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And like you, I had no success in engaging in a conversation with Ray. His response to my asking what his reads on you and exo were was:On December 08 2016 11:17 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 11:00 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 08 2016 10:49 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote:On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote:
I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
Ray looks sketchy to me.
TW looks Town. Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't. The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it. But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now. So just to summarize, these are my suspicions:
- TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe
- TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming
So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind" Summed up "Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post. I don't think you represented my case fairly. I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it? They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it. Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW. So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie? If you and TW are interested in using math to demonstrate whether or not cop should claim, why the sudden lack of interest today? Exo made a strong push in favor of cop claiming. TW made a short mention that cop should only claim if he checks red. You haven't mentioned anything at all. I would expect that TW should be fighting hard against Exo and you to have some sort of opinion as well. You two were so passionate yesterday but you don't seem to care today.
where he completely disregarded my question and my point on him not pushing us.
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On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote:
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
@Exo, I still would like an explanation for the bolded
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On December 09 2016 02:12 NeverUnlucky wrote:
cakepie, I think you're giving TW too much credit for 170 seeing as he blatantly sheeped my read
I'm not unaware of this. I said #170 "is a start" as contrast to #166 which is a non-starter for me. i.e. that's the type of direction he should go in.
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I went over H1's filter.
He has two posts of substance being 124 and 126.
124: + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote:
Like wtf H1, at least try. Maybe we've exhausted the available material on TW, but tell me something about NU or ExO or CRay. ExO has maintained that the cop should claim. I dont particularly agree, I'd rather tempt fate on a no-lynch and have the cop end-of-night phase post their N0 check, with the possibility of getting a N1 check as well. Besides that, ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread, and I'm not sure where that falls on the scummy/stupid scale so I dont want to pursue a lynch there.
I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion.
I do not like NU's overly defensive tone following the daypost when CR accused TW/NU of hiding behind poorly reasoned math. + Show Spoiler [#86] +On December 07 2016 10:01 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote:
I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. I find it opportunistic that you call me and tw out on our lack of assumptions now that the medic was shanked rather than when we were actually discussing it ie I doubt that you would be reproaching us this if it was a VT that flipped today. Also, I dislike that you are entering the day with two targets you'd like to see lynched, especially since pretty much nothing happened N0, so I don't understand how you're ready to see myself or tw lynched already. Also, I don't think your justification to scum-read either of us is worthy of calling us lynch targets. Especially the 2nd paragraph in the above spoiler, it reads to me as less about NU being one of the targets and more about CR having more than one target, when they're being accused with same reasoning. Why would CR be inclined to single someone out in this scenario? To me, there's no reason for it and NU's post comes off as contrived to me.
As you said, most of the TW material has been covered so I'll skip over it. Also, I think you're town. My vote preferences are: 1-No-Lynch 2-TW 3-NU 4-ExO 5-CR 6-cake 7-me
-His ExO read is wishy-washy.
-I disagree with his CR read, but at least he is consistent with it in 126 + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 04:41 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 04:26 cakepie wrote:You've given me some insight into something that was of interest to me. Thanks.
On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote:
I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion. But would you agree that it doesn't quite pass muster for both scum NU+TW to come out and try to dictate plan to town?
On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote:
ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread Is this for #107 + #110 or is there something else that makes you say this? Re: CR - I wouldn't dismiss the notion out of hand, but its not high on my gutcheck rating. Being able to come out on blue-planning is a really safe way for mafia to seem invested without actually doing anything. That is only compounded by the fact that our doc got shot first, rendering a huge portion of N0 reasoning useless for the purposes of planning. CR is at least trying to use those posts to get reads. Re: ExO - There are those two posts, and then there is him somehow thinking there are 50+ pages [ #96. #97]. That might have been sarcasm? I'm not seeing a motive for him to do this as either faction other than straight up carelessness, its more of an annoyance than a scumread atm.
