EPTOn May 14 2015 05:57 Damdred wrote:
Sorry been afk had a hell of a day. Should cat h up and be productive shortly
Sorry been afk had a hell of a day. Should cat h up and be productive shortly
When you are caught up can I have your reads please?
Assassination Mafia! - Page 83
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
When you are caught up can I have your reads please? | ||
|
LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
On May 14 2015 06:00 yamato77 wrote: sandro rso ksc trfel LS geript/td marv? HtS? damdred? GB? JAT? Xatalos? Obi? VE RoL Stutters batsnacks Oats Onegu Palmar BH Can you explain your reads please? | ||
|
GlowingBear
Brazil12446 Posts
Anyway, obi, when you're scum you hardly have any strong read. You usually ask generic questions but do nothing with them. When you're town, your reads are very bold and when you change your reads you reveal your thought process in thread. I'm not seeing it in this game. I can build a meta case day2 in case I survive. I also find extremely weird that you (i) does not comment on my case on oats at all and (ii) you raise suspicions on me for putting in one post 9 people we should be talking about, saying that that post should be only for oats, ignoring the fact that this is a game with post restriction and I was running out of posts. Moving on BH isn't just Mafia for anti nuking. He is Mafia because he was useless day1 and his initial reads were regarding imprecise game mechanics, easy excuse for Mafia to make reads. When I posted the contradiction regarding the mechanics, he kept with his argument instead of clarifying it with the hosts (ergo: he wanted that to be true so he could have those reads instead of he BELIEVED that it could be true). I've asked the mods and they said Mafia gets to known their partners night0. More than that, even believing in the reads from those mechanics, he completely forgets those reads and calls me town now over a illusory contradiction. But he called me town based on that mechanics. Marv had some townie reactions but scummy plays. Summarising: in the start of day1 he raised suspicions on Onegu and oats. He then again raised suspicions on oats. And did NOTHING with it. When I pointed out scummy things about oats, he completely ignored to push his own agenda. It is clear that he knows the scummy points I've brought because he quoted a post from that time when I said "BH is up to lynch" just to say "he is not". Later he places a vote with weak reasoning on BH that got unexpected traction, than stupidly votes Vivax out of nothing. UNFLIPPED ASSOCIATION: he voted on a team mate to distance himself, saw it getting traction and voted Vivax to save his scum partner. I was expecting that: he kept his options open when he said he was going to vote BH. IF Blazinghand flips town, LS totally is mafia for intentionally throwing away his vote when he was here on deadline. I'm flipping my read on Damdred. He is Mafia. He starts the game very try harding. Gives weird reads. But keeps try Harding. Then he joins his scum meta by being extremely passive and asking questions that goes nowhere or never following up on them. His shot fits much more a Mafia perspective. See, you have a guy being scumread by the whole thread. He gets pardoned because there was a town read on him. People starts townreading the guy. Damdred shoots the guy that could be problematic later without revealing his alignment with the perfect excuse of "not wasting day2". Palmar needs to step up or he might be mafia. I have to go. I'm strongly townreading rsoultin and HTS Yamato could be scum for doing nothing other than berating players. I THINK BH IS THE BEST SHOT HERE SINCE HE IS SCUM AND HIS FLIP WILL GIVE US A LOT OF INFORMATION byr | ||
|
Stutters695
2610 Posts
On May 14 2015 05:52 Blazinghand wrote: Saving Trfel So people seem to have confusion or be scum reading me both for saving Trfel, and for like, questioning him first. In retrospect, if I was bringing my A game, probably the right move would be to reveal that I *could* save Trfel, then question him a bit, THEN save him. This would require a lot of effort and be the right move. What I did was basically be like “truffle are you town” and he was like “yarp” and I was like “ok i save u” and that was all there was to it. I don’t think having a scum read on BM or a town read on him is really relevant or necessary for this. Also, I’m not saying that mods sent me the wrong PM, but it’s entirely POSSIBLE they sent me the wrong PM and I thought I had infinite anti-nukes, so why not? Truffle wasn’t a good nuke target, and more likely to flip town then scum, so I Stopped the nuke. Didn’t think it was a big deal. Wat? In what world has infinite anti-nukes ever been a thing (serious question)? If it were me, I would immediately think that is wrong, but I haven't played in a lot of games with nukes. Additionally, do you actually have a read on anyone? With the anti-nukes, it felt like you were maybe playing like in Les Mis. That feeling is fading fast though. I haven't seen anything like I'd expect out of you and its pretty disappointing.  | ||
