EPTAlternatively, /replace
[M][N]Oil Futures Mafia
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Alternatively, /replace | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
 In-game excuse, I'm going to be a bit lazy this game. Also more likely to be active late evening (PDT). | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 29 2020 04:36 Kurumi wrote: Out of curiosity, how many of the people in this game have you played with before?Hi guys, it's been a while. Hope my memory and skills can still be used for some meta shenanigans. | ||
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Trfel
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And if so, what (if anything) do you make of them? | ||
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Trfel
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On April 29 2020 04:50 Vivax wrote: I know he's played a bunch before, I've seen him around a bit before (forget where).He played with me and rayn for sure. Kurumi is a vet, and a sneaky ass mafia player. The reason I ask is that he said he will be trying to make some meta reads, I'm curious if that's going to be based on previous game experience or if he intends on filter diving past games of unfamiliar players or what. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 29 2020 05:20 Kurumi wrote: Fair enough, I didn't realize it was that many players. Thanks for explaining!The only people I believe I have not played with are Shockeyy, Jockmcplop and Grackaroni. I believe we have played together (maybe even on a scum team?), I have played lots with rayn, Vivax, Koshi, Chezinu and probably Alakaslam could go into that category as well. So Fecalfeast, Trfel (you) and GlowingBear are people I should've played already but my meta judgement would be seriously impractical here. I agree Vivax! Actually, if I were in a self-deprecating mood I'd probably state outright that I don't feel meta-competent right now. On April 29 2020 05:26 GlowingBear wrote: You hosted last game, where I was lazy and town?No Trfel, you're either effortful or mafia. Come to think of it, GlowingBear, what do you think about Vivax's alignment? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 29 2020 07:13 raynpelikoneet wrote: Hopefully, that's kinda on you though Hi Trfel can we be friends this game? On April 29 2020 07:26 Kurumi wrote: Because your post didn't make sense to me.So why were you asking me about how I'm going to play this game, exactly? Claiming you planned on doing a lot of meta reads doesn't make sense if you're unfamiliar with many/most of the players in the game, which I thought you were. Therefore, I was asking to try and learn more about what you meant by that. It makes more sense now that you said you were just faking confidence. It just feels a bit weird for me for town to come into the thread right at the start of day 1 and say "I'm gonna meta read everyone like crazy," especially if they don't know everyone. But it makes more sense now that you've clarified it. On April 29 2020 09:45 Alakaslam wrote: Alakaslam, do you really care what people think of you when you're mafia?Meh, NAI but also unnecessary. Just kinda bad. I cant always be here, I don’t have to go on and on about my daily teaching schedule or coronavirus actually making me busier and whatnot. I just show up when I can. Because I’m town, and therefore dont give a shit what people think. On April 29 2020 10:32 GlowingBear wrote: I'm slightly demotivated/a little tired of mafia, yes. I wouldn't have played if there was another person who signed up for the 12th slot. I was serious about being just as happy to not play as to play.Although I agree with you about Trfel's opening, it will only be proven if he in fact acts lazy and uses his opening as a cop-out. If he is mafia, he could be using that excuse right out of the bat and simply not play. Trfel usually asks lots of questions as town, forcing people to contribute to the thread. That's townie from him. But I'll let him explain himself. Actually, @Trfel, one question: why do you believe you'll be lazy in this game? Are you uninterested? However, I was mostly joking, to see people's reactions. It clearly wouldn't make much sense for me to try and give an excuse at the start of the game when I easily could have done so a few hours before. With the one caveat being that I tend to be a lower page-count player these past few games/years, I try to be more efficient with my posts, and I think it's been working fairly well. I just know some people tend to view that as suspicious. | ||
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Trfel
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On April 29 2020 10:44 GlowingBear wrote: I dunno. You get what you get.So you plan to not be lazy?  Also, what do you think of the reactions so far? Honestly I'm kinda confused, I'm just in a place where I'm trying to get more information and hoping something comes of it. Lemme reread the thread and see. I'll be around for a bit if anyone wants to talk. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 29 2020 13:41 Vivax wrote: I'd think that it's because he made a weakly -reasoned townread on me, and was over-defensive of this read when Kurumi asked about it. I don't really know what to think about what he said about Kurumi; on one hand I agree that Kurumi felt weird around that time, but I don't think it was for the reason that raynpelikoneet mentioned.I'll bite. Assume I wanted to vote for rayn right now, what do you think would be the reason? My two cents, anyway. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Anyway, I find Kurumi to be the most interesting person in the thread at the moment.Super non-committal, zero followup. Saying it's "not bad" means he thinks there is something to it, but he didn't say another word on the subject in any of his posts. Yes, I know, Fecalfeast didn't post in that time so there was nothing new to discuss, but I still think that if Kurumi actually found Fecalfeast suspicious/interesting he would have mentioned it to others. Like later that same post: On April 29 2020 05:48 Kurumi wrote: Why is he more interested in me making an excuse than the scumread he just said was decent? But that's what he chose to ask raynpelikoneet about.You want to butt heads, eh? What do you make out of Trfel declaring to be lazy at the start of the game?And he never seemed to stop and question raynpelikoneet's alignment, or even find raynpelikoneet's response interesting. This I really don't get. Raynpelikoneet's play of hard defending someone early in the game for weak reasons (especially in Kurumi's view, for the exact same reason he is suspicious) should be seen as a terrible play. I'd think that would be at least worth mentioning. But all Kurumi cares about is a player who made an excuse, not the alignment of the person he's interacting with. Doesn't feel right to me. Thoughts? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 29 2020 13:55 ShoCkeyy wrote: Care to explain which ones?I don’t like a couple of slam posts so far. He’s on my scummy list. | ||
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Trfel
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On April 29 2020 14:02 Vivax wrote: I'm sorry, I don't understand the first sentence. You're saying that I want you to scumread raynpelikoneet and am afraid of being suspicious of Kurumi? First, I'm not afraid of being suspicious of Kurumi, see my latest post. And second, I don't want you to scumread raynpelikoneet, I don't particularly care what you do at this point in the game (except how it pertains to discerning your alignment). But you asked why you would be suspicious of raynpelikoneet so I was giving reasosn why.Reads to me like you would prefer me to scumread rayn citing reasons for that, while thinking that Kurumi should look scummy but being afraid of saying so. How was rayn in the defensive in that exchange? I read it as exactly the opposite. And I don't mean that raynpelikoneet was being defensive of himself, he was being defensive of me. I was going to go link posts that featured this but to be honest it's most of raynpelikoneet's filter, they really aren't hard to find. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 29 2020 14:44 Vivax wrote: Does anyone actually understand what Vivax is trying to say here? I keep reading this and can't understand it I don't think there's much merit to Kurumi calling Trfel mafia just for the lazy thing. In my opinion, it's not worth reading too much into, but it was also too early to call Trfel town. Rayn for one, is already saying 'Vivax will probably call me mafia for it', which implies he thinks I'm town. I'll skip the part of voting him for that because he'll just say 'good job' like last time that happened. Rayn more or less tried to pull off what I did with Jock two games ago (who was mafia and pushed Trfel aggressively with flimsy reasons), though the circumstances are different. Then he said I should read him mafia for it, which doesn't make much sense considering he should know that I still remember that fact well. And while I agree that Kurumi should know better than harping on Trfel's NAI posts, it's unfair to say he did that on his own after rayn led him to do that. Summing it up: It kind of feels like rayn here is trying to paint Kurumi mafia with the reasons I used on Jock, while trying to make me unable to call him mafia for it because he's emulating what we both did as town in the last games. So yeah rayn, you are right I will call you mafia for it And Trfel is mafia too, because right after he realized he should be scumreading you, he went and made a scum case on Kurumi in order to not have to. ##Unvote ##Vote rayn  No, I don't remember what reasons were used last game, the logic here feels so convoluted. I don't think that it makes Vivax mafia (I see no mafia motivation), I'm just really confused. I'll be back in an hour or two to catch up on the rest of the thread. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 30 2020 07:06 raynpelikoneet wrote: Really, I thought you were the other person who didn't understand it? Since you said you don't remember the reasons used last game?I do. | ||
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Trfel
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On April 30 2020 07:11 Vivax wrote: I see, thanks. With this and Jockmcplop's page 8 post I think I understand now. Though to me it sounds a little like "raynpelikoneet expected me to call him mafia for catching mafia super fast" which seems a bit funny In my head, I take full credit for dunking Jock trying to mislynch you in that one game. And the reason I jumped at rayn here is because it felt like he was doing to Kurumi what I did to Jock...And expected me to call him mafia for it, which I didn't find believable. It seems convoluted because it is. I don't really buy it, I don't have much of a read on raynpelikoneet yet, I know he's very capable as mafia. If he is mafia I'm sure there will be reasons not related to convoluted meta. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 30 2020 07:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: I don't agree with it, no. But I think I understand it. Even if I think it's really silly.Did you really see the light now Trfel? Like that post from Vivax explains everything? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 30 2020 08:46 Vivax wrote: I didn't post that because of anything related to you, I posted it because I wanted to post it.Without me believing that I was the reason he posted this, this post is actually pretty good. I'll skip the part where I know if rayn is scumreading him and just add Kurumi to the scummy pile. Also because of something in his biggish post I want to point out: This is a stretch. Apparently, last game, I was an easy lynch target at the start of the game (fair enough I suppose, I tend to be). Jockmcplop (mafia) went after me, and the way he did so had some flaws so Vivax (town) was able to push him and lynch him. In this game, I made an excuse so that's easy for mafia to jump on. Kurumi went after it, and Vivax sees you jumping on him as the same thing. It kinda makes sense? Except that it's not scummy for you to push something at the start of the game, especially when the reason for suspecting it is successful meta. And it's not true that "meta" makes it unable to pressure you for the push. | ||
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Trfel
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On April 30 2020 09:41 Vivax wrote: Did you expect that from raynpelikoneet regardless of alignment? Or what makes this alignment indicative, especially given that he was town that game with the "scumslip," no?Well, you forgot the 'he's going to call me mafia for this' part. Which now I think he claims is something he said because I do it every game, not because of something he posted. Though I'd like confirmation on this because rayn didn't really confirm if that's how it went. Dunno, maybe I actually had a stroke of genius when making that post, but looking back at it, I worded it badly. I did expect rayn to be trying to do some kind of reverse mind trick when saying I was going to call him mafia. Similar to his 'scumslip' in holy guardians where afterwards he acted like he did it on purpose. | ||
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Trfel
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Trfel
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For maybe the first time ever, I actually like Koshi. Surprised, haha. Why does everyone think Jockmcplop's play was so suspicious? To me it was obviously a joke/pressure vote. I don't understand why it's so bad and blatantly a scummy mistake. People already pointed out Alakaslam's wishy-washy attitude, it makes me suspicious but it also is the thing that makes me hesitate to scumread him (I know, the irony here is incredible). I want to read a previous Alakaslam game or two later tonight for comparison. Alakaslam is also a ton more serious than I am used to, which if I remember correctly is his tendency when he is mafia. So I am highly suspicious of him (admittedly, mostly due to meta), but I want to double check the meta later. Fecalfeast just seems to follow thread sentiment and not contribute much. Feels like he is just existing. I find him hard to read, but that all his reads follow thread sentiment is rather interesting. Really don't know what to make of Kurumi. Going to try to reread his filter. | ||
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Trfel
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I liked Grackaroni's catch-up post, I like how he pointed out Fecalfeast forgetting about the thread somehow after being the first one to post in it. That said, I also liked Fecalfeast's catch-up, it seemed genuine to me (especially admitting that he changed his read completely). And I'm willing to give Alakaslam the benefit of the doubt on the meta points at least, I know that my "meta" has changed a lot over the past few years of infrequent gameplay, it's reasonable that others would experience that as well. I'll try to re-evaluate his play from a non-meta perspective. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 30 2020 14:46 Fecalfeast wrote: Can I ask why?Chezinu mafia i think is my last thought before bed time. I should be lucky enough to play before deadline He feels very disinterested/demotivated this game, but I'm not sure that's quite enough for me to be confident killing him yet. | ||
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Trfel
