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Newbie Mini Mafia LXI
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zlefin
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zlefin
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So far my reads are mostly neutral, with a slight town read on trfle and a slight scum read on jarjar. Also, I tend to shorten people's names, they'll still be recognizable, I just wanted people to know that. How long should we give people to post? I figure I'll give people 12 hours from game start to post, which is enough time for a long sleep for anyone. Anyone who hasn't posted by then I'll mark as suspicious, and consider policy lynching. But if people have suggestions for another wait time, by all means. | ||
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For Trfel, it's partly a tonal read, and partly that he's encouraging discussion and trying to get things going. So he's either town, or a well-played (and hence dangerous) scum. For jarjar, it's just an impression, I can't really explain why. | ||
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It is however generating discussion which is useful. | ||
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I'm inclined to take the prior page of discussion as minor evidence of Hier and Rsoultin being town. For Hier, it seems like too complicated a plan for a scum to want to put forth. for rsoultin he was putting forth good reasons for town to dislike the plan with good analysis. Or it could be a plot by the two of them (both being scum) to make themselves both look like town through such an exchange. So I want to make a note of possible link between the two. I think this very unlikely though. | ||
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While I'm inclined to policy lynch for inactivity, such a degree of inactivity in a newbie game with coaches (where they'd be warned of the risks of inactivity), seems like it'd more be a sign of someone not actually trying or being busy IRL than of being scum. | ||
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While I recognize it was done in jest, I still dislike this statement, it feels scummy to say such a thing, even as a joke. | ||
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On February 16 2015 14:53 Hier wrote: By the way, for the sake of pronoun consistency, as I understand it, rsoultin, The Shining, and Mimeux are women, and the rest are men. Is that right? Apologies if I am making a mistake. just wanted to say I tend to forget such details, and default to male pronouns in online conversations, apologies about that if it happens. | ||
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On February 16 2015 15:17 Hier wrote: I just don't know how far my lexicon can take me reiterating my own accusations, and I don't really see the point when you'll just rebuke it my saying I misinterpreted your quotes, thus creating a nucleus for a completely unnecessary discussion. But if you really really really want I'll do so in the morning. It's getting late here too, and tomorrow is a holiday here, so I'll have time. I would like it if you did that, I find this post of yours feels scummy to me. It feels like a lot of blather, and needlessly fanc y words (admittedly something I tend to do myself), that say very little and amount to a post that doesn't really add anything. | ||
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Trfel 1/1 Shining rsoultin 1/1 elyas jarjar -2/2 mimeux hier 0/2 silver with mimeux out, and his replacement not yet in, I don't expect to get enough information on the replacement to have a read on them by voting time. I remain concerned about silver having no posts on the first real life day, and overall activity level. Now I gotta go back, find jarjars question to answer it, and then maybe review the people I don't have any read on to see if I can find something. my current lynch candidates are jarjar, hier, silver, trfel. The reason for trfel is that I feel trfel is a high information lynch. If he's scum, he's a skilled scum; and there's a lot of discussion between trfel and others, if I could go back through those discussions with the lynch knowledge of his alignment, I think that would provide a lot of other leads one way or the other. I think it would provide more information than anyone else's lynch. | ||
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On February 16 2015 01:02 jarjarbinks wrote: Could you use a quote or something to explain Trf's? no, I cannot. It wasn't a read from a single post, or two posts, unlike a fair portion of my mild reads; it was a gestalt impression of all his posts up until the time I'd made that post. Was this the question you wanted answered? Please be sure to confirm yes/no. | ||
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I have a strategy question: do I mild scumread Shining for accusing me (since I know I'm town)? My impression is that I should not, in this case at least, but I'd like to hear from other people. Hmm, I'm gonna have to remember Bayes rule and see if I can get it do something useful on that question. | ||
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On February 16 2015 22:39 Silverarte wrote: Sorry friends, I completely fell asleep last night >< I'll take the sleepiness into account Trfel. ![]() As far as Shining goes, I can see your point. I didn't see what made the case on Zlefin, particularly since Zle's filter looked null to me at that time. I'd say the oddest thing to me here is that you being potentially scumread for walls of text. Those make it hard to read sometimes true, but I proved my only other game then and now that I do those too. Personally, I'd like to see more from Shining. I saw where you are coming from, but I don't feel he's a D1 lynch. And actually, I'd like to see everyone's thought here too. @zlefin I appreciate the concern about activity and all that, but remember. I live in the US and I posted my schedule up. On Saturdays, I work for ten hours then went out for Valentines out here. While I appreciate activity might signify something, at the same time, understanding for the holiday I feel should be in there somewhere too. Now, that said and behind us, my question for you is this. The scumread list you gave, can I ask what gives you the thoughts that Jarjar and Hier are on the lynch list. Also, if I'm reading the way you have that list right, Rsoultin is on the lynch list too, is that correct? (It's the points I'm trying to sort out). rsoultin is not on my lynch list, the lynch list was separate and later in the post. The points are positive indicate town reads, negative is scum reads. denominator is total reads one way or the other. I don't maintain a list of where each point comes from, though reasons for the majority of them will be somewhere in my filter with me saying something; others are more impressions over several posts or a large discussion. I suppose I should be more thorough in tracking them. I am giving some understanding for holiday, but it still seems odd to not find the time to put in a post or two even if you can't do a full thread read. I'm a person with plenty of time, so I tend to view others through the same lens. | ||
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On February 17 2015 00:26 rsoultin wrote: I disagree with this, zle, based solely on the fact that if you read Truffle's post to JJB it was a joke in response to a joke. Unless you believe that Truffle actually meant his "town can never be wrong so you're scum" comment ![]() I did read the earlier post, and recognize it's likely to be a joke in response to a joke, I still don't like it though. And it's not like I have piles of reads to work with, so I'll take what I can get. | ||
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On February 17 2015 00:02 Trfel wrote: Hi Tere. On Hier, for now I am thinking that he is more likely to be town than scum. There is a definite difference between bad play and mafia, and while I don't see Hier's play as being particularly beneficial to town, I don't really see it being mafia-motivated. Just want to be clear on what you're saying: you're saying you have a town read on him, which, given the baseline probability of 77% of him being town, you're placing the odds of him being town at higher than that? I ask because the statement "more likely to be town than scum" would technically be true of someone who had a 51% chance of being town. | ||
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I'm not entirely clear on what you mean by finding a voice; but I know I tend to be more tentative in general than most people, and there isn't a mafia history yet to compare with. | ||
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On February 17 2015 01:47 Trfel wrote: Zlefin, who do you want to lynch now? (and yes, I read your previous list, if it is the same, then that is fine... unless of course you decide to lynch me, in which case I'll be pretty annoyed) Currently, I'm most likely to lynch Hier. There's a mild chance I choose someone else on my list as a probe for information. On you, I think I'll wait a day at least, I still feel that a lynch on you would provide the most information to guide future plans, but I need to build a better case for that and think about it before going through with it. I'm also deciding whether to vote now, or wait to give Hier a chance to respond before voting, as he's presently asleep. | ||
