Willing to vote for Kickstart early on, suggests that Kickstart is town Says that he would lynch Damdred Voted for batsnacks Rels town Would lynch Trfel Vote on Oatsmaster (final list post ignored due to WIFOM)
This suggests to me that Damdred is town and batsnacks is town, and also Kickstart town. It seems to hint at Rels being scummy. I don't think it says anything about Oatsmaster, because the wagons between Sulfurus and Kickstart were about even at this point. It looked fairly bad for Sulfurus here, so his vote on Oatsmaster isn't very useful (if he was really trying to stay alive, he would have voted for Kickstart, who he was comfortable scumreading).
This is the situation when scott31337 places his vote. He voted for Sulfurus here. At the time of his vote, there was a little less than 20 hours left in Day 1.
His vote for Sulfurus here doesn't actually mean that much. There's a lot of time left in the day, and it's likely that many people will switch votes. Still, his vote on Sulfurus leaves batsnacks in the vote lead, and when Sulfurus flips, it makes him look better. The only reason that mafia!scott31337 wouldn't want to vote for Sulfurus here is in case his vote ends up making the difference and he doesn't have an excuse to switch.
On June 13 2015 14:45 scott31337 wrote: He has not laid any of his battraps though, which makes me wonder, he almost always does this as town.
He said this to me in BBCode. There's something that he can use as an excuse to switch to batsnacks later. He says this before the Rels wagon started.
The Rels wagon is gaining steam and the batsnacks wagon is dying. It looks like the lynch will come down to Sulfurus and Rels, and it looks fairly close. Here, scott31337 switched to Rels from Sulfurus, bringing them to four votes each.
Rels is generally throwing around suspicions on everything. His townread on ruXxar changed after it was clear that the push on ruXxar wasn't going anywhere. He's scumreading people already being scumread by others, and multiple times he uses other people's posts to justify increasing his own suspicions of other people. + Show Spoiler [Examples] +
Criticizing MoosyDoosy's opening post (geript already did this) Suspicious of batsnacks (common suspicion), geript (WaveofShadow already said this), and MoosyDoosy (geript) Agrees with the suspicion I voiced on MoosyDoosy Immediately asked geript for his reason for being suspicious of scott31337, suddenly is more suspicious of him himself (see my previous post)
It seems like Rels is like a leaf in the wind, following thread sentiment, jumping on whatever works. He townreads people who are being townread already, he scumreads people who are being scumread, and only changes when the thread sentiment shifts.
The one major departure from this trend is when he townreads batsnacks. He did this before Damdred jumped in. This is a pretty big change in his read, and against the thread sentiment. However, I think that the way that Rels jumps on whatever suspicion is available every other time in the thread is quite telling.
I can get aboard this and feeling better then a Sulf lynch - you pulled a lot of work Trfel. You the man!
What has he said about Rels before this?
On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote: Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read.
On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote: Probably wouldn't lynch today - Rels
(rest of list post omitted)
On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote: KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder.
Given how his post before switching to Rels, he said this:
On June 13 2015 23:03 ruXxar wrote: I'm trying to figure out why people are scumreading sulfurus.
I read through his filter and I found nothing to make me read him as either alignment. I went through the voting history to see who voted for him. The kickstart vote was too early to judge for me, so I ignored it. The next one to vote is geript.
Reading through geripts filter I get a bad vibe.
On June 12 2015 10:27 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote: I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet.
I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great.
Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia?
And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us.
On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves.
people should be talking about this.
He pointed out that since noone jumped on moosy for this post, then moosy is mafia. This makes no sense to me. To me that post is filled with genuine excitement from a newbie. Seeing as I'm a newbie too i understand all to well how he must've felt in his early posts.
On June 13 2015 03:31 geript wrote:
On June 13 2015 03:22 WaveofShadow wrote: Geript I don't understand how you go from seemingly town-->scum-->town on moosy without any real change in anything he has done. Not following thought processes with you at all, though I think that actually might be standard for you and it annoys me.
Never assumed he was town to start w/ babycakes. Moreso: 1. Moosy makes a god awful post --> I think he's scum 2. No one pushes Moosy --> If he's town I'd expect someone to have jumped on him therefore scum 3. Posts a shit ton --> Probably just nubian with bad opening and mafia afk or otherwise engaged
On June 13 2015 05:29 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote: I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet.
I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great.
Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia?
And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us.
On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves.
Did you look at this post at all?
He's commenting about things that don't really matter in a way that he's seemingly had some interesting thought on it. He asks a question that's essentially a statement. He meanders through potentially interesting topics while giving no opinion on anything. Then he plays the dumbtell card.
It's a big post that literally offers nothing while commenting on things in a way that confer a formed opinion. It almost can be boiled down to: "I've been thinking about this game, but I won't really comment on it at all. What do you guys think about this random stuff?" I don't see even newer town players do that often.
Then he gets into an argument with waveofshadow who also picks up on his inconsistency in alignment on moosy.
I can't see his reasoning for voting on sulfurous. Basically he said 2 things about sulfurous:
On June 13 2015 03:08 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 10:12 Sulfurus wrote: I'm starting to really like the case on Kickstarter; he has made a lot of posts that give the illusion of being a helpful towny with his PSA and rule clarifications but they are really just filler and something that the mods already have covered.
On top of that I think n00bKing's defense of ruXx is spot on which gives even more validity to the Kickstarter push.
##Vote: Kickstarter
(I admit that in a vacuum I would probably scum read Bats more but I've learned my lesson from last game)
This post is pretty bad.
and
On June 13 2015 05:12 geript wrote:
On June 13 2015 04:37 Sulfurus wrote: @geript That's good that you no longer scum read Moosy but Bats hasn't made the same realization you have and you townread two of the people voting on him. So what do you think of him?
I'd rather lynch you.
Then kickstart says this which aligns with my own thinking.
On June 13 2015 06:03 Kickstart wrote: Went through geript's filter. His move off moosy and onto sulfurus was weird to me. He just said "id rather lynch you" in this thread, then voted in the other thread, and hasn't mentioned it at all. strange.
This give me a townlean on kickstart.
I still think bats is our best lynch for day 1, but geript has raised a red flag for me. I want to know why he's voting for sulfurus.
Why does this just scream "save sulfurus" for some reason to me?
It seems like he was preparing to look good for bussing Sulfurus, but left himself an out to vote for batsnacks if necessary, and then decided to join the Rels wagon when he had a chance. This feels rather scummy.
Along with Sulfurus, scott31337 voted for Kickstart to bring the wagons to Kickstart with five votes and Sulfurus with six. Despite this being close, it became clear that Sulfurus was going to be lynched, so scott31337 switched votes to Sulfurus.
On June 17 2015 06:49 scott31337 wrote: If Sulf is mafia then I'll look like shit
Trfel is my believer and WoS is my believer they want Sulf dead Sulf isn't doing shit Let's go Sulf then fuhq it
And he's well aware that Sulfurus flipping red makes him look bad.
On June 13 2015 02:08 scott31337 wrote: Geript has four posts and very little content. I know he's good as mafia - but on the scum side of null for now.
He scumreads geript here, but uses the reason that geript is good at mafia to weaken his argument. As a result, he doesn't push this at all (and it would be hard to push geript, because he is a strong player).
He also scumreads MoosyDoosy and batsnacks, back when MoosyDoosy was a very easy target and batsnacks was scumread by most people.
On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote: Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read.
It makes no sense whatsoever for town!scott31337 to townread Rels for scumreading the person he replaced for his one post. Assuming that scott31337 is town, he townreads Rels for scumreading someone who scott31337 knows is town and was only able to make one (useless) post. There is no reason whatsoever that Rels should get a townread for this. To me, this feels like scott31337 is attempting to pocket Rels, which makes sense given that Rels would naturally be suspicious of him after the replacement. His explanation here adds that he townread Rels for strongly believing this case, but mafia!Rels has no reason NOT to push his case so strongly because he knows that Fake)Plants is town (thus an easy mislynch) and that he almost certainly won't provide strong resistance.
