EPTOn December 08 2016 03:27 Hopeless1der wrote:
cakepie is it okay if I just sheep you today?
cakepie is it okay if I just sheep you today?
No.
[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot - Page 7
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cakepie
985 Posts
No. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
 k well I either want to lynch TW or no-lynch today. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On December 08 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote: Like wtf H1, at least try. Maybe we've exhausted the available material on TW, but tell me something about NU or ExO or CRay. ExO has maintained that the cop should claim. I dont particularly agree, I'd rather tempt fate on a no-lynch and have the cop end-of-night phase post their N0 check, with the possibility of getting a N1 check as well. Besides that, ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread, and I'm not sure where that falls on the scummy/stupid scale so I dont want to pursue a lynch there. I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion. I do not like NU's overly defensive tone following the daypost when CR accused TW/NU of hiding behind poorly reasoned math. + Show Spoiler [#86] + On December 07 2016 10:01 NeverUnlucky wrote: I find it opportunistic that you call me and tw out on our lack of assumptions now that the medic was shanked rather than when we were actually discussing it ie I doubt that you would be reproaching us this if it was a VT that flipped today. Also, I dislike that you are entering the day with two targets you'd like to see lynched, especially since pretty much nothing happened N0, so I don't understand how you're ready to see myself or tw lynched already. Also, I don't think your justification to scum-read either of us is worthy of calling us lynch targets. Especially the 2nd paragraph in the above spoiler, it reads to me as less about NU being one of the targets and more about CR having more than one target, when they're being accused with same reasoning. Why would CR be inclined to single someone out in this scenario? To me, there's no reason for it and NU's post comes off as contrived to me. As you said, most of the TW material has been covered so I'll skip over it. Also, I think you're town. My vote preferences are: 1-No-Lynch 2-TW 3-NU 4-ExO 5-CR 6-cake 7-me | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote: I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion. But would you agree that it doesn't quite pass muster for both scum NU+TW to come out and try to dictate plan to town? On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote: ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread Is this for #107 + #110 or is there something else that makes you say this? | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On December 08 2016 04:26 cakepie wrote: You've given me some insight into something that was of interest to me. Thanks. But would you agree that it doesn't quite pass muster for both scum NU+TW to come out and try to dictate plan to town? Is this for #107 + #110 or is there something else that makes you say this? Re: CR - I wouldn't dismiss the notion out of hand, but its not high on my gutcheck rating. Being able to come out on blue-planning is a really safe way for mafia to seem invested without actually doing anything. That is only compounded by the fact that our doc got shot first, rendering a huge portion of N0 reasoning useless for the purposes of planning. CR is at least trying to use those posts to get reads. Re: ExO - There are those two posts, and then there is him somehow thinking there are 50+ pages [#96. #97]. That might have been sarcasm? I'm not seeing a motive for him to do this as either faction other than straight up carelessness, its more of an annoyance than a scumread atm. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote: Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't. The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it. But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now. So just to summarize, these are my suspicions: - TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe - TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind" Summed up "Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 08 2016 04:41 Hopeless1der wrote: Re: CR - I wouldn't dismiss the notion out of hand, but its not high on my gutcheck rating. Being able to come out on blue-planning is a really safe way for mafia to seem invested without actually doing anything. That is only compounded by the fact that our doc got shot first, rendering a huge portion of N0 reasoning useless for the purposes of planning. CR is at least trying to use those posts to get reads. Re: ExO - There are those two posts, and then there is him somehow thinking there are 50+ pages [#96. #97]. That might have been sarcasm? I'm not seeing a motive for him to do this as either faction other than straight up carelessness, its more of an annoyance than a scumread atm. I literally misread 5 as 50, b/c every other TL mafia game I've played (mostly I've played large ones) has a bajillion pages and I saw the 5 and thought it was 50. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
