
I saw Jarjar will only be back about an hour before daybreak. I would very much like to hear from the Shining and ElyAs soon.
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Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
![]() I saw Jarjar will only be back about an hour before daybreak. I would very much like to hear from the Shining and ElyAs soon. | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
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Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
![]() This works in my favour, as I will be veeery useful to town should I survive the night. More revealed after daybreak ![]() Still waiting on Jarjar and the Shining to weigh in ![]() | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
![]() Terry, or Tehreh, I don't really mind. It's short for an old web handle, and it just stuck. | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
![]() This is where my head is at, towny to scummy. Towny Tere I'm the towniest town who ever towned, so pfft! ![]() rsoultin I am still liking her relaxed approach. Reading the other game where she is town, the filter flow is very very similar. There might be confbias there because in some ways her approach is quite similar to mine, but I am comfortable with her and happy to work with her. Trfel - I am still OK with a towny read on Trfel. I thought his push and case building on me was good, and his response to my response was also nice and relaxed. I like that he's holding back from a hard scumpush on me despite reservations and that he's still quite comfortable to reach out and engage with me. I had a read through his town and scum filters and this filter reads to me far more like his town filter than his scum one. His scum one was all about attempting to find lynch targets (read anyone else but him, lol, at least on a skim through), his conftown filter and this current filter feel much more like trying to solve the puzzle. I am happy to work with him. Leaning town, don't lynch for now Jarjarbinks. Jarjar still has a free and easy quality I like in his posts - plus to a certain extent I am giving my townread rsoultin's opinion on her brother some credence. Looking at his filter from when he was town before, there's quite a few similarities - the main difference is less emphasis on probability, which I see if anything as town positive - an attempt to change play to be more understandable to others based on given feedback. I think he could reach out a little more but overall I'm liking what I am seeing here. zlefin: As you can see, zlefin has gone up several notches in my estimation. I feel that he is trying to modify his play to make it more understandable to others and is taking care now to explain his points system. I feel he is working towards the goal of solving the game. I liked that he was comfortable stepping up to me and giving his reads, that's a relaxed stance that I would not expect from newbie scum in their first game despite the coaching support. There's lots of little tells that have made me feel better about him in the last few hours that have felt unforced. Silverarte: I feel quite a bit better about her having read her Cop first game - I feel there's enough similarities with her availability and posting style to calm any qualms about that being an excuse and skating. When she's had the opportunity to contribute I feel she has done so in a town positive way. Lynchpool for tomorrow: OK, here's where my two bullets would go: ElyAs: - I really liked what zlefin said about his filter feeling empty, I think that's a really good way to phrase it. He's focussed on what now could I think be seen as the two easy mislynch targets, but given himself room to back away if needed. Very little of what he has saying has been impactful for me. This is a filter I will be looking hard at tomorrow, if I have the chance. The Shining: If I had but one bullet, it would go here. I disliked his intro, and, while I thought there were a few positive posts day 1, I felt his defensive post looked, well, defensive. His response to Trfel's case on him looked a bit better but I wouldn't town read him for it, scum need to survive, town don't. I've seen very little else from him that has stuck in my mind. He moved his vote very late to sheep... someone? He's contributed almost nothing in the night phase. I would be looking hard at him tomorrow. Anyway, I need to take a nap, and might not be back before daybreak, but that's OK, I've concluded enough for what I need to do this evening ![]() | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
Night night. Bedwards I go, it was a late night last night. | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