On June 12 2015 11:33 MoosyDoosy wrote: ^ Also Kickstart, I wouldn't read too much into ruXx's initial post where he's rambling about slapping/daydreaming about Mafia. It might have been from an attempt to identify himself as a non-aggressor to the Mafia so that when night time comes around, they don't kill him. If the game went on for longer, people would also suspect ruXx more giving the Mafia an easy kill. This actually happens a ton in real life Mafia but it's clear it's totally different online at this point.
Also, going back to his post where he "misses the interaction" which is right after his rambling, it's pretty clear that ruXx is not paying attention whatsoever. As a newbie he was probably just as excited as I was about remaining passive which is why he didn't notice the err in his post. Just the fact that it seems he has no idea whatsoever about what he's saying during his rambling just shows this too.
I'll look through the rest of your points, but I'll try and provide a "newbie perspective." Either way, it looks like he wised up real fast and stopped being as frantic and energetic in his posts.
On June 12 2015 11:38 MoosyDoosy wrote: Yeah, the more I read of ruXx's initial posts, the more it seems he's thinking in terms of a real life Mafia game as well as tryharding a bit.
Him intercepting a question was him tryharding a basic read and him supporting lying is from a real life Mafia mindset since lying is much more common in real life.
The last two posts that you point out are kind of shady but even then they err on the side of newbie to online Mafia. Overall I wouldn't vote him just yet until we get more evidence.
Wow moosy.
I have to give you 5 stars for this read. It's like you're inside my head or something. I had goosebumps reading this since it was so spot on.
You are absolutely right that my only exposure to mafia has been through watching the TI qualifiers hub, and later watching all stars mafia on youtube.
I really wanted to emulate the dynamic of a live environment, and went in trying to actively counter some of the things i picked up that a mafia would do.
From watching those live mafia games I learned that the number 1 trait of a mafia is to be silent. They would bide their time and look for arguments to bandwagon onto, often avoid getting into heated arguments if possible, and when attacked they would try to deflect onto another person.
I admit I am very excited to go out playing my first mafia game, and overracted by claiming my role before day 1 post(I did not know that this was frowned upon).
Another thing that I learned is that it doesn't matter if you are mafia or not, as long as you contribute to try solving the case, then it's good to keep people around just in case they are town, because then in the largest portion of games they would be a boon to you as a town.
This is Rexxar's best post. The goosebumps part sounds so legitimate and would be extremely creative to fake from the posts he made earlier. Slight town read
Slight townread on ruXxar. Then he doesn't mention ruXxar for a while, until:
On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote: Who I'm liking so far -
Wave Trfel n00bKing Damdred Oats
Probably wouldn't lynch today - Rels Kickstart
Could Lynch - Batsnacks Geript MoosyDoosy Sulfurus RuXxar
Including basically everyone who could be lynched today in the "Could Lynch" category. Again, note that he ends up voting for Rels, despite having included him in the "Probably wouldn't lynch today" category, the only reasons being sheeping me and this post:
On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote: KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder.
Finally, he's always saying he could lynch geript, without actually pushing it or doing anything about it. When the votes finally switched to geript, and scott31337 switched his own vote to geript, he didn't say anything whatsoever.
I need to move on, I'm running out of time, but I'm pretty confident that scott31337 is mafia.
He's really not offering townreads, and he's throwing a LOT of suspicion around. This isn't necessarily alignment indicative, as town!Oatsmaster loves to throw suspicion around. However, his stance on Sulfurus is very suspicious.
On June 13 2015 11:11 Oatsmaster wrote: if bats flips town, ill be going after sulfurus.
On June 13 2015 18:40 Oatsmaster wrote: I would lynch geript if we don't lynch bats.
Finally, the voting analysis of Day 1 looks suspicious. He was hard scumreading batsnacks for a very long time, and eventually the votes went to batsnacks at 6, and Sulfurus at 4. Then Rels unvoted, and it looked like the batsnacks wagon was going to collapse. Instead of waiting for Sulfurus (who he already said he would lynch after batsnacks), Oatsmaster stayed around and waited until it looked like there was a good chance of a geript wagon, and then voted geript and went to sleep.
While he did townread Rels, he did this before the push on Rels began.
This is Oatsmaster trying to save Sulfurus, but not looking bad if he flips.
Concluding List Post!
Town Kickstart batsnacks WaveofShadow
Probably Town Rels (despite Sulfurus association) MoosyDoosy Damdred
I'm not mafia though - I haven't been liking Oats for quite a bit and I agree with the Sulfurus comments you said. Unless someone comes with some crazy post, Sounds like a good start. Ruxx looks SLIGHTLY better but...
Do you have any questions for me bud I could shine some clarification on?
Are you talking to me?
If so, please let me know if I missed anything in my case on you at the top of this page.
Willing to vote for Kickstart early on, suggests that Kickstart is town Says that he would lynch Damdred Voted for batsnacks Rels town Would lynch Trfel Vote on Oatsmaster (final list post ignored due to WIFOM)
This suggests to me that Damdred is town and batsnacks is town, and also Kickstart town. It seems to hint at Rels being scummy. I don't think it says anything about Oatsmaster, because the wagons between Sulfurus and Kickstart were about even at this point. It looked fairly bad for Sulfurus here, so his vote on Oatsmaster isn't very useful (if he was really trying to stay alive, he would have voted for Kickstart, who he was comfortable scumreading).
This is the situation when scott31337 places his vote. He voted for Sulfurus here. At the time of his vote, there was a little less than 20 hours left in Day 1.
His vote for Sulfurus here doesn't actually mean that much. There's a lot of time left in the day, and it's likely that many people will switch votes. Still, his vote on Sulfurus leaves batsnacks in the vote lead, and when Sulfurus flips, it makes him look better. The only reason that mafia!scott31337 wouldn't want to vote for Sulfurus here is in case his vote ends up making the difference and he doesn't have an excuse to switch.
On June 13 2015 14:45 scott31337 wrote: He has not laid any of his battraps though, which makes me wonder, he almost always does this as town.
He said this to me in BBCode. There's something that he can use as an excuse to switch to batsnacks later. He says this before the Rels wagon started.
The Rels wagon is gaining steam and the batsnacks wagon is dying. It looks like the lynch will come down to Sulfurus and Rels, and it looks fairly close. Here, scott31337 switched to Rels from Sulfurus, bringing them to four votes each.
Rels is generally throwing around suspicions on everything. His townread on ruXxar changed after it was clear that the push on ruXxar wasn't going anywhere. He's scumreading people already being scumread by others, and multiple times he uses other people's posts to justify increasing his own suspicions of other people. + Show Spoiler [Examples] +
Criticizing MoosyDoosy's opening post (geript already did this) Suspicious of batsnacks (common suspicion), geript (WaveofShadow already said this), and MoosyDoosy (geript) Agrees with the suspicion I voiced on MoosyDoosy Immediately asked geript for his reason for being suspicious of scott31337, suddenly is more suspicious of him himself (see my previous post)
It seems like Rels is like a leaf in the wind, following thread sentiment, jumping on whatever works. He townreads people who are being townread already, he scumreads people who are being scumread, and only changes when the thread sentiment shifts.
The one major departure from this trend is when he townreads batsnacks. He did this before Damdred jumped in. This is a pretty big change in his read, and against the thread sentiment. However, I think that the way that Rels jumps on whatever suspicion is available every other time in the thread is quite telling.
I can get aboard this and feeling better then a Sulf lynch - you pulled a lot of work Trfel. You the man!
What has he said about Rels before this?
On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote: Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read.
