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G'day folks. RIP Koshi.
It's iml mylo, so I'm not exactly raring to go tying nooses. And it's early in the day yet. But scumhunting can't wait. You got to work with what you have.
Tumblewood
Definitely fishy. As Chairman Ray points out, TW talks plan, gets it all wrong.
But what really sets the alarms off for me is his tone and progression.
TW is definitely aware that state of the game = D1 mylo, with his opening post.
+ Show Spoiler +On December 06 2016 07:45 Tumblewood wrote:
oh hey we start at night
so I guess we're in Mylo already?
And then there's his plan:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 06 2016 10:19 Tumblewood wrote:
so... plan?
cop checks N0 (get conftown or redcheck)
cop claims D1 (two conftown). lynch if redcheck
cop checks N1 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop
reveal check D2, doc claims D2 (four conftown). lynch if redcheck
cop checks N2 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop, probably dies
reveal check D3 (five conftown). lynch if redcheck
so throughout the game we can confirm up to five players as town if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1. other possibilities are confirm 4 town and 1 mafia or 3 town and 2 mafia by D3.
I guess if cop or doc dies tonight we just play like normal
Several mechanical things about the plan rub me the wrong way here:- sells copchecks as conftown without deadcopflip
- sells high numbers of conftown, when
in all likelihood absolutely half of them are going to be dead conftown
- "D3 (five conftown)" sounds amazing, but is complete false advertising. Relies on (unreasonably?) optimistic view that we manage to lynch a (claimed) redcheck from (claimed) cop. Failing that, we've already lost: D3 is a 2-2 voterace if no-lynch on first two days.
Going from "D1 mylo" to "just get to D3 and we're set!" is just... I'm incredulous. I mean, even if you're just blindly enumerating the possibilities, going from N0 to D1, N1, etc... mylo isn't something that just slips your mind -- you KNOW you have TWO days to make ONE correct lynch. That's not a given. I'm not sure even an incredibly negligent townie would so flippantly irresponsible as to practically take it for granted.
His tone/progression is also problematic.- The plan was presented seriously, if maybe a bit tentatively. ("so... plan?"). I detect no joke, no troll, no facetiousness.
- The plan is clear followup from NU's #43 starting to talking about whether blues should claim / VTs should not fakeclaim.
NU's post (and meta) suggests he's a player who could be enticed with plans revolving around setup mechanics, so #45 could be working that angle
- When plan is attacked for bad math, #52 still bad math -- conscientious townie would have triple checked! -- casually sells bad math ("odds slightly favor us") while distancing from the plan at the same time ("I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring").
- So eager to circlejerk with NU and Koshi, except + Show Spoiler [tinfoil] +
- Gets all worked up N0 and early D1 about him giving a shit and others apparently not, trying way too hard to oversell his noise as activity before others even begin engaging
Hi ExO. I've been casually drafting since usually no one's around when I'm up.
But since you're here, Imma dump what I have so far, and let's talk.
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On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote:
I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.
But do you agree that (conscientious) town would not carelessly only post in best case scenarios?
Because that's the part that makes all the plan fluff at least anti-town, if not immediately obv scum.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
Can you elaborate? I agree with NU's buddy-suspicion and see it possibly going further back to trying to put focus on plans. Help me see why it's not a buddy, and moreso not straight up painting them all green together with Koshi.
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I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74.
NU, can you explain your response to TW's plan?
+ Show Spoiler +On December 06 2016 10:49 NeverUnlucky wrote:
No, TW, bad plan.
Get the medic to claim D1.
D1 - 3 c. town or 2 ctown, 1 mafia.
N1 - 1 c.town dies
D2 - 3 ctown, so 2 cmafia / 2 ctown, 1cmafia / 1 ctown, last cmafia
GG in 2/3 scenarios.
Your method is risking the cop to check the medic and thus losing in efficiency. My method is pro and should be sheeped =))))))
You still around?
I don't mean explain plan or math or scenarios. I mean explain your reaction to TW's plan, what you thought TW was doing, and your intent -- what were you doing with #46. Were you droll, troll, or actually seriously asking if TW still around so you can keep talking plan math? In light of TW's possible buddying later N0, do you agree that his earlier behavior also starts looking more insidious?
