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On November 27 2016 06:21 Acrofales wrote:Errata I noticed I put an [N] in the topic for normal, but [N] is for newbie. This is not a newbie game. While new players are welcome, there is no coaching available. IIRC, [M][N] is for mini normal; newbie games are [M][N][W] mini normal newbie. So no issue.
To confirm, variable day = deadline will move; day ends with hammer and next deadline based on nightpost timestamp? What is the planned initial starting time/deadline?
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On November 27 2016 17:09 Acrofales wrote: Because it's a small game, I hope to start by December 1, but I don't know how long signups will take: it will start when it's full. Sorry I wasn't clear, I was asking about the time of day that you intend to use as your start time -- which will dictate the deadlines for at least the first N+D cycle. Yes, I am aware that the time could subsequently shift due to instant majority lynch mechanics -- it's just that I have reduced availability this upcoming Fri/Sat and just wanted to see if I can safely and responsibly sign in now, or if I should hold off.
I don't see any rules prohibiting the doc from protecting themselves, or protecting the same target consecutive nights. Please clarify if allowed to do so.
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No replacements this game, folks. derp
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if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1. 45% raw odds of fulfilling prerequisites for the plan, awesome!
we can confirm up to five players as town sweet, even if no redchecks, we can find all five town by D3, which PoE the other two for confscum! good job!
such plan much wow
any NA still ard or am I stuck waiting for EU to wake up?
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On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote: pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. In what number system?
I made absurdly town-favored assumptions and got 45%. Assume scum ignore blue claims and always blindly shoot into town at random. Night 0 scum kills 1/5 of us. 3/5 = 60% to hit VT, ensuring both doc and cop survive to Day 1. Assume no mislynch on Day 1. Night 1 scum kills 1/4 of us. 1/4 = 25% to hit doc, i.e. 75% for doc to survive to Day 2. Raw odds 75% * 60% = 45% overall to satisfy prereqs "of if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1"
That's under the most town-favored set of assumptions. Even lower probability in any actual reality.
I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring What a convenient thing to say now.
On December 06 2016 07:48 Koshi wrote: Hi. Copclaim pls? If this was a rxn test, I hope you got what you wanted.
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G'day folks. RIP Koshi.
It's iml mylo, so I'm not exactly raring to go tying nooses. And it's early in the day yet. But scumhunting can't wait. You got to work with what you have.
Tumblewood Definitely fishy. As Chairman Ray points out, TW talks plan, gets it all wrong. But what really sets the alarms off for me is his tone and progression.
TW is definitely aware that state of the game = D1 mylo, with his opening post. + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2016 07:45 Tumblewood wrote: oh hey we start at night so I guess we're in Mylo already?
And then there's his plan: + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2016 10:19 Tumblewood wrote: so... plan? cop checks N0 (get conftown or redcheck) cop claims D1 (two conftown). lynch if redcheck cop checks N1 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop reveal check D2, doc claims D2 (four conftown). lynch if redcheck cop checks N2 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop, probably dies reveal check D3 (five conftown). lynch if redcheck so throughout the game we can confirm up to five players as town if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1. other possibilities are confirm 4 town and 1 mafia or 3 town and 2 mafia by D3.
I guess if cop or doc dies tonight we just play like normal Several mechanical things about the plan rub me the wrong way here:- sells copchecks as conftown without deadcopflip
- sells high numbers of conftown, when
in all likelihood absolutely half of them are going to be dead conftown
- "D3 (five conftown)" sounds amazing, but is complete false advertising. Relies on (unreasonably?) optimistic view that we manage to lynch a (claimed) redcheck from (claimed) cop. Failing that, we've already lost: D3 is a 2-2 voterace if no-lynch on first two days.
Going from "D1 mylo" to "just get to D3 and we're set!" is just... I'm incredulous. I mean, even if you're just blindly enumerating the possibilities, going from N0 to D1, N1, etc... mylo isn't something that just slips your mind -- you KNOW you have TWO days to make ONE correct lynch. That's not a given. I'm not sure even an incredibly negligent townie would so flippantly irresponsible as to practically take it for granted.
His tone/progression is also problematic.- The plan was presented seriously, if maybe a bit tentatively. ("so... plan?"). I detect no joke, no troll, no facetiousness.
- The plan is clear followup from NU's #43 starting to talking about whether blues should claim / VTs should not fakeclaim.
NU's post (and meta) suggests he's a player who could be enticed with plans revolving around setup mechanics, so #45 could be working that angle
- When plan is attacked for bad math, #52 still bad math -- conscientious townie would have triple checked! -- casually sells bad math ("odds slightly favor us") while distancing from the plan at the same time ("I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring").
- So eager to circlejerk with NU and Koshi, except + Show Spoiler [tinfoil] +
- Gets all worked up N0 and early D1 about him giving a shit and others apparently not, trying way too hard to oversell his noise as activity before others even begin engaging
Hi ExO. I've been casually drafting since usually no one's around when I'm up. But since you're here, Imma dump what I have so far, and let's talk.
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On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote: I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios. But do you agree that (conscientious) town would not carelessly only post in best case scenarios? Because that's the part that makes all the plan fluff at least anti-town, if not immediately obv scum.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me. Can you elaborate? I agree with NU's buddy-suspicion and see it possibly going further back to trying to put focus on plans. Help me see why it's not a buddy, and moreso not straight up painting them all green together with Koshi.
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I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74.
NU, can you explain your response to TW's plan? + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2016 10:49 NeverUnlucky wrote: No, TW, bad plan.
Get the medic to claim D1. D1 - 3 c. town or 2 ctown, 1 mafia. N1 - 1 c.town dies D2 - 3 ctown, so 2 cmafia / 2 ctown, 1cmafia / 1 ctown, last cmafia GG in 2/3 scenarios.
Your method is risking the cop to check the medic and thus losing in efficiency. My method is pro and should be sheeped =))))))
You still around? I don't mean explain plan or math or scenarios. I mean explain your reaction to TW's plan, what you thought TW was doing, and your intent -- what were you doing with #46. Were you droll, troll, or actually seriously asking if TW still around so you can keep talking plan math? In light of TW's possible buddying later N0, do you agree that his earlier behavior also starts looking more insidious?
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On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote: Just sat down and actually read TW's plan before, I kinda didn't pay much attention to it at first. It's actually dogshit assuming cop and doc are going to make it through to d2 with everythink hunky dory, so much to the point that I have a hard time thinking he meant it to be taken seriously. This is snark.
This might be half in jest
This exhaustively enumerates N0 thru up to D3 and lists what he sees as all three possible scenarios at D3. That's too much effort for simply joking or trolling.
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+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 20:40 ExO_ wrote: I was typing a post out and deleted it because I've come to the conclusion we're in a really shitty spot. But the conclusion I've come to is:
Cop should claim ASAP
This is the situation we are in:
mislynch and lose. In an ideal world, cop doesn't claim today and we move on to night, coming back the next day with cop claiming and giving information. However if Scum, or the Cop is on the chopping block today, they will almost certainly claim/fake claim cop. If nobody is claiming cop at EoD it almost certainly means we are lynching VT.
Our focus has to be getting through TODAY. We don't have the luxury of being able to reliably lynch 2 people. Our best bet of figuring out who is telling the truth, and who is lying is to get the discussion about it happening now. If nobody Counter Claims Cop, we're fine. If 2 people do claim cop, we want as much discussion time about it as possible to work it out.
This mean cop is essentially going to die at night, and that kinda sucks. But I think its our best bet to actually get out of day 1. I can't see scum just laying down and dying if they are on the chopping block so the Claim/Counter Claim scenario happens in our best case scenario. We should get it going NOW instead of later.
This post reads townie as fuck to me and I am just shy of throwing my full support behind this reasoning. The one thing that has me hesitant here is that I'm not sure we're at the point where we're definitely lynching today. No lynch / no consensus is still a clear possibility with 4/6 votes needed for IML.
But we're definitely in a very shitty place and I think the other concern is that N1 is 25% dead cop at random, or may even be a straight up bluesnipe -- so the cop may not have the luxury of time here.
I also believe I might have an inkling of what you typed out and deleted. Maybe we're thinking the same thing that we don't want to speak about yet.
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ExO what's your take on C-Ray? You said he looked sketchy earlier. Is it his wording ("I'd lynch ..." being quick to lynch at mylo) or the logic that you disagreed with or is there something else?
I was originally rather uncomfortable with how C-Ray was just tarring both TW and NU with the same brush without evaluating between the two, but #106 explained that to some extent for me, insofar that at least I see he's coming from the angle where they have to be scum together. I'm not completely convinced that both scum would come out together and try to dictate badplan to town, though, something doesn't quite click there when I try to find the scum motivation -- it seems unnecessarily YOLO when all it takes for scum to win is one mislynch.
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Around for another couple hours give or take, mostly IAW getting my youtube fix, will pop in sporadic to F5. NA hurry and wake up already, so I can actually talk to you and not be forced to just leave messages. Curse scum for killing the only EU.
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On December 08 2016 01:11 NeverUnlucky wrote: Also, I may be digging too deep here, but TW’s progression on Koshi [...] he backed down on his statement of Koshi acting town when I questioned him. #72 TW states NK between TW, NU, Koshi. #74 NU asks TW why NU, TU, and Koshi are town #77 TW answers that NU, TW, Koshi town due to give-a-shitness #78 13 min later TW changes his mind, decides Koshi town for "the whole 'respect kill' thing" and had not intended to "lump him in with [NU+TW]" [for give-a-shitness]. You misread / misunderstood / misremember (misrepresent?) I don't see him changing his mind about Koshi being town. He changed his mind about why Koshi is town for him -- but not in response to your questioning (#74) since his answers were both after. (#77,#78)
I did flag his behavior over the course that sequence of posts, though. #101:
In any case, those posts scream circlejerk to me. Why is he making such a hardsell of himself as townie based on just noisy activity on N0, without being under fire? Why such rush to form towncircle?
In hindsight, did TW prepare to paint himself green with Koshi's blood?
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On December 08 2016 01:11 NeverUnlucky wrote: Meanwhile, cakepie, what are your thoughts on Ray’s follow up posts regarding his question to me and TW and his explanation of his first d1 post? Already addressed.
On December 07 2016 22:02 cakepie wrote:I was originally rather uncomfortable with how C-Ray was just tarring both TW and NU with the same brush without evaluating between the two, but #106 explained that to some extent for me, insofar that at least I see he's coming from the angle where they have to be scum together. I'm not completely convinced that both scum would come out together and try to dictate badplan to town, though, something doesn't quite click there when I try to find the scum motivation -- it seems unnecessarily YOLO when all it takes for scum to win is one mislynch. I see where he's coming from, I see why he makes a double case on the two of you, I understand his arguments. But I have difficulty buying into his case because it doesn't quite pass the test of "now why on earth would the scumteam do this".
I can't fault him for seeing your response as distancing, since #92 has you raising buddying suspicions while still reading TW "more town than maf". And you didn't raise suspicions of TW sooner, but only when asked -- you had a whole hour in which to do it before he asked. On the other hand, coming into the thread you're pretty much guaranteed to be focused on Ray's D1 entry for a bit since he fingers you. And it's not exactly like you had a very strong townread on TW, it was more of a purely activity-based townlean on TW given no one else seemed to be playing at the time. So his concern is not unjustified, but it might be a bit of a stretch to label #92 as distancing.
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I have some other comments/responses I’d like to make but my course is starting atm. I’ll share those when I’m home in about 8 hours. Ugh. Hope you can stay up late a bit and I'll maybe be up before you go beddybye.
Meanwhile you owe me an answer for #104. Also more thorough re-eval on TW if you could, please, in light of new insights.
Take a look at ExO for me especially #112 just in case I've incorrectly tunneled him town.
And + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote: If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. On December 07 2016 00:39 NeverUnlucky wrote: What do you think of [...] cakepie entering with math and hopeless checking in to check out? do you have something against math?
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On December 08 2016 03:27 Hopeless1der wrote: cakepie is it okay if I just sheep you today? No.
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Like wtf H1, at least try. Maybe we've exhausted the available material on TW, but tell me something about NU or ExO or CRay.
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You've given me some insight into something that was of interest to me. Thanks.
On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote: I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion. But would you agree that it doesn't quite pass muster for both scum NU+TW to come out and try to dictate plan to town?
On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote: ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread Is this for #107 + #110 or is there something else that makes you say this?
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I have to call it a night here. Figure that most of you NA folks are going about your day with work, school and whatnot. Hopefully at least some of you are still up when I get back on tomorrow.
- H1 thanks for our brief exchange. Please work with the others while I'm asleep.
- TW explain yourself. There's quite a bit you have to answer for already so I don't see a need to give you any additional specific questions at this point.
- ExO you owe me an answer for #115. Can you please elaborate on C-Ray and other stuff in #98.
- C-Ray, what would NU+TW scumteam accomplish by having both scummers come into thread and push (bad/misleading) plan and stick out like sore thumbs touting their activity and shit-giving when town has been moderately quiet night 0? If it's not a NU+TW scumteam, then which of the two is scum? And who of the remaining players is their scumbuddy?
- NU you already have several questions from me. Remember to filter ExO for me please.
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Forced myself up. Brain was overdrive, couldn't rest well anyway. Ugh. I have things to talk to each of you about so I hope you're all going to be present for a bit. Lemme get coffee and then we'll chat. Feel free to leave stuff for me and I'll get back to you at some point.
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On December 08 2016 11:46 Chairman Ray wrote: In my experiences, mafia tend to buddy up more when they're the most active ones, and draw distance when town are the most active ones. If the two mafia were the active ones in the middle of a quiet town, I could totally see them patting each other on the back for being active. Isn't that a bit circular and self-reinforcing? 1. Active players seem to buddy in quiet N0 -> 2. mafia together? -> 3. oh look mafia buddying in quiet town -> 4. go back to step 2
Furthermore, I think it looks more like only one (TW) is actively buddying. I think NU might already started smelling a rat and was questioning why/how TW formed that absurd TW/NU/Koshi circle:
On December 07 2016 15:48 cakepie wrote:I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74. I believe that NU could be genuinely (if naively) broaching the possibility of "If VTs agree never to fakeclaim, all CCs become MvT". TW jumps at the opportunity to gain easy towncred by enumerating possible scenarios according to mechanics, and to engage NU to try to start a buddybuddy going jerking over setup.
TW's scumbuddy is somewhere else, and I think they could be tentatively drawing distance at that point in time, with town?NU active, soondead!Koshi and uncertainty over how active the rest of us would behave.
If you're going down the road of associative reads I think there's more interesting interactions than just backpatting.
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On December 08 2016 10:49 Tumblewood wrote: re: your scumread on me ok so I made a plan and I didn't think it through all the way. how can you, from that information, conclude that I was mafia trying to mislead you (and it's not like I was trying to steer you away from any plan — there was no plan at the time) and not town just trying to figure the game out? I don't even see the motive besides making myself look better. and the Koshi thing: in a world where TW says something that would totally make sense from a townie who mistyped, one man sets out to explain how it was an intentional, subversive scum move. Weakass swatting at easy tinfoil bits without addressing the crux of the matter.
You're not mafia trying to mislead me. You might be mafia trying to mislead NU. "Mislead" isn't limited to steering town toward or away from any particular plan. Your "plan" post is you starting to try to get into NU's good books, which escalates into full blown buddying. Are you really town just trying to figure the game out? I think you're scum trying to make yourself look better.
You swat at the tinfoil by countering you simply mistyped and we shouldn't read into you separating Koshi from NU and yourself. So you claim you're not painting yourself green with his blood. But I don't see you refuting the baseless buddying on the basis of "activity", which is overhyped noise in your case. At least NU asked some good questions during the night.
You didn't address how you suddenly go from "D1 mylo" to optimism for D3. Townies are allowed to be wrong, I don't think but townies are allowed to be negligent. So let's suppose your planpost was an honest mistake. When I posit that your plan relies on a weak premise, you don't even check. You snark back at me confidently with incorrect math.
If you're town, tell me what kind of flawed town?math you used to get 25 and 42. And why do you divide 25/42? I could speculate but I’d rather hear you explain it. If you made an honest mistake, show us how you erred and maybe we'd buy it.
Oh, and you choose the most tinfoil bit of my case to OMGUS me. Heee, that tickles.
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On December 08 2016 12:19 Tumblewood wrote: also funny th\t 1der's list of who to lynch is the reverse of mine, perfectly (except no lynch is still at the top ofc) Nice OMGUS.
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On December 08 2016 11:11 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 16:37 ExO_ wrote: Actually I just realized I misread TWs posts he never says rewarding town. I'm starting to think I'm going a bit crazy this post (+ sequence before it) feels very candid. it is hard as scum to fake viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint to reflect that. also it would be a lot of attention to detail to fake a mistake and react realistically. Does this make him town for you? What is your read on ExO?
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+ Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 10:05 NeverUnlucky wrote:Back from school! Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 15:48 cakepie wrote:I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74. NU, can you explain your response to TW's plan? + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2016 10:49 NeverUnlucky wrote: No, TW, bad plan.
Get the medic to claim D1. D1 - 3 c. town or 2 ctown, 1 mafia. N1 - 1 c.town dies D2 - 3 ctown, so 2 cmafia / 2 ctown, 1cmafia / 1 ctown, last cmafia GG in 2/3 scenarios.
Your method is risking the cop to check the medic and thus losing in efficiency. My method is pro and should be sheeped =))))))
You still around? I don't mean explain plan or math or scenarios. I mean explain your reaction to TW's plan, what you thought TW was doing, and your intent -- what were you doing with #46. Were you droll, troll, or actually seriously asking if TW still around so you can keep talking plan math? First off, I think that TW's post was just him voicing what he thought was the optimal scenario for town. As you pointed out, his post was not a troll/joke post, he was legitimately putting forth his plan. I do not see anything malicious in it despite him neglecting the possibility of a blue role dying. My response to his post + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2016 10:49 NeverUnlucky wrote: No, TW, bad plan.
Get the medic to claim D1. D1 - 3 c. town or 2 ctown, 1 mafia. N1 - 1 c.town dies D2 - 3 ctown, so 2 cmafia / 2 ctown, 1cmafia / 1 ctown, last cmafia GG in 2/3 scenarios.
Your method is risking the cop to check the medic and thus losing in efficiency. My method is pro and should be sheeped =))))))
You still around? was me demonstrating that a medic claim optimizes the amount of confirmed town by D1. It was also a follow-up to this post of mine + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 09:33 NeverUnlucky wrote: I agree that cop should claim at day start, and I also think that the medic should claim. NO VT EVER CC's. Force 1 on 1 with mafia or have up to 3 confirmed town if cop gets a green check who lives through the night. I asked if TW was still around to see if I could have a - non math-related - chat with him, which I ended up having with him the following day. Show nested quote +In light of TW's possible buddying later N0, do you agree that his earlier behavior also starts looking more insidious? I don't really get what you mean here. I looked up the definition of insidious, and the two possible meanings of it were: seductive and having a gradual and cumulative effect. When I reread his filter with these two ideas in my mind, I could not understand what made you think that way (other than the posts for which I suspected he was buddying me): -Seductive: None of his N0 posts make me think that he's trying to please or look good -- + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2016 15:52 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 15:34 ExO_ wrote: Hi.
claiming Vanilla Town.
Going back to PoE ugh I hope this isn't "hi I'm VT bye" because night doesn't mean we can't play. especially when you won't get killed for your reads because N0 On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 14:22 cakepie wrote:if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1. 45% raw odds of fulfilling prerequisites for the plan, awesome! we can confirm up to five players as town sweet, even if no redchecks, we can find all five town by D3, which PoE the other two for confscum! good job! such plan much wow any NA still ard or am I stuck waiting for EU to wake up? pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. anyway even if the odds slightly favor us I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring On December 07 2016 00:09 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 15:57 ExO_ wrote:On December 06 2016 15:52 Tumblewood wrote:On December 06 2016 15:34 ExO_ wrote: Hi.
claiming Vanilla Town.
Going back to PoE ugh I hope this isn't "hi I'm VT bye" because night doesn't mean we can't play. especially when you won't get killed for your reads because N0 And what if it is? it's not but for the rest of the game I would have been biased towards lynching you On December 06 2016 07:51 Tumblewood wrote:? On December 06 2016 08:04 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 08:03 Chairman Ray wrote: We got no medic save n0, so shouldn't cop claim come at day? I guess... I quoted some of his posts, but honestly other than the potential buddying posts, all of his filter enters that category. -Having a gradual and cumulative effect : actually, I understand where you're coming from with "Gets all worked up N0 and early D1 about him giving a shit and others apparently not, trying way too hard to oversell his noise as activity before others even begin engaging", and I agree with that statement. #72, 76, 77, 84, 93, 94 are him associating giving a shit and/or being active with town and seeing as he self-categorised himself as giving a shit, it does look like he is trying to sell that he is town. This is especially concerning because he does not try to get others engaged in the thread. He only calls them out for it. Okay, so My method is pro and should be sheeped =)))))) is basically "my plan is much better!" with massive smiley glee. Thanks. I do understand you have the doc claim as N1 sac to flip and confirm doc, in your world where no VT fakeclaims.
As for the second part, close, but you miss my point. Sorry for the confusing language.
#72, 76, 77, 84, 93, 94 are ... Thing is, we already agree about #72 onwards. My question, amended for clarity, is: do you think that in light of #72+ his earlier behavior also starts looking like part of the pattern of buddying?
In other words: Could he be trying to establish a bond with you as far back as #44/45, eventually leading up to #72+? Did scum!bleweed take advantage of the opportunity you presented to earn easy towncred by talking setup and scenarios?
