk decides to vote me scum can and will hammer without warning. we are in MyLo, aka lose the game if you're wrong mode. are you really so confident in yourself because you wrote more words than me that you would risk this. for the love of god, don't be stupid You're pleading for town?cakepie to stop being stupid and worried that one fool plus two scum will make 4. I can't find that one fool, though. Now that I have your attention, try being a bit more useful and I'll reevaluate you on your contribution. In the world where TW and I are both town, and both NU and ExO have shown strong inclination to nolynch, and I am sticking around monitoring things, what I did was safe. As fucking sleepy as I was, I was on phone in bed between 3:45am and 5:30am, watching in case the wagon ever got to three I would immediately get up and unvote. Fuck this. Time for dinner and to cool off and hopefully not be so exasperated when I come back. | ||
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On December 09 2016 19:44 ExO_ wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 19:06 Chairman Ray wrote: ExO, would you mind taking a look at my case on NU: On December 09 2016 06:44 Chairman Ray wrote: My original case about NU still stands. At the start of D1, NU and TW had townreads on one another. There was no pressure on them from anybody else. All I did was ask each of them, in a very neutral manner, what their townread was. If you were town and genuinely believed that the other person was town as well, you would just give me your town reads. Instead, NU posted his scumreads on TW about how TW is overpocketing him. The posts that NU were criticizing were posted BEFORE NU said that TW was towny. So when TW was overpocketing NU, NU should be suspicious at that time, but instead, he gave TW a townread. It wasn't until I asked him for his reasonings did he finally post his suspicions. From a mafia perspective, this makes perfect sense. Chairman Ray asked both TW and NU what their townreads were. Oh crap, he's onto us, better not seem too friendly. From a town perspective, this doesn't make a lot of sense. Secondly, NU in two instances asked about what other people's reads of him were. At those times, TW had a strong townread on him, and only I was really on him. He argued that I wasn't pushing on him, so I guess he didn't feel any pressure at all. I would expect town to only worry about their perception if they are under the gun. So given that the overall vibe was positive towards NU, why was he so pre-occupied with other people's reads on him? For starters: Show nested quote + On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote: I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. Isn't exactly a neutral entrance. You may have asked each of them what they thought, after your very first move in the game is to say you want to lynch both of them. However NU's filter does kinda look bad as I read it. It's really wishy washy all over the place. It makes it difficult for me, because I really don't like the way you've played CR and my immediate reaction to that has been to assume your scum. So let me ask you CR, assume for a second that TW is town, and NU is scum. Who would the 2nd scum be with NU? Yeah, after both you and TW gave me shit for the way I present my reads, I know that I fucked that up. If I see someone do something that has a clear mafia motive, but can also be interpreted from a town side, I just push them for being mafia, and accuse them for one of the many scenarios that could have occurred. If they tell me a valid town perspective, then we're great, but if they can't give me a perspective that makes sense coming from town, then lynch lynch lynch. I realized after both you and TW gave me shit for it that the push just falls flat due to some glaringly obvious logic flaws. TW reacting similarly to you was the only slight townread I have on him, and that was why I rescinded my vote on him before EOD. To your other question, if TW is town, NU is scum, my original suspicion was hopeless. This post gave me a slight yellow flag that I was keeping an eye on: On December 08 2016 11:00 NeverUnlucky wrote: Show nested quote + On December 08 2016 10:49 Chairman Ray wrote: On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote: On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote: On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote: I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios. I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me. Ray looks sketchy to me. TW looks Town. Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't. The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it. But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now. So just to summarize, these are my suspicions: - TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe - TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind" Summed up "Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post. I don't think you represented my case fairly. I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it? They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it. Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW. So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie? He asked me about ExO and cakepie, but leaving hopeless out, which is a weak associative tell. If there continued to be this awkward silence between the two of them, that would have definitely been a red flag for me. However, after EOD with the hopeless-TW interaction, it's just too weird to believe that hopeless can be scum without TW. Also at the time, I had no case against hopeless besides his inactivity. NU hasn't been playing the last half of the game, so there's not much more to read into. Right now, I just want him to answer the case that I have already presented. My strongest read right now is still TW and NU. | ||
