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On December 09 2016 06:44 Hopeless1der wrote: TW was not slammed when 2 people voted him, Either one of the voters (CR and cake) were scum OR TW is scum. Technically its possible that everyone involved is wrong, but fuck that noise, I'm calling TW scum, Good fucking game.
Cop, dont claim until you absolutely have to at end of Nightphase.
If TW claims cop, lynch that piece of garbage. I will not accept him claiming cop this game.
##Unvote##Vote: Tumblewood
I fully understand that this day is going to be a no lynch. I'm like 51/49 on lynhching TW today.
On December 09 2016 07:19 Tumblewood wrote: tonight I will have a lot of time, which I will use to post extensive/organized reads (actually I have about 45 minutes to answer questions now). given that I had two votes and no one hammered, we can eliminate the following scum teams: ExO + NU ExO + 1der 1der + NU all other teams (there are 15 possible) would either need an extra town vote to hammer or include me. I strongly believe that both members of the scum team fall within cakepie, ray, and 1der.
What about the scenario where a scum just wasn't online at the time?
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On December 09 2016 07:29 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 06:44 Hopeless1der wrote: TW was not slammed when 2 people voted him, Either one of the voters (CR and cake) were scum OR TW is scum. Technically its possible that everyone involved is wrong, but fuck that noise, I'm calling TW scum, Good fucking game.
Cop, dont claim until you absolutely have to at end of Nightphase.
If TW claims cop, lynch that piece of garbage. I will not accept him claiming cop this game.
##Unvote##Vote: Tumblewood
I fully understand that this day is going to be a no lynch. I'm like 51/49 on lynhching TW today. Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 07:19 Tumblewood wrote: tonight I will have a lot of time, which I will use to post extensive/organized reads (actually I have about 45 minutes to answer questions now). given that I had two votes and no one hammered, we can eliminate the following scum teams: ExO + NU ExO + 1der 1der + NU all other teams (there are 15 possible) would either need an extra town vote to hammer or include me. I strongly believe that both members of the scum team fall within cakepie, ray, and 1der. What about the scenario where a scum just wasn't online at the time? hm that's true. it was a long time that I sat with two votes, but neither ExO not NU posted in that time. I doubt on other grounds that they're scum, but really it seems the votes have determined nothing for certain.
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Also hopeless, why did you vote TW after cakepie and I rescinded?
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The case on Hopeless1der
Preamble I plan on writing posts like this for each player still alive besides myself, going in order the filters are listed. This isn't necessarily an indictment but an analysis of each player and a reasoned guess to their alignment, trying to start from square one and not cloud my judgement with previous bias. I will not go through every post, but I will use quotes liberally.
The case for
- In this post, near the start, 1der is incredulous (and clarifies -- it's like the mafia equivalent of a double-take) in a way that mafia rarely are.
- This post + Show Spoiler [quoted] +
On December 09 2016 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote:ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler +turns out no one likes being lynched and because the line between "a regular amount" and "too much" is incredibly subjective Pick one and proceed. is incredulous in a similar way, and good in a similar way, but also icky and bad in a way I will describe later.
- The threat 1der makes + Show Spoiler [near deadline] +
On December 09 2016 04:47 Hopeless1der wrote: a little over 2 hours left today..TW if I dont get an answer in the next hour I'm voting you. to me reminds me of the threats I tend to make when I strongly want to vote someone (as town) but rationally know it is a poor play. The vote after is also part of this sentiment. Even if I don't agree with it, it's townie.
The case against
- N0 he made one post and left. The post + Show Spoiler [in question] +
On December 07 2016 00:21 Hopeless1der wrote: Why are there suggestions for the cop to claim during D1? Why not end of N1 when theres a chance at 2 checks? asked a question to no one in particular and hardly seemed to seek out a response. Only one reason for this seems likely, which is that he wanted to avoid complete inactivity but had nothing to say. While town does this on occasion, it gives me pause because he seemed to care little about the answer to his question.
