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[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot - Page 11

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
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Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
December 08 2016 19:11 GMT
#201
On December 09 2016 04:07 cakepie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 04:01 Hopeless1der wrote:
All three of you are in that -null- zone. TW is *still* my priority lynch if a gun was held to my head. CR and ExO havent given much, you've given some to make me think you're not as scummy in general, especially compared to TW.

Yet not enough to elevate NU above CR & Exo?

stop asking me real questions..Fine my previous list was wrong. TW-ExO-CR-NU-cake-me
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
December 08 2016 19:12 GMT
#202
but really, thank you for putting in the work for town cakepie
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 08 2016 19:15 GMT
#203
On December 09 2016 02:14 NeverUnlucky wrote:
And like you, I had no success in engaging in a conversation with Ray. His response to my asking what his reads on you and exo were was:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2016 11:17 Chairman Ray wrote:
On December 08 2016 11:00 NeverUnlucky wrote:
On December 08 2016 10:49 Chairman Ray wrote:
On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote:
On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote:
On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote:
I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.

I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.

Ray looks sketchy to me.

TW looks Town.


Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't.

The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it.

But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now.

So just to summarize, these are my suspicions:
- TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe
- TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming

So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence.


This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind"

Summed up

"Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post.


I don't think you represented my case fairly.

I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it?

They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it.

Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW.

So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie?


If you and TW are interested in using math to demonstrate whether or not cop should claim, why the sudden lack of interest today? Exo made a strong push in favor of cop claiming. TW made a short mention that cop should only claim if he checks red. You haven't mentioned anything at all. I would expect that TW should be fighting hard against Exo and you to have some sort of opinion as well. You two were so passionate yesterday but you don't seem to care today.

where he completely disregarded my question and my point on him not pushing us.


I think it's quite clear that I have been pushing on you two, because that's all I've been doing this game. The only thing I haven't done is post my final verdict, which you seem to be really worried about. This is twice that you have asked me to push on you both. Not only that, you posted a couple more times about other people's perception of you:

On December 09 2016 03:18 NeverUnlucky wrote:
...
TW, update on your scum-filter-dive of me?

On December 09 2016 03:20 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 03:15 cakepie wrote:
Did H1 just vote and bugger off? Meh.

...
I find it hard to believe that his stance on CRay, ExO and me haven't changed since, especially since I think that his reads weren't strong at the time.


And just alluding back to the post where you distanced yourself from TW when all I did was ask for you townread:

On December 07 2016 11:31 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 07 2016 11:15 Chairman Ray wrote:
On December 07 2016 11:09 NeverUnlucky wrote:
On December 07 2016 10:24 Tumblewood wrote:
On December 07 2016 10:10 NeverUnlucky wrote:
On December 07 2016 10:01 NeverUnlucky wrote:
On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote:
I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe.

I find it opportunistic that you call me and tw out on our lack of assumptions now that the medic was shanked rather than when we were actually discussing it ie I doubt that you would be reproaching us this if it was a VT that flipped today.

Also, I dislike that you are entering the day with two targets you'd like to see lynched, especially since pretty much nothing happened N0, so I don't understand how you're ready to see myself or tw lynched already. Also, I don't think your justification to scum-read either of us is worthy of calling us lynch targets.

Point 2 is specifically worse because we're in mylo, and you shouldn't enter the day with a pre-conceived idea of who you want to lynch.

well, you might if the pre-conceived idea is a series of posts leading you to the conclusion that someone is scum. mylo is like a normal day except usually without a lynch

I disagree, but it's pointless to argue about theoretical/non-game related stuff.

And ray doesn't have that series of posts.


Same question to you. You said you had a town lean on Tumblewood, even though you mentioned that nothing has happened this game. How come he's leaning town?

His posts don't seem like he's trying to appear good rather like he's saying what he thinks.

However, I am wary that he may be attempting to buddy because of these two posts:
Show nested quote +
On December 07 2016 00:36 Tumblewood wrote:
On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote:
On December 07 2016 00:28 Tumblewood wrote:
On December 07 2016 00:26 NeverUnlucky wrote:
On December 07 2016 00:24 Tumblewood wrote:
On December 07 2016 00:17 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Yo, TW, you up for a chat with me? I've one spare hour

I've got half of one but sure

Noice.

Do you think you're a good cop check for tonight?

no because I think I'm one of the more likely players to die tonight

That's the generic answer.