Important point: IF ANYONE IS THINKING OF CLAIMING BASED ON WHAT I AM DOING PLEASE DON'T UNTIL I HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TYPE ALL THIS UP K THANKS First off, vote analysis Day 1: Hier wagon: rsoul's first on with a decent yolo wagon start. Looked towny at the time, and lo, so she was. Silverarte's next on, after a succession of prodding posts at Hier about his lack of reads. The progression to the vote looks very unforced and natural to me, and town points I think. Have a look for yourself: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=15#294 ElyAs and I are next on, almost at the same time - if you look I reference his vote post in passing on my own, as I saw it whilst preparing my own post. ElyAs posts what looks very much like a placeholder vote on Hier - his main points being his confusing language, also picked up on at that point by zlefin, and some concern that the model is sowing chaos not spreading it. He says he will revisit once Hier starts looking at somebody else. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=16#301 This doesn't really happen, most of the rest of his filter till EOD is saying he doesn't like the vote but not really offering counterwagons. Tere: I'm next up. My main bones of contention with Hier is not his model per se, but his insistence that he will stick to it regardless, an easy thing to hide behind for scum, and his lack of willingness to provide reads. While I indicate the need for a counterwagon, I'm reasonably confident in my scumread, particularly when he comes back into thread and doesn't start being helpful. I stay on him till EOD. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=16#307 Trfel starts off more ambivalent on Hier, moving to a flash of irritation with him at his lack of reads here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=13#250, with a bit more followup here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=14#276 He pops down his vote on Hier after quite a lot of angst about mislynching and lack of counterwagons before popping a placeholder vote on Hier in case he isn't back at deadline, torturing himself about it until Nightfall. The flow of it all plus my more general read on him look like angsting town to me. zlefin's next. Completely new player, remember? His initial lynchpool based on his plus/ minus system is jarjar, hier, silver (for inactivity), and trfel. He thinks he should lynch trfel for info. Wonky reasoning IMO but new player. Note he says he's giving my slot a free pass until N1. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=15#290 He leans more to voting Hier later on http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=18#347. Later posts about trfel indicate that he's still thinking about lynching in terms of lynching for information - this isn't a scumtell to me, just a new player tell. (@zlefin it's not always a horribad idea in larger games IMO, but in a 7 v 2 game you are struggling with having minimal mislynches). He's moving towards voting for Hier here but aware it's a vote that doesn't contribute much and is probing as to what would give better information: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=22#436 - a couple of folk have found that scummy I think, but I actually find that reaching out quite towny. Finally votes Hier as he needs sleep. All in all I think that looks OK for a new player, I am not seeing the scummy in that. The Shining: pushes a fairly weak read in zlefin a little here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=10#183, asks why no-one is responding to it. There's a defensive post that he and zlef couldn't be scumbuddies here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=13#242 then lays a vote on him for what I see as fairly weak reasons here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=13#245. He unvotes when he returns to thread, mainly concerning himself with a defence against Trfel's case, then votes Hier at the last minute, saying he's sheeping his strongest townread, later clarified as rsoul. Weaksauce. OK - I think the people on that wagon who look like town are rsoul (flipped), Silverarte, Trfel, and zlefin. I know I am town, although clearly some people have some sort of problem with me jumping straight in with a vote and rationale on Hier. I think a case based on that is quite lame, if I'm honest - I was reading the game anyway, and I received the request to sub in at 4.30 a.m. my time, had a few hours that I used to reread and think through my initial reactions, and was simply waiting until I received my PM to place my main scumread. I would also point out that I was highly unlikely to be the Day 1 lynch, I'd already been given a pass by one person in the thread, and it would have been easy as pie as scum to say in the thread "hi guyz, sorry I can't catch up in the next few hours, gl have fun see you N1" and get a free pass. Charging in and putting oneself in the midst of the fray with less than 9 hours to go before nightfall doesn't play to a scum wincon, and I honestly don't know what to say to you if you think it does. Putting myself aside, the two people I think have weaker voting behaviour there are ElyAs (a placeholder vote which he never gets back to really) and The Shining (weak push on a new player that's easy meat, late move to Hier saying he's sheeping his main wagon). Really dude? Really? (Please also note the The Shining says rsoultin is his main townread here when thinking about the NK, also). zlefin's wagon: Poor lonely Jarjar! ![]() OK, all of that looks very towny to me - fits his play and his previous town game to a T, and I really understand the mental progression here. I can't mindmeld with jarjar as he plays such a different way to me, but I can understand how this makes sense from the perspective of a town jarjar. Conclusion: From all that, the most town unfriendly votes for me are ElyAs and The Shining. | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