cakepie
985 Posts
Your reasons for scumming him are: 1. N0 planning, feigning activity? (same as TW) 2. D1 distancing from TW (NU+TW scum) 3. wanting you to push him 4. caring about how he is perceived I'm not saying that these aren't valid reasons. But I'm going to need you to try some good faith for a moment and consider these viewpoints: 1a. I have (weak? meta) reasons to see planning/mechanics as within the range of town?NU; #43 is a naive desire to have simple cop v mafia fakecop fights with no VTs fakeclaiming blue. 1b. #46 is a sound response to #45. With no VTs fakeclaiming blue, force scum to kill the doc N1 for a free flip without needing cop to check doc. Better plan than TW's careless crap; he's thinking as compared to TW's blindly enumerate. 2. The distancing argument relies on #87 + Show Spoiler + On December 07 2016 10:10 NeverUnlucky wrote: Show nested quote + On December 07 2016 08:59 Tumblewood wrote: current evaluation of ray is neutral and bad, as opposed to everyone else (besides NU I guess) who are neutral and not playing Same feeling for ray, but everyone else (besides you who I've a fetus of a town-lean on) is like ray for me cause 'not playing' IS bad. Pay attention to context. "fetus of a town-lean" for activity, since no one else is present/active -- only NU, TW, CR are around, and town?NU is in OMGUS CR mode thanks to CR's "lynch NU+TW" post. 3. The problem here, Ray, is that you buggered off for good chunks of time without pushing your scumreads. He could be saying "scum!CR isn't pushing me enough for how strong his read seems to be, that's scummy!" 4. Subjective. So take a moment and untunnel yourself, this is essential for what I'm about to draft+post up next. | ||
cakepie
985 Posts
Is ExO derptown or derpscum? I think ExO is derpscum with TW. I've been suspecting it since here. On December 08 2016 04:57 cakepie wrote: I thank H1, this was for triggering me to look at ExO. I only had time to take a quick look at his filter before going to bed, but I saw enough to want to call others' attention to it. Reminding NU to filter ExO is a hint for the attentive -- I had not asked for it before, this is a fake reminder.
I've been keeping an eye on TW+ExO interactions ever since. My ExO case post #186 seems weak because I deliberately tried not to include any associative read stuff of TW+ExO. At the same time I pressured TW, and the idea behind it is that with a more solid scum read on TW, we can move on to discuss TW+ExO on firmer footing. I realize association reads aren't great, but keep in mind our game format. We don't have the luxury of time and mislynches. Also, I think now that scum have had more time to slip up, we can also see a few more things that might make ExO scum, independently of the association read. I suggest you open the thread in another window and follow along my filter reading. Max goggles on. Here goes. #37+#45 Talking setup / plans is suspicious but technically NAI. I grant TW defending that town?TW might be "just trying to figure the game out" But going from awareness of "mylo" to optimism for D3 is a scumslip. TW is faking contribution by blindly enumerating the day-to-day progression. He forgot about mylo -- it's not important to scumbleweed. It's very important for town. Town wouldn't forget. #50, #51, #53, #61 + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 15:34 ExO_ wrote: Hi. claiming Vanilla Town. Going back to PoE On December 06 2016 15:52 Tumblewood wrote: ugh I hope this isn't "hi I'm VT bye" because night doesn't mean we can't play. especially when you won't get killed for your reads because N0 On December 06 2016 15:57 ExO_ wrote: And what if it is? On December 07 2016 00:09 Tumblewood wrote: it's not but for the rest of the game I would have been biased towards lynching you This is a distancing maneuver. Tinfoil: ExO isn't going to fakeclaim cop. Chalk one up for craycray's "scum isn't fakeclaiming"? #54 On December 06 2016 15:57 ExO_ wrote: Show nested quote + On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote: On December 06 2016 14:22 cakepie wrote: if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1. 45% raw odds of fulfilling prerequisites for the plan, awesome! we can confirm up to five players as town sweet, even if no redchecks, we can find all five town by D3, which PoE the other two for confscum! good job! such plan much wow any NA still ard or am I stuck waiting for EU to wake up? pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. anyway even if the odds slightly favor us I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring Cop should 100% claim tomorrow, regardless of what happens. I cite 45% raw odds for cop surviving to D1 + doc surviving to D2. ExO wants cop claim 100% on D1. No explanation, no qualification. Failure to heed my warning of poor odds. #59 On December 06 2016 18:33 ExO_ wrote: Show nested quote + On December 06 2016 17:30 Koshi wrote: Oh no doc save N0. That makes more sense. I am going to do nothing and see if mafia respect kills me. If Koshi doesn't die tonight kill him tomorrow