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+ Show Spoiler [Analysis] + On April 30 2020 00:56 Fecalfeast wrote: Note that this is kind of a counterexample, where he says he likes Kurumi.Dislike rayns post on kurumi and i like kurumi so far Shockckckckckeyyyy why is it a koshi mafia entrance and why did it take until jock voted for you to vote On April 30 2020 00:58 Fecalfeast wrote: But then immediately takes it back (at least to some extent?).I didn't see this post previously but this seems better than rayns accusation. Also it involves me so it's more interesting by default On April 30 2020 00:59 Fecalfeast wrote: Jock seems opportunistic for the koshi vote and shockkeeeyy seems like he was just throwing shit at the wall and was surprised it stuck On April 30 2020 01:31 Fecalfeast wrote: Following thread sentiment here... Being suspicious of Jockmcplop but not voting him or following up or pushing this.Wait jock says his vote on koshi was jokes? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm On April 30 2020 04:18 Fecalfeast wrote: And of course, the catch-up post here.##vote glowingbear Let's do this In summary, Fecalfeast seems willing to jump on anyone who's suspicious. He's said something negative about Chezinu, Kurumi, Jockmcplop, raynpelikoneet, and GlowingBear this game already, feels like a lot for the game state and how much he's been invovled. I think it's especially suspect how he jumps on the GlowingBear wagon, there is no prior interest in GlowingBear in his filter and there is no followup either. I don't know for sure, I like some of Fecalfeast's posts, but this really seems suspicious too. Maybe something to wait on for later? Thoughts? On April 30 2020 14:54 Fecalfeast wrote: Fair enough, thanks. Noted that you noticed it too That's the reason and I did not say kill him today | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Not really confident about this deadline. Hopefully the deadline process will give more information to work with, though, at least.I like Fecalfeast's gameplay. Not necessarily that I think he's town, but at least his most recent set of posts, I like for some unknown reason. And this makes me not want to lynch him, even though the logical side of me thinks that him being so suspicious of so many people following the thread sentiment is actually a pretty decent reason to lynch someone I don't want to lynch Alakaslam today. Even if I don't agree with some of his posts, I can see where he gets his reads from, and it does seem to me like he is trying to figure things out. Chezinu, ShoCkeyy, Grackaroni, and Jockmcplop I don't really want to lynch but also wouldn't have strong feelings if it ended up happening. Potentially add Vivax here, his play feels really flat after the initial convoluted read. It just doesn't have the scumhunting drive I'm used to seeing from Vivax. Him being sick may play a role in this, though. Hoping for a good recovery for Vivax and GlowingBear and any others I may have forgotten who are sick. Still a few filters to reread, saved the hard ones for last | ||
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Trfel
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On April 30 2020 15:40 Chezinu wrote: Can I ask, is there a reason to not help save the economy by throwing off excess baggage that isn't helping? Like perhaps, a player in a mafia game who only talks about banks in a way that seems to have no connection to or investment in the game at hand?Loss-absorbing capacity among banks is substantially higher as a result of both regulatory requirements and stress testing exercises. | ||
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Trfel
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@Kurumi, if you really thought Vivax's post about Fecalfeast was a good lead at the start of the game, why have you entirely failed to follow up on it? | ||
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Trfel
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The reasons are the same as before. On April 29 2020 14:01 Trfel wrote: Kurumi hasn't provided content since then, either. His big summary post looked pretty, but didn't actually have any content; most of it was recounting what had happened in the thread. It shows effort, but not thought, and that's key.I find Kurumi to be the most interesting person in the thread at the moment.Super non-committal, zero followup. Saying it's "not bad" means he thinks there is something to it, but he didn't say another word on the subject in any of his posts. Yes, I know, Fecalfeast didn't post in that time so there was nothing new to discuss, but I still think that if Kurumi actually found Fecalfeast suspicious/interesting he would have mentioned it to others. Like later that same post:Why is he more interested in me making an excuse than the scumread he just said was decent? But that's what he chose to ask raynpelikoneet about. And he never seemed to stop and question raynpelikoneet's alignment, or even find raynpelikoneet's response interesting. This I really don't get. Raynpelikoneet's play of hard defending someone early in the game for weak reasons (especially in Kurumi's view, for the exact same reason he is suspicious) should be seen as a terrible play. I'd think that would be at least worth mentioning. But all Kurumi cares about is a player who made an excuse, not the alignment of the person he's interacting with. Doesn't feel right to me. Thoughts? The only people he really showed any thought on in that post were me (Trfel) and raynpelikoneet. We've already been over this and I don't feel like going over it again. You have enough information to make up your mind already. But look at Kurumi's play as a whole, it's very underwhelming. Not a lot of critical thinking, lots of logical gaps, and today (real-time, 24-hour day), he hasn't even really been pushing his reads. For example, if he really was convinced that I was a mafia power role (first off, how would he even know this?), why wouldn't he care to try to get people to lynch me? Or at least share his reasoning why? I could definitely be wrong, I'm really good at being wrong. Honestly I'm not sure if I'll have enough self-confidence to stick with this vote by end of day, but for now I am going to trust my read. And I'd encourage you to take another look at Kurumi and truly evaluate what he's contributed so far. ##vote Kurumi | ||
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Trfel
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On April 30 2020 19:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: Care to explain? I don't think I felt the same way :/ Though I can always reread.I have many problems with grackaronis posts. | ||
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Reminds me, that's another thing about Kurumi I don't like. In his discussion with Jockmcplop, he learned (and seemed to accept) that posts like my entrance post were normal and acceptable on this forum at this time. But why didn't that affect his read at all? :/ | ||
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Trfel
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Maybe GlowingBear is mafia, but I don't really feel convinced about that I don't feel like he's done anything particularly horrible, but he also hasn't done anything particularly good. I would be a lot happier to lynch him if he wasn't sick, because I know how much effort he typically puts into the game as town. But I'd rather lynch someone like Kurumi, who did enough to get out of most people's suspicion and then has been coasting since. But I know that probably won't happen.Jockmcplop was definitely joking in his vote on Koshi, the post afterwards where he said he was being serious was dripping in sarcasm. I'll reread GlowingBear yet again, I'd prefer to find something I'm a little more confident in though. | ||
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Trfel
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On May 01 2020 02:04 GlowingBear wrote: GlowingBear, my main question to you concerns your townread on Kurumi.I'll be here discussing but don't expect much because I'm working Yes, Kurumi's post was pretty and showed effort. But it was largely a summary of the thread, and only the parts on myself and raynpelikoneet showed any amount of thought whatsoever (not even going to discuss it, but you know my thoughts on that). Why can't scum put in effort? Especially when it doesn't involve thinking or figuring out who is mafia? | ||
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On April 30 2020 23:57 GlowingBear wrote: @Vivax and the rest, what makes this post so bad? I get that this wasn't really pertinent to the discussion, but I don't think that makes GlowingBear mafia. The main issue I see with it is that there are a lot of townreads and very few scumreads (really only on Alakaslam), but given that there's only 25 pages in the thread I don't find it completely unreasonable.I started actually reading the thread and I was posting what it appeared to be more significative, Slam is a scum read because of his wishy washiness. He simply isn't making any hard stances and that's why I think he is probably mafia. Jock's vote wasn't just super dumb, it simply doesn't make sense from a town perspective. And if it doesn't make sense from a town perspective, he is probably mafia. I tried to play a bit more but I wasn't feeling well, I did my best to catch up with what is written. I never called rayn town. I don't like how he is not taking hard stances, but I have a gut feeling he is probably town and I don't want to talk about it for reasons. I'd rather have him alive and think about him later. I thought Trfel could be mafia if he was actually lazy. My intention with pointing that out was to generate discussion. I think he has being posted a fair amount of information and he is playing more like he is town. I'm not lynching Trfel here. Kurumi posted the same thoughts I had on Trfel and he kept answering rayn in the same way I was thinking, meaning we are coming from the same perspective - hence, town. His wall of texts has he thought process completely displayed on thread, crystal clear. He's not to be discussed day1 after that. Same thing with Vivax. I had the impression on the beginning of the game that he was acting a bit fake, but he is actively contributing with the thread and clearly displaying his thought process. I didn't read what Grackaroni posted. Shockeyy had a bad opening on you, could be mafia, but I wouldn't lynch him today because he does look like mafia as town and he isn't been apologetic for not playing (which I believe is a scum meta for him) Chez is BROWN <3 FF's post about re-reading the thread and flipping his opinion makes him town. I don't know who I'm forgetting, let me see My gut says GlowingBear isn't mafia, my head doesn't have great reasons to call him mafia, unless something changes I don't really want to lynch him today. | ||
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On May 01 2020 02:11 GlowingBear wrote: I'd ask you to reread the post/Kurumi's filter except you said you're at work and can't, I'll try to respect that.Scum CAN put effort, but they are most likely not. It's not solely effort that I am townreading Kurumi. He also had the same perspective as me in the beginning of the game, which points out to him being the same alignment as me, and his thoughts are always crystal clear, original, and kept discussion going. That's why he is town. I guess I can agree that his thoughts are clear, and original, and kept discussion going. I would also say they have logical flaws and don't make sense though. What exactly did you and him "mindmeld" about? Just my opening? Because I'd consider agreeing about that fairly insignificant. | ||
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On May 01 2020 02:17 raynpelikoneet wrote: I guess that's not how I read it. I read it as:he says: jock is mafia slam is mafia rayn can be town or mafia trfel could be town or mafia well whatever, everything else is someone can be town or mafia aside from Kurumi. into later "jock and KOSHI are mafia but i am gonna make a case on rayn". what's GOOD in that? Jockmcplop is mafia Alakaslam is mafia Raynpelikoneet is town (yes, I realize he directly said he never called you town, maybe this is a misinterpretation on my part) Trfel is town Fecalfeast is town I guess to me, the interesting part was how he gave so many townreads. As mafia, I would expect GlowingBear to be willing to go with any counterwagon that could gain traction, no? It feels like he is boxing himself in a bit here, which makes me slightly inclined to think he's town. Honestly there isn't much good about the post, and I don't have solid reasons to townread GlowingBear by any stretch, it's just a gut read. I am just trying to understand why everyone else is so much more certain he is mafia. I can't defend GlowingBear, I'd just rather lynch someone else if that makes sense. | ||
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On May 01 2020 02:23 raynpelikoneet wrote: That's my issue, I don't really want to vote Jockmcplop either fine, Trfel, vote Jock? I don't think that the vote onto Koshi makes him mafia, I don't find that suspicious at all. I don't like the lack of activity but I don't have much of a read on him Bad Trfel, no good scumread | ||
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On May 01 2020 02:27 raynpelikoneet wrote: I guessssssssssssssssssssss but I'd prefer Chezinu or Fecalfeast?Grack? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Okay, poor secrecy, but anyway, I could see myself lynching Grackaroni closer to the deadline if he continues to fail to contribute anything. I don't really want to vote him now to put that pressure on him if he's mafia, I'd rather see what he does undisturbed. Chezinu because he's been so distant from the thread. He feels really disinterested and not present at all. I guess I don't really know if that makes him mafia but it certainly doesn't make him town. And it's a noticeable departure from his normal play. Fecalfeast because he's thrown around so many suspicions, it just feels like he's throwing scumreads at everything and seeing what sticks. This is probably my #2 lynch (after Kurumi). | ||
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It's really hard for me to get any kind of accuracy in my reads without seeing how people act around a deadline, when there's something at stake.But that won't stop me from trying. I'll reread Kurumi. | ||
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On May 01 2020 02:36 Grackaroni wrote: You know, I actually don't mind Grackaroni's reason to suspect Koshi.I'm not doing anything else. I have to work soon. I have 5 minutes I will vote to consolidate somewhere or I'll vote Koshi. GlowingBear didn't have an impact with his scumreads, he didn't "make waves." But he did jump on poor Jockmcplop way too aggressively, and that's suspicious. Doesn't match. I don't think that alone makes me want to vote for Koshi, but I'll keep it in min. | ||
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Trfel
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##vote ShoCkeyy Underwhelming filter. I like Vivax's (?) point about ShoCkeyy saying he voted Koshi only for a pressure vote, but also saying that Koshi's opening was a mafia opening. He's yet to give any other reasons to suspect Koshi. And more importantly, he's just saying recently "I like GlowingBear more than Koshi" while voting for Alakaslam, while GlowingBear is leading the lynch and Koshi or Alakaslam aren't really in contention. Not sold on it but maybe it'll work? | ||
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On May 01 2020 02:57 ShoCkeyy wrote: Care to explain why they are terrible?Terrible decisions are about to be made. | ||
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##unvote ##vote Kurumi | ||
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On May 01 2020 03:12 Fecalfeast wrote: Help, who's mafia?I made it before deadline what's up | ||
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On May 01 2020 03:03 Hapahauli wrote: Latest votecount.Day 1 - 1-HOUR-TILL-DEADLINE COUNT Previous Votecount: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558949-oil-futures-mafia?page=20#382 Votes: GlowingBear: (3) Koshi, FecalFeast, Vivax ShoCkeyy: (3) Alakaslam, Trfel, Raynpelikoneet Alakaslam: (2) ShocCkeyy, Grackaroni Jockmcplop: (1) GlowingBear Trfel: (1) Kurumi Koshi: (1) Chezinu Kurumi: (0) Raynpelikoneet: (0) FecalFeast: (0) Vivax: (0) Chezinu: (0) Grackaroni: (0) Not Voting: Jockmcplop GlowingBear is set to be lynched with 3 votes. until End of Day -2 votes on ShoCkeyy, +2 votes on Kurumi. | ||
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On May 01 2020 03:28 Fecalfeast wrote: GlowingBear is busy at work. He flailed at Koshi for a while, nothing super notable though.Slam acting serious makes me think he's town rn when normally I'd think it was scummy. That's weird. Has gb done anything lately why do you want me to switch shockkeyy Consider maybe switching to Kurumi? Mostly the same reasons as before. I just feel like Kurumi hasn't contributed much actual thought to the thread. | ||
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On May 01 2020 03:37 Koshi wrote: I don't know, honestly I never understood "mindmeld" stuff. To me, agreeing with someone or having the same thoughts as someone never means they are confirmed town or anything like that.If Kurumi is mafia, what the fuck has gb been doing the first 40 hours? Mindmeld with mafia? Is that possible? Like.... regardlrdd if gb is mafia or town. He kinda locked kurumi in as town. No? You think town gb can have duch a strong tr on mafia kurumi? Yes, I think GlowingBear could be wrong on Kurumi as town. I don't see why not? | ||
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On May 01 2020 03:39 Kurumi wrote: Oh, look who suddenly decided to show up!Thank god, now we need jock to come out of the blue and vote me and this game has gone exactly how I thought it's going to go down yesterday. | ||
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On May 01 2020 03:53 Kurumi wrote: But we're mafia aren't we? Isn't that the kind of thing we are supposed to do?I was being soft pushed entire game by double chainsawing Trfel and Ryan. | ||
