EPTOn December 06 2016 08:03 Chairman Ray wrote:
We got no medic save n0, so shouldn't cop claim come at day?
We got no medic save n0, so shouldn't cop claim come at day?
I guess...
[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot - Page 3
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
I guess... | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
On October 04 2016 08:50 batsnacks wrote: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/lMcX6I0.gif) ayy lmao | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On December 06 2016 09:33 NeverUnlucky wrote: I agree that cop should claim at day start, and I also think that the medic should claim. NO VT EVER CC's. Force 1 on 1 with mafia or have up to 3 confirmed town if cop gets a green check who lives through the night. as is we don't have to lynch anyone today (although LyLo is worse than MyLo) if we want to get extra info. we can use this to get one cop check tonight, one on N1, and if doc claims he will die N1 and cop dies N2 before 2v1 LyLo (assuming we make it that far...) | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
cop checks N0 (get conftown or redcheck) cop claims D1 (two conftown). lynch if redcheck cop checks N1 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop reveal check D2, doc claims D2 (four conftown). lynch if redcheck cop checks N2 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop, probably dies reveal check D3 (five conftown). lynch if redcheck so throughout the game we can confirm up to five players as town if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1. other possibilities are confirm 4 town and 1 mafia or 3 town and 2 mafia by D3. I guess if cop or doc dies tonight we just play like normal | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
Get the medic to claim D1. D1 - 3 c. town or 2 ctown, 1 mafia. N1 - 1 c.town dies D2 - 3 ctown, so 2 cmafia / 2 ctown, 1cmafia / 1 ctown, last cmafia GG in 2/3 scenarios. Your method is risking the cop to check the medic and thus losing in efficiency. My method is pro and should be sheeped =)))))) You still around? | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.giphy.com/l41lSoOlTm3gyLdXq.gif) | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1. 45% raw odds of fulfilling prerequisites for the plan, awesome! we can confirm up to five players as town sweet, even if no redchecks, we can find all five town by D3, which PoE the other two for confscum! good job! such plan much wow any NA still ard or am I stuck waiting for EU to wake up? | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
claiming Vanilla Town. Going back to PoE | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On December 06 2016 15:34 ExO_ wrote: Hi. claiming Vanilla Town. Going back to PoE ugh I hope this isn't "hi I'm VT bye" because night doesn't mean we can't play. especially when you won't get killed for your reads because N0 | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On December 06 2016 14:22 cakepie wrote: 45% raw odds of fulfilling prerequisites for the plan, awesome! sweet, even if no redchecks, we can find all five town by D3, which PoE the other two for confscum! good job! such plan much wow any NA still ard or am I stuck waiting for EU to wake up? pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. anyway even if the odds slightly favor us I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 06 2016 15:52 Tumblewood wrote: ugh I hope this isn't "hi I'm VT bye" because night doesn't mean we can't play. especially when you won't get killed for your reads because N0 And what if it is? | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote: pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. anyway even if the odds slightly favor us I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring Cop should 100% claim tomorrow, regardless of what happens. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote: In what number system?pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. I made absurdly town-favored assumptions and got 45%. Assume scum ignore blue claims and always blindly shoot into town at random. Night 0 scum kills 1/5 of us. 3/5 = 60% to hit VT, ensuring both doc and cop survive to Day 1. Assume no mislynch on Day 1. Night 1 scum kills 1/4 of us. 1/4 = 25% to hit doc, i.e. 75% for doc to survive to Day 2. Raw odds 75% * 60% = 45% overall to satisfy prereqs "of if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1" That's under the most town-favored set of assumptions. Even lower probability in any actual reality. I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring What a convenient thing to say now.On December 06 2016 07:48 Koshi wrote: If this was a rxn test, I hope you got what you wanted.Hi. Copclaim pls? | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
I am going to do nothing and see if mafia respect kills me. | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
I made absurdly town-favored assumptions and got 45%. Assume scum ignore blue claims and always blindly shoot into town at random. Night 0 scum kills 1/5 of us. 3/5 = 60% to hit VT, ensuring both doc and cop survive to Day 1. Assume no mislynch on Day 1. Night 1 scum kills 1/4 of us. 1/4 = 25% to hit doc, i.e. 75% for doc to survive to Day 2. Raw odds 75% * 60% = 45% overall to satisfy prereqs "of if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1" That's under the most town-favored set of assumptions. Even lower probability in any actual reality. I don't understand the town favored assumptions but the math is correct. (Except if the extreme town assumptions are that town won't fuck up, because, town will fuck up.) | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
Opportunities missed. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 06 2016 17:30 Koshi wrote: Oh no doc save N0. That makes more sense. I am going to do nothing and see if mafia respect kills me. If Koshi doesn't die tonight kill him tomorrow | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
On December 06 2016 18:33 ExO_ wrote: If Koshi doesn't die tonight kill him tomorrow So much respect in this sentence. I like it. Basically if you are town your thought process is: If mafia doesn't respect kill (The Great and Awesome) Koshi during N0, Koshi is always mafia. And I agree. I am pretty terrifying. | ||
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