Tinfoil: Scum will respect kill Koshi, ExO throws smoke: Koshi might live. Meanwhile TW does a different thing and takes the line that Koshi is likely to die. TW feels obliged to list other people who might die besides Koshi. He clumsily puts NU and himself in with Koshi. This leads to some scumblingtumbling #76,#77,#78. Notice that TW and ExO are the only two players who discuss Koshi nightkill unprompted. Townies don't give a shit who's going to die. It's out of our control. Ray is correct that scum did not expect a blueflip. This is despite 40% chance of a blueflip. People who ignored math: TW, ExO, NU. #93 On December 07 2016 14:26 Tumblewood wrote: Show nested quote + On December 07 2016 11:14 Chairman Ray wrote:You mentioned that you are leaning town on NeverUnlucky (specifically you said not neutral). What's your reasoning for that read? it's my way of trying to get people to be active. I reward people for trying if town is dead. Since N0 was pretty quiet, this is going to be my go-to excuse in case I get caught giving out cheap townreads. #98 On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote: I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios. I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me. Ray looks sketchy to me. TW looks Town. Attack Ray's case. Attack Ray. buddyOMGUS Town NU for pretty weak reasons. No, TW is not buddying NU! <-- never gave a satisfactory explanation for why, despite both NU and cake asking. Towns TW without reasons. <-- when pressed by cake, #265 + Show Spoiler + I don't remember. It's what I thought skimming the thread at the time. I don't see why you are so concerned with that particular read considering all of the new information and posts we've had since then. I got a town impression of him, not based off some super analysis but based purely off how I felt at the time. #105 The last time ExO played another video game instead of mafia, he was scum in Dota2 playing civ6. (joke) more seriously: start paying attention to how long he takes to get around answering questions (if even at all). #107 is a huge scumtell. On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote: Just sat down and actually read TW's plan before, I kinda didn't pay much attention to it at first. It's actually dogshit assuming cop and doc are going to make it through to d2 with everythink hunky dory, so much to the point that I have a hard time thinking he meant it to be taken seriously. NU says (I had a hell of a time trying to copy/paste this quote so I'm just copy pasting the direct portion): "His posts don't seem like he's trying to appear good rather like he's saying what he thinks." And I think this is a hella convoluted thing to say. Saying what you think isn't necessarily a town indicator, and conversely trying to appear good isn't soley a scum indicator. I don't have a good reason for this though, but twice he's said he likes to "reward town for giving a shit". [+ Show Spoiler + On December 07 2016 01:24 Tumblewood wrote: Show nested quote + On December 07 2016 00:46 Tumblewood wrote: On December 07 2016 00:39 NeverUnlucky wrote: On December 07 2016 00:36 Tumblewood wrote: On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote: On December 07 2016 00:28 Tumblewood wrote: On December 07 2016 00:26 NeverUnlucky wrote: On December 07 2016 00:24 Tumblewood wrote: On December 07 2016 00:17 NeverUnlucky wrote: Yo, TW, you up for a chat with me? I've one spare hour I've got half of one but sure Noice. Do you think you're a good cop check for tonight? no because I think I'm one of the more likely players to die tonight That's the generic answer. Why do you think so? Have you ever been NKed before? Judging from HM3 idk why you would think you're in danger of being killed, lol. If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. This game is pretty slow so far. because the NK is always between me you and Koshi. the other players aren't 'respected'and aren't acting townie either Oh wow, so much honor for me. c: What do you think of other players' entries, specifically cakepie entering with math and hopeless checking in to check out? And Koshi, what happened to the "This town isn't going to be lazy" shtick you had last game? their entrances are not exciting so idc as for you, me, koshi I like to reward give-a-shitness ebwop + Show Spoiler + On December 07 2016 14:26 Tumblewood wrote: Show nested quote + On December 07 2016 11:14 Chairman Ray wrote: On December 07 2016 08:55 Tumblewood wrote: On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote: I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. worst case scenario: blue role dies ways to prevent it: glad we figured that one out and I think I did say "if things don't go according to plan we play mafia as normal" Point taken. You mentioned that you are leaning town on NeverUnlucky (specifically you said not neutral). What's your reasoning for that read? it's my way of trying to get people to be active. I reward people for trying if town is dead. the way he's speaking about "rewarding town" instead of rewarding a player is really fucking off. You reward a player with town cred, you don't "reward town" for speaking. Best lead I have so far. But I'm skeptical. What if I'm just seeing your read and starting to suspect him because of that instead of actual scum slipping. hm :/ Dismisses TW's flawed plan as not "meant to be taken seriously". ExO is only player who thinks so. Trying to reduce scrutiny. Tries to