It will become clear I'm serious about this when I get to my suggestion as to what we do today in a bit. Onwards. | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
Rsoultin was killed by a Minecraft Creeper. I've never watched South Park (Shut up, I know, lol) and I can't really determine much flavour to help us see if it's the scum kill or a vig but in the absence of a vig claim (and a vig on rsoul would have been bonkers IMO) I think we go with it being the scum kill. Doesn't look like TL Mafia uses much flavour analysis to help with newbie games anyway, it's more just a bit of fun. (BTW, I think it's hilarious that all the Vanilla Towns are Kenny, well played :D) I'm actually not going to say too much about this as I don't particularly want to get bogged down with it - NKs can generate immense amounts of wifom. Reasons that rsoultin might have been the NK. 1. The simplest and most obvious one - rsoultin was I think reading the most towny to pretty much all of us apart from Hier. Certainly Hier's attempt at a wagon got absolutely no traction. Occam's would suggest that, and it basically gives us no lean on scum. Interestingly The Shining does make it clear that she's his strongest townread and sheeps her. 2. Someone in rsoultin's friendship group is scared of her sussing them out. This would appear to be a smaller group of jarjarbinks, Silverarte and The Shining. I haven't gone back and looked at her filter in depth yet, but from memory the only one of that group she expressed doubt on was the Shining. 3. Rsoul caught other scum and it was a fearkill. Unlikely, I don't remember other strong reads from her if I'm honest. Her will was posted very late so scum wouldn't have had time to react. I can't recall the timing requirements for night actions offhand but I imagine there's a set time beforehand they have to be in by. 4. Scum want to push for a lynch on me today, and Rsoul was my strongest supporter. It's possible, but if so I really don't care. Why will become apparent when I post today's suggested plan. I did note The Shining's push against Trfel as being the likely source of the NK and thought that was very interesting. I don't really feel the need to get into that right now, save to say that I think Trfel's defence of that holds water. Interesting that The Shining pushed it though. So it's 1 or 2 for me. Not much info to glean from that IMO. It's worth a look back at rsoul's filter if you are unsure. I may do that later. | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
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Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
Onwards. | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
First off, I am not claiming anything right now, and don't intend to as yet, as claiming my role would be detrimental to town. If that generates into a bunch of meaningless WIFOM that kills the thread and nothing will get done until you stop yelling at me I will, but I can assure you that outing my role won't be town helpful and I won't do that unless forced to. Important point repeated again: IF ANYONE IS THINKING OF CLAIMING BASED ON WHAT I AM DOING PLEASE DON'T. Claim for your own reasons, for sure, but don't claim because of my activities. I will, however, answer the question on why I mixed things up in nightchat and poked everyone for their two scumreads. 1. The easy bit first. Hi, I'm Tere. My meta this game is super aggro town, if you don't believe me now, you will on my flip. Scum are susceptible to WIFOM too. I love annoying scum. Hi scum! ![]() 2. I've been accused of not scumhunting. Well, for me this is some scumhunting activity. Scum really don't like to be tied down to decisive positions, in general. I'm almost less bothered by the actual answer than the attitude towards giving an answer. To me a major town tell is a relaxed position and a willingness to give reads and be flexible about them. There's a freedom and spontaneity to playing town and giving opinions that isn't there with scum, as the wincon is so different. Town can play offensive, scum, of necessity, need to have a defensive element to them. What I'm looking for here is a relaxed approach to giving opinions. Scum have to watch being caught out. Town don't need to do that. (n.b. if anyone who is town lynches me based on the terribad reason that Hier placed a vote on me, I am going to laugh at you in post game. Dead town don't gain powers of oracle infallibility, and Hier's proven misread on rsoultin should demonstrate that). So, what did I find out, and what