- Next day he initiated wanting to lynch me, but he didn't present any reasons of his own; he sheeped cakepie + Show Spoiler +
On December 08 2016 03:27 Hopeless1der wrote: cakepie is it okay if I just sheep you today? and then when discussing other players left out anything on me because "most of the TW material has been covered". Sheeping is a safe way for mafia to attack town without arguing for themselves.
- 1der puts full trust into cakepie as town without ever discussing why (this is the first comment on cakepie's alignment: + Show Spoiler [but only barely] +
On December 09 2016 04:12 Hopeless1der wrote:but really, thank you for putting in the work for town cakepie ). Town-tunneling is a real phenomenon, but it makes me uncomfortable; it feels more like he is hiding behind someone he can safely call town.
- 1der asks me to pick between two non-contradictory statements I made + Show Spoiler [right here] +
On December 09 2016 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote:ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler +turns out no one likes being lynched and because the line between "a regular amount" and "too much" is incredibly subjective Pick one and proceed. and attacks me for choosing both, but fails to read and comprehend my words. It comes off as an attempt to get me lynched more than to get it right. By requiring one of two binary answers, provided by himself, he forced words into my mouth (and still, somehow, did not learn to read).
Verdict Probable scum. There are reasons to believe 1der is not scum, but his game is so focused on getting me lynched (especially given his shortage of original reasons) that it is hard to see him as town.
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The case on cakepie
Preamble After this post I will take a short break, both to eat food and to keep myself from going insane writing cases. I fear that already my mindset of avoiding bias is slipping. After the break I'll resume with ExO.
The case for
- I have to give him some credit, at least, for working his ass off for town. He's put an unlikely amount of effort into this game for someone just faking it.
- He tries to gain perspective on things he doesn't understand + Show Spoiler [for instance here] +
On December 07 2016 16:56 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote: Just sat down and actually read TW's plan before, I kinda didn't pay much attention to it at first. It's actually dogshit assuming cop and doc are going to make it through to d2 with everythink hunky dory, so much to the point that I have a hard time thinking he meant it to be taken seriously. This is snark. This might be half in jest This exhaustively enumerates N0 thru up to D3 and lists what he sees as all three possible scenarios at D3. That's too much effort for simply joking or trolling. although he stops short of accepting things as mistakes.
- Enforces town + Show Spoiler [like here] +
On December 08 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote: Like wtf H1, at least try. Maybe we've exhausted the available material on TW, but tell me something about NU or ExO or CRay. on putting effort into the game. Scum can easily allow or encourage inactivity to keep town in the dark on itself.
The case against
- From his first posts concerning me, cakepie is concerned with indicting me + Show Spoiler [on the grounds of enjoying non-blue-fo…] +
On December 06 2016 17:00 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring What a convenient thing to say now. for something that is not at all indicative of alignment. No 1der + Show Spoiler [ayy] + he accuses me of being scum if all of my actions are twisted to the most scum-leaning possibility.
- Continuing, he explains how all of my actions were deliberate attempts to mislead and misinform the town. How on Earth do you reach the conclusion that my plan, quoted here, uses devices and rhetoric subversively when obviously the mistake wasn't even intentional? Cakepie overall spends several posts selling my mistakes, contained in obviously low-effort posts (as in, spending little time typing them, not thinking about them) as intentional. Keen to assume mistakes as intentional is always scummy; town isn't looking to paint others as scum without being totally convinced themselves... and also having decent reasons.