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not gone playing PoE. give me a bit and ill look at this stuff
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On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote:
I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
Ray looks sketchy to me.
TW looks Town.
Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't.
The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it.
But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now.
So just to summarize, these are my suspicions:
- TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe
- TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming
So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence.
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Just sat down and actually read TW's plan before, I kinda didn't pay much attention to it at first. It's actually dogshit assuming cop and doc are going to make it through to d2 with everythink hunky dory, so much to the point that I have a hard time thinking he meant it to be taken seriously.
NU says (I had a hell of a time trying to copy/paste this quote so I'm just copy pasting the direct portion):
"His posts don't seem like he's trying to appear good rather like he's saying what he thinks."
And I think this is a hella convoluted thing to say. Saying what you think isn't necessarily a town indicator, and conversely trying to appear good isn't soley a scum indicator.
I don't have a good reason for this though, but twice he's said he likes to "reward town for giving a shit".
[+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 01:24 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 00:46 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:39 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 07 2016 00:36 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 07 2016 00:28 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:26 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 07 2016 00:24 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:17 NeverUnlucky wrote:Yo, TW, you up for a chat with me? I've one spare hour  I've got half of one but sure Noice. Do you think you're a good cop check for tonight? no because I think I'm one of the more likely players to die tonight That's the generic answer. Why do you think so? Have you ever been NKed before? Judging from HM3 idk why you would think you're in danger of being killed, lol. If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. This game is pretty slow so far. because the NK is always between me you and Koshi. the other players aren't 'respected'and aren't acting townie either Oh wow, so much honor for me. c: What do you think of other players' entries, specifically cakepie entering with math and hopeless checking in to check out? And Koshi, what happened to the "This town isn't going to be lazy" shtick you had last game? their entrances are not exciting so idc as for you, me, koshi I like to reward give-a-shitness ebwop
+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 14:26 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 11:14 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 07 2016 08:55 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote:
I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. worst case scenario: blue role dies ways to prevent it: doc save ask politely none glad we figured that one out and I think I did say "if things don't go according to plan we play mafia as normal" Point taken. You mentioned that you are leaning town on NeverUnlucky (specifically you said not neutral). What's your reasoning for that read? it's my way of trying to get people to be active. I reward people for trying if town is dead.
the way he's speaking about "rewarding town" instead of rewarding a player is really fucking off. You reward a player with town cred, you don't "reward town" for speaking.
Best lead I have so far. But I'm skeptical. What if I'm just seeing your read and starting to suspect him because of that instead of actual scum slipping. hm :/
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On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote:
I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
Ray looks sketchy to me.
TW looks Town.
I have the opposite impression of NU's explanation. All I did was ask the two of them what their townreads were. NU reacted by distancing himself.
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I kinda switched train of thoughts in the middle of the above post without properly marking it.
"I don't have a good reason for this though, but twice he's said he likes to "reward town for giving a shit". I've switched to talking about TW again
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Actually I just realized I misread TWs posts he never says rewarding town. I'm starting to think I'm going a bit crazy
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On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote:
Just sat down and actually read TW's plan before, I kinda didn't pay much attention to it at first. It's actually dogshit assuming cop and doc are going to make it through to d2 with everythink hunky dory, so much to the point that I have a hard time thinking he meant it to be taken seriously.
This is snark.
This might be half in jest
This exhaustively enumerates N0 thru up to D3 and lists what he sees as all three possible scenarios at D3.
That's too much effort for simply joking or trolling.
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I was typing a post out and deleted it because I've come to the conclusion we're in a really shitty spot. But the conclusion I've come to is:
Cop should claim ASAP
This is the situation we are in:
mislynch and lose. In an ideal world, cop doesn't claim today and we move on to night, coming back the next day with cop claiming and giving information. However if Scum, or the Cop is on the chopping block today, they will almost certainly claim/fake claim cop. If nobody is claiming cop at EoD it almost certainly means we are lynching VT.
Our focus has to be getting through TODAY. We don't have the luxury of being able to reliably lynch 2 people. Our best bet of figuring out who is telling the truth, and who is lying is to get the discussion about it happening now. If nobody Counter Claims Cop, we're fine. If 2 people do claim cop, we want as much discussion time about it as possible to work it out.
