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Vivax
22089 Posts
When comparing your reads to what you said earlier about people, first Shockeyy and now Koshi don't seem to fit much into what you're saying now. You listed a bunch of reasons for Koshi to be mafia, but the night kill made you paranoid about him, and then he ends up with me and rayn in maybe town. Kinda hope I'm wrong here and Trfel didn't evolve his scum game into sounding like an innocent child. | ||
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Vivax
22089 Posts
Gonna wait on this instead. On May 02 2020 11:05 Jockmcplop wrote: RIP Fefe. I have some rethinking to do in the morning. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Vivax, are you sure GlowingBear is town? I know he didn't vote, and that can seem towny, but outside of that his play reads like mafia to me. I'm on my phone so it's hard to elaborate, but if it's only one thing that makes you think someone is town, IMO you'd better be really really freaking sure about that one thing. Mafia can do surprising things sometimes. | ||
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Vivax
22089 Posts
On May 02 2020 16:19 Trfel wrote: Koshi wasn't a low conviction suspect, I just re-evaluated. His response to my push felt towny to me, his defense was unexpected and understandable. He has felt invested in the game. At least for now I'm backing off. Still suspicious, but there is reason to townread him (especially viewing GlowingBear as mafia). Vivax, are you sure GlowingBear is town? I know he didn't vote, and that can seem towny, but outside of that his play reads like mafia to me. I'm on my phone so it's hard to elaborate, but if it's only one thing that makes you think someone is town, IMO you'd better be really really freaking sure about that one thing. Mafia can do surprising things sometimes. Yeah, you may be right that I'm giving too much importance to that, but when as mafia you just want to survive, voting someone else to save yourself for another cycle is really a nobrainer. He was here at EoD 100%. I think I'll chill for now and see what GB brings to the table to get rayn and Koshi lynched. Because it's kind of bold to be in a line of thinking where the mafia are Koshi, rayn and one of me or Slam and I want to see how he justifies that. . It's not an impossible combination, but kinda like assuming mafia hit the active vet jackpot. Though rayn to me doesn't feel like the same rayn from yesterday before EoD, so there's that. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
GlowingBear 1. Scumread Koshi for misconstruing GlowingBear's play. However, note the timing, he scumread Koshi well after this all started. Despite GlowingBear not having a townread on Koshi, he got mad at Koshi and treated Koshi like town and never questioned that he could be mafia until much later, when raynpelikoneet asks him about Koshi. This doesn't feel natural at all. Town tend to be quick to call their accusers scum, especially when they feel misrepresented and ignored and all the things GlowingBear was saying. 2. Shifting reads. His scumreads shift in priority in a way that doesn't make sense. First he says Jockmcplop is mafia, and Alakaslam second. Then he says Jockmcplop and Koshi are mafia, and raynpelikoneet or Alakaslam. Then he was making a case on raynpelikoneet to defend himself (huh?). Then most recently raynpelikoneet as top mafia. It doesn't feel like he is putting much thought into his scumreads. 3. Evaluates my post on Koshi at face value. While this is objectively good, I don't see this coming from town who strongly scumreads Koshi and cares about his alignment. GlowingBear's thoughts are correct, and that's the issue here. GlowingBear doesn't use it as an opportunity to convince me to vote for Koshi or anything. Not that he should lie, or ignore my points being weak, but he could have directed me to stronger reasons to scumread Koshi. Or pointed out the strength of my remaining point instead of merely saying it was the strongest point I provided. Feels like he is just sharing his thoughts instead of actually caring about people's alignments. Sorry if that doesn't make sense, I know it's a lot of words. There are a few other points I could make, but I figured I would just bring up these things now. ##vote GlowingBear | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 02 2020 16:49 Vivax wrote: What GlowingBear said about losing motivation and not caring if he was lynched is 100% true, regardless of alignment. Given how he was being constantly scumread, sick, and in a Diplomacy game, I could really see him not minding being lynched there.Yeah, you may be right that I'm giving too much importance to that, but when as mafia you just want to survive, voting someone else to save yourself for another cycle is really a nobrainer. He was here at EoD 100%. I think I'll chill for now and see what GB brings to the table to get rayn and Koshi lynched. Because it's kind of bold to be in a line of thinking where the mafia are Koshi, rayn and one of me or Slam and I want to see how he justifies that. . It's not an impossible combination, but kinda like assuming mafia hit the active vet jackpot. Though rayn to me doesn't feel like the same rayn from yesterday before EoD, so there's that. It's hard to describe, or show without quotes, but maybe sometime take another look at GlowingBear's filter and see how his reads on Koshi and raynpelikoneet and Alakaslam evolve. And see how much weight and care he puts behind those reads. I think it's very telling. | ||