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On February 17 2015 02:33 rsoultin wrote: If you believe I'm town this game, trust that I will definitely do my best to try to bring the towniness out of Hier before lynching him. I wanted you to start that counterwagon, though, since you seem so certain that Hier is not the lynch. You're not starting it. This is concerning. But apparently you have to go, so I'll just...lol, figure it out from here as best I can xP I share this concern as well; and would like Trfel to build up a counter-case against someone else. Anyone who's >51% but <77% to be town, is still better than an rng lynch, and I don't think anyone here is bad enough that we could get an easy scumread day 1, so we'll have a high mislynch chance regardless. I do wonder what information we gain from a Hier lynch. I feel that if it's a mislynch, we gain very little information to work with, though if it's a right lynch, hmmm. I should go back and figure out what we might conclude in each of the cases for outcomes on a Hier lynch. | ||
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It's an impression I've formed that he's at the nexus of several conversations, and that if I knew he was town, I could point to 2-3 people as the likeliest scum in response, and if I knew he was scum, I could point to 1-2 people as the likeliest other scum. To put another way, I the feeling I get is that if I knew his alignment, it would really strongly narrow down my my suspects, whereas for some other people, a lynch wouldn't help me much. But again, I really need to go back over everything to make sure my feel has some validity. | ||
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On February 17 2015 03:01 Tere wrote: I can try! First off, I think this is his first game: Then says he's a slight town read on trfel and slight scum on jarjar, null on the rest. Wants to consider policy lynching for inactivity after 12 hours, which is a little keen IMO. Says reads are mostly tonal and impressions, which I don't see as alignment indicative (given I use tone a lot myself). Townreads Hier (plan too much effort for scum) and rso (likes objections and analysis) after some clarification on WIFOM, then tries to connect you, demonstrating said WIFOM. Still wants to policy lynch even though he thinks it's unlikely it's a scum tell - which the Shining picked up on and I do think is a bit off too, it's funny logic for town. Dislikes the banter between Trfel and jarjar saying jarjar's joking makes him look scummy (I think the opposite). Doesn't like one of Hier's thesaurus posts (nor did I). Posts up his tally system, saying jarjar, hier, silver and trfel are lynchpool, prefers trfel for most information. Asks if he should OMGUS Shining for his push on him. There's a funny question about town probability of Trfel's townread on Hier. Confirms it is his first game and settles for Hier as most probable lynch. Ugh. There's aspects of that logic that I don't like for town (wanting to policy lynch while recognising unlikely to be scum, disliking the banter, wanting to lynch Trfel for most info despite not finding him the most scummy for example), but I can also see that as coming from newbie town, particularly newbie town who seems to be trying to feel their way on their own without relying too much on their coaching support. Bits look scummy but there might be a genuine reason for that in his new player status. I appreciate that's not much help. As for the policy lynch issue, while it's only a minor one, town depends on information, and if someone is providing little/no information, that's a problem, and a minor scum indication. I generally check up on things on waking up and going to bed, and usually several times over the day in between, so I tend to treat others as if they could do similarly (even if the check is only cursory). Unlikely to be scum doesn't mean can't be scum; like I say, anyone between 51%-77% to be town is still more likely to be scum than an RNG guess. I asked for input on how to handle the policy lynch issue because I wasn't sure, as a lot of that depends on skill level of the people involved, and the local meta on handling such things. Especially if people play at a very basic level such things would be more indicative; what I've found in this game is that people mostly seem moderately experienced, either with mafia games, or with the genre generally, so that they aren't making egregious rookie mistakes. | ||
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On February 17 2015 03:54 jarjarbinks wrote: So is this like your strongest read of the game? Deserving of a -2 score? each read I only score as a single point, unless it's really strong, this was a 1 point scum read; the other -1 came from a general tonal impression over the first RL day or so. | ||
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On February 17 2015 04:10 jarjarbinks wrote: I'm adding to the counterwagon for zlefin. There definitely needs to be one, and I see zlefin as pretty scummy so far. 1. Doesn't really explain scumreads, besides my joke. 2. Is kind of scumhunting, but not really. 3. Most reads are pure tonal. Which is fine, but I can't back that. zlefin if you answer my above question and I like it, I am willing to change my vote. Hier, please post you still have a chance of not dying today. People switch votes all the time in this game. Answering questions helps people understand your thinking and if your town that is good for you as to the reads, what would you have me do? If it's a read that comes from many posts as a vague impression, with no specific posts to point to, then what would you have me do to explain it? | ||
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On February 17 2015 04:22 jarjarbinks wrote: Got it. Can you explain your Trf flip reasoning from before? I'm not entirely clear on what this question is, but most likely from what you're asking it's what I answered already on page 20 post 3 (assuming everyone has same posts/page) not long ago. | ||
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That said, having periodic summaries of your stance on everyone would increase clarity, and be easier to keep track of. | ||
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Any thoughts/arguments/ideas on what would provide the most town information? | ||
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Hopefully when I review the filters of my other current null reads I'll find something. | ||
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Lunch is more important than mafia, so go and eat and enjoy! | ||
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On February 17 2015 07:10 rsoultin wrote: We need a wagon. Analyzing the larger picture, unless you have something really good, is probably better suited for the night phase. Admittedly I've been lurking for the last hour or so, to see what happens when I've stepped back from the thread. Zle is not impressing me, either. If we want a vote switch (and I'm still not sure I do, frankly) I'm willing to switch to him. Shining's not being here at all today also isn't sitting well with me. Sorry I couldn't impress you, but there really isn't anything else I can do. | ||
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On February 17 2015 07:19 rsoultin wrote: Zlefin, I don't know, man. Asking who to vote for in thread is weird. It's a newbie game; you have someone to talk to if you're not sure how to play. You just seem super reluctant about this Hier lynch. If you don't think it's right, then I don't understand what you're doing right now. I tend to be a cautious person in general, so it's probably just that you're hearing. I think Hier is about 65% chance of town; so better than an RNG lynch, though hardly a great choice. When I asked who to vote for, I gave a good reason for asking, so that should be fine. I know how to play, but encouraging discussion is good, and I wanted to hear from the other players on the question. | ||
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On February 17 2015 07:24 rsoultin wrote: Who do you really want to vote for, Zle? If you were a vigilante, had a day shot, and could take someone out without anyone else's input, who would it be and why? I don't have anyone I really want to vote for, or I'd vote for them. All I have are a few weak reads on some people, the table I keep is like this currently: Trfel 0/2 Shining rsoultin 1/1 elyas jarjar -2/2 tere hier 0/2 silver -1/1 which given that points are minor reads (not necessarily of the same strength, any time I get a feel one way or another due to a post, or a general impression, I put a point in on someone) means I don't have any good target. If I were vigilante, I'd save my shot for better reads later. If I had to choose, I'd probably choose jarjar, since he's the guy I have two negatives on. | ||
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On February 17 2015 07:42 jarjarbinks wrote: It looks like your table change for Trf and Silver since last time you posted it. What did they say/do that made you give them a point? I'm not sure, I'd have to look back through my own filter, at least for trf's case. I probably did it in response to something someone said, in which case I probably said something in thread about that, at least to agree with their concern. For silver, I'm just unsatisfied with his late posting, his explanation is reasonable, and could be the case, but I still don't like it. I was waiting to hear his explanations for not posting real life day 1 before dinging him a point (especially since until he posted, I thought he was gonna get replaced). | ||