find other things to town TW. Looks for other players towning TW. Finds NU's quote. NU explaining his TW townread to CR. But then something looks off and scum!ExO gets sidetracked trying to awkwardly read NU for that quote. <-- scumslip "hella convoluted thing"... so is that scummy or what? Doesn't commit to a read. Note also: + Show Spoiler + On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote: Saying what you think isn't necessarily a town indicator, and conversely trying to appear good isn't soley a scum indicator Goes back to TW. Oh shit Fails at digging up dirt. "Yeah my best scumread so far is the same as yours. But I'm skeptical TW is scum. Why are you making me scumread him?" Doesn't take responsibility for his read. Couches it in wording so that he can go back to towning TW. Excuse given later: "I was worried that my impression of #109/#110 is fixing his scumslip, then fixing his completely fucked up fake scumread on TW. #112 "Town is in a bad spot. Cop should claim." cakepie gets back from dinner. The post resonated with super-pessimistic cakepie on a gut level, particularly the appeal on the basis that we need time to discuss counterclaims. but cakepie sees the nolynch. ExO didn't see the nolynch. scum!ExO tried expound a townie reason to followup his earlier "cop 100% claim" but scumslipped. #128 "Oh, we can no-lynch? Cool then, nvm." The power to vote is sacred for town. ExO didn't know we could no-lynch because he's scum and didn't care unless scum was the wagon du jour and needed to defend. #129 Doesn't actually answer #102, just continues to attack Ray's case, now attacking Ray's #106. He's attacking #106 as a feint rather than responding to #102 which asks about things he said in #98, which are in turn about Ray's first post D1. This struck me really odd at the time because #106 > #102. Also, he didn't actually answer my questions. And + Show Spoiler + On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote: "Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post. buddy OMGUS. #131 On December 08 2016 08:05 ExO_ wrote: Anywho if we can no lynch though that changes everything. There'd be no pressure for scum to fake claim. Should absolutely no lynch, and have cop reveal at the very end of tomorrow night. ???? Wrong logic. His earlier argument was: if a scum under threat of lynch fakeclaims cop, we need time for cop counterclaim and discussion. Now: oh, we can no lynch. fine then. How does the option of no-lynch mean that we won't try to lynch scum? Seems a bit too confident of a nolynch. This might be scum!ExO going, "phew, now we just need to lobby for maximum caution and play for nolynch." Possibly even "thank goodness we'll probably not be pushed so hard, cuz defending is a bitch" #135 On December 08 2016 10:49 Tumblewood wrote: ok so I made a plan and I didn't think it through all the way. how can you, from that information, conclude that I was mafia trying to mislead you (and it's not like I was trying to steer you away from any plan — there was no plan at the time) and not town just trying to figure the game out? I don't even see the motive besides making myself look better. TW: "If I put on town glasses and try to scumread myself for the plan, the worst thing is I'm trying to make myself look better." Notice how both TW and previously ExO play down "trying to appear good" as a scum indicator. #140 On December 08 2016 11:11 Tumblewood wrote: Show nested quote + On December 07 2016 16:37 ExO_ wrote: Actually I just realized I misread TWs posts he never says rewarding town. I'm starting to think I'm going a bit crazy this post (+ sequence before it) feels very candid. it is hard as scum to fake viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint to reflect that. also it would be a lot of attention to detail to fake a mistake and react realistically. TW townreads ExO for his fuck up and recovery. Pre-emptively trying to spin it into a town tell. However, he does it wrongly. Please look at my discussion on why TW's townread is done wrongly. #145 TW points out null shit. Faking scumhunting. #153 On December 08 2016 15:27 ExO_ wrote: Show nested quote + On December 08 2016 15:24 Tumblewood wrote: gotta check cakepie's meta to see if being an asshat is his normal meta + Show Spoiler + inb4 this is also a subversive, manipulative trick designed intentionally to buddy NU and mislead town I don't know if you think you're spotting my mafia tricks or some shit but actually you're finding evidence where there is none. literally things that could go either way and you are construing them toward I am scum without hesitation I don't think cakepie is being an asshat. and I find the tone of your posts here to be odd. Saying they could go either way, instead of saying I'm town and you're clearly wrong I think says a lot about the position you are speaking from. Why doesn't ExO just call TW scummy? He's leaving the door open for badtown?TW to make omgus play. Scum plan: TW is going to go into tryhard mode, and they're playing for the nolynch, which is a safer play for scum than having to fakeclaim cop. #151~#153 could be scripted. ExO doesn't respond this quickly to anyone else. #159 Shit I thought I was safe and was firmly tunneltown. WTF better find out why. #161 On December 08 2016 19:32 ExO_ wrote: I largely agree with your reasoning on TW. But a no lynch is our safest play. I don't like the idea of the game being over if we're wrong, when we can wait for a day, get more