[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot - Page 15

On December 08 2016 20:39 cakepie wrote:
Not explaining it now has a town motivation of denying information to scum. I don't see a need to explain everything now and give scum time to ponder over it. Town doesn't need my full explanation today (game D1, not real time), but will have it by tomorrow (that is to say, D2.) when it matters.

On December 07 2016 21:31 cakepie wrote:
I also believe I might have an inkling of what you typed out and deleted. Maybe we're thinking the same thing that we don't want to speak about yet.

On December 10 2016 07:10 cakepie wrote:
Hmmm.

On December 10 2016 07:12 NeverUnlucky wrote:

What are your checks?

Which of me/Ray do you have a green on? I'm guessing Ray because you don't want me to go after him?

On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote:

pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites.
anyway even if the odds slightly favor us I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring

On December 08 2016 12:19 Tumblewood wrote:
also funny th\t 1der's list of who to lynch is the reverse of mine, perfectly (except no lynch is still at the top ofc)

On December 08 2016 15:29 Tumblewood wrote:
idk I've only been around for a year but players who haven't played in a long time seem to be more anal than most. cakepie could be town but if so he's town that's really pissing me off. 1der too. if I had to guess it's between cakepie, 1der and ray because none of them have made me lean town at any point.

On December 09 2016 07:19 Tumblewood wrote:
tonight I will have a lot of time, which I will use to post extensive/organized reads (actually I have about 45 minutes to answer questions now).
given that I had two votes and no one hammered, we can eliminate the following scum teams:
ExO + NU
ExO + 1der
1der + NU
all other teams (there are 15 possible) would either need an extra town vote to hammer or include me. I strongly believe that both members of the scum team fall within cakepie, ray, and 1der.

On December 09 2016 09:22 Tumblewood wrote:
The case on Hopeless1der

Preamble
I plan on writing posts like this for each player still alive besides myself, going in order the filters are listed. This isn't necessarily an indictment but an analysis of each player and a reasoned guess to their alignment, trying to start from square one and not cloud my judgement with previous bias. I will not go through every post, but I will use quotes liberally.

The case for

• In this post, near the start, 1der is incredulous (and clarifies -- it's like the mafia equivalent of a double-take) in a way that mafia rarely are.
  
• This post + Show Spoiler [quoted] +
  On December 09 2016 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote:
  

  Show nested quote +
  

  On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote:
  ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler +

  turns out no one likes being lynched

  and because the line between "a regular amount" and "too much" is incredibly subjective

  
  
  
  

  Show nested quote +
  

  Incredibly subjective

  
  
  

  Show nested quote +
  

  not an argument for them being scum

  
  
  
  Pick one and proceed.
  is incredulous in a similar way, and good in a similar way, but also icky and bad in a way I will describe later.
  
• The threat 1der makes + Show Spoiler [near deadline] +
  On December 09 2016 04:47 Hopeless1der wrote:
  a little over 2 hours left today..TW if I dont get an answer in the next hour I'm voting you.
  to me reminds me of the threats I tend to make when I strongly want to vote someone (as town) but rationally know it is a poor play. The vote after is also part of this sentiment. Even if I don't agree with it, it's townie.

The case against

• N0 he made one post and left. The post + Show Spoiler [in question] +
  On December 07 2016 00:21 Hopeless1der wrote:
  Why are there suggestions for the cop to claim during D1? Why not end of N1 when theres a chance at 2 checks?
  asked a question to no one in particular and hardly seemed to seek out a response. Only one reason for this seems likely, which is that he wanted to avoid complete inactivity but had nothing to say. While town does this on occasion, it gives me pause because he seemed to care little about the answer to his question.
  
• Next day he initiated wanting to lynch me, but he didn't present any reasons of his own; he sheeped cakepie + Show Spoiler +
  On December 08 2016 03:27 Hopeless1der wrote:
  cakepie is it okay if I just sheep you today?
  and then when discussing other players left out anything on me because "most of the TW material has been covered". Sheeping is a safe way for mafia to attack town without arguing for themselves.
  
• 1der puts full trust into cakepie as town without ever discussing why (this is the first comment on cakepie's alignment: + Show Spoiler [but only barely] +
  On December 09 2016 04:12 Hopeless1der wrote:
  but really, thank you for putting in the work for town cakepie
  ). Town-tunneling is a real phenomenon, but it makes me uncomfortable; it feels more like he is hiding behind someone he can safely call town.
  
• 1der asks me to pick between two non-contradictory statements I made + Show Spoiler [right here] +
  On December 09 2016 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote:
  

  Show nested quote +
  

  On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote:
  ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler +

  turns out no one likes being lynched

  and because the line between "a regular amount" and "too much" is incredibly subjective

  
  
  
  

  Show nested quote +
  

  Incredibly subjective

  
  
  

  Show nested quote +
  

  not an argument for them being scum

  
  
  
  Pick one and proceed.

  
  
  and attacks me for choosing both, but fails to read and comprehend my words. It comes off as an attempt to get me lynched more than to get it right. By requiring one of two binary answers, provided by himself, he forced words into my mouth (and still, somehow, did not learn to read).

Verdict
Probable scum. There are reasons to believe 1der is not scum, but his game is so focused on getting me lynched (especially given his shortage of original reasons) that it is hard to see him as town.

On December 10 2016 09:01 NeverUnlucky wrote:
like, I don't see why cakepie would have fake-claimed cop at this point in time: he was in a good position in terms of being TR'd and was arguably the most influential player in the game. He could've easily diverted any lynch to the target of his choice, so long he convinces 1 town. It doesn't make sense for him to do so.

TW is in the top of most people's scum-reads so it makes perfect sense for him to all-in and hope he gets a ML / trades 1 for 1 with the cop and gets his partner to clean up in mylo