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On February 17 2015 08:11 rsoultin wrote: There are a ton of red flags appearing in zlefin's play, though, and that concerns me. This whole not wanting to vote-switch stuff among them. Townies generally don't care about consistency or perception, because townies are just trying to find scum. I just don't like to bother the moderators with vote switches needlessly. I prefer to just let everyone know what I'm looking at in-thread, rather than through the vote mechanism. Sadly, as it's my first game, you can't see a history which would show that. | ||
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On February 17 2015 13:00 Trfel wrote: Anyway, I'm tired now. I'll keep checking up on the thread, but I doubt I will seriously investigate anything else before I go to sleep. I hope you can understand. I'll get to everything else tomorrow. Be warned that I sometimes get carried away playing mafia, so it's also possible that I stay up until something like 5 AM analyzing everything to death. Slightly unrelated, I would appreciate thoughts on the formatting of my previous post. Is that more understandable and easier to read than a wall of text version? I found the formatting to be quite helpful for reading it. | ||
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On February 17 2015 14:16 rsoultin wrote: He was asking weird questions imo...about who he should be voting for even though he thought that hier was scum. for information purposes or somethin' Then went all quiet after I said just vote for his scumread since there were 2hrs left. Something else about not wanting to change votes a lot. Seemed very concerned about perception there at the end and his vote on Hier was very half-hearted, dunnae. Yup. I think I commented on it in my filter actually. Dude, have you not heard about all the snow? I was shoveling snow, I already said that! | ||
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On February 17 2015 19:21 Tere wrote: Morning zlefin! If you had two bullets, who would you shoot right now to kill scum? right now, I'd shoot you, and, hmm, probably jarjar. but I only just finished my review of the thread, I need to go filter looking for the people I have lousy reads on. To try to be clearer about where my points are coming from: I'm giving tere a -1 point because the confirmed town Hier put his final efforts and vote on him. I'm still considering trfel's case against tere. | ||
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On February 17 2015 22:43 Tere wrote: Yup. There's an extremely good town related reason why someone might want to get a town consensus on scum reads during the night phase, and it's not that hard to figure out. Just saying ![]() Anyway, out to this bloody boring meeting. Back later. that strikes me as rude. If you have a good reason, you should provide it. It feels like instead you want someone to come up with something that you can then say "yeah that was it", when you can't think of a good reason yourself. | ||
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The point totals are not something anyone else is meant to follow, it's simply letting people know where I'm at. I made the totals for myself, to help me keep track of my thoughts a little. I post them simply because it's very easy to copy/paste it and information tends to be good for town, and there's no issue with spam in these games in general, so I may as well post it in addition to whatever else I'm doing. As to what is now the case, well, my initial reads still are what they were; I don't get new reads on people of any sort very often. The most new reads are on Tere for the reasons I mentioned a bit ago (I assume it's so recent you don't need a reminder). I don't think I've been getting new tonal reads on people. (my memory could of course be faulty, as I don't keep timelapse data on my point system). What other clarifications would you like? | ||
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On February 17 2015 23:28 Trfel wrote: Zlefin, I hope you can understand why people are skeptical of your list. It would be extremely nice if in the future, you could keep a list of why you read people as the alignment that you do for the individual points. This is also helpful for you, because if you decide that someone is scum, you can use these lists to quickly show why they are scum. I will try to be a little more detailed. But the points again are really more for my own use than for others, and I only copy/paste because it's easy to do so. | ||
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If I had thoughts I'd share them, and I have. Often I just don't. I can't give you what isn't there. | ||
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On February 18 2015 00:20 rsoultin wrote: Firstly, if you're hinting at what I believe you're hinting at, Tere, use your best judgment and your coach. You don't need everyone else's reads to do it. Put on those big girl pants xP And give your own reads, cause you know how this confirmation bias stuff works, and you're feeding into it right now. Zlefin...let's try something, okay? Would you like to play a game with me? Lol, JJB will probably recognize this game. I find your tone odd and condescending. We're already playing a game, it's called mafia. If you want to say something, say it. | ||
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On February 18 2015 01:18 rsoultin wrote: Actually, lol, our case-maker just found your reasons in your filter, Zlefin, but if you do want to play the game anyway, just let me know ^^ Nah, Truffle, it was only his later play that was bugging me, anyway. His point system reminds me of my brother's lol. Speaking of paranoia...JJB isn't getting scumread this game. Seems like a dumb reason to find him scummy, but usually everyone is like JJB, scummiest of scum! Am I nuts? pass on the game, I don't think it will help me clear up my thoughts at all. I want to use my time to review the two people I still have no reads either way on (shining and elyas) to see if I can figure something out on them. As to JJB, I've had him at mild scumread if that makes you feel any better. Which, by your description of him, would be his usual state. It'll take some time for me to figure out how to compensate for how naturally scummy certain people sound, since I don't have a background on them. | ||
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On February 18 2015 01:59 rsoultin wrote: Believe it or not, that actually does make me feel better ^^ Eh, I don't know how to explain JJB other than he's a bit of a happy clown, but the biggest points in his favor at EoD were how he kept the discussion open. I know he was pushing you, but from a mafia perspective, if you know the leading wagon is town you either just sit there and let others push it so you don't look bad when he flips town, or you say "this is a bad lynch" but do nothing to stop it. JJB doesn't really fall in either category. Do others concur with rsoultin's description of JJB? I ask because I don't want to base any changes entirely off this in the unlikely event the two of them are mafia. If others concur with the description, I'm going to give a positive point to JJB, based on rsoultins comments in the last page, which also help reassess JJBs early game (in particular his joke which I didn't like, more info on its normalcy for him ameliorates it). | ||
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I can't point to specific posts; but it just feels like there isn't much there. The overall post amount is markedly lower than average, and it feels like not much is being added to the discussions, mostly repeating what others have said. Admittedly, a lot of the same applies to me, so I'm not yet sure what to make of it, but I'm definitely concerned. I'm gonna put a -1 on my points for elyas. | ||
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Silver's definitely feel more helpful, and somewhat contentful. I'd also like to hear other's reactions to this assessment. | ||
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On February 18 2015 09:02 Trfel wrote: Well, I'm still alive. That's interesting. I wonder if that means I'm completely off track. Or if it means that someone on the mafia team is cruel and wants to torture me. Rsoultin, I'll take a look at your filter and your reads. I still think that we are mostly in the same place, though. completely off track about what? Note: I'm responding to some things as I read the thread to get up to date, so if something was already answered, responses will not be needed. | ||
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Killing a confirmed town is just plain good for scum in general, since it makes the lynch pool harder. | ||
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On February 18 2015 02:05 zlefin wrote: Do others concur with rsoultin's description of JJB? I ask because I don't want to base any changes entirely off this in the unlikely event the two of them are mafia. If others concur with the description, I'm going to give a positive point to JJB, based on rsoultins comments in the last page, which also help reassess JJBs early game (in particular his joke which I didn't like, more info on its normalcy for him ameliorates it). since rsoul flipped town, I'm gonna go ahead and give JJB his +1 town point for this. I think there was some discussion from others sorta confirming it, but I wasn't entirely sure about the confirmation, and I recently remembered I never scored/addressed it further; but now that I know rsoul is town, I'm fine with giving JJB the point. | ||