 On December 07 2016 15:48 cakepie wrote: I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74. NU, can you explain your response to TW's plan? + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 10:49 NeverUnlucky wrote: No, TW, bad plan. Get the medic to claim D1. D1 - 3 c. town or 2 ctown, 1 mafia. N1 - 1 c.town dies D2 - 3 ctown, so 2 cmafia / 2 ctown, 1cmafia / 1 ctown, last cmafia GG in 2/3 scenarios. Your method is risking the cop to check the medic and thus losing in efficiency. My method is pro and should be sheeped =)))))) You still around? I don't mean explain plan or math or scenarios. I mean explain your reaction to TW's plan, what you thought TW was doing, and your intent -- what were you doing with #46. Were you droll, troll, or actually seriously asking if TW still around so you can keep talking plan math? First off, I think that TW's post was just him voicing what he thought was the optimal scenario for town. As you pointed out, his post was not a troll/joke post, he was legitimately putting forth his plan. I do not see anything malicious in it despite him neglecting the possibility of a blue role dying. My response to his post + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 10:49 NeverUnlucky wrote: No, TW, bad plan. Get the medic to claim D1. D1 - 3 c. town or 2 ctown, 1 mafia. N1 - 1 c.town dies D2 - 3 ctown, so 2 cmafia / 2 ctown, 1cmafia / 1 ctown, last cmafia GG in 2/3 scenarios. Your method is risking the cop to check the medic and thus losing in efficiency. My method is pro and should be sheeped =)))))) You still around? On December 06 2016 09:33 NeverUnlucky wrote: I agree that cop should claim at day start, and I also think that the medic should claim. NO VT EVER CC's. Force 1 on 1 with mafia or have up to 3 confirmed town if cop gets a green check who lives through the night. I asked if TW was still around to see if I could have a - non math-related - chat with him, which I ended up having with him the following day. In light of TW's possible buddying later N0, do you agree that his earlier behavior also starts looking more insidious? I don't really get what you mean here. I looked up the definition of insidious, and the two possible meanings of it were: seductive and having a gradual and cumulative effect. When I reread his filter with these two ideas in my mind, I could not understand what made you think that way (other than the posts for which I suspected he was buddying me): -Seductive: None of his N0 posts make me think that he's trying to please or look good -- + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 15:52 Tumblewood wrote: ugh I hope this isn't "hi I'm VT bye" because night doesn't mean we can't play. especially when you won't get killed for your reads because N0 On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote: pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. anyway even if the odds slightly favor us I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring On December 07 2016 00:09 Tumblewood wrote: it's not but for the rest of the game I would have been biased towards lynching you I quoted some of his posts, but honestly other than the potential buddying posts, all of his filter enters that category. -Having a gradual and cumulative effect : actually, I understand where you're coming from with "Gets all worked up N0 and early D1 about him giving a shit and others apparently not, trying way too hard to oversell his noise as activity before others even begin engaging", and I agree with that statement. #72, 76, 77, 84, 93, 94 are him associating giving a shit and/or being active with town and seeing as he self-categorised himself as giving a shit, it does look like he is trying to sell that he is town. This is especially concerning because he does not try to get others engaged in the thread. He only calls them out for it. | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
On December 08 2016 08:05 ExO_ wrote: Anywho if we can no lynch though that changes everything. There'd be no pressure for scum to fake claim. Should absolutely no lynch, and have cop reveal at the very end of tomorrow night. We can no lynch as long as nobody cumulates 4 votes today. I'm currently weighing in favor of this idea as I don't feel comfortable placing my vote on anybody just yet and I find that our N0 and D1 were not very productive. It also allows the cop to have an extra night to get a check of his choice if he isn't killed. | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote: TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming I did touch that topic actually : On December 06 2016 09:33 NeverUnlucky wrote: I agree that cop should claim at day start, and I also think that the medic should claim. NO VT EVER CC's. Force 1 on 1 with mafia or have up to 3 confirmed town if cop gets a green check who lives through the night. So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. I am confused here. A blue died last night which is not the scenario tw or I described N0. Can you clarify what the coincidence is? | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On December 07 2016 15:20 cakepie wrote: G'day folks. RIP Koshi. It's iml mylo, so I'm not exactly raring to go tying nooses. And it's early in the day yet. But scumhunting can't wait. You got to work with what you have. Tumblewood Definitely fishy. As Chairman Ray points out, TW talks plan, gets it all wrong. But what really sets the alarms off for me is his tone and progression. TW is definitely aware that state of the game = D1 mylo, with his opening post. + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 07:45 Tumblewood wrote: oh hey we start at night so I guess we're in Mylo already? And then there's his plan: + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 10:19 Tumblewood wrote: so... plan? cop checks N0 (get conftown or redcheck) cop claims D1 (two conftown). lynch if redcheck cop checks N1 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop reveal check D2, doc claims D2 (four conftown). lynch if redcheck cop checks N2 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop, probably dies reveal check D3 (five conftown). lynch if redcheck so throughout the game we can confirm up to five players as town if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1. other possibilities are confirm 4 town and 1 mafia or 3 town and 2 mafia by D3. I guess if cop or doc dies tonight we just play like normal Several mechanical things about the plan rub me the wrong way here:
His tone/progression is also problematic.