On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote: Probably wouldn't lynch today - Rels
(rest of list post omitted)
On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote: KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder.
Given how his post before switching to Rels, he said this:
On June 13 2015 23:03 ruXxar wrote: I'm trying to figure out why people are scumreading sulfurus.
I read through his filter and I found nothing to make me read him as either alignment. I went through the voting history to see who voted for him. The kickstart vote was too early to judge for me, so I ignored it. The next one to vote is geript.
Reading through geripts filter I get a bad vibe.
On June 12 2015 10:27 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote: I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet.
I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great.
Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia?
And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us.
On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves.
people should be talking about this.
He pointed out that since noone jumped on moosy for this post, then moosy is mafia. This makes no sense to me. To me that post is filled with genuine excitement from a newbie. Seeing as I'm a newbie too i understand all to well how he must've felt in his early posts.
On June 13 2015 03:31 geript wrote:
On June 13 2015 03:22 WaveofShadow wrote: Geript I don't understand how you go from seemingly town-->scum-->town on moosy without any real change in anything he has done. Not following thought processes with you at all, though I think that actually might be standard for you and it annoys me.
Never assumed he was town to start w/ babycakes. Moreso: 1. Moosy makes a god awful post --> I think he's scum 2. No one pushes Moosy --> If he's town I'd expect someone to have jumped on him therefore scum 3. Posts a shit ton --> Probably just nubian with bad opening and mafia afk or otherwise engaged
On June 13 2015 05:29 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote: I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet.
I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great.
Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia?
And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us.
On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves.
Did you look at this post at all?
He's commenting about things that don't really matter in a way that he's seemingly had some interesting thought on it. He asks a question that's essentially a statement. He meanders through potentially interesting topics while giving no opinion on anything. Then he plays the dumbtell card.
It's a big post that literally offers nothing while commenting on things in a way that confer a formed opinion. It almost can be boiled down to: "I've been thinking about this game, but I won't really comment on it at all. What do you guys think about this random stuff?" I don't see even newer town players do that often.
Then he gets into an argument with waveofshadow who also picks up on his inconsistency in alignment on moosy.
I can't see his reasoning for voting on sulfurous. Basically he said 2 things about sulfurous:
On June 13 2015 03:08 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 10:12 Sulfurus wrote: I'm starting to really like the case on Kickstarter; he has made a lot of posts that give the illusion of being a helpful towny with his PSA and rule clarifications but they are really just filler and something that the mods already have covered.
On top of that I think n00bKing's defense of ruXx is spot on which gives even more validity to the Kickstarter push.
##Vote: Kickstarter
(I admit that in a vacuum I would probably scum read Bats more but I've learned my lesson from last game)
This post is pretty bad.
and
On June 13 2015 05:12 geript wrote:
On June 13 2015 04:37 Sulfurus wrote: @geript That's good that you no longer scum read Moosy but Bats hasn't made the same realization you have and you townread two of the people voting on him. So what do you think of him?
I'd rather lynch you.
Then kickstart says this which aligns with my own thinking.
On June 13 2015 06:03 Kickstart wrote: Went through geript's filter. His move off moosy and onto sulfurus was weird to me. He just said "id rather lynch you" in this thread, then voted in the other thread, and hasn't mentioned it at all. strange.
This give me a townlean on kickstart.
I still think bats is our best lynch for day 1, but geript has raised a red flag for me. I want to know why he's voting for sulfurus.
Why does this just scream "save sulfurus" for some reason to me?
It seems like he was preparing to look good for bussing Sulfurus, but left himself an out to vote for batsnacks if necessary, and then decided to join the Rels wagon when he had a chance. This feels rather scummy.
Along with Sulfurus, scott31337 voted for Kickstart to bring the wagons to Kickstart with five votes and Sulfurus with six. Despite this being close, it became clear that Sulfurus was going to be lynched, so scott31337 switched votes to Sulfurus.
On June 17 2015 06:49 scott31337 wrote: If Sulf is mafia then I'll look like shit
Trfel is my believer and WoS is my believer they want Sulf dead Sulf isn't doing shit Let's go Sulf then fuhq it
And he's well aware that Sulfurus flipping red makes him look bad.
On June 13 2015 02:08 scott31337 wrote: Geript has four posts and very little content. I know he's good as mafia - but on the scum side of null for now.
He scumreads geript here, but uses the reason that geript is good at mafia to weaken his argument. As a result, he doesn't push this at all (and it would be hard to push geript, because he is a strong player).
He also scumreads MoosyDoosy and batsnacks, back when MoosyDoosy was a very easy target and batsnacks was scumread by most people.
On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote: Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read.
It makes no sense whatsoever for town!scott31337 to townread Rels for scumreading the person he replaced for his one post. Assuming that scott31337 is town, he townreads Rels for scumreading someone who scott31337 knows is town and was only able to make one (useless) post. There is no reason whatsoever that Rels should get a townread for this. To me, this feels like scott31337 is attempting to pocket Rels, which makes sense given that Rels would naturally be suspicious of him after the replacement. His explanation here adds that he townread Rels for strongly believing this case, but mafia!Rels has no reason NOT to push his case so strongly because he knows that Fake)Plants is town (thus an easy mislynch) and that he almost certainly won't provide strong resistance.
On June 12 2015 11:33 MoosyDoosy wrote: ^ Also Kickstart, I wouldn't read too much into ruXx's initial post where he's rambling about slapping/daydreaming about Mafia. It might have been from an attempt to identify himself as a non-aggressor to the Mafia so that when night time comes around, they don't kill him. If the game went on for longer, people would also suspect ruXx more giving the Mafia an easy kill. This actually happens a ton in real life Mafia but it's clear it's totally different online at this point.
Also, going back to his post where he "misses the interaction" which is right after his rambling, it's pretty clear that ruXx is not paying attention whatsoever. As a newbie he was probably just as excited as I was about remaining passive which is why he didn't notice the err in his post. Just the fact that it seems he has no idea whatsoever about what he's saying during his rambling just shows this too.
I'll look through the rest of your points, but I'll try and provide a "newbie perspective." Either way, it looks like he wised up real fast and stopped being as frantic and energetic in his posts.
On June 12 2015 11:38 MoosyDoosy wrote: Yeah, the more I read of ruXx's initial posts, the more it seems he's thinking in terms of a real life Mafia game as well as tryharding a bit.
Him intercepting a question was him tryharding a basic read and him supporting lying is from a real life Mafia mindset since lying is much more common in real life.
The last two posts that you point out are kind of shady but even then they err on the side of newbie to online Mafia. Overall I wouldn't vote him just yet until we get more evidence.
Wow moosy.
I have to give you 5 stars for this read. It's like you're inside my head or something. I had goosebumps reading this since it was so spot on.
You are absolutely right that my only exposure to mafia has been through watching the TI qualifiers hub, and later watching all stars mafia on youtube.
I really wanted to emulate the dynamic of a live environment, and went in trying to actively counter some of the things i picked up that a mafia would do.
From watching those live mafia games I learned that the number 1 trait of a mafia is to be silent. They would bide their time and look for arguments to bandwagon onto, often avoid getting into heated arguments if possible, and when attacked they would try to deflect onto another person.
I admit I am very excited to go out playing my first mafia game, and overracted by claiming my role before day 1 post(I did not know that this was frowned upon).
Another thing that I learned is that it doesn't matter if you are mafia or not, as long as you contribute to try solving the case, then it's good to keep people around just in case they are town, because then in the largest portion of games they would be a boon to you as a town.