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On December 08 2016 10:56 NeverUnlucky wrote: My point was that he backed down on Koshi acting town when I questioned him. He went from Koshi, him, me are respected and acting town to Koshi is town for the respect kill thing once I asked him to explain how all of us were acting town. That’s the suspicious part about his read progression. Okay, I see now that we won't be able to resolve this due to two possible interpretations of ambiguous wording:
NK is always between me you and Koshi. the other players aren't 'respected' and aren't acting townie either Due to the negation ("the other players aren't"), by formal logic rules, I interpreted this to mean that members of (TW,NU,Koshi) are 'respected' or 'acting townie' (or both). Hence, TW's later correction is merely clarifying that Koshi is 'respected' while you two are 'acting townie'. You interpreted it to mean that members of (TW,NU,Koshi) are 'acting townie' and therefore you think that his later post is a strange reversal. I can see why you'd interpret this way. I don't agree, but I don't see it being productive for us to spend time talking over this minor thing. (Also if you balk at math, I'm not even going bother trying formal logic with you.)
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To follow up on your last one, TW said that me, Koshi, and him were the « respected town ». I find it quite suspect that one of the Three Musketeers was killed while he is trying to be chummy to the other. My point exactly.
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Fair enough. What is your overall evaluation of Ray though? This reads like a lean-town’ish read. Is that what it is? Yes. He is doing original scumhunting in his own way. That's a lot more than what some people have been up to.
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I’m sorry, but these two questions will have to wait for another time (perhaps later tonight if I’m productive). I spent more time than I thought I would just commenting and answering posts on page 6 and still have like 6 flagged posts I’d like to discuss, and I need to get some RL stuff done for tomorrow. Fair enough, if you're really pressed for time then put aside TW and #112 analysis for the time being and do just one thing for me tonight: Dive ExO -- it's just one page atm.
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What is your timezone for future reference? Physically located GMT+8, but that's meaningless -- my sleep cycles are all out of whack. Past couple days it's been more like GMT+3 or +4. I just got up at something like GMT+6 to catch you guys.
Not sure where next. Either I stay up all night to keep talking to you guys leading up to the deadline (6am here) or I wake up at 5am just to catch up frantically with one hour to go while underperforming due to grogginess.
Playing mafia from the wrong side of the planet sucks.
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On December 08 2016 15:26 Tumblewood wrote:wait guys found the confession Seals. Where are the seals.
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Oh, and will everyone please take note that I have ceased to tunneltown ExO. Thanks!
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On December 08 2016 18:35 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 16:16 cakepie wrote: Oh, and will everyone please take note that I have ceased to tunneltown ExO. Thanks! What was the purpose of this post. At first it didn't bother me but the more I think about it, the more it makes no sense. Why say this without explaining it? Do you have any reasoning for town tunneling me, then cancelling it for some reason? Without explanation I can't see a town motivation for posting this
This guy, not even read, doesn't even know where and why I town tunneled him.
Have you been IAW playing that other game again instead of playing the mafia game you signed up for?
I'm drafting something on TW. Will get back to you.
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On December 08 2016 15:29 Tumblewood wrote: cakepie could be town but if so he's town that's really pissing me off. I'm here to find scum and lynch scum, not to coddle you.
You could answer my question about your math and try to show me why you're just a townie who made an honest mistake. Nope.
You could actually elaborate on your comment about ExO that I flagged for your attention. Nope.
You could give proper reads on ExO, that I asked for, or on anyone else for that matter. Nope.
Instead you wail about me jumping at shadows, without offering any alternative targets.
You complain about me being an asshat. Dude I've barely even started.
You casually fling suspicion widely "between cakepie, 1der and ray because none of them have made me lean town at any point." with no clear explanation. Not even a scumread on any of your three listed options? All I see here as justification is the mere fact that you don't have a townread on any of us, whereas presumably NU is still in your "gives a shit" bucket while ExO "feels very candid" -- both for poorly fleshed out reasons.
All you have is a couple of weak townreads? really? mylo does mean we have to be careful not to mislynch. But mylo is not an excuse for being overly cautious to the point that you can't even come up with a single substantiated suspicion. In fact, mylo makes it all the more urgent for us to work hard. This isn't D1 in some 13 player game where you have the luxury of time and mislynches.
Coming back to giving shits. Funny thing is, I do give a shit and for all the suspicion I throw your way, I did leave you a couple of outs. I gave you options, I gave you time, for you to try to prove your towniness but you simply won't take any of them.
I don't see you giving a shit about demonstrating your towniness. I don't see you giving a shit about doing anything actually useful.
#143
On December 08 2016 11:20 Tumblewood wrote: also now there are posts to talk about instead of just setup and an empty void. Right, and what have you done about it?
Jack shit.
What a hypocrite.
You don't actually seem to give a shit; time to remove you from your own town circle.
##Vote Tumblewood
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On December 08 2016 18:52 ExO_ wrote: I'm asking you to explain why you stopped town tunneling me. Just announcing it serves no purpose for town. It doesn't help us in any way. What town motivation do you have for just announcing it without explaining Announcing it serves the purpose that people don't start acting all surprised and worked up when they perceive me 'suddenly' get all up in your face. Cuz, y'know, some folks can't spot hints or read between the lines. Gotta spell it all out.
Not explaining it now has a town motivation of denying information to scum. I don't see a need to explain everything now and give scum time to ponder over it. Town doesn't need my full explanation today (game D1, not real time), but will have it by tomorrow (that is to say, D2.) when it matters.
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On December 08 2016 19:32 ExO_ wrote: I largely agree with your reasoning on TW. But a no lynch is our safest play. I don't like the idea of the game being over if we're wrong, when we can wait for a day, get more information, and hopefully cop stays alive and really makes it easier.
It's a gamble. If we lynch scum today we effectively buy an extra day. But if we guess wrong we lose. I'm not sure im comfortable lynching today, despite how bad TW looks as a whole You do you. I'm pretty much done with TW for now unless we get some earth-shattering revelation. Lynch him today failing which continue lynching him tomorrow.
You "largely agree with [my] reasoning", so what part do you not agree with? Besides the bit about the gamble.
---
Anyhow, we don't have time to muck about. Can't afford to wait for one scum to flip before looking for others. Should be obvious that I'm looking at you next ExO; still in the midst of diving your filter atm. Gotta take a break for dinner and brief relax but when I get back, watch out!
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Well hello.
I'm not right because I wrote a WoT. It's because you've been useless and + Show Spoiler +I don't or want to or have the time to give some highly explained reasons continue to insist on being useless. You don't have to write a WoT to be useful either.
doing the math I multiplied five-sevenths by five-sixths, because I forgot that scum won't kill themselves. There's other things you forgot or got wrong, but this at least settles for me where 25 and 42 came from and establishes for me never to listen to you regarding probabilities because you're terrible at it.
On December 09 2016 00:32 Tumblewood wrote: and if one more punk decides to vote me scum can and will hammer without warning. we are in MyLo, aka lose the game if you're wrong mode. are you really so confident in yourself because you wrote more words than me that you would risk this. for the love of god, don't be stupid Partially correct reaction. You're pleading for town?cakepie to stop being stupid and worried that one fool plus two scum will make 4. I can't find that one fool, though. But you know what, I'll upgrade you to correct on account of panic and such.
Now that I have your attention, try being a bit more useful and I'll reevaluate you on your contribution.
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On December 09 2016 00:46 Tumblewood wrote: speaking of Koshi, cakepie's performance in this game really reminds me of Koshi in R1H mafia.tunneled on me all game with a bad but extensively written case and refused to back down, and also won. Koshi was mafia that game btw
You're trying to apply Koshi meta on me. That's ... disingenuous.
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Anyhow, dinner and relax turned into protracted family time but I'm back working on that ExO angle.
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On December 09 2016 01:13 cakepie wrote:
There's other things you forgot or got wrong, but this at least settles for me where 25 and 42 came from and establishes for me never to listen to you regarding probabilities because you're terrible at it. nvm all error accounted for.
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On December 09 2016 01:27 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 01:14 cakepie wrote: You're trying to apply Koshi meta on me. That's ... disingenuous. fair point, except the part where it's disingenuous. Right, I'm suppose to give you a fair chance here so maybe "disingenuous" isn't the word I'm looking for. But yeah #166 still doesn't earn you any points.
#170 is a start. I've tried to engage Ray without much luck though. He didn't take me up on "NU+TW are not both scum". Not sure how much better you'd fare.
On December 09 2016 01:39 Tumblewood wrote: I have figured out (probably) both the scum out of three people wow, do tell. (Sorry bud, it ain't me)
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On December 09 2016 01:40 Tumblewood wrote: how do I convince people I'm right in a town where no one plays like me or has played with me (except NU, once) You don't "convince people [you're] right". Town finds each other by finding things they agree on because they see something the same way, because they're coming from the same perspective. It's called consensus. For example, I don't fully agree on your ExO TR but I can agree with you that as we approach EoD1 Ray is starting to look strange and entering scum territory for being very one-track-minded on scumming two players together all of D1.
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On December 09 2016 02:12 NeverUnlucky wrote: cakepie, I think you're giving TW too much credit for 170 seeing as he blatantly sheeped my read I'm not unaware of this. I said #170 "is a start" as contrast to #166 which is a non-starter for me. i.e. that's the type of direction he should go in.
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Okay, thoughts on ExO are somewhat roughly cobbled together but I'd rather dump what I have and engage thread.
tl;dr: Despite him being clearly present, I don't find him exactly forthcoming with information, nor trying to communicate ideas clearly. Drops tidbits in maybe stream of consciousness but doesn't elaborate well. He eventually answers some questions but misses others. Lacks progression wrt his position on TW.
#98~#100 could be stream of consciousness, just little snippets. #98 had my attention, but I had such a hard time getting him to clarify more on it.
I ask him in #102 - to consider that posting from town would not be carelessly optimistic - to elaborate why he doesn't think TW was buddying NU I don't think he ever answered.
#107 seems really contrived to me:- + Show Spoiler +
Just sat down and actually read TW's plan he hadn't even read the plans until only just?
- + Show Spoiler +
I have a hard time thinking he meant it to be taken seriously. tries to extend free pass to TW? strange, no one else seems to think TW was joking.
- + Show Spoiler +
NU says (I had a hell of a time trying to copy/paste this quote so I'm just copy pasting the direct portion):
"His posts don't seem like he's trying to appear good rather like he's saying what he thinks."
And I think this is a hella convoluted thing to say. Saying what you think isn't necessarily a town indicator, and conversely trying to appear good isn't soley a scum indicator.
weird transition which he acknowledges is an awkward context switch in #109 -- stream of consciousness takes a detour from looking at TW and what others say about him.
So, he finds NU's wording convoluted, and doesn't agree with NU's assessment -- where does this put ExO wrt TW? NU thinks TW might be genuine town, ExO doesn't think so? Doesn't say? I don't actually find NU's quote there to be convoluted; otoh I have a hard time following where ExO is going with his thoughts here.
- Goes on TW's "reward town for giving a shit" except he soon finds he misread the whole lot
- + Show Spoiler +
On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote: Best lead I have so far. But I'm skeptical. What if I'm just seeing your read and starting to suspect him because of that instead of actual scum slipping. hm :/ "My strongest scumread is on TW but it's not really my scumread cuz cakepie made me do it. cakepie why you force me scumread TW?"
It really lacks coherence, feels like low investment/interest in places. Top it off off with a carelessly wrong read that he immediately abdicates responsibility for.
Then there's the whole "misread 5 as 50" because other games grow huge, at less than halfway through a 7-player nightstart with lowish activity N0. And "oops I didn't know we could no-lynch" in an IML game. Both also reek of low investment and attention.
It took #115 and #127 before I got #129 in response. He focuses on Ray's #106 to explain his disagreement with Ray's logic. All other questions fall by the wayside.
And then again in #161 he "largely agrees" with my TW case and doesn't state what part(s) he disagrees with. The only other time he talked about TW case was the #107 read he had to bin because it was wrong -- a read that was at best hesitant and at worst he was not taking responsibility for. There's zero progression / information for how he got there.
Asking him questions keeps feeling like chasing at shadows for some reason, it's like I see him around, engage him, oh he's gone -- and this happens multiple occasions at different times -- this is probably nothing but it just rubs me the wrong way.
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@NU re H1 The 'cute' (?) thing about H1 is that bit asking permission to sheep. When I deny permission, 124/126 pretty precisely hit upon topics I want people's opinions on, and things I might have missed. There's some level of "I agree with you on these things" coupled with "here's things you want or that might help you". That seems attentive if nothing else.
This though:
On December 09 2016 01:29 Hopeless1der wrote: I'm <-> this close to just putting a vote on you to see if scum mylo victory, but I wont. didn't follow through on it, but I don't like the talk of spite vote?
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Did H1 just vote and bugger off? Meh.
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On December 09 2016 03:18 NeverUnlucky wrote: On the flip side, you had to ask him for his opinion on me/exo/ray for him to provide it which reinforces my point of him being lazy or even reactive rather than proactive. I'll grant "reactive rather than proactive". Maybe lazy to write redundant reads. Certainly not lazy with reading thread and being on top of the state of the game.
On December 09 2016 03:20 NeverUnlucky wrote: I find it hard to believe that his stance on CRay, ExO and me haven't changed since, especially since I think that his reads weren't strong at the time. I see the markedly different effort level too, but I could ascribe it to impending nolynch.
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On December 09 2016 02:48 cakepie wrote: he "largely agrees" with my TW case [...] There's zero progression / information for how he got there.
Hm, maybe not completely zero, but there is this bit:
On December 08 2016 15:27 ExO_ wrote: I don't think cakepie is being an asshat. and I find the tone of your posts here to be odd. Saying they could go either way, instead of saying I'm town and you're clearly wrong I think says a lot about the position you are speaking from. But still there is very little: #98 TW looks Town. <-- no elaboration! #107 "Why are you making me scumread TW?" <-- couched read?! #153 cakepie isn't an asshat and TW's tone is off #161 "largely agrees" with my TW case <-- no elaboration!
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On December 09 2016 02:48 cakepie wrote: Then there's the whole "misread 5 as 50" because other games grow huge, at less than halfway through D1 on a 7-player nightstart with lowish activity N0. And "oops I didn't know we could no-lynch" in an IML game. ebwop: "halfway through D1"
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On December 09 2016 04:01 Hopeless1der wrote: All three of you are in that -null- zone. TW is *still* my priority lynch if a gun was held to my head. CR and ExO havent given much, you've given some to make me think you're not as scummy in general, especially compared to TW. Yet not enough to elevate NU above CR & Exo?
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On December 08 2016 11:11 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 16:37 ExO_ wrote: Actually I just realized I misread TWs posts he never says rewarding town. I'm starting to think I'm going a bit crazy this post (+ sequence before it) feels very candid. it is hard as scum to fake viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint to reflect that. also it would be a lot of attention to detail to fake a mistake and react realistically. TW, just to be clear where I stand on this: it's not "viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint" in my eyes. There's no new evidence or new information; nothing changed materially. He messed up plain and simple. The question is whether the reason for messing up is innocuous or sinister.
On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote: I don't have a good reason for this though, but twice he's said he likes to "reward town for giving a shit".
[snip]
the way he's speaking about "rewarding town" instead of rewarding a player is really fucking off. You reward a player with town cred, you don't "reward town" for speaking.
Best lead I have so far. But I'm skeptical. What if I'm just seeing your read and starting to suspect him because of that instead of actual scum slipping. hm :/ - try to find dirt on TW, finds it difficult; feels "skeptical" of his own "best lead" - blame me for influencing him to tryhard to scumread TW - realize he actually messed up the read, admits error
If he thought his read wasn't exactly good, why not hold off and take another look? It's not a speed contest. There's also an element of feeling somehow compelled or obliged to post a scumread even if he has to force it. Awkward! Finally, insinuating that I'm somehow responsible for forcing him to find suspicion when he didn't suspect TW before. WTF?
No comments on my case, like "I agree/disagree with this part."
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On December 09 2016 04:40 Tumblewood wrote: re: cakepie - ExO's mistake was very likely unintentional. it's not something I've ever seen faked by mafia. if it was a mistake, then the information effectively was new to ExO, even if it was always there. The problem is you're thinking "it's not mafia faking a town!mistake". Whereas I'm exploring "could be mafia committing a forced error".
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On December 09 2016 05:44 Hopeless1der wrote: And yet you still have not given ONE of the binary answers I've prescribed. I don't think your questions are fair. One is from your flawed reading of his post. The other is NAI because OMGUS to the max.
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Taking that busy claim on good faith.
I'm going to bed.
##Unvote ##Vote: no-lynch
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Woke up earlier feeling like shit, rested a bit more over most of the afternoon but I still don't feel too well.
Supposed to be having time off and yet here I am fucking over my health and fucking over my meta by investing so much into the game. =/
A few quick thoughts on TW:
Only quickly skimmed the posts since I went to bed. Haven't done a careful analytical reading of TW's player casing yet. His EoN seems very null at best.
If TW is town, he's 2015 cakepie -- not a flattering thing. Only reason he's not dead yet is because mylo hesitation; definite D1 mislynch in any other game. If TW is town we're pretty fucked, so I really really want him to be scum.
On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote: cakepie Scum. Yeah, I don't like to speak in absolutes, but I fail to find any explanation for how cakepie is town. The levels of omgus are fucking unreal.
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Hey craycray, anything for me?
What do you think of H1 specifically that EoD1 behavior - "i'd spite vote but won't" - unfair "pick one answer now" questions - voting after we've left off
I'm okay with you pushing NU.
I'd really like to see more people interact with H1 because H1 v TW doesn't give me a good baseline to evaluate H1 interactions with me.
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On December 09 2016 12:44 ExO_ wrote:Im sure cakepie will show up soon, and hopefully she can prepare her usual list of things for me to respond to. (Not sure where you got the idea that I'm female, I'm not.)
Outstanding things you haven't responded to me or elaborated about:- Why was TW town to you at #98
- Explain that part in #107 where you are skeptical of your read and couch it in terms of me making you feel obliged to find anything scummy at all on TW.
- in #161 you "largely agree" with my TW case -- what part(s) do you not agrees with?
Maybe this time I'll finally get those answers and elaboration from you, now that I've gone and collated the questions for you in one spot?
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On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote: I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game Easy for you to say this, very hard for me to see your progression and reasons. Can you filter TW for me and tell me which posts are scummy/towny to and why.
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On December 09 2016 19:25 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 19:16 cakepie wrote: What do you think of H1 specifically that EoD1 behavior - "i'd spite vote but won't" - unfair "pick one answer now" questions - voting after we've left off
When hopeless gets back, I would like to hear his answer for this: Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 07:51 Chairman Ray wrote: Also hopeless, why did you vote TW after cakepie and I rescinded? okay, but you haven't answered my questions.
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On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. I'm witholding information that is useful to scum. I'm asking you for information that is not useful to scum. Difference!
Let's say I accept you've been operating on stream-of-consciousness mode. Fine. The problem I'm having with that is that while you go down the list of posts and toss out whatever comes to mind, you're not stopping to elaborate, and you've also missed questions that were embedded in posts. I don't know if you missed them if you're just focused on posting your brief impressions, or if you're deliberately dodging or ignoring.
That's what rubs me the wrong way.
On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me. Seems like a convoluted way to say "I like your case, cakepie, and I trust you and want to try to contribute more to a TW scum case." Again, I don't find you picking at parts of my case and saying what you agree/disagree with.
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On December 09 2016 20:00 ExO_ wrote: #107 You are misconstruing what happened here. If I recall correctly in touhou mafia (assuming I haven't confused you with someone else) I thought you played well and your opening here reminded me of it. So when you started posting a scum case on TW, I looked at it and started to think that yeah TW looks scummy. But I was worried that my impression of your gameplay in touhou mafia was affecting my ability to assess if TW was scummy on my own. I was the fucking host, goddammit! How inattentive can you get?!
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Looks like I really have to spell everything out for you.
On December 09 2016 20:06 ExO_ wrote: What information could you be withholding that is useful to scum? What kind of information could that possibly be? Everything I can think of would be better discussed in town, except if you are the cop. And this should be obvious but the only reason cops information shouldn't be public yet is because we want to get another night of information in before we have to lynch. Information that helps scum bluesnipe by process of elimination in townies. blue reads isn't the only way scum can bluesnipe.
On December 09 2016 19:32 ExO_ wrote: and as another aside, killing somebody yesterday is anti-town purely from a numbers perspective. 2/3 chance of guessing wrong and instantly losing, vs waiting a day, 3/5 chance of guessing wrong. Not to mention we get an extra day of information by waiting, and potentially cop's information (though fake claims could fuck this up).
I think the people voting yesterday are highly suspect. CR/Cakepike/H1D are all at the top of my suspicions. Voting yesterday was an anti-town play almost any way you look at it, in my opinion On December 09 2016 20:00 ExO_ wrote: Why would you push so hard for a lynch on mylo, instead of waiting one more day? Its inherently anti-town, and incredibly high risk Pressure vote. + Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 01:13 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 00:32 Tumblewood wrote: if one more punk decides to vote me scum can and will hammer without warning. we are in MyLo, aka lose the game if you're wrong mode. are you really so confident in yourself because you wrote more words than me that you would risk this. for the love of god, don't be stupid You're pleading for town?cakepie to stop being stupid and worried that one fool plus two scum will make 4. I can't find that one fool, though. Now that I have your attention, try being a bit more useful and I'll reevaluate you on your contribution.
In the world where TW and I are both town, and both NU and ExO have shown strong inclination to nolynch, and I am sticking around monitoring things, what I did was safe.
