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4492 Posts
I don't feel like writing the same stuff all over again, so...
On May 20 2009 10:28 Mynock wrote:
This is just brilliant. And I thought the previous Town was dumb.
BC, you're fishy as fuck. You know, syringes and Showtime!... What? Google showtime and go to the third link on the 2nd Google hit (oh, Google suggest a correction, so press that obv) and scroll down to the third picture from the left and you'll see a syringe in the background? I didn't even bother looking up any of that. You know what the whole BLOODY ordeal reminded me of? A BLOODY COBBLER if anything. But I don't rely on riddles to try to find any connections here. I just look at how you post and what you do. And you're trying to post retarded links out of nowhere. L follows suit because he has a Pardoner fetish and has to somehow deal with his raging hard-on which he had ever since the elections started (has L ever made a post where the word "pardon" appears less than 38 times?)
I found a flaw in my arguments. I'm being too calm and focused here. I have to change that, because people won't understand my points otherwise. I have to do it like Ace, so here goes...
FUCKING LOOK AT VER IDIOTS! What's he doing now? SHIT ALL. The same thing he did last game when he was mafia as well. If we don't lynch Ver tonight I'm gonna fucking PM EVERY GODDAMN Townie after the game, telling them how THEY SUCK and should never ever play a game of Mafia again. 20 PMS AT LEAST! Maybe more...
IF YOU DARE GET DIVERTED FROM YOUR FUCKING MAFIA MAYOR JUST LIKE YOU DID LAST GAME, I WILL FUCKING GO TO YOUR HOUSE AND MURDER YOU!
So, let me get this clear now... Townies vote Ver. If you're a Townie you know you vote Ver. If you're scum, or a paranoid delusional maniac with a Pardoner-fetish you vote whatever else comes to your mind, and we'll deal with that later.
IF VER ISNT MAFIA (or traitor), LYNCH ME IMMEDIATELY. If I'm wrong on this one, call me stupid, call me retarded, call me whatever, I'll deserve it.
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Sydney2287 Posts
Earlier today I agreed to your plan L, however I've spent a lot of time thinking about it and I think you're getting so caught up in min-maxing the potential town deaths/kills in the first few days that your forcing a perception of mafia behaviours onto people when really there is nothing there. Take for example your argument about Ace working with Mynock/Ver. Most of your observations here work from the basis of the one quote where he supports their electoral platforms. This does not equal working together with them. It's like how nemy had a pm conversation with incognito. It doesn't mean we thought Nemy was a dt, it meant we thought he'd had a pm conversation with incognito. The same logic applies here. Just because Ace supported their electoral platforms over other candidates doesn't mean that he was working with them, it simply meant he supported their electoral platforms.
You also mention the vote train on Ace signifying Ace's guilt. To use your own (valid) arguments from earlier, this is similar to the pardoner case. Just because a mafia pardoner pardons a person, doesn't make the person mafia. Just because mafia voters vote for a mayor, doesn't make that person mafia. I'm sure you can work out the reasons why this is a potentially viable tactic, the discussion we are having now is proof of that. And yet you keep ignoring this, I'm not the first one to bring this up, Ace has already brought it up. You simply repeat the almost-mantra that you've got "you have dodgy voters, you must be mafia".
Taking those arguments out, removes most of the suspicion you've been building up against Ace, almost forcing the argument. Ace has made the point I just made multiple times and each time you ignore it, trying to force the issue.
I sent you a pm earlier, and I said I'd post it if Ace exhibited a certain behaviour.
Original Message:
I too feel that the argument between Ace and Ver back during the election was terribly contrived.
I do want to see Ace killed tonight (as in, before I agreed to your plan in the thread), part of the reasoning behind my posts in the thread was that I wanted to see how Ace responded to my defense of him, and your accusation. He just sat back, which to me indicates more that he's mafia, as they are usually willing to let Town do their work for them (in this case me arguing for him). I'm pretty confident now I've agreed to the plan you're proposing, we're going to see Ace come rocking into the thread "What the fuck is wrong with the town" etc.
If he does, I'm going to post this pm btw.
You might notice that I didn't post the pm and call Ace out as mafia. His defence of your accusations were rational and definitely fit the defence of somebody out to help the town, whereas your accusations kept trying to put words in Ace's mouth (the working with from support deal which I just covered for example).