This is Rexxar's best post. The goosebumps part sounds so legitimate and would be extremely creative to fake from the posts he made earlier. Slight town read
Slight townread on ruXxar. Then he doesn't mention ruXxar for a while, until:
On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote: Who I'm liking so far -
Wave Trfel n00bKing Damdred Oats
Probably wouldn't lynch today - Rels Kickstart
Could Lynch - Batsnacks Geript MoosyDoosy Sulfurus RuXxar
Including basically everyone who could be lynched today in the "Could Lynch" category. Again, note that he ends up voting for Rels, despite having included him in the "Probably wouldn't lynch today" category, the only reasons being sheeping me and this post:
On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote: KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder.
Finally, he's always saying he could lynch geript, without actually pushing it or doing anything about it. When the votes finally switched to geript, and scott31337 switched his own vote to geript, he didn't say anything whatsoever.
I need to move on, I'm running out of time, but I'm pretty confident that scott31337 is mafia. + Show Spoiler +
He's really not offering townreads, and he's throwing a LOT of suspicion around. This isn't necessarily alignment indicative, as town!Oatsmaster loves to throw suspicion around. However, his stance on Sulfurus is very suspicious.
On June 13 2015 11:11 Oatsmaster wrote: if bats flips town, ill be going after sulfurus.
On June 13 2015 18:40 Oatsmaster wrote: I would lynch geript if we don't lynch bats.
Finally, the voting analysis of Day 1 looks suspicious. He was hard scumreading batsnacks for a very long time, and eventually the votes went to batsnacks at 6, and Sulfurus at 4. Then Rels unvoted, and it looked like the batsnacks wagon was going to collapse. Instead of waiting for Sulfurus (who he already said he would lynch after batsnacks), Oatsmaster stayed around and waited until it looked like there was a good chance of a geript wagon, and then voted geript and went to sleep.
While he did townread Rels, he did this before the push on Rels began.
This is Oatsmaster trying to save Sulfurus, but not looking bad if he flips.
Concluding List Post!
Town Kickstart batsnacks WaveofShadow
Probably Town Rels (despite Sulfurus association) MoosyDoosy Damdred
Willing to vote for Kickstart early on, suggests that Kickstart is town Says that he would lynch Damdred Voted for batsnacks Rels town Would lynch Trfel Vote on Oatsmaster (final list post ignored due to WIFOM)
This suggests to me that Damdred is town and batsnacks is town, and also Kickstart town. It seems to hint at Rels being scummy. I don't think it says anything about Oatsmaster, because the wagons between Sulfurus and Kickstart were about even at this point. It looked fairly bad for Sulfurus here, so his vote on Oatsmaster isn't very useful (if he was really trying to stay alive, he would have voted for Kickstart, who he was comfortable scumreading).
This is the situation when scott31337 places his vote. He voted for Sulfurus here. At the time of his vote, there was a little less than 20 hours left in Day 1.
His vote for Sulfurus here doesn't actually mean that much. There's a lot of time left in the day, and it's likely that many people will switch votes. Still, his vote on Sulfurus leaves batsnacks in the vote lead, and when Sulfurus flips, it makes him look better. The only reason that mafia!scott31337 wouldn't want to vote for Sulfurus here is in case his vote ends up making the difference and he doesn't have an excuse to switch.
On June 13 2015 14:45 scott31337 wrote: He has not laid any of his battraps though, which makes me wonder, he almost always does this as town.
He said this to me in BBCode. There's something that he can use as an excuse to switch to batsnacks later. He says this before the Rels wagon started.
The Rels wagon is gaining steam and the batsnacks wagon is dying. It looks like the lynch will come down to Sulfurus and Rels, and it looks fairly close. Here, scott31337 switched to Rels from Sulfurus, bringing them to four votes each.
Rels is generally throwing around suspicions on everything. His townread on ruXxar changed after it was clear that the push on ruXxar wasn't going anywhere. He's scumreading people already being scumread by others, and multiple times he uses other people's posts to justify increasing his own suspicions of other people. + Show Spoiler [Examples] +
Criticizing MoosyDoosy's opening post (geript already did this) Suspicious of batsnacks (common suspicion), geript (WaveofShadow already said this), and MoosyDoosy (geript) Agrees with the suspicion I voiced on MoosyDoosy Immediately asked geript for his reason for being suspicious of scott31337, suddenly is more suspicious of him himself (see my previous post)
It seems like Rels is like a leaf in the wind, following thread sentiment, jumping on whatever works. He townreads people who are being townread already, he scumreads people who are being scumread, and only changes when the thread sentiment shifts.
The one major departure from this trend is when he townreads batsnacks. He did this before Damdred jumped in. This is a pretty big change in his read, and against the thread sentiment. However, I think that the way that Rels jumps on whatever suspicion is available every other time in the thread is quite telling.
I can get aboard this and feeling better then a Sulf lynch - you pulled a lot of work Trfel. You the man!
What has he said about Rels before this?
On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote: Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read.
On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote: Probably wouldn't lynch today - Rels
(rest of list post omitted)
On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote: KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder.
Given how his post before switching to Rels, he said this:
On June 13 2015 23:03 ruXxar wrote: I'm trying to figure out why people are scumreading sulfurus.
I read through his filter and I found nothing to make me read him as either alignment. I went through the voting history to see who voted for him. The kickstart vote was too early to judge for me, so I ignored it. The next one to vote is geript.
Reading through geripts filter I get a bad vibe.
On June 12 2015 10:27 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote: I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet.
I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great.
Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia?
And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us.
On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves.
people should be talking about this.
He pointed out that since noone jumped on moosy for this post, then moosy is mafia. This makes no sense to me. To me that post is filled with genuine excitement from a newbie. Seeing as I'm a newbie too i understand all to well how he must've felt in his early posts.
On June 13 2015 03:31 geript wrote:
On June 13 2015 03:22 WaveofShadow wrote: Geript I don't understand how you go from seemingly town-->scum-->town on moosy without any real change in anything he has done. Not following thought processes with you at all, though I think that actually might be standard for you and it annoys me.
Never assumed he was town to start w/ babycakes. Moreso: 1. Moosy makes a god awful post --> I think he's scum 2. No one pushes Moosy --> If he's town I'd expect someone to have jumped on him therefore scum 3. Posts a shit ton --> Probably just nubian with bad opening and mafia afk or otherwise engaged
On June 13 2015 05:29 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote: I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet.
I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great.
Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia?
And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us.
On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves.
Did you look at this post at all?
He's commenting about things that don't really matter in a way that he's seemingly had some interesting thought on it. He asks a question that's essentially a statement. He meanders through potentially interesting topics while giving no opinion on anything. Then he plays the dumbtell card.
It's a big post that literally offers nothing while commenting on things in a way that confer a formed opinion. It almost can be boiled down to: "I've been thinking about this game, but I won't really comment on it at all. What do you guys think about this random stuff?" I don't see even newer town players do that often.
Then he gets into an argument with waveofshadow who also picks up on his inconsistency in alignment on moosy.
I can't see his reasoning for voting on sulfurous. Basically he said 2 things about sulfurous:
On June 13 2015 03:08 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 10:12 Sulfurus wrote: I'm starting to really like the case on Kickstarter; he has made a lot of posts that give the illusion of being a helpful towny with his PSA and rule clarifications but they are really just filler and something that the mods already have covered.
On top of that I think n00bKing's defense of ruXx is spot on which gives even more validity to the Kickstarter push.
##Vote: Kickstarter
(I admit that in a vacuum I would probably scum read Bats more but I've learned my lesson from last game)
This post is pretty bad.
and
On June 13 2015 05:12 geript wrote:
On June 13 2015 04:37 Sulfurus wrote: @geript That's good that you no longer scum read Moosy but Bats hasn't made the same realization you have and you townread two of the people voting on him. So what do you think of him?
I'd rather lynch you.
Then kickstart says this which aligns with my own thinking.
On June 13 2015 06:03 Kickstart wrote: Went through geript's filter. His move off moosy and onto sulfurus was weird to me. He just said "id rather lynch you" in this thread, then voted in the other thread, and hasn't mentioned it at all. strange.