information, and hopefully cop stays alive and really makes it easier. It's a gamble. If we lynch scum today we effectively buy an extra day. But if we guess wrong we lose. I'm not sure im comfortable lynching today, despite how bad TW looks as a whole " "largely agree" without any elaboration on what parts of the case he agreed/disagreed with. Excuse given when prodded later: I didn't have any major points I disagreed with. Mainly, my impression of TW was scummy and I wanted to say I agreed that he was scummy. I wasn't putting much effort in the game because I was tired after getting home from work. ExO fucks off for the rest of D1. TW goes into "I'm a bad townie with massive omgusitis" mode. Breaking here so I can post up and people (if you're here, give a shout) can start reading while I continue on the remainder. | ||
NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
For now, I've an essay to write that is due in 4 hours (same time as EoN), so if I can't make an appearance before EoN, this is my order of lynching in case I get killed: Ray TW ExO H1 cakepie I'll expand on that if I get the chance to. Meanwhile, I'd like these questions answered: @Ray -- Why do you think cakepie, H1, and ExO are town? @H1 -- What was that vote? @ExO -- Would you have voted/hammered TW if you were there at EoD? @TW -- fyi, I don't think your different treatment of me was an attempt at buddying anymore.But why did you 'defend' me against Ray? What were your motivations to do so? @cakepie -- What is your stance on Chairman Ray now? I have not seen your read of him evolve since the beginning of day 1. | ||
cakepie
985 Posts
#164 On December 09 2016 00:32 Tumblewood wrote: I have explained my ExO townread and it's a fucking good reason that you all should sleep me for. This is before where I point out why his townread logic is incorrect. On December 09 2016 00:32 Tumblewood wrote: if one more punk decides to vote me scum can and will hammer without warning. we are in MyLo, aka lose the game if you're wrong mode. are you really so confident in yourself because you wrote more words than me that you would risk this. for the love of god, don't be stupid Tumblewood's strategy is to try to fake the classic cornered omgus townie. But in #167 I point out he's not quite reacting correctly. To elaborate: "if one more punk": town!cake + town!onepunk + 2 scum. He towns ExO and NU, both of which have already shown hesitation and said they won't vote. Sidetracking for a bit: - #161 ExO preaches caution and hardsells nolynch. - #163 NU offered reads and is not confident enough to vote because he has too many scumreads and hasn't been able to narrow down. Pay attention to the difference here. Anyway, NU is declared away (school), ExO also left although it wasn't declared to us. TW obviously won't vote himself. So there is no quorum. #170 Sheeping NU, OMGUS onto Ray. #174 On December 09 2016 01:39 Tumblewood wrote: Nope.and for the record I have not been useless this game. I have figured out (probably) both the scum out of three people, By OMGUS and hardly any solidly reasoned casedefended myself against accusations, Poorly. Also, this is NAI, both alignments will defend themselvesand been the source of hmalf the game's posts. but hardly close to half the contentreally not sure how town could do any more on a day one where we aren't lynching. confident that no lynch will happen, yet overreacting in #164 (discussed above) <-- this is a disconnect.#175 On December 09 2016 01:40 Tumblewood wrote: Pseudo-noobiecardhow do I convince people I'm right in a town where no one plays like me or has played with me (except NU, once) #185 On December 09 2016 02:45 Tumblewood wrote: #196hm I'm trying to get out of the town tunnel mindset on NU so I'm trying to make a scum case on him but I actually have no dirt. is anyone scumreading him? I want some perspective here. On December 09 2016 03:55 Tumblewood wrote: yeah looking at the scum filter + having heard his history on that other site, there's no way NU is this convincing as scum Useless and fake. I'll sheep Ray here:+ Show Spoiler + On December 09 2016 05:43 Chairman Ray wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 05:26 Tumblewood wrote: On December 09 2016 04:50 Chairman Ray wrote: On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote: ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler + turns out no one likes being lynched You argue that being worried about perception can be either town or mafia, and it's incredibly subjective, that I agree with, which is why I pushed on him. However, you came to NU's defense before letting him speak for himself, which is a direct contradiction with your argument. Just a few posts ago you were asking for other people's scumreads on NU so you can gain some perspective. You don't actually seem that interested after all. I did want someone to help play devil's advocate and then saw yet another example of the trend where every single game he's scum he dies D1 because he's painfully obvious. and there is no contradiction in my argument. I wasn't defending him so much as calling out your shitty argument.. I don't buy this at all. You argued how NU acted could be either town or mafia, and it's subjective. But the way you are acting now, and have been throughout the game, you already have your mind made up that he's town. #204 On December 09 2016 04:24 Tumblewood wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote: On December 09 2016 