Why do you think so? Have you ever been NKed before? Judging from HM3 idk why you would think you're in danger of being killed, lol.

If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. This game is pretty slow so far.

because the NK is always between me you and Koshi. the other players aren't 'respected'and aren't acting townie either

I don't understand why anybody would think that I am a night target for something that is not a blue snipe. idk, I feel like he's either over-evaluating my play or attempting to be on my good side.

Show nested quote +
On December 07 2016 01:37 Tumblewood wrote:
On December 07 2016 01:24 Tumblewood wrote:
On December 07 2016 00:46 Tumblewood wrote:
On December 07 2016 00:39 NeverUnlucky wrote:
On December 07 2016 00:36 Tumblewood wrote:
On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote:
On December 07 2016 00:28 Tumblewood wrote:
On December 07 2016 00:26 NeverUnlucky wrote:
On December 07 2016 00:24 Tumblewood wrote:
[quote]
I've got half of one but sure

Noice.

Do you think you're a good cop check for tonight?

no because I think I'm one of the more likely players to die tonight

That's the generic answer.

Why do you think so? Have you ever been NKed before? Judging from HM3 idk why you would think you're in danger of being killed, lol.

If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. This game is pretty slow so far.

because the NK is always between me you and Koshi. the other players aren't 'respected'and aren't acting townie either

Oh wow, so much honor for me. c:

What do you think of other players' entries, specifically cakepie entering with math and hopeless checking in to check out?

And Koshi, what happened to the "This town isn't going to be lazy" shtick you had last game?

their entrances are not exciting so idc

as for you, me, koshi I like to reward give-a-shitness

ebwop

actually for Koshi it's the whole 'respect kill' thing. didn't mean to lump him in with us


Here he set me and him in a separate category, and it made me uneasy.

Meh, he's more town than maf to me.


It's quite clear that you are overly concerned with other people's perception of you, and that's a huge scumtell.

If you want to know my opinion of ExO and cakepie, I think they're town for now.
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
December 08 2016 19:24 GMT
#204
On December 09 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 02:48 cakepie wrote:
he "largely agrees" with my TW case [...] There's zero progression / information for how he got there.


Hm, maybe not completely zero, but there is this bit:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2016 15:27 ExO_ wrote:
I don't think cakepie is being an asshat. and I find the tone of your posts here to be odd. Saying they could go either way, instead of saying I'm town and you're clearly wrong I think says a lot about the position you are speaking from.
But still there is very little:
#98 TW looks Town. <-- no elaboration!
#107 "Why are you making me scumread TW?" <-- couched read?!
#153 cakepie isn't an asshat and TW's tone is off
#161 "largely agrees" with my TW case <-- no elaboration!

I can get behind him not elaborating but there's definitely a progression there — I don't know what else you'd call what you outlined. his change of opinion gives me no trouble.
good times for all
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
December 08 2016 19:31 GMT
#205
On December 08 2016 11:11 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 07 2016 16:37 ExO_ wrote:
Actually I just realized I misread TWs posts he never says rewarding town. I'm starting to think I'm going a bit crazy

this post (+ sequence before it) feels very candid. it is hard as scum to fake viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint to reflect that. also it would be a lot of attention to detail to fake a mistake and react realistically.

TW, just to be clear where I stand on this: it's not "viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint" in my eyes. There's no new evidence or new information; nothing changed materially. He messed up plain and simple. The question is whether the reason for messing up is innocuous or sinister.

On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote:
I don't have a good reason for this though, but twice he's said he likes to "reward town for giving a shit".

[snip]

the way he's speaking about "rewarding town" instead of rewarding a player is really fucking off. You reward a player with town cred, you don't "reward town" for speaking.

Best lead I have so far. But I'm skeptical. What if I'm just seeing your read and starting to suspect him because of that instead of actual scum slipping. hm :/

- try to find dirt on TW, finds it difficult; feels "skeptical" of his own "best lead"
- blame me for influencing him to tryhard to scumread TW
- realize he actually messed up the read, admits error

If he thought his read wasn't exactly good, why not hold off and take another look? It's not a speed contest.
There's also an element of feeling somehow compelled or obliged to post a scumread even if he has to force it. Awkward!
Finally, insinuating that I'm somehow responsible for forcing him to find suspicion when he didn't suspect TW before. WTF?