As fucking sleepy as I was, I was on phone in bed between 3:45am and 5:30am, watching in case the wagon ever got to three I would immediately get up and unvote.
Fuck this.
Time for dinner and to cool off and hopefully not be so exasperated when I come back.
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Ray I need you to untunnel NU for a moment.
Your reasons for scumming him are: 1. N0 planning, feigning activity? (same as TW) 2. D1 distancing from TW (NU+TW scum) 3. wanting you to push him 4. caring about how he is perceived
I'm not saying that these aren't valid reasons. But I'm going to need you to try some good faith for a moment and consider these viewpoints:
1a. I have (weak? meta) reasons to see planning/mechanics as within the range of town?NU; #43 is a naive desire to have simple cop v mafia fakecop fights with no VTs fakeclaiming blue.
1b. #46 is a sound response to #45. With no VTs fakeclaiming blue, force scum to kill the doc N1 for a free flip without needing cop to check doc. Better plan than TW's careless crap; he's thinking as compared to TW's blindly enumerate.
2. The distancing argument relies on #87 + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 10:10 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 08:59 Tumblewood wrote: current evaluation of ray is neutral and bad, as opposed to everyone else (besides NU I guess) who are neutral and not playing Same feeling for ray, but everyone else (besides you who I've a fetus of a town-lean on) is like ray for me cause 'not playing' IS bad. Pay attention to context. "fetus of a town-lean" for activity, since no one else is present/active -- only NU, TW, CR are around, and town?NU is in OMGUS CR mode thanks to CR's "lynch NU+TW" post.
3. The problem here, Ray, is that you buggered off for good chunks of time without pushing your scumreads. He could be saying "scum!CR isn't pushing me enough for how strong his read seems to be, that's scummy!"
4. Subjective.
So take a moment and untunnel yourself, this is essential for what I'm about to draft+post up next.
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Okay. ExO is derp, but derp alone is NAI. Is ExO derptown or derpscum?
I think ExO is derpscum with TW.
I've been suspecting it since here.On December 08 2016 04:57 cakepie wrote:- H1 thanks for our brief exchange.
- C-Ray, [...] If it's not a NU+TW scumteam, then which of the two is scum? And who of the remaining players is their scumbuddy?
- NU you already have several questions from me. Remember to filter ExO for me please.
I thank H1, this was for triggering me to look at ExO. I only had time to take a quick look at his filter before going to bed, but I saw enough to want to call others' attention to it. Reminding NU to filter ExO is a hint for the attentive -- I had not asked for it before, this is a fake reminder.
I've been keeping an eye on TW+ExO interactions ever since.
My ExO case post #186 seems weak because I deliberately tried not to include any associative read stuff of TW+ExO. At the same time I pressured TW, and the idea behind it is that with a more solid scum read on TW, we can move on to discuss TW+ExO on firmer footing.
I realize association reads aren't great, but keep in mind our game format. We don't have the luxury of time and mislynches. Also, I think now that scum have had more time to slip up, we can also see a few more things that might make ExO scum, independently of the association read.
I suggest you open the thread in another window and follow along my filter reading.
Max goggles on. Here goes.
#37+#45 Talking setup / plans is suspicious but technically NAI. I grant TW defending that town?TW might be "just trying to figure the game out" But going from awareness of "mylo" to optimism for D3 is a scumslip. TW is faking contribution by blindly enumerating the day-to-day progression. He forgot about mylo -- it's not important to scumbleweed. It's very important for town. Town wouldn't forget.
#50, #51, #53, #61 + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2016 15:34 ExO_ wrote: Hi.
claiming Vanilla Town.
Going back to PoE On December 06 2016 15:52 Tumblewood wrote: ugh I hope this isn't "hi I'm VT bye" because night doesn't mean we can't play. especially when you won't get killed for your reads because N0 On December 06 2016 15:57 ExO_ wrote: And what if it is? On December 07 2016 00:09 Tumblewood wrote: it's not but for the rest of the game I would have been biased towards lynching you This is a distancing maneuver. Tinfoil: ExO isn't going to fakeclaim cop. Chalk one up for craycray's "scum isn't fakeclaiming"?
#54
On December 06 2016 15:57 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote:On December 06 2016 14:22 cakepie wrote:if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1. 45% raw odds of fulfilling prerequisites for the plan, awesome! we can confirm up to five players as town sweet, even if no redchecks, we can find all five town by D3, which PoE the other two for confscum! good job! such plan much wow any NA still ard or am I stuck waiting for EU to wake up? pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. anyway even if the odds slightly favor us I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring Cop should 100% claim tomorrow, regardless of what happens. I cite 45% raw odds for cop surviving to D1 + doc surviving to D2. ExO wants cop claim 100% on D1. No explanation, no qualification. Failure to heed my warning of poor odds.
#59
On December 06 2016 18:33 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 17:30 Koshi wrote: Oh no doc save N0. That makes more sense. I am going to do nothing and see if mafia respect kills me. If Koshi doesn't die tonight kill him tomorrow Tinfoil: Scum will respect kill Koshi, ExO throws smoke: Koshi might live.
Meanwhile TW does a different thing and takes the line that Koshi is likely to die. TW feels obliged to list other people who might die besides Koshi. He clumsily puts NU and himself in with Koshi. This leads to some scumblingtumbling #76,#77,#78.
Notice that TW and ExO are the only two players who discuss Koshi nightkill unprompted. Townies don't give a shit who's going to die. It's out of our control.
Ray is correct that scum did not expect a blueflip. This is despite 40% chance of a blueflip. People who ignored math: TW, ExO, NU.
#93
On December 07 2016 14:26 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 11:14 Chairman Ray wrote:You mentioned that you are leaning town on NeverUnlucky (specifically you said not neutral). What's your reasoning for that read? it's my way of trying to get people to be active. I reward people for trying if town is dead. Since N0 was pretty quiet, this is going to be my go-to excuse in case I get caught giving out cheap townreads.
#98
On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote: I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
Ray looks sketchy to me.
TW looks Town. Attack Ray's case. Attack Ray. buddyOMGUS Town NU for pretty weak reasons. No, TW is not buddying NU! <-- never gave a satisfactory explanation for why, despite both NU and cake asking. Towns TW without reasons. <-- when pressed by cake, #265 + Show Spoiler +I don't remember. It's what I thought skimming the thread at the time. I don't see why you are so concerned with that particular read considering all of the new information and posts we've had since then. I got a town impression of him, not based off some super analysis but based purely off how I felt at the time. bullshit response.
#105 The last time ExO played another video game instead of mafia, he was scum in Dota2 playing civ6. (joke) more seriously: start paying attention to how long he takes to get around answering questions (if even at all).
#107 is a huge scumtell.On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote:Just sat down and actually read TW's plan before, I kinda didn't pay much attention to it at first. It's actually dogshit assuming cop and doc are going to make it through to d2 with everythink hunky dory, so much to the point that I have a hard time thinking he meant it to be taken seriously. NU says (I had a hell of a time trying to copy/paste this quote so I'm just copy pasting the direct portion): "His posts don't seem like he's trying to appear good rather like he's saying what he thinks." And I think this is a hella convoluted thing to say. Saying what you think isn't necessarily a town indicator, and conversely trying to appear good isn't soley a scum indicator. I don't have a good reason for this though, but twice he's said he likes to "reward town for giving a shit". [ + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 01:24 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 00:46 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:39 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 07 2016 00:36 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 07 2016 00:28 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:26 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 07 2016 00:24 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 00:17 NeverUnlucky wrote:Yo, TW, you up for a chat with me? I've one spare hour I've got half of one but sure Noice. Do you think you're a good cop check for tonight? no because I think I'm one of the more likely players to die tonight That's the generic answer. Why do you think so? Have you ever been NKed before? Judging from HM3 idk why you would think you're in danger of being killed, lol. If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. This game is pretty slow so far. because the NK is always between me you and Koshi. the other players aren't 'respected'and aren't acting townie either Oh wow, so much honor for me. c: What do you think of other players' entries, specifically cakepie entering with math and hopeless checking in to check out? And Koshi, what happened to the "This town isn't going to be lazy" shtick you had last game? their entrances are not exciting so idc as for you, me, koshi I like to reward give-a-shitness ebwop + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 14:26 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 11:14 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 07 2016 08:55 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote: I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. worst case scenario: blue role dies ways to prevent it: doc save ask politely none glad we figured that one out and I think I did say "if things don't go according to plan we play mafia as normal" Point taken. You mentioned that you are leaning town on NeverUnlucky (specifically you said not neutral). What's your reasoning for that read? it's my way of trying to get people to be active. I reward people for trying if town is dead. the way he's speaking about "rewarding town" instead of rewarding a player is really fucking off. You reward a player with town cred, you don't "reward town" for speaking. Best lead I have so far. But I'm skeptical. What if I'm just seeing your read and starting to suspect him because of that instead of actual scum slipping. hm :/ Dismisses TW's flawed plan as not "meant to be taken seriously". ExO is only player who thinks so. Trying to reduce scrutiny.
Tries to find other things to town TW. Looks for other players towning TW. Finds NU's quote. NU explaining his TW townread to CR. But then something looks off and scum!ExO gets sidetracked trying to awkwardly read NU for that quote. <-- scumslip "hella convoluted thing"... so is that scummy or what? Doesn't commit to a read. Note also: + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote: Saying what you think isn't necessarily a town indicator, and conversely trying to appear good isn't soley a scum indicator
Goes back to TW. Oh shit cakepieCalix is a strong player and I need to come across as being on the same page as himher. Let me distance myself from my scumbuddy and dig some dirt on him.
Fails at digging up dirt.
"Yeah my best scumread so far is the same as yours. But I'm skeptical TW is scum. Why are you making me scumread him?"
Doesn't take responsibility for his read. Couches it in wording so that he can go back to towning TW.
Excuse given later: "I was worried that my impression of yourCalix's gameplay in touhou mafia was affecting my ability to assess if TW was scummy on my own." <- meh.
#109/#110 is fixing his scumslip, then fixing his completely fucked up fake scumread on TW.
#112 "Town is in a bad spot. Cop should claim."
cakepie gets back from dinner. The post resonated with super-pessimistic cakepie on a gut level, particularly the appeal on the basis that we need time to discuss counterclaims. but cakepie sees the nolynch.
ExO didn't see the nolynch. scum!ExO tried expound a townie reason to followup his earlier "cop 100% claim" but scumslipped.
#128 "Oh, we can no-lynch? Cool then, nvm."
The power to vote is sacred for town. ExO didn't know we could no-lynch because he's scum and didn't care unless scum was the wagon du jour and needed to defend.
#129 Doesn't actually answer #102, just continues to attack Ray's case, now attacking Ray's #106. He's attacking #106 as a feint rather than responding to #102 which asks about things he said in #98, which are in turn about Ray's first post D1. This struck me really odd at the time because #106 > #102. Also, he didn't actually answer my questions.
And + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote: "Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post.
buddy OMGUS.
#131
On December 08 2016 08:05 ExO_ wrote: Anywho if we can no lynch though that changes everything. There'd be no pressure for scum to fake claim. Should absolutely no lynch, and have cop reveal at the very end of tomorrow night. ???? Wrong logic. His earlier argument was: if a scum under threat of lynch fakeclaims cop, we need time for cop counterclaim and discussion. Now: oh, we can no lynch. fine then. How does the option of no-lynch mean that we won't try to lynch scum? Seems a bit too confident of a nolynch. This might be scum!ExO going, "phew, now we just need to lobby for maximum caution and play for nolynch." Possibly even "thank goodness we'll probably not be pushed so hard, cuz defending is a bitch"
#135
On December 08 2016 10:49 Tumblewood wrote: ok so I made a plan and I didn't think it through all the way. how can you, from that information, conclude that I was mafia trying to mislead you (and it's not like I was trying to steer you away from any plan — there was no plan at the time) and not town just trying to figure the game out? I don't even see the motive besides making myself look better. TW: "If I put on town glasses and try to scumread myself for the plan, the worst thing is I'm trying to make myself look better." Notice how both TW and previously ExO play down "trying to appear good" as a scum indicator.
#140
On December 08 2016 11:11 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 16:37 ExO_ wrote: Actually I just realized I misread TWs posts he never says rewarding town. I'm starting to think I'm going a bit crazy this post (+ sequence before it) feels very candid. it is hard as scum to fake viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint to reflect that. also it would be a lot of attention to detail to fake a mistake and react realistically. TW townreads ExO for his fuck up and recovery. Pre-emptively trying to spin it into a town tell. However, he does it wrongly. Please look at my discussion on why TW's townread is done wrongly.
#145 TW points out null shit. Faking scumhunting.
#153
On December 08 2016 15:27 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 15:24 Tumblewood wrote:gotta check cakepie's meta to see if being an asshat is his normal meta + Show Spoiler +inb4 this is also a subversive, manipulative trick designed intentionally to buddy NU and mislead town I don't know if you think you're spotting my mafia tricks or some shit but actually you're finding evidence where there is none. literally things that could go either way and you are construing them toward I am scum without hesitation I don't think cakepie is being an asshat. and I find the tone of your posts here to be odd. Saying they could go either way, instead of saying I'm town and you're clearly wrong I think says a lot about the position you are speaking from. Why doesn't ExO just call TW scummy? He's leaving the door open for badtown?TW to make omgus play. Scum plan: TW is going to go into tryhard mode, and they're playing for the nolynch, which is a safer play for scum than having to fakeclaim cop.
#151~#153 could be scripted. ExO doesn't respond this quickly to anyone else.
#159 Shit I thought I was safe and was firmly tunneltown. WTF better find out why.
#161
On December 08 2016 19:32 ExO_ wrote: I largely agree with your reasoning on TW. But a no lynch is our safest play. I don't like the idea of the game being over if we're wrong, when we can wait for a day, get more information, and hopefully cop stays alive and really makes it easier.
It's a gamble. If we lynch scum today we effectively buy an extra day. But if we guess wrong we lose. I'm not sure im comfortable lynching today, despite how bad TW looks as a whole "Calix made a solid case. Damn. Better sheep it while lobbying for nolynch." "largely agree" without any elaboration on what parts of the case he agreed/disagreed with.
Excuse given when prodded later: I didn't have any major points I disagreed with. Mainly, my impression of TW was scummy and I wanted to say I agreed that he was scummy. I wasn't putting much effort in the game because I was tired after getting home from work.
ExO fucks off for the rest of D1. TW goes into "I'm a bad townie with massive omgusitis" mode.
Breaking here so I can post up and people (if you're here, give a shout) can start reading while I continue on the remainder.
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Continuing on. I'm going to start from the point where scumbleweed starts his "townie with omgusitis" act.
#164
On December 09 2016 00:32 Tumblewood wrote: I have explained my ExO townread and it's a fucking good reason that you all should sleep me for. This is before where I point out why his townread logic is incorrect.
On December 09 2016 00:32 Tumblewood wrote: if one more punk decides to vote me scum can and will hammer without warning. we are in MyLo, aka lose the game if you're wrong mode. are you really so confident in yourself because you wrote more words than me that you would risk this. for the love of god, don't be stupid Tumblewood's strategy is to try to fake the classic cornered omgus townie. But in #167 I point out he's not quite reacting correctly. To elaborate:
"if one more punk": town!cake + town!onepunk + 2 scum.
He towns ExO and NU, both of which have already shown hesitation and said they won't vote.
Sidetracking for a bit: - #161 ExO preaches caution and hardsells nolynch. - #163 NU offered reads and is not confident enough to vote because he has too many scumreads and hasn't been able to narrow down. Pay attention to the difference here.
Anyway, NU is declared away (school), ExO also left although it wasn't declared to us. TW obviously won't vote himself. So there is no quorum.
#170 Sheeping NU, OMGUS onto Ray.
#174
On December 09 2016 01:39 Tumblewood wrote: and for the record I have not been useless this game. Nope.
I have figured out (probably) both the scum out of three people, By OMGUS and hardly any solidly reasoned case
defended myself against accusations, Poorly. Also, this is NAI, both alignments will defend themselves
and been the source of hmalf the game's posts. but hardly close to half the content
really not sure how town could do any more on a day one where we aren't lynching. confident that no lynch will happen, yet overreacting in #164 (discussed above) <-- this is a disconnect.
#175
On December 09 2016 01:40 Tumblewood wrote: how do I convince people I'm right in a town where no one plays like me or has played with me (except NU, once) Pseudo-noobiecard
#185On December 09 2016 02:45 Tumblewood wrote: hm I'm trying to get out of the town tunnel mindset on NU so I'm trying to make a scum case on him but I actually have no dirt. is anyone scumreading him? I want some perspective here. #196On December 09 2016 03:55 Tumblewood wrote: yeah looking at the scum filter + having heard his history on that other site, there's no way NU is this convincing as scum Useless and fake. I'll sheep Ray here:+ Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 05:43 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 05:26 Tumblewood wrote:On December 09 2016 04:50 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote:ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler +turns out no one likes being lynched and because the line between "a regular amount" and "too much" is incredibly subjective You argue that being worried about perception can be either town or mafia, and it's incredibly subjective, that I agree with, which is why I pushed on him. However, you came to NU's defense before letting him speak for himself, which is a direct contradiction with your argument. Just a few posts ago you were asking for other people's scumreads on NU so you can gain some perspective. You don't actually seem that interested after all. I did want someone to help play devil's advocate and then saw yet another example of the trend where every single game he's scum he dies D1 because he's painfully obvious. and there is no contradiction in my argument. I wasn't defending him so much as calling out your shitty argument.. I don't buy this at all. You argued how NU acted could be either town or mafia, and it's subjective. But the way you are acting now, and have been throughout the game, you already have your mind made up that he's town.
#204
On December 09 2016 04:24 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote:On December 09 2016 02:48 cakepie wrote: he "largely agrees" with my TW case [...] There's zero progression / information for how he got there. Hm, maybe not completely zero, but there is this bit: On December 08 2016 15:27 ExO_ wrote: I don't think cakepie is being an asshat. and I find the tone of your posts here to be odd. Saying they could go either way, instead of saying I'm town and you're clearly wrong I think says a lot about the position you are speaking from. But still there is very little: #98 TW looks Town. <-- no elaboration! #107 "Why are you making me scumread TW?" <-- couched read?! #153 cakepie isn't an asshat and TW's tone is off #161 "largely agrees" with my TW case <-- no elaboration! I can get behind him not elaborating but there's definitely a progression there — I don't know what else you'd call what you outlined. his change of opinion gives me no trouble.
Buddy defense. TW sees ExO going from town -> hesistant scum read -> ?scummy? -> yes, scum! progression. Later on ExO contradicts:On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote: I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game If ExO had been swinging TW to and from between town and scum, it is definitely not reflected in the progression.
#206 This might look like he's defending NU, but he's also defending himself by proxy because Ray's distancing read is a NU+TW associative scumread. Will conveniently also help in his quest to pocket NU.
#210 "mistakes are often innocent and seldom scumtells" No, mistakes need to be evaluated.
NIGHTPOST
#240Continues to townread NU (pocket) and ExO (scumbuddy)
Time for scumbleweed to post cases and establish towncred!
On December 09 2016 09:22 Tumblewood wrote: I plan on writing posts like this for each player still alive besides myself, going in order the filters are listed. This isn't necessarily an indictment but an analysis of each player and a reasoned guess to their alignment, trying to start from square one and not cloud my judgement with previous bias. I will not go through every post, but I will use quotes liberally. I will not omgus. I will not omgus. I will not omgus. I will not...
On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote: I fear that already my mindset of avoiding bias is slipping. Oh no, my omgusitis!
On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote: although he stops short of accepting things as mistakes. Again playing down mistakes rather than seeing that we should evaluate if they are scumslips.
obviously the mistake wasn't even intentional? Cakepie overall spends several posts selling my mistakes,, contained in obviously low-effort posts (as in, spending little time typing them, not thinking about them) as intentional. Keen to assume mistakes as intentional is always scummy; town isn't looking to paint others as scum without being totally convinced themselves... and also having decent reasons. And again with the mistakes.
Funny how I'm the one guy on the wrong side of the world who gets to take my time reading, thinking, and drafting... and he calls it low-effort? WTF? This contradicts himself only a few lines ago + Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote: I have to give him some credit, at least, for working his ass off for town. He's put an unlikely amount of effort into this game for someone just faking it.
Accuses me of not having reasons. Hah.
Chairman Ray posts with similarly poor logic, and cakepie responds [...] in the normal manner of explaining why it's wrong. He makes no attempt to show why Ray is scum, even though his mistake was no less 'egregious' than mine. Somehow TW equates his and ExO's "mistakes" on the same level as Ray's "poor logic". Fails to see the difference between hunting for scumslips vs correcting bad reasoning.
Although he accuses me of trying to mislead NU rather than himself, cakepie plays to NU even more [...] by rhetorically asking if I was buddying NU all along. Consider also that he had expressed skepticism when Ray proposed that we were buddying. completely fails at reading. I argued that TW tried to pocket NU but not the other way around.
In his case against me, scumbleweed is faking effort with fake cases using completely shit reasoning.
On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote: Scum. Yeah, I don't like to speak in absolutes, but I fail to find any explanation for how cakepie is town. He reacts in different ways to the same tells from different players and above all speaks to why I am scum with evidence that should lead no reasonable person to his conclusions. Trying to find the townie in him, I felt like I was grasping for anything to explain it. If not scum then cakepie is one of the most misled townies I have ever seen, even ahead of Rels that one time. "I really don't want to omgus but I have to omgus. town?cakepie shitty shitty town!" Only one other player agrees I might be shitty town.