- Chairman Ray posts with similarly poor logic, and cakepie responds + Show Spoiler [in this quote] +
On December 08 2016 13:10 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 11:46 Chairman Ray wrote: In my experiences, mafia tend to buddy up more when they're the most active ones, and draw distance when town are the most active ones. If the two mafia were the active ones in the middle of a quiet town, I could totally see them patting each other on the back for being active. Isn't that a bit circular and self-reinforcing? 1. Active players seem to buddy in quiet N0 -> 2. mafia together? -> 3. oh look mafia buddying in quiet town -> 4. go back to step 2 Furthermore, I think it looks more like only one (TW) is actively buddying. I think NU might already started smelling a rat and was questioning why/how TW formed that absurd TW/NU/Koshi circle: Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 15:48 cakepie wrote:I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74. I believe that NU could be genuinely (if naively) broaching the possibility of "If VTs agree never to fakeclaim, all CCs become MvT". TW jumps at the opportunity to gain easy towncred by enumerating possible scenarios according to mechanics, and to engage NU to try to start a buddybuddy going jerking over setup. TW's scumbuddy is somewhere else, and I think they could be tentatively drawing distance at that point in time, with town?NU active, soondead!Koshi and uncertainty over how active the rest of us would behave. If you're going down the road of associative reads I think there's more interesting interactions than just backpatting. in the normal manner of explaining why it's wrong. He makes no attempt to show why Ray is scum, even though his mistake was no less 'egregious' than mine.
- Although he accuses me of trying to mislead NU rather than himself, cakepie plays to NU even more + Show Spoiler [here] +
Could he be trying to establish a bond with you as far back as #44/45, eventually leading up to #72+? Did scum!bleweed take advantage of the opportunity you presented to earn easy towncred by talking setup and scenarios? by rhetorically asking if I was buddying NU all along. Consider also that he had expressed skepticism when Ray proposed that we were buddying.
Verdict Scum. Yeah, I don't like to speak in absolutes, but I fail to find any explanation for how cakepie is town. He reacts in different ways to the same tells from different players and above all speaks to why I am scum with evidence that should lead no reasonable person to his conclusions. Trying to find the townie in him, I felt like I was grasping for anything to explain it. If not scum then cakepie is one of the most misled townies I have ever seen, even ahead of Rels that one time.
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TW, one thing you keep doing when people push on you is to say that what you did was not indicative of alignment. The whole point of pushing on you is to get your side of the story before making a judgement. Everything that was said in this game is not completely alignment indicative, including all your scumreads. But instead of actually explaining your actions from your perspective, you just say that town could have totally said the same thing. That's the exact sort of defense that mafia gives if they didn't have any honest town intentions, but tries to argue that they could exist.
Here's a couple examples:
On December 08 2016 15:24 Tumblewood wrote:gotta check cakepie's meta to see if being an asshat is his normal meta + Show Spoiler +inb4 this is also a subversive, manipulative trick designed intentionally to buddy NU and mislead town I don't know if you think you're spotting my mafia tricks or some shit but actually you're finding evidence where there is none. literally things that could go either way and you are construing them toward I am scum without hesitation
On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote:The case against[list] [*]From his first posts concerning me, cakepie is concerned with indicting me + Show Spoiler [on the grounds of enjoying non-blue-fo…] +On December 06 2016 17:00 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring What a convenient thing to say now. for something that is not at all indicative of alignment. No 1der + Show Spoiler [ayy] + he accuses me of being scum if all of my actions are twisted to the most scum-leaning possibility. [*]Continuing, he explains how all of my actions were deliberate attempts to mislead and misinform the town. How on Earth do you reach the conclusion that my plan, quoted here, uses devices and rhetoric subversively when obviously the mistake wasn't even intentional? Cakepie overall spends several posts selling my mistakes, contained in obviously low-effort posts (as in, spending little time typing them, not thinking about them) as intentional. Keen to assume mistakes as intentional is always scummy; town isn't looking to paint others as scum without being totally convinced themselves... and also having decent reasons.Rels that one time.
You also did the same thing when I pushed onto NU, defending him by saying that his actions could have been either town or mafia.
What was your rationale for these defenses, or would you like to argue that town could have totally defended themselves like this too?