On top of all this, let's have a look at the people voting for Ace. We've got nemy, our traitor/dt/mafia, we've got Plexa, our resident "vote and never post" mafia, and we've got dreamflower, who by your own reasoning you believe is mafia. To take your own advice from earlier in the thread, step back and be objective. If you were mafia, what would you do in the situation where the town is lynching an innocent? You'd go along with it, that's what I'd do, and what mafia have been doing in every game.
These all combined to make me believe Ace has a much, much lower chance of being mafia than my initial 50%. Which brings us to your plan of lynching Ace first to min/max our deaths/kills/wasted lynches w/e. It only matters to kill Ace if we think he is mafia. Since it's getting less and less likely that this is the case, we return to lynching Ver, someone we can all agree is exhibiting the most obvious mafia behaviour in this game (Maybe 2nd to Plexa).
TLDR
L's plan is based on the concept that our pardoner is mafia
I have shown L's arguments regarding Ace being mafia to be incredibly forced. This could be either because he is a townie who doesn't want to admit he is wrong, or because he is mafia.
Ver is much, much more suspicious than Ace
We don't want to repeat the mistakes of last game
Lynch Ver
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L's plan defends against the POSSIBILITY that our pardoner is mafia.
I have stated repeatedly that a decent amount of suspicion is all that's required in order for this plan to be the best possible plan. I don't know that Ace is mafia. I don't know that Ver is mafia. I don't know how the fuck Mynock fits into the jigsaw puzzle.
What I do know is that Ver is obviously under suspicion and so is Ace. Ace's defence was more emotional than rational and made attempts to ignore valid criticisms of his past actions by trying to confuse the issues. Trying to create a difference between supporting and 'working with' when there are posts with ace specifically chatting cordially addressed to Mynock, for instance.
I don't need Ace OR Ver to be 100% confirmed mafia in my mind because the main points are as follows.
My first premise is that both Ace AND Ver were elected under very odd circumstances: Ace exhibited a mass of vote switching. Certain players switched their vote up to 3 times. Ver similarly had an early bandwagon and was largely silent the entire time. This doesn't mean they are mafia, but if they ARE mafia, their vote lists are VERY likely to contain mafia members. This has been the story of every mafia game in which a mafia member is elected into public office. When you say "mafia could have voted for someone innocent" I'm saying "that's irrelevant".
My second premise is that with respect to the BG slaughter, we can't point towards Ver over Ace or Ace over Ver. Both ran on equivilant platforms. Both stressed their experience and skill. Both have added near nothing in terms of analysis when it was not to directly defend themselves. Why would I assume that BGs claimed to Ver instead of Ace? Ace was more active, for one, but Ver admits he has received a lot of PMs.
My third premise is that the most important source of information in this game are the undisputable voting lists. If either are discovered to be mafia, their lists become prime targets for looking for future targets. And when I say "prime" targets, I mean PRIME.
My fourth premise is that we cannot lynch Ace as well as another target during a double lynch. The explanation for this has been repeated ad nauseum.
My fifth premise is the final one. It is that we should lynch as soon as possible in order to remove killing power to extend our town's lifespan. This is the most important premise.
Simple version:
Ace and Ver are fishy.
There is likely a mafia in office (universally accepted)
If there is, finding out which is mafia will give us solid leads on other mafia
We need to act as quickly as possible
The quickest way is to deal with Ace prior to Ver. If Vig wants to help out, awesome.
Now, do I assume Ace is mafia? No. I say that we need to kill Ace AND Ver in order to unravel the confusion we've had in the first two days and discover 1) the reason for the odd voting patterns 2) the reason for the BG slaughter. Since I want to get lynches on the table as fast as possible, I cannot let Ace be the second lynch. If Ver was pardoner, I would select him first. It has nothing to do with the magnitude of the suspicion. It simply enables double lynching.
Bockit. I've made this exact point to you before. If you want to fix the mistakes of the last game, you can look at my analysis of how town failed during the last game. One of my points is directly there: Town didn't start doubles early enough. Additionally, you state that Ace's recent actions seem to show that he's innocent. Really? I highly disagree.