On December 09 2016 10:59 Tumblewood wrote: This is all I will be able to manage tonight without killing myself. I should have gotten to Ray before, mostly to sort out my own thoughts on him. I'll just cop out of this altogher and avoid having to OMGUS on Ray.
The case on ExO_ [...] The case for [...] mistakes [...] Ah, there it is again!
*bias creeping in help* Oh shit, I'm townreading him for defending me! Oh no, my reverse-omgusitis!
Town. ExO has provided good analysis consistently and has hardly done anything to give me suspicion. One thing to watch out for, though, is a dropoff after D1 if it seems like he can coast through the game. Towning his scumbuddy. Good analysis, hahahaha! Only when fending off Ray's TW+NU case! "watch out for ... dropoff after D1" pointless point. D2 lylo, anyone seeming inactive is going to get shit.
Why does TW make such a big deal of playing up the OMGUS? To the point that he's giving cheesy commentary when he does it? It's very contrived.
Compare: 2015 shitty VT cakepie on track for D1 mislynch + Show Spoiler +On April 21 2015 04:31 cakepie wrote: Why not go scrutinize people who seem perfectly happy to stay inactive? Not to OMGUS, but it's starting to get kind of fishy how the case on me is almost lazy easy policy tunnel. On April 21 2015 09:59 cakepie wrote: OWS didn't seem terribly invested in the game early on, and he certainly tunnelled me hard. Not without cause, but certainly could have done more to pressure elsewhere. I've been trying really hard to resist OMGUS onto OWS
Basically, scumplan is to make a big show of omgustown!TW. And this is where TW leaves the thread and ExO enters...
#251 This is ExO posting in (fake?) stream-of-consciousness because in #186 I posit that it's one way I can see some of his behavior as town. Stream of consciousness posting can be used in "quick catch up" mode after being away, like in this case. But it comes across as most authentic when it's someone who is engaged in current discussion and posting responses with low latency.
Just a gut feel. But I do think it'd be hilarious if it turns does out that scum!ExO was forced to act this way in response to my case.
On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #164 TW hard town reading me --> Scum trying to buddy me because I'm town. Other players I think are town think I might be scum because I wanted cop to reveal (because I thought we had to lynch today). However they think I might be scum faking it. TW isn't even considering this possibilty. #164 Distancing.
#170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk defending buddy
#173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here. low hanging fruit
#180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives fluffy null
#182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain uh, reasoning? Three players see it as buddying, so you might want to explain?
#185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. "too scummy to be scum" card.
When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum. was never apparent until now. There was very little visible progression of ExO reading TW previously.
#186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me. Because scum!Exo can't tell the difference.
#203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU buddyomgus
#205 CakepieCalix should go read my dota mafia posts, and should look at the last game we played. When I'm town I usually just post whatever comes to mind. I don't sit and craft careful posts. When I'm scum I'm much more careful about what I post. You getting my stream of consciousness and seeing me move around on my reads is because I'm trying to sift through the information and am doubting myself as I go. Do you honestly think I'm faking this as scum? I have trouble believing that you do NSM24 (touhou2) was ExO not even understanding why he got mislynched D1. Dota2 ExO played civ6. =Þ
#215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him inability to see town motivation because ExO is scum.
#217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum. planted mistake
#228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum. defend the omgustown!scumbuddy! omgus all the voters! fail to see town motivations of voters.
#231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted? See how he doesn't just go back and edit the part about #217? 217 is a planted mistake and this post is a fake stream of consciousness.
Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum. yeah, look at that fucking effort! TW totes town!
CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum. OMGUS for good measure.
#256 #257
TW attacks into cake and H1 ExO attacks into Ray and FoS NU for good measure, since TW pocket NU.
On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote: I don't think I can agree TW is mafia. I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game Where is the back and forth? Not evident in thread. No progression.
#259 Being scum, ExO is completely incapable of finding town motivations for the voters.
#262Yup, ExO's assigned to Ray and NU.
#264
On December 09 2016 19:52 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. I'm witholding information that is useful to scum. I'm asking you for information that is not useful to scum. Difference! Let's say I accept you've been operating on stream-of-consciousness mode. Fine. The problem I'm having with that is that while you go down the list of posts and toss out whatever comes to mind, you're not stopping to elaborate, and you've also missed questions that were embedded in posts. I don't know if you missed them if you're just focused on posting your brief impressions, or if you're deliberately dodging or ignoring. That's what rubs me the wrong way.
Or maybe there is actually stream of consciousness in some places, but scum!ExO subconsciously skips the questions that are difficult for scum and plucks only at the low hanging fruit.
#265
On December 09 2016 20:00 ExO_ wrote: #98: I don't remember. It's what I thought skimming the thread at the time. I don't see why you are so concerned with that particular read considering all of the new information and posts we've had since then. I got a town impression of him, not based off some super analysis but based purely off how I felt at the time. This answer would be much better without the "I don't remember." part.
#107 You are misconstruing what happened here. If I recall correctly in touhou mafia (assuming I haven't confused you with someone else) I thought you played well and your opening here reminded me of it. So when you started posting a scum case on TW, I looked at it and started to think that yeah TW looks scummy. But I was worried that my impression of your gameplay in touhou mafia was affecting my ability to assess if TW was scummy on my own. Thanks Calix!
#161 I didn't have any major points I disagreed with. Mainly, my impression of TW was scummy and I wanted to say I agreed that he was scummy. I wasn't putting much effort in the game because I was tired after getting home from work. admits lazy sheep. also, that lazy sheep where he "largely agreed" with my case, but now no major points disagreed with. Hmm. How about minor points? I guess not.
Why would you push so hard for a lynch on mylo, instead of waiting one more day? Its inherently anti-town, and incredibly high risk Scum!ExO fails to process cakepie's intent yet again!
Why would the reasons I disagreed with your case on TW be super important? I find it odd that you'd care more about the reasons for disagreeing with you than the reasons why I would think TW is scum. Fails to understand that I take issue with the lazy sheep and lack of progression. Fails to understand that I'm looking at why he quickly goes to no-lynch mode. Recall my comparison of his nolynch vs NU's nolynch.
#266Pls TW is such effort!omgus!cornered!town!
#268
On December 09 2016 20:06 ExO_ wrote: What information could you be withholding that is useful to scum? What kind of information could that possibly be? Everything I can think of would be better discussed in town, except if you are the cop. And this should be obvious but the only reason cops information shouldn't be public yet is because we want to get another night of information in before we have to lynch. Scum!ExO wouldn't understand.
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Summary
- TW and ExO have both been pretty useless.
- TW I've cased twice yesterday and brought his filter up to date on the latest.
- ExO isn't forthcoming with his thought process. Dodges questions. Lacks solid reads all of D1. Hesitates to take a position and be responsible for it. Lazy sheep. No progression. Repeatedly unable to see things from a town perspective.
- TW and ExO both repeatedly discount mistakes as townie or NAI rather than willing to look for scumslips in them.
- TW and ExO did not scumhunt D1. Attacking Ray and his case doesn't count for much -- it was 1. away!CR is low hanging fruit 2. defending TW 3. pocketing NU
- TW and ExO pushed nolynch superaggressively for "caution" whereas town was open to lynching if we could narrow down the candidates.
- Early N1 TW+ExO is orchestrated. Contrived and fake. Rife with OMGUS and contradictions.
---
On the other hand,
NU is town for freely discussing thoughts with me, re: my cases on TW and ExO, re: h1.
Ray is town for scumhunting from the get-go. He was absent and not engaging for a good chunk of D1 but toward EoD1 and early N1 did a lot to rectify that.
H1 is leantown for readily sharing new ideas with me that were on point and directly addressing gaps in my understanding.
Lynch TW and ExO. Lynch them superduperhard.
I'm a cop you idiot mafia. Doctor nightkilled N0. Solved on N1 without needing to rely on cop claims or checks.
+ Show Spoiler +in before I'm wrong, town loses and I get blamed
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Oh and I forgot this:
#262 On December 09 2016 19:44 ExO_ wrote: So let me ask you CR, assume for a second that TW is town, and NU is scum. Who would the 2nd scum be with NU? CR's NU read relies on association in TW+NU scum team. Asking him to town TW and find 2nd scum with NU is just silly.
Possible poor imitation of me asking CR to town NU and find TW's scumbuddy in #127.
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On December 10 2016 03:31 NeverUnlucky wrote:Sorry for going MIA for 24h, I was cuahgt up in my finals yesterday. I should be much more active during the weekend For now, I've an essay to write that is due in 4 hours (same time as EoN), so if I can't make an appearance before EoN, this is my order of lynching in case I get killed: Ray TW ExO H1 cakepie No. Stop. Don't OMGUS Ray. If you've been away due to finals, I don't think you've had a chance to properly catch up since your last post here. Make sure you properly look at Ray's EoD1 and N1.
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@H1 -- What was that vote? See what Ray said about it in response to my question. Read Ray's post and think very very carefully. If I am alive tomorrow I'll be able to help you understand it, otherwise please give Ray a fair chance to explain to you.
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@cakepie -- What is your stance on Chairman Ray now? I have not seen your read of him evolve since the beginning of day 1. My read did evolve, you missed it.
I townleaned him early D1 because he was scumhunting in his own way. We discussed this at some point. re: "in his own way" = the logic that CR used in his D1 entry post that looks off to you (and TW+ExO) -- because you're recent to the site. I'm not going to claim I'm an old hand, or that I have good meta on CR. But when I was new here, CR hadn't gone off on hiatus yet (I even cohosted a game he played). And I can see his logic as hailing from that era.
My read did evolve in that before he reappeared EoD1, I responded to TW:
On December 09 2016 02:05 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 01:40 Tumblewood wrote: how do I convince people I'm right in a town where no one plays like me or has played with me (except NU, once) You don't "convince people [you're] right". Town finds each other by finding things they agree on because they see something the same way, because they're coming from the same perspective. It's called consensus. For example, I don't fully agree on your ExO TR but I can agree with you that as we approach EoD1 Ray is starting to look strange and entering scum territory for being very one-track-minded on scumming two players together all of D1. (I forgot to include to qualify my statement with: CR being away, not following up and pushing his reads) Sorry for that omission. Honest mistake! *trollface*
But Ray is pretty solid town for me now.
Ray did tunnel TW+NU scumteam and was away. - But hey I tunneled too. There's a philosophy: find one scum. push as far as it'll go. - Can't really strongly scumread for "being away" if subsequent activity fixes that.
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sorry, misclick "post" accidentally instead of "preview". disregard.
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Sorry town, I'm the cop and I'm going to die.
Sorry for being an idiotcop it is my first time as cop. I didn't want to lazycop because of the particular game format and I thought maybe scum wouldn't blue hunt among the superduper active townies.
The good news is I think the game is solved even without cop powers? Like even if you tear down the weak parts of my cases there should be a fair bit left for you to proceed. So use my fuckinghugepost well.
On December 08 2016 20:39 cakepie wrote: Not explaining it now has a town motivation of denying information to scum. I don't see a need to explain everything now and give scum time to ponder over it. Town doesn't need my full explanation today (game D1, not real time), but will have it by tomorrow (that is to say, D2.) when it matters. ExO's post initially resonated strongly with me, so I gut reacted with town tunnel.
Being on the wrong side of the planet from all of you made it important to me to have time to be able to counterclaim, since I worry I may not be online at the same time as you all.
Furthermore, I was very worried about 25% bluesnipe odds.
In fact, due to: - town?ExO VT claiming from the start - ExO demands 100% cop claim in N0, ExO doesn't claim cop on D1 - ExO demands cop claim ASAP in #112, ExO doesn't claim cop I was concerned that ExO had stupid!town helped scum to 33% bluesnipe odds by eliminating himself as cop.
On December 07 2016 21:31 cakepie wrote: I also believe I might have an inkling of what you typed out and deleted. Maybe we're thinking the same thing that we don't want to speak about yet. I was worried that scumbleweed would fakeclaim cop -- bad!cop would supply additional excuses for the N0 planning.
But it's okay now since it's obvious that scum!ExO - just wanted to bait a cop claim, and - wasn't able to see how his own (increasinly solid) VT claim harms town. - didn't understand why I withheld information for town motivations (Sorry I actually went and explained it to him in my anger and incredulity.)
+ Show Spoiler +
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I'm going to cash in all the towncred I've banked and issue these orders.
No one votes without thorough discussion and town consensus. ExO and Ray need to get their asses in here. Don't be lazy. Read my case.
I'm working out the possibilities but I need everyone to be present.
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That's way too many of us. I'm not sure there's enough room in the police car.
ExO, just to be sure, you're not some kind of super secret deep undercover cop, are you? Like, your VT claim is for realsies and you're not a cop who fakeclaimed VT?
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NU you're painfully obviously not cop. Even without your awful rolecrumb.
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I claimed at EoN. TW, why you no claim at EoN? Ray, why you no claim at EoN?
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NU, unvote. That's an order.
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We're going to wait for ExO and see if he wants to get coffee and donuts with us.
ExO get yo ass in here.
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On December 10 2016 10:10 NeverUnlucky wrote: And why would you be looking at crumbs? I saw something strange and looked into it and thought you might have crumbed VT. If you didn't crumb, then I'm mistaken for misinterpreting that something might be a crumb.
I can see you might be worried that I'm scum hunting for blue crumbs. Let me assure you that I was looking for VT crumbs. Here's why:
On December 10 2016 06:59 cakepie wrote: Furthermore, I was very worried about 25% bluesnipe odds. [...] I was concerned that ExO had stupid!town helped scum to 33% bluesnipe odds by eliminating himself as cop. I was worried about VTs claiming VT too solidly and helping scum by taking themselves out of running as possible cop.
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NU, have you read my hugefuckingcase? Don't be lazy. Read it. We're going to need to solve this game with very little help of cop powers.
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On December 10 2016 09:59 cakepie wrote: TW, why you no claim at EoN?
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On December 10 2016 10:37 NeverUnlucky wrote: All your cases are huge. Which one is it specifically? If it's the one on TW, I only skimmed it and read the conclusion #274 ~ #278 take your time.
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On December 10 2016 10:07 Tumblewood wrote:I guess by principle he should but I'm not really worried if someone does hammer Because that means you'd win. Either as townwinner or as scumwinner.
You're only interested in using your claim and checks to solve the game by yourself. That's very selfish.
It's lylo. You have to convince town of your claim. You have to dispel all counterclaims. You shouldn't just dump it and expect everyone to take it at face value. You have to show why your checks, PLUS the available evidence in the game thread, all ties together in a coherent narrative that solves the game.
Unfortunately, craycray and I don't have reads that in themselves solve the game. As I already said, we have to solve this game with very little help of cop powers. Assuming all cop claims being equal and nothing else, we need to be given a fair chance to put together our respective narratives.
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NU
On December 10 2016 11:32 NeverUnlucky wrote: And tbh this case revolves all around logic and contradictions, and I don't think that's the right way to find scum though that's personal. I know. But if you're really town -- and I really hope you are -- then please do try to follow as best as you can, because this is going to be difficult. If you're town, then -- no offense -- you've been selected as the weakest link by scum. So this game rests on your shoulders. If you're scum, you're putting up a hell of a good act. No offense again -- but I don't think you're capable of this act without helluva good scumbuddy coaching you. So, I think you're probably town.
I already squandered my towncred by being too cocky -- and that was stupid of me. I just hope I have enough left that I can bring together the town circle and win us the game.
Stepping up and being town leader wasn't my intention coming into the game. But I see busy people, away people and lazy people, so it fell upon me to put in the work for town. Being town leader is a new and strange thing for me. I'm not even that good of a player. But I've been trying my darndest.
huge fucking case is huge because I wanted to be thorough. I know being verbose is a problem of mine so I try to cut down on my commentary length -- and voila I get called out for "quoted every post in the game and added some analysis". What TW has done is to wholesale dismiss everything I've done before even giving it a fair shake.
I see you giving it a fair shake, NU. Thank you for that. I know the case is not going to be perfect. I know it's going to have flaws. I'm okay with that. Remember: cases can be a basis for discussion. If we force discussion, we get more information about where people stand on matters, and we get more opportunities to read them for what they say and what positions they take. That's a positive for us.
Please continue to weigh the case. Toss out the weak shit. See if what remains is good enough. I'll help.
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People who care enough to think over the possibilities: NU, CR. People who don't seem to care about considering the possibilities: ExO, TW.
I'm VT who fakeclaimed cop. There are no checks because I'm not a cop. You won't find those checks. But I'm not a crook either.
I wanted to try to shield the real cop from NK and die in his place. If I succeed, and flip VT rather than cop, then my flip and my towncred would ensure my reads get considered. Plus there would be (hopefully useful) cop checks. I tried to make a big play because I got too cocky and fucked up because I was sleep deprived, staying up all night until dawn, and all pumped up because I thought I solved the game. It would have been epic to solve and win the game. Now if we lose I'm totally worst misplay 2016. =( I was worried my case might be wrong and we lose for it. Now it's my case is right but we're going to lose because I'm going to have trouble making my case stick.
On top of this misplay, I was also too cocky and talked to NU about crumbs and now that's going to stick as a SR.
I'm going to run out of towncred, this is going to be hard. But I'll try. Because if I've done nothing else this whole game, it's trying hard.
In b4 all the things I said get thrown out, baby with the bathwater, etc etc. Just because I operate differently and some people have a hard time following. And the lazy thing is to say "I'm right, this guy seems nuts/scum. block out noise."
Hear me out please.
In view of my scumread on TW all this time, TW's crumbs are prefabricated. In my huge case, you'll see that I believe EoD1 scum played for nolynch, and then N1 was orchestrated. The crumbs are part of the orchestrated move.
scum?TW's fabricated crumbs tell me that: - scum already decided early in N1 or even earlier to kill H1, and safely crumbs H1 N0 town in one bullet point. - This means the decision was made even before my fakeclaim. =( - But H1 succeeded in dying so that the real cop may live. =) - scum leaves flexibility to either pick one bullet point and "N1 check (cakepie)", or to spill to the next bullet point and "N1 check Chairman Ray" - scumbleweed's partner is ExO or NU.
Of couse I pick TW+ExO as that is the case I've decided to pursue. In that case TW+ExO rely on NU to vote with them -- because they think they can use the fact that they all don't always understand my methods to discredit me. I do think NU is town but I will give TW+NU a good shakedown.
Alternatively, cop?TW means scum?Ray. But I'm town. So it'd have to be Ray+NU or Ray+ExO.
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On December 10 2016 14:50 cakepie wrote: If NU is town, then -- no offense -- you've been selected as the weakest link by scum. So this game rests on your shoulders. scum!(tw+exo) see NU as the one the can get to vote with them. But I'm the fucking weakest link now with unforced error.
I'm not actually a super strong player or anything like that. At least, I don't think so given my track record:- NMM33: used logic. Logic was mostly sound but being VT and lacking role information, I input one incorrect premise into my logic, based on a tunneled read. I try to make a big play and go shenannies with it. Fortunately, scum had not run the logic themselves, so they committed a forced error. And the player with the actual role had also looked into the logic and caught on so he was ready to save the game from my mistake. We won the game but no thanks to me.
- NMM36: replaced in, obvious TvT situation. Was too late and barely wasn't able to save the doc who got mislynched D2. Got the town together. I spent a lot of time D3 trying to get the townies who were going to be left alive D4 to townread each other, but they had built up so much animosity from TvT and were so exhausted that it was a difficult and ultimately futile exercise. Fortunately, scum had been coasting off of TvT, and didn't keep up with town after EoD2 so we won handily with scum lynch+modkill on D3. I was criticized for overcomplicating things on D3 (doing things with D4 motivations) and told to "find scum, lynch scum, be happy".
- Aperture 2 Ep 2: large themed game with role madness. I felt completely lost and useless. Was among the weak players that were killed off closed to the end. We lost.
- NSM8: Didn't have enough time, played like utter shit. Got pushed by both scum and town and got mislynched D1 as VT. We lost.
NSM8 taught me to make sure I have fuckloads of time (I am a very slow plaer) and to put in tons of effort. Those lessons are freshest in my mind since it's most recent, and I lost in a really shitty way. So I applied them in this game.
Stepping up and being town leader wasn't my intention coming into the game. But I saw busy people, away people and lazy people, so it fell upon me to put in the work for town. Being town leader was a new and strange thing for me. I'm not even that good, but I've tried my darndest and succeeded in establishing myself town.
I also tried to "find scum, lynch scum, be happy". I picked the scummiest target, pushed the read as far as I could. Then, the next target, and take it as far as I can again. This was okay and I knew there would be weak parts of the reads. But it is informative to see how people react. It is also informative to provide material for discussion -- which is why I was somewhat dismayed by the lack of discussion. On the other hand, this approach led several of you to think that I'm trying too hard to find scumtells.
Things were pretty good though, until I forgot the lessons from long ago ( NMM33 and NMM36 ) and decided to do unnecessary shit and make a big play. Now we're fucked unless someone -- most likely NU -- is willing to hear me out on good faith.
So I'm going to submit that it's within my meta for me to fuck up like that. The way I use logic too, even if that seems alien to you.
I really hope that people are bothered enough to actually put in effort to go look at my meta. Sorry to increase the burden on you.
If you can't be bothered or don't believe me, then I will shamefully accept responsibility for losing the game.
You're not going to get seals from me, though. I'm town.
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On December 10 2016 15:30 Tumblewood wrote:why not bait it by posting 3 minutes early? I did fake #280+281.
or why would you associate yourself with ray (it really is obvious) all game if you have no special relation to him?