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I have simply been trying to do my best to play the game and find mafia. I'm sorry if I am wrong, I'm good at being wrong. I would be happy to consider other targets, like I spent an hour and a half last night filter diving everyone else in the game and trying to consider other targets, but for me to do that you'd have to give me an alternative. And it doesn't seem like that's something you are interested in doing. So, I apologize. I can try to be more polite. I didn't mean to attack you or anything, just have a discussion and play the game. | ||
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Sorry Kurumi.I'll take a break and try to re-evaluate. | ||
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On May 01 2020 04:29 ShoCkeyy wrote: ShoCkeyy, why do you say this?GB reads now. | ||
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On May 01 2020 05:25 Alakaslam wrote: Alakaslam, I think you're town, but did you mean to call yourself scum here?“Slam you shit at scum, cant you see? How can you be this stupid slam?” Trash your vote then, you all ready know I dont give a cuss what you think of my alignment or anyone else for that matter, if I get lynched I get lynched. Go back to being productive and stop insulting my scum play. :/ | ||
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On May 01 2020 08:03 Vivax wrote: Thanks.GB, Shockeyy is up close. I'd like Shockeyy to continue his inquiry into Slam though. I didn't finish looking at EoD from a lynch derailing perspective and wagon analysis, but rayn's switch looks bad to me. I thought he was as confident as me on GB. Are you still suspicious of me? Is it bad that I am still unsure about you? | ||
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On May 01 2020 08:09 Alakaslam wrote: Thanks, sorry I didn't understand what you meant before.If he thinks I am scum for flailing around like this, he insults my scum play. I have a lot of off games, but in my good games as scum I am never scumread until the end of it or I just get instalynched for no reason in my complete absence. Rarely is it because I dont look townie as all get out. Then, I was scumread by FeFe!! If that makes me mafia to you then so be it. @Vivax, thanks for answering my questions. | ||
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I don't get why the Koshi vote and unvote makes him mafia. I don't get why anything else makes him mafia either. Please explain? | ||
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On April 30 2020 10:49 GlowingBear wrote: Also, @GlowingBear, why was this post the best post in the thread to you? I get that it was a lot of effort and made Kurumi look town to you, but I don't see your conclusions matching Kurumi's conclusions in this post. Calling it the "best post in the thread" seems like quite the stretch.This is the best post in thread and Kurumi is top town. There is no way scum would put so much effort while also mindmelding with me in the beginning of the game. | ||
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Appreciate thoughts on this. Also, apologies to all for defending GlowingBear earlier if he is indeed mafia. | ||
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Care to summarize why raynpelikoneet is mafia to you? I skimmed your filter for it again and I don't believe you ever clearly laid it out. No rush, if you want to play Diplomacy first I'll be here a few hours. | ||
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On May 01 2020 12:11 GlowingBear wrote: I'm sorry, care to explain why? I'm not seeing it, what makes it so obvious?LOL Vivax, then finish EoD because it makes no sense to keep calling me scum right now. It should be obvious to you | ||
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On May 01 2020 12:20 GlowingBear wrote: Jockmcplop was joking when he said he genuinely thought Koshi was mafia. He was being sarcastic then. But oh well, if you're not scumreading him for that anymore I guess it doesn't matter.I've finished playing diplo today, I'll stay here for like 30 minutes before going to sleep. Jock wasn't joking on both of his posts because he said himself he GENUINELY THOUGHT KOSHI WAS MAFIA because of his opening. I've already talked about rayn, but okay, I'll flesh out. I think rayn has been under the radar and not actually taking hard stances. Early day1 he said you had a thought process that made you look townie. What is so particularly townie in thinking "I'm lazy haha won't be posting much okay lol"? There's nothing townie to read into it. His read seemed forced. Then he later went on the game just talking a bit but without taking any hard stance. He was suspicious of Kurumi but didn't push his lynch. He decided to vote for jock but I couldn't find anything in his filter where he said why jock was mafia other than "jock can look very townie when he is mafia". That's not a reason to vote him. He then went under the radar and only changed his vote to sheep Koshi on a faint reason to call me mafia. He decided I wasn't a good lynch today and went against Kurumi who we know is town. it doesn't make sense, it feels rayn is just trying to survive. I thought that he might be blue because of this, I didn't really want to engage in a shitfest saying RAYN IS MAFIA WHARRGARBL. But now, thinking about it, he is most likely mafia instead of blue. Thanks for explaining, I appreciate it. It helps. I'll re-evaluate raynpelikoneet (I've been avoiding reading the potential night kill targets to save time). | ||
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On May 01 2020 12:24 GlowingBear wrote: Come to think of it, why didn't you vote to save yourself? I guess it doesn't make you mafia since Kurumi flipped town but it seems so weird to not vote to save yourself, even if the alternative is your top townread. I've done that before. Like to me it almost only makes sense as mafia so you could say "look, I didn't vote to save myself!" because there's no reason as town not to vote to save yourself?Why would I bother fleshing out my thoughts in the thread if I'm being lynched? Why wouldn't I try to deflect my lynch into any other target? Why wouldn't I hammer Kurumi after he came to the thread and acted so poorly against his lynched? I had an excuse to save myself I don't understand how you can't 100% see me as town there Can you explain why your reads were flopping around so much towards the deadline? You were first convinced on Jockmcplop and Alakaslam being mafia, then kinda thinking raynpelikoneet might be mafia. Then writing a half-case on raynpelikoneet, then deciding that mafia was Koshi and Jockmcplop and raynpelikoneet or Alakaslam. Seems like a few unexplained leaps. | ||
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On May 01 2020 12:50 Fecalfeast wrote: Those are a lot of scum leans, no? Given that there are only three mafia in the game?I have scum reads or at least scumleans on shockey slam gb chezinu and atm grack And i was scumming kurumi but actually can you show me where i threw suspicion everyehere? Pointing out or questioning perceived contradictions is hardly throwing suspicion | ||
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On May 01 2020 12:20 GlowingBear wrote: To clarify the bolded red section, raynpelikoneet did vote for Jockmcplop over the vote/unvote thing on Koshi. The same reason you were scumreading Jockmcplop.I've already talked about rayn, but okay, I'll flesh out. I think rayn has been under the radar and not actually taking hard stances. Early day1 he said you had a thought process that made you look townie. What is so particularly townie in thinking "I'm lazy haha won't be posting much okay lol"? There's nothing townie to read into it. His read seemed forced. Then he later went on the game just talking a bit but without taking any hard stance. He was suspicious of Kurumi but didn't push his lynch. He decided to vote for jock but I couldn't find anything in his filter where he said why jock was mafia other than "jock can look very townie when he is mafia". That's not a reason to vote him. He then went under the radar and only changed his vote to sheep Koshi on a faint reason to call me mafia. He decided I wasn't a good lynch today and went against Kurumi who we know is town. it doesn't make sense, it feels rayn is just trying to survive. I thought that he might be blue because of this, I didn't really want to engage in a shitfest saying RAYN IS MAFIA WHARRGARBL. But now, thinking about it, he is most likely mafia instead of blue. I'm sorry, maybe I'm just being blind here but I'm not really seeing it. I had a longer post written, I can discuss it further if you want, but the short of it is to me it felt like raynpelikoneet cared about who got lynched while if he was mafia, he could have justified parking his vote a lot of places (assuming you are town, since this is your argument, you being one of them). I'm far from 100% on raynpelikoneet being town, I just don't really see the reasons to scumread him that you've shared. The rest of what GlowingBear has posted makes a lot more sense to me. I'll likely be around for a while if anyone wants to talk about anything, if I get bored though I may fall asleep. | ||
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On May 01 2020 13:52 Alakaslam wrote: You mean, because of how he voted for ShoCkeyy? Or what?I am now pretty sure Rayn is mafia. Will shower then return. | ||
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On May 01 2020 13:56 Fecalfeast wrote: No, I just find it a bit strange and slightly suspect. But you've answered my question, instead of shying away from it you're standing by it confidently but not in a brazen/brash manner. So thank you.what are you even saying? I'm only allowed 3 suspects maximum?? | ||
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Suspicious of Koshi because: Says he likes ShoCkeyy possibly even less than GlowingBear, says he could move from GlowingBear to ShoCkeyy at the deadline, then doesn't do so. Says he votes for the scummiest low-activity poster while voting GlowingBear instead of ShoCkeyy (after GlowingBear's string of update posts). Mild "don't lynch Kurumi" post. Feels so mild-mannered for Koshi, who is usually such an aggressive poster. He doesn't seem to care much about who gets lynched between GlowingBear, his super scumread, and Kurumi, his townread. Tells raynpelikoneet to keep voting for Kurumi while sticking on GlowingBear himself Calls for vigilante shot on Chezinu instead of ShoCkeyy, who has been his secondary target previously Thoughts? | ||
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On May 01 2020 14:10 Alakaslam wrote: Sorry, I took a quick glance in your filter and that was my impression about your read on raynpelikoneet.I didnt know he did that. No that is not why. Why then? | ||
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@Jockmcplop, hope you are doing okay. My read on Koshi isn't an associative read with ShoCkeyy necessarily. Of course if ShoCkeyy is mafia then it looks a lot worse for Koshi, but as it is, it feels like Koshi is very inconsistent with his scumread on ShoCkeyy. Like it's a fake read or he doesn't care about it. Not a super amazing 100% point but I still think it has some merit. I'll take another look at the Fecalfeast thing. Also feels like everyone except for me is scumreading raynpelikoneet, something about that doesn't feel quite right. Hopefully I'll be asleep again soon but who knows. | ||
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On May 01 2020 20:12 Jockmcplop wrote: @Vivaxthe two koshi posts, although I don't need to, I feel I should explain. The first post was a joke with a joke vote. You probably think that's stupid, fair enough. The second post was sarcasm, as trfel pointed out. There was no way I could hard scumread koshi from what he had posted so far in the thread, i was being sarcastic. read this again carefully from the perspective that I am being sarcastic: I get now that responding to people not understanding a joke vote with sarcasm that people might also not understand isn't smart. I take responsibility for that. | ||
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On May 01 2020 03:44 Kurumi wrote: Also @VivaxI waited until my lynch was more or less assured, I asked for a replacement 11 and half hours ago because I couldn't muster any interest to play this game. So to make sure you don't make me suffer another fucking cycle I decided to come and say hi. You mad? | ||
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That's not a good sign | ||
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On May 02 2020 05:59 ShoCkeyy wrote: So, GlowingBear is either town or mafia There's only two possible scenarios with the information above, either they're trying to frame GB or GB is mafia. | ||
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On May 01 2020 12:50 Fecalfeast wrote: And a few (Fecalfeast) posts later, says GlowingBear probably isn't scum anymore.I have scum reads or at least scumleans on shockey slam gb chezinu and atm grack And i was scumming kurumi but actually can you show me where i threw suspicion everyehere? Pointing out or questioning perceived contradictions is hardly throwing suspicion Leaves ShoCkeyy, Alakaslam, Chezinu, Grackaroni. He talked most about ShoCkeyy and Chezinu. If anything, I would say the night kill implicates them. I'll likely be around for a bit if anyone wants to discuss anything. Unfortunately there isn't a ton of new info to work with imo | ||
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@Grackaroni, you can think what you want. I haven't been defending people, just sharing my thoughts. If you really think I have been only going after easy targets, why would I "go after" Koshi? But I won't defend myself other than saying I act according to how I view the game. Honestly I'm getting kinda tinfoily and paranoid based on the night kill. Why not kill Vivax? Everyone was townreading him. Or Koshi, most people were townreading him (exceptions I believe being myself and Alakaslam). Or even myself, for that matter, most people were townreading me. Yes, a lot of people were townreading Fecalfeast, and he wasn't likely to be lynched this game, but the same goes for the above people. It feels too far off to be a medic dodge. Perhaps it was an attempted blue snipe, but on what grounds? I just fear that it means that one or more of the aforementioned people are actually mafia. That's what a night kill like this can point to. Unfortunately I don't have a solid case to scumread any of them For reference, here is an example of a game where something like the above happened, and night kill analysis would have been the way to figure it out. Don't want to dive too deep into the paranoia, but it's hard to ignore entirely... | ||
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On May 02 2020 14:33 Vivax wrote: You mean his read on ShoCkeyy or Fecalfeast? I skimmed his filter, those two seemed most prominent to me. Sure, he talked about Chezinu less, but he was one of few who talked about him at all (at least in any kind of alignment indicative way).Morning. Have you read his filter Trfel? There's a read that sticks out imo. I've been burned before from drawing conclusions from kills though. And shouldn't Slam have a check? And I guess we'd better wait for Alakaslam to say. | ||
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I've honestly no clue who is mafia this game | ||
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On May 02 2020 14:58 Vivax wrote: I was just teasing him really.I thought you had a scumread on Shockeyy. You even called out one of his posts as being a whole load of nothing this day. I'd lynch him today. I've no idea about ShoCkeyy To me it's really hard to tell when he's town or mafia, I kinda want to scumread him every game. His play this game feels different from last game (where he was mafia), I don't know if that's just him trying to change his play after last game or if he's town this game. His activity is markedly improved from last game too. If I had to take a guess honestly I'd guess town.Why do you want to lynch him? Just because of the inconsistency on Koshi? I'm still not sold on GlowingBear being town, raynpelikoneet's lack of activity recently (since he started getting scumread) feels off, Koshi is a big question mark... You're not mafia, are you? | ||