You judge, based on the action of other players stating that they are suspicious and voted for Ace, that Ace is less likely to be guilty. Wrong. the majority of mafia will bail on what they consider an outted mafia. One or two will hang on to provide consistency to their views, but the vast majority will plant red herrings. I explained this before when noting that Ace and Ver could both be mafia and they could be attempting to red herring each other into innocence on the lynch of one. This is the way mafia played last game, and it was a conscious choice. We deliberately set up a net of accusations and counter accusations so that if one of us was found, our post content could not be used to directly figure someone else out.
Most obvious example of that? Bockit's game opening PMs talking about JeeJee, who I, as mafia, knowingly defended and got out of the lynch. If you followed Bockit's red herring, an innocent would die who would make a mafia look innocent. DOUBLE BONUS. The same is obviously being played here.
For Mynock:
IF YOU DARE GET DIVERTED FROM YOUR FUCKING MAFIA MAYOR JUST LIKE YOU DID LAST GAME, I WILL FUCKING GO TO YOUR HOUSE AND MURDER YOU! I am 100% in favor of killing Ver. That's the entire point of doing this. If he's Vigilante'd this night after Ace is killed, all the better.
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Haha, wait, you were on our team last game and were the first instance of red herring dropping. Why would you ignore that in your analysis?
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4492 Posts
L, you ignore behaviour almost completely. No, mechanical doesn't work. It's stupid and convoluted. We're not here to lynch half the Town. It's Mafia's job to kill innocents, we must concentrate on killing Mafia. At the same time, we have to minimize collateral damage. There are prime suspects right now, above Ace, and I'd rather not lose Ace just yet.
The solution is so fucking simple: Lynch Ver. If he's innocent, we can Vigi Ace easily (and you don't even have to endure another Pardoner nightmare again, hey!). If he's Mafia, we go after other prime Mafia suspects (like Plexa and co.)
Simple stuff, but requires a bit of logical thinking before. As opposed to convoluted paranoid stuff with no thinking behind it (or rather overthinking certain stuff, completely ignoring other).
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Sydney2287 Posts
I just feel the suspicion factor of Ace isn't anywhere near as high as you're saying it is. Going through your premises:
Premise 1: I have no issue with this. Essentially it's saying, if Ace / Ver are mafia, we gain lots of information about their voters. As a premise, that's true. How we work from it I think is where we are disagreeing. You are saying we should kill both Ace and Ver. I'm willing to give Ace the benefit of the doubt based on my observations of his behaviour. If we lynch a candidate and they're innocent we get little in terms of information from the votelist (Your red herrings point). I'm at this stage willing to say I think Ace is *more likely* to be innocent than guilty. Enough so that I'd rather not lynch him over Ver tonight.
Premise 2: I think this is irrelevant as I still haven't seen anything to convince me that any of the bgs claimed to anyone. Everyone knows by now the perils of doing so. They'd gain absolutely nothing out of doing so, it makes no sense.
Premise 3: Same as premise 1. I agree with the premise. It only comes into play if they flip red. Again, I'm not sure enough Ace is red to be putting our hit on him at the moment. Give me better arguments than "he had a dodgy voting pattern behind him" (easily a potential red herring), or "he was working with mynock and ver", give me solidish clues (Hardware one I'm not a fan of). If you can give me solid evidence that he is mafia, then sure. Otherwise I'm inclined to disagree on the actions we should take based on this premise.
Premise 4: Yes, this is true, again, if he is red. As you say, a lot of people accept that there is a red in office. Most people are pretty sure it's Ver. Not many are agreeing with you at this stage that it's Ace. Yes it's possible they are both mafia.
Premise 5: This is true. I'm going to run some numbers, this is how I see it.
If we lynch Ace and he is green, we've essentially wasted 1 kp of our total x kp. We traded 1 kp for 1 non-mafia
If we lynch Ace and he flips red, our kp is unchanged. We've successfully traded 1 kp for 1 mafia.
If we don't lynch Ace and he is green, our kp is unchanged.
If we don't lynch Ace and he is red. He pardons someone as he dies on a double lynch and we lose 1 kp of our total x kp (it was pardoned in the only circumstance that a mafia pardoner is ever really going to use his power with a negative effect on the town, double lynch with him included).