This give me a townlean on kickstart.
I still think bats is our best lynch for day 1, but geript has raised a red flag for me. I want to know why he's voting for sulfurus.
Why does this just scream "save sulfurus" for some reason to me?
It seems like he was preparing to look good for bussing Sulfurus, but left himself an out to vote for batsnacks if necessary, and then decided to join the Rels wagon when he had a chance. This feels rather scummy.
Along with Sulfurus, scott31337 voted for Kickstart to bring the wagons to Kickstart with five votes and Sulfurus with six. Despite this being close, it became clear that Sulfurus was going to be lynched, so scott31337 switched votes to Sulfurus.
On June 17 2015 06:49 scott31337 wrote: If Sulf is mafia then I'll look like shit
Trfel is my believer and WoS is my believer they want Sulf dead Sulf isn't doing shit Let's go Sulf then fuhq it
And he's well aware that Sulfurus flipping red makes him look bad.
On June 13 2015 02:08 scott31337 wrote: Geript has four posts and very little content. I know he's good as mafia - but on the scum side of null for now.
He scumreads geript here, but uses the reason that geript is good at mafia to weaken his argument. As a result, he doesn't push this at all (and it would be hard to push geript, because he is a strong player).
He also scumreads MoosyDoosy and batsnacks, back when MoosyDoosy was a very easy target and batsnacks was scumread by most people.
On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote: Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read.
It makes no sense whatsoever for town!scott31337 to townread Rels for scumreading the person he replaced for his one post. Assuming that scott31337 is town, he townreads Rels for scumreading someone who scott31337 knows is town and was only able to make one (useless) post. There is no reason whatsoever that Rels should get a townread for this. To me, this feels like scott31337 is attempting to pocket Rels, which makes sense given that Rels would naturally be suspicious of him after the replacement. His explanation here adds that he townread Rels for strongly believing this case, but mafia!Rels has no reason NOT to push his case so strongly because he knows that Fake)Plants is town (thus an easy mislynch) and that he almost certainly won't provide strong resistance.
On June 12 2015 11:33 MoosyDoosy wrote: ^ Also Kickstart, I wouldn't read too much into ruXx's initial post where he's rambling about slapping/daydreaming about Mafia. It might have been from an attempt to identify himself as a non-aggressor to the Mafia so that when night time comes around, they don't kill him. If the game went on for longer, people would also suspect ruXx more giving the Mafia an easy kill. This actually happens a ton in real life Mafia but it's clear it's totally different online at this point.
Also, going back to his post where he "misses the interaction" which is right after his rambling, it's pretty clear that ruXx is not paying attention whatsoever. As a newbie he was probably just as excited as I was about remaining passive which is why he didn't notice the err in his post. Just the fact that it seems he has no idea whatsoever about what he's saying during his rambling just shows this too.
I'll look through the rest of your points, but I'll try and provide a "newbie perspective." Either way, it looks like he wised up real fast and stopped being as frantic and energetic in his posts.
On June 12 2015 11:38 MoosyDoosy wrote: Yeah, the more I read of ruXx's initial posts, the more it seems he's thinking in terms of a real life Mafia game as well as tryharding a bit.
Him intercepting a question was him tryharding a basic read and him supporting lying is from a real life Mafia mindset since lying is much more common in real life.
The last two posts that you point out are kind of shady but even then they err on the side of newbie to online Mafia. Overall I wouldn't vote him just yet until we get more evidence.
Wow moosy.
I have to give you 5 stars for this read. It's like you're inside my head or something. I had goosebumps reading this since it was so spot on.
You are absolutely right that my only exposure to mafia has been through watching the TI qualifiers hub, and later watching all stars mafia on youtube.
I really wanted to emulate the dynamic of a live environment, and went in trying to actively counter some of the things i picked up that a mafia would do.
From watching those live mafia games I learned that the number 1 trait of a mafia is to be silent. They would bide their time and look for arguments to bandwagon onto, often avoid getting into heated arguments if possible, and when attacked they would try to deflect onto another person.
I admit I am very excited to go out playing my first mafia game, and overracted by claiming my role before day 1 post(I did not know that this was frowned upon).
Another thing that I learned is that it doesn't matter if you are mafia or not, as long as you contribute to try solving the case, then it's good to keep people around just in case they are town, because then in the largest portion of games they would be a boon to you as a town.
This is Rexxar's best post. The goosebumps part sounds so legitimate and would be extremely creative to fake from the posts he made earlier. Slight town read
Slight townread on ruXxar. Then he doesn't mention ruXxar for a while, until:
On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote: Who I'm liking so far -
Wave Trfel n00bKing Damdred Oats
Probably wouldn't lynch today - Rels Kickstart
Could Lynch - Batsnacks Geript MoosyDoosy Sulfurus RuXxar
Including basically everyone who could be lynched today in the "Could Lynch" category. Again, note that he ends up voting for Rels, despite having included him in the "Probably wouldn't lynch today" category, the only reasons being sheeping me and this post:
On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote: KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder.
Finally, he's always saying he could lynch geript, without actually pushing it or doing anything about it. When the votes finally switched to geript, and scott31337 switched his own vote to geript, he didn't say anything whatsoever.
I need to move on, I'm running out of time, but I'm pretty confident that scott31337 is mafia.
He's really not offering townreads, and he's throwing a LOT of suspicion around. This isn't necessarily alignment indicative, as town!Oatsmaster loves to throw suspicion around. However, his stance on Sulfurus is very suspicious.
On June 13 2015 11:11 Oatsmaster wrote: if bats flips town, ill be going after sulfurus.
On June 13 2015 18:40 Oatsmaster wrote: I would lynch geript if we don't lynch bats.
Finally, the voting analysis of Day 1 looks suspicious. He was hard scumreading batsnacks for a very long time, and eventually the votes went to batsnacks at 6, and Sulfurus at 4. Then Rels unvoted, and it looked like the batsnacks wagon was going to collapse. Instead of waiting for Sulfurus (who he already said he would lynch after batsnacks), Oatsmaster stayed around and waited until it looked like there was a good chance of a geript wagon, and then voted geript and went to sleep.
While he did townread Rels, he did this before the push on Rels began.
This is Oatsmaster trying to save Sulfurus, but not looking bad if he flips.
Concluding List Post!
Town Kickstart batsnacks WaveofShadow
Probably Town Rels (despite Sulfurus association) MoosyDoosy Damdred
So the first part, is when I townread Rels, I wrote what I meant incorrectly. I wasn't townreading him for calling out my replacement, I was townreading him even if he called out my replacement. I posted this a little bit later.
On June 12 2015 10:44 Oatsmaster wrote: Anyway Trfel, what makes bats town?
I had a town lean on batsnacks due to the balance between his jokes and serious reads. Since then, batsnacks has been much more serious, and his jokes are few and far between, so this read isn't valid any more.
On June 12 2015 10:51 Oatsmaster wrote: NAI is a new thing lol.
I kinda like ruxxar. It was really funny that he answered a question not directed at him asking why people shouldnt answer questions not directed at them.
He doesnt do it intentionally to just create content IMO.
(bold added) So if he doesn't do it intentionally, then why is it towny?
On June 12 2015 15:03 n00bKing wrote: It's also worth noting that RuXx purposely furthered the conversation about Town players lying, AFTER he saw that some other players were reacting negatively to what he had said. If a Newbie scum player saw that what he had said was causing some raised eyebrows, he might clam up or change the subject, to get beyond the comment that had raised suspicion, and bury it. Instead, he challenges the people who expressed a contradictory viewpoint, which ensures that no readers who come along later will gloss over what he's said.