02:48 cakepie wrote: he "largely agrees" with my TW case [...] There's zero progression / information for how he got there. Hm, maybe not completely zero, but there is this bit: On December 08 2016 15:27 ExO_ wrote: But still there is very little:I don't think cakepie is being an asshat. and I find the tone of your posts here to be odd. Saying they could go either way, instead of saying I'm town and you're clearly wrong I think says a lot about the position you are speaking from. #98 TW looks Town. <-- no elaboration! #107 "Why are you making me scumread TW?" <-- couched read?! #153 cakepie isn't an asshat and TW's tone is off #161 "largely agrees" with my TW case <-- no elaboration! I can get behind him not elaborating but there's definitely a progression there — I don't know what else you'd call what you outlined. his change of opinion gives me no trouble. Buddy defense. TW sees ExO going from town -> hesistant scum read -> ?scummy? -> yes, scum! progression. Later on ExO contradicts: On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote: If ExO had been swinging TW to and from between town and scum, it is definitely not reflected in the progression.I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game #206 This might look like he's defending NU, but he's also defending himself by proxy because Ray's distancing read is a NU+TW associative scumread. Will conveniently also help in his quest to pocket NU. #210 "mistakes are often innocent and seldom scumtells" No, mistakes need to be evaluated. NIGHTPOST #240Continues to townread NU (pocket) and ExO (scumbuddy) Time for scumbleweed to post cases and establish towncred! On December 09 2016 09:22 Tumblewood wrote: I will not omgus. I will not omgus. I will not omgus. I will not...I plan on writing posts like this for each player still alive besides myself, going in order the filters are listed. This isn't necessarily an indictment but an analysis of each player and a reasoned guess to their alignment, trying to start from square one and not cloud my judgement with previous bias. I will not go through every post, but I will use quotes liberally. On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote: Oh no, my omgusitis!I fear that already my mindset of avoiding bias is slipping. On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote: Again playing down mistakes rather than seeing that we should evaluate if they are scumslips.although he stops short of accepting things as mistakes. obviously the mistake wasn't even intentional? Cakepie overall spends several posts selling my mistakes,, contained in obviously low-effort posts (as in, spending little time typing them, not thinking about them) as intentional. Keen to assume mistakes as intentional is always scummy; town isn't looking to paint others as scum without being totally convinced themselves... and also having decent reasons. And again with the mistakes.Funny how I'm the one guy on the wrong side of the world who gets to take my time reading, thinking, and drafting... and he calls it low-effort? WTF? This contradicts himself only a few lines ago + Show Spoiler + On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote: I have to give him some credit, at least, for working his ass off for town. He's put an unlikely amount of effort into this game for someone just faking it. Accuses me of not having reasons. Hah. Chairman Ray posts with similarly poor logic, and cakepie responds [...] in the normal manner of explaining why it's wrong. He makes no attempt to show why Ray is scum, even though his mistake was no less 'egregious' than mine. Somehow TW equates his and ExO's "mistakes" on the same level as Ray's "poor logic". Fails to see the difference between hunting for scumslips vs correcting bad reasoning.Although he accuses me of trying to mislead NU rather than himself, cakepie plays to NU even more [...] by rhetorically asking if I was buddying NU all along. Consider also that he had expressed skepticism when Ray proposed that we were buddying. completely fails at reading. I argued that TW tried to pocket NU but not the other way around.In his case against me, scumbleweed is faking effort with fake cases using completely shit reasoning. On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote: Scum. Yeah, I don't like to speak in absolutes, but I fail to find any explanation for how cakepie is town. He reacts in different ways to the same tells from different players and above all speaks to why I am scum with evidence that should lead no reasonable person to his conclusions. Trying to find the townie in him, I felt like I was grasping for anything to explain it. If not scum then cakepie is one of the most misled townies I have ever seen, even ahead of Rels that one time. "I really don't want to omgus but I have to omgus. town?cakepie shitty shitty town!" Only one other player agrees I might be shitty town. On December 09 2016 10:59 Tumblewood wrote: I'll just cop out of this altogher and avoid having to OMGUS on Ray.This is all I will be able to manage tonight without killing myself. I should have gotten to Ray before, mostly to sort out my own thoughts on him. The case on ExO_ Ah, there it is again![...] The case for [...] mistakes [...] *bias creeping in help* Oh shit, I'm townreading him for defending me! Oh no, my reverse-omgusitis!Town. ExO has provided good analysis consistently and has hardly done anything to give me suspicion. One thing to watch out for, though, is