This mean cop is essentially going to die at night, and that kinda sucks. But I think its our best bet to actually get out of day 1. I can't see scum just laying down and dying if they are on the chopping block so the Claim/Counter Claim scenario happens in our best case scenario. We should get it going NOW instead of later.
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I have work in 5ish hours and won't be back online for roughly 10-11 hours from now. Cop HAS to claim ASAP.
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+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 20:40 ExO_ wrote:
I was typing a post out and deleted it because I've come to the conclusion we're in a really shitty spot. But the conclusion I've come to is:
Cop should claim ASAP
This is the situation we are in:
mislynch and lose. In an ideal world, cop doesn't claim today and we move on to night, coming back the next day with cop claiming and giving information. However if Scum, or the Cop is on the chopping block today, they will almost certainly claim/fake claim cop. If nobody is claiming cop at EoD it almost certainly means we are lynching VT.
Our focus has to be getting through TODAY. We don't have the luxury of being able to reliably lynch 2 people. Our best bet of figuring out who is telling the truth, and who is lying is to get the discussion about it happening now. If nobody Counter Claims Cop, we're fine. If 2 people do claim cop, we want as much discussion time about it as possible to work it out.
This mean cop is essentially going to die at night, and that kinda sucks. But I think its our best bet to actually get out of day 1. I can't see scum just laying down and dying if they are on the chopping block so the Claim/Counter Claim scenario happens in our best case scenario. We should get it going NOW instead of later.
This post reads townie as fuck to me and I am just shy of throwing my full support behind this reasoning. The one thing that has me hesitant here is that I'm not sure we're at the point where we're definitely lynching today. No lynch / no consensus is still a clear possibility with 4/6 votes needed for IML.
But we're definitely in a very shitty place and I think the other concern is that N1 is 25% dead cop at random, or may even be a straight up bluesnipe -- so the cop may not have the luxury of time here.
I also believe I might have an inkling of what you typed out and deleted. Maybe we're thinking the same thing that we don't want to speak about yet.
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ExO what's your take on C-Ray? You said he looked sketchy earlier. Is it his wording ("I'd lynch ..." being quick to lynch at mylo) or the logic that you disagreed with or is there something else?
I was originally rather uncomfortable with how C-Ray was just tarring both TW and NU with the same brush without evaluating between the two, but #106 explained that to some extent for me, insofar that at least I see he's coming from the angle where they have to be scum together. I'm not completely convinced that both scum would come out together and try to dictate badplan to town, though, something doesn't quite click there when I try to find the scum motivation -- it seems unnecessarily YOLO when all it takes for scum to win is one mislynch.
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Around for another couple hours give or take, mostly IAW getting my youtube fix, will pop in sporadic to F5.
NA hurry and wake up already, so I can actually talk to you and not be forced to just leave messages.
Curse scum for killing the only EU.
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Going from "D1 mylo" to "just get to D3 and we're set!" is just... I'm incredulous. I mean, even if you're just blindly enumerating the possibilities, going from N0 to D1, N1, etc... mylo isn't something that just slips your mind -- you KNOW you have TWO days to make ONE correct lynch. That's not a given. I'm not sure even an incredibly negligent townie would so flippantly irresponsible as to practically take it for granted.
I like this point on TW. You don’t simply go from acknowledging that d1 is mylo to being really optimistic of making it to day 3.
Also, I may be digging too deep here, but TW’s progression on Koshi re: On December 07 2016 00:36 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 07 2016 00:28 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:26 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 07 2016 00:24 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:17 NeverUnlucky wrote:Yo, TW, you up for a chat with me? I've one spare hour I've got half of one but sure Noice. Do you think you're a good cop check for tonight? no because I think I'm one of the more likely players to die tonight That's the generic answer. Why do you think so? Have you ever been NKed before? Judging from HM3 idk why you would think you're in danger of being killed, lol. If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. This game is pretty slow so far. because the NK is always between me you and Koshi. the other players aren't 'respected'and aren't acting townie either to On December 07 2016 01:37 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 01:24 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:46 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:39 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 07 2016 00:36 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 07 2016 00:28 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:26 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 07 2016 00:24 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:17 NeverUnlucky wrote:Yo, TW, you up for a chat with me? I've one spare hour I've got half of one but sure Noice. Do you think you're a good cop check for tonight? no because I think I'm one of the more likely players to die tonight That's the generic answer. Why do you think so? Have you ever been NKed before? Judging from HM3 idk why you would think you're in danger of being killed, lol. If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. This game is pretty slow so far. because the NK is always between me you and Koshi. the other players aren't 'respected'and aren't acting townie either Oh wow, so much honor for me. c: What do you think of other players' entries, specifically cakepie entering with math and hopeless checking in to check out? And Koshi, what happened to the "This town isn't going to be lazy" shtick you had last game? their entrances are not exciting so idc as for you, me, koshi I like to reward give-a-shitness ebwop actually for Koshi it's the whole 'respect kill' thing. didn't mean to lump him in with us after I asked him how he, I and Koshi we were acting townie. Ie he backed down on his statement of Koshi acting town when I questioned him.