-His paragraph on me states that my tone is defensive, but when I read the post he quoted, I have the opposite impression of the post. It reads as aggressive as I'm the one who's attacking CR. He even acknowledges that in his following paragraph, so I think he's being inconsistent here.
Also, clarification @hopeless: I was not calling out Ray for having more than one target; I was calling him out for ENTERING the day with targets in mind ie it feels fabricated to start a day with an idea of who to push.
-Lazy sheeping of cake's tw read.
My take: Null? I disagree with him on points, and he seems lazy on some other points, but I can't find anything objectively scummy in his filter.
Hopeless: What is your updated read on CR, myself and Exo?
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hm I'm trying to get out of the town tunnel mindset on NU so I'm trying to make a scum case on him but I actually have no dirt (besides my personal vendetta on the word opportunistic). is anyone scumreading him? I want some perspective here.
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Okay, thoughts on ExO are somewhat roughly cobbled together but I'd rather dump what I have and engage thread.
tl;dr: Despite him being clearly present, I don't find him exactly forthcoming with information, nor trying to communicate ideas clearly. Drops tidbits in maybe stream of consciousness but doesn't elaborate well. He eventually answers some questions but misses others. Lacks progression wrt his position on TW.
#98~#100 could be stream of consciousness, just little snippets. #98 had my attention, but I had such a hard time getting him to clarify more on it.
I ask him in #102
- to consider that posting from town would not be carelessly optimistic
- to elaborate why he doesn't think TW was buddying NU
I don't think he ever answered.
#107 seems really contrived to me:- + Show Spoiler +
Just sat down and actually read TW's plan
- + Show Spoiler +
I have a hard time thinking he meant it to be taken seriously.
- + Show Spoiler +
NU says (I had a hell of a time trying to copy/paste this quote so I'm just copy pasting the direct portion):
"His posts don't seem like he's trying to appear good rather like he's saying what he thinks."
And I think this is a hella convoluted thing to say. Saying what you think isn't necessarily a town indicator, and conversely trying to appear good isn't soley a scum indicator.
So, he finds NU's wording convoluted, and doesn't agree with NU's assessment -- where does this put ExO wrt TW? NU thinks TW might be genuine town, ExO doesn't think so? Doesn't say?
I don't actually find NU's quote there to be convoluted; otoh I have a hard time following where ExO is going with his thoughts here.
- Goes on TW's "reward town for giving a shit" except he soon finds he misread the whole lot
- + Show Spoiler +
On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote:
Best lead I have so far. But I'm skeptical. What if I'm just seeing your read and starting to suspect him because of that instead of actual scum slipping. hm :/
"My strongest scumread is on TW but it's not really my scumread cuz cakepie made me do it. cakepie why you force me scumread TW?"
It really lacks coherence, feels like low investment/interest in places.
Top it off off with a carelessly wrong read that he immediately abdicates responsibility for.
Then there's the whole "misread 5 as 50" because other games grow huge, at less than halfway through a 7-player nightstart with lowish activity N0. And "oops I didn't know we could no-lynch" in an IML game. Both also reek of low investment and attention.
It took #115 and #127 before I got #129 in response. He focuses on Ray's #106 to explain his disagreement with Ray's logic. All other questions fall by the wayside.
And then again in #161 he "largely agrees" with my TW case and doesn't state what part(s) he disagrees with. The only other time he talked about TW case was the #107 read he had to bin because it was wrong -- a read that was at best hesitant and at worst he was not taking responsibility for. There's zero progression / information for how he got there.
Asking him questions keeps feeling like chasing at shadows for some reason, it's like I see him around, engage him, oh he's gone -- and this happens multiple occasions at different times -- this is probably nothing but it just rubs me the wrong way.
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On December 09 2016 02:45 Tumblewood wrote:
hm I'm trying to get out of the town tunnel mindset on NU so I'm trying to make a scum case on him but I actually have no dirt (besides my personal vendetta on the word opportunistic). is anyone scumreading him? I want some perspective here.
xD
If it helps you, here's my filter from last game. I was scum and lynched D1 (This was 8 days ago).