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On May 02 2020 15:33 Vivax wrote: Not a zero conviction vote, a low conviction vote. I felt like there was a higher chance of ShoCkeyy flipping mafia than GlowingBear. Koshi (townread at the time) had mentioned he could switch to ShoCkeyy as well, I felt like it was actually a realistic lynch, too.So this was a zero conviction vote? Why mention him not voting GB then as if it was a reason for him to be mafia? I do that paragraph's second half is a reason ShoCkeyy could be mafia. Not that he should have voted for Alakaslam, just that he didn't seem to care that his townread was getting lynched and no one was caring about his scumread really. I just feel that ShoCkeyy's play overall fits better as town than mafia right now, specifically the increased post count and some of the reads he's making where you can see his thought process and it's original (not that I agree with it necessarily, but it seems like he's thinking about things). @Alakaslam, I don't see any reason to lynch Jockmcplop right now. I don't have a great read on him at all (just a gut-read that he is town, but then again I have that for a lot of players, too many...), I have kinda been ignoring trying to read him until he posts more and there is more information to work with. I'm thinking that maybe I want to lynch Chezinu today. Sorry if I'm not explaining things clearly, I'm not quite myself tonight. | ||
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Town Maybe Town? Vivax Koshi raynpelikoneet Super Weak Townread ShoCkeyy Grackaroni Alakaslam Jockmcplop Mafia? Chezinu GlowingBear? Mafia | ||
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Vivax, are you sure GlowingBear is town? I know he didn't vote, and that can seem towny, but outside of that his play reads like mafia to me. I'm on my phone so it's hard to elaborate, but if it's only one thing that makes you think someone is town, IMO you'd better be really really freaking sure about that one thing. Mafia can do surprising things sometimes. | ||
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GlowingBear 1. Scumread Koshi for misconstruing GlowingBear's play. However, note the timing, he scumread Koshi well after this all started. Despite GlowingBear not having a townread on Koshi, he got mad at Koshi and treated Koshi like town and never questioned that he could be mafia until much later, when raynpelikoneet asks him about Koshi. This doesn't feel natural at all. Town tend to be quick to call their accusers scum, especially when they feel misrepresented and ignored and all the things GlowingBear was saying. 2. Shifting reads. His scumreads shift in priority in a way that doesn't make sense. First he says Jockmcplop is mafia, and Alakaslam second. Then he says Jockmcplop and Koshi are mafia, and raynpelikoneet or Alakaslam. Then he was making a case on raynpelikoneet to defend himself (huh?). Then most recently raynpelikoneet as top mafia. It doesn't feel like he is putting much thought into his scumreads. 3. Evaluates my post on Koshi at face value. While this is objectively good, I don't see this coming from town who strongly scumreads Koshi and cares about his alignment. GlowingBear's thoughts are correct, and that's the issue here. GlowingBear doesn't use it as an opportunity to convince me to vote for Koshi or anything. Not that he should lie, or ignore my points being weak, but he could have directed me to stronger reasons to scumread Koshi. Or pointed out the strength of my remaining point instead of merely saying it was the strongest point I provided. Feels like he is just sharing his thoughts instead of actually caring about people's alignments. Sorry if that doesn't make sense, I know it's a lot of words. There are a few other points I could make, but I figured I would just bring up these things now. ##vote GlowingBear | ||
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On May 02 2020 16:49 Vivax wrote: What GlowingBear said about losing motivation and not caring if he was lynched is 100% true, regardless of alignment. Given how he was being constantly scumread, sick, and in a Diplomacy game, I could really see him not minding being lynched there.Yeah, you may be right that I'm giving too much importance to that, but when as mafia you just want to survive, voting someone else to save yourself for another cycle is really a nobrainer. He was here at EoD 100%. I think I'll chill for now and see what GB brings to the table to get rayn and Koshi lynched. Because it's kind of bold to be in a line of thinking where the mafia are Koshi, rayn and one of me or Slam and I want to see how he justifies that. . It's not an impossible combination, but kinda like assuming mafia hit the active vet jackpot. Though rayn to me doesn't feel like the same rayn from yesterday before EoD, so there's that. It's hard to describe, or show without quotes, but maybe sometime take another look at GlowingBear's filter and see how his reads on Koshi and raynpelikoneet and Alakaslam evolve. And see how much weight and care he puts behind those reads. I think it's very telling. | ||
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If you're wondering what changed between my case/vote and my list post, I read GlowingBear's filter a few times. Chezinu, I'm sorry, I'm not sure what you mean Care to translate for those of us who struggle to see things the way you do? | ||
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On May 02 2020 21:46 Jockmcplop wrote: Honestly it doesn't really, especially since GlowingBear said the same thing first.RE: point 3, how does my analysis of your koshi post effect your read on me? | ||
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On May 03 2020 05:41 Vivax wrote: Just no one commented on it. Maybe I need to rewrite it.Hard to think of something I'm not underwhelmed from. Which people btw. ##Vote rayn Voting raynpelikoneet if he doesn't play makes sense? Except for a lot of people aren't playing currently | ||
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On May 03 2020 06:41 Vivax wrote: Hm, that makes sense, fair enough. I'll keep my vote on GlowingBear for now (I'm most confident he is mafia) but I guess I could vote for raynpelikoneet if things keep going this way.Yeah I'm sorry if I don't pay too much attention to your case right now. I'm also kinda triggered that today to me feels like a circlejerk between you and me. But if vets I'm used to like Koshi and rayn basically put 1% of the effort they did on D1, coupled with the FF kill, then odds are at least one of them is mafia. And I'm putting my money on rayn, also because of his voting shenanigans yesterday. Also, sorry Jockmcplop, realized I forgot to respond to you. I am sorry for being incorrect. For some reason I'm having trouble finding the posts in your filter. I take it the reason you ask is because you're scumreading Koshi too, so the same logic that it looks suspicious for GlowingBear should look suspicious for you too. That makes sense but I don't think it really applies to this case, since this is more of an emotional point. GlowingBear should be much more emotionally invested in his scumread of Koshi if he is town, and I would expect that to come out much more in his play. | ||
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@GlowingBear, why doesn't ShoCkeyy's post makes sense? I can understand where he is coming from, at least, even if I don't necessarily agree. | ||
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On May 03 2020 14:04 GlowingBear wrote: I'll leave that for ShoCkeyy to answer, I guesssssssss I can kinda see where you're coming from, even if I can see ShoCkeyy's perspective more easily.Why would FF's death in any way incriminate me? His post sounded like he was trying to put suspicions on me without actually comitting to have me lynched. Interested to hear your thoughts when you are finished catching up. | ||
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On May 03 2020 14:09 GlowingBear wrote: It's slightly explained in his filter but not a ton.I finished catching up and there's nothing much to talk about. Why is Koshi voting Shockey now? Who do you think is mafia currently? I know ShoCkeyy, still raynpelikoneet and Koshi? What about Alakaslam and the rest? | ||
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Looking forward to raynpelikoneet's thoughts. | ||
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On May 03 2020 19:12 Jockmcplop wrote: I woke up too early so I am likely going back to sleep. Still on my phone, I'll provide quotes at a later time.OK. Thanks for responding. I don't like this argument, at least I can't go along with it, because someone's emotional investment in the game is something you get to know about each individual player and I don't really know GB at all. If I was sure you were town I would be more likely to take your word for it, but I'm not. As for the other parts of your case: Point 1 does get my interest. Do you have quotes to back this up? Point 2 is actually the reason i was townreading GB to start with. I think he would have taken the opportunity to get a mislynch on me rather than just townreading me because I didn't vote. He's reacting to what is happening in the thread. I take it you think these reactions are not genuine looking. Is that because of bad reasoning or just a feeling you get? I don't feel like GlowingBear is responding to the thread with his reads, to me it feels more arbitrary. Like for you, there was no more chance to mislynch you, suspicion on you dropped. So he conveniently came up with (in my opinion) a weak reason to townread you. An awful reason, really. Still want to kill GlowingBear but I guess no one else agrees | ||
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And ShoCkeyy's too, for that matter. But I don't really want to vote with GlowingBear But maybe I should accept the possibility that I am wrong.Bleh, confusing game hurts my head | ||
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On May 04 2020 02:42 GlowingBear wrote: I don't know Trfel, consider I'm confirmed town. Is there any reason to not vote Shockey? I've periodically been falling asleep while reading Jockmcplop's filter and ShoCkeyy's filter and keeping up with the thread (primarily Grackaroni's posts).When I look at ShoCkeyy's play this game vs his play last game (as mafia), I've actually felt like they are different. This game I see ShoCkeyy coming up with new ideas and sticking with them, and that makes me think he may be town. I didn't read his meta the same way Grackaroni did, I think we are looking at different aspects of ShoCkeyy's play. I don't know what that means. | ||
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He hasn't really been pushing his own ideas, most of his posts are just commentary on other people's posts. It feels like he is "thread police," posting about the validity of other people's ideas, not making his own. And that scares me a lot. I don't know For now I think the difference is I don't want to vote with GlowingBear.##unvote ##vote Jockmcplop | ||
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On May 04 2020 02:58 GlowingBear wrote: Which one in particular? Sorry, you'll have to point me to what you are referring to. For the record the middle line of that paragraph wasn't meta but it doesn't really matter.You're considering meta only. What about my argument on Shockey? @Koshi, sorry I may very well change my vote. I will probably agonize about it until the deadline. Even though K am busy between now and then. | ||
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On May 04 2020 03:11 GlowingBear wrote: I don't really want to put words in ShoCkeyy's mouth, but it's understandable to me that mafia could use a night kill to try and implicate someone and wait for town to lead that wagon. I've seen it happen before (or even not happen if town didn't go that way). Honestly if mafia tries to use the night kill to implicate someone, I think that's the smart way to do it. You don't risk yourself if town doesn't bite.Alright. Assuming you're town: I was up to be mislynched day1. Kurumi died. I could very well be the lynch today. All mafia needed to do was to keep throwing suspicions at me. EoN1. FF is dead. Shockey sees it and throw a bit of suspicions at me by saying I am either mafia or mafia tried to frame me by killing FF. This surely makes people WIFOM about my alignment. In other words, could be mafia tried to guarantee my mislynch day2. When pressured, Shockey is a bit confused in what to answer. I keep pressuring him and he says that he believes I'm town and that I was framed because FF was killed. But he can't really explain how FF being killed could imply I could be mafia. But if he really believes in this, he would expect that anyone pushing me today is mafia. Because, if this is not the case, why would the mafia team try to frame me? For nothing? You suspected me. So you're probably the mafia he is looking for. But when pressured to say you alignment, he said you are NULL. This shows how faulty this logic is and that Shockey can't find good reasons for what he is been posting. Which means he is probably fabricating posts to fit his agenda. His intention in the beginning of day2 was to try to have a mislynch on me, but it didn't work. | ||
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##unvote ##vote ShoCkeyy | ||
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I've already described why I think you are mafia. Same with Jockmcplop. For the latter, in a sentence it's that he isn't providing original content, just commenting on what others say. Not "making waves," as Koshi would say. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 04 2020 04:07 Trfel wrote: Okay, sorry, I guess it's just mafia. You're allowed to think I am mafia.Why are you acting so antagonistic to me? I've already described why I think you are mafia. Same with Jockmcplop. For the latter, in a sentence it's that he isn't providing original content, just commenting on what others say. Not "making waves," as Koshi would say. I'm having lunch, and I have an exam to study for and take today. I'll be more active later tonight. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Let me know if anyone wants to talk, I'll be on and off between this and schoolwork. Before Rereading Town Vivax - Only other player who has been consistently present and trying to find mafia Maybe Town Grackaroni - Good thoughts on ShoCkeyy even if wrong, need to double check though Alakaslam - Seems like he is actually trying to solve the game Koshi - Effort, re-evaluating reads, trying to solve the game raynpelikoneet - Trying to solve the game, willing to work with people. Didn't make much of a fuss about ShoCkeyy getting lynched, need to re-evaluate this Maybe Mafia Chezinu - Very distant, disinterested Jockmcplop - Hiding in the background, not posting original thoughts/reads GlowingBear - Scumreads feel fabricated, doesn't seem to care about them 9 players left. 6 v 3. After the night kill it'll be 5 v 3, so that makes it MYLO currently. Lousy position to be in | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Reread Grackaroni's filter. I see no real reason for him to be mafia, but there's no reason to townread him either. His play is dominated by inactivity, only his push on ShoCkeyy in the last five hours is him actually playing mafia. He's pointed out some good things, but I feel like he's a decent enough scum player to be able to do this as mafia (have no factual basis for this though). If I am wrong on one of my scumreads, which is definitely possible, I would look at Grackaroni immediately. | ||