You could try to say that he didn't realize it was a controversial statement when he first made it. But even after it was clear to him (based on the posts of other players) that it was a controversial statement, he stuck to it, and called more attention to it. Again, I feel like this is boldness you would seldom see from an inexperienced scum player.
This point about ruXxar continuing to press the lying issue is good. I guess I judged ruXxar too early.
##unvote
On June 12 2015 16:35 Rels wrote: Hello everybody, GL HF!
I'll read the thread now and comment on things. See you soon.
I really don't like this post at all. Posting without having read the thread is useless, the only thing it helps with is making it look like you're doing more work that you actually are, and it detracts from scumhunting. But making a useless post after the investigation has already started is pathetic.
On June 13 2015 00:22 Rels wrote: Alright ruxxar I was unsure how to read you. But with this post I now believe you're a super excited townie. I too believe that we should not let mafia the ability to stay silent.
Rels, what about ruXxar's post made you say this?
On June 13 2015 01:10 WaveofShadow wrote: I can't decide now if I think geript and bats could be scum together for this horribleness. Association cases = bad but I can't help it and I THINK it's probably not the case. One of them at least for sure though.
I have no idea why someone as experienced as WaveofShadow would share a potential association case while in the same post acknowledging that association cases are bad. Please explain.
On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote: Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read.
Why does calling out the player with only one post, who needs to get replaced, make someone town? Especially because, if you are town, he called out the easiest player to pick on who happens to be confirmed town.
I really don't like batsnacks' response to the pressure on him. Batsnacks doesn't normally react like this, he's fine under pressure. In my first game playing with him, I tunneled him for basically all of Day 1 and Night 1, and he made a post telling people to stop arguing about useless things and read the case I had posted on him.
I need to read some filters, but batsnacks seems very active, concerned about his safety, but not providing actual content.
On June 13 2015 06:42 n00bKing wrote:
On June 13 2015 03:28 geript wrote:
On June 13 2015 03:25 batsnacks wrote: I don't know what geripts alignment is...
Clearly that guy is 3P.
I don't know what 3P means either.
Third party.
Let me rephrase this since I see what you are saying but I didn't type that properly. Rels made a case on my replacement slot that he believed in, and caught Plants in a "lie" - I saw him a slight town read for believing in his case. I meant more of (even if he is calling out my replacement slot).
For the vote, KS was looking a bit better, and yes I was a bit unsure. I only had about 20 minutes. I went with the right decision. I've been scumming Sulf for most of the game - I voted for him day 1 for a tie breaker. I admit, my vote was late and didn't swing what would happen anyway. It's also after sulf flipped I saw what might be coming "inb4 scott bussed sulfurus" - I didn't have much time. Moosy (our dead doctor) saw the above as well, including the vote.
As for your townread of Rels, I saw that explanation and I referred to it in my post. Again, there is no reason whatsoever that you would townread Rels as town. Rels' scumread of Fake)Plants was almost all of his filter by the point when you posted this. If not for his scumread of Fake)Plants (which is still what your post reads like to me), what were you townreading Rels for?
As for you scumreading Sulfurus all game, you didn't mention that at all when you switched.
On June 17 2015 06:43 scott31337 wrote: Grrr I haven't like KS all game - his wall of text isn't that great but it's something....I like who's on Sulfurs better, but the last three times I've used that suggestion, Its because the mafia were on the other side and enough townies on the ML anyway I'm going with KS.
On June 17 2015 06:49 scott31337 wrote: If Sulf is mafia then I'll look like shit
Trfel is my believer and WoS is my believer they want Sulf dead Sulf isn't doing shit Let's go Sulf then fuhq it
On June 17 2015 06:45 Sulfurus wrote: ##Vote: Kickstarter
Fuck that Ninja
Sulfurus it is I'm not switching again Battraps(tm)
You didn't mention any actual reasons that Sulfurus is scummy at all.
On June 18 2015 07:35 ruXxar wrote: Trfel: why do you never read my filter?
I feel kinda disappointed that you had no opinion of me .
Sorry, I'll get to you soon enough. Last isn't always least!
On June 18 2015 09:27 WaveofShadow wrote: K reading through Trfel's scott post in greater detail---I agree with the fact that the amount of time left in the day means the Sulfurus vote doesn't mean a lot on the surface, but you have to consider the mafia mindset. What scummer is going to actively place a teammate in the running when he would previously have been under no threat? Why risk it at that point ESPECIALLY when it's so early? For potential towncred in a situation when we discuss it exactly like this? I would argue the potential towncred gained is no even remotely worth the risk, especially to a typical scummer, not to mention considering he barely discusses sulfurus at all he doesn't deserve a great deal of towncred for that swap to begin with.
The D2 voting analysis is sorta meh, I admit it doesn't make him look amazing but I think D1 trumps this a little.
Assuming that scott31337 is mafia, he replaced into the game late, and Sulfurus was one of his teammates. Neither of them had very much thread presence at all. With batsnacks posting so much and being willing to defend himself, even with scott31337's vote pushing batsnacks ahead 7 to 4, the batsnacks wagon was still likely to lose steam. But it does feel somewhat risky from a mafia mindset, and this is EXACTLY why he left himself an out to switch to batsnacks. If the batsnacks train collapsed, scott31337 comes out looking pretty good (smooth bus), and if there's a chance, he could have switched wagons and probably would have been largely unscathed.
Given the way he readily jumped off of the wagon at a potentially key moment, I don't feel like scott31337 put Sulfurus in much additional danger at all on Day 1.
On June 19 2015 03:42 batsnacks wrote: Sulfur's strategy d1 is getting on my wagon asap and townreading the other people who voted and stayed on my wagon. Sulfur is "rewarding" n00b and ruxxar with town reads because they are pushing an agenda that benefits him. Sulfur does not need to reward his scum mates to get them to push his agenda, they do it for free.
K now I'm about to possibly get controversial. Re-reading sulfur's filter again, oats is town. I will show you why with sulfur's oats case:
On June 16 2015 15:32 Sulfurus wrote: K I just realized that Oats is scummy.
I looked through his filter and minus the fluff it's just him asking questions (interspersed with attempts to discredit towny posts)
Now I'm sure n00b would be quick to remind me that asking questions is actually towny as it provides valuable scum hunting information But even if Oats has gotten anything from his posts he hasn't actually provided any of it to the thread in fact it's likely that his questions are helping mafia more then town.
##Vote: Oatsmaster
Look where sulfur says oats is discrediting n00b and Rels townie posts. Sulfur is defending their posts from the big bad bully oats. Newer mafia players do this a lot as scum; they defend townies from aggressive/abrasive town players and scum read them because they believe that the abrasive townie's attitude will make them easier to mislynch. They believe they are earning town points from saving other townie's from the bully. This also implies that Rels is town.
And what prevents newer mafia players from defending townies from aggressive/abrasive scum players because they know that their arguments are false?
On June 19 2015 04:36 batsnacks wrote: I just remembered that sulfur hard defended Rels and rux from trfel d1. This is very likely a case of sulfur defending town from town, which he also did with oats and Rels/n00b. If Trfel is mafia sulfur is not going to hard defend two townies from him.
Scott/Damdred final answer.
Despite your conclusion, this is a bad argument.
On June 19 2015 05:40 Rels wrote: Last thought of the day: this push is too easy. So easy. There is 6 people voting scott, and WOS was here and did nothing to interrupt that: so that's 7 people out of 9, and 2 mafia left. Statistically, there is at least one mafia on these 7, who is currently is not doing anything to make the thread move.
And I can apply this theory for the whole day. Almost nothing happened, and scott was the most likely train from the very beginning. I know for a fact ruxx and Oats were here and did nothing, for example.
So to me everybody is happy with the lynch going this way: town 'cause scott is super scummy, AND mafia.