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I find 5th bullet point to be compelling. It struck me as strange when I read it.
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@NU re H1
The 'cute' (?) thing about H1 is that bit asking permission to sheep. When I deny permission, 124/126 pretty precisely hit upon topics I want people's opinions on, and things I might have missed. There's some level of "I agree with you on these things" coupled with "here's things you want or that might help you". That seems attentive if nothing else.
This though:
On December 09 2016 01:29 Hopeless1der wrote:
I'm <-> this close to just putting a vote on you to see if scum mylo victory, but I wont.
didn't follow through on it, but I don't like the talk of spite vote?
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Did H1 just vote and bugger off? Meh.
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I see what you mean. On the flip side, you had to ask him for his opinion on me/exo/ray for him to provide it which reinforces my point of him being lazy or even reactive rather than proactive.
I honestly don't think much of the talk of "spite vote" if it even is one. Reading the previous sentence leading to this statement ("you're taking one persons meta and applying it to another person. Thats fucking ludicrous"), he might've been pissed at TW (though I don't see why, TW's post was not a "piss-off" imo). Dunno.
TW, update on your scum-filter-dive of me? 
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On December 09 2016 03:15 cakepie wrote:
Did H1 just vote and bugger off? Meh.
Yes.
Also, I noticed that in his last post he wrote: "My previous list stands"
I find it hard to believe that his stance on CRay, ExO and me haven't changed since, especially since I think that his reads weren't strong at the time.
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On December 09 2016 03:18 NeverUnlucky wrote:
On the flip side, you had to ask him for his opinion on me/exo/ray for him to provide it which reinforces my point of him being lazy or even reactive rather than proactive.
I'll grant "reactive rather than proactive". Maybe lazy to write redundant reads. Certainly not lazy with reading thread and being on top of the state of the game.
On December 09 2016 03:20 NeverUnlucky wrote:
I find it hard to believe that his stance on CRay, ExO and me haven't changed since, especially since I think that his reads weren't strong at the time.
I see the markedly different effort level too, but I could ascribe it to impending nolynch.
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On December 09 2016 02:48 cakepie wrote:
he "largely agrees" with my TW case [...] There's zero progression / information for how he got there.
Hm, maybe not completely zero, but there is this bit:
On December 08 2016 15:27 ExO_ wrote:
I don't think cakepie is being an asshat. and I find the tone of your posts here to be odd. Saying they could go either way, instead of saying I'm town and you're clearly wrong I think says a lot about the position you are speaking from. But still there is very little:
#98 TW looks Town. <-- no elaboration!
#107 "Why are you making me scumread TW?" <-- couched read?!
#153 cakepie isn't an asshat and TW's tone is off
#161 "largely agrees" with my TW case <-- no elaboration!
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On December 09 2016 02:48 cakepie wrote:
Then there's the whole "misread 5 as 50" because other games grow huge, at less than halfway through D1 on a 7-player nightstart with lowish activity N0. And "oops I didn't know we could no-lynch" in an IML game.
ebwop: "halfway through D1"
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yeah looking at the scum filter + having heard his history on that other site, there's no way NU is this convincing as scum
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On December 09 2016 02:02 Tumblewood wrote:
well I'm never going to convince you that you're scum. but understand that I am doing the best job I can finding scum using logic I consider to be good.
TW, you think cakepie is scum? What the fucking fuck? Please respond to this with either "I think cakepie is scum" or "I do not think cakepie is scum".
Thank you for your cooperation, Tumblewood.
On December 09 2016 02:40 NeverUnlucky wrote:I went over H1's filter. He has two posts of substance being 124 and 126. 124: + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote:
Like wtf H1, at least try. Maybe we've exhausted the available material on TW, but tell me something about NU or ExO or CRay. ExO has maintained that the cop should claim. I dont particularly agree, I'd rather tempt fate on a no-lynch and have the cop end-of-night phase post their N0 check, with the possibility of getting a N1 check as well. Besides that, ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread, and I'm not sure where that falls on the scummy/stupid scale so I dont want to pursue a lynch there.