If you mean me calling him craycray, no particular reason. I just thought it would be a funny nickname. If it's me seeming to let him off the hook, that's because I was focusing on you, then ExO. If you have something you want to ask me about our interactions content-wise, fire away.
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On December 10 2016 16:04 Tumblewood wrote: and with ray, it's that you never seem to pressure him, you just always see the good side, which isn't how you have treated TW+ExO I did concede to you toward EoD1 that he was falling into scum territory. Also, I don't think I ever pressured NU and H1 very much either?
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On December 10 2016 15:36 Tumblewood wrote:
I'm not lynching you today, not with an absolute certainty on the board. but consider that, if you're town, then exo has to be scum and must be playing a pretty damn good game.
Huh, you might actually care. You could lynch Ray today, and die tonight, and leave us to our devices. But you care (or are pretending to.)
If cop!TW and town!cakepie, it's either ExO or NU with Ray. Don't discount NU with Ray. It's plausible that the following:
- You were selected as D1 target based on N0, and Ray vs NU was a distancing move where Ray has to lynch you to flip you scum and scum NU by association. But we could copcheck you as town and Ray would safely disengage NU. Or we mislynch you and they win. In that sense, Ray v NU isn't even a bus.
- EoD1 may have had NU waiting to hammer you if ExO or H1 voted.
- your crumbs were found, and scum actually opted not to kill cop!TW because: - they get to kill conftown in H1 - you were scumread D1 by H1, me, and ?ExO? - with me going after TW+ExO, I'm the weakest link who will mislynch you
- in any event, NU is sent into thread to vote you and get stupidcake to vote you and then Ray hammers
- scum puzzles over my claim for a bit and then figures out I fucked up. Ray formulates his copclaim.
- NU voting ray is ballsy, but they know I will tell NU to unvote.
- This requires NU to be playing very well, but this is the scenario where he has Ray as a very experienced scumbuddy who can guide him.
So you need to consider both ExO and NU.
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I dozed off while pondering scum!(CR+ExO) for TW. My head is clearer now that I can stop feeling so sorry for myself. Still very sleep deprived but determined to do what I can.
TW is in a comfortable spot because both cop!TW and scum!TW has the same optimal play today: lynch Ray.
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For scum!TW, this was the plan all along and it just got ridiculously easier because cakepie is an idiot.
It was originally going to be a bit of an effort at least -- TW+ExO in concert, Act 3: working on NU while fighting against town!cake who will have to untunnel NU from scumming Ray. [Act 1: nolynch. Act 2: N1 setting up for D2]
I regret that I only had time during N1 to get CR to untunnel NU. I had just about enough time to squeeze in a post urging NU to pleasepleaseplease reconsider CR. I need a NU who is willing to let me walk him through the hinking processes of an older cohort of players, and untunnel him off CR.
Scum!TW is good. I misunderestimated the team because scum!ExO kept being so derp.
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For cop!TW, he obviously lynches Ray, but should be interested in helping the last three players {NU ExO cake} figure out the game.
So, he's definitely reaching out. But is he really sincerely reaching out to everyone?
I don't feel like he's being sincere with me. Based on the checks he has, he doesn't seem to be giving me a fair chance to work through cop!TW + idiotVTcake scenarios with me.
I put together a scenario for scum?(CR+NU) but he quickly dismisses it, this forces me to move on to CR+ExO -- which I was going to do next anyway. But I ran into even greater difficulty on that scenario.
Dozed off while trying to wrap my head around it. Here's what I had drafted: + Show Spoiler +Discarding the association based parts of ExO w/ TW scumteam, there are still the things that make ExO standalone scum, such as, quickly off the top of my head - #107 ExO's very forced scumread on TW that had to be binned - #112 Baiting cop claim - Very hard to pin ExO's position all of D1, or to answer questions (esp re: TW) - Lack of content in filter that reflects what he says his read progression is (swinging wildly on TW)
But trying to make a scum!(CR+ExO) for TW is a very awkward exercise. - ExO is prepositioned N0 to go into D1 arguing for 100% cop claim - CR does his own thing with TW+NU - #96~#100 really don't make sense through (CR+ExO) goggles. - ExO knows TW is town but tries to make a forced case and blame cakecalix - #112 baiting cop ... ... and I halt, because I start to see that it's going to be a lot of ExO being scum by himself, and very little ExO being scum with CR.
Cop!TW happily pushes me from a rock to a harder place and gives idiotVT!cake nowhere to go. Just because NU can't be scum (reason: else he'd be dead D1), and ExO not scum (reason: derping would be a brilliant act from scumExO).
so cakepie must be scum for fakeclaiming, or it is the superunlikely event that cake is a bloodyidiot.[spoiler]On December 10 2016 09:49 Tumblewood wrote: well my read on cakepie is 100% (okay, 99% in case he's really, really bad and/or trying to lose the game) because of the fakeclaim, but before he claimed it was more like a 90%.
On December 10 2016 15:30 Tumblewood wrote: back at 90% on cakepie. this has potential to be, instead of mafia, the worst townie I have seen in a long time. [..] I'll give it a 95% chance cakepie is scum. exo, if you could just play well for a couple days and ease my doubts, that would be nice. I'm not even given a chance to play well for a couple days, cuz if I'm town I have to be stupid.
On December 10 2016 15:36 Tumblewood wrote:I will try to make things as easy as possible for NU, who I predict is the axis vote in this case. but don't get your hopes up too much On December 10 2016 13:31 ExO_ wrote: I 100% believe TW. I checked the places where he crumbed. Though it could've been fake, some of the letters it made no sense to cap. The amount of effort TW has put in, combined with the fact that both Cakepie and CR tried to get a train going on him (and failed) leaving him alive goes a long way to helping me believe him.
Cakepie's and CR's claims are obviously bullshit. Cakepie doesn't say who he checked N0 or N1, CR checked the dead guys. Very convenient.
NU looks like you are the decider here, and the only person other than TW I'm going to be concerned with. Let me know any questions you have more me, any analysis you might want, or anything you might find interesting. On December 10 2016 18:09 ExO_ wrote: TW look at cakepie. He's proposing to you literally everybody as a potential scum. It's wise to consider all possibilities, but he's proposing every scenario to everyone in an attempt to get people to move their votes.
I don't see ExO giving me a fair shake.
I see how things are. This is coming down to NU. For scum!TW, this was the plan anyways (but now needing less effort than before). I'm going to have to fight hard to earn back a town read, get him to untunnel Ray, and see why TW and ExO are scum. That's fine. It means I only need to speak to NU.
This also means that NU is going to have demands for his attention from everyone.
But it's okay. TW and ExO are going to keep bombarding him with "look at this, obv scum" type arguments. It's "face value" stuff that shouldn't take him long to process.
I'm going to work to show NU a different type of argument. He's not familiar with it, but if he is still willing to listen to the bloody idiot who has in all likelyhood thrown the game, I will endeavor to show him what H1, Ray, and myself have been doing, and how we are thinking. It's about giving things finding and weighing scum and town motivations, and weighing scum and town explanations under good faith.
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On December 10 2016 18:44 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 02:04 cakepie wrote:... My ExO case post #186 seems weak because I deliberately tried not to include any associative read stuff of TW+ExO. At the same time I pressured TW, and the idea behind it is that with a more solid scum read on TW, we can move on to discuss TW+ExO on firmer footing. ... You said that the case on ExO was weak compared to the associative reads you had at this time. So I looked at all your associative reads prior to #186, ignoring everything that came after, or any individual reads (because they were apparently weak). I don't fully buy that you had enough evidence to make an associative case at the time that you claimed. Can you please explain your thoughts at the moment where you had associative reads but didn't post them?I think that it's definitely plausible that TW+ExO is the scumteam. I'm currently on a weekend trip, so I can't delve it too much now. I'll be on for a short while Saturday night, and I'll be on Sunday before the deadline.
No, you misunderstand that quoted.
I'm saying that I gimped #186 because I had associative reads in my head at that time but chose not to put them in #186.
I wanted to give time for the number of interactions to increase. I wanted to continue pushing TW further into solid scum territory. Given time, if I am right about their association, I will get more material, and a stronger basis to associate ExO to solidscum!TW.
Tipping them off that I'm on their tail may make them more guarded and harder to catch.
At the time of #186, I had - the niggling feeling that ExO was evasive, especially re TW - the only ?solid content? was attacking CR's case (proxy defending TW) - the N0 interactions.
Ray, I wish I had the luxury of time to engage with you, but my focus is going to have to be on working with NU. Unless TW and/or ExO extend good faith to me. But they're not doing so.
Today was supposed to be me helping NU town you so we can lynch scum together, but now I have a different task. I'll clarify/correct you when you don't get what I'm saying or if you misunderstand what I wrote (like above). Things I tell NU, you can read and process as well.
Otherwise you're on your own to figure stuff. But I don't think you need my help. I hope you'll do what you can. Maybe at some point NU will be willing to read you on good faith.
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On December 11 2016 00:03 NeverUnlucky wrote: CP: If you really are VT and your goal was to bullet-bait, why did you not rescind your claim immediately after the EoN post? You keeping your claim until the tables flipped and rescinding then is really strange and scummy. Rescinding after the day started wouldn't have affected your intent of bullet baiting as the NK was already done. Also, if your intent was to bullet bait, why would you post it at :59? You're not letting scum a lot of time to react, so your intent of taking the bullet as VT would be nullified. The whole thing was a terrible idea and poorly executed and I didn't even realized I had fucked up royally until it was far too late. Not rescinding after the day started was because I had an awareness that TW could fake?claim naive cop whose plan was flawed due to focusing on conftown to him, the cop, if he can live long enough. By process of elimination from my reads, Ray would have to be the real cop. I was worried about VT NU in cop?TW vs cop? situation so I stayed until Ray was in.
Of course, this was all before I realized that I'd fucked up royally.
Another thing is, I was trying to figure out if the NK was a (somewhat) confident bluesnipe, or a shaky bluesnipe, or not a blusnipe at all. Because I was mainly thinking about that, it took a while for me to realize my huge throw.
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On December 11 2016 00:03 NeverUnlucky wrote: You talk about the possibility that I am a scummer with Ray, but you are town-reading us both. I'm stressing "talk the possibility" because you did not say why me or Ray would be scum individually. So, what about my play and Ray's play would make us scum?
Context is important: I'm willing to be wrong about my read on TW. I'm willing to make a good faith effort to look at the possibilities if cop TW and idiot VT cake with horrid horrid reads.
NU+CR -- I have strong town reads on both of you individually. So I'm left with trying to do an association narrative first, and then perhaps I can revisit it later, untunneltown you guys, and use the narrative to help me find things to scum either of you individually. TW shoots it down very hastily because he towns you. [for scum!TW, this is part of his scripted act]
The next thing I do is to look at the other possibility: CR+ExO. I can start with the parts where I individually scum ExO. But the narrative just doesn't come together and I get very bogged down.
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Why do you think that my read on Ray is not on good faith? Because at early D2 I don't think you've had the chance to re-eval him for EoD1 / early N1 yet. Or you're not interpreting it correctly.
Ray makes a good faith effort to understand ExO and explain himself to ExO. In contrast, ExO doesn't make a good faith effort to listen to Ray.
I'll also admit I that between posting about ExO+TW and getting CR to untunnel you, I didn't have time to check your case on CR and wrongly assumed it was still in OMGUS place. But early N1 was very strong CR TR for me and I was very alarmed that you had him top of the lynch.
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Why do you believe Ray's claim over TW's? Firstly obviously because I TR Ray and SR TW.
Also, the associative read I have for TW+ExO gets stronger and stronger the more either of them posts.- Approaching EoD1 I was seeing act 1: play for no lynch.
- In early N1 TW's posts don't come across as natural. [spoiler]He tries to mimic us. We've both sporadically talked about RL, like me going to dinner or you having school. He overdoes in three posts. He also makes a whole theatrical show of trying to avoid bias and slipping into omgus. If I didn't fuck up, he'd be wifoming omgus?notomgus against me.[spoiler]
- ExO immediately gives TW super towncred for "defending" and "effort" whereas I null his defense and have a gut feel that the effort is contrived
- Ray tries to understand ExO. ExO doesn't reciprocate
- So act 2 is: N1 make TW town, make Ray scum. Bash cakepie for bad tunnels. Win over NU.
- TW's crumb reveal "confirms" to me the entire charade. Act 3 has opened.
Then, there is the contrast between two groups of people. 1. Those who are willing to take the time to look over the possibilities and weigh them, and willing to untunnel on good faith and consider evidence that might show that they are wrong about something. Willing to change their mind. 2. Those who quickly accept or dismiss things on prima facie evidence. Quickly pick the option they like and don't stop to consider the alternatives.
In before I get accused of being a hypocrite since I tunneled all of D1 + N1 -- look at EoD1. I pressure vote and let TW defend himself, and unvote once he leaves. I was tracking on phone in bed and not evaluating him yet. Then I looked back at it out of the heat of the moment.
As for me tunneling for all sorts of "shitty reasons", and "pick the option they like and don't stop to consider the alternatives." I'll discuss that next.
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On December 11 2016 01:09 cakepie wrote: I was worried about VT NU in cop?TW vs cop?Ray situation so I stayed until Ray was in. ebwop: cop?TW vs cop?Ray. Additional elaboration: I can use my towncred to pass the cop baton to Ray when every claim is in. Including in case for some weird reason ExO wants to claim too. So I waited for everyone.
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On December 11 2016 02:31 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 16:26 cakepie wrote:On December 10 2016 16:04 Tumblewood wrote: and with ray, it's that you never seem to pressure him, you just always see the good side, which isn't how you have treated TW+ExO I did concede to you toward EoD1 that he was falling into scum territory. Also, I don't think I ever pressured NU and H1 very much either? Bolded is false?? Couldn't find it anywhere in your EoD posts. #179
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On December 11 2016 02:12 NeverUnlucky wrote: cake, I understand that from your pov Ray is the cop because you TR him and ExO+TW associative read is strong for you. However, I think how we read TW/Ray does not matter here at all. I think it's a matter of who's cop, and who's not. Who's town, and who's scum. So I'm asking you to drop your read on them both for a moment, re-read my D2 posts as well as TW's and Ray's, and tell me who do you believe is cop more. Ok, you're right. Scum!Ray had time to evaluate the claims that came before him. cop TW, idiot cake. He then formulates his fakeclaim to cater to idiot cake. Got it.
Forget me trying to persuade NU, gotta obey NU for a bit here.
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On December 11 2016 02:15 Tumblewood wrote: jeez cakepie why do you have such a strong aversion to scumreading chairman ray I'll try to fix that first thing tomorrow with a fresh mind. Too far gone at 3am.
TW, here's something that you can reciprocate for me to show me you're willing to work with shitVT cake. I revisit CR. You revisit ExO. We can try to meet in the middle. Because ExO+CR is what we're going to have to do if cop TW and shitVT cake agree that NU is town and CR+NU makes no sense.
For a start, #107, TW towns ExO focusing on the mistake part. NU and I both didn't like the way he couched his read. Doesn't matter that he confused cakepie/calix. He's not taking responsibility for a read he knows beforehand is wrong.
There's also how he seems to have kept evading a lot of questions. Inattentive, or trying to avoid taking a position / explaining own motives?
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Do we agree that we can just stop talking to ExO and throw out all of ExO's D2?
I lose the game by mislynching TW You lose the game by mislynching Ray
It's actually that simple.
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On December 11 2016 04:41 cakepie wrote: Do we agree that we can just stop talking to ExO and throw out all of ExO's D2?
I lose the game by mislynching TW You lose the game by mislynching Ray
It's actually that simple. no wait it's only that simple in my head. not as simple in NU's head.
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On December 11 2016 04:30 NeverUnlucky wrote: It's not about obeying me, it's about reaching a consensus on who's cop and who's mafia. If you believe that CRay is the cop (That his claim makes sense, not because you TR him), you should most definitely show me why. I'm not liking that you've dismissed all the points I've made on Ray since D1 and are now deciding to sheep me.
After fucking up with the fakeclaim, I started doubting myself and my reads. To the point that I actually extended good faith to TW and let NU's reasoning contaminate mine and willing to go try scum reading Ray.
But ExO's yelling is my wake up call.
My reads are correct and my mission is to help NU untunnel Ray and lynch TW.
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NU. Remember these weird things we both noticed?
- TW goes from mylo to a plan for D3 - ExO "unwillingly" tries to make a scumread on TW, but couches it in language that blames me
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On December 11 2016 05:26 NeverUnlucky wrote: But you're dodging the question re: Why did/do you think I could be scum?
ExO has been dodging questions all game long. - Why is TW town in #98 - Why he doesn't think TW buddied NU - etc etc. in my case which I hope you've read.
He's still dodging.
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On December 11 2016 05:31 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2016 05:28 cakepie wrote: NU. Remember these weird things we both noticed?
- TW goes from mylo to a plan for D3 - ExO "unwillingly" tries to make a scumread on TW, but couches it in language that blames me Can you make a single case on TW that doesn't rely on association? And I never blamed you, I said I was doubting my read because I was trusting yours too much (because I Thought you were Calix from the last mafia game)
Sure. The earliest one is still
- TW goes from mylo to a plan for D3 Scumslip. Trying to fake activity by discussing plan together with NU. Goes into blind enumeration mode. Forgets about mylo which he obviously knows.
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On December 11 2016 05:30 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2016 05:28 cakepie wrote: NU. Remember these weird things we both noticed?
- TW goes from mylo to a plan for D3 - ExO "unwillingly" tries to make a scumread on TW, but couches it in language that blames me Yes? That makes CRay cop?
No. You jolly well know that I only have CRay cop by process of elimination.
I need to show you why TW and ExO are scum individually, then by the association. I need to show you why CRay is town.
All this using reasoning/logic that you're not used to.
My job is not easy but I need you to listen.
Meanwhile, ExO and TW are just going to bombard you with the easy cheap reads you're used to.
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NU. How willing are you to follow long reasoning that you're not used to?
I don't sense you're very willing.
Part of it is a generational disconnect. I play in a different way. Ray and H1 also. You don't "get" us intuitively.
Part of it is that I've fucked up with the fakeclaim and the playing suboptimally for a good bit so far D2. I've overinvested earlier in the game but now I'm exhausted and burnt out and making unforced errors.
Are you willing to try to follow, or do you just want me to justify Ray cop in one small bite so you can just get this over with.
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On December 11 2016 05:47 ExO_ wrote: CR has to be scum. otherwise scum would immediately hammer now.
Unless, of course, TW and ExO are scum. Duh.
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Cakepie options. Convince NU that:
TW is scum individually ExO is scum individually
TW+ExO are scum together cake is town Ray is town
feel free to cross out any others.
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On December 11 2016 05:56 NeverUnlucky wrote: I'm willing to hear you and Ray out, though I will say that there is not much chance you're convincing me that TW is scum at this point.
And it has nothing to do with generations.
Nor with the fake-claim.
It's about Ray's claim being BS.
But I'll hear you guys out like I did for TW. If you would please condense as much as possible your case(s), it would be much appreciated.
On December 11 2016 05:57 NeverUnlucky wrote: I will follow.
Pick one. Which is it.
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On December 11 2016 06:06 ExO_ wrote: I'd like you to convince me how Ray is town. It's impossible, he's scummy as hell, but I'd like to hear how you're going to justify your scum buddy as town. Do me a favor and STFU.
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On December 11 2016 05:28 cakepie wrote: NU. Remember these weird things we both noticed? - TW goes from mylo to a plan for D3 - ExO "unwillingly" tries to make a scumread on TW, but couches it in language that blames me
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Actually, let's start from a different angle. You said I'm not likely to convince you that TW is scum.
Let's town Ray.
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Fuck this. You're not being receptive and just want easy answers. And I'm too tired to do this properly.
I popped back out of bed to post something quick and now it's almost 6am. I'm never going to get any sleep if I continue at this rate.
I want to "play to win" but I'm not going to do it at the cost of my health, I'm already starting to fall ill from fucking over my sleep schedule massively the first few days. (in b4 appeal to emotion)
I'm going to take care of me first When I'm properly rested and if NU is actually willing to listen I'll try give it a shot again.
I'm very sorry town. If it comes to it, I accept the blame for throwing this game.
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It took a while last night for be to get over being fucking mad at myself so I only managed about four hours of sleep. I'm still struggling to keep my eyelids open, and I'm definitely coming down with the cold.
I'm not at 100% yet. But I'm going give it one last shot and try to do what I can. I fucking refuse to lose this game without putting up a fight. Not after everything I've put into it.
On December 11 2016 06:13 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2016 06:07 cakepie wrote:On December 11 2016 05:56 NeverUnlucky wrote: I'm willing to hear you and Ray out, though I will say that there is not much chance you're convincing me that TW is scum at this point.
And it has nothing to do with generations.
Nor with the fake-claim.
It's about Ray's claim being BS.
But I'll hear you guys out like I did for TW. If you would please condense as much as possible your case(s), it would be much appreciated. On December 11 2016 05:57 NeverUnlucky wrote: I will follow. Pick one. Which is it. It's both jeez. They're saying the fucking same thing. Stop beating around the bush and get to work already.
With the benefit of a clearer mind than before. It is not the same, NU. These two posts from you are NOT both "saying the same fucking thing."
1. There IS a generation gap this game. H1, Ray and I have been playing the game one way. You, TW and ExO are playing the game in another way.
Your continued refusal to accept the generation gap makes it impossible to get across to you.
2. I originally thought that it was my fault that I wasted all my towncred by fakeclaiming, and continuing to be suboptimal. I blamed myself because I thought that if I still had that towncred, I might be able to get across to you better. So I was also very upset (at myself) when you said that it had nothing to do with me losing towncred with my fake claim.