No comments on my case, like "I agree/disagree with this part."
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
December 08 2016 19:33 GMT
#206
ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler +
turns out no one likes being lynched
and because the line between "a regular amount" and "too much" is incredibly subjective
good times for all
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
December 08 2016 19:35 GMT
#207
On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote:
ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler +
turns out no one likes being lynched
and because the line between "a regular amount" and "too much" is incredibly subjective



Incredibly subjective


not an argument for them being scum



Pick one and proceed.
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
December 08 2016 19:38 GMT
#208
also

[quote][QUOTE]On December 09 2016 04:01 Hopeless1der wrote:
[QUOTE]On December 09 2016 02:02 Tumblewood wrote:
well I'm never going to convince you that you're scum. but understand that I am doing the best job I can finding scum using logic I consider to be good.[/QUOTE]
TW, you think cakepie is scum? What the fucking fuck? Please respond to this with either "I think cakepie is scum" or "I do not think cakepie is scum".


Thank you for your cooperation, Tumblewood.




[/quote]
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
December 08 2016 19:39 GMT
#209
EBWOP: Shitty nested quotes

also

On December 09 2016 04:01 Hopeless1der wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 02:02 Tumblewood wrote:
well I'm never going to convince you that you're scum. but understand that I am doing the best job I can finding scum using logic I consider to be good.

TW, you think cakepie is scum? What the fucking fuck? Please respond to this with either "I think cakepie is scum" or "I do not think cakepie is scum".


Thank you for your cooperation, Tumblewood.




Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
December 08 2016 19:40 GMT
#210
re: cakepie - ExO's mistake was very likely unintentional. it's not something I've ever seen faked by mafia. if it was a mistake, then the information effectively was new to ExO, even if it was always there.
good times for all
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
December 08 2016 19:42 GMT
#211
On December 09 2016 04:40 Tumblewood wrote:
re: cakepie - ExO's mistake was very likely unintentional. it's not something I've ever seen faked by mafia. if it was a mistake, then the information effectively was new to ExO, even if it was always there.

I gave you acceptable answers in quotations. Pick one and submit your response.
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
December 08 2016 19:43 GMT
#212
On December 09 2016 04:40 Tumblewood wrote:
re: cakepie - ExO's mistake was very likely unintentional. it's not something I've ever seen faked by mafia. if it was a mistake, then the information effectively was new to ExO, even if it was always there.

The problem is you're thinking "it's not mafia faking a town!mistake".
Whereas I'm exploring "could be mafia committing a forced error".
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
December 08 2016 19:44 GMT
#213
On December 09 2016 04:43 cakepie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 04:40 Tumblewood wrote:
re: cakepie - ExO's mistake was very likely unintentional. it's not something I've ever seen faked by mafia. if it was a mistake, then the information effectively was new to ExO, even if it was always there.

The problem is you're thinking "it's not mafia faking a town!mistake".
Whereas I'm exploring "could be mafia committing a forced error".

the simplest answer is exo is illiterate.
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
December 08 2016 19:46 GMT
#214
TW you ever gonna answer my direct and binary questions?
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
December 08 2016 19:47 GMT
#215
a little over 2 hours left today..TW if I dont get an answer in the next hour I'm voting you.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 08 2016 19:50 GMT
#216
On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote:
ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler +
turns out no one likes being lynched
and because the line between "a regular amount" and "too much" is incredibly subjective


You argue that being worried about perception can be either town or mafia, and it's incredibly subjective, that I agree with, which is why I pushed on him. However, you came to NU's defense before letting him speak for himself, which is a direct contradiction with your argument.

Just a few posts ago you were asking for other people's scumreads on NU so you can gain some perspective. You don't actually seem that interested after all.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
December 08 2016 20:10 GMT
#217
##vote: tumblrewood

Ah fuck it let's do it
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
December 08 2016 20:20 GMT
#218
On December 09 2016 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote:
ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler +
turns out no one likes being lynched
and because the line between "a regular amount" and "too much" is incredibly subjective



Show nested quote +
Incredibly subjective


Show nested quote +
not an argument for them being scum



Pick one and proceed.

is this your question? I don't see a conflict here.
good times for all
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
December 08 2016 20:24 GMT
#219
I mean...that was one of them TW, the other was most recently #209

..

You've been voted and are dancing around giving me an answer. The thread, and my filter, are not that long. This is ridiculous. I'll give you until the hour I gave you is up.
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
December 08 2016 20:25 GMT
#220
Also to spell it out for you, a read cannot be simultaneously "not an argument" and "subjective". Those are mutually exclusive traits of an argument.
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