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Chezinu
United States7448 Posts
On May 02 2020 15:50 Trfel wrote: This is the world I'm living in currently. It's not a fun place to be. Town  Maybe Town? Vivax Koshi raynpelikoneet Super Weak Townread ShoCkeyy Grackaroni Alakaslam Jockmcplop Mafia? Chezinu GlowingBear? Mafia This is such an extraordinary, extraordinary shock, unlike anything certainly that’s happened in my lifetime ... we’re still putting out the fire, we’re still trying to win, and I think we’ll be at that for a while | ||
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Chezinu
United States7448 Posts
The time will come again, and reasonably soon, I think where we can think about a long-term way to get the fiscal house in order, and we absolutely need to do that. But in my personal view, this is not the time to let that concern, which is a very serious concern, to let that get in the way of us winning this battle. | ||
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Chezinu
United States7448 Posts
Chezinu | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
If you're wondering what changed between my case/vote and my list post, I read GlowingBear's filter a few times. Chezinu, I'm sorry, I'm not sure what you mean Care to translate for those of us who struggle to see things the way you do? | ||
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Chezinu
United States7448 Posts
On May 02 2020 17:25 Trfel wrote: It's quite late here, so if I stop responding, I probably fell asleep. Which I desperately need. If you're wondering what changed between my case/vote and my list post, I read GlowingBear's filter a few times. Chezinu, I'm sorry, I'm not sure what you mean Care to translate for those of us who struggle to see things the way you do?The message is this. This is a unique situation. It is not your typical downturn. We’ve asked people to step back from economic activity for the public good... [I] will support you now and our policies will be very important when the recovery does come to make that recovery as strong as possible. | ||
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Chezinu
United States7448 Posts
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9716 Posts
 If you have a read on rayn that you could give us a clue about I would find that really helpful. Thanks. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9716 Posts
On May 02 2020 16:09 Vivax wrote: Actually I'll banish that thought for now. Doubt I'd lynch Trfel today anyway. Gonna wait on this instead. I mean, don't wait for this.. Fefe dying makes me question my koshi read alot, which in turn makes me question my other reads. I have to decide whether i still think shockeyy is town, because I was basing most of my reads on that one. I need to filter 4-5 players today though before i know where i'm at. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9716 Posts
On May 02 2020 17:01 Trfel wrote: Fine. I'll make a phone case. No pretty quotes or links, so you'll have to read GlowingBear's filter too. GlowingBear 1. Scumread Koshi for misconstruing GlowingBear's play. However, note the timing, he scumread Koshi well after this all started. Despite GlowingBear not having a townread on Koshi, he got mad at Koshi and treated Koshi like town and never questioned that he could be mafia until much later, when raynpelikoneet asks him about Koshi. This doesn't feel natural at all. Town tend to be quick to call their accusers scum, especially when they feel misrepresented and ignored and all the things GlowingBear was saying. 2. Shifting reads. His scumreads shift in priority in a way that doesn't make sense. First he says Jockmcplop is mafia, and Alakaslam second. Then he says Jockmcplop and Koshi are mafia, and raynpelikoneet or Alakaslam. Then he was making a case on raynpelikoneet to defend himself (huh?). Then most recently raynpelikoneet as top mafia. It doesn't feel like he is putting much thought into his scumreads. 3. Evaluates my post on Koshi at face value. While this is objectively good, I don't see this coming from town who strongly scumreads Koshi and cares about his alignment. GlowingBear's thoughts are correct, and that's the issue here. GlowingBear doesn't use it as an opportunity to convince me to vote for Koshi or anything. Not that he should lie, or ignore my points being weak, but he could have directed me to stronger reasons to scumread Koshi. Or pointed out the strength of my remaining point instead of merely saying it was the strongest point I provided. Feels like he is just sharing his thoughts instead of actually caring about people's alignments. Sorry if that doesn't make sense, I know it's a lot of words. There are a few other points I could make, but I figured I would just bring up these things now. ##vote GlowingBear RE: point 3, how does my analysis of your koshi post effect your read on me? | ||