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My one concern is that it kinda feels like trying to get the benefit of blueclaiming without actually blueclaiming. | ||
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While Elyas did post some above, it still seems to be low value/content, mostly just repeating what happened rather than analyzing it. That, combined with the prior history of seriously low content posting from Elyas, makes me feel Elyas is one of the scum, there's just too little scumhunting. So I'm voting Elyas. | ||
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I'm starting to try to think on pairwise analysis to see who looks too in sync. | ||
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Hopefully you're number of posts doesn't change as I'm typing this. | ||
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Mostly I'd expect associations to be unclear, but the fewer people there are left in the pool, the more it becomes possible to maybe say something. Even if I could just say a certain pair of people aren't both mafia, that'd still be useful. It also represents another way of looking at things; and looking at things from a different angle can be helpful, as long as you don't read too much into it. | ||
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here's where my point totals are now: Trfel 0/2 Shining 1/1 rsoultin 1/1 dead town N1 elyas -1/1 jarjar -1/3 tere -1/3 hier 0/2 dead town D1 silver -1/1 as a reminder, not all points area created equal, it simply means I at one time or another had a feel one way or another. Some feels are stronger than others, and I haven't yet figured out a system for letting points decay over time, or if I even should have points decay over time. I'm going to put this in another format: Townish: Shining Neutral: Trfel, Jarjar, tere Scummish: elyas, silver Question for everyone: In terms of the above 3 categories (townish, neutral, or scummish) how would you classify each other remaining player? If you could format it similarly to above, so it's easier to read and compare them, please do so. Jarjar, you seem to like data and tables, would having that data from each player be helpful to you, given that they're merely statements and not votes? | ||
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On February 19 2015 09:10 Trfel wrote: I'm glad to see that there were several pages while I was gone. I'm still reading, but I wanted to drop in and say this. Tere, do you mind if I don't respond to your post? My impression of what you are asking me to do is exactly what I am attempting to do. I feel like I am having a hard time communicating my true intent with you (probably my fault, not yours), so I'm not sure that responding would help anything. Though if you do want me to respond, of course I can do so, I'm just not sure that it would help with anything. Oh, and zlefin, I hope you won't mind if I don't list my reads like that, just because I don't like quantifying or categorizing my reads. But as of Page 44, Silverarte seems to be the best lynch. I moderately mind, it's not THAT hard to do, and it helps me get a clearer sense of where everybody is, and a good reference point to look back at. | ||
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On February 19 2015 09:49 Trfel wrote: A response to Tere (because zlefin asked for it, shrug) Note that I do not require a response if you do not choose to provide one. It is spoilered because I don't see it as being very important. + Show Spoiler + This post makes a lot of sense. I understand more at what you were getting at in your Walls of Text. Not directed towards me, but this is really nice to see. Now, this post. I hate adding responses inside quotes, so bear with me (if anyone is actually reading this). As to me being patronizing to Tere ("good girl, well done"), this is not intended in the slightest. Whether she is scum or town, I'm pretty sure that Tere is the most skilled player left in this game, and I have no right whatsoever to be condescending to her. My only intention was to acknowledge the effort and thank her for it, and say that I felt that it made rather good evidence for her being town. As for me judging my own play, I was not looking for sympathy, and my intention was not to talk about myself. I was saying that you townread me for something, and I didn't like your reasoning, while allowing for the possibility of an accurate tone read (because I am terrible at tone reads). I have already accepted that Tere and I think differently and work differently. I don't think that is a problem. As for simplifying your reads, you are right that that part of my post was horrid. I have no explanation. As for me not being confident in my tone read of Tere, I'm bad at tone reads, of course I'm not confident in it (that won't stop me from trying to use tone reads, though...). I guess it makes sense that you don't want to lead a wagon. I disagree, and think that you are good enough at this game that I think you ought to lead a wagon, but I understand what you are saying and I accept it. And no, I'm not scum. I am not 100% sure of your alignment, but I think you are town. Tagging this at the bottom because I'm not sure it deserves its own post. You already have my reaction, to me it seems like a town vs town argument. This isn't what I asked for, I asked for a response to my request for a list in standard format, of where you view each player Towny Neutral Scummy | ||
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shining, jarjar, tere. apologies if you did post but I somehow didn't notice it. I just went back through all the posts looking specifically for those, but it's always possible to miss things. | ||
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On February 20 2015 01:39 ElyAs wrote: Wow, that's what I call a scud. I think something's starting to make sense. I'm changing my way of reading this game. Something felt off but I can narrow it down to 3 people as possible lynch for tonight imo. Making some notes as I filter-dive looking to reassess things. This is the post where Elyas changes (or starts to change) her view of trfel from a bit of a townread to scum. | ||
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On February 20 2015 04:01 ElyAs wrote: Ok I'm gonna commit, I volontarily omitted the punchline to my scenarii post. I'm Wendy Testaburger, town Doctor ! Which is why I can say with such confidence that the role distribution is either : 1 Godfather, 1 Goon, 1 Doc, 1 Vigilante, 5 Vanilla Town or 1 Roleblocker, 1 Goon, 1 Doc, 6 Vanilla Town My point is, Tere has been breadcrumbing blue, but most importantly, she has been breadcrumbing Vigi adding to my strong townread. Proof : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=44#874 "The two people I would shoot right now are The Shining and Silverarte." Why is she saying this while nobody has asked her who'd she shoot ? If this is true and Tere is Vigi, then we have a godfather that played like there could be cops around, while there are none. If this is false... GG Tere, I got fooled and luck was on your side. She said it because throughout the night she had been asking people who they'd shoot if they had 2 bullets, and there was some discussion back and forth between people about her asking the question without having provided answers at that time. So the 2 bullet thing would have been on her mind even if she hadn't been explicitly asked, due to considerable prior discussion on a who to shoot with 2 bullets issue. | ||
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So I'm moving it onto Silver, who is my best other suspect. I could see a Trfel/Silver team, and I could see an Elyas/Tere team, both possibilities look very plausible to me, based on how the recent interactions and votes have gone. I prefer to target silver, as there are of course some other less likely possibilities for the scum team, and silver's play has still been too suspicious on the whole, whereas trfel has more townish aspects. The info I requested from other people shows a strong trend toward Silver being seen as scum (1 person has him at neutral, 5 at various levels of scumminess, I still haven't gotten a list from jarjar), which makes me feel further that it's a good lynch choice. I would like to hear more from jarjar, he's felt a bit absent for day 2, so being paranoid, I worry that on the off chance he's scum, he'd just be inactive because he's not needing to do anything. Also, I'd really like that list Jarjar, before the day is done if possible. | ||