|
Damdred
15669 Posts
I think Yamato is town without reading. I'll do more later, but GB is just dumb about me ignore that. Anyway I'll try to put something out there before eon | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
(Sidenote: Should be more than fine with the posts I've been given, cheers you two.) Final Day 1 Vote Count: Vivax (8) - BlazingHand, Marvellosity, Xatalos, Half The Sky, KelsierSC, TalkingDead, Justanothertownie, Oatsmaster, Xatalos (2) - Vivax, LightningStrike Rsoultin (1) - Onegu Palmar (1) - RebirthOfLegend Sandroba (2) - Palmar, Batsnacks BlazingHand (7) - rsoultin, Sandroba, Yamato77, ObiWanShinobi, Damdred, Trfel, GlowingBear No-votes (2) - VisceraEyes, Stutters695 So looking at the main wagons and trying to follow the read patterns: Vivax wagon - Part 1 (JAT/Oats progression in Part 2) BH - had to vote to save himself in all instances. Vote in of itself is NAI. Marv - really suspicious given the overall read progression on Vivax compared to BH as others have mentioned. TD - preferred the BH lynch, but wound up on Vivax. Unclear with his rationale so asking questions here: Started casing BH here = http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/484076-assassination-mafia?page=43#849 First mention of Vivax in filter, in passing to Sandroba about how poor his reads were = http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/484076-assassination-mafia?page=53#1047 Decides to sheep Palmar (more or less) on Vivax: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/484076-assassination-mafia?page=62#1235 The case on BH makes sense with his latest casing of BH. Townread on Palmar also makes sense. Only thing was whether TD/Rayn used this (the transfer of votes off the Vivax wagon) On May 13 2015 08:26 TalkingDead wrote: There's not time for that and it doesn't matter this late in the day. It is in no way about trying to find "the scum that unvoted their partners." It doesn't make you scum and it doesn't make Xatalos town. It's the asymmetrical shift that's interesting, both in the sense that people are more willing to move off you and that people are less willing to move off of him. What is interesting about your response is that you've ignored my point about Imperial entirely to pick at the corners of the point I'm trying to make. ...to justify voting one wagon over another. I don't think he did but I would have expected him to wind up on BH, trusting his own read over Palmar's read on Vivax, since I know TD (I am assuming it's Rayn here) to be very confident, super confident in his reads. If he has any insight on any of the vote switchers (besides Marv/BH) that might be appreciated. Also TD, your comparison with Imperial....that game is murky - did the votes come off faster or slower and what does that tell about people compared to here? Not sure what you were trying to say there (I'm interested because I'm trying to look at the same thing). I don't think TD is suspicious entirely for this, but TD, I feel I need some clarification on why he went back to Vivax, when you appeared to be more sold on BH. Xatalos - Progression on BH goes on like this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/484076-assassination-mafia?page=35#694 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/484076-assassination-mafia?page=33#649 Calls him out based on the use of the role. Per vote logs, started voting for LS/Onegu, then Vivax, then switched to BH, then back to Vivax. I traced his filter along with the timing of his votes. Though he switches to BH, he does this to presumably save himself when he was the other wagon. His switches first to and back to Vivax make sense with the reasoning he provides especially when BH picks up the posting. So Xatalos' switch to BH is NAI but his votes on Vivax are in line with his reasoning. Granted, Xatalos was parroting, and he could be mafia, but his voting in of itself doesn't scream mafia. Kelsier - Suspicious of TD and BM. Post BM kill, votes Xatalos and then Vivax. Pushes on TD are in line with his votes but can't get that wagon going. First reads are having Vivax and Xatalos on a would lynch list. There is no explanation here initially: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/484076-assassination-mafia?page=26#502 Though he follows up with conclusions on Xatalos with this post - I agreed with Kels on Xatalos' very murky reads: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/484076-assassination-mafia?page=34#672 His read on BH as town is in line with his townread on marv, it might be confirmation bias at that point but it doesn't make KSC mafia. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/484076-assassination-mafia?page=41#803 One possible red flag is where he says Vivax is town and wouldn't lynch him: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/484076-assassination-mafia?page=35#700 Final justification of switching to Vivax is here. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/484076-assassination-mafia?page=72#1439 KSC's point about not getting Xatalos lynched is very valid as I wanted more people on Xata (Xata lynch > BH lynch at that time) before I changed to Vivax myself. Sheeping not one, but three of his townreads makes sense although Trfel called KSC out for not focusing on the right things (Marv sheeping me over someone he was pushing doesn't make sense) I'd consider this suboptimal play as opposed to being mafia. I'll get to JAT/Oats in the next post, but I have some questions for Talking Dead in there I'm not clear on. So as far as I can see, the voting further implicates Marv. - BH and Xatalos both could be mafia but not for the voting. - Xatalos might actually be less likely to be mafia, but his D1 gameplay was mostly scummy, so it's really difficult to tell whether it was him trying to get the votes off himself. - KSC - probably town here at least from voting analysis. (Apologies for the wall of text folks.) | ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On May 14 2015 06:39 Stutters695 wrote: 33/60 Wat? In what world has infinite anti-nukes ever been a thing (serious question)? If it were me, I would immediately think that is wrong, but I haven't played in a lot of games with nukes. Additionally, do you actually have a read on anyone? With the anti-nukes, it felt like you were maybe playing like in Les Mis. That feeling is fading fast though. I haven't seen anything like I'd expect out of you and its pretty disappointing. GB, Yam, RSoultin. Still haven't written up Rsoultin at all, and haven't written about yam yet tonight. Surely you didn't miss my GB case? I think it's prety damning. I should rewrite Yam to be more consolidated, of course, so I'm working on that. If youa ctually read my posts you'd be fucking astonished at how much work I've done. What's the deal dude? Hypothetically, if I recieved any werid pms from the mods, here's how I'd reply to that: The PM was like detailed and it said I can stop any nukes I wanted to so yes, I believed it. Believe you me, I was super duper butthurt when mods told me how many anti-nukes I had AFTER I used 2 of them? Yes, I was super duper butthurt. Who responds to a PM saying "hey, is this only 1-shot or 2-shot or something" when the PM clearly outlines that it's mult-use? are you kidding me? Come on, Stutters. In any case, in a hypothetical world where mods sent me an incorrect role PM, I didn't question it, and my ASSUMPTION is that most mods are pretty good about sending role descriptions, and I don't see why I'd be suspicious OF MY ROLE PM. | ||
|
sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
| ||
|
LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
On May 14 2015 06:49 sandroba wrote: So HTS and LS, when is it ok to start considering lynching stutters? When we figure out he's mafia. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
(3 from Bats, 2 from Onegu) On May 14 2015 06:49 sandroba wrote: So HTS and LS, when is it ok to start considering lynching stutters? The way I look at Stutters from playing with him past game, is starting to look at him post-lynch (D1) and much more critically D2. N1 right now, he's not posting much of anything. Although I look at his filter now, and I realise the same problem with him and VE. At 25m prior to EoD, he's most strongly on Vivax, yet he didn't vote. So that is pretty weird. If I had to scum Stutters on D1: He flipped out about the GB pardon, but didn't do anything after that. Now his latest quote - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/484076-assassination-mafia?page=83#1644 BH has posted a lot since the lynch. So Stutters, can you elaborate on why you think his posting has fallen short? BH trolls a lot and has done this as town. Are you actually getting a scum vibe? Also why didn't you vote Vivax? Sandroba, I played two games with Stutters recently - NSM7 and NSM9. 7 was vigishot as VT. 9 was mafia vanilla and was vigshot N2. In 7, his posting was more substantial and he pushed harder D2. In 9, he was scumread by the vig for lurking at EoD. His post quality D2 really tanked hard, but that could have been RL related. But normally where I'd have been alright with him EoD, the actual vig wasnt. Still I wasn't seeing the pickup D2 that I did from his town game. The other way he got picked off was his bussing prplhz for not playing way too early. I saw that as meta, but it was still early in the game for him to be doing that. Point is, there were much more discernible behaviours one way or another on him by D2. He's easier to sort out then. | ||
