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[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot - Page 9

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
December 08 2016 10:32 GMT
#161
I largely agree with your reasoning on TW. But a no lynch is our safest play. I don't like the idea of the game being over if we're wrong, when we can wait for a day, get more information, and hopefully cop stays alive and really makes it easier.

It's a gamble. If we lynch scum today we effectively buy an extra day. But if we guess wrong we lose. I'm not sure im comfortable lynching today, despite how bad TW looks as a whole
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
December 08 2016 11:39 GMT
#162
On December 08 2016 18:52 ExO_ wrote:
I'm asking you to explain why you stopped town tunneling me. Just announcing it serves no purpose for town. It doesn't help us in any way. What town motivation do you have for just announcing it without explaining

Announcing it serves the purpose that people don't start acting all surprised and worked up when they perceive me 'suddenly' get all up in your face. Cuz, y'know, some folks can't spot hints or read between the lines. Gotta spell it all out.

Not explaining it now has a town motivation of denying information to scum. I don't see a need to explain everything now and give scum time to ponder over it. Town doesn't need my full explanation today (game D1, not real time), but will have it by tomorrow (that is to say, D2.) when it matters.

---

On December 08 2016 19:32 ExO_ wrote:
I largely agree with your reasoning on TW. But a no lynch is our safest play. I don't like the idea of the game being over if we're wrong, when we can wait for a day, get more information, and hopefully cop stays alive and really makes it easier.

It's a gamble. If we lynch scum today we effectively buy an extra day. But if we guess wrong we lose. I'm not sure im comfortable lynching today, despite how bad TW looks as a whole

You do you. I'm pretty much done with TW for now unless we get some earth-shattering revelation. Lynch him today failing which continue lynching him tomorrow.

You "largely agree with [my] reasoning", so what part do you not agree with? Besides the bit about the gamble.

---

Anyhow, we don't have time to muck about. Can't afford to wait for one scum to flip before looking for others.
Should be obvious that I'm looking at you next ExO; still in the midst of diving your filter atm.
Gotta take a break for dinner and brief relax but when I get back, watch out!
NeverUnlucky
Profile Joined August 2016
Canada1622 Posts
December 08 2016 14:25 GMT
#163
I'm leaving for school soon, I'll be back in aout 3 hours and respond to cakepie and hopefully make the comments I wanted to make.

My reads right now are this:

cakepie - strong town-lean based on content, and #127 was a town post
Chairman Ray - scum-lean: his whole filter is him making a big deal out of the tw and my plans and churning it. He makes no comment on cakepie, ExO, H1 at all, and his comments on tw and I are limited to that aspect he keeps bringing back.
ExO - weak scum-lean - posts are not impactful, and I disagree with cakepie on the post he said read town. In that post, he stated the obvious that town is in a bad spot and talked mechanics about why cop should claim, and that is his biggest post atm which is worrysome. However, I liked 129 and 153.
TW - lean-scum: He has some later posts I haven't commented on that make me think he is befriending me, he is playing reactively rather than proactively, and he isn't sharing his thoughts on other players other than stating if they are active or not. I'm not entirely convinced by cakepie's case on him though.
H1 - Null: Haven't read that guy yet.

I've more scum-reads than town-reads, and that's why I am not confident in placing my vote today.
"The more I look at it, the more convinced I am that NU bussed himself intentionally." -darthfoley
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
December 08 2016 15:32 GMT
#164
@cakepie: I don't know what era of TL you come from, but in this one you don't have to write a wall of text to be right. I patently refuse to write an elaborate case, because I don't or want to or have the time to give some highly explained reasons why you're scum or bad.
I have explained my ExO townread and it's a fucking good reason that you all should sleep me for.
doing the math I multiplied five-sevenths by five-sixths, because I forgot that scum won't kill themselves.
and if one more punk decides to vote me scum can and will hammer without warning. we are in MyLo, aka lose the game if you're wrong mode. are you really so confident in yourself because you wrote more words than me that you would risk this. for the love of god, don't be stupid
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
December 08 2016 15:35 GMT
#165
I'm in a game filled with nimrods
I want Koshi back
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
December 08 2016 15:46 GMT
#166
speaking of Koshi, cakepie's performance in this game really reminds me of Koshi in R1H mafia.tunneled on me all game with a bad but extensively written case and refused to back down, and also won. Koshi was mafia that game btw
good times for all
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
December 08 2016 16:13 GMT
#167
Well hello.