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I'm finding it difficult, not impossible, but rather difficult. At any rate, silver and tere's recently lists requests have them scumreading each other, which conforms with their other statements. How silver actually votes would help inform this further. What would their gameplan be? If they manage to lynch Trfel, and he flips town, then Tere is likely to be lynched next as the one who led on trfel and challenged him to gladiate. This would give them a net 3 for 1, with their 2 night kills taking people out; but it also leaves the final 3 at Silver and 2 others, silver wouldn't get any town cred for joining the lynch on tere, and is the scummiest read overall at the moment. So he'd probably be the day 4 lynch. Which would mean mafia loses. If they switch the lynch to Silver, possibly bussing silver; then Tere tries to push her claim and get Trfel removed as the obvious next step. Based on current vote inclinations, that would probably happen, so it'd be again down to 3 people, with Tere instead of Silver as the survivor. Which given Tere's poor reputation, still doesn't bode well for mafia. They could try to leave Elyas alive, and use that to try to get Elyas lynched. But doing so would be a big risk, since it means either Elyas has chances to stop night kills, OR they have a roleblocker who can stop the night kill saves, but there's a vig out there; either of those options could set mafia back enough that they lose. | ||
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Not impossible, but really tricky and risky. | ||
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Why would you feel betrayed by town when there's only 2 people voting on you right now? There's more votes on other people than on you; and the remaining 2 people aren't too likely to vote against you either Trfel, certainly shining has you as the towniest person on his list, and I have no list from Jarjar, but I don't think he's likely to pile on you. It feels like now, and a little while ago, trfel was pushing too strong defensively when not that many people were actually against him. You normally only see that kind of reaction when it's near or past half the town voting that way, not just 2 people, who could be the scum themselves. That said, I still think Silver is by far the safest lynch choice for today, as this is only an oddity, but could just be people being/feeling weird, or miscounting how many people are on which wagon. | ||
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I just noticed, I misread who had and hadn't voted yet. | ||
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Huh, seeing as Silver has you as his towniest listed choice, and tere as his scummiest, I'm not sure my miscount actually changes much about the actual threat you're in Trfel. | ||
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On February 20 2015 05:55 The Shining wrote: Zlefin, you seem to be showing suspicion of Trfel. Had him listed null before. He has a very extensive filter, a lot to analyze. There have been reads, pushes, willingness to engage, quick retractions when wrong and reading the thread. This is why I town read him. With a player with a filter this big, with valid scumhunting, are you still null on him? If so, how? If not, where are you leaning on him? He's still an overall null, he's had some good towny moments, as well as some things over time that make him feel scummy. It still comes out fairly neutral, it could go either way. Like I say, I could see a Trfel/Silver team as a possibility, as I looked over how things were done. I am still quite concerned about Elyas claim, Elyas was my vote up until now, I only changed because of the blueclaim; time is a bit thin, and the posts about Elyas I cited in the previous page show some oddities in how Elyas came to her choices, so I still have concerns about Elyas, I just don't want to lynch yet given the blue claim. I maintain silver is a great target right now. I'm suspicious of Tere as well, more suspicious than I am of trfel. I'm fine with being paranoid, so I see no reason not to have some suspicions on people; which is why I'd like to see more from JarJar. | ||
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Trfel 0/2 Shining 1/1 rsoultin 1/1 dead town N1 elyas -1/1 jarjar -1/3 tere -1/3 hier 0/2 dead town D1 silver -1/1 tere has negatives, and got the positive point iirc early day 2 (or maybe late night 1) from a strong helpful push which covered a lot of good text in a short period of time. But the stuff on either side of that isn't so impressive. | ||
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On February 20 2015 06:27 The Shining wrote: Zlefin, I asked because you are voting with Trfel by voting Silver. Just wanted to make sure you weren't voting with a scumread. That's just bad. Wow, Tere, that's a case. Let me get through it, shouldn't be more than 10 mins. On the surface, it looks pretty damning, as some of it echoes thoughts I had on Trfel with my early suspicions. I'm not sure what you mean by voting with a scumread. I changed my vote from my first target, who blueclaimed, to the next best target on my list, as I established early on in day 2 in my town/neutral/scum post. | ||
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On February 20 2015 06:46 The Shining wrote: K, just making sure. And honestly, upon review, I can see how plausible it is. Ugh. Zlefin I was just explaining why I asked where you stand on Trfel. If you thought he was scum, you'd be voting with your scum read but you don't. Just wanted to make that clear. I know it won't make you feel better, but I did earlier mention the possibility of a silver/trfel pairing, I still consider that a real possibility. Really, if Silver is mafia, which I think likely, then their partner bussing them wouldn't be surprising at all. | ||
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I'll keep listening to things and discussing some things; but mostly I want to see what comes of the lynch today and the night kill. While I will of course keep talking and analyzing thing, I feel I already have enough info to figure how to handle all remaining votes (with adjustments based on how everyone turns of course) | ||
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On February 20 2015 07:19 Trfel wrote: To those of you who townread Tere for all of the effort she put in at the start of Day 2, why doesn't that argument work for me, too? It's a good argument or it's a bad argument, you can't pick and choose. I could make a really good case on Tere. It wouldn't be hard to do. I am fairly good at making convincing cases. The problem is, just because I see a convincing case on someone doesn't make them scum. Maybe my problem is I am too honest. I'm supposed to lie about how strong I think my reads are. Or maybe the problem is that I'm just terrible at making reads. In that case, you are all even worse for following my reads for a day and a half. I wonder who you're talking to, by my data, trfel is townread by exactly one person, elyas; scumread by 3 people, and one neutral with a slight scum leaning (me) and I don't have jarjar's data yet, but hope to soon. | ||
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On February 20 2015 07:30 Trfel wrote: Does anyone mind if I go take a nap? no, in fact I encourage you to. Getting enough sleep is very important for activites like this, and all you need to say for this thread you've already said. Go, rest, relax, recover. | ||
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On February 20 2015 07:46 Trfel wrote: Would it help if I referenced a post or two that shows Tere seeming to enjoy playing scum? I don't think it would, the point is useless anyway. So I see no use in it. my apologies, I mistyped. EBWOP for the post trfel was referreing to, I meant Tere, not Trfel | ||
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On February 20 2015 07:46 zlefin wrote: I wonder who you're talking to, by my data, trfel is townread by exactly one person, elyas; scumread by 3 people, and one neutral with a slight scum leaning (me) and I don't have jarjar's data yet, but hope to soon. to clarify, this is the post I'm EBWOP'ing, I meant to say tere here, not trfel, in the quoted post. | ||
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According to Tere's theory, Trfel and Silver are the two scum. So if she's right, silver is scum. If she's wrong, there's viewpoints from other people that still point to Silver being scum. So Silver is more likely to be scum than Trfel, so better to vote Silver. | ||
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On February 20 2015 07:52 The Shining wrote: With the understanding that you come back before EoD, right?? Or did you really just tell Trfel to AFK EoD because he said all he had to say. The wagons have already been made, tere made her case, trfel made his defense. Both have been done at length with back and forth. I don't see anything important or new being added about it. more importantly though: This is fun, but it's still ultimately a game, and less important than real life and health. And sleep is very important for health. | ||
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On February 20 2015 07:57 jarjarbinks wrote: You have a point here, but most people's cases on silver are because of the lurking which screams mislynch. Give me time. I might end up doubting my vote and killing the lurker anyways lol noted. Just making sure you're aware that it's lurking with the comments being made being unhelpful; as opposed to lurking lowactivity but with the activity being done helpful. | ||
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It's not THAT important which one we do first. Also, people very pointedly noted that on Silver, the issue isn't just filter length, but that the content itself is dreadfully weak. | ||
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using caps for clarity: ZLEFIN, not ZFELIN. I don't mind that much, it's just helpful if people spell it right. | ||