|
TalkingDead
102 Posts
1. I didn't sheep Palmer. I think Damdred made a point on Vivax early in the game; idk might have been someone else. But that got me to look at Vivax. 2. You're assuming I'm someone I may or may not be and that said presumptuous person wouldn't sheep Marv in that scenario. That's a lot of ifs. 3. Regarding Imperial. I was referring to Vivax posting in that game. His filter was large. He ramped up in posts quickly once pressed (mid-end of D1). He posted often. His posts were huge. Basically exceptionally different from here. 4. There were a few other random things, lack of crazy, etc that pointed that way too. 5. I sheeped Marv because I can. The two were roughly equal and Marv are was voting for one. | ||
|
Stutters695
2610 Posts
@HtS I just re-read it. Actually yeah, I do kind of like his posting (KelsierSC especially), but I just can't reconcile that thing about the anti-nukes. That just feels so goddamn wrong. Like how do just assume that? | ||
|
Stutters695
2610 Posts
I'm starting to think it, but I can't pull the trigger this early. Once some people respond to what BH has said more, I'll get a better feel for it. I thought the deadline was at 10pm EST and I was watching the Bolts game. I'm actually really surprised so few people picked up on me not voting. | ||
|
sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
| ||
|
Stutters695
2610 Posts
I get better when there is less to focus on fwiw. Anyway, I got that you think Palmar is not town, but would he be your primary lynch tomorrow? | ||
|
ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
On May 14 2015 07:17 sandroba wrote: Every single time stutters post I cringe. All of his posts including this last are very straight forward and don't look like it comes from a natural stream of thought. He is apparent caught up with the game and I have yet to see any relevant comentary on someone's alignment or some unique perspective on something. I simply cannot believe that is the norm for his town games. I think this man is scum for sure. Yeah, I'm starting to think it might just be better to shoot someone that isn't really doing much. BH is on the hotseat and is actively trying to sort people and question people, whereas there are a bunch of players that don't really care about what's going on or just are laming it out. Like, if BH flips at this point just for information purposes it wouldn't be totally awful but I can't really begrudge him for doing things and making the most of his posts. Btw GB, I'm dying to see how you will try to meta me, but I can already tell you that you're wrong on the fact that I don't have strong reads as scum. Your bit on "let's talk about how suspicious all of these people are but I won't actually do it myself" was still bad regardless of your bit on Oats. | ||
|
sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
| ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On May 14 2015 06:26 GlowingBear wrote:\ BH isn't just Mafia for anti nuking. He is Mafia because he was useless day1 and his initial reads were regarding imprecise game mechanics, easy excuse for Mafia to make reads. When I posted the contradiction regarding the mechanics, he kept with his argument instead of clarifying it with the hosts (ergo: he wanted that to be true so he could have those reads instead of he BELIEVED that it could be true). I've asked the mods and they said Mafia gets to known their partners night0. 1. OK, you've asked the mods, and ACCORDING TO YOU I was wrong about my thing. but given that mods literally said this: On May 10 2015 07:35 Hapahauli wrote: The game will start in a Night 0 setup phase. Players will receive partial Role PM's that indicate whether or not they're "Town", "Mafia", "Third Party", or "Traitor" (if the latter two exist). These will be the exact contents of the Role PMs. The setup phase will last 24 hours, in which people are free to talk. After Night 0, full role PMs will be sent out and the game will start. Mafia do not have KP during Night 0. I think you're literally lying about whether or not you've been pming the mods about this. Mods LITERALLY SAID, and I QUOTE, Players will receive partial Role PM's that indicate whether or not they're "Town", "Mafia", "Third Party", or "Traitor" (if the latter two exist). These will be the exact contents of the Role PMs. THE EXACT CONTENTS. "MAFIA". So here's what I think. I think that your'e lying THROUGH YOUR TEETH. I think that you've made up this hilarious story about how silly BH wasn't understanding the game, but