I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion.
I do not like NU's overly defensive tone following the daypost when CR accused TW/NU of hiding behind poorly reasoned math. + Show Spoiler [#86] +On December 07 2016 10:01 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote:
I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. I find it opportunistic that you call me and tw out on our lack of assumptions now that the medic was shanked rather than when we were actually discussing it ie I doubt that you would be reproaching us this if it was a VT that flipped today. Also, I dislike that you are entering the day with two targets you'd like to see lynched, especially since pretty much nothing happened N0, so I don't understand how you're ready to see myself or tw lynched already. Also, I don't think your justification to scum-read either of us is worthy of calling us lynch targets. Especially the 2nd paragraph in the above spoiler, it reads to me as less about NU being one of the targets and more about CR having more than one target, when they're being accused with same reasoning. Why would CR be inclined to single someone out in this scenario? To me, there's no reason for it and NU's post comes off as contrived to me.
As you said, most of the TW material has been covered so I'll skip over it. Also, I think you're town. My vote preferences are: 1-No-Lynch 2-TW 3-NU 4-ExO 5-CR 6-cake 7-me -His ExO read is wishy-washy. -I disagree with his CR read, but at least he is consistent with it in 126 + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 04:41 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 04:26 cakepie wrote:You've given me some insight into something that was of interest to me. Thanks.
On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote:
I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion. But would you agree that it doesn't quite pass muster for both scum NU+TW to come out and try to dictate plan to town?
On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote:
ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread Is this for #107 + #110 or is there something else that makes you say this? Re: CR - I wouldn't dismiss the notion out of hand, but its not high on my gutcheck rating. Being able to come out on blue-planning is a really safe way for mafia to seem invested without actually doing anything. That is only compounded by the fact that our doc got shot first, rendering a huge portion of N0 reasoning useless for the purposes of planning. CR is at least trying to use those posts to get reads. Re: ExO - There are those two posts, and then there is him somehow thinking there are 50+ pages [ #96. #97]. That might have been sarcasm? I'm not seeing a motive for him to do this as either faction other than straight up carelessness, its more of an annoyance than a scumread atm. -His paragraph on me states that my tone is defensive, but when I read the post he quoted, I have the opposite impression of the post. It reads as aggressive as I'm the one who's attacking CR. He even acknowledges that in his following paragraph, so I think he's being inconsistent here. Also, clarification @hopeless: I was not calling out Ray for having more than one target; I was calling him out for ENTERING the day with targets in mind ie it feels fabricated to start a day with an idea of who to push. -Lazy sheeping of cake's tw read.
My take: Null? I disagree with him on points, and he seems lazy on some other points, but I can't find anything objectively scummy in his filter. Hopeless: What is your updated read on CR, myself and Exo?
All three of you are in that -null- zone. TW is *still* my priority lynch if a gun was held to my head. CR and ExO havent given much, you've given some to make me think you're not as scummy in general, especially compared to TW.
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On December 09 2016 03:20 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 03:15 cakepie wrote:
Did H1 just vote and bugger off? Meh. Yes. Also, I noticed that in his last post he wrote: "My previous list stands" I find it hard to believe that his stance on CRay, ExO and me haven't changed since, especially since I think that his reads weren't strong at the time.
My reads on the listed werent strong to begin with and they still arent, my strong reads are TW and cake.
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On December 09 2016 03:15 cakepie wrote:
Did H1 just vote and bugger off? Meh.
At the very least, I voted to No-Lynch, rather than give the remotest possibility that scum would be able to win right now. Now the wifom becomes: would i call attention to this if i was scum?
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On December 09 2016 04:01 Hopeless1der wrote:
All three of you are in that -null- zone. TW is *still* my priority lynch if a gun was held to my head. CR and ExO havent given much, you've given some to make me think you're not as scummy in general, especially compared to TW.
Yet not enough to elevate NU above CR & Exo?
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EPT