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On December 09 2016 10:33 Chairman Ray wrote:TW, one thing you keep doing when people push on you is to say that what you did was not indicative of alignment. The whole point of pushing on you is to get your side of the story before making a judgement. Everything that was said in this game is not completely alignment indicative, including all your scumreads. But instead of actually explaining your actions from your perspective, you just say that town could have totally said the same thing. That's the exact sort of defense that mafia gives if they didn't have any honest town intentions, but tries to argue that they could exist. Here's a couple examples: Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 15:24 Tumblewood wrote:gotta check cakepie's meta to see if being an asshat is his normal meta + Show Spoiler +inb4 this is also a subversive, manipulative trick designed intentionally to buddy NU and mislead town I don't know if you think you're spotting my mafia tricks or some shit but actually you're finding evidence where there is none. literally things that could go either way and you are construing them toward I am scum without hesitation Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote:The case against[list] [*]From his first posts concerning me, cakepie is concerned with indicting me + Show Spoiler [on the grounds of enjoying non-blue-fo…] +On December 06 2016 17:00 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring What a convenient thing to say now. for something that is not at all indicative of alignment. No 1der + Show Spoiler [ayy] + he accuses me of being scum if all of my actions are twisted to the most scum-leaning possibility. [*]Continuing, he explains how all of my actions were deliberate attempts to mislead and misinform the town. How on Earth do you reach the conclusion that my plan, quoted here, uses devices and rhetoric subversively when obviously the mistake wasn't even intentional? Cakepie overall spends several posts selling my mistakes, contained in obviously low-effort posts (as in, spending little time typing them, not thinking about them) as intentional. Keen to assume mistakes as intentional is always scummy; town isn't looking to paint others as scum without being totally convinced themselves... and also having decent reasons.Rels that one time. You also did the same thing when I pushed onto NU, defending him by saying that his actions could have been either town or mafia. What was your rationale for these defenses, or would you like to argue that town could have totally defended themselves like this too? I'm trying to avoid this because I recognize people are scrubs have different opinions on what is a good tell, but I feel that I have to point out when people use reasons that don't actually tell us anything useful to support their argument.
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gah I remember why I don't do this why the hell would I write 3 more extensive cases *sigh* I'll do one more and then do rl work
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The case on ExO_
Preamble This is all I will be able to manage tonight without killing myself. I should have gotten to Ray before, mostly to sort out my own thoughts on him.
The case for
- He isn't afraid to admit when+ Show Spoiler [at the start of the game] +
On December 07 2016 15:15 ExO_ wrote: Kinda null on cakepie. idk its really hard to read anybody with so few posts he has nothing. Scum's instinct is to find opinions when they have none, which makes this an unlikely post for scum.
- Although surely it's been done before, scum rarely make mistakes + Show Spoiler [like this one] +
On December 07 2016 16:37 ExO_ wrote: Actually I just realized I misread TWs posts he never says rewarding town. I'm starting to think I'm going a bit crazy and react convincingly to them even less. ExO's progression once he gets realizes his mistake follows the mindset of town exactly.
- *bias creeping in help* The analysis in this post is spot on. I have to say I am influenced by the fact that I agree with it, but it shows ExO is thinking rationally and critically.
The case against
- 12 hours before deadline, ExO just disappeared. Players of both alignments go AFK, but it is more like scum to avoid drawing attention to themselves around deadline.
- It does raise some red flags that ExO would make several mistakes (setup, other setup, reading comprehension) in one game. If mafia did try to use this as a strategy, it is likely they'd do it several times.
Verdict Town. ExO has provided good analysis consistently and has hardly done anything to give me suspicion. One thing to watch out for, though, is a dropoff after D1 if it seems like he can coast through the game.
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Sorry I've not really been here. I've been working more than expected and when I get home after 12 hours of working I feel like relaxing. Thinking about Mafia is a lot of work. I'm going to wind down, and come back to the thread sometime before I go to bed. Im sure cakepie will show up soon, and hopefully she can prepare her usual list of things for me to respond to.
I'll be back
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#164 TW hard town reading me --> Scum trying to buddy me because I'm town. Other players I think are town think I might be scum because I wanted cop to reveal (because I thought we had to lynch today). However they think I might be scum faking it. TW isn't even considering this possibilty. #164
#170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk
#173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here.