a dropoff after D1 if it seems like he can coast through the game. Towning his scumbuddy. Good analysis, hahahaha! Only when fending off Ray's TW+NU case! "watch out for ... dropoff after D1" pointless point. D2 lylo, anyone seeming inactive is going to get shit. Why does TW make such a big deal of playing up the OMGUS? To the point that he's giving cheesy commentary when he does it? It's very contrived. Compare: 2015 shitty VT cakepie on track for D1 mislynch + Show Spoiler + On April 21 2015 04:31 cakepie wrote: Why not go scrutinize people who seem perfectly happy to stay inactive? Not to OMGUS, but it's starting to get kind of fishy how the case on me is almost lazy easy policy tunnel. On April 21 2015 09:59 cakepie wrote: OWS didn't seem terribly invested in the game early on, and he certainly tunnelled me hard. Not without cause, but certainly could have done more to pressure elsewhere. I've been trying really hard to resist OMGUS onto OWS Basically, scumplan is to make a big show of omgustown!TW. And this is where TW leaves the thread and ExO enters... #251 This is ExO posting in (fake?) stream-of-consciousness because in #186 I posit that it's one way I can see some of his behavior as town. Stream of consciousness posting can be used in "quick catch up" mode after being away, like in this case. But it comes across as most authentic when it's someone who is engaged in current discussion and posting responses with low latency. Just a gut feel. But I do think it'd be hilarious if it turns does out that scum!ExO was forced to act this way in response to my case. On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: Distancing.#164 TW hard town reading me --> Scum trying to buddy me because I'm town. Other players I think are town think I might be scum because I wanted cop to reveal (because I thought we had to lynch today). However they think I might be scum faking it. TW isn't even considering this possibilty. #164 #170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk defending buddy#173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here. low hanging fruit#180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives fluffy null#182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain uh, reasoning? Three players see it as buddying, so you might want to explain?#185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. "too scummy to be scum" card.When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum. was never apparent until now. There was very little visible progression of ExO reading TW previously.#186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me. Because scum!Exo can't tell the difference.#203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU buddyomgus#205 NSM24 (touhou2) was ExO not even understanding why he got mislynched D1. Dota2 ExO played civ6. =Þ#215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him inability to see town motivation because ExO is scum.#217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum. planted mistake#228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum. defend the omgustown!scumbuddy! omgus all the voters! fail to see town motivations of voters.#231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted? See how he doesn't just go back and edit the part about #217? 217 is a planted mistake and this post is a fake stream of consciousness. Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum. yeah, look at that fucking effort! TW totes town!CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum. OMGUS for good measure.#256 #257 TW attacks into cake and H1 ExO attacks into Ray and FoS NU for good measure, since TW pocket NU. On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote: I don't think I can agree TW is mafia. I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game Where is the back and forth? Not evident in thread. No progression. #259 Being scum, ExO is completely incapable of finding town motivations for the voters. #262Yup, ExO's assigned to Ray and NU. #264 On December 09 2016 19:52 cakepie wrote: Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. I'm witholding information that is useful to scum. I'm asking you for information that is not useful to scum. Difference! Let's say I accept you've been operating on stream-of-consciousness mode. Fine. The problem I'm having with that is that while you go down the list of posts and toss out whatever comes to mind, you're not stopping to elaborate, and you've also missed questions that were embedded in posts. I don't know if you missed them if you're just focused on posting your brief impressions, or if you're deliberately dodging or ignoring. That's what rubs me the wrong way. Or maybe there is actually stream of consciousness in some places, but scum!ExO subconsciously skips the questions that are difficult for scum and plucks only at the low hanging fruit. #265 On December 09 2016 20:00 ExO_ wrote: #98: I don't remember. It's what I thought skimming the thread at the time. I don't see why you are so concerned with that particular read considering all of the new information and posts we've had since then. I got a town impression of him, not based off some super analysis but based purely off how I felt at the time. This answer would be much better without the "I don't remember." part. #107 You are misconstruing what happened here. If I recall correctly in touhou mafia (assuming I haven't confused you with someone else) I thought you played well and your opening here reminded me of it. So when you started posting a scum case on TW, I looked at it and started to think that yeah TW looks scummy. But I was worried that my impression of your gameplay in touhou mafia was affecting my ability to assess if TW was scummy on my own. Thanks Calix!