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I do think GlowingBear had a good day 2. I still think he is mafia. The times he has played well are both mafia motivated: first late day 1, when he needed to survive himself, and second late day 2, where he needed to protect a scumbuddy. Though that's unflipped association. I'm starting to think maybe Chezinu is not mafia. Maybe Grackaroni instead of Chezinu. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Volume 1 This post will be based around answering the following question: What has Jockmcplop actually contributed to this game? For example, let's analyze his first post of the game: (colors added) On April 29 2020 23:21 Jockmcplop wrote: The first portion, in red, is just a response to Vivax's post. Jockmcplop says that he noticed the similarities, but it doesn't make sense for raynpelikoneet to make that play as mafia. He says he kinda understands a slight point against raynpelikoneet but it is probably nothing. He says that my opening isn't meaningful unless I'm not present at convenient times.Hi everyone here's a catch up post: + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2020 16:45 Vivax wrote: im on phone formatting will keep it short. your case sounds an awful lot like you are implying that kurumi is doing what jock did in holy guardians except you did so at a time when trfel had at most 4 or 5 posts that didnt say much about his alignment. also again you are acting like you know my alignment from the start when ive been mostly shitposting before. ill play devils advocate with myself later but i find it odd atm that you and trfel didnt have the dejavus i had there. I remember the other game you are talking about and reading through the thread I did get flashbacks. I don't really get how you go from noticing the similarities to rayn having motivations other than scumhunting. Like you think rayn saw that trfel as lynchbait worked in the last game for town so he's leveraging the same idea as mafia and hoping that no-one will notice, with probably half the people playing in both games? I can't really see it. Its simpler just to think that trfel as lynchbait worked last time, kurumi wasn't here last time, rayn is thinking it might work again and get us a day 1 hit. The one thing I do agree with here is it looks like rayn is assuming you are town. I guess I can understand that based on meta (maaaaaaayyyyyybe), and he did say he townread you so its probably just a read more than an assumption. As for trfel's opening, stuff like that isn't really worth discussing unless he disappears at times that are overly convenient for mafia. + Show Spoiler + Is it bad or not? Let's let Team Liquid decide. On April 29 2020 05:41 GlowingBear wrote: This post is bad and you should feel bad for it. oh. @Glowingbear why is this such a bad post to you? I mean I don't agree with it really or see how it will have the intended effect but it doesn't seem so bad from an AI perspective @Kurumi: + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2020 07:48 Kurumi wrote: What do you mean? So far they've: -started the game out by saying they're going to be lazy -asked Alakaslam what does he mean with people giving excuses (see previous point, wut?) -asked me how I'm going to play and fished for whether I checked out the player roster for past games and meta -now questions GlowingBear about Vivax which is first "OK" thing. I have no idea why you're pushing back on Trfel so much given that all I've done is cast some shade on them. On April 29 2020 08:10 Kurumi wrote: Besides, bringing more information into the thread is never wrong, especially when we establish connections people have to each other based on their reactions and interactions. Would you say that trfel asking the questions he asked brought more information into the thread? I mean, I now know who you have played with before and am better able to judge the different way you might interact with me compared to say rayn... which is useful. What's the thing in common about all of this? It doesn't actually say anything! He commented on Vivax's post, but in the end he said nothing whatsoever about Vivax's alignment, or raynpelikoneet's, or mine, or Kurumi's. Read the rest of the post too. It's two questions that don't say anything about the alignments of anyone (at least, not yet). These trends are prominent throughout Jockmcplop's play this game, and are the primary reason that I read Jockmcplop as mafia. He is commenting and being present, but he's not thinking about the game or about people's alignments. He makes pretty posts, but the posts don't contain original content and thinking. Let's take a look at all of the exceptions to this, all of the times where Jockmcplop provides actual reads (actually alignment-indicative conclusions): + Show Spoiler [Analysis] + On April 29 2020 23:47 Jockmcplop wrote: He comments on Alakaslam's wishy-washyness and says it's scummy, fair point. And he comments on a Kurumi inconsistency, doesn't directly say anything about Kurumi's alignment, but it's implied to be suspicious. Fair enough, nothing blatantly wrong here.alakaslam: + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2020 10:09 Alakaslam wrote: Gonna have to side with Kurumi on the logic train. Defend yourself, not others, even when scum. Because it be scummy until the town begins wearing trousers on their head. Then defense the ally. On April 29 2020 15:17 Alakaslam wrote: Stuff getting really strangely simple. Like straight up people make excuse = they is scum. If Vivax is right. But it is funny, Trfel being more active than anyone else post excuse has me feeling townie on him even though it literally points scummier than before. Like, my head and my gut disagree I find these posts pretty scummy, like you want to agree with Kurumi but then want to back out for some reason. You seem so sure in one post and unsure in the next. Kurumi's logic train very much had to do with his suspicions on trfel and you seemed sure about it but then next thing you're like "yeah but maybe not." and that's it. Also, Kurumi's logic, I pointed out above why its bad logic. On the one hand, he says that all trfel has done is ask questions, but trfel's questions brought more information into the thread, which Kurumi says is 'never bad'. I don't think Kurumi is using consistent scumhunting logic here in going after trfel. On April 30 2020 00:42 Jockmcplop wrote: No conclusion about Kurumi's alignment, but at least he's showing suspicions.I don't know whether to disagree with you or scumread you. I can't see how you've had such a reaction to rayn and trfel questioning how you started the game. You seem genuinely pissed off and i don't get why. Trfel's post is one that you see in about 70% of game openings and sometimes its a town post; sometimes its a mafia post, but you really can't tell from whether someone follows up on day 1 by being exactly as active as they said they would. I also really don't buy this theory that rayn and trfel are mafia coming after you for pinging trfel. Mafia are probably trying to hide or just watch right now. Maybe one of them is, but both, like this on day one? Nah On May 01 2020 20:12 Jockmcplop wrote: Even though GlowingBear did something suspicious, he's probably a townlean. Fine. Then he produces original content to townread ShoCkeyy and suspect Fecalfeast. This portion, while not perfect, is actually a good post.+ Show Spoiler + On May 01 2020 03:39 Trfel wrote: I don't know, honestly I never understood "mindmeld" stuff. To me, agreeing with someone or having the same thoughts as someone never means they are confirmed town or anything like that. Yes, I think GlowingBear could be wrong on Kurumi as town. I don't see why not? Here's how I see the 'mindmeld' thing. Its entirely meta based, or should be, from a town perspective. There's one guy on MU who reliably mindmelds with me on day 1 more than once if we're both town. Like every single game. If it happens, I know to townread him. Townreading someone off a mindmeld just because they said what you are thinking is absolutely terrible imo. If that's how you see the game, mafia just needs to make educated guesses at how you are seeing the game and get easy townreads. I do like how GB reevaluated his read on me though, it would have been super easy for him to keep pushing a SR on me, especially because I still hadn't posted at that point, so even though i see his early townread on kurumi as a bit suspicious, he's probably a town lean for me. also @glowingbear: + Show Spoiler + the two koshi posts, although I don't need to, I feel I should explain. The first post was a joke with a joke vote. You probably think that's stupid, fair enough. The second post was sarcasm, as trfel pointed out. There was no way I could hard scumread koshi from what he had posted so far in the thread, i was being sarcastic. read this again carefully from the perspective that I am being sarcastic: Nah I genuinely thought he was mafia after his one post and shockeyy saying that post made him mafia. I was convinced. I get now that responding to people not understanding a joke vote with sarcasm that people might also not understand isn't smart. I take responsibility for that. ------------ About shockeyy: At first I really liked Fefe pushing that post of shockeyy's. I was almost scumreading shockeyy based on him simply not explaining the post at all, and it not really making sense from most points of view that I could summon up. However, I think that's a really superficial reading and yes I'm sussing Fefe because of that. That post does make sense if you consider that shockeyy is scumreading the people who started both wagons (koshi and slam) before he made this post, and also sussing other people who are on the wagons. I think its consistent with his previous reads that he would see the two wagons as containing two obvious scum. His vote was on koshi and he SRs slam who started a wagon on him. If you look at shockeyy's other reads it also makes sense to think that if one of koshi/slam is not scum, then someone else on the wagons would be. TL:DR Shockeyy's 'two scum on these wagons' post makes perfect sense in the context of his other reads. I think I actually townread shockeyy for this. Quotes to support: + Show Spoiler + First he suspects Fefe + Show Spoiler + On May 01 2020 03:01 ShoCkeyy wrote: Rayn, please just re-read the thread and the interactions between GB and Koshi. I feel like most people here don't read and just base decisions on others decisions. I'm putting pressure on Slam, because I personally think that Koshi and Slam are partners. Could Jock be in there? sure? But what GB is saying about Koshi relieving pressure on Jock is true. I personally hope that Jock didn't roll mafia again, but that Koshi play right there can be two things. True mafia work, or town work. Slam voting me, 15 mins after not wanting to vote for me screams setup play between the two for D2. He already scumreads koshi and slam + Show Spoiler + On May 01 2020 03:09 ShoCkeyy wrote: GlowingBear: (3) Koshi, FecalFeast, Vivax ShoCkeyy: (3) Alakaslam, Trfel, Raynpelikoneet There's an obvious two mafia here. The third one can also be here, or just not voting, on some one else. But I definitely suspect two mafia here. Sorry Rayn, but I can't trust you on this. Given how probability works, and I know I'm not mafia; there's a very good and strong chance mafia is lined up here to lynch some one. Then he makes this post. He suspects that slam and koshi are partners. However, he also suspects Fefe. From this its easy to see why he thinks that there's two scum on these wagons, unless you haven't looked in his ISO or read his posts properly. On May 01 2020 21:00 Jockmcplop wrote: Suddenly a scumread on Koshi. Fair enough I guess.I think koshi/fefe is mafia. They independently seem scummy. Koshi for his EoD with kurumi as explained above and Fefe for his push on shockeyy which only takes a brief look at shockeyy's reads and filter to debunk. Add to that Koshi hard townreading Fefe in a way that looks like it could never change and Fefe barely mentioning koshi in his 5 page filter except to pressure shockeyy about his scumread on koshi. On May 01 2020 21:13 Jockmcplop wrote: Light suspicions of Alakaslam. Sure.+ Show Spoiler + On April 29 2020 09:45 Alakaslam wrote: Meh, NAI but also unnecessary. Just kinda bad. I cant always be here, I don’t have to go on and on about my daily teaching schedule or coronavirus actually making me busier and whatnot. I just show up when I can. Because I’m town, and therefore dont give a shit what people think. On May 01 2020 03:31 Alakaslam wrote: I dont care about my image I care about finding scum. If you want to waste your vote on me then go ahead and do it. On May 01 2020 05:25 Alakaslam wrote: “Slam you shit at scum, cant you see? How can you be this stupid slam?” Trash your vote then, you all ready know I dont give a cuss what you think of my alignment or anyone else for that matter, if I get lynched I get lynched. Go back to being productive and stop insulting my scum play. If slam really doesn't care what people think shouldn't that come through in his posting without him having to tell us twice a day that he doesn't care? Honestly the way he went off at people for (in slam's view) insinuating that he might be a sloppy mafia player really makes me think he's just overcompensating for mafia paranoia. On May 02 2020 18:49 Jockmcplop wrote: Fecalfeast flipping town messes up his reads, he needs to rethink them. Makes sense given his reads and explanations.I mean, don't wait for this.. Fefe dying makes me question my koshi read alot, which in turn makes me question my other reads. I have to decide whether i still think shockeyy is town, because I was basing most of my reads on that one. I need to filter 4-5 players today though before i know where i'm at. On May 03 2020 00:09 Jockmcplop wrote: List post! Little actual content, though.So these are the people that are implicated/framed by the Fefe kill. Here's how I was on them before Fefe's kill: town shockeyy town lean GB null: chez grack scum slam I think i'm more likely to townlean grack now just because of his attitude and tone. GB stays where he is. I'm really not convinced of trfel's case on him at all. In fact I flat out disagree with it. Which leaves chez and slam in the null/scum sections. This makes me uncomfortable, they aren't two players who I want to build a view of the game on assuming their alignment, as they are both very difficult to read. I think shockeyy is the most important player right now. I'm gonna go and reread all the reasons people have for scumreading him. I already said why i disagree with Fefe's reasons for scumreading shockeyy and his flip doesn't change my reasoning there at all. I still have a strong feeling that koshi and shockeyy are opposite alignments. On May 03 2020 00:30 Jockmcplop wrote: Most of this post, until the last paragraph, says nothing at all. The last paragraph says that ShoCkeyy is town because there is no reason for him to be mafia.So the people who voted shockeyy are slam, trfel and rayn. Rayn voted him because he didn't like shockeyy trying to lynch koshi, but rayn also backed down pretty quickly and went for people he was more strongly scumreading (some town points to rayn for this by the way). Slam's reason seems to be about a beef with shockeyy and the way shockeyy has called him mafia alot. I'm using a particular post slam made to me about it for reference as to slam's reasoning. Trfel seems like rayn, kind of not really bothered about lynching shockeyy: Possibly just seeing what would happen with the wagon if he voted there. His point about saying he voted koshi for a pressure vote and also saying koshi's opening was mafia is the only thing i agree looks bad here. I disagree with drawing conclusions from how shockeyy was voting slam while GB was up for lynch. I don't think that looks bad on shockeyy and he never showed interest in particularly trying to save GB, but was voting for a scumread. I still think shockeyy is town here. I just can't see any case for him being mafia except his early thing with the read on koshi, and that's nowhere near enough to scumread him when his reads have been consistent, and consistent with his voting also. And that's it. Jockmcplop is a very strong town player, but the overall sum of his content this game is extremely underwhelming. Conclusion Jockmcplop is posting a lot of words with very little substance. His reads are backed up with minimal reasoning, and there isn't much original thought in his filter. Most of his posts are full of filler and commentary, without actual conclusions or meaningful analysis. He is more interested in surviving than trying to find mafia. | ||
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Trfel
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Volume 2
It's not the strongest case, but I think there are some valid reasons to at least consider GlowingBear as mafia here. I don't know how this read would associate with Jockmcplop; on one hand GlowingBear wouldn't play like he would Day 1 with Jockmcplop being mafia, but the way he changes reads and townreads Jockmcplop easily later would make sense if they are both mafia. But the main point is that I think GlowingBear could easily still be mafia. | ||
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Appreciate feedback/thoughts on my reads on Jockmcplop and GlowingBear above. Also willing to talk about who else may be mafia (leaning towards Grackaroni, but open to possibilities for sure). | ||
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On May 04 2020 14:22 GlowingBear wrote: Okay. I'll assume you are not mafia. What do you think about my post on Jockmcplop?Hi I can talk | ||
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On May 04 2020 14:45 GlowingBear wrote: What I'm saying is, Jockmcplop effectively has only made nine posts this game. Nine.Trfel, the reason you call jock mafia are immediately thrown away when you point out every other post where he talks about people alignment. In my opinion, he was having genuine reads based on information that was posted in thread, while not taking the easy step of immediately calling me mafia. He was the first one to think I was town, against thread sentiment. It's like how geript reads me. As annoying as it is, has Jockmcplop said anything smart this game? Has he shown his towniness? He hasn't, and that makes him mafia. I could go through literally every other post Jockmcplop made and show why it doesn't say anything helpful. I can if that'd be helpful, I felt like I didn't need to though... Jockmcplop's filter is available for everyone to see on their own. | ||
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On May 04 2020 15:00 GlowingBear wrote: He said he had a medical emergency, not voting would have happened as either alignment.There's also the fact that Jock didn't vote day1 and I hardly believe mafia would just peace out without dropping a vote anywhere. But I promise I'll check his filter tomorrow and analyse him better. It's just I'm not seeing what you're seeing here. Is there anything you ask me? You're certainly town. We need to work together. I don't know, honestly. I'm sorry I'm lazy, remind me who you think is mafia? | ||