#180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives
#182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain
#185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. Instead he reminds me a bit of myself getting scumread as VT in other TL Mafia games and trying to convince players I am town; subsequently the veterans turning everything I say into reasons why it makes me scum. idk When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum.
#186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me.
#203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU
#205 Cakepie should go read my dota mafia posts, and should look at the last game we played. When I'm town I usually just post whatever comes to mind. I don't sit and craft careful posts. When I'm scum I'm much more careful about what I post. You getting my stream of consciousness and seeing me move around on my reads is because I'm trying to sift through the information and am doubting myself as I go. Do you honestly think I'm faking this as scum? I have trouble believing that you do
#213 fuck off
#215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him
#217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum.
#228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum.
#231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted?
#234 CR still tunnelling NU very hard. I wish CR would consider some other possibility. To me he looks like he's more concerned with having presented a case and pushed it, rather than solving the game.
Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum.
CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum.
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On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #164 TW hard town reading me --> Scum trying to buddy me because I'm town. Other players I think are town think I might be scum because I wanted cop to reveal (because I thought we had to lynch today). However they think I might be scum faking it. TW isn't even considering this possibilty. #164
#170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk
#173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here.
#180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives
#182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain
#185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. Instead he reminds me a bit of myself getting scumread as VT in other TL Mafia games and trying to convince players I am town; subsequently the veterans turning everything I say into reasons why it makes me scum. idk When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum.
#186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me.
#203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU
#205 Cakepie should go read my dota mafia posts, and should look at the last game we played. When I'm town I usually just post whatever comes to mind. I don't sit and craft careful posts. When I'm scum I'm much more careful about what I post. You getting my stream of consciousness and seeing me move around on my reads is because I'm trying to sift through the information and am doubting myself as I go. Do you honestly think I'm faking this as scum? I have trouble believing that you do
#213 fuck off
#215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him
#217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum.
#228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum.
#231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted?
#234 CR still tunnelling NU very hard. I wish CR would consider some other possibility. To me he looks like he's more concerned with having presented a case and pushed it, rather than solving the game.
Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum.
CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum.
ExO, I don't think your read on me is fair, and to some extent, it's my fault for hunting scum on my own rather than being engaged with town. I think that you are town, so I will explain to you exactly what my thought process was. I really need you and all remaining town to trust me, or at least take my reads seriously, because we all need to vote together tomorrow to lynch the mafia.
Where I'm at right now is that TW and NU are the mafia, you are town, cakepie is town, hopeless is town, and obviously I am town. I have mainly pushed onto TW and NU because there are only two mafia, and it's most definitely those two. I think we can all agree that TW is mafia. I pushed onto NU many times and he's given me shoddy answers the first few times, and he's literally disappeared now and hasn't responded to anything else I posted. I posted a case on him that I want him to respond to, and I want all the town to consider as well, and so far, neither has happened. Also, nobody else has given a strong case against anybody else. Do you see why I have no reason to get off of those two?
I haven't pushed much on anybody else besides TW and NU, but that doesn't mean I haven't been considering or caring about them. As for you, hopeless, and cake, there's a lot I like about your play, and a lot that I don't like, but there's little that I can point to and say "hmm, this play is really advancing the scum agenda, and scum would instinctively do this". I don't post townreads or speculative posts on people because me not being able to scumread someone doesn't mean someone else can't. If someone convinces me of a better option than TW or NU, I'm willing to reconsider. I should probably be more actively engaging with people, and that's my bad.
I also feel that I'm being singled out for tunneling. If you look at other people's filters, Hopeless has been tunneling only on TW, cakepie has mostly been on TW and you, and you haven't been aggressive enough to even be considered for tunneling. So besides the fact that I literally said that I'm tunneling onto TW and NU, singling me out seems a little biased.
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ExO, would you mind taking a look at my case on NU:
On December 09 2016 06:44 Chairman Ray wrote: My original case about NU still stands.