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On February 20 2015 09:13 The Shining wrote: Scum slip? Only scum knows set up. Yes, you could argue the RB flip confirms it but Ely is still not confirmed Doc. He might as well be but he isn't. I'm not really sure why you posted this, since its a point we could have all made on our own. Only 2 total setups with both a role blocker and Doctor. No Vigi claim and no N1 shot. dangit shining, I was all set to be happy with this game and you had to go and say something like this to make me suspect you of being up to something. It's not a scum slip, because elyas is confirmed doctor. roles are revealed on death, so we know we've lost 2 VT and 1 mafia roleblocker. EVERYONE who's still alive in the game has posted after the lynch. Which means if Elyas is lying about being the doctor, then one of the other living players MUST be the blue, and all they have to do is counterclaim and town wins guaranteed by lynching them both. They've already had the opportunity to do so, and did not do so. Which makes Elyas confirmed blue (unless someone somehow didn't realize this, and is a blue, and hasn't counterclaimed yet, in which case, DO SO BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT). The only setup with roleblocker which we know to exist, AND a doctor, has no other blues. So therefore if ANY other player has ANY blue, elyas would have to be lying, which again is the counterclaim and town wins scenario. | ||
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While I may do some looking to help rule out unlikely possibilities, my early day 2 assessments haven't changed, except for Elyas being blue. So Tere is, and has been, next on my list for some time, and everything since then supports the notion that Tere is the best lynch for the next day. So that's where I'll be placing my vote. PS IF ANYONE OTHER THAN ELYAS IS BLUE COUNTERCLAIM ALREADY BECAUSE IT MAKES TOWN WIN. saying that since shining said some people somehow screwed up on that in other games he's played. | ||
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But I still think the Tere slot is the best lynch for today. If that lynch turns town, then I'll do a serious reconsideration of things. | ||
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On February 21 2015 21:39 Palmar wrote: As a fun project, how about everyone that intends to lynch me puts together in their own words a summary as to why I must be mafia. Please demonstrate why my previous actions in this game must necessarily come from mafia. Shouldn't take more than 15 minutes per player, there is virtually no downside in doing it, and a huge upside (you might dodge a mislynch!) I don't want to spend the time. I'd already had this lynch chosen before you subbed into the game; and nothing Tere could've said would change it. | ||
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On February 22 2015 02:05 Palmar wrote: This is such a monumentally stupid stance to take. If you follow through with this, and you happen to be town, you will be the most to blame of everyone in the game for this mislynch. You refuse to play the game because you're terrible (or maybe mafia? in which case I'm fine with it). Since you're being rude I'm just going to ignore you after this. There are plenty of good reasons, and they have all been detailed in the thread by myself and others. I don't want to do extra work because someone else subbed in last minute into a position which was already going to be lynched. I already did a lot of analysis and thinking and talking which points to where the best lynch is. | ||
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I have had some suspicions of jjb; and my plan remains as before, IF tere flips town, then I'll put in some serious looking and review his filter. I just don't want to spend oodles of time if the game is already over. | ||
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On February 23 2015 08:15 The Shining wrote: Ebwop: I really find it telling that Trfel can find better defenses for JJB than JJB can. Originally typed Trfel by mistake. It should be noted, trfel also did a better defense of me than I did. Which points to trfel simply being better at defending. | ||
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On February 23 2015 08:34 The Shining wrote: This point is bad. I am not in any danger of being mislynched at this point. Trfel seems to still be leaning strong town on me, Zlefin is very obstinate about us all being town and Palmar being scum, and you and Palmar alone cannot lynch me. And Palmar is only slightly suspicious. Also, being original in being the only one being suspicious of me. So why would he think about you voting me? Its a wasted vote, and a weird point for you to bring up. I'm annoyed at you about this. Please don't misrepresent my position. I stated my position VERY clearly and repeatedly in thread. I never said you were all town and tere was scum. I said it was the best lynch by a sufficiently large margin that that wasn't going to change with more analysis. | ||
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On February 23 2015 09:56 The Shining wrote: I'm done sparing feelings. Bad post is bad. I capitalized the word KNOW for the exact reason you made this post. The sentence is a very clear "I feel stronger about it now that I KNOW I'm right" inferring I didn't know I was right beforehand. Thank you for paraphrasing what I said but wording it so that it reflects negatively on me. Trfel, you casing Zlefin? You seem to think JJB isn't the lynch here. You are who I least suspect. If you stick by your hints, I assume you'll be looking into Zlefin. apologies for misreading that one then. | ||
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On February 23 2015 09:47 The Shining wrote: WTF is this post?! If you feel she's the best lynch, you think she's scum. By poe, you think everyone not her is town. If that's not true, you don't think she's scum. IF YOU DONT THINK SHES SCUM, WTF WERE YOU VOTING HER?! OK. Be annoyed. I'm not here to coddle you. I'm sorry you feel I misrepresented you. I don't feel that way. you're just plain wrong here. It's called estimates, not certainty. | ||
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On February 23 2015 10:23 Trfel wrote: And The Shining, I agree with jarjarbinks, I think you are tunneled on him. If I find a lynch that I think looks better, I just ask you to consider it with an open mind. And night kills are WIFOM, it will be hard to make any conclusion at all based on it. I concur in feeling that shining is tunneling on jjb. | ||
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On February 23 2015 14:54 Trfel wrote: This quote looks really weird with a flipped Silverarte..... Look at these sentences (all from the same quote, stand alone, I just removed the stuff in between. If Silverarte flips, he is setting himself up for pushing Trfel, taking credit for voting scum. And if Trfel flips town, he's setting himself up to push Tere in response. This post looks bad Just a few random thoughts from zlefin's filter. I really think that the scum is zlefin, not jarjarbinks. Jarjarbinks has seemed more like town. There is a fair associative case between zlefin and Silverarte as well (notably how hard zlefin tried to avoid having Silverarte drag him down). Look at how zlefin's read on Silverarte changed. First he was suspicious of her for being inactive, then he gave her a cautious town read (which I feel is unwarranted), and then when suspicion picked up on Silverarte, he switched back to scum reading her. when did I give silver a cautious town read? I'm asking because I don't remember doing that; and my point system shows no town points for silver. | ||
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On February 23 2015 14:54 Trfel wrote: This quote looks really weird with a flipped Silverarte..... Look at these sentences (all from the same quote, stand alone, I just removed the stuff in between. If Silverarte flips, he is setting himself up for pushing Trfel, taking credit for voting scum. And if Trfel flips town, he's setting himself up to push Tere in response. This post looks bad Just a few random thoughts from zlefin's filter. I really think that the scum is zlefin, not jarjarbinks. Jarjarbinks has seemed more like town. There is a fair associative case between zlefin and Silverarte as well (notably how hard zlefin tried to avoid having Silverarte drag him down). Look at how zlefin's read on Silverarte changed. First he was suspicious of her for being inactive, then he gave her a cautious town read (which I feel is unwarranted), and then when suspicion picked up on Silverarte, he switched back to scum reading her. I see nothing wrong with trying to figure out likely pairs. There were 2 mafia in the game, and they're likely do at least a little coordination. So looking to see which pairs seem more cooperative is useful, and which people seem to be genuinely at odds. | ||
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On February 23 2015 14:58 Trfel wrote: There doesn't really need to be a case on zlefin. It's really simple. He's being extremely cautious. His posts seem to be putting in effort to look towny. He is really cautious with his stance on Silverarte. He's always staying under the radar, seeming to scumhunt but never really memorable. One of those alone is not incriminating, but combined? I think he is scum trying to avoid being lynched at all costs. I'm going to sleep now. Very interested to hear thoughts. I'd say I'm cautious in general. | ||