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On May 04 2020 15:16 GlowingBear wrote: ShoCkeyy for a brief moment, I think Jockmcplop or you before that.i forgot who rayn was voting day1 before the kurumi thing? I could see raynpelikoneet maybe being mafia here, I need to reread him at some point. Why weren't you convinced by Alakaslam's EoD2? It seemed about average to me. | ||
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On May 04 2020 15:25 GlowingBear wrote: Fair enough, good night.Gotta sleep, Trfel. We'll talk tomorrow. Gn. | ||
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On May 05 2020 04:26 Alakaslam wrote: Care to explain why?He was actually the cop Wow. Ok well I was pretty convinced you were scum. Honestly I'd be super proud if I could play like this as mafia, haha... | ||
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Chezinu Grackaroni Town? Vivax Koshi Mafia? Alakaslam Mafia Jockmcplop GlowingBear | ||
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However, so did raynpelikoneet. Trust raynpelikoneet. Vote Jockmcplop. | ||
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What are your thoughts on me? | ||
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How's life been the past few years? I guess it's been quite a while since we really talked. | ||
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On May 05 2020 12:52 GlowingBear wrote: I thought Chezinu's was a joke?So did Slam? Also, Chez didn't claim. @Chez, are you a blue role? I'm horrid about people hinting at roles and subtleties and things. I guess I'll take another look at it, but raynpelikoneet obviously saw something, so I think that's a valid point. | ||
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On May 05 2020 13:02 Grackaroni wrote: Ah, thanks, that makes sense.Chez has been role playing as the federal reserve/doctor. I agree if someone else is blue they should claim. Chezinu = blue | ||
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On May 05 2020 13:24 Grackaroni wrote: Fair enough, makes sense. If Jockmcplop were to come back and be a shining light of towniness, do you know who you would lynch then?I think Rayn is right Jockmcplop has been underwhelming and the possible mafia are getting narrowed down. I still think you could be mafia but Rayn/you both seem to be acting like your play this game is outside of your mafia range and I don't think I would go against that. I'd guess Koshi as well since he isn't obvious town. He's usually the cockiest player and during the night he was blaming me for misleading him as a beacon of smartness. Most of the time Koshi/Rayn should have died ahead of FF. I'd never lynch Vivax. | ||
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On May 05 2020 13:45 GlowingBear wrote: Glad to hear! It makes sense, I'm really glad you are doing better, hopefully you can continue to recover. Mostly stress from work?Oh I just saw this post. Yes, I'm feeling better. I was just under some major stress and saturday I had some kind of breakdown. Fortunately, it helped me a lot. Still feeling headaches and muscular pain but it's a bit less. Last few years was tough. I had a big life crisis three years ago. And here I am now thank you for asking, Trfel. What about you?Btw, Trfel, I coached you once, didn't I? Glad you made it through! I guess I'm kinda in a life crisis currently, I think I am going to go back to school and try and get a different degree. So that will be fun, more school.... Yes, I think you coached me twice, actually! Which is why my play early in the game can tend to be similar to yours (to get discussion started). I think I've improved my read accuracy significantly over the last few years, ironically the rest of my play has gotten worse over the same time, but ah well. I appreciate your willingness to help and offer advice | ||
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On May 05 2020 14:02 Grackaroni wrote: I majored in Mechanical Engineering before, I'm planning on going back for Computer Science. The prerequisites overlap, so it'll only be another two and a half years or so...What are you going to study? My life is fucked too lol. How so? | ||
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On May 05 2020 14:04 Grackaroni wrote: Ah, yeah Oh nice. I majored in math and have no experience for anything. I'm stuck tutoring at least until Covid passes. I think I may try to get into Computer Science too. How does tutoring work during the coronavirus time? I imagine it would be a lot harder to find new people to tutor...And that'd be cool! It ought to be a good career for getting employed and staying employed | ||
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On May 05 2020 14:09 Grackaroni wrote: Huh, surprised, that's pretty cool though! I assume that's a good thing for you? HahaActually busier than before. There's a lot of people looking to fill in missing school time. | ||
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On May 05 2020 14:11 GlowingBear wrote: Unfortunately I'm not very strong Dude, we learn A LOT from life crisis. You have to be strong, though. If you're resilient enough, you'll see that you're stronger than you think. And will be more able to deal with problems. May I ask what did you graduate at? Yeah, I realized we have similar playstyles I believe I changed a bit since I stopped playing, anyway. Your style is good, PADAWAN APPROVED I've been dealing with quite a bit of depression these past few years, it's been making life quite difficult. Hopeful that things can start to improve though!Aw, thanks I appreciate it! I didn't realize you officially stopped, are you just playing now because of the virus or what? And if I may, how did your style change? | ||
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On May 05 2020 14:15 Grackaroni wrote: Hey, at least you have prospects right now Yeah for the moment but there's no long-term prospects there. If you do decide to move into computer science I hope it works out for you! It seems like you have a good mind for it though, you seem to reason pretty well. And it's impressive you can do math, I could never be a math major haha. Once things get too far past calculus I can't really keep up anymore. | ||
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On May 05 2020 14:15 GlowingBear wrote: Yeah, we can talk about the game too if you want + Show Spoiler + Grack Chez (if really blue) Trfel jock Vivax Slam Koshi This is where I'm at atm, from a PoE list. It doesn't make sense. I assume that's from towniest to scummiest?Why Vivax so low, if I may? I don't recall seeing much on him in your filter (though I am forgetful)? | ||
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On May 05 2020 14:20 GlowingBear wrote: Unfortunately mine is clinical, I've been in therapy and psychiatry for years and even a hospital stay from it I've dealt with depression too. If it's not clinical (definitely go see a psychiatrist), then a therapist and physical exercise will help you deal with it. Still today I fight it a bit. Once I feel depression coming, I accept it and work with it. The black dog stuff is a nice way to portrait depression. Yes, I came back because of the virus. I thought "okay, maybe a good time to play mafia". My style changed because I became way less emotional and paranoid. So, that's good What do you mean by the black dog stuff?I only came back because of the virus too, honestly I've been enjoying it though. Fun game, fun people Even once this ends, consider coming back every once in a while! It'd be too bad if you stopped permanently. Though I guess everyone does eventually...Haha, sounds good ^^ But paranoia is so much fun! | ||
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On May 05 2020 14:25 GlowingBear wrote: Hm, that makes sense for Vivax. I'm just surprised you have him even lower than Jockmcplop, in my eyes Jockmcplop hasn't done anything particularly towny either? (not that I don't think Vivax is town)Yes, that's the problem. I think Vivax is town, but he came at that point in a order of preference. His posts seems okay and he is pretty reasonable, but I can't remember anything he did that made me think "okay, town". I don't even know what his scumreads are. I thought shockey was mafia and that he might be with you, he wasn't. I thought rayn was mafia, he dies on night 2. I thought Chez might be mafia, but he might be blue. So, basically, I've townread all survivors. I'm trying to do the opposite of what I usually do: search for mafia and go for it recklessly. It's MYLO, so I need to think about possible teams and who I think are actually town. This order of preference puts Vivax, Slam and Koshi as possible mafia. But it doesn't make sense because I have reasons to townread all of them. Do you think this team is possible? Honestly right now I don't see any team but you, Jockmcplop, and likely Alakaslam. Your team makes sense though, it explains the night 1 kill fairly well and I don't believe any of the three interacted together a ton. | ||
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On May 05 2020 14:27 GlowingBear wrote: If I may, what kind of involvement with theater? And thanks, I really do appreciate it I didn't had time because I started working with theater too. And when you're in rehearsals, it's impossible to play mafia. But anyway, let's see what happens after this coronavirus stuff. Maybe I keep playing. Thanks for that good to know I'm welcome. Know that this is reciprocal.The more I think about it, the more your team does make sense. In some ways it makes more sense than my team. For example, I think it's weird putting you and Jockmcplop as mafia together, given how you went after Jockmcplop's joke vote so solidly and for so long. And I don't have many good reasons for Alakaslam to be mafia besides POE But for some reason it still feels like it has to be right. | ||
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On May 05 2020 14:35 GlowingBear wrote: That does make sense, unfortunately it only works if you are town Trfel, I'm not mafia. I saw jock hard defending me day2 and there was no need for him to do that. Mafia jock would jump at ANY counterwagon. You threw suspicions at me so it was natural that, if jock is mafia, they would support your case and go against me. But they didn't. Jock didn't. I can't see him not going against me as mafia. Which leads to mafia being satisfied with the people up for the lynch. They didn't care day2. I'll re-read day2 tomorrow and see who is not caring much for the lynch. Maybe I can start from there. Is there any other reason to townread Jockmcplop that you have? From my experience, when I read someone based off only one reason it can be very susceptible to mistakes/unexpected mafia behavior. I will take a look at what you are saying though. Given your team, mafia didn't care about the Day 1 lynch either, no? | ||
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On May 05 2020 14:41 GlowingBear wrote: You know, those are good reasons. Better than mine. Fair enough.I do almost everything in theater, I've been an actor, playwright, producer, you name it. But mainly, stage director. It's a second career as I don't earn almost anything with it rofl. The only reason I have to believe slam COULD be mafia is his wishy washiness, his lack of involvement in decisive moments. He being upset with shockey being lynch felt way too forced, he didn't seem to carry that much about what was happening during the day. But that's all. Also, impressive! That's super cool | ||
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And I'm sorry, I read through Jockmcplop's filter, I don't really see what you are saying. You said, day 2 he townread you when he could have scumread you? But I don't understand why that makes him town? First, he wasn't up for lynch. I don't believe he was strongly pushed that day, though I guess I could double check this. Given that ShoCkeyy was town, there was never much risk of mafia getting lynched. And second, I was the only person who tried to push you Day 2, I wouldn't call that a viable wagon at all. | ||
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On May 05 2020 15:07 Chezinu wrote: That's a fair point, I do likes the teddy.Ok, but really... how can you hate on a glowing fluffy teddy bear!?!? Didn't you want to kill the teddy last game though? | ||
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Fair enough Chezinu. May I one day see the way you see. | ||
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Are you feeling better/have you recovered okay? | ||
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On May 05 2020 15:14 Chezinu wrote: That does make sense. And fair enough, I'd like to be able to see as you see in addition to how I see though I don't know. Well, I coded fully time for 2 years... stack that on gaming.. I can type decently. Oh, I am also not planning any evil schemes.. so it makes posting faster. I'm not sure that you would want to see the way that I see. There are much better ways to see. I do have a color blindness with the red,blue roles. I don't know everything. I sometimes need a Light to help guide me. Too see much clearer. Perhaps you will see far clearer than me one day. But that is to assume that I see clearer than you... That was be an assumption that I would not know since I don't see the way you see. It seems like such a fun way to view things.@GlowingBear, no idea how you got me to get out of bed and go to my computer so I could verify something for a scumread that relies on them not being mafia, but you did, haha. | ||
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On May 05 2020 15:19 Jockmcplop wrote: Glad to hear! Sorry you can't sleep, you can get through though. We always say over here, sleep is for the weak XDYes I feel alot better thanks Pretty exhausted cos I can't sleep at the moment but just about keeping it together lol. I'm sorry to hear about your depression. I went through that for over ten years and it still haunts me every day but we get through it. I hope you keep playing after the lockdowns are over, its always a pleasure. Thanks, yeah depression is no fun. I'm sorry you have had to experience it And yes I will try and keep playing I think, if there are still games going. I really enjoyed that one game we had a while ago where raynpelikoneet was mafia, we worked so well together that one day where we both scumread him (day 2 I think it was?). Losing that one kinda left a bitter taste in my mouth, so I wanted to play with you again and win together. Unfortunately we just can't seem to both be town | ||
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Same here Glad to hear it! | ||
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On May 05 2020 15:26 GlowingBear wrote: You silenced everything Jock, updated reads pls Yeah, I'll go to bed soon, but how can I go to bed when you guys are having so much fun? | ||
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On May 05 2020 15:02 GlowingBear wrote: Is it fair to assume that Day 2 only really started Sunday evening PDT (when raynpelikoneet returned, Vivax voted off of raynpelikoneet, people started coming back to the thread, it was more than just me and Vivax playing the game, etc.)? Before then I'd say it's too hard to say who was going to be lynched. However, Jockmcplop defended GlowingBear before then, making this a lot harder... Here is where Jockmcplop first says he still townreads GlowingBear on Day 2.If it wasn't for Shockey being lynched, jock would be, no? That's how I remember it. Now, if this is the case, consider these assumptions: mafia!jock is getting some votes on him. mafia!jock sees that town!Trfel posted a case on town!GB. Why would mafia!jock defend town!GB when himself is piling votes? It doesn't make sense from a mafia perspective. Also, even if mafia!jock takes the path of defending me to get towncred, why didn't any other mafia agree with your case to throw suspicions on me? My answer is that every name up for the lynch was fine for mafia. Which implies jock is town. And here is the votecount at the time: On May 02 2020 23:14 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Again, not helpful. Vivax was townreading GlowingBear at this time though, for not voting to save himself at the end of Day 1. Koshi also called GlowingBear town well before this. I'm not sure what raynpelikoneet thought.Day 2 - BRRRR.MONEY COUNT Votes: ShoCkeyy: (1) Koshi GlowingBear: (1) Trfel raynpelikoneet: (0) Trfel: (0) Not Voting: Chezinu, ShoCkeyy, Grackaroni, Vivax, Alakaslam, Jockmcplop, raynpelikoneet, GlowingBear ShoCkeyy is set to be lynched with 1 vote. until End of Day Conclusion Two thread leaders (Koshi and Vivax) townread GlowingBear well before Jockmcplop confirmed his townread on GlowingBear. Therefore I don't believe that GlowingBear's reason to townread Jockmcplop is valid (even if GlowingBear is town). GlowingBear, thoughts? | ||