At the start of D1, NU and TW had townreads on one another. There was no pressure on them from anybody else. All I did was ask each of them, in a very neutral manner, what their townread was. If you were town and genuinely believed that the other person was town as well, you would just give me your town reads. Instead, NU posted his scumreads on TW about how TW is overpocketing him. The posts that NU were criticizing were posted BEFORE NU said that TW was towny. So when TW was overpocketing NU, NU should be suspicious at that time, but instead, he gave TW a townread. It wasn't until I asked him for his reasonings did he finally post his suspicions. From a mafia perspective, this makes perfect sense. Chairman Ray asked both TW and NU what their townreads were. Oh crap, he's onto us, better not seem too friendly. From a town perspective, this doesn't make a lot of sense.
Secondly, NU in two instances asked about what other people's reads of him were. At those times, TW had a strong townread on him, and only I was really on him. He argued that I wasn't pushing on him, so I guess he didn't feel any pressure at all. I would expect town to only worry about their perception if they are under the gun. So given that the overall vibe was positive towards NU, why was he so pre-occupied with other people's reads on him?
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Woke up earlier feeling like shit, rested a bit more over most of the afternoon but I still don't feel too well.
Supposed to be having time off and yet here I am fucking over my health and fucking over my meta by investing so much into the game. =/
A few quick thoughts on TW:
Only quickly skimmed the posts since I went to bed. Haven't done a careful analytical reading of TW's player casing yet. His EoN seems very null at best.
If TW is town, he's 2015 cakepie -- not a flattering thing. Only reason he's not dead yet is because mylo hesitation; definite D1 mislynch in any other game. If TW is town we're pretty fucked, so I really really want him to be scum.
On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote: cakepie Scum. Yeah, I don't like to speak in absolutes, but I fail to find any explanation for how cakepie is town. The levels of omgus are fucking unreal.
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Hey craycray, anything for me?
What do you think of H1 specifically that EoD1 behavior - "i'd spite vote but won't" - unfair "pick one answer now" questions - voting after we've left off
I'm okay with you pushing NU.
I'd really like to see more people interact with H1 because H1 v TW doesn't give me a good baseline to evaluate H1 interactions with me.
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On December 09 2016 19:04 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #164 TW hard town reading me --> Scum trying to buddy me because I'm town. Other players I think are town think I might be scum because I wanted cop to reveal (because I thought we had to lynch today). However they think I might be scum faking it. TW isn't even considering this possibilty. #164
#170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk
#173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here.
#180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives
#182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain
#185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. Instead he reminds me a bit of myself getting scumread as VT in other TL Mafia games and trying to convince players I am town; subsequently the veterans turning everything I say into reasons why it makes me scum. idk When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum.
#186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me.
#203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU
#205 Cakepie should go read my dota mafia posts, and should look at the last game we played. When I'm town I usually just post whatever comes to mind. I don't sit and craft careful posts. When I'm scum I'm much more careful about what I post. You getting my stream of consciousness and seeing me move around on my reads is because I'm trying to sift through the information and am doubting myself as I go. Do you honestly think I'm faking this as scum? I have trouble believing that you do
#213 fuck off
#215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him
#217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum.
#228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum.
#231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted?
#234 CR still tunnelling NU very hard. I wish CR would consider some other possibility. To me he looks like he's more concerned with having presented a case and pushed it, rather than solving the game.
Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum.
CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum.