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My view was approximately this (I say approximately because coming up with exact %'s is hard and unreliable, but it shows my viewpoint accurately): Tere 60% chance scum Trfel 25% chance scum JJB 10% chance scum Shining 5% chance scum. Since there's one scum, the chances of course add up to 100%. With odds like that, and those odds being the result of everything that had happened in the thread up until then; post analysis, filter reading, etc; then Tere was the best lynch. Doesn't mean guaranteed scum, or that everyone else is town. It means the highest probability of being scum, by a sufficiently large margin, that new analysis from a third day won't change the odds by enough to change who the best lynch is (since 3rd day new material won't be large enough to change the much larger amount of content that came before). | ||
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But I can't make anything of it. If shining was mafia, there was little need to stir the pot when he was already the most townread player and hence likely to survive a lylo. Sure it bulks up his towncred which would help if he survives the night (seeing as mafia in this game has been killing towniest players); but I think he'd have been fine without that, due to the oft-pointed to wifom of NKs. Given the oddity of his play, and that his case on JJB was rather weak (not horrible, a case with some merit, but with real weaknesses, it felt much like Tere's case on Trfel); I feel more like Shining goal wasn't to target JJB per se, but to do a push to get reactions we could gauge in case the lynch turned out bad. | ||
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Towniest: Shining Zlefin JJB Trfel Scummiest: But there's my ranking, though I'm considering swapping trfel and JJB. I haven't done another filter dive on JJB yet, and I need to do that to decide how I feel. | ||
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On February 23 2015 08:07 jarjarbinks wrote: lol there won't be a tomorrow! You are showing that you are trying, which draws confusion. After some analysis you go ahead and sheep shining's read because it is your only way out from getting lynched. And don't even think I missed that feel question from you before you decided to finally vote for me. You were definitely checking to see if I thought about voting shining, so you can change the way you are making your reads. this post concerns me, as JJB tends to be unsure about things, with lots of caveats. While this post shows a high level of certainty about something that's inherently unclear. | ||
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I simply used numbers that felt about right. There is no need to figure out %s that exactly, so I didn't bother to, only enough to demonstrate the point. | ||
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It depends whether by townread you mean thinking someone is town, or thinking something pushes someone closer to being town. If the latter, yes; if the former, not really, it looks too neutral for that. | ||
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I tend to be precise in my word usage, and if people misread things because they aren't being careful about the words used, it tends to irk me. Also, correcting people misreading things is good. If you want to argue about whether an action is scummy or not, you need to know what the actual action is; if you're misreading the action itself, arguing about how the action appears seems pointless. | ||
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NK analysis is still wifom, but we can try to make something out of it, though the simplest explanation still looks to be best here. | ||
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On February 24 2015 10:23 Trfel wrote: Is that really what it is? I thought that the rule in question only applied if it was clear that it would be that way before the day began. Therefore, I think if we have a 1-1-1 split, whoever gets voted for first is the one who is lynched. That said, we had better have two people on the same target. well, that's not how I read it, but you can ask those in charge. The logic for it would fully apply to a 1-1-1 split, making sure it's not a vote race, because vote races are bad for deciding the game. It just occurs to me, it must be logically possible for a mafia game to tie, if there's a lylo mislynch, but the remaining two people are the scum and a vigilante with a bullet left, and they kill each other at night. | ||
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On February 24 2015 10:24 jarjarbinks wrote: Sorry guys, this read analysis is taking me forever. On page 6 of zlefin. Honestly I think both NK wifom and lych WIFOM are worth more than people credit for. I don't think it's 50/50. Although some people generally have better reads than others. With no real vet exp on Shining, I would have to think that there's a better chance that he was killed for his reads than to draw confusion. That super long case on me sure has me looking awful here lol no problem, take your time and get it right (while allowing enough time for people to look over your choice, if you wish) | ||
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Also, you keep saying the nonsense that I had silver as a cautious townread, dude, seriously, wtf? I already explained that twice, and the plain wording of the actual thing you quoted does not put silver as a townread, nor does my point system ever point to silver as town. | ||
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On February 24 2015 13:21 Trfel wrote: zlefin 1. We start knowing that zlefin's play is extremely cautious. I feel that his play generally fits what would be expected from an extremely cautious scum. 2. When I read this post at this time, it almost makes me wonder if he is being too suspicious to be town. I'm not sure that a town player in his first game would even consider the possibility of two mafia working together to be town read this early in the game. Any thoughts on this? 3. This post seems to be showing some suspicion to inactivity, which coincidentally includes mafia Silverarte. Note that he says that inactivity seems weird, but is probably not a sign of being scum. This could be a mafia being sure to show some suspicion of a scum buddy, but also being sure not to go too far with it. 4. This post is more of what I referenced in the first post I linked. I don't think it means anything, but I'm still interested in thoughts. 5. I don't know what to make of zlefin's original idea to lynch me for information. It's certainly unique, and I am not sure that scum would naturally think of doing this. That said, it has a good mafia motivation of doing something unique and it can potentially be used as a small excuse to not have better reads. 6. It still seems strange that zlefin asks people what he should do. It feels as if he is trying to make sure that his actions are considered correct by everyone else. 7. If zlefin agreed with my reasons that Hier could be town, why is he not considering finding a scum lynch instead? This seems strange. 8. Zlefin gave Silverarte -1 in his table. This seems a bit suspicious, like he is making sure not to give too much town credit to his scum buddy. It's perfectly fine to leave inactives at null. 9. I don't know what to think about posts like this. Thoughts? (the last one on the page) 10. This feels a bit too self-conscious. 11. I still think that this read on Silverarte is strange, and he seems to provide an incorrect judgement of Silverarte's filter while still leaving a lot of room for interpretation. He leaves a probe for other people's thoughts here, as if he wants to see if he is right. He did not do so for the above post linked about ElyAs. 12. By the time that zlefin made this post, The Shining's filter didn't feel that great. The Shining didn't provide many original reads in this time frame. Zlefin also seems committed to making a read on everyone, which seems odd. 13. This looks like zlefin trying to see if he is too easily connected with Silverarte. And the last sentence doesn't need to be added by a town!zlefin here. 14. Zlefin moved Silverarte from weak town to scum here. Then zlefin probed everyone for scumreads, and as a result, decided to vote for Silverarte. At this point, most everyone was scumreading Silverarte, so for a cautious zlefin, going for the bus here is the safe play and it is justified. Right before this, he probed the entire thread for reads, and he didn't seem to use those reads for anything other than this vote. Zlefin didn't seem to think that I was actually in danger of being lynched, and that is why he stuck to the bus. 15. Zlefin "has to recommend" voting for Silverarte over me. Has to? Bad wording for town!zlefin. 16. This post shows just far zlefin's stance on Silverarte is falling. When he gave her a favorable read earlier. 17. This post suggests that zlefin hasn't been paying attention to flips before this one, didn't realize that vanilla townie was a role, or both. Had zlefin received a vanilla townie role PM, that might have made him more likely to realize that vanilla townie is in fact a role. 18. This wording makes it seem that not only is zlefin going ahead with a pre-day lynch, he is refusing to consider alternatives and is removing himself from blame should it go wrong. | ||
zlefin