#161 I didn't have any major points I disagreed with. Mainly, my impression of TW was scummy and I wanted to say I agreed that he was scummy. I wasn't putting much effort in the game because I was tired after getting home from work. admits lazy sheep. also, that lazy sheep where he "largely agreed" with my case, but now no major points disagreed with. Hmm. How about minor points? I guess not.Why would you push so hard for a lynch on mylo, instead of waiting one more day? Its inherently anti-town, and incredibly high risk Scum!ExO fails to process cakepie's intent yet again!Why would the reasons I disagreed with your case on TW be super important? I find it odd that you'd care more about the reasons for disagreeing with you than the reasons why I would think TW is scum. Fails to understand that I take issue with the lazy sheep and lack of progression. Fails to understand that I'm looking at why he quickly goes to no-lynch mode. Recall my comparison of his nolynch vs NU's nolynch.#266Pls TW is such effort!omgus!cornered!town! #268 On December 09 2016 20:06 ExO_ wrote: Scum!ExO wouldn't understand.What information could you be withholding that is useful to scum? What kind of information could that possibly be? Everything I can think of would be better discussed in town, except if you are the cop. And this should be obvious but the only reason cops information shouldn't be public yet is because we want to get another night of information in before we have to lynch. | ||
cakepie
985 Posts
--- On the other hand, NU is town for freely discussing thoughts with me, re: my cases on TW and ExO, re: h1. Ray is town for scumhunting from the get-go. He was absent and not engaging for a good chunk of D1 but toward EoD1 and early N1 did a lot to rectify that. H1 is leantown for readily sharing new ideas with me that were on point and directly addressing gaps in my understanding. Lynch TW and ExO. Lynch them superduperhard. I'm a cop you idiot mafia. Doctor nightkilled N0. Solved on N1 without needing to rely on cop claims or checks. + Show Spoiler + in before I'm wrong, town loses and I get blamed | ||
cakepie
985 Posts
#262 On December 09 2016 19:44 ExO_ wrote: So let me ask you CR, assume for a second that TW is town, and NU is scum. Who would the 2nd scum be with NU? CR's NU read relies on association in TW+NU scum team. Asking him to town TW and find 2nd scum with NU is just silly. Possible poor imitation of me asking CR to town NU and find TW's scumbuddy in #127. | ||
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 10 2016 03:31 NeverUnlucky wrote: Sorry for going MIA for 24h, I was cuahgt up in my finals yesterday. I should be much more active during the weekend For now, I've an essay to write that is due in 4 hours (same time as EoN), so if I can't make an appearance before EoN, this is my order of lynching in case I get killed: Ray TW ExO H1 cakepie No. Stop. Don't OMGUS Ray. If you've been away due to finals, I don't think you've had a chance to properly catch up since your last post here. Make sure you properly look at Ray's EoD1 and N1. --- @H1 -- What was that vote? See what Ray said about it in response to my question. Read Ray's post and think very very carefully. If I am alive tomorrow I'll be able to help you understand it, otherwise please give Ray a fair chance to explain to you.--- @cakepie -- What is your stance on Chairman Ray now? I have not seen your read of him evolve since the beginning of day 1. My read did evolve, you missed it. I townleaned him early D1 because he was scumhunting in his own way. We discussed this at some point. re: "in his own way" = the logic that CR used in his D1 entry post that looks off to you (and TW+ExO) -- because you're recent to the site. I'm not going to claim I'm an old hand, or that I have good meta on CR. But when I was new here, CR hadn't gone off on hiatus yet (I even cohosted a game he played). And I can see his logic as hailing from that era. My read did evolve in that before he reappeared EoD1, I responded to TW: On December 09 2016 02:05 cakepie wrote: (I forgot to include to qualify my statement with: CR being away, not following up and pushing his reads)Show nested quote + On December 09 2016 01:40 Tumblewood wrote: how do I convince people I'm right in a town where no one plays like me or has played with me (except NU, once) You don't "convince people [you're] right". Town finds each other by finding things they agree on because they see something the same way, because they're coming from the same perspective. It's called consensus. For example, I don't fully agree on your ExO TR but I can agree with you that as we approach EoD1 Ray is starting to look strange and entering scum territory for being very one-track-minded on scumming two players together all of D1. Sorry for that omission. Honest mistake! *trollface* But Ray is pretty solid town for me now. Ray did tunnel TW+NU scumteam and was away. - But hey I tunneled too. There's a philosophy: find one scum. push as far as it'll go. - Can't really strongly scumread for "being away" if subsequent activity fixes that. | ||
cakepie
985 Posts
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