I'm not right because I wrote a WoT. It's because you've been useless and + Show Spoiler +
I don't or want to or have the time to give some highly explained reasons
continue to insist on being useless. You don't have to write a WoT to be useful either.

doing the math I multiplied five-sevenths by five-sixths, because I forgot that scum won't kill themselves.

There's other things you forgot or got wrong, but this at least settles for me where 25 and 42 came from and establishes for me never to listen to you regarding probabilities because you're terrible at it.

On December 09 2016 00:32 Tumblewood wrote:
and if one more punk decides to vote me scum can and will hammer without warning. we are in MyLo, aka lose the game if you're wrong mode. are you really so confident in yourself because you wrote more words than me that you would risk this. for the love of god, don't be stupid

Partially correct reaction. You're pleading for town?cakepie to stop being stupid and worried that one fool plus two scum will make 4. I can't find that one fool, though.
But you know what, I'll upgrade you to correct on account of panic and such.

Now that I have your attention, try being a bit more useful and I'll reevaluate you on your contribution.
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
December 08 2016 16:14 GMT
#168
On December 09 2016 00:46 Tumblewood wrote:
speaking of Koshi, cakepie's performance in this game really reminds me of Koshi in R1H mafia.tunneled on me all game with a bad but extensively written case and refused to back down, and also won. Koshi was mafia that game btw


You're trying to apply Koshi meta on me. That's ... disingenuous.
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
December 08 2016 16:15 GMT
#169
Anyhow, dinner and relax turned into protracted family time but I'm back working on that ExO angle.
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
December 08 2016 16:24 GMT
#170
just looked at ray's filter
getting some red flags from him because
a) he only focuses on me and NU
b) he posts as if it is a given that NU and I are scum, even from his third or fourth post of the game
there's a whole game out there, and ray is content to ignore it. maybe normal with someone heavily tunneled, but it's been that way all game.
ray what do you think of 1der, ExO, and cakepie?
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
December 08 2016 16:27 GMT
#171
On December 09 2016 01:14 cakepie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 00:46 Tumblewood wrote:
speaking of Koshi, cakepie's performance in this game really reminds me of Koshi in R1H mafia.tunneled on me all game with a bad but extensively written case and refused to back down, and also won. Koshi was mafia that game btw


You're trying to apply Koshi meta on me. That's ... disingenuous.

fair point, except the part where it's disingenuous.
good times for all
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
December 08 2016 16:28 GMT
#172
On December 09 2016 01:13 cakepie wrote:
There's other things you forgot or got wrong, but this at least settles for me where 25 and 42 came from and establishes for me never to listen to you regarding probabilities because you're terrible at it.

nvm all error accounted for.
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
December 08 2016 16:29 GMT
#173
On December 09 2016 01:27 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 01:14 cakepie wrote:
On December 09 2016 00:46 Tumblewood wrote:
speaking of Koshi, cakepie's performance in this game really reminds me of Koshi in R1H mafia.tunneled on me all game with a bad but extensively written case and refused to back down, and also won. Koshi was mafia that game btw


You're trying to apply Koshi meta on me. That's ... disingenuous.

fair point, except the part where it's disingenuous.

you're taking one persons meta and applying it to another person. Thats fucking ludicrous. I'm <-> this close to just putting a vote on you to see if scum mylo victory, but I wont.

##vote: No Lynch

My previous list stands.
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
December 08 2016 16:39 GMT
#174
and for the record I have not been useless this game. I have figured out (probably) both the scum out of three people, defended myself against accusations, and been the source of hmalf the game's posts. really not sure how town could do any more on a day one where we aren't lynching.
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
December 08 2016 16:40 GMT
#175
actually there's one more thing
how do I convince people I'm right in a town where no one plays like me or has played with me (except NU, once)
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
December 08 2016 16:46 GMT
#176
all scumhunting is anyway is taking someone's posting, comparing it to their meta, and comparing it to the "general meta" of how scum overall tend to act. I don't think it's disingenuous to say "the last time I saw someone act like this, they were scum". that's a pretty normal thought process to me
good times for all
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
December 08 2016 16:51 GMT
#177
On December 09 2016 01:27 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 01:14 cakepie wrote:
You're trying to apply Koshi meta on me. That's ... disingenuous.

fair point, except the part where it's disingenuous.