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[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
Day 2 - BRRRR.MONEY COUNT Votes: ShoCkeyy: (1) Koshi GlowingBear: (1) Trfel raynpelikoneet: (0) Trfel: (0) Not Voting: Chezinu, ShoCkeyy, Grackaroni, Vivax, Alakaslam, Jockmcplop, raynpelikoneet, GlowingBear ShoCkeyy is set to be lynched with 1 vote. until End of Day | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 02 2020 21:46 Jockmcplop wrote: Honestly it doesn't really, especially since GlowingBear said the same thing first.RE: point 3, how does my analysis of your koshi post effect your read on me? | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9716 Posts
On May 02 2020 23:17 Trfel wrote: Honestly it doesn't really, especially since GlowingBear said the same thing first. You're wrong, I said the same thing first, GB turned up later and then said my post agreed with his, but mine was first. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9716 Posts
On May 01 2020 20:31 Jockmcplop wrote: + Show Spoiler + On May 01 2020 14:11 Trfel wrote: If I stop focusing on GlowingBear's alignment and look at others, I see Koshi being mafia a lot more easily than I see raynpelikoneet being mafia. But I'm listening to what people say about raynpelikoneet, it would be dumb to ignore. Suspicious of Koshi because: Says he likes ShoCkeyy possibly even less than GlowingBear, says he could move from GlowingBear to ShoCkeyy at the deadline, then doesn't do so. Says he votes for the scummiest low-activity poster while voting GlowingBear instead of ShoCkeyy (after GlowingBear's string of update posts). .............. Calls for vigilante shot on Chezinu instead of ShoCkeyy, who has been his secondary target previously Thoughts? If this is suggesting koshi/shockeyy mafia I don't think so. Shockeyy's hard scumread on koshi is too much for early bussing imo. Otherwise I think the best part of this case is here:+ Show Spoiler + Mild "don't lynch Kurumi" post. Feels so mild-mannered for Koshi, who is usually such an aggressive poster. He doesn't seem to care much about who gets lynched between GlowingBear, his super scumread, and Kurumi, his townread. Tells raynpelikoneet to keep voting for Kurumi while sticking on GlowingBear himself Its really hard to parse town motivation from these two posts. It looks like there's a contradiction, like don't townread kurumi for that post he made but we shouldn't lynch him but don't stop voting him based on that post. If you didn't want kurumi lynched, your objective should be to stop town from lynching him. why would you tell rayn to ignore that post and suggest that kurumi might be mafia for posting it? On May 01 2020 23:47 GlowingBear wrote: The first three points and the last one are basically associative. As town, you can say you'd lynch someone that seems to be a wild card instead of his main scumread. I've done this dozens of time. Last game we've played together I lynched Kelsier over you, my top scumread. This is only a strong point IF Shockey is mafia. Whenever I'm fed up with lurkers I also prefer to lynch them over top scum reads. The points where he keeps saying to lynch Kurumi instead of having me lynched is stronger, especially when he has been a lot tunneled on me. The strongest point is that Koshi hardly reevaluates his reads, he just assumed Jock=town/GB=mafia and went with it, interpreting every post under this conviction, instead of reevaluating his position with new information dropped in thread. Easy way to survive as mafia while still looking contributive. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9716 Posts
On May 01 2020 12:50 Fecalfeast wrote: I have scum reads or at least scumleans on shockey slam gb chezinu and atm grack And i was scumming kurumi but actually can you show me where i threw suspicion everyehere? Pointing out or questioning perceived contradictions is hardly throwing suspicion So these are the people that are implicated/framed by the Fefe kill. Here's how I was on them before Fefe's kill: town shockeyy town lean GB null: chez grack scum slam I think i'm more likely to townlean grack now just because of his attitude and tone. GB stays where he is. I'm really not convinced of trfel's case on him at all. In fact I flat out disagree with it. Which leaves chez and slam in the null/scum sections. This makes me uncomfortable, they aren't two players who I want to build a view of the game on assuming their alignment, as they are both very difficult to read. I think shockeyy is the most important player right now. I'm gonna go and reread all the reasons people have for scumreading him. I already said why i disagree with Fefe's reasons for scumreading shockeyy and his flip doesn't change my reasoning there at all. I still have a strong feeling that koshi and shockeyy are opposite alignments. | ||
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