Hi ExO. I've been casually drafting since usually no one's around when I'm up. But since you're here, Imma dump what I have so far, and let's talk. re: your scumread on me ok so I made a plan and I didn't think it through all the way. how can you, from that information, conclude that I was mafia trying to mislead you (and it's not like I was trying to steer you away from any plan — there was no plan at the time) and not town just trying to figure the game out? I don't even see the motive besides making myself look better. and the Koshi thing: in a world where TW says something that would totally make sense from a townie who mistyped, one man sets out to explain how it was an intentional, subversive scum move. | ||
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote: This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind" Summed up "Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post. I don't think you represented my case fairly. I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it? | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
On December 08 2016 02:50 cakepie wrote: You misread / misunderstood / misremember (misrepresent?) I don't see him changing his mind about Koshi being town. He changed his mind about why Koshi is town for him -- but not in response to your questioning (#74) since his answers were both after. (#77,#78) No, I did not misread/misrep/misinterpreted/misunderstood/misremember (lol). My point was that he backed down on Koshi acting town when I questioned him. He went from Koshi, him, me are respected and acting town to Koshi is town for the respect kill thing once I asked him to explain how all of us were acting town. That’s the suspicious part about his read progression. I did flag his behavior over the course that sequence of posts, though. #101: In any case, those posts scream circlejerk to me. Why is he making such a hardsell of himself as townie based on just noisy activity on N0, without being under fire? Why such rush to form towncircle? In hindsight, did TW prepare to paint himself green with Koshi's blood? Good questions. To follow up on your last one, TW said that me, Koshi, and him were the « respected town ». I find it quite suspect that one of the Three Musketeers was killed while he is trying to be chummy to the other. Already addressed. I see where he's coming from, I see why he makes a double case on the two of you, I understand his arguments. But I have difficulty buying into his case because it doesn't quite pass the test of "now why on earth would the scumteam do this". I can't fault him for seeing your response as distancing, since #92 has you raising buddying suspicions while still reading TW "more town than maf". And you didn't raise suspicions of TW sooner, but only when asked -- you had a whole hour in which to do it before he asked. On the other hand, coming into the thread you're pretty much guaranteed to be focused on Ray's D1 entry for a bit since he fingers you. And it's not exactly like you had a very strong townread on TW, it was more of a purely activity-based townlean on TW given no one else seemed to be playing at the time. So his concern is not unjustified, but it might be a bit of a stretch to label #92 as distancing. Fair enough. What is your overall evaluation of Ray though? This reads like a lean-town’ish read. Is that what it is? Ugh. Hope you can stay up late a bit and I'll maybe be up before you go beddybye. Meanwhile you owe me an answer for #104. Also more thorough re-eval on TW if you could, please, in light of new insights. Take a look at ExO for me especially #112 just in case I've incorrectly tunneled him town. And + Show Spoiler + On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote: If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. On December 07 2016 00:39 NeverUnlucky wrote: What do you think of [...] cakepie entering with math and hopeless checking in to check out? I’m sorry, but these two questions will have to wait for another time (perhaps later tonight if I’m productive). I spent more time than I thought I would just commenting and answering posts on page 6 and still have like 6 flagged posts I’d like to discuss, and I need to get some RL stuff done for tomorrow. What is your timezone for future reference? And, yes, I think debating whether the odds of scenario x are 45% or 59% is pointless and a waste of time. That was my face when i read through your argument with TW :+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.giphy.com/27EhcDHnlkw1O.gif) | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On December 08 2016 10:19 NeverUnlucky wrote: I did touch that topic actually : I am confused here. A blue died last night which is not the scenario tw or I described N0. Can you clarify what the coincidence is? My problem was that you and TW totally flushed out the scenario where both medic and cop are alive and go uncountered, and everything else is handy dandy, while leaving a very brief mention or ignoring entirely all other scenarios. Whether or not Koshi flipped blue is not important given that mafia didn't know what he was. Given that it was Koshi dying, I would give it a higher chance that the mafia weren't trying to bluesnipe at all. | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
On December 08 2016 10:49 Chairman Ray wrote: I don't think you represented my case fairly. I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it? They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it. Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW. So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie? | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On December 07 2016 16:37 ExO_ wrote: Actually I just realized I misread TWs posts he never says rewarding town. I'm starting to think I'm going a bit crazy this post (+ sequence before it) feels very candid. it is hard as scum to fake viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint to reflect that. also it would be a lot of attention to detail to fake a mistake and react realistically. | ||
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