But now I can see that it's mostly not my fault. It goes back to the generation gap. The way I perceived my own play earning towncred is using the standards that H1, Ray and I are playing by. I don't have that kind of towncred with you at all. You're still playing a different game from me, which is the real reason why I'm not getting across to you.
It's still my fault for being suboptimal D2 thus far, but that is really a product of my burnout. I'm not a great player, but I gave so much early on. So much so that I overdid it, got fatigued, actually fell sick, and started playing like shit because I just wasn't in the right mental, physical and emotional state to play properly. So I can take some cold comfort that up until I started committing unforced errors, I am, compared to NSM8 cakepie, possibly up for the most fucking improved player award. And in the fact that I was correct. I found scum on my first two reads.
At this point you might be thinking, WTF, cakepie is writing a postmortem even the game is over.
I am.
Because I can see how this game is most likely going to end. And it is really the best argument I have right now.
This game is a fantastic study case for the phenomenon where old players pop back in and find that the level of play has really declined.
I'm not even that 'old school', and I used to be lousy by the 'old school' standards. But I'm finding my confidence, because I've fucking finally improved.
Before I started fucking up, I was right about the state of the game. I need to show NU the ways of the old guard.
So I need NU to be open to accepting that we've been two groups of people playing two different games, and let me try to teach him as best as I can in the little time that we have.
+ Show Spoiler +Seriously, someone -- who is a better and more experienced player than I -- needs to make an updated "how to improve" to teach the newblood about the tricks of the old hands.
So, yes, I am going to be writing a postmortem before the game is over.
NU, this comes down to how willing you are to learn to improve, and how good a learner you are in the little time we have.
Coming up next.
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Please don't be an idiot.
I'm going to need time to write my post.
I'm not great by the old standards yet. But I now have renewed confidence that I have learned some of the important lessons that my coaches of old tried to teach me.
I'm not the best teacher for this stuff. But I will try to teach you what I have learnt, NU.
If RL permits, stay up late if you have to. I've pulled like 3 or 4 all-nighters already. If you're town, you owe me at least this one.
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On December 11 2016 13:11 NeverUnlucky wrote: cakepie, I really don't see the point of your argument. What difference does it make if there is a generation gap or not in the fact that Ray is scum and TW is cop? Why is your goal trying to convince me that we're playing different games? To claw back the win. Really.
On December 11 2016 13:11 NeverUnlucky wrote: But okay, I'll bite. Yes, we seem to play two different games. You apparently play in a world where who is mafia and who is town is determined by how much town credits they've earned (?) and how they have contributed to the game. not quite.
Remember. I've been talking about 1. town and scum explanations 2. town and scum motivations 3. good faith -- giving people a fair shake
On December 11 2016 13:11 NeverUnlucky wrote: While I live by the philosophy that one single action/post can make someone undoubtedly scum. No. Don't do that.
On December 11 2016 13:11 NeverUnlucky wrote: Your 'generation' has a fetish for posting walls of text That's just me doing it poorly.
On December 11 2016 13:11 NeverUnlucky wrote: hunting for logic while 'mine' prefers shorter posts and back and forth discussion. This method favors reading players emotionally. I'm not going to discount emotion reads outright. But you're right, part about it is about using logic.
Emotion reads are fine, but they feed into the pointers I put above. Then, using logic, piece all the possible scenarios together and see what is the most plausible narrative.
"Narrative" is another word that you guys trigger on and don't understand.
The tl;dr is: in a mafia game, a lot of the evidence is going to be subjective but many small pieces of circumstantial evidence can come together into a whole that is greater than the parts. for every post, every read, every mistake, you must consider both sides of the coin. 1 & 2 above. 3. is being willing to listen, and admit when you're wrong. (This is why I super TR Ray) And then, consider every permutation of both sides of the coin for every little bit of evidence. THEN you apply occam's razor and find the most plausible narrative or scenario.
NOT
see one thing. apply occam's razor immediately. finish.
which is how you're operating.
On December 11 2016 13:11 NeverUnlucky wrote: Can you tell me where you are going with this? I want to teach you so we can maybe win the game.
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If you're still with me, I can show you why H1's death makes Ray and I town by the old guards ways, and why the rest of you are newblood who don't get it. Which is why you're so willing to listen to the scum.
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We can make this a discussion instead of me posting a tutorial.
I was going to make a tutorial under the assumption you're not around. But you're here. we're already discussing.
How well are you following #465?
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On December 11 2016 13:24 NeverUnlucky wrote: it's been 10 minutes since I made 463 and you still haven't responded. If I were to stay late at night, I'd want it to be a discussion, not a wall of text exchange
465 responds to 463. if this is a discussion, I need to know what you think of it before I move on to talking about H1's death.
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Look, I'm not actually that optimistic. If you really struggle to follow, then I'm wasting my time anyways. You can go ahead and hammer and someone else can tell you guys what happened this game. And I can actually go rest my cold.
But if you're willing to listen in good faith -- that's the first lesson you need to learn -- then I have some hope of clawing back the win. It's not likely, but I'm playing to my wincon here and refusing to continue letting my team down like I've been doing the whole of early D2.
This is all wifom to you, of course.
Do you truly have an open heart and a willingness to learn?
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On December 11 2016 13:32 NeverUnlucky wrote: I see how you guys read, but don't know why you'd be giving everyone such a big margin of error when mafia are obviously going to try and make as few mistakes as possible. But they're going to make mistakes. You need to be able to identify them.
I've done a bang splendid job of it. You have the beginnings of being able to do it. If you just stop playing using only emotion and happily accepting that all mistakes are honest town mistakes.
On December 11 2016 13:32 NeverUnlucky wrote: I don't really want a tutorial. This is a conversation now.
On December 11 2016 13:32 NeverUnlucky wrote: I'm more interested in knowing why Ray is town and TW is scum.
I can show you using the pointers in #465 and then analysis of early D2 reaction to H1's flip.
Also, looks like I can teach you about telling between scum mistakes and town mistakes.
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On December 11 2016 13:38 cakepie wrote: Also, looks like I can teach you about telling between scum mistakes and town mistakes.
Earlier D2 I keep bringing up those two things that we both found weird from TW+ExO respectively. You keep swatting it away (iirc "twice in one hour")
But you've found scumslips. You just didn't know it yet.
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Oh, one more thing.
On December 11 2016 13:23 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2016 13:11 NeverUnlucky wrote: Your 'generation' has a fetish for posting walls of text That's just me doing it poorly.
Basically, the idea behind it is to throw out all the things that we see that are possibly some kind of read. Whether it be based on emotion, logic, mistakes, inconsistencies, etc.
The reads may be good or bad. That's fine. They are:
1. Basis for discussion and refinement. - evaluate everything - toss out crap - correct faulty reads - share interpretations that others missed
2. It's a reaction check:
2a - people who resonate with me on weird things I caught are probably town like me, and it also reinforces the read. (This is why I TR you NU. Coming from the same VT pov, we gut check the same things to be weird.)
2b - people who try to consider both sides of the coin for each component of the case are town.
2cii - targets who only crush the weak reasons and don't/can't address the strong ones are scum (TW) 2cii - for other people, crushing the weak reasons is null UNLESS proxy defense in association read. (ExO)
2d - people with strange reactions are earmarked for attention (ExO saying TW didn't buddy you -- and not explaining it)
2e - if the target addresses a strong part of the read by showing me a good alternative town explanation or town motivation, I can evaluate that explanation on good faith.
Then the whole both sides of the coin for each argument, form a plausible narrative, occam's razor stuff.
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On December 11 2016 13:45 NeverUnlucky wrote: By "I don't really want a tutorial" I meant I don't want you to teach me how to play. I find this to be very arrogant if you're town and manipulative if you're scum. Keep it to your POV: why in your pov is x scum/town?
Do show me why his flip points to TW and ExO.
Fuck you, you can go ahead and hammer now. Don't waste my time.
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On December 11 2016 13:55 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2016 13:52 cakepie wrote:On December 11 2016 13:45 NeverUnlucky wrote: By "I don't really want a tutorial" I meant I don't want you to teach me how to play. I find this to be very arrogant if you're town and manipulative if you're scum. Keep it to your POV: why in your pov is x scum/town?
Do show me why his flip points to TW and ExO. Fuck you, you can go ahead and hammer now. Don't waste my time. tilted scumtown
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On December 11 2016 13:52 cakepie wrote: Keep it to your POV: why in your pov is x scum/town?
Okay. I will try to show you how I apply 465+475+481 to solve everything.
But you're not really as receptive as you need to be.
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NU, I'm sorry I yelled at you and I'm willing to forgive you for yelling back at me.
I triggered really hard that you called me arrogant. Because I've clearly expressed that I'm not the best player or best teacher for showing the ropes to you. I know it might come across as me preaching to you but I'm really not coming at you from a high and mighty position here. We've both been bad this game. It's just that I'm a bad but improving player trying to help fellow town improve. Because we might just be able to win this.
I do appreciate that you realized you were straying into toxicity and held back.
And I think that we both got too caught up in the heat of the moment here.
For you to go to bed and come back later hopefully with a fresh mind is actually good for us here.
It also gives me time to write. Cuz holy shit I take a long time to write stuff. People call me out for being scum being overcautious, but it's really a NAI trait for me. So me having time and you not being impatient is better for us.
I'm going to take a break (lunch etc) before coming back to post the things I promised, when I'm less angry at you.
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On December 11 2016 16:07 Tumblewood wrote:shit why do I have to convince that you ray is maf. he should've already done that for you by not posting for 20 hours in remembrance: Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 10:05 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 10 2016 10:04 NeverUnlucky wrote: Ray's claim is way too convenient, and I think TW is the real cop due to my reasoning in 331.
##Vote Chairman Ray
If you hammer, please have the decency of telling your alignment while we wait for the end game post. How did you know game was going to end? SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP
Thanks dude, I could use that. Also thanks for collecting the interactions between me and Ray. You've been unwittingly so helpful -- I don't have to filter so hard now since you're passing me the things I need as I go.
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On December 11 2016 16:32 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2016 16:20 Chairman Ray wrote: cakepie you are a fucking HERO. If we end up winning this, it'll all be because of you. If we lose, it's 100% my fault for being stupid and signing up for a mafia game when I had a day trip today. yeah because he's your fucking teammate You know it's true.
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Using the method of play that I outlined in 465+475+481 to read TW
TW:
+ Show Spoiler +posting bad planTown explanation: trying to figure out the game. Quality of explanation: can only be taken at face value if you trust TW. plan is bad. Scum explanation 1: Trying to sell a bad plan this was my first explanation. I thought TW might be trying to trick town NU into a bad plan. + Show Spoiler [aside read] +NU also posted plans. however, I can townread him because he caught a bad part of TW's plan -- using cop to check doc -- and posted an improvement: sac doc to scum nk. I also #104 ask NU about his plans and it checks out with what I see. Therefore, unlike TW, NU is more probable to be town trying to figure out the game, because he DID improve TW's shitplan. Also, same as NU, I sensed TW trying to buddy NU but not vice versa. Quality of explanation: rather farfetched Scum explanation 2: faking activity. I didn't have this explanation initially. I got it from CR from a different conversation. + Show Spoiler [aside] +Because I only have the explanation of "selling bad plan", I ask CR about his case. I know he relies on both TW+NU scum together. I find it odd to make an association read on a scumteam for the motivation of 2 scum both loudly selling bad plan + slightly less bad plan. #148 (I also offer him alternate viewpoints for his case). CR gives me #144 the explanation of faking activity. And that explanation also works in my case! Quality of explanation: plausible blindly going from mylo to d3NU, you caught this as well. Which increased my mindmeld with you (in addition to the buddying) and gave me TR on you. Town explanation: honest mistake Quality of explanation: can only be taken at face value if you trust TW. Scum explanation: lazily faking activity, and scumslipped. Quality of explanation: subjective, but both NU and myself (if not others) found it incredibly odd for a townie to so quickly forget about mylo. my case on TW's defense against badplan read#149I call TW out for swatting at the obvious tinfoil. At this point, I have the "faking activity" explanation thanks to CR. "Mislead" isn't limited to steering town toward or away from any particular plan. "if you've been paying attention, you'll know that there is now another explanation: you're trying to mislead us into (thinking you're contributing when you're not) Your "plan" post is you starting to try to get into NU's good books, which escalates into full blown buddying. Because NU uses plan talk as activity, you do the same, and then later on continue to buddy with him on the basis that both of you are "figuring the game out" and advancing town interests by doing the same thing now we have two suspicious things that make sense when considered together. reinforce scumread.You didn't address how you suddenly go from "D1 mylo" to optimism for D3. Townies are allowed to be wrong, I don't think but townies are allowed to be negligent. So let's suppose your planpost was an honest mistake. When I posit that your plan relies on a weak premise, you don't even check. You snark back at me confidently with incorrect math. If TW was indeed townie trying to figure out the game, he would have checked for mistakes. He didn't. downgrade trust in TW's town explanation for badplanTW "TR's" ExO's fuck up(this is not actually an associative read) feels very candid. it is hard as scum to fake viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint to reflect that. also it would be a lot of attention to detail to fake a mistake and react realistically. Seems reasonable at first glance. But something looks off to me. - he says 'hard as scum to...' and doesn't actually explicitly TR ExO. - does not hold up to scrutiny: see #205Scum explanation: Buddy defense, but scumslipped scumslip #1: avoiding TMI too hard scumslip #2: avoiding taking strong positions scumslip #3?: slightly strange reasoning due to fake TR. Quality of explanation: plausible but subjective Town explanation: It's really a TR, and maybe TW just worded it a bit off. Quality of explanation: plausible but subjective + Show Spoiler +associative scum explanation: scum selling the line that "mistakes are okay guys. I made some, he made some. we're both townies making honest mistakes." TW's D1 contribution up until I pressure voteDefends against CR Defends against me Weird "TR" on ExO (null) No original scumhunting whatsoever.scum explanation: scum can't scumhunt / find it hard to fake scumhunting quality: plausible town explanation: too busy defending self quality: take him at his word for it? TW's EoD defenseNULL. both scum and town will defend themselves. There's no need to HARDTOWN for defending. (association: ExO!!!) TW's EoD TR on NUNULL at best still not scumhunting: scum. TW's N1 cases'Town' explanation: If you're thinking, "TW is posting cases and "looking at both sides of the coin" " ... no. Making case posts with pro-town pro-scum can be faked by scum. It is NULL. When I say "looking at both sides of the coin" I refer to evaluating each individual read, each small piece of evidence. Like I'm trying to demo to you right now. 'Town' explanation: "effort". Can be faked. NULL (association: ExO!!!!) Gut feel: looks weird -- overdramatic. faking something. Trying to seem like NU and I. Quality: subjective, but if NU feels the same way, then we can both self-contradiction in case against me -- both high effort town and low effort scum. I can't be both high effort and low effort at the same time.'Town' explanation: honest mistake quality: not again? this is getting old. scum explanation: tried too hard to fake case, fucked up. quality: quite likely.
I could go on, but I think that's quite enough. There are enough circumstantial pieces to put together to make TW strongly scum. Especially parts where NU reinforces my read, and where multiple pieces of evidence fit together to form an increasingly plausible, coherent story.
As for mistakes, remember I've mentioned before: don't assume that town makes mistakes because they are carefree, and scum don't make mistakes because they are very cautious against it. When pressed, or forced to take a position, or forced to fake something, scum will make mistakes, for all their trying. It's why the word "scumslip" exists.
SCUM by himself
SUPER DUPER SCUM when you do the same thing with ExO, find ExO scum, then associate the two together.
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Ebwop didnt finish sentence
On December 11 2016 18:00 cakepie wrote: Gut feel: looks weird -- overdramatic. faking something. Trying to seem like NU and I. Quality: subjective, but if NU feels the same way, then we can both upgrade the plausibility of this read
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Supplement, because this came to mind while I was writing up CR.
On December 11 2016 18:00 cakepie wrote: TW's EoD TR on NU NULL at best still not scumhunting: scum.
? scum!TW is fake whiteknighting NU here ?
TW was the lynch. Why is TW defending NU while being under threat of lynch @ w/2 votes to hammer?
TW didn't get hammered. looking at the 4 ppl who are around (3 voters, TW) there are many possibilities for who's town/scum here but I'll let you work that out.
town explanation: TW was attacking CR's case as a whole?
scum explanation: If scum!TW was playing cakepie case Act 1: nolynch. He knows he's not going to get lynched, because NU is not around. fake whiteknighting.
I'll let you evaluate these reads quality on your own, NU. (mainly bcuz no time to explain I want to get back to CR read draft for you)
You can evaluate (TW's NU defense while under lynch) and (TW not getting lynched) together as "linked" evidence because they're tied to the lynch.
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Sweet I can show that if EoN1 cakepie had time and was thinking straight, there are ways to read CR cop. I can assert that applying my methods, a notfrazzled cakepie could and should have been able to give CR a cop read.
Thanks NU for putting my head on straight and telling me to go back and evaluate CR.
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Using the method of play that I outlined in 465+475+481 to read CR -- part 1
CR:
+ Show Spoiler +enters D1 lynching two players for shit reasons, associating NU with TWscum explanation: this guy is just pushing preconceived, preplanned mislynches quality: actually really unlikely unless scum is shit or scum has balls of steel. attracts too much heat. pretty damn dangerous thing to do as scum because town is going to react violently to being lynched for shit reasons. (See: NU's reaction.) town explanation: he is scumhunting, using something he found odd and pushing to find out why. doing it poorly, but scumhunting nonetheless quality: plausible. + Show Spoiler +Complex eval based on CR copclaim (this is might be difficult to follow. skip over it and come back later if you struggle here):
CR going after NU+TW is actually also possibly influenced by the fact that he was indeed real cop who checked Koshi and Koshi died.
1. He's pissed at losing the doc AND the fact that he wasted his check. This is affecting his judgement and is a contributing factor to his read being shit.
2. If you recall, part of his argument revolved around "koshi was respect killed, not bluesniped" and he's going after 2 of 3 people who "respected" Koshi on N0. cop!CR checking Koshi might be influenced by the fact that he sees Koshi derping and (conf!pretending) not to know about how roles work in this game. If you're scum or a blue role, you definitely fucking check the setup! So, cop!CR who was fooled by Koshi's pretend-derp also say that "scum wasn't bluesniping" -- consciously or subconsiously assuming that scum would be fooled just as he was.
Quality: This makes the towncop explanation more plausible and supports CR's copclaim. + Show Spoiler + Now suspend your gut reaction for a moment, NU. Hear me out, and even if you don't buy my reasoning here, hang on: there are better examples later.
new concept: cop explanation: he has a red check on TW and is associating NU to solid scum, without revealing his check yet.
NU reaction: WTF? Why would town be bluehunting! This is the second time I've caught you doing that this game! scum!scum!scum! <- don't do this. calm down. explanation: It's not blue hunting. It's an extension of the whole town/scum motivation thing I've been doing all along. "If he's cop, does that somehow explain what's going on here?" When you see things like that, you can flag it for yourself in your mind, and if the player claims later on, you can see if their claim and this flag support one another, and use it to evaluate their claim.
In this case, CR claims he checked Koshi N0. Oh well, the cop explanation turned out to be useless.