So it seems that the mafia team is happy with scott going down. It can mean: - scott is not defendable - scott is townie
There's only two mafia left, and since this assumes that scott31337 is mafia, then there's only one other. Honestly, I feel like scott31337 is being more and more obviously mafia as the day goes, and I don't really see how scum could defend him here.
On June 19 2015 05:40 Rels wrote: Last thought of the day: this push is too easy. So easy. There is 6 people voting scott, and WOS was here and did nothing to interrupt that: so that's 7 people out of 9, and 2 mafia left. Statistically, there is at least one mafia on these 7, who is currently is not doing anything to make the thread move.
And I can apply this theory for the whole day. Almost nothing happened, and scott was the most likely train from the very beginning. I know for a fact ruxx and Oats were here and did nothing, for example.
So to me everybody is happy with the lynch going this way: town 'cause scott is super scummy, AND mafia.
So it seems that the mafia team is happy with scott going down. It can mean: - scott is not defendable - scott is townie
I am glad you are thinking about this option - It always has made me wonder when a lynch comes too easily without defense. In six games, I have never bussed before, but everyone thinks I'm the bus master. I explained my voting reasons before, but I'll try again -
I was on Sulfurus at a pitoval point on Day 1 - but then I saw Batsnacks case and it made a lot of sense, and I voted for it. A regret now (plus among the hour being earlier then anyone thought) which sucked.
For day 2 - I was in my other mafia game (Guardians) and thought this game would be over already, but it was not - it continued for another day and I was almost able to pull off a victory from triple lylo - but I was unable to - I did reading in this thread as well, posted about Oats, read about KS's comeback - and had about twenty minutes to vote. I picked KS at first, and then my top towns were on Sulfurus, so I switched votes. You're right, it looks kinda bad - I guess even worse if I left my vote on KS - Oats and Rels did.
Scott31337 is ignoring the points I've brought against him. He happily omits switching off of Sulfurus to vote for Rels, and how he provided no original reasons for voting for Rels and for geript. He keeps saying how he voted for Sulfurus at a pivotal moment, when it really wasn't that crucial (especially knowing that he and Sulfurus didn't have much thread presence, thus lacked ability to move the lynch effectively). Once again he makes activity excuses, and says that his vote looked bad.
But he's dodging the facts, and he's being inconsistent in his defense. When he actually switched to Sulfurus Day 2, his posts clearly show that he was voting with his top towns and with just because Sulfurus was ninja voting, he didn't bring up any actual reasons to suspect Sulfurus at all. Last time he explained his vote switch at the end of Day 2, he added the line "I've been scumming Sulf for most of the game", which wasn't something he mentioned at all when he actually switched votes.
And now he didn't bring that up in his latest explanation of the vote switch.
I'm really not sure about people scumreading Damdred. I've scumread Damdred the last few games I've played, and really it's just made the games an unfriendly yelling match (and he's always been town). From what I've seen of Damdred this game, he's been a bit underwhelming but he still feels towny, primarily for the way he pushed Sulfurus.
On June 14 2015 00:25 Damdred wrote: What was the case on sul? I just read his filter, its interesting but the only problem I see is his subtle change on bats and went along with thread sentiment a bit.
Geript is weird I give you that.
On June 14 2015 00:59 Damdred wrote: That's not a bad point about sulfus. But I'm not sure it's alignment indicative necessarily, some times people get side tracked.
Geript yea I didn't like his filter parts of it seemed pointless, abd his argument with wave just read weird to me. I could,vote for,geript
On June 14 2015 05:02 Damdred wrote: Then explain how he is trying in your opinion.
And I just like the case wave, I could probably lynch sulf to.
On June 15 2015 01:12 Damdred wrote: Well firstly I always hunt scum,by hunting tow first anyone who,has played any amount of,games with me knows this.
I'd lynch rox sulf and rels one of them tommorow
On June 15 2015 05:31 Damdred wrote: If I was the vig I'd shoot rel and we lynch sul tomorrow.
On June 15 2015 07:16 Damdred wrote: Voting rels.
I will post more later 2 hours left at work
On June 16 2015 05:44 Damdred wrote: I don't mind my name being thrown around I'm either moving to sul or ruxxar.
I'll be more active shortly
Then he does this mini push on ruXxar, but the push doesn't go anywhere. At the same time that he was saying that Kickstart probably was going to flip town, he was voting for ruXxar.
On June 17 2015 03:44 Damdred wrote: Anyway idk if Ks will flip town, but my gut says he will. I hope he doesn't and I'm wrong but rux just feels the scummiest from his geripts vote to some of his other things meh
Here he says that he felt that ruXxar was the scummiest.
On June 17 2015 04:16 Damdred wrote: Ok so id lynch Sul instead that was a super mafia type post
On June 17 2015 04:17 Damdred wrote: Look at what Sul said that town is super tunneled oj Ks. That implies that Ks is town. But then says I'll just vote Ks cause he's mafia.
the two sentiments don't make sense.
On June 17 2015 04:39 Damdred wrote: I'll consolidate on rux or Sul. I'd rather not lynch Ks today
On the surface, this doesn't look that good for Damdred. But looking closer, his pushes make no sense from a mafia perspective.
Imagine that Damdred is mafia with Sulfurus. He slightly defended Sulfurus Day 1, then joined the Rels wagon early Day 2. Then the Rels wagon collapsed, and the voting looked very open. Damdred pushed ruXxar, and there were two votes on ruXxar(a considerable amount in comparison to the other wagons), and the other person voting for ruXxar was batsnacks (generally townread). However, Damdred had already prevented himself from switching to Kickstart.
Here, though, Damdred jumps to vote for his mafia buddy Sulfurus. The only person voting for Sulfurus at the time was Kickstart, who was widely scumread. While Damdred didn't push Sulfurus that much and left some room to go back to ruXxar (though this didn't seem at all likely to actually happen), I just don't see mafia!Damdred playing like this; ie, defending Sulfurus and looking for other wagons, then suddenly jumping to bus Sulfurus for no real reason, when it really didn't need to happen. Damdred could probably have just lynched Kickstart, and had a fair chance (along with batsnacks) at pushing ruXxar's lynch over Sulfurus. (ignoring the case of ruXxar also being scum because I don't see Damdred leaving his only wagon options as his two scum buddies)
On June 19 2015 03:42 batsnacks wrote: Sulfur's strategy d1 is getting on my wagon asap and townreading the other people who voted and stayed on my wagon. Sulfur is "rewarding" n00b and ruxxar with town reads because they are pushing an agenda that benefits him. Sulfur does not need to reward his scum mates to get them to push his agenda, they do it for free.
K now I'm about to possibly get controversial. Re-reading sulfur's filter again, oats is town. I will show you why with sulfur's oats case:
On June 16 2015 15:32 Sulfurus wrote: K I just realized that Oats is scummy.
I looked through his filter and minus the fluff it's just him asking questions (interspersed with attempts to discredit towny posts)
Now I'm sure n00b would be quick to remind me that asking questions is actually towny as it provides valuable scum hunting information But even if Oats has gotten anything from his posts he hasn't actually provided any of it to the thread in fact it's likely that his questions are helping mafia more then town.
##Vote: Oatsmaster
Look where sulfur says oats is discrediting n00b and Rels townie posts. Sulfur is defending their posts from the big bad bully oats. Newer mafia players do this a lot as scum; they defend townies from aggressive/abrasive town players and scum read them because they believe that the abrasive townie's attitude will make them easier to mislynch. They believe they are earning town points from saving other townie's from the bully. This also implies that Rels is town.
And what prevents newer mafia players from defending townies from aggressive/abrasive scum players because they know that their arguments are false?
On June 19 2015 04:36 batsnacks wrote: I just remembered that sulfur hard defended Rels and rux from trfel d1. This is very likely a case of sulfur defending town from town, which he also did with oats and Rels/n00b. If Trfel is mafia sulfur is not going to hard defend two townies from him.