To me it looks like we end up even on both ways. It's possible mafia get 1 extra hit on us if when the time a mafia pardoner gets killed in a double lynch of which the other suspect is a mafia, and we need to kill both to knock their kp down a notch. Do you see how obscure this situation is?
There is no need to lynch Ace now. Vote to lynch Ver
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Sydney2287 Posts
On May 20 2009 21:57 L wrote:
Haha, wait, you were on our team last game and were the first instance of red herring dropping. Why would you ignore that in your analysis?
The red herring dropping was part of my analysis. It works both ways. You can implicate and remove suspicion with red herring dropping. I'm saying that the people who voted suspiciously for Ace could very likely have been red herring dropping. That there was suspicious activity behind Ace's vote train is not a reason to lynch Ace. It is a reason to look at the vote train if he dies and flips red.
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4492 Posts
Ver's going to come, pack his votes onto Ace, and then later laugh at Town's collective stupidity.
You guys will be had, once again.
Unless the likes of Showtime! and Caller stop acting to hurt the Town every step of the lynching, this vote will be controlled by Mafia. Oh shi~! That's exactly what they want, you say!?
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On May 20 2009 22:18 Mynock wrote:
L, you ignore behaviour almost completely. No, mechanical doesn't work. It's stupid and convoluted. We're not here to lynch half the Town. It's Mafia's job to kill innocents, we must concentrate on killing Mafia. At the same time, we have to minimize collateral damage. There are prime suspects right now, above Ace, and I'd rather not lose Ace just yet.
The solution is so fucking simple: Lynch Ver. If he's innocent, we can Vigi Ace easily (and you don't even have to endure another Pardoner nightmare again, hey!). If he's Mafia, we go after other prime Mafia suspects (like Plexa and co.)
Simple stuff, but requires a bit of logical thinking before. As opposed to convoluted paranoid stuff with no thinking behind it (or rather overthinking certain stuff, completely ignoring other).
woah woah woah
ver being innocent or mafia tells you absolutely nothing about the alliance of Ace. If ver flips red, in no way should you suddenly start trusting Ace more than you did before.
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I'm lynching Ver. I don't see at all why so many people think Ace is dirty this game (especially when compared with Ver's inactivity) and I do not agree with lynching him just to be safe at the next vote.
As for lynching Dreamflower, while both BC and I came up with (differing) sets of clues pointing to her, I feel it would be more sensible to kill off Ver (who I believe is red) based on clues/behavior rather than just Dreamflower off of clues alone.
And would you mind telling me exactly why you voted for me, Caller? You don't have to, I'm really just curious. :p
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Good posts by Mynock and Bockit, as the rage post I was about to make has been made by them in a calmer matter. The stupidity of this plan just begs the question of how any sane person can even go for it.
L's plan is really just a "lets get rid of everyone" plan, with me as the top dog just because I might Pardon someone. What L fails to understand is that Ver has shown such mafiaish behavior, and I haven't (even though he keeps making shit up) that it's obvious who needs to die. Once I die (because mafia will surely kill me tonight) you'll lose your Pardons and one of your voices of reason.
Then L has a big fucking flaw in his argument: The vote lists.
What exactly are they going to tell you? If you want to know the reason people voted for me - JUST ASK THEM. If I was to flip red and you looked at my votes what can you possibly determine? That most of the people on there are Mafia? - WRONG. You couldn't because I caught a surge after I made a platform post to get elected, hence you'd be having a very difficult time in knowing if those voters are legit townies who liked the post or mafia majority.
And when I flip green then what? Or how are you going to explain how Ver got his votes when he flips red/traitor? Go ahead, what are you going to do? Telling the town "we'll just look at the voters list" after I'm dead means shit.
Like I said from the very beginning, the one plan that will get us where we need to be: look at the people who did not get elected that ran for Mayor, and look at nemy. In fact even if you want to believe nemy is legit, look at all the people that were involved in the arguments FOR nemy being a legit DT. Don't drop the fucking ball on this one.
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oh and Caller made a finally reasonable post too, he just needs to stop being indecisive and VOTE the right way ^_^
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On May 21 2009 01:37 MTF wrote:
I'm lynching Ver. I don't see at all why so many people think Ace is dirty this game (especially when compared with Ver's inactivity) and I do not agree with lynching him just to be safe at the next vote.
As for lynching Dreamflower, while both BC and I came up with (differing) sets of clues pointing to her, I feel it would be more sensible to kill off Ver (who I believe is red) based on clues/behavior rather than just Dreamflower off of clues alone.
And would you mind telling me exactly why you voted for me, Caller? You don't have to, I'm really just curious. :p
The Devil made me do it.
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On May 20 2009 22:43 Bockit wrote:
I just feel the suspicion factor of Ace isn't anywhere near as high as you're saying it is. Going through your premises:
Premise 1: I have no issue with this. Essentially it's saying, if Ace / Ver are mafia, we gain lots of information about their voters. As a premise, that's true. How we work from it I think is where we are disagreeing. You are saying we should kill both Ace and Ver. I'm willing to give Ace the benefit of the doubt based on my observations of his behaviour. If we lynch a candidate and they're innocent we get little in terms of information from the votelist (Your red herrings point). I'm at this stage willing to say I think Ace is *more likely* to be innocent than guilty. Enough so that I'd rather not lynch him over Ver tonight.
Premise 2: I think this is irrelevant as I still haven't seen anything to convince me that any of the bgs claimed to anyone. Everyone knows by now the perils of doing so. They'd gain absolutely nothing out of doing so, it makes no sense.
Premise 3: Same as premise 1. I agree with the premise. It only comes into play if they flip red. Again, I'm not sure enough Ace is red to be putting our hit on him at the moment. Give me better arguments than "he had a dodgy voting pattern behind him" (easily a potential red herring), or "he was working with mynock and ver", give me solidish clues (Hardware one I'm not a fan of). If you can give me solid evidence that he is mafia, then sure. Otherwise I'm inclined to disagree on the actions we should take based on this premise.
Premise 4: Yes, this is true, again, if he is red. As you say, a lot of people accept that there is a red in office. Most people are pretty sure it's Ver. Not many are agreeing with you at this stage that it's Ace. Yes it's possible they are both mafia.
Premise 5: This is true. I'm going to run some numbers, this is how I see it.
If we lynch Ace and he is green, we've essentially wasted 1 kp of our total x kp. We traded 1 kp for 1 non-mafia
If we lynch Ace and he flips red, our kp is unchanged. We've successfully traded 1 kp for 1 mafia.
If we don't lynch Ace and he is green, our kp is unchanged.
If we don't lynch Ace and he is red. He pardons someone as he dies on a double lynch and we lose 1 kp of our total x kp (it was pardoned in the only circumstance that a mafia pardoner is ever really going to use his power with a negative effect on the town, double lynch with him included).
To me it looks like we end up even on both ways. It's possible mafia get 1 extra hit on us if when the time a mafia pardoner gets killed in a double lynch of which the other suspect is a mafia, and we need to kill both to knock their kp down a notch. Do you see how obscure this situation is?
There is no need to lynch Ace now. Vote to lynch Ver
The problem with your analysis is that you:
1) Ignore when double lynches are used. Timing is important. You admit this.
2) Somehow assume hitting a red and not hitting a green are equivilant.
3) Ignore the amount of information we gain by being able to verify Ace's side.
I'd also say that you significantly underestimate how suspicious Ace is. I've given my reasons, I understand you feel differently. That's fine. I suggest you read a number of his posts that I've pointed out as inconsistent and review his posting history during the first day. There's quite a bit pointing towards him.
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On May 20 2009 22:18 Mynock wrote:
L, you ignore behaviour almost completely. No, mechanical doesn't work. It's stupid and convoluted. We're not here to lynch half the Town. It's Mafia's job to kill innocents, we must concentrate on killing Mafia. At the same time, we have to minimize collateral damage. There are prime suspects right now, above Ace, and I'd rather not lose Ace just yet.
The solution is so fucking simple: Lynch Ver. If he's innocent, we can Vigi Ace easily (and you don't even have to endure another Pardoner nightmare again, hey!). If he's Mafia, we go after other prime Mafia suspects (like Plexa and co.)
Simple stuff, but requires a bit of logical thinking before. As opposed to convoluted paranoid stuff with no thinking behind it (or rather overthinking certain stuff, completely ignoring other).