But, imagine a world where CR survives to D2 and claims N0 cop redcheck on TW. You'd be able to say, 1. if he's cop, that might explain what he is doing here 2. what he did here is consistent with his claimed check
I saw this at that time. This one is not "in hindsight".
player reactions to CR case: {NU, TW, ExO} absent any other info, players attacking, or targets defending against a shit read are null. + Show Spoiler [but with my game solution] +NU hits back at CR because NU is town. (relying on scumreads) TW+ExO hit back as defense. town!Cakepie tries to help CR improve his scumhunting by pointing out flaws and suggesting other viewpoints + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 13:10 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 11:46 Chairman Ray wrote: In my experiences, mafia tend to buddy up more when they're the most active ones, and draw distance when town are the most active ones. If the two mafia were the active ones in the middle of a quiet town, I could totally see them patting each other on the back for being active. Isn't that a bit circular and self-reinforcing? 1. Active players seem to buddy in quiet N0 -> 2. mafia together? -> 3. oh look mafia buddying in quiet town -> 4. go back to step 2 Furthermore, I think it looks more like only one (TW) is actively buddying. I think NU might already started smelling a rat and was questioning why/how TW formed that absurd TW/NU/Koshi circle: Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 15:48 cakepie wrote:I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74. I believe that NU could be genuinely (if naively) broaching the possibility of "If VTs agree never to fakeclaim, all CCs become MvT". TW jumps at the opportunity to gain easy towncred by enumerating possible scenarios according to mechanics, and to engage NU to try to start a buddybuddy going jerking over setup. TW's scumbuddy is somewhere else, and I think they could be tentatively drawing distance at that point in time, with town?NU active, soondead!Koshi and uncertainty over how active the rest of us would behave. If you're going down the road of associative reads I think there's more interesting interactions than just backpatting. @NU I told you CR was scumhunting (with flaws), you asked me if that was a TL and I said yes. Do you now see why/how? Also, at that time, I didn't have super firm reads on either of you, so I let you guys fight (then I can eval those posts for reads -- but as you know I became busy with real scum cases and never quite got to it.) It was not until I came back middle of N1 that I had both of you solid town and then had to try to stop your TvT. (But did so hurriedly due to priority being on putting out scumreads and EoN) There is CR fighting ExO and TW too, but likewise as with the NU case I let the fighting go on "to obtain more information". continues pushing his "shitty" readTown explanation(s): He's trying to get reactions and evaluate them. Just like I did with TW. Maybe he's not doing it quite correctly and there are flaws with his case. But "he is scumhunting in his own way. That's a lot more than what some people have been up to." <-- remember I said this, NU? Scum explanation: really pushing mislynches hard for shitty reasons! I choose town explanation. NU chooses scum explanation, and is unable to see why CR might be doing this as town. (this reflects NUll on NU) CR is absent for long periodstown explanation: he's just away for a bit scum explanation: he faked scumhunting he made (poor) cases, and has stopped pushing them (to get reactions/discussion i.e. using town playbook). cakepie evaluation: could be either. The longer he's not here, the more it looks like scum explanation than town explanation. (This is my read evolution on CR, before he returned near EoD1, he was gradually "entering scum territory" Starts arguing with TWTown explanations: He wants to figure out why his case is being attacked He wants to push to gauge reactions to his case He is willing to extend good faith to TW and try to understand what TW is telling him.Scum explanation: Just arguing for arguing's sake. He's pushing TW mislynch. NU saw only the scum explanation. NU needs to try to see the town explanation. This is one of the important things that I wanted NU to see and TR Ray for.Votes TWTown explanation: CR towns me because I'm obvtown (by our play methods.) Both of us strongly scum TW (my case is good, his case is poor, but he also agrees with my case) You can see CR evaluation and analysis of TW's reaction vs cases where he's the target hereTherefore, we are both townies with very a solid scumread on TW. Whereas I pressure voted, CR is lynching scum. He's that confident. Scum explanation: CR and cakepie have tunneled TW all day long and are voting to lynch when the safe thing to do is to nolynch. + Show Spoiler +but nolynching for "safety" alone is an easy cop-out. Even NU implies here that he'd be willing to vote if he were confident enough on a read. Again, NU needs to see the other possibility NU case again?tl;dw: scumhunting, presenting read for reaction / discussion / refinement. Engages with ExO#252 onwardThis one is important to look at NU. He knows there's only so much he can get out of TW and you because you're his targets. But he's willing to talk to ExO as well. - He's not sure of ExO's alignment yet (at that time, my ExO case was standalone only, containing no association) - He's talking to ExO more, to apply the reaction test based on ExO's reaction to his case (as a bystander) + Show Spoiler +but ExO is defending his buddy - He's extending good faith to ExO to try to properly understand ExO's disagreement with his case - He is ready to admit that he is wrong, and concedes that "both [ExO] and TW gave me shit for the way I present my reads, I know that I fucked that up."Town explanations: - gauging reaction to case - trying to understand what's wrong with his case so he can refine it - discussion on good faith rather than "you must be scum for disagreeing with me" - town admits they fucked up. Scum explanation: - manipulate ExO somehow? - scum got caught fucking up. This is another thing that I wanted NU to see and TR Ray for.Fucking up is NAI. It's unfair if you give TR to TW and ExO for ALL their mistakes (honest mistake! seems natural!) and yet tunnel on to the scum explanation for scum?CR fucking up. He should be allowed to fuck up as town as well. Plus all the other town explanations available here.
This is not all of it yet, but the important things for towning CR are there. TOWN psychological analysis reason to maybe believe CR's cop claim
On December 10 2016 06:21 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 03:31 NeverUnlucky wrote:Sorry for going MIA for 24h, I was cuahgt up in my finals yesterday. I should be much more active during the weekend For now, I've an essay to write that is due in 4 hours (same time as EoN), so if I can't make an appearance before EoN, this is my order of lynching in case I get killed: Ray TW ExO H1 cakepie No. Stop. Don't OMGUS Ray.If you've been away due to finals, I don't think you've had a chance to properly catch up since your last post here. Make sure you properly look at Ray's EoD1 and N1.
NU... here, I told you not to OMGUS Ray. This wrongly assumed that you can play using the same town playbook that I am using. But you weren't. Which is why you took great issue with my use of the term "OMGUS" here. But, now that I've walked you through my playstyle and strategy -- do you see why I call it omgus? You reach for the scum explanation instinctively when CR targets you. (I don't blame you. doing so is null on you.) But NU, you need to see that there is another possibility.
Also, in this quoted post I strongly urge you to evaluate Ray on EoD1 and N1. I've highlighted the strong townreads above for you, you should have seen them.
Therefore, my read evolution on CR goes from a townlean early on (for scumhunting poorly) to scumlean (for possibly having fucked off and stopped+faked scumhunting) as D1 wore on. But over the course of EoD1 and N1, strong townreads for ExO came in, removing any doubts I had from him being away.
The case for Ray town/cop is not complete yet, but I'm putting a pause here to give NU breathing room to process and digest before moving forward.
NU, take your time to think about this carefully. TvT happens. Can you please consider CR TvT on you?
I asked CR to stop TvT you before posting TW+ExO bloated filter analysis (I admit it was very poorly done but that's what I managed at the time). Because I strongly TR him and strongly TR you (having had candid discussion (e.g. about H1) and under the impression that we were mindmelding well and using the same playbook.) And I needed him to stop his stupid tunnel on you and consider what I was about to say.
It took a while before he came back and read and respond to it. But he understands what I'm saying about - TW buddybuddy NU is a one way thing - NU is actually using planning to try to figure out the game wheras TW isn't And admits that he hadn't considered that possibility
This is a successful interaction of town helping town with reads, using the town playbook.
NU.
I have now shown by example how I'm using the town playbook. I've tried to show you that by using the playbook, I find CR to be town Now you can go (re?)read what CR has posted recently. Like I said, I'm not the best teacher, and I've rubbed you the wrong way last night by coming across as high-and-mighty. But CR explains the whole "encyclopedia of town" and "excyclopedia of mafia" more eloquently. Give CR a fair shake.
---
I've showed you that TW is using the mafia playbook. You can go back to things I said about ExO being scum individually. You'll hopefully see that it's the mafia playbook.
And then look at TW and ExO being scum together. Once you can accept that possibility with an open mind, start plugging in all the association read stuff. And the whole charade that they've put up, a huge plan that is tailored specifically to deceive you, NU, and drive CR and myself into a corner where they can just keep yelling at us.
This scumteam is not to be trifled with. Respect them for the effort that they've put in. I underestimated them and fucked up. But it's okay now. I have them figured out for sure now. I was right all along.
---
consider the possibility that everything I'm trying to tell you is true. See how I'm putting together a reasoned argument using the strategy that I claim to be using? And that the reasoned argument shows - TW is using the mafia playbook. - CR is using the town playbook (poorly, and he has very willingly admitted this).
Before I posted these, the only response from the scumteam so far has been to throw smoke in your face, tempt you to take the easy way out, discredit me, etc. Which is all WIFOM. Because the other option is that I am correct.
You can see that sometimes I stop and snipe back at TW+ExO too -- showing that the other way round is also possible.
I had been playing suboptimally early in D2. But when I start posting more and more solid stuff, they throw more and more WIFOM. As I move toward posting these for you, they keep trying to sell you that I'm making a huge deception to mislead you.
You need to recognize their WIFOM for what it is.
Can you smell the increasing fear in their WIFOM?
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Now that I am putting this up. Expect scum to react. Now they finally have something concrete to attack, They are going to try to rip my posts to pieces. They will try to sell to you only the scum explanations for each of the things I did.
You need to learn by example from me. I'm not trying to be arrogant and show that I'm better than you.
I was really really shit in NSM8. But with effort, I've made tremendous improvement this game.
I see that you have the same gut sense reactions to scumslips as I do. I believe that you can learn how to tell the scumslips from the honest mistakes.
Take my hand. We can both improve our townplay this game. I believe in you. We're not the best. But we can be heroes together and claw this game back from the clutches of the scumteam.
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There is more stuff still not posted yet. They involve more "advanced" methods. So this is a break point so that NU can process everything so far, before we move to harder things.
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insert scumteam yelling - the "obvious" choice is correct: scum?CR trying to mislynch VT!NU. - cakepie and ray orchestrated all of this to deceive and mislead NU
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On December 11 2016 05:58 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2016 05:52 cakepie wrote:On December 11 2016 05:47 ExO_ wrote: CR has to be scum. otherwise scum would immediately hammer now. Unless, of course, TW and ExO are scum. Duh. I think turning this into a 2v2 was a mistake. oh shit I fucked up as scum. ftfy.
ExO wanted to say this:ExO is VT. TW is ?cop -- one scum needed to hammer orExO is VT. TW is ?fakecop -- TW's scumbuddy needed to hammer.
He forgot:On December 11 2016 05:52 cakepie wrote: Unless, of course, TW and ExO are scum. Duh.
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Ray claims cop. <-- is cop or scum TW claims cop. <-- is cop or scum cakepie fakclaims cop then claims VT <-- is VT or scum NU claims VT <-- is VT or scum ExO claims VT <-- is VT or scum
VT claims trying hard to solve the game: cakepie, NU <-- VT VT claims trying hard to end the game quickly: ExO <-- scum
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On December 11 2016 15:46 Tumblewood wrote: NU actually has more experience if you count that other site. See Ray's better explanation for my "generation gap" argument. Other site experience counts for nothing when our problem is TL old meta and TL new meta.
I'm not "old guard" like Ray. But I was a TL noob in those days and was trained by coaches who taught me the meta of that time.
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On December 11 2016 15:46 Tumblewood wrote: and cakepie, please don't kill yourself caring too much about a forum game. Thanks for concern. Meds are helping. But yeah, playing this hard is bad for my physical, mental and emotional well being.
@NU ignore. Just NAI banter.
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Therefore, my read evolution on CR goes from a townlean early on (for scumhunting poorly) to scumlean (for possibly having fucked off and stopped+faked scumhunting) as D1 wore on. But over the course of EoD1 and N1, strong townreads for [s]ExO[s] CR came in, removing any doubts I had from him being away.
ebwop. I made a mistake because in my brain was "my townread on CR comes from his interactions with TW and ExO"
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I was willing to swallow my pride and consider my scum!tw read to be wrong, and try to form TW+NU+cake town circle. That's good faith. + Show Spoiler +Of course, that was my logical faculties no longer working correctly under fatigue. But still the point stands.
TW was "willing" to engage shittired!cakepie on N2. But quickly eliminates one option. Not really keeping an open mind. That's not good faith.
Ray was willing to engage TW and ExO in EoD1 and N1 and admit he was wrong in some ways and try to understand things from their perspective. That's good faith.
ExO is unwilling to accept any other explanations except the one he already decided upon. + Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 19:52 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote:On December 09 2016 19:04 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #164 TW hard town reading me --> Scum trying to buddy me because I'm town. Other players I think are town think I might be scum because I wanted cop to reveal (because I thought we had to lynch today). However they think I might be scum faking it. TW isn't even considering this possibilty. #164
#170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk
#173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here.
#180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives
#182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain
#185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. Instead he reminds me a bit of myself getting scumread as VT in other TL Mafia games and trying to convince players I am town; subsequently the veterans turning everything I say into reasons why it makes me scum. idk When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum.
#186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me.
#203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU
#205 Cakepie should go read my dota mafia posts, and should look at the last game we played. When I'm town I usually just post whatever comes to mind. I don't sit and craft careful posts. When I'm scum I'm much more careful about what I post. You getting my stream of consciousness and seeing me move around on my reads is because I'm trying to sift through the information and am doubting myself as I go. Do you honestly think I'm faking this as scum? I have trouble believing that you do
#213 fuck off
#215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him
#217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum.
#228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum.
#231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted?
#234 CR still tunnelling NU very hard. I wish CR would consider some other possibility. To me he looks like he's more concerned with having presented a case and pushed it, rather than solving the game.
Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum.
CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum.
ExO, I don't think your read on me is fair, and to some extent, it's my fault for hunting scum on my own rather than being engaged with town. I think that you are town, so I will explain to you exactly what my thought process was. I really need you and all remaining town to trust me, or at least take my reads seriously, because we all need to vote together tomorrow to lynch the mafia. Where I'm at right now is that TW and NU are the mafia, you are town, cakepie is town, hopeless is town, and obviously I am town. I have mainly pushed onto TW and NU because there are only two mafia, and it's most definitely those two. I think we can all agree that TW is mafia. I pushed onto NU many times and he's given me shoddy answers the first few times, and he's literally disappeared now and hasn't responded to anything else I posted. I posted a case on him that I want him to respond to, and I want all the town to consider as well, and so far, neither has happened. Also, nobody else has given a strong case against anybody else. Do you see why I have no reason to get off of those two? I haven't pushed much on anybody else besides TW and NU, but that doesn't mean I haven't been considering or caring about them. As for you, hopeless, and cake, there's a lot I like about your play, and a lot that I don't like, but there's little that I can point to and say "hmm, this play is really advancing the scum agenda, and scum would instinctively do this". I don't post townreads or speculative posts on people because me not being able to scumread someone doesn't mean someone else can't. If someone convinces me of a better option than TW or NU, I'm willing to reconsider. I should probably be more actively engaging with people, and that's my bad. I also feel that I'm being singled out for tunneling. If you look at other people's filters, Hopeless has been tunneling only on TW, cakepie has mostly been on TW and you, and you haven't been aggressive enough to even be considered for tunneling. So besides the fact that I literally said that I'm tunneling onto TW and NU, singling me out seems a little biased. I don't think I can agree TW is mafia. I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game, and he's done some things that have looked scummy. But the type of posts he's made (particularly after #170), the big cases he posted, I don't think scum can fake that effort. A lot of people were tunneling him quite a bit but his reaction overall to that to me doesn't read scum now. I feel like pointing out that I'm singling you out for tunneling (I don't think I am) isn't really a town thing to post. To me, it screams "look at all these other people they are doing something just as bad." I don't think tunneling is necessarily scum-indicative. But these 2 players are the only players you've said anything about all game. I practically challenge you to give a read on anybody else and you just can't. You're so sure of TW and NU that you're going to stick to them non stop....and I don't buy it as a town trait. I think you are a scum player who is going to stick to those reads come hell or high water. I mean look at your above post. "I think we can all agree TW is mafia: why? That's all you are going to offer here? And you're basically saying NU is scum because he gave some shoddy answers....but I don't see how that makes you lock in on scum so hard here. I don't see it. How are you so sure. No I think it's much more likely you are scum. I feel that it's very difficult to get through to you because you are interpreting everything I say in the worst possible way when I didn't mean it that way. + Show Spoiler +On December 10 2016 18:44 Chairman Ray wrote: cakepie, I read over your case. There's a lot I like, and some I don't like.
...
A couple things I would add to the ExO case from my own personal reads.
During the entire game, nearly every single post ExO made on me was really unfair and misconstrued me into a mafia mold, and was somewhat OMGUS. At the time I read this as town who honestly didn't know who was mafia. This would make sense if ExO came into this game, saw some red flags in me, and then held a strong bias that I must be mafia. Because a legit mafia would know that I'm town, and will only have a logical bias against me to try to get me lynched, but the OMGUS doesn't make any sense if I never gone on him for anything. So I thought he was just being a biased town; however, if I came into the game guns blazing against his mafia buddy, that would explain the OMGUS part.
...
That's not good faith.
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There are two narratives possible for what I'm doing.
town cakepie cakepie has discovered the scumteam and their nefarious plan
scum cakepie cakepie and CR have come up with a nefarious plan to mislead town. This plan involves contorting the filters of two townies to make it look like they are a scumteam with a nefarious plan.
Occam's razor, yo.
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On December 12 2016 03:16 Tumblewood wrote: AND BY THE WAY NOT CONSIDERING OTHER OPTIONS IS NIT STRICTLY SCUM.
I can agree with that! It could be scum, or a tunneled town.
On the other hand, being willing to be wrong about a previously firm position is a trait that is hard for mafia to fake. (being wishy washy doesn't count)
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On December 12 2016 03:20 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2016 16:58 ExO_ wrote: But I know that you can't be scum, because if CR was actually town the game would've been over already after I voted for him. I know you have to be telling the truth because of that fact alone. But Jesus Christ dude sometimes you say things that look scummy as hell. also your "ExO is not considering other options" thing doesn't even work because if you are me or ExO you can determine that ray's partner can only be you or NU, and if you have half a brain you can determine that NU is town
your logic only works for D2 ExO with the copclaim info.
I'm referring to N1 ExO.
nice try though
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We'll return to CR part 2 later. For now,
reading between the lines. Using town/scum/cop explanations/motivations to figure out what Hopeless1der was doing.
When this was actually happening, I only saw up to "cop" and didn't get the next level of "town pretending to be cop". But in hindsight I can find them.
On December 07 2016 00:21 Hopeless1der wrote: Why are there suggestions for the cop to claim during D1? Why not end of N1 when theres a chance at 2 checks? + Show Spoiler +if cop is under threat of lynch D1 he MUST claim when @ 3 votes if one of the voters is redchecked N0 @ 2 votes otherwise Doc (if still alive) will protect. If counterclaims, doc's responsibility to evaluate.
Whereas other players derp around about what cop should do, H1 already has the correct answer for optimal cop play in his entrance post. Scum who are bluehunting will definitely see this.
Possible things H1 is saying/doing
scum
let me earn towncred by showing you the correct answer
town/cop/doc
"this is the correct play, you fools"
>>>>> good town pretending to be cop <<<<<
I am going to plant this bluetell for the scum team to find
On December 08 2016 03:27 Hopeless1der wrote: cakepie is it okay if I just sheep you today?
scum, lazy/bad town
can I sheep you? Nope. They would sheep without asking permission. Like ExO (who couldn't explain "largely agree" satisfactorily)
good, attentive town
I townread you. Your case is good. Based on my reading of the thread, all the bases have been covered. I have nothing to add or subtract. Let me sheep you.
cop
I have a towncheck on you or I have a scumcheck on your target (TW)
good, attentive cop. combine good, attentive town + cop
>>>>> good, attentive town pretending to be cop <<<<< combine (good, attentive town) + I am pretending (cop)
On December 08 2016 03:37 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 03:27 Hopeless1der wrote: cakepie is it okay if I just sheep you today? No.
I am able to read between the lines. Please tell me more.
An incredulous good townie who can't use town/scum motivation to read between the lines would react a lot more strongly, because they would find it very weird to be asked for permission.
On December 08 2016 03:43 Hopeless1der wrote:k well I either want to lynch TW or no-lynch today.
good, attentive town
I have no other lynch candidates.
cop
I have a towncheck on you or I have a scumcheck on your target eliminates a possibility
On December 08 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote: Like wtf H1, at least try. Maybe we've exhausted the available material on TW, but tell me something about NU or ExO or CRay.
I am pretending to be incredulous. If you're telling me my case is solid, I got it. Can you help me out with these?
On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote: ExO has maintained that the cop should claim. I dont particularly agree, I'd rather tempt fate on a no-lynch and have the cop end-of-night phase post their N0 check, with the possibility of getting a N1 check as well. Besides that, ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread, and I'm not sure where that falls on the scummy/stupid scale so I dont want to pursue a lynch there.
You are wrong to tunneltown ExO, you idiot. Here's why he is being anti-town. That makes him scum or bad VT. You are bad VT for not knowing the correct strategy. Don't lose us the game! Also, see how he isn't actually responding to people that are talking to him? He's only obsessed with attacking Ray's case.
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I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion.
He's town. He's scumhunting poorly and taking flak for it -- I know you know because I see you have posted concerns about it -- but I think there's some merit to what he's saying.
>>>>> good, attentive town pretending to be cop <<<<<
TW is scum. ExO is scum or badVT. You're bad VT. NU is scum or badVT for N0 plan stuff. I'm VT pretending to be cop -- if you don't see this message now, you will when I flip town. By PoE, CR is the cop. I think he is pushing his read so hard because he redchecked NU.
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I do not like NU's overly defensive tone following the daypost when CR accused TW/NU of hiding behind poorly reasoned math. + Show Spoiler [#86] +On December 07 2016 10:01 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote: I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. I find it opportunistic that you call me and tw out on our lack of assumptions now that the medic was shanked rather than when we were actually discussing it ie I doubt that you would be reproaching us this if it was a VT that flipped today. Also, I dislike that you are entering the day with two targets you'd like to see lynched, especially since pretty much nothing happened N0, so I don't understand how you're ready to see myself or tw lynched already. Also, I don't think your justification to scum-read either of us is worthy of calling us lynch targets. Especially the 2nd paragraph in the above spoiler, it reads to me as less about NU being one of the targets and more about CR having more than one target, when they're being accused with same reasoning. Why would CR be inclined to single someone out in this scenario? To me, there's no reason for it and NU's post comes off as contrived to me.
>>>>> good, attentive town pretending to be cop <<<<<
you are worried that CR is tarring both TW and NU with the same brush, since you mindmeld NU on TW buddying and townlean NU. But I know CR is cop. If he claims N0 redcheck on TW, you must believe him.
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As you said, most of the TW material has been covered so I'll skip over it. Also, I think you're town.
My vote preferences are: 1-No-Lynch 2-TW 3-NU 4-ExO 5-CR 6-cake 7-me
>>>>> good, attentive town pretending to be cop <<<<<
look here, cakepie. if you can see this message, you will wonder why I don't townlean NU like you do. that's because I strongly believe CR N0 redchecked TW.
On December 08 2016 04:26 cakepie wrote: You've given me some insight into something that was of interest to me. Thanks. [...]
I got (some) of your secret message. Follow up questions...
On December 08 2016 04:41 Hopeless1der wrote: Re: CR - I wouldn't dismiss the notion out of hand, but its not high on my gutcheck rating. Being able to come out on blue-planning is a really safe way for mafia to seem invested without actually doing anything. That is only compounded by the fact that our doc got shot first, rendering a huge portion of N0 reasoning useless for the purposes of planning. CR is at least trying to use those posts to get reads.