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1. I'm extremely cautious in general. 2. WIFOM analysis directly implies the possibility of such things. I read up on the game and read some of the manuals and guides before playing. 3. or it could just be valid and true on its face, which it is. 6. god forbid a new player ask for opinions on what to do! 8. it's also well-noted in the guides that inactivity can be a sign of mafia. 12. what's odd about trying to get a read on everyone in the game? that's kinda the point. 13. again, on its face a reasonable question. and boohoo a reduntant sentence. 14. already answered, use reading comprehension. 15. that's mighty thin; since it's just me talking like myself (sometimes I talk a bit formal). 17. I didn't quite understand the mafia rules, I thought it just said whether people were town/mafia, not what role they got, when they were killed. do you get all the rules of a game right the first time you play it? | ||
zlefin
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so, with both filters in mind: Conclusion 1: Trfel's filter looks a lot better than JJBs filter objectively. lots of scumhunting, right emotions, good analysis Conclusion 2: Trfel is a much better player than myself or JJB by a significant margin. (does better job of defending people than they themselves do, among other things) I've said before Trfel is either town, or a well-played scum, others (IIRC tere at least, probably more people) have remarked on this as well. I'm not sure how to adjust for that. i.e.: filter strength / player strength for each of them. | ||
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You don't have to respond. | ||
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Not that that's actually the proper contrapositive. | ||
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I don't see how you can possibly call that a town read. | ||
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"but I'm not sure if that's a town sense I'm getting, or just general friendliness, I think it might just be the friendliness, because when I think of specific issues of concern I had with elyas (low overall quantity, lack of originality) it looks like those are still present, though definitely not to the same problematic degree as Elyas's filter." which is a pretty clear note that it has similar issues that elyas's had; and asks whether the town impression is a result of actual towniness, or is a misread, since the objective characteristics do not support the town part. | ||
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On February 25 2015 13:05 jarjarbinks wrote: Notes on Zlefin: General Play: Tends to scumread the average person about 2.35 times compared to townreading them and about 1.5 times more than he defends himself. He made a total of 114 reads on people. People: Top people he made reads on (proportionally per phase) 1. Hier 2. Silver 3. JJB 4. Tere 5. Trf 6. Rso 7. Shining 8. Ely I find many things interesting about this. First, look at the top four people, all the lynched people. Also, look at the bottom. His top scumread (at the time before his flip) and townread (at the time before his flip) are AT THE BOTTOM. His Scum/Townread Ratio: 1. Shining (4) 2. Trf (3.33) 3. Tere (3) 4. Ely (3) 5. Silver (2.33) 6. Me (1.14) 7. Rso (1) 8. Hier (1) Things that Bother Me (I feel this is much stronger): 1. I generally considered Hier to be on zlefin’s “top scum” list D1 with Rso on his “top town” list D1. Why did he read them the same way? 2. Why would Ely be his top scumread when he made the least amount of reads (per phase) on him? I know Ely wasn’t an active player, but still. 3. Silver was at about the average for the Scum/Townread Ratio, despite being his #2 target for making reads. Which means that he talked about silver a lot, but didn’t really lean to far one way or another (compared to average) on making silver look bad. If I could bold this point I would. It looks like he is making sure he is talking about silver enough, but not scumming her more than he should. Yet he bussed the vote. 4. His top four people (mentioned above) are all guys he wants to lynch. This shows that he isn’t really providing too many reads outside what he absolutely has to. A prime example to follow this up is Day 3 with killing Tere/Palmer. in response to 2: iirc I was reviewing the people I didn't have reads on, and Ely's filter was simply very weak and empty. To what extent does the amount of reads on people vary by how many posts they make? Does a person who posts more get read more often? Does one person making reads on a person encourage others to make a read on that person? Not really relevant now I guess, but things to consider for your model. 1: I don't remember. | ||
zlefin
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On February 25 2015 12:21 jarjarbinks wrote: Posting my case on Trf. I need to go back and fix zlefin's numbers since I last posted and make his case more clear. Zlef if you are around, please try to answer what Trf did about categories. I think I can generally make solid conclusions here, but I am prone to mistakes. Not giving you the opportunity to alleviate a mistake of mine would be biased and unfair. I'm unclear what you're asking for here, since you're asking it prior to your other new lengthy posts, so I'm not sure if those factored this in or not. I'll reread the section to see if I can figure out what you're looking for. | ||
zlefin
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On February 25 2015 20:53 zlefin wrote: I'm unclear what you're asking for here, since you're asking it prior to your other new lengthy posts, so I'm not sure if those factored this in or not. I'll reread the section to see if I can figure out what you're looking for. Ok, I think I found the question: it's about how my views varied over the course of the game? in general I'd think the history of the points I posted would serve better than my memory for that (it's the ratios that matter most). since night 2 my views have changed very little, just a mild boost to you jjb, that put you scummier than trfel (by a slight margin) If you want more details than the history of the point system provides, I'll be on today to answer it. | ||
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On February 25 2015 13:35 jarjarbinks wrote: I'm off to bed. I will be back about 1-2 hours before EOD. Sorry if this puts things in a bad position, but after work I will come straight home to help answer questions and put general thoughts on Trf's cases. I can't say much to Zlef's to defend myself, so I won't unless he posts another case on me. that's fine, it doesn't really matter unless one of you changes your vote. You've already answered the cases well. | ||
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On February 25 2015 23:59 Trfel wrote: Jarjarbinks, some questions for you. Why is the case that I bused Silverarte weak? Why does my read analysis look good? Just because of the large number of reads? My usage of my vote is poor. I haven't been very good at using my vote to pressure, so I mostly just wait until I'm sure who I want to lynch and vote for them then. Zlefin, in Night 3 you listed the percentages for each player being scum. With Palmar dead, I have the highest remaining percentage. Why did you not vote for me? Because of the case shining made on JJB; as well as the results of my review of the filters. I thought I said in that post (or nearby) that those were the %'s I'd had from earlier (day3/N2), not the current ones (which would depend on the analysis of shining case and the new filter dives I hadn't done yet). | ||
zlefin
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On February 26 2015 01:31 Trfel wrote: Zlefin, I believe that you said that you read all of the TL mafia guides. However, these guides also say that lynching for information is almost always a terrible idea. Several times on day 1 you mentioned lynching for information. Please explain? not all of them, some of them. And I read them quite awhile ago (maybe a year, maybe more, hard to say), so I probably forgot portions of them. | ||
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maybe you're system doesn't account for the strength of things well enough; since I did have silver as one of my top 2 scummiest whenever I asked for people's ranking, not sure if that was N1 or early day2 | ||
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On February 26 2015 09:02 Half the Sky wrote: GGs everyone. Credit to JJB for solo rallying. Nice attempt at the end zflein and Truffles. A lot of analysis and deception on both ends but everyone has positives to build on and lessons learnt, that's the point of all this. c'mon, my name isn't THAT complicated, you don't have to misspell it by that much ![]() | ||
zlefin
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HAHA game is over, I can edit post-game! this post was a response to rsouls earlier; shoulda just used qutoe weith the high posting rate now. | ||
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On February 26 2015 09:13 Trfel wrote: Seriously, apologies to all townies. I tried, I really did. apology accepted. PS I kneecap you.. | ||
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On February 26 2015 09:18 Trfel wrote: This is a formal request to all mafia teams to kill me on Night 1. I can do sort of okay on Day 1 but I don't know what to do after that XD yes you do, you did fine. | ||
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