As fusion notes, if Ver is innocent or guilty has nearly zero impact on how innocent or guilty we should evaluate Ace's suspicion level.
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Ok L since your "logic" just begs the question:
Once I'm dead and I flip green what does that tell you? Who looks guilty or innocent by my death?
Answer this please.
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On May 21 2009 01:42 Ace wrote:
Good posts by Mynock and Bockit, as the rage post I was about to make has been made by them in a calmer matter. The stupidity of this plan just begs the question of how any sane person can even go for it.
L's plan is really just a "lets get rid of everyone" plan, with me as the top dog just because I might Pardon someone. What L fails to understand is that Ver has shown such mafiaish behavior, and I haven't (even though he keeps making shit up) that it's obvious who needs to die. Once I die (because mafia will surely kill me tonight) you'll lose your Pardons and one of your voices of reason.
Then L has a big fucking flaw in his argument: The vote lists.
What exactly are they going to tell you? If you want to know the reason people voted for me - JUST ASK THEM. If I was to flip red and you looked at my votes what can you possibly determine? That most of the people on there are Mafia? - WRONG. You couldn't because I caught a surge after I made a platform post to get elected, hence you'd be having a very difficult time in knowing if those voters are legit townies who liked the post or mafia majority.
And when I flip green then what? Or how are you going to explain how Ver got his votes when he flips red/traitor? Go ahead, what are you going to do? Telling the town "we'll just look at the voters list" after I'm dead means shit.
Like I said from the very beginning, the one plan that will get us where we need to be: look at the people who did not get elected that ran for Mayor, and look at nemy. In fact even if you want to believe nemy is legit, look at all the people that were involved in the arguments FOR nemy being a legit DT. Don't drop the fucking ball on this one.
First off: You've shown a massive amount of suspicious behavior.
Second: Pardon can ONLY hurt town. A number of people who are currently defending you admitted that in the past. Even you dropped the subject when I completely dismantled your shit over it earlier.
I've already explained how the votelists and mafia being voted into office work. Mafia will not suddenly say "I voted for Ace because he's red like me". We can't ASK people why they voted for you. The standard answer will be
1) Didn't like nemY
2) Liked Ace
ZERO information from that.
Figuring out your side tells us a huge amount about the people who voted for you because there's something they can't contest. If you're red, they can't argue against that. If you're green, they can't argue against that.
Ace, look at the vote list for you. Everyone switched votes besides for one person, and you're telling me that we aren't going to find out fuck all if we kill you.
Let me ask something to everyone here:
What if Ace AND Ver are mafia? What then?
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On May 21 2009 02:07 Ace wrote:
Ok L since your "logic" just begs the question:
Once I'm dead and I flip green what does that tell you? Who looks guilty or innocent by my death?
Answer this please.
Depends on how Ver/x flips as well. What happens if you flip red, ace? What happens to that train of mafia that voteswung you?
Someone's afraid.
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On May 20 2009 13:29 HeavOnEarth wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 11:10 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
well this is sweet, I am on page 38! See you all in 1-2 hours of post reading. But I figure to be safe, vote lynch Ace. wut
I gots distracted by seckz I am on page 55 now.
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1.) I have not shown suspicious behavior. That's just you trying to convince yourself you need a reason to lynch me. Look at how many people have said I haven't even done anything wrong. Keep telling yourself that though.
2.) Pardons can HELP the town. How many times have I already shown you that I've ALWAYS caught the bandwagoned townie and stuck up for them? Plenty. So don't try that bullshit.
3.) YOU GET ZERO INFORMATION FROM MY DEATH
what are you going to do? What "side" do I have? Who can you say I'm working with? Go ahead, answer these questions. No matter what color I flip you find nothing out because there is no one in the entire game I'm associated with. I've said this countless times and you keep ignoring it. Look at my vote list all you want - it all happened after my platform post. Hence, you can't honestly say it's pure townie or majority mafia and you keep ignoring this point.
What if Ace and Ver are Mafia? Holy shit! yes what if we BOTH are Mafia!
Then it made perfect sense to kill the 2 people protecting us from Vigis and draw suspicion on ourselves!
LOL thats just STUPID. L - your getting desperate. Just stop.
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EPT