Right, I'm suppose to give you a fair chance here so maybe "disingenuous" isn't the word I'm looking for.
But yeah #166 still doesn't earn you any points.

#170 is a start. I've tried to engage Ray without much luck though. He didn't take me up on "NU+TW are not both scum". Not sure how much better you'd fare.


On December 09 2016 01:39 Tumblewood wrote:
I have figured out (probably) both the scum out of three people

wow, do tell. (Sorry bud, it ain't me)
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
December 08 2016 17:02 GMT
#178
well I'm never going to convince you that you're scum. but understand that I am doing the best job I can finding scum using logic I consider to be good.
good times for all
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
December 08 2016 17:05 GMT
#179
On December 09 2016 01:40 Tumblewood wrote:
how do I convince people I'm right in a town where no one plays like me or has played with me (except NU, once)

You don't "convince people [you're] right". Town finds each other by finding things they agree on because they see something the same way, because they're coming from the same perspective. It's called consensus. For example, I don't fully agree on your ExO TR but I can agree with you that as we approach EoD1 Ray is starting to look strange and entering scum territory for being very one-track-minded on scumming two players together all of D1.
NeverUnlucky
Profile Joined August 2016
Canada1622 Posts
December 08 2016 17:12 GMT
#180
On December 09 2016 01:46 Tumblewood wrote:
all scumhunting is anyway is taking someone's posting, comparing it to their meta, and comparing it to the "general meta" of how scum overall tend to act. I don't think it's disingenuous to say "the last time I saw someone act like this, they were scum". that's a pretty normal thought process to me

I agree with TW here.

cakepie, I think you're giving TW too much credit for 170 + Show Spoiler +
On December 09 2016 01:24 Tumblewood wrote:
just looked at ray's filter
getting some red flags from him because
a) he only focuses on me and NU
b) he posts as if it is a given that NU and I are scum, even from his third or fourth post of the game
there's a whole game out there, and ray is content to ignore it. maybe normal with someone heavily tunneled, but it's been that way all game.
ray what do you think of 1der, ExO, and cakepie?

seeing as he blatantly sheeped my read on Ray+ Show Spoiler +
On December 08 2016 23:25 NeverUnlucky wrote:
I'm leaving for school soon, I'll be back in aout 3 hours and respond to cakepie and hopefully make the comments I wanted to make.

My reads right now are this:

cakepie - strong town-lean based on content, and #127 was a town post
Chairman Ray - scum-lean: his whole filter is him making a big deal out of the tw and my plans and churning it. He makes no comment on cakepie, ExO, H1 at all, and his comments on tw and I are limited to that aspect he keeps bringing back.
ExO - weak scum-lean - posts are not impactful, and I disagree with cakepie on the post he said read town. In that post, he stated the obvious that town is in a bad spot and talked mechanics about why cop should claim, and that is his biggest post atm which is worrysome. However, I liked 129 and 153.
TW - lean-scum: He has some later posts I haven't commented on that make me think he is befriending me, he is playing reactively rather than proactively, and he isn't sharing his thoughts on other players other than stating if they are active or not. I'm not entirely convinced by cakepie's case on him though.
H1 - Null: Haven't read that guy yet.

I've more scum-reads than town-reads, and that's why I am not confident in placing my vote today.
and legit asked the same question I asked Ray yesterday + Show Spoiler +
On December 08 2016 11:00 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2016 10:49 Chairman Ray wrote:
On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote:
On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote:
On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote:
I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.

I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.

Ray looks sketchy to me.

TW looks Town.


Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't.

The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it.

But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now.

So just to summarize, these are my suspicions:
- TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe
- TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming

So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence.


This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind"

Summed up

"Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post.


I don't think you represented my case fairly.

I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it?

They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it.

Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW.

So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie?
.

"The more I look at it, the more convinced I am that NU bussed himself intentionally." -darthfoley
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