do I think about it? (Here's where my play starts, with my current lynchpool at the time. I plop it in and head to bed, more or less: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=29#577. I push it again when I get up here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=32#623) zlefin: Tere and Jarjar http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=32#628 I really like this response, it comes very quickly, only 20 mins after I poke him directly seeing him in thread, and feels very unforced. Town points to zlefin here. His poking at me about WTF I am doing feels OK too: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=32#637 silverarte: Tere and zlefin. Silver feels relaxed in the way she produces these options, and posts a decent rebuttal of why she doesn't want to be asked. It doesn't feel defensive or forced. This looks OK here. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=33#649 I like her asking why not one bullet a bit less, as the results show, I have good reasons for asking for two reads apart from there being two scum less, and just one read wouldn't have given me anywhere as near as much information. But it's not enough for me to see that as a scumtell. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=36#715 Trfel: No answer - Trfel starts out by expressing confusion at WTF I am doing and why I hadn't done it myself here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=31#614 (as an aside, please don't scumread me for being asleep fairly soon after day and night ends that end at midnight my time, that would be lovely). He then posts his discomfort and thinks I am fishing in order that I can place the kills (because he's seen Artanis do this as mafia) here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=33#642. He scumreads me a little more strongly for this here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=33#648. There's some form of impenetrable chat with rsoultin about a point on an observation board somewhere, which Trfel will need to explain if he's convinced that whatever is on that board is relevant, but after further thought he seems to discount it. His response to me saying he really doesn't want to play looks OK, though, calm, measured - he's not lost down a rabbit hole somewhere. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=35#687 He never answers but hislast will and testament puts lynchpool at Tere, ElyAs, Silverarte (maybe jarjar) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=38#749 On the face of it the refusal looks bad but I think the way he handles it looks OK. He's clearly worrying about some game I have no meta for so meh. I can't see why it would be so OMG critical to get two names out for scum and certainly I wouldn't need to do so to place a NK. It's not inherently scummy, he's just got his knickers in a twist about something. rsoultin: No answer - she grasps what I am doing I think, tells me to put my big girl pants on ![]() ![]() ![]() ElyAs: Tere and zlefin http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=36#711 . I don't really like this as much - he's deliberately distancing himself while giving the reads and does so further when I point out immediately after that I was voting and posting at basically the same point as him on the bandwagon. Tere: The Shining and ElyAs. I get bored with waiting on The Shining and post my WOT of reads here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=37#723 The Shining: Tere and ElyAs. Comes straight in with an attack on me and flat out refuses to divulge top two scumreads until after EON. Not massively friendly. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=37#725. He eventually gives two picks after rsoultin probes him for it here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=37#736. I have to say I really don't like his reentry into the thread, his general defensiveness, his attacks on Trfel in particular. I think rsoultin has a genuine point about him Beetlejuicing and anyone who has also played scum with him before should consider her POV. No likey. Jarjarbinks: ElyAs and Tere: Jarjar hops on and quite quickly gives a promise he'd get to the shot question before EON, that looks very unforced and relaxed to me. He writes a very brief shot confirm just before EON http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=38#747. He posts thoughts about ElyAs after daybreak here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=38#759 and about me here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=39#771 . The timing of this stuff looks fine and the cases look relaxed. Town points from me, I also liked his presence in the thread in general after daybreak. Conclusion as to scumteam? Well, its pretty obvious to me - The Shining and ElyAs look the worst coming out of all of that. Since that also meshes with what I've felt from other parts of their filter I am comfortable with that. Other conclusion? Well, it's pretty obvious that everybody finds me scummy. I find this laughable, as as far as I am concerned I am happily playing aggro town, and the fact that everybody finds me scummy should be a decent clue that perhaps I am not. ![]() | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