I have some other comments/responses I’d like to make but my course is starting atm. I’ll share those when I’m home in about 8 hours.
Meanwhile, cakepie, what are your thoughts on Ray’s follow up posts regarding his question to me and TW and his explanation of his first d1 post?
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"Also, I may be digging too deep here, but TW’s progression on Koshi is suspicious [...]"
ebwop
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On December 08 2016 01:11 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Also, I may be digging too deep here, but TW’s progression on Koshi
[...]
he backed down on his statement of Koshi acting town when I questioned him. #72 TW states NK between TW, NU, Koshi. #74 NU asks TW why NU, TU, and Koshi are town #77 TW answers that NU, TW, Koshi town due to give-a-shitness #78 13 min later TW changes his mind, decides Koshi town for "the whole 'respect kill' thing" and had not intended to "lump him in with [NU+TW]" [for give-a-shitness]. You misread / misunderstood / misremember (misrepresent?)
I don't see him changing his mind about Koshi being town. He changed his mind about why Koshi is town for him -- but not in response to your questioning (#74) since his answers were both after. (#77,#78)
I did flag his behavior over the course that sequence of posts, though. #101:
In any case, those posts scream circlejerk to me. Why is he making such a hardsell of himself as townie based on just noisy activity on N0, without being under fire? Why such rush to form towncircle?
In hindsight, did TW prepare to paint himself green with Koshi's blood?
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On December 08 2016 01:11 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Meanwhile, cakepie, what are your thoughts on Ray’s follow up posts regarding his question to me and TW and his explanation of his first d1 post?
Already addressed.
On December 07 2016 22:02 cakepie wrote:I was originally rather uncomfortable with how C-Ray was just tarring both TW and NU with the same brush without evaluating between the two, but #106 explained that to some extent for me, insofar that at least I see he's coming from the angle where they have to be scum together. I'm not completely convinced that both scum would come out together and try to dictate badplan to town, though, something doesn't quite click there when I try to find the scum motivation -- it seems unnecessarily YOLO when all it takes for scum to win is one mislynch.
I see where he's coming from, I see why he makes a double case on the two of you, I understand his arguments. But I have difficulty buying into his case because it doesn't quite pass the test of "now why on earth would the scumteam do this".
I can't fault him for seeing your response as distancing, since #92 has you raising buddying suspicions while still reading TW "more town than maf". And you didn't raise suspicions of TW sooner, but only when asked -- you had a whole hour in which to do it before he asked. On the other hand, coming into the thread you're pretty much guaranteed to be focused on Ray's D1 entry for a bit since he fingers you. And it's not exactly like you had a very strong townread on TW, it was more of a purely activity-based townlean on TW given no one else seemed to be playing at the time. So his concern is not unjustified, but it might be a bit of a stretch to label #92 as distancing.
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I have some other comments/responses I’d like to make but my course is starting atm. I’ll share those when I’m home in about 8 hours.
Ugh. Hope you can stay up late a bit and I'll maybe be up before you go beddybye.
Meanwhile you owe me an answer for #104. Also more thorough re-eval on TW if you could, please, in light of new insights.
Take a look at ExO for me especially #112 just in case I've incorrectly tunneled him town.
And + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote:
If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. On December 07 2016 00:39 NeverUnlucky wrote:
What do you think of [...] cakepie entering with math and hopeless checking in to check out?
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cakepie is it okay if I just sheep you today?
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EPT