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On May 05 2020 15:33 GlowingBear wrote: Yeesh Don't worry, I'm going now It's 3:30Am here Well in the morning I wouldn't mind a response to my analysis of your Jockmcplop townread. I'm probably still going to think you are mafia, but just curious to see how it changes things. If it'd get you to re-evaluate/bus Jockmcplop I wouldn't mind. | ||
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On May 05 2020 15:36 Jockmcplop wrote: In all honesty? I see no reason to lynch Chezinu now. I think there's a pretty good chance he's a role, he may not be, but there is no counterclaim. There are almost certainly two town power roles in the game, I haven't seen a game with only one (of 12-13 player size) well, ever. If Chezinu is mafia, his play is bound to be found out as soon as someone else claims, so it's not a good play to make. This means that Chezinu is very likely a town power role, and very likely town.At the moment town: Jock Grack GB null: slam Mafia chez koshi vivax/trfel I'm starting to think slam is town. He's still null rather than a townread, but his tone today isn't one that I can see in his mafia meta and i've looked at all of his mafia games in the archive. He's annoyed and sounds defeated, which i didn't see at all in his meta. He's also been quick to take things personally the whole game and I don't see that much in his mafia meta either. Can I ask why everyone is quick to TR chez? I know he has claimed again but he has claimed like three or four times different roles this game. Why do you believe him unconditionally now with no evidence when you didn't believe him before. It looks more like PR hunting to me. The clincher is that it's not town's problem, it's mafia's problem. Town can wait until there is one mafia left to worry about Chezinu, if it comes down to it. Since he's likely a role, mafia can't wait. They have to figure out how to deal with him sooner. So it's best to keep him alive I know, not the answer you wanted to hear, but it's the best I can do. | ||
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On May 05 2020 15:45 Jockmcplop wrote: But that's not a worry of mine...Given that if you lynch me its game over. If you are town though, can't you convince me to lynch someone other than Chezinu? If you are town and even if Chezinu is somehow mafia, there are still two more mafia to lynch today. It doesn't have to be Chezinu. | ||
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Sorry, not really feeling lynching those two right now | ||
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On May 05 2020 16:07 Chezinu wrote: + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler + Dear God, Master troller of all men. A great fisher of men. As Psalm 2 says, you laugh. So help us Lord in this time of trolling. It is said you care even about the sparrows and are willing to give children scraps to dogs. For your scraps, yes your food, are great! Give us our daily bread to your beloved children and feed our spirit with the Bread of Life. For He is the source and we are the branches. Let your Holy Spirit continue to speak with our spirit as we abide in you. So, help us Lord. Help us find the last mafias. Give Mr. Truffle clear vision to see what he needs to see. Also, eliminate his depression so he can laugh at what is to come. Help us troll the truth by the authority of Jesus Christ, let it be done. Amen! Thanks Chezinu, I appreciate it Though is prayer to help find mafia legal? I'd think it would give us quite the advantage... | ||
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But seriously, just lynching his other scumread.Koshi, can I ask why you think Jockmcplop is town? | ||
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On May 05 2020 16:30 Chezinu wrote: + Show Spoiler +In all sincerity, I prayed to God in a mafia game before. It was a season in life where God was showing me that he even cared about the little things and he was present. That game was Mini Mafia II, where I DT'ed checked two mafia players in a row. I never told anyone here in TL mafia about that though. God kept revealing himself to me during that time period. It was a time where I sought him the most. Years later, I went through different seasons where I had to learn to trust God even when I didn't hear him. Not pleasant times, especially when you get use to him speaking to you almost daily. But fortunately that season ended. Even during that time, God was still show up and it wasn't as often. Trials. FYI, I had a clinical depression in high school that lasted 6 months. Never went to the doctor since I was in high school. Too young for medication. I remember that I couldn't even taste food. I just ate to eat. Didn't find any enjoyment in playing games. I just went through the routine. The funny thing was that I was running cross country at that time. I remember the physical pain of running was nothing compared to what I was feeling. I ended making my best times that year. God was with me during that time, although I was depressed. Afterwards, the depression ended before summer and I remember having so much fun playing WOW. Everything was working again. It was great. Makes you thankful looking back. Nice, that's really encouraging, thank you so much for sharing! Sorry to hear you had to deal with depression I am glad you were able to recover though!! Life is hard for me right now, but I can see God is teaching me through it and I'll come out stronger on the other side.As for mafia, God sure is helpful, but we also have two cops Or perhaps the second cop is God's gift? | ||
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On May 05 2020 16:42 Koshi wrote: And if last is between me and gb I know the answer but hey that will be up to Vivax to decide. What about me, I get to decide too In all seriousness though, I'd be happy to talk about Jockmcplop. I do strongly believe he is mafia but honestly I don't really know why. And it would be not ideal to mislynch right now. My main argument is activity and fluff in the filter, it feels like he's burnt out from rolling mafia twice in a row. I do think my case on him was pretty good, I know most of it was the exceptions to my case so it doesn't feel strong, but read Jockmcplop's filter and look for what his reads are (not just thoughts, reads) and I think that is telling. A quality post has reads and well thought explanations, and Jockmcplop does not have many of those at all. But again, I am very happy to discuss this, it's quite important. | ||
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On May 05 2020 16:45 Koshi wrote: Hm, why isn't it a win? If you agree with raynpelikoneet's reads, and you are town, mafia is GlowingBear, Jockmcplop, and Alakaslam. Doesn't matter that we are in MYLO as long as we know who is mafia.Town 99% certain lost. | ||
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On May 05 2020 16:50 Koshi wrote: Fair enough, I'm mostly just bored, haha. Sorry if I am keeping you from something or if you don't feel like playing.No need to discuss. Just vote. Information is in the thread. No need to create more. | ||
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On May 05 2020 16:51 Koshi wrote: Hm, I guess I didn't think about that :/"Confirmed" There is a potential framer and a gf. | ||
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On May 05 2020 16:55 Koshi wrote: Fair enough, I'm sorry it's not fun anymore No no. I am fine being here but I cant do analysis or play this game. The fun has been drained out. I really only enjoy d1 tbh. I used to be good at that. Maybe if gb is mafia that is a bit redeeming. But I am far from sure atm. I struggle at Day 1's, I wish I could be good at them. Teach me your secrets ^^ | ||
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On May 05 2020 16:55 Koshi wrote: Oops Purposely forgot because you are mafia with Grack. Gave it away | ||
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On May 05 2020 22:22 Vivax wrote: Fair enough, thanks. That makes sense.It doesn't matter to me. One to me is confirmed scum, the other is a guaranteed loss for town if he's town so we might as well lynch jock because lynching chez just buys us more time to lynch jock. If you catch my meaning, I'd take the riskier lynch today even over confirmed scum because if Jock is town we most likely lose even if we lynch scum now. | ||
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I thought Chezinu was very likely town, I guess I assumed far too quickly. Thanks for pointing that out.I take it you consider Grackaroni confirmed town then? | ||
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On May 05 2020 22:43 Vivax wrote: Fair enough, that makes sense. Thanks.There's no point considering that he isn't because of framers, godfathers, fairies and unicorns and everything else at this point in the game. If he is, someone else can break his head over this later. But with 3 mafia left, what's the point of doubting the checked guy first? Look for the other two at least if you think Grack is scum. | ||
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Current is 5 v 3. Lynch mafia, 5 v 2. Night kill, 4 v 2 MYLO. | ||
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On May 06 2020 04:40 GlowingBear wrote: There were no votes in between the vote count and the post I linked. We are talking about Day 2, right?That's not the impression I had. Are you sure this was the current votes in thread and no vote was cast on him? | ||
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Please please please, if you're going to change your vote or do something stupid, do it before then? Cool? | ||
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But Koshi admitted to lynching a townread. Why isn't that worse? I'm not saying what Vivax said isn't bad, but Koshi's statement is worse, no? | ||
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On May 06 2020 08:38 GlowingBear wrote: Huh, interesting. I guess I never thought about it like that.Although I think Koshi is mafia because of what him said, at least I can understand a townie self doubting himself and voting accordingly thread sentiment - what I can't understand is having a top scumread and not going against it in MYLO. Have you had a chance to re-evaluate Jockmcplop yet? Not trying to rush you, just wondering. | ||
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On May 06 2020 09:02 GlowingBear wrote: Yeah, I suppose it's possible for sure. I don't think those players have talked about each other much at all.No, I'll still give it a thought. I'm still working but do you believe a team of Koshi/Vivax/Jock is possible? | ||
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On May 06 2020 09:48 Chezinu wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Vivax | ||
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Chezinu, if you do return, it's critically important that you answer if you will be here tomorrow or not. There's some information I would very much like to tell you. | ||
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On May 06 2020 11:10 Chezinu wrote: Is there any way I can convince you to switch back to Jockmcplop?I'm still here | ||
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On May 06 2020 11:13 Trfel wrote: I'll be here on and off for the next few hours, I'll be taking a sauna with my dad (shout-out to raynpelikoneet!).Is there any way I can convince you to switch back to Jockmcplop? Look at the associations between the GlowingBear, Jockmcplop, and Alakaslam team. Notice how Alakaslam is trying to vote anyone other than Jockmcplop, despite having Jockmcplop in his POE list. See how GlowingBear townread Jockmcplop Day 2 despite having no reason to do so (I think a page or two ago I showed why his reasons are invalid). Note Jockmcplop's lack of involvement and desire to play this game. He's a very strong town player, and I know he'd have more pushback against his lynch and throughout the game than this. As it is now, the lynch comes down to a race. Grackaroni said he won't ever lynch Vivax, Jockmcplop will definitely vote to save himself. I'd rather seal the lynch of Jockmcplop and worry about the rest later. In the end it's your decision, but if you've made up your mind I'd appreciate it if you let me know is all. Otherwise I'm highly confident that Jockmcplop is mafia and I believe he should be the lynch today. | ||
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On May 06 2020 11:36 Chezinu wrote: In my opinion the top mafia suspects are GlowingBear, Alakaslam, and Jockmcplop. So no, I find everything very normal. I see Vivax and Koshi as almost certainly town.I think paying me is against the rules. Do you fine it weird that the top mafia suspects are voting with you? I'd pay you if I could | ||
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On May 06 2020 12:04 Chezinu wrote: Chezinu ok, confession time... Guys, I did not role check Grack. I just said he was town with a question mark because he acknowledge my role Day 1 and the mafia didn't kill me. I really thought you were town | ||
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On May 06 2020 12:58 GlowingBear wrote: They're not, but I'm not sure (1) why it matters and (2) what makes you say that?This proves all your reads are basically associative. | ||
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On May 06 2020 13:08 GlowingBear wrote: I strongly believe that Jockmcplop is mafia.Your reads resides in jock being mafia, then I'm mafia for that, then whoever I read as scum is town. If you re-evaluate Jockmcplop, I will re-evaluate you. Deal? | ||
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On May 06 2020 13:17 GlowingBear wrote: Can I ask why?Alright. I believe Jock could be mafia but I don't want to vote him today. Your turn. | ||
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Vote to lynch Jockmcplop, save Vivax? | ||
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On May 06 2020 13:21 GlowingBear wrote: Well, I reread your filter. Admittedly fairly quickly, but I did.Because although I think my point about him townreading me instead on jumping right away to kill me isn't valid anymore, I still believe his posts sounds townish enough so I wouldn't risk killing him today. I'm sorry, it's hard to ignore associations. I couldn't help but notice how the reason for your townread on Jockmcplop changed so much. First you said it's because he was making good posts, then you said it was because of how he townread you, then you called him top town and disagreed with my case on him, then you said it was just because of how he townread you. And a few times you said he was town because mafia wouldn't afk and not vote, which is just false when it comes to medical emergencies. It doesn't feel like you have multiple reasons to townread Jockmcplop, it sounds like you are forcing a townread and are choosing an arbitrary reason each time. Outside of that, I don't notice a ton wrong in your filter except how you were wrong on Day 2 with the ShoCkeyy push. You were all excited to lynch raynpelikoneet but then you hard pushed ShoCkeyy most of the day which resulted in his lynch. I wish I had more reasons to call you mafia, so I could convince others It just reads to me like you're mafia. I guess it's just a gut read. Maybe I shouldn't use gut reads in a 77-page game in MYLO with plenty of information but as logical as I am, feelings dominate my decisions. | ||
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I'll be around in the morning in case you decide to switch votes | ||
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On May 06 2020 14:06 Chezinu wrote: Pretty hype, they're a lot of fun! So what is it like to be in the mafia qt with Vivax and Koshi? | ||
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On May 06 2020 14:06 GlowingBear wrote: Like I said, my reasons aren't great. It's a gut read, based on the feels.I even forgot that AFK thing lol. I find hard to believe mafia would risk getting modkilled by not dropping a vote. But you've got a point. You realize that some of the things you're saying are the same thing, but just worded differently, right? I've said I like how his perspective regarding the game is genuine. And why pushing Shockey instead of rayn is bad? He posted a bad WIFOM post that even him didn't believe in. The only reason you have to call me mafia with jock is associative. Felt like you pushed ShoCkeyy to secure an easy mislynch instead of raynpelikoneet, who wasn't likely to be lynched. Leaving your mafia buddies in greater risk. And we can see what happens after Jockmcplop flips. | ||