On February 18 2015 12:44 Trfel wrote: Show nested quote + 1. It's not WIFOM because Hier was lynched, not night killed. Given the nature of the lynch, the best you can take from this is that Hier was scumreading Tere. There's not much else to be said here.On February 18 2015 11:00 jarjarbinks wrote: I'm not gonna lie, I am less confident in this one. Tere: 1: Hier voted for Tere: This is definitely WIFOM. This is also based on numbers I've seen and will be hard to explain, but I will try my best. WIFOM reads are generally perceived as 50-50. From what I have seen in previous (non-newbie games), WIFOM reads from town are actually decent reads on average. Better than 50-50. Especially the reads where the dead townie voted for someone on his/her own. This is great (and you could say hard for me to prove) but you do have to ask yourself if Hier was simply retaling (if forgot the acronym) Tere's aggressive lynch or if he was on to something. I honestly think Hier believed in his vote, which makes me think Tere is more suspicious. 2. Sometimes Tier has been unresponsive to rather simple or weak pokes at her. I've never played with her before and she could play this way as town, but I think this is suspicious. I think this argument has been made by others, so I won't dive too hard, but it is suspicious. 3. Tere was in the bandwagon group, at least to begin with, but then went hard on Hier as time went on. In my eyes, this shows she acted the most like town of the four (Tere, Trf, Silver, Elyas). I put her in this group because she initially bandwagonned. Making a caveat to my own biases, I perceived her to act like my sister due to the first few posts she's made. I will try not to do that in the future. 2. It's probably best for townies not to respond to weak pokes. If townies are too caught up in defending every single suspicion someone raises against them, not only does that detract from their own scumhunting, but it distracts the entire thread. On the contrary, I actually felt that she was a bit too responsive to my suspicions of her when I admitted they were unfounded in the exact same post. Since End of Day, many people have expressed suspicions of Tere, and she has just said that all will be clear after the Day post. Tere's next few posts will probably be extremely crucial in reading her. Tere, I am very much awaiting an explanation for your posting during the night. You've been hinting at something. Time to reveal. Anyone there who wants to chat? Trfel, if you are town, can you please not bloody do this, it's very irritating. My response to you yesterday probably took an hour of my time by the time I'd fucked about with the formatting to make it readable. You made it very clear in your initial post that you wanted a response from me, I took the time and trouble to craft it, and your response is to scumread me for it further. I don't have the time to play this game 24/7, and behaving like this if you are town makes me not want to work with you. That's compounded by you simply saying "That's not good enough", laying a lame vote on me and sodding off just now. I'm now up to 4 hours time spent in the thread post daybreak, with more to come. If this is what you are going to do, I don't see why I should put the effort in, quite frankly, particularly given I'm being universally scumread right now. I should just let you guys mislynch me, AFK, and troll you in the deadboard. Not impressed right now. | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
On February 19 2015 00:23 Trfel wrote: Show nested quote + I'm sorry, I thought you were done (misinterpreted what you were saying, I guess). You're still posting reasoning/explanations. Carry on then.On February 18 2015 22:31 Trfel wrote: Not good enough. ##vote Tere (I need to leave now, but that's left a bit ambiguous for a reason) I said I was posting up a bunch of WOTs in the first sentence, not impressed with you right now. | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
On February 19 2015 00:28 Half the Sky wrote: Show nested quote + On February 18 2015 22:23 Tere wrote: Rsoultin was killed by a Minecraft Creeper. I've never watched South Park (Shut up, I know, lol) and I can't really determine much flavour to help us see if it's the scum kill or a vig but in the absence of a vig claim (and a vig on rsoul would have been bonkers IMO) I think we go with it being the scum kill. Doesn't look like TL Mafia uses much flavour analysis to help with newbie games anyway, it's more just a bit of fun. Normally I don't do this, but for the sake of information for everyone, I am going to step in here and clarify now for everyone. I have clarified in my veteran game (link) that my storylines are for flavour purposes only and no interpretation of my storyline will or should ever determine anyone's alignment. I deliberately write as such to prevent any WIFOM and any other pro-flavour host from what I've seen does the same. This is the case here as it would be in a normal veteran game. The only time I ever reveal or even write about players personally in a storyline is when they are getting flipped (from lynch, NK, etc). That's what I suspected, Half the Sky, but thanks for clarifying ![]() (It's still hilarious that VT are Kennies, though :D) | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
Right. Hi. I am Tere, and everyone in the game is currently finding me scummy. This should be a clue that perhaps I am not, but hey. I would rarely if ever recommend a mislynch for information, but this might be a point (take note, zlefin ![]() Town needs to not be lazy and you are trying to catch two scum. You need two sensible thought out and thought through counterwagons, one a direct counterwagon to me, the other for shenannieing onto as and when the counterwagon fakeclaims if scum. I want to see everyone doing the thought experiment that I am telling the truth and am town, and following it through. Please note I do not intend to make any last minute blue claims. If you want to vote for me, that's fine, too, but I want to see a REAL reason for it, not something daft like Hier's vote placement, and I want to see a backup plan as to the next two people in your lynchpool. If you mislynch me today, and a NK goes through tonight, you have one more mislynch by my reckoning, and then into save by power role. So you need to make this day count, regardless. It's probably clear as to where I want my counterwagon to be, one of ElyAs and The Shining. I almost don't want to post anything more about that right now to minimise WIFOM. You can read my read list from N1 but for now I am going to leave it there. Good luck. | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
So you need to make this day count, guys. | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
You'd better make it good, Silver... Also I was just about to say that I wasn't ready to weigh in mightily, given that only Trfel, ElyAs and zlefin had posted since my mega WOT, and I wanted to hear what others had to say clean, without giving cues. I guess I will let Silver collect herself and post. In the meantime I did have a few thoughts on what's gone on since my WOTs. I'll work on those. | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
On February 19 2015 00:23 Trfel wrote: Show nested quote + I'm sorry, I thought you were done (misinterpreted what you were saying, I guess). You're still posting reasoning/explanations. Carry on then.On February 18 2015 22:31 Trfel wrote: Not good enough. ##vote Tere (I need to leave now, but that's left a bit ambiguous for a reason) I was going to honeybadger you for this, given I'd said there was plenty more to come, but then you apologised later and said you missed that sentence, so I am chalking this up to sleepy Trfel and giving you the benefit of the doubt for the moment. These things happen, I've misread enough as town that I'm not going to crucify you for it. null read. Carry on. ![]() | ||
Tere
United Kingdom225 Posts
On February 19 2015 00:55 Trfel wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On February 19 2015 00:29 Tere wrote: Before I get on to a suggestion for today's play, I just want to respond briefly to what I've bolded here: Show nested quote + On February 18 2015 12:44 Trfel wrote: On February 18 2015 11:00 jarjarbinks wrote: 1. It's not WIFOM because Hier was lynched, not night killed. Given the nature of the lynch, the best you can take from this is that Hier was scumreading Tere. There's not much else to be said here.I'm not gonna lie, I am less confident in this one. Tere: 1: Hier voted for Tere: This is definitely WIFOM. This is also based on numbers I've seen and will be hard to explain, but I will try my best. WIFOM reads are generally perceived as 50-50. From what I have seen in previous (non-newbie games), WIFOM reads from town are actually decent reads on average. Better than 50-50. Especially the reads where the dead townie voted for someone on his/her own. This is great (and you could say hard for me to prove) but you do have to ask yourself if Hier was simply retaling (if forgot the acronym) Tere's aggressive lynch or if he was on to something. I honestly think Hier believed in his vote, which makes me think Tere is more suspicious. 2. Sometimes Tier has been unresponsive to rather simple or weak pokes at her. I've never played with her before and she could play this way as town, but I think this is suspicious. I think this argument has been made by others, so I won't dive too hard, but it is suspicious. 3. Tere was in the bandwagon group, at least to begin with, but then went hard on Hier as time went on. In my eyes, this shows she acted the most like town of the four (Tere, Trf, Silver, Elyas). I put her in this group because she initially bandwagonned. Making a caveat to my own biases, I perceived her to act like my sister due to the first few posts she's made. I will try not to do that in the future. 