ExO, I don't think your read on me is fair, and to some extent, it's my fault for hunting scum on my own rather than being engaged with town. I think that you are town, so I will explain to you exactly what my thought process was. I really need you and all remaining town to trust me, or at least take my reads seriously, because we all need to vote together tomorrow to lynch the mafia. Where I'm at right now is that TW and NU are the mafia, you are town, cakepie is town, hopeless is town, and obviously I am town. I have mainly pushed onto TW and NU because there are only two mafia, and it's most definitely those two. I think we can all agree that TW is mafia. I pushed onto NU many times and he's given me shoddy answers the first few times, and he's literally disappeared now and hasn't responded to anything else I posted. I posted a case on him that I want him to respond to, and I want all the town to consider as well, and so far, neither has happened. Also, nobody else has given a strong case against anybody else. Do you see why I have no reason to get off of those two? I haven't pushed much on anybody else besides TW and NU, but that doesn't mean I haven't been considering or caring about them. As for you, hopeless, and cake, there's a lot I like about your play, and a lot that I don't like, but there's little that I can point to and say "hmm, this play is really advancing the scum agenda, and scum would instinctively do this". I don't post townreads or speculative posts on people because me not being able to scumread someone doesn't mean someone else can't. If someone convinces me of a better option than TW or NU, I'm willing to reconsider. I should probably be more actively engaging with people, and that's my bad. I also feel that I'm being singled out for tunneling. If you look at other people's filters, Hopeless has been tunneling only on TW, cakepie has mostly been on TW and you, and you haven't been aggressive enough to even be considered for tunneling. So besides the fact that I literally said that I'm tunneling onto TW and NU, singling me out seems a little biased.
I don't think I can agree TW is mafia. I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game, and he's done some things that have looked scummy. But the type of posts he's made (particularly after #170), the big cases he posted, I don't think scum can fake that effort. A lot of people were tunneling him quite a bit but his reaction overall to that to me doesn't read scum now.
I feel like pointing out that I'm singling you out for tunneling (I don't think I am) isn't really a town thing to post. To me, it screams "look at all these other people they are doing something just as bad." I don't think tunneling is necessarily scum-indicative. But these 2 players are the only players you've said anything about all game. I practically challenge you to give a read on anybody else and you just can't. You're so sure of TW and NU that you're going to stick to them non stop....and I don't buy it as a town trait. I think you are a scum player who is going to stick to those reads come hell or high water. I mean look at your above post. "I think we can all agree TW is mafia: why? That's all you are going to offer here? And you're basically saying NU is scum because he gave some shoddy answers....but I don't see how that makes you lock in on scum so hard here. I don't see it. How are you so sure.
No I think it's much more likely you are scum.
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as a quick aside, NU very well could be scum, I'm not sure on him yet. I wish he were in the thread a little more, but I don't have a lot of room to talk in that regard.
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On December 09 2016 19:16 cakepie wrote: Hey craycray, anything for me?
What do you think of H1 specifically that EoD1 behavior - "i'd spite vote but won't" - unfair "pick one answer now" questions - voting after we've left off
I'm okay with you pushing NU.
I'd really like to see more people interact with H1 because H1 v TW doesn't give me a good baseline to evaluate H1 interactions with me.
When hopeless gets back, I would like to hear his answer for this:
On December 09 2016 07:51 Chairman Ray wrote: Also hopeless, why did you vote TW after cakepie and I rescinded?
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and as another aside, killing somebody yesterday is anti-town purely from a numbers perspective. 2/3 chance of guessing wrong and instantly losing, vs waiting a day, 3/5 chance of guessing wrong. Not to mention we get an extra day of information by waiting, and potentially cop's information (though fake claims could fuck this up).
I think the people voting yesterday are highly suspect. CR/Cakepike/H1D are all at the top of my suspicions. Voting yesterday was an anti-town play almost any way you look at it, in my opinion
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On December 09 2016 12:44 ExO_ wrote:Im sure cakepie will show up soon, and hopefully she can prepare her usual list of things for me to respond to. (Not sure where you got the idea that I'm female, I'm not.)
Outstanding things you haven't responded to me or elaborated about:- Why was TW town to you at #98
- Explain that part in #107 where you are skeptical of your read and couch it in terms of me making you feel obliged to find anything scummy at all on TW.
- in #161 you "largely agree" with my TW case -- what part(s) do you not agrees with?
Maybe this time I'll finally get those answers and elaboration from you, now that I've gone and collated the questions for you in one spot?
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On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote: I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game Easy for you to say this, very hard for me to see your progression and reasons. Can you filter TW for me and tell me which posts are scummy/towny to and why.
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