I think I've understood it perfectly. The mods told us EXACTLY what was in the Pms, and I know EXACTLY What was in mine, and also, Mafia didn't have nks or powers Night 0, so I think it's completely reasonablet hey didn't know each other. The fact that I tried to use this to narrow down who was town and who was scum should not count against me, because I'm RIGHT. And I don't think youv'e been PMing the mods, I think you're talking out of your ass, trying to make me look bad becasue I already look bad. Well, nice try sidestepping the case and making up Mod PMs, Gb. I'm fuckin calling you out, here and now. Let's throw down, buddy. Do you even lift? On May 14 2015 06:26 GlowingBear wrote:\ More than that, even believing in the reads from those mechanics, he completely forgets those reads and calls me town now over a illusory contradiction. But he called me town based on that mechanics. Yeah, those reads don't matter compared to, say, the MONDO case I wrote on you. But it was a start. Sure, you took a risk by scumreading some guy apparently or wahtever it was Past Blazinghand said. But whatever. What you did and said makes NO SENSE, and I've PROVEN it. You can't just CALL it contradictory and leave it there. Inf act, I'll quote the summary here. People WILL read it and you WILL be caught, GlowingBear. You're going down scummingbear On May 14 2015 04:02 Blazinghand wrote: This is all very strange. Let me summarize my confusion on GB: So, to be clear, your first mention of vivax is like "why are vivax or xat better lynches??". Half the Sky responds with a SUPER lackluster case (link) which you never respond to, and then you're like "I'm only voting Vivax or Oats" about 6 hours later with no explanation (link) AT ALL. Okay, fine, whatever. And then, when people jump off the Vivax wagon and onto me, your fllip the FUCK out (link) DESPITE the fact that your'e also scumreading me apparently, so I guess I'm town now? Or maybe you mistrust the shenannies, I guess. But then, when people move BACK onto Vivax, who you reallyw anted to lynch over me, your other scumread, you vote me, the guy who you were really mad people were wagoning onto, on the basis of "not voting with marv" (link). So, I'm really confused here, GlowingBear. It seems like the obvious explanation here is that you're scum and wanted to seem frantic and cause confusion around the deadline as town waflled between two townies. However, maybe there's some actual thought process that coudl explain your actions right a deadline? Maybe some reasoning as to why you flipped out when people moved off of your vivax scumread and onto me? Was I not a scumread of yours, or was I? When people voted me, you were worried, but then when they voted vivax, you switched to me, despite being only willing to vote oats or vivax. Before you make up a GLOWINGBEAR IS SCUM | ||
|
KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
HtS Damdred Sandro GB Palmar (though I would like an explanation for what he was doing EoD and where his head is right now) Trfel I don't think I need to offer additional explanation for this. BH posting during the night and his question to me about the progression of my read felt town and so I maintain my town read on him rsoul I had a slight scum lean on her but her posting during this night phase has been strong, the "walls" have been well thought out and some of her points raised about marv and BH, it's like she believes them. I'm going to say null for now and we see what happens d2. marv - had a town read but I have seen good points raised against him by I think HtS and rsoul , "i was baked" seems like a poor reason to lynch vivax but it would require BH being mafia for marv to be mafia . staying with a town lean but I have lost a bit of faith. VE - started tone town, didn't vote . null Stutters - didn't vote, didn't do anything, scum other people I would lynch Xatalos - Earlier points still stand and the lynch on him got dissolved into a vivax vs BH who I believe are both town, well we know vivax is town. TD - I think HtS raised points about how his ending up on vivax was inconsistent, I had a scum read on him before that so this is another good place to look. Other scum reads I haven't really had a chance to give a detailed case against them but I don't like JAT - I admit I haven't had the chance to reread his EOD Oats - play was very underwhelming around the night kills and although I liked a point he brought up about Xatalos I felt his sniping at me was very opportunistic he twice said "I don't like that he explained his reason for voting vivax" I'm giving town more information , I think silently switching is much worse. Everyone else I have as null and if necessary I will figure out during d2. | ||
|
sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
| ||
| ||