2. It's probably best for townies not to respond to weak pokes. If townies are too caught up in defending every single suspicion someone raises against them, not only does that detract from their own scumhunting, but it distracts the entire thread. On the contrary, I actually felt that she was a bit too responsive to my suspicions of her when I admitted they were unfounded in the exact same post. Since End of Day, many people have expressed suspicions of Tere, and she has just said that all will be clear after the Day post. Tere's next few posts will probably be extremely crucial in reading her. Tere, I am very much awaiting an explanation for your posting during the night. You've been hinting at something. Time to reveal. Anyone there who wants to chat? Trfel, if you are town, can you please not bloody do this, it's very irritating. My response to you yesterday probably took an hour of my time by the time I'd fucked about with the formatting to make it readable. You made it very clear in your initial post that you wanted a response from me, I took the time and trouble to craft it, and your response is to scumread me for it further. I don't have the time to play this game 24/7, and behaving like this if you are town makes me not want to work with you. That's compounded by you simply saying "That's not good enough", laying a lame vote on me and sodding off just now. I'm now up to 4 hours time spent in the thread post daybreak, with more to come. If this is what you are going to do, I don't see why I should put the effort in, quite frankly, particularly given I'm being universally scumread right now. I should just let you guys mislynch me, AFK, and troll you in the deadboard. Not impressed right now. 1. First of all, I apologize for the formatting being difficult. I tried to put it in a formatting that was easy to read. In the future, if anyone wants to respond to me, they may feel free to put it in whatever formatting is easiest for them, I am more than happy to read a response in potentially poor formatting. That was not my intention at all. I do appreciate you spending a lot of time on this game, for the record, I've been spending a lot of time on it too. It took me over an hour to type the post in question as well. As to why I voted you, I had maybe two minutes before I had to leave for class. I read your posts, saw night kill analysis and voting analysis (which I considered weak*), and no explanation of your strange behavior as of late. Therefore, I placed a vote for you. Note that this vote was pressure, not a firm vote, you can sort of tell that by the sentence in parentheses underneath the vote. I missed the sentences where you said that you were not done. Bad play by me? Yes. Uncalled for? Yes. Can we move on? I hope so. Ironically, my intention was exactly the same as what you suggested (and for basically the same reasons). 2. *I believe that the voting analysis and night kill analysis you provided are weak (not your fault, they are quite good for the little material to work with). However, what I did not realize is that you were providing an extremely comprehensive thought process including analysis of everything possible, which naturally would include a voting analysis and a night kill analysis, however strong/weak. Therefore, the voting and night kill analysis make perfect sense and are appreciated. I will not lynch for information. I don't think that is a good idea at all. And yes, if we mislynch today, we are on LYLO, and I do not like that prospect. 1. I didn't have a problem with the post format as a concept, and agree it's a decent way to format a case for others to read so it's not terrifying. What would have made it much easier to answer is if you'd numbered the points rather than bulleted them, and I'd recommend something like that going forward, because it really was a PITA to navigate all those tags. This goes for everyone, BTW - if you want someone to respond to a complex case, please make it easy for them. A less motivated and stubborn person than myself might have just AFKed the post, which wouldn't have been town positive. 2. I think you are discrediting voting analysis and NK analysis if you discard them on principle. One of the reasons I did the votecount was that I saw Eden on this site in one of the recent games I read (it could have been Imperial, sicklucker was scum, IamRobik was cop) use it to excellent effect to catch scum Susperia and scum rt....y? I agree that there is not much that is fantastic to go on here. My main points of takeaway from the vote analysis, in case they got lost in the WOT, was that I townread jarjarbinks despite him being and outlier, and scumread The Shining for the lazy sheep onto hier citing rsoul.. I read Silver's early vote as being towny, but I can equally see the cases made for her plopping a vote on an easy lynch, so that moves back to a null for me. My main takeaway from the N1 analysis - don't WIFOM over it overly much - the main point of interest was The Shining's push on you immediately after the flip. It's not a scumread per se. I just want it noted. Does that help? | ||
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