Scott/Damdred final answer.
Despite your conclusion, this is a bad argument.
On June 19 2015 05:40 Rels wrote: Last thought of the day: this push is too easy. So easy. There is 6 people voting scott, and WOS was here and did nothing to interrupt that: so that's 7 people out of 9, and 2 mafia left. Statistically, there is at least one mafia on these 7, who is currently is not doing anything to make the thread move.
And I can apply this theory for the whole day. Almost nothing happened, and scott was the most likely train from the very beginning. I know for a fact ruxx and Oats were here and did nothing, for example.
So to me everybody is happy with the lynch going this way: town 'cause scott is super scummy, AND mafia.
So it seems that the mafia team is happy with scott going down. It can mean: - scott is not defendable - scott is townie
There's only two mafia left, and since this assumes that scott31337 is mafia, then there's only one other. Honestly, I feel like scott31337 is being more and more obviously mafia as the day goes, and I don't really see how scum could defend him here.
On June 19 2015 08:39 scott31337 wrote:
On June 19 2015 05:40 Rels wrote: Last thought of the day: this push is too easy. So easy. There is 6 people voting scott, and WOS was here and did nothing to interrupt that: so that's 7 people out of 9, and 2 mafia left. Statistically, there is at least one mafia on these 7, who is currently is not doing anything to make the thread move.
And I can apply this theory for the whole day. Almost nothing happened, and scott was the most likely train from the very beginning. I know for a fact ruxx and Oats were here and did nothing, for example.
So to me everybody is happy with the lynch going this way: town 'cause scott is super scummy, AND mafia.
So it seems that the mafia team is happy with scott going down. It can mean: - scott is not defendable - scott is townie
I am glad you are thinking about this option - It always has made me wonder when a lynch comes too easily without defense. In six games, I have never bussed before, but everyone thinks I'm the bus master. I explained my voting reasons before, but I'll try again -
I was on Sulfurus at a pitoval point on Day 1 - but then I saw Batsnacks case and it made a lot of sense, and I voted for it. A regret now (plus among the hour being earlier then anyone thought) which sucked.
For day 2 - I was in my other mafia game (Guardians) and thought this game would be over already, but it was not - it continued for another day and I was almost able to pull off a victory from triple lylo - but I was unable to - I did reading in this thread as well, posted about Oats, read about KS's comeback - and had about twenty minutes to vote. I picked KS at first, and then my top towns were on Sulfurus, so I switched votes. You're right, it looks kinda bad - I guess even worse if I left my vote on KS - Oats and Rels did.
Scott31337 is ignoring the points I've brought against him. He happily omits switching off of Sulfurus to vote for Rels, and how he provided no original reasons for voting for Rels and for geript. He keeps saying how he voted for Sulfurus at a pivotal moment, when it really wasn't that crucial (especially knowing that he and Sulfurus didn't have much thread presence, thus lacked ability to move the lynch effectively). Once again he makes activity excuses, and says that his vote looked bad.
But he's dodging the facts, and he's being inconsistent in his defense. When he actually switched to Sulfurus Day 2, his posts clearly show that he was voting with his top towns and with just because Sulfurus was ninja voting, he didn't bring up any actual reasons to suspect Sulfurus at all. Last time he explained his vote switch at the end of Day 2, he added the line "I've been scumming Sulf for most of the game", which wasn't something he mentioned at all when he actually switched votes.
And now he didn't bring that up in his latest explanation of the vote switch.
I'm really not sure about people scumreading Damdred. I've scumread Damdred the last few games I've played, and really it's just made the games an unfriendly yelling match (and he's always been town). From what I've seen of Damdred this game, he's been a bit underwhelming but he still feels towny, primarily for the way he pushed Sulfurus.
Willing to vote for Kickstart early on, suggests that Kickstart is town Says that he would lynch Damdred Voted for batsnacks Rels town Would lynch Trfel Vote on Oatsmaster (final list post ignored due to WIFOM)
This suggests to me that Damdred is town and batsnacks is town, and also Kickstart town. It seems to hint at Rels being scummy. I don't think it says anything about Oatsmaster, because the wagons between Sulfurus and Kickstart were about even at this point. It looked fairly bad for Sulfurus here, so his vote on Oatsmaster isn't very useful (if he was really trying to stay alive, he would have voted for Kickstart, who he was comfortable scumreading).
This is the situation when scott31337 places his vote. He voted for Sulfurus here. At the time of his vote, there was a little less than 20 hours left in Day 1.
His vote for Sulfurus here doesn't actually mean that much. There's a lot of time left in the day, and it's likely that many people will switch votes. Still, his vote on Sulfurus leaves batsnacks in the vote lead, and when Sulfurus flips, it makes him look better. The only reason that mafia!scott31337 wouldn't want to vote for Sulfurus here is in case his vote ends up making the difference and he doesn't have an excuse to switch.
On June 13 2015 14:45 scott31337 wrote: He has not laid any of his battraps though, which makes me wonder, he almost always does this as town.
He said this to me in BBCode. There's something that he can use as an excuse to switch to batsnacks later. He says this before the Rels wagon started.
The Rels wagon is gaining steam and the batsnacks wagon is dying. It looks like the lynch will come down to Sulfurus and Rels, and it looks fairly close. Here, scott31337 switched to Rels from Sulfurus, bringing them to four votes each.
Rels is generally throwing around suspicions on everything. His townread on ruXxar changed after it was clear that the push on ruXxar wasn't going anywhere. He's scumreading people already being scumread by others, and multiple times he uses other people's posts to justify increasing his own suspicions of other people. + Show Spoiler [Examples] +
Criticizing MoosyDoosy's opening post (geript already did this) Suspicious of batsnacks (common suspicion), geript (WaveofShadow already said this), and MoosyDoosy (geript) Agrees with the suspicion I voiced on MoosyDoosy Immediately asked geript for his reason for being suspicious of scott31337, suddenly is more suspicious of him himself (see my previous post)
It seems like Rels is like a leaf in the wind, following thread sentiment, jumping on whatever works. He townreads people who are being townread already, he scumreads people who are being scumread, and only changes when the thread sentiment shifts.
The one major departure from this trend is when he townreads batsnacks. He did this before Damdred jumped in. This is a pretty big change in his read, and against the thread sentiment. However, I think that the way that Rels jumps on whatever suspicion is available every other time in the thread is quite telling.
I can get aboard this and feeling better then a Sulf lynch - you pulled a lot of work Trfel. You the man!
What has he said about Rels before this?
On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote: Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read.
On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote: Probably wouldn't lynch today - Rels
(rest of list post omitted)
On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote: KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder.
Given how his post before switching to Rels, he said this:
On June 13 2015 23:03 ruXxar wrote: I'm trying to figure out why people are scumreading sulfurus.
I read through his filter and I found nothing to make me read him as either alignment. I went through the voting history to see who voted for him. The kickstart vote was too early to judge for me, so I ignored it. The next one to vote is geript.
Reading through geripts filter I get a bad vibe.
On June 12 2015 10:27 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote: I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet.
I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great.
Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia?
And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us.
On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves.
people should be talking about this.
He pointed out that since noone jumped on moosy for this post, then moosy is mafia. This makes no sense to me. To me that post is filled with genuine excitement from a newbie. Seeing as I'm a newbie too i understand all to well how he must've felt in his early posts.
On June 13 2015 03:31 geript wrote:
On June 13 2015 03:22 WaveofShadow wrote: Geript I don't understand how you go from seemingly town-->scum-->town on moosy without any real change in anything he has done. Not following thought processes with you at all, though I think that actually might be standard for you and it annoys me.
Never assumed he was town to start w/ babycakes. Moreso: 1. Moosy makes a god awful post --> I think he's scum 2. No one pushes Moosy --> If he's town I'd expect someone to have jