Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 8

On February 24 2015 13:21 Trfel wrote:
zlefin

1. We start knowing that zlefin's play is extremely cautious. I feel that his play generally fits what would be expected from an extremely cautious scum.

2. When I read this post at this time, it almost makes me wonder if he is being too suspicious to be town. I'm not sure that a town player in his first game would even consider the possibility of two mafia working together to be town read this early in the game. Any thoughts on this?

3. This post seems to be showing some suspicion to inactivity, which coincidentally includes mafia Silverarte. Note that he says that inactivity seems weird, but is probably not a sign of being scum. This could be a mafia being sure to show some suspicion of a scum buddy, but also being sure not to go too far with it.

4. This post is more of what I referenced in the first post I linked. I don't think it means anything, but I'm still interested in thoughts.

5. I don't know what to make of zlefin's original idea to lynch me for information. It's certainly unique, and I am not sure that scum would naturally think of doing this. That said, it has a good mafia motivation of doing something unique and it can potentially be used as a small excuse to not have better reads.

6. It still seems strange that zlefin asks people what he should do. It feels as if he is trying to make sure that his actions are considered correct by everyone else.

7. If zlefin agreed with my reasons that Hier could be town, why is he not considering finding a scum lynch instead? This seems strange.

8. Zlefin gave Silverarte -1 in his table. This seems a bit suspicious, like he is making sure not to give too much town credit to his scum buddy. It's perfectly fine to leave inactives at null.

9. I don't know what to think about posts like this. Thoughts? (the last one on the page)

10. This feels a bit too self-conscious.

11. I still think that this read on Silverarte is strange, and he seems to provide an incorrect judgement of Silverarte's filter while still leaving a lot of room for interpretation. He leaves a probe for other people's thoughts here, as if he wants to see if he is right. He did not do so for the above post linked about ElyAs.

12. By the time that zlefin made this post, The Shining's filter didn't feel that great. The Shining didn't provide many original reads in this time frame. Zlefin also seems committed to making a read on everyone, which seems odd.

13. This looks like zlefin trying to see if he is too easily connected with Silverarte. And the last sentence doesn't need to be added by a town!zlefin here.

14. Zlefin moved Silverarte from weak town to scum here. Then zlefin probed everyone for scumreads, and as a result, decided to vote for Silverarte. At this point, most everyone was scumreading Silverarte, so for a cautious zlefin, going for the bus here is the safe play and it is justified. Right before this, he probed the entire thread for reads, and he didn't seem to use those reads for anything other than this vote. Zlefin didn't seem to think that I was actually in danger of being lynched, and that is why he stuck to the bus.

15. Zlefin "has to recommend" voting for Silverarte over me. Has to? Bad wording for town!zlefin.

16. This post shows just far zlefin's stance on Silverarte is falling. When he gave her a favorable read earlier.

17. This post suggests that zlefin hasn't been paying attention to flips before this one, didn't realize that vanilla townie was a role, or both. Had zlefin received a vanilla townie role PM, that might have made him more likely to realize that vanilla townie is in fact a role.

18. This wording makes it seem that not only is zlefin going ahead with a pre-day lynch, he is refusing to consider alternatives and is removing himself from blame should it go wrong.

On February 25 2015 13:05 jarjarbinks wrote:
Notes on Zlefin:
General Play: Tends to scumread the average person about 2.35 times compared to townreading them and about 1.5 times more than he defends himself. He made a total of 114 reads on people.

People: Top people he made reads on (proportionally per phase)
1. Hier
2. Silver
3. JJB
4. Tere
5. Trf
6. Rso
7. Shining
8. Ely

I find many things interesting about this. First, look at the top four people, all the lynched people. Also, look at the bottom. His top scumread (at the time before his flip) and townread (at the time before his flip) are AT THE BOTTOM.


His Scum/Townread Ratio:

1. Shining (4)
2. Trf (3.33)
3. Tere (3)
4. Ely (3)
5. Silver (2.33)
6. Me (1.14)
7. Rso (1)
8. Hier (1)

Things that Bother Me (I feel this is much stronger):

1. I generally considered Hier to be on zlefin’s “top scum” list D1 with Rso on his “top town” list D1. Why did he read them the same way?
2. Why would Ely be his top scumread when he made the least amount of reads (per phase) on him? I know Ely wasn’t an active player, but still.
3. Silver was at about the average for the Scum/Townread Ratio, despite being his #2 target for making reads. Which means that he talked about silver a lot, but didn’t really lean to far one way or another (compared to average) on making silver look bad. If I could bold this point I would. It looks like he is making sure he is talking about silver enough, but not scumming her more than he should. Yet he bussed the vote.
4. His top four people (mentioned above) are all guys he wants to lynch. This shows that he isn’t really providing too many reads outside what he absolutely has to. A prime example to follow this up is Day 3 with killing Tere/Palmer.

On February 25 2015 12:21 jarjarbinks wrote:
Posting my case on Trf. I need to go back and fix zlefin's numbers since I last posted and make his case more clear.

Zlef if you are around, please try to answer what Trf did about categories. I think I can generally make solid conclusions here, but I am prone to mistakes. Not giving you the opportunity to alleviate a mistake of mine would be biased and unfair.

On February 25 2015 20:53 zlefin wrote:

I'm unclear what you're asking for here, since you're asking it prior to your other new lengthy posts, so I'm not sure if those factored this in or not.
I'll reread the section to see if I can figure out what you're looking for.

On February 25 2015 13:35 jarjarbinks wrote:
I'm off to bed. I will be back about 1-2 hours before EOD. Sorry if this puts things in a bad position, but after work I will come straight home to help answer questions and put general thoughts on Trf's cases. I can't say much to Zlef's to defend myself, so I won't unless he posts another case on me.

On February 25 2015 23:59 Trfel wrote:
Jarjarbinks, some questions for you.

Why is the case that I bused Silverarte weak?
Why does my read analysis look good? Just because of the large number of reads?

My usage of my vote is poor. I haven't been very good at using my vote to pressure, so I mostly just wait until I'm sure who I want to lynch and vote for them then.

Zlefin, in Night 3 you listed the percentages for each player being scum. With Palmar dead, I have the highest remaining percentage. Why did you not vote for me?

On February 26 2015 01:31 Trfel wrote:
Zlefin, I believe that you said that you read all of the TL mafia guides. However, these guides also say that lynching for information is almost always a terrible idea. Several times on day 1 you mentioned lynching for information.

Please explain?