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On May 06 2020 14:12 Chezinu wrote: Yeah, honestly I'm typically quite poor as mafia. I had one good game many years ago and people have been scared of me ever since... but it was quite the one hit wonder. Koshi has an insane ability to carry as mafia when he wants to, though. And I'm sure Vivax could do quite well. But I'd feel so guilty... I much prefer (attempting) to win a victory with town.I can't believe you were able to be on a team with two really great mafia players that have a knack for controlling the lynches. I'm not sure if I could stop yall even if I knew you all were mafia... I guess I would have to spam the thread. | ||
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On May 06 2020 14:53 GlowingBear wrote: I thought you just said that Jockmcplop could be mafia?Okay, it seems there's nothing I can do to convince you I'm town. After jock flips the game ends, that's what happens. | ||
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On May 06 2020 13:17 GlowingBear wrote: To me, this implies a decent possibility that Jockmcplop is mafia. Like, it's realistic. But now you don't seem to think so anymore. What changed?Alright. I believe Jock could be mafia but I don't want to vote him today. Your turn. | ||
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On May 06 2020 15:05 GlowingBear wrote: Fair enough. I still think that's a slight slip from you but I guess it's up to the others to decide.We were working under assumptions here. I'd reevaluate jock and you'd reevaluate me. There's that. | ||
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Sorry for the tunnel, I guess after I lost confidence in my ShoCkeyy read and was right I feel like I should be more confident in my reads. Not like there is much left to lose, anyway. | ||
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On May 06 2020 16:05 Jockmcplop wrote: I am pretty confident you are mafia, yes. I'm also pretty confident (independently) that Koshi and Vivax are town. Combined, I see nothing wrong with their votes.Trfel why aren't you more concerned with vivax or koshi's votes? If you're so sure that i'm scum wouldn't it bother you that people are putting their votes on me for bad reasons? Doesn't that implicate those people in a bussing situation? Nah. You don't care. Tomorrow doesn't even matter at this point, right? It makes sense for Vivax to feel discouraged and be willing to go for a slight reach in MYLO. He probably didn't want to fight with me over the lynch target too, haha. Koshi looks a bit worse for me, but I can still see it from a demotivated town perspective. | ||
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On May 06 2020 16:22 Vivax wrote: Makes sense. I have a feeling that scum are going to make a final push to save Jockmcplop in the last hour of the day (when I can't be here). That's my main worry at this point.Usually I'd say depends, but looking at Jock's reads I'm feeling pretty good about my vote. I'm confident about my ability to read you and Koshi. Still going to point this stuff out for posterity. Esp. GBs emotionality, Slam being an instant sucker for it, and Chez sentiment based voting, if I had to sum up what I think sticks out. | ||
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I am terribly sorry if I am somehow wrong. It's just the way I see the game right now, I don't think I am. And as Day 3 has progressed, it only fits my view more and more. I'll try to back off a bit and let you do your thing, feel free to ask me anything though and I will try to politely discuss. You have a vote to support with reasons, after all. | ||
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On May 06 2020 16:43 Jockmcplop wrote: Thanks for understanding I'm not offended trfel you are doing what you have to do! I will likely fall asleep sometime soon, so if I stop responding that is why. | ||
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And now mafia can switch votes at the deadline to kill Vivax or whoever Koshi voted for. | ||
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7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 05 2020 16:45 Koshi wrote: Fortunately, I still have one card to play.Town 99% certain lost. I claim Town Tracker. Hard claim. No take-backsies or any of that. I know, I'm surprised there are two investigative roles in the game. But the setup is what the setup is, it's up to us to play it to the best of our abilities. Night 1: Tracked Koshi. Koshi did not visit anyone. Night 2: Tracked GlowingBear. GlowingBear visited Chezinu. Please note a few things about the setup of the game. First, non-vt roles are unique. This includes the mafia team. The mafia team comprises of up to one goon (who delivers the night kill) and two to three of the following: roleblocker, framer, godfather, and mason. Also, keep in mind that roleblocking the veteran does not prevent his ability from blocking a kill in this game. I believe: GlowingBear is the mafia roleblocker/framer who visited Chezinu on Night 2. Framing causes the framed player to visit a random player on that night only (not all future nights, like framing in some other mafia games). So a Night 1 frame on GlowingBear would not cause him to visit a player on Night 2. Also note that framing another mafia member is useless in this game, as framing causes them to return mafia to checks, not reverse the alignment. There is the possibility that GlowingBear himself is the mafia framer and framed Chezinu on Night 2, but I think it is more likely that he is the roleblocker. The reason for this is that Chezinu was hinting at being a power role for a significant portion, as was raynpelikoneet. It makes sense that mafia would roleblock Chezinu and kill raynpelikoneet in this situation. However, if GlowingBear is the mafia framer, I would still consider it a successful lynch. GlowingBear as mafia would never visit mafia!Chezinu in this way. Therefore, unless GlowingBear was framed on Night 2, he is 100% mafia. I consider the odds quite good. And furthermore, if GlowingBear is indeed mafia, Chezinu is confirmed town. That's why I have been hard townreading Chezinu despite knowing that he is not blue. Player List Chezinu Grackaroni? Vivax Alakaslam Jockmcplop Koshi GlowingBear Trfel From here the game still has some difficulty, but the above is what is known. Hopefully as more mafia are lynched, the roles of the mafia players make things more clear. For example, I very, very, very strongly believe Jockmcplop to be mafia, enough that I would be willing to lynch him over nearly-confirmed-mafia GlowingBear today (Day 3, at the time of writing). If Jockmcplop flips mafia goon, unfortunately this is not very helpful. I expect Jockmcplop to be the goon because of Murphy's Law. However, if Jockmcplop flips any other mafia role, we know that the third mafia (not GlowingBear, if he was the goon then Chezinu would be dead, and not Jockmcplop) has to be the goon, because mafia roles are all unique. And remember, the goon delivers the night kill until they are dead. This would all but confirm Koshi as town, because he did not visit anyone on Night 1 (there would need to be three mafia roles, none of which are the goon, and Koshi would need to be the godfather or mason and not deliver the night kill). If Jockmcplop flips godfather, this would also make it even more likely that GlowingBear is mafia and Grackaroni is town (as there is even less likelihood of a framer in a game with an unaware miller and a godfather). One other thing that can be tried is trying to figure out who is the mason. I personally believe that the mason is mafia, otherwise there is no reason for the mason not to have claimed already (even if not to save ShoCkeyy, why not still claim?). I believe that the mason would rather avoid the attention that claiming mason would cause, thus is playing to survive, and therefore is mafia. If no town players claim mason, then we know the remaining mason is mafia, as masons are required to be a pair. If a mafia member is a mason, they can't have any other role (at least, I think this is true anyway, might be worth asking). Therefore, it's even less likely for a framer to exist (assuming GlowingBear flips roleblocker). Unless mafia decides to try and counterclaim (which I welcome with open arms), I will be dead and there will still be two lynches ahead. I strongly recommend lynching Jockmcplop and Alakaslam. Reading Grackaroni as mafia is quite tinfoil-y, but this possibility can be addressed if needed when there is only one mafia left. As more information about the mafia roles is revealed, more information about whether it's possible for Grackaroni to be mafia here is likewise revealed. Koshi is also almost certainly town. In addition to not visiting anyone Night 1, he hard-pushed GlowingBear on Day 1 and nearly lynched him. Vivax is very likely to be town here as well. In my opinion, Vivax's play this game has been a solid average. I realize that this is underwhelming for him given the very strong town games he has played recently. However, I also know that Vivax's meta as mafia is to afk and play a very weak game (admittedly this is an old meta since there haven't been many games for the past few years, so take it with a grain of salt). So I could see Vivax playing like this as mafia. The question is, how likely is it? Is it more likely that Vivax is playing a pretty amazing scum game here, or that obviously suspicious people like Jockmcplop and Alakaslam are mafia? I think viewing Vivax as mafia here is quite paranoid, given the much more obvious targets available (Jockmcplop and Alakaslam). Conclusion Unfortunately, I failed to confirm anything for certain. However, a lot of things are very, very likely with this claim. These are as follows: GlowingBear is mafia Chezinu is town Koshi is town And with a few basic associations, Jockmcplop is mafia Grackaroni is town Alakaslam is mafia I haven't had the time to do this yet, but please, please, please, someone look through GlowingBear's filter. Look at how he and Jockmcplop have been townreading each other since the start of Night 1 for very weak reasons, no matter what evidence is presented. Look at how GlowingBear is so averse to lynching Jockmcplop here. Look how Alakaslam is trying to find the easiest lynch that isn't Jockmcplop, despite Jockmcplop being in his POE mafia list. The associations are strong. Please, please, please heavily consider the following mafia team: GlowingBear Jockmcplop Alakaslam It's been a pleasure playing with you all. I look forward to hopefully playing together again soon. + Show Spoiler [Why did you say this now?] + I didn't want to post this before the End of Night 3 unless I absolutely had to. The main reason is to try and get one more track in (I'd track Alakaslam, he's the mafia target I am least confident in). However, another reason is that I believe that flipping one mafia who isn't GlowingBear will provide even more information on GlowingBear's alignment and the possible roles of the mafia team. And I am very confident that Jockmcplop is mafia here, I am very willing to stake the game on it. I'm possibly even more confident in Jockmcplop being mafia than I am in GlowingBear being mafia, despite the track and all. If this is posted at the End of Night 3 after all, I apologize to town for not being more quiet over Day 3 and kinda giving away that I am a power role. My best play was to keep my mouth shut and not draw attention to get a third track action and hopefully seal the game away. Unfortunately, it was difficult for me to judge how much guidance town needed, and more importantly, I was just plain bored on Day 3, so I needed to be involved and post my thoughts. I don't know when this will actually be posted, I am writing this in the middle of Day 3. I apologize if some of the information is a bit out-of-date, I doubt I had the time and/or motivation to edit this post. + Show Spoiler [Music] + Perhaps more appropriate for me than for you, given the circumstances But we're all in Endgame now. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
##vote GlowingBear | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 07 2020 02:08 Koshi wrote: Part of it was waiting and being hopeful for one more tracking action. Part of it (which I forgot to say) is that if I claimed end of night and died, mafia could no longer counterclaim me. I would almost be more powerful dead than alive.##unvote ##vote GlowingBear Very good. You could have done this sooner but this claim is legit. But yes, maybe sooner would have been good. I was just that confident in Jockmcplop being mafia... | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Better decide what to do! | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Surprised you didn't go for the "I was framed!" approach honestly. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 07 2020 02:46 GlowingBear wrote: Since when did you believe Chezinu's claim? o.OWhy would I say I was framed? I don't believe there are THREE power roles with TWO investigative roles in the game. Claiming now is very opportunistic, since you were piling votes. This is you, as mafia, trying to guarantee a win now. If you mislynch, you win. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'll be back in an hour or so to see what happened. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 07 2020 02:55 GlowingBear wrote: I never said Chezinu was the doctor in my claim post?We've discussed this a lot today, didn't we? I've been trying to get more information from him to confirm this, there is a possibility he is the doctor. And if you don't believe Chez is the doctor, why are you assuming he is in your claim post? Also, if your claim is true, why did you track Koshi, out of every other player? Check my filter N1 and my case on Koshi, that's why. And guess why I backed off of it D2? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 07 2020 03:41 Vivax wrote: I was thinking we had the lynch. I was trying to maybe survive the night by being less certain in my reads.I looked at Trfel's read on Chez. One's on N2, the other is today. It actually is consistent with the claim. + Show Spoiler + On May 04 2020 05:22 Trfel wrote: Finished lunch. On a computer now. Let me know if anyone wants to talk, I'll be on and off between this and schoolwork. Before Rereading Town Vivax - Only other player who has been consistently present and trying to find mafia Maybe Town Grackaroni - Good thoughts on ShoCkeyy even if wrong, need to double check though Alakaslam - Seems like he is actually trying to solve the game Koshi - Effort, re-evaluating reads, trying to solve the game raynpelikoneet - Trying to solve the game, willing to work with people. Didn't make much of a fuss about ShoCkeyy getting lynched, need to re-evaluate this Maybe Mafia Chezinu - Very distant, disinterested Jockmcplop - Hiding in the background, not posting original thoughts/reads GlowingBear - Scumreads feel fabricated, doesn't seem to care about them 9 players left. 6 v 3. After the night kill it'll be 5 v 3, so that makes it MYLO currently. Lousy position to be in On May 05 2020 06:50 Trfel wrote: Town Chezinu Grackaroni Town? Vivax Koshi Mafia? Alakaslam Mafia Jockmcplop GlowingBear What doesn't make sense are these two posts: Post 1 should never have happened if Chez was confirmed town for Trfel. ##Unvote ##Vote Trfel | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
You are seriously lynching an un-cc'd blue? I really have nothing to say. I've played my heart out this game. Kinda disappointed honestly. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 07 2020 03:58 Chezinu wrote: I said I needed to be gone the hour before the deadline....Why did you disappear Mr. Truffle? Which is why I claimed well before it was time to go. But no one discussed it then. If you must know, I had a therapist appointment. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Sorry town I tried to explain why I did what I did in my large post, I didn't think I'd have to defend myself much so the important parts for my own defense I put in a spoiler at the bottom that never seemed to get read I was trying to avoid claiming because I was certain Jockmcplop was mafia and I was hoping to get one more track action off. I would have tracked Alakaslam, which if it had all worked out, would have been really helpful in trying to realize that Alakaslam was town after all. I ended up claiming when it looked like we were going to not lynch Jockmcplop at End of Day, it had nothing to do with the suspicion on myself. Also just very disappointed that I claimed with two hours until End of Day and everyone sat there and only started being suspicious with one hour until End of Day, when I had to leave, exactly like I said I would, but everyone knew that mafia would only try to do something during that time. I don't think it would have gone down that way if I had been present and able to post. I just feel really awful, that's 2/3 of my last town games I've been a blue role and managed to get lynched anyway So much for my former unlynchable self Sorry again. | ||
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