>>>>> good, attentive town pretending to be cop <<<<<
I agree it's unlikely. but it's not impossible. Do you see that CR is trying to squeeze information out of koshi's death where no one else is doing so?
On December 08 2016 04:57 cakepie wrote: [*]H1 thanks for our brief exchange. Please work with the others while I'm asleep.
(to be continued)
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Proof I'm not making shit up about reading H1.
NU, remember this?
On December 09 2016 03:07 cakepie wrote: @NU re H1 The 'cute' (?) thing about H1 is that bit asking permission to sheep. When I deny permission, 124/126 pretty precisely hit upon topics I want people's opinions on, and things I might have missed. There's some level of "I agree with you on these things" coupled with "here's things you want or that might help you". That seems attentive if nothing else.
I was trying to tell you something about my interaction with H1.
On December 10 2016 02:04 cakepie wrote:I think ExO is derpscum with TW. I've been suspecting it since here. Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 04:57 cakepie wrote:- H1 thanks for our brief exchange.
- C-Ray, [...] If it's not a NU+TW scumteam, then which of the two is scum? And who of the remaining players is their scumbuddy?
- NU you already have several questions from me. Remember to filter ExO for me please.
I thank H1, this was for triggering me to look at ExO. I only had time to take a quick look at his filter before going to bed, but I saw enough to want to call others' attention to it. Reminding NU to filter ExO is a hint for the attentive -- I had not asked for it before, this is a fake reminder. I've been keeping an eye on TW+ExO interactions ever since.
There's also this.
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Let's continue to read what H1 has to say to us from the grave.
On December 09 2016 04:11 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 04:07 cakepie wrote:On December 09 2016 04:01 Hopeless1der wrote: All three of you are in that -null- zone. TW is *still* my priority lynch if a gun was held to my head. CR and ExO havent given much, you've given some to make me think you're not as scummy in general, especially compared to TW. Yet not enough to elevate NU above CR & Exo? stop asking me real questions..Fine my previous list was wrong. TW-ExO-CR-NU-cake-me
>>>>> town pretending to be cop <<<<<
I see that you don't understand that I'm only faking cop. Oh well.
+ Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 04:01 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 02:02 Tumblewood wrote: well I'm never going to convince you that you're scum. but understand that I am doing the best job I can finding scum using logic I consider to be good. TW, you think cakepie is scum? What the fucking fuck? Please respond to this with either "I think cakepie is scum" or "I do not think cakepie is scum". Thank you for your cooperation, Tumblewood. On December 09 2016 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote:ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler +turns out no one likes being lynched and because the line between "a regular amount" and "too much" is incredibly subjective Pick one and proceed. On December 09 2016 05:25 Hopeless1der wrote: Also to spell it out for you, a read cannot be simultaneously "not an argument" and "subjective". Those are mutually exclusive traits of an argument. On December 09 2016 04:47 Hopeless1der wrote: a little over 2 hours left today..TW if I dont get an answer in the next hour I'm voting you.
H1 is pretending to be a cop with a redcheck on TW by pushing hard for bad reasons. Consistent with his low activity ("more guarded than VT" bluetell) and other planted coptell.
On December 09 2016 06:44 Hopeless1der wrote: TW was not slammed when 2 people voted him, Either one of the voters (CR and cake) were scum OR TW is scum. Technically its possible that everyone involved is wrong, but fuck that noise, I'm calling TW scum, Good fucking game.
Cop, dont claim until you absolutely have to at end of Nightphase.
If TW claims cop, lynch that piece of garbage. I will not accept him claiming cop this game.
##Unvote##Vote: Tumblewood
I fully understand that this day is going to be a no lynch. I'm like 51/49 on lynhching TW today.
cop
I'm the cop. I have a redcheck on TW. If tomorrow turns out to be him cc me, I will use this as evidence/"crumb" for my N0 TW redcheck.
but he's pretending!
On December 09 2016 07:12 Hopeless1der wrote: k so at this point i have a sharp assumption that TW is scum. Any and every question from this point forward will be colored by the assumption that TW is scum. Thank you for your cooperation.
@Cop, my preference would be that you make your claim just before the end of night phase.
Besides that, feel free to tell me why anyone is scum
cop
I am the cop. TW is scum. Thanks! I will make my claim at EoN if you want to suggest who to check, let me know!
but he's pretending!
On December 11 2016 16:20 Chairman Ray wrote: cakepie you are a fucking HERO. If we end up winning this, it'll all be because of you. Eh, give H1 some credit. H1 saved you from scum. I saved you from NU. It was a collective effort. *high5 H1*
H1 succeeded in fooling the scumteam into killing him.
SHEEP H1. cake is town. Ray is cop. TW is scum. Lynch TW.
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On December 12 2016 04:54 NeverUnlucky wrote: That was a lot of stuff to read
thank you for hearing me out.
On December 12 2016 04:54 NeverUnlucky wrote: cakepie, why are you the one who's bringing sense to Ray's cop claim and not him? I've asked him a couple o' times to explain his claim and the best answer I got was from you re: 512
Because you were tunneled against him. If you haven't untunneled him yet, there is still danger of you picking the easy scum explanation. Needed me to help you untunnel first. Just as I posted before EoN to helped him untunnel you so that he could consider tw+Exo
On December 12 2016 04:54 NeverUnlucky wrote: Also, I get your points for scum-reading TW, but you don't address why his cop claim is fake which I think is the cornerstone of today's lynch. Unlike Ray, TW has a lot of points to show for to prove that he is cop. The answers to the questions he's given me make sense. Because TW's crumbs are faked. You guys love crumbs. You don't even evaluate that they may be faked. I can show you how the crumbs are designed to cover different scenarios.
On December 12 2016 04:54 NeverUnlucky wrote: Why is it null for me to choose the scum explanation but is mafia AI for TW and ExO?
NU -> CR null NU TW -> CR null TW Because CR's case is almost all bad.
ExO -> cakepie mafia ExO TW -> cakepie mafia TW Because - they use the explanation that I'm scum vs shitty parts of the case. (this is why I deliberately include shitty parts in my cases) - for the good/solid parts of the case, they go "oops, my mistake!" when scumslipped. They insist they are town who honestly made a mistake. Even if it is really bloody weird for town to make the mistake. Like TW going from mylo to D3. That's why I kept trying to remind you of it. It's really implausible for town to do this.
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On December 12 2016 05:02 NeverUnlucky wrote: And I would like to know, if you are so sure that TW is scum, why did you not vote for him?
I assume this is at me.
It is my sign that I am still here. If I vote, then I have gone to bed and won't be able to talk to you.
now that you're here and listening.
##Vote: tumblewood
I'm still here. Ask me anything. I will try to help you if you have trouble with anything.
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Waiting for NU to turn back to me or signal he's ready to look at fake crumbs.
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You cannot unvote after the lynch has been hammered, and please stop talking even if the hosts are not around.
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On December 12 2016 05:24 ExO_ wrote: Also that fake claim as town was just fucking horrible. It had no chance of baiting out an actual shot with how late it was, and it took far too long to rescind
Cakepie is really the scum MVP here
Accepted.
Holy shit NU great job.
Time to sleep.
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On December 12 2016 05:35 Chairman Ray wrote:To cakepies credit, he got very close to figuring out the game. I dont think anyone else would have considered NU would be scum after I flip, but cakepie got one thing perfectly correct: Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 16:33 cakepie wrote:On December 10 2016 15:36 Tumblewood wrote:
I'm not lynching you today, not with an absolute certainty on the board. but consider that, if you're town, then exo has to be scum and must be playing a pretty damn good game. Huh, you might actually care. You could lynch Ray today, and die tonight, and leave us to our devices. But you care (or are pretending to.) If cop!TW and town!cakepie, it's either ExO or NU with Ray. Don't discount NU with Ray. It's plausible that the following: - You were selected as D1 target based on N0, and Ray vs NU was a distancing move where Ray has to lynch you to flip you scum and scum NU by association. But we could copcheck you as town and Ray would safely disengage NU. Or we mislynch you and they win. In that sense, Ray v NU isn't even a bus. - EoD1 may have had NU waiting to hammer you if ExO or H1 voted. - your crumbs were found, and scum actually opted not to kill cop!TW because: - they get to kill conftown in H1 - you were scumread D1 by H1, me, and ?ExO? - with me going after TW+ExO, I'm the weakest link who will mislynch you - in any event, NU is sent into thread to vote you and get stupidcake to vote you and then Ray hammers - scum puzzles over my claim for a bit and then figures out I fucked up. Ray formulates his copclaim. - NU voting ray is ballsy, but they know I will tell NU to unvote. - This requires NU to be playing very well, but this is the scenario where he has Ray as a very experienced scumbuddy who can guide him. So you need to consider both ExO and NU.
Yes.
The point when the game was irretrievably lost was when TW shut the door on me. If he was more receptive, I maybe maybe maybe I could have sorted it out.
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On December 12 2016 05:41 cakepie wrote: The point when the game was irretrievably lost was when TW shut the door on me. If he was more receptive, I maybe maybe maybe I could have sorted it out.
Not blaming him or anything, mind you. We'd been TvT so hard and my dumb shenanigans didn't help him trust me at all.
Thanks to hosts and players.
I really really really must sleep now.
GG!
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Thanks to everyone who was concerned for me and my health. I know both hosts were concerned. <3 IIRC these guys said it in thread and I'll + Show Spoiler +extend good faith and believe that they were sincere about it despite the WIFOM value. (ow! ow! ok ok just joking dammit!) : Ray <3 Tumblewood <3 I haven't looked in QTs yet but preemptive <3 to any others who were (obs)cheering / (scum)respecting me there.
I still got the sniffles and had chills when I woke up earlier but I'm feeling better now. At least, I'm much better rested than I have been in many days. Part of it is not having to worry about the game anymore. Part of it is that I have absolutely no regrets for my loss. And part of it is finally using the drowsy meds and not the non-drowsy ones. =Þ
Thanks Acrofales and Artanis for standing up for me vs the salt of other town players. <3 I'm willing to take my fair share of the blame for our loss. But only Koshi + H1 are allowed to bop me on the head without any other qualification. I know TW and ExO were salty, so I'll overlook their heat-of-the-moment comments immediately after the game. + Show Spoiler +But if you guys actually bother to come back and learn from this game please realize that before you simply pile all the blame on me as "designated scapegoat", you need to take a good look at yourself in the mirror too.
(same as in-game, I know I have a tendency to sound like an arrogant prick... but really I'm not -- I've kept saying that I'm okay with swallowing my pride, I'm willing to take blame for the loss, etc. -- but as hosts tried to tell you guys, it's the salt doing the talking -- you're being unfair to me and not giving me the minimum respect I deserve.)
I'm going to do some more "take care of me" for a bit, but I'll come back later and do my personal postmortem for you all, so you can see where I was at and how I got us to where we ended up.
Doing a public postmortem is definitely going to expose a lot about me as a player, but thinking about it, I think that doing so will be good for both me and TL mafia community members who play with me in future. You'll see what I mean when I post my conclusions.
be back later!
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There we go again. I've gone and worded things poorly and you're mad at me again.
I wasn't going to criticize anyone at all, or try to push the blame around, or anything.
In hindsight it is very clear to everyone that I fucked up massively with that hard tunnel. Yes, I tunneled very deep when I should have easily won the game without anyone else's help. But there is a good (as in, plausible and valid) reason how I ended up being so bad. Simply put, I was completely burnt out -- and ONE SINGLE HUGE BAD DECISION then led on to the entire endgame fiasco. (The huge bad decision isn't even the fact that I fakeclaimed. In hindsight, the fakeclaim idea was okay, I just executed it extremely poorly.)
I was going to try to explain myself, because I know that the way that I handled the end was massively bad. And I know that you, for example, are very salty and angry at me for it -- because you were in the heat of the game.
I was going to try to show what happened, and how it happened. And hope that people like you would be able to understand, and forgive, while seeing also that there WAS something you could have done to stop me.
The reason I sound so arrogant to you again, is that with the clarity after the game, I can see that I wasn't doing as bad as I thought. I found back a lot of my confidence, whereas during the game I had experienced a very massive self esteem crisis. So I felt a lot better about myself, and saw that, at least until before I burnt out, I was actually doing really really well.
Let me try to fix my wording.
But if you guys actually bother to come back and learn from this game please realize that before you simply pile all the blame on me as "designated scapegoat", you need to take a good look at yourself in the mirror too. there were many many missed opportunities where you could have "got" what I was doing, understand that I was looking for help, and reach out to me with an open heart. Because I would have gratefully taken your hand and we could have won from there incredibly easily
Doing a public postmortem is definitely going to expose a lot about me as a player, but thinking about it, I think that doing so will be good for both me and TL mafia community members who play with me in future. You'll see what I mean when I post my conclusions.
forget about this until later. then come back and read it again.
Maybe it's be better if Ray / NU explain to the town guys what happened and why the endgame dragged out so long and made everyone so fucking angry (especially my fake bravado. cuz they're still fucking mad as hell.).
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The hosts will also be able to vouch for me. Just please be willing to hear me out when I do post it.
Looks like I'm not going to be able to do the full breakdown it as soon as I'd thought, though. My emotional state clearly still isn't at the right place. #589 was due to my immense relief+euphoria so I sounded overconfident but now I'm back down to depressed again, because I've just made ExO mad again.
the summary, for now:
I've focused too much on applying the lessons from my last game and went full tryhard.
It worked really well and I gained a lot of confidence because I sense that I was doing the right thing and my play was improving tremendously.
But being this invested ended up being incredibly harmful to my own physical, mental and emotional well being.
I suffered a complete mental breakdown and emotional meltdown, on top of my already failing health. I recognized this and left the thread. I even apologized to the hosts and asked to be modkilled and banlisted. But they urged me to try, because WE WERE THIS FUCKING CLOSE! So I tried. Except I wasn't really in a state to go on anymore.
At least while I was "fully functional", I was doing really well. And even when I wasn't, I still showed flashes of brilliance, and scum still found me enough of a threat that they prolonged the game, because they had to play to their wincon as well. (and prolonged my suffering. T_T)
scum team and hosts, please help me convince the angry town mob that I'm really sincere about this.
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On December 12 2016 19:33 ExO_ wrote: Cakepie I don't know you IRL, but I'm certainly not mad at you. I'm very passionate about games, and very competitive. and I hate losing. I would not want anything I'm saying here to affect you in your personal life though, certainly don't get depressed about this. I talk to you the way I do not to make you feel bad or down, but because I get invested in what I do.
But for me this is just a game. I wouldn't want this to affect your personal life. So please cheer up, I'll try to be a bit more careful with my words On December 12 2016 19:42 ExO_ wrote: Also unlike the hosts, I wasn't really aware of what was happening with your physical/mental health. You brought it up a few times in the thread but I didn't really understand the extent to which it was affecting you. Part of that is for most of the time I thought you were on the scum team and not meaning it. I really hope you get better soon.
Again I didn't mean to cause you any IRL distress. I'm apologize if my words affected you in that way <3 <3 <3 <3 <3
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On December 12 2016 20:58 Acrofales wrote: WoT Eh... close but not quite.
I am going to have to tell my story when I'm feeling up to it. Hosts and scum kinda know what I'm going through from an outside perspective. But they don't have access to the inside of my head.
After I tell my side of the story, you'll all finally understand. Nobody was "BAD" this game. + Show Spoiler +I'm going to have to call TW lazy, though. But "lazy" is an fair and objective criticism of him in view of the punishing format of this game. This is not ad hom "you are bad and should feel bad" toxicty. I promise. No. bad cakepie. don't do this. don't shift blame around.
For me, this game was both AMAZING and a GREAT TRAGEDY all at once. I hope everyone will see it the same way eventually.
On December 12 2016 20:58 Acrofales wrote: Unfortunately as a host, there is very little one can do: the players need to play the game, and there was only one point where things threatened to cross a line, but you guys self-corrected. This is no coincidence. NU and I self-corrected because this was one of the biggest things he admitted that he needed to fix after NSM24. I was very glad that he showed me through his actions that he had learned that lesson. I reciprocated immediately, found my reason for triggering, and made good with him.
On December 12 2016 20:58 Acrofales wrote: I'm just glad cakepie is now feeling better and we didn't make a big mistake not modkilling him when he requested it. It took me three passes of this sentence to figure out what you were saying! <3 <3 <3 <3 <3
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On December 12 2016 21:37 ExO_ wrote: He saw the same things I did, but he was in a tunnel that I don't think I could've found a way to pull him out of. Two unfortunate VT passing like ships in the night.
+ Show Spoiler [ignore for now] +I was right that there were "2 groups of people playing 2 different games" it's just CP, H1, CR, NU TW, ExO, NU
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On December 12 2016 07:26 Chairman Ray wrote: NU eventually made the right call of Fuck it, im just gonna straight up ask cakepie to vote first.
[still haven't looked at QTs don't want to "contaminate" my head with extra info before postmortem] @CR -- NU may have never played with me before, but he has -- consciously or unconsciously -- really really good meta on me from NSM24. I just wish he had his "fuck it" realization sooner and put me out of my misery.
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My body is not ready, but my mind and emotional state are getting towards okay enough now I think.
I am going write this message to all hosts, players, obs. I am going to try to be careful with my words. And not to offend anyone.
There is a lot of misunderstanding going on in this game, and in this postgame. Because nobody has access to the inside of cakepie's head.
note: I still haven't read any qts!
@tw and exo.
You're really mad at me because you think I'm an idiot and a bad player for throwing the game and working my ass off to help scum. On top of that, from your POV you find me to be a huge arrogant snob who goes around preaching to people how to apply mafia fundamentals while being completely tunneled and obviously unable to use those same fundamentals properly myself. But I pinky swear this is not the case. Remember when I "burn out" and quit out of the thread at one point because I refuse to lose sleep any more? Everything after that. I was legitimately trying to do something to help town. But I was really burnt out. So I was playing suboptimally and rubbed you guys the wrong way. Sorry for that, I can see why now, in the clarity of postgame.
Please have good faith and believe that I'm not trying to belittle anyone. And that I was always trying my best, fighting through my illness and fatigue, to play to town wincon. You'll understand when I explain.
@scumteam
For a long time you struggled against what you perceived as a very dangerous foe. You showed me a lot of respect. I thank you for that.
CR mentioned that for scum, your final solution was that you "overestimated" me. your final solution is that "cakepie isn't lying about being ill etc in order to fuck with us. he is really burnt out and the simple solution is that he is not thinking clearly and tunneling hard". but that's not the whole story.
@hosts
see what I said to scumteam. I think you guys mostly arrived at that conclusion as well, except you had ogi so you knew I was in fact legit superburnout and in a very very dark place.
@NU
See what I said to tw+exo above about the fact I'm not trying to belittle anyone. I was doing something... poorly. the same goes for you. you might have perceived during the game that I'm a snob who kept behaving like you were a really shit VT. Please trust me when i say that in the D2, I was absolutely not underestimating you in any way. I'll honestly say that I did in underestimate you in the early game. And you nearly fooled me!
I've already expressed my great respect for you by PM.
In the postgame, I also came across as a snob, especially #589. I tried to explain that I sound like a snob due to my "immense relief+euphoria" (#594) that #593: I wasn't doing as bad as I thought. I found back a lot of my confidence, whereas during the game I had experienced a very massive self esteem crisis. So I felt a lot better about myself, and saw that, at least until before I burnt out, I was actually doing really really well. This part is truth.
Also in #593: In hindsight it is very clear to everyone that I fucked up massively with that hard tunnel. Yes, I tunneled very deep when I should have easily won the game without anyone else's help. This part is a lie. I was fake tunnelling (almost) all the time. Until my brain just gradually broke apart inside the incredible TvT echo chamber that the scumteam engineered for us. They had so much respect for my play and saw me as such a big threat that they had to do it this way. (prolonging my suffering T_T)
I was just telling you guys what you wanted to hear so that you would calm down and stop being so mad at me. Because I was still not completely thinking straight and emotionally stable, and I realized that at that time I simply couldn't properly articulate what I really needed to convey to you. So I gave you the "easy answer" that you wanted. I'm sorry guys for lying, guys!
The real reason for my "immense relief+euphoria" is that I had a bunch of personal side goals for this game. So not only relieved at the fact that my burnout was the biggest contributing factor for my immense throw (not due to tunneling!) but I was also very very proud of myself for hitting all my personal goals. I will share that with you if you will let me.
I'm not a hypocrite. I'm not the type to call people bad while playing badly myself. I'm self aware enough for that. In #600 I point out that NU and I both autocorrecting for anger was not a mistake. For NU, this should be proof that I have that self awareness, and am not hypocritical. In the newbie game I scolded you for toxicity. I made a big lecture about "toxic" vs "anger in the heat of the moment". And we did good to stop ourselves where we did and cool off. =) *hi5*
Anyhow, during the game many people just assumed that due to what I was doing D2, I must be either a - hypocritical arrogant asshole noob VT or - scum. Town's PoV Occam's razor during game: scum. Postgame: this bloody fucking asshole noobcake.
Because that's what they see from their PoV. =((((
I'm not a snob who thinks I'm better than all of you. I swear. Coming into this game I knew that my NSM8 was utter shit.
edit note: there used to be a big section here. For those who saw that section -- I entrusted the decision to Acro. He decided that I'm being overdramatic. So. we are not locking the thread after all, there is no need to spoiler all your postgame discussion.
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+ Show Spoiler +
I need to get away from this forum for a couple of days and clear my head.
Thanks Acro for your sensitivity.
See you guys later.
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I'm back. Phew. I'm okay now.
I'll work on the blog thing episodically rather than all at once I think.
So much work.
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