EPT/in
Newbie Mini Mafia LXI
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
/in | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
So far my reads are mostly neutral, with a slight town read on trfle and a slight scum read on jarjar. Also, I tend to shorten people's names, they'll still be recognizable, I just wanted people to know that. How long should we give people to post? I figure I'll give people 12 hours from game start to post, which is enough time for a long sleep for anyone. Anyone who hasn't posted by then I'll mark as suspicious, and consider policy lynching. But if people have suggestions for another wait time, by all means. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
For Trfel, it's partly a tonal read, and partly that he's encouraging discussion and trying to get things going. So he's either town, or a well-played (and hence dangerous) scum. For jarjar, it's just an impression, I can't really explain why. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
It is however generating discussion which is useful. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
I'm inclined to take the prior page of discussion as minor evidence of Hier and Rsoultin being town. For Hier, it seems like too complicated a plan for a scum to want to put forth. for rsoultin he was putting forth good reasons for town to dislike the plan with good analysis. Or it could be a plot by the two of them (both being scum) to make themselves both look like town through such an exchange. So I want to make a note of possible link between the two. I think this very unlikely though. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
While I'm inclined to policy lynch for inactivity, such a degree of inactivity in a newbie game with coaches (where they'd be warned of the risks of inactivity), seems like it'd more be a sign of someone not actually trying or being busy IRL than of being scum. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
While I recognize it was done in jest, I still dislike this statement, it feels scummy to say such a thing, even as a joke. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 16 2015 14:53 Hier wrote: By the way, for the sake of pronoun consistency, as I understand it, rsoultin, The Shining, and Mimeux are women, and the rest are men. Is that right? Apologies if I am making a mistake. just wanted to say I tend to forget such details, and default to male pronouns in online conversations, apologies about that if it happens. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 16 2015 15:17 Hier wrote: I just don't know how far my lexicon can take me reiterating my own accusations, and I don't really see the point when you'll just rebuke it my saying I misinterpreted your quotes, thus creating a nucleus for a completely unnecessary discussion. But if you really really really want I'll do so in the morning. It's getting late here too, and tomorrow is a holiday here, so I'll have time. I would like it if you did that, I find this post of yours feels scummy to me. It feels like a lot of blather, and needlessly fanc y words (admittedly something I tend to do myself), that say very little and amount to a post that doesn't really add anything. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
Trfel 1/1 Shining rsoultin 1/1 elyas jarjar -2/2 mimeux hier 0/2 silver with mimeux out, and his replacement not yet in, I don't expect to get enough information on the replacement to have a read on them by voting time. I remain concerned about silver having no posts on the first real life day, and overall activity level. Now I gotta go back, find jarjars question to answer it, and then maybe review the people I don't have any read on to see if I can find something. my current lynch candidates are jarjar, hier, silver, trfel. The reason for trfel is that I feel trfel is a high information lynch. If he's scum, he's a skilled scum; and there's a lot of discussion between trfel and others, if I could go back through those discussions with the lynch knowledge of his alignment, I think that would provide a lot of other leads one way or the other. I think it would provide more information than anyone else's lynch. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 16 2015 01:02 jarjarbinks wrote: Could you use a quote or something to explain Trf's? no, I cannot. It wasn't a read from a single post, or two posts, unlike a fair portion of my mild reads; it was a gestalt impression of all his posts up until the time I'd made that post. Was this the question you wanted answered? Please be sure to confirm yes/no. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
I have a strategy question: do I mild scumread Shining for accusing me (since I know I'm town)? My impression is that I should not, in this case at least, but I'd like to hear from other people. Hmm, I'm gonna have to remember Bayes rule and see if I can get it do something useful on that question. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 16 2015 22:39 Silverarte wrote: Sorry friends, I completely fell asleep last night >< I'll take the sleepiness into account Trfel.  Though, when you're around again, let me know what you think without all of the sleepiness there?As far as Shining goes, I can see your point. I didn't see what made the case on Zlefin, particularly since Zle's filter looked null to me at that time. I'd say the oddest thing to me here is that you being potentially scumread for walls of text. Those make it hard to read sometimes true, but I proved my only other game then and now that I do those too. Personally, I'd like to see more from Shining. I saw where you are coming from, but I don't feel he's a D1 lynch. And actually, I'd like to see everyone's thought here too. @zlefin I appreciate the concern about activity and all that, but remember. I live in the US and I posted my schedule up. On Saturdays, I work for ten hours then went out for Valentines out here. While I appreciate activity might signify something, at the same time, understanding for the holiday I feel should be in there somewhere too. Now, that said and behind us, my question for you is this. The scumread list you gave, can I ask what gives you the thoughts that Jarjar and Hier are on the lynch list. Also, if I'm reading the way you have that list right, Rsoultin is on the lynch list too, is that correct? (It's the points I'm trying to sort out). rsoultin is not on my lynch list, the lynch list was separate and later in the post. The points are positive indicate town reads, negative is scum reads. denominator is total reads one way or the other. I don't maintain a list of where each point comes from, though reasons for the majority of them will be somewhere in my filter with me saying something; others are more impressions over several posts or a large discussion. I suppose I should be more thorough in tracking them. I am giving some understanding for holiday, but it still seems odd to not find the time to put in a post or two even if you can't do a full thread read. I'm a person with plenty of time, so I tend to view others through the same lens. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 17 2015 00:26 rsoultin wrote: I disagree with this, zle, based solely on the fact that if you read Truffle's post to JJB it was a joke in response to a joke. Unless you believe that Truffle actually meant his "town can never be wrong so you're scum" comment  I did read the earlier post, and recognize it's likely to be a joke in response to a joke, I still don't like it though. And it's not like I have piles of reads to work with, so I'll take what I can get. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 17 2015 00:02 Trfel wrote: Hi Tere. On Hier, for now I am thinking that he is more likely to be town than scum. There is a definite difference between bad play and mafia, and while I don't see Hier's play as being particularly beneficial to town, I don't really see it being mafia-motivated. Just want to be clear on what you're saying: you're saying you have a town read on him, which, given the baseline probability of 77% of him being town, you're placing the odds of him being town at higher than that? I ask because the statement "more likely to be town than scum" would technically be true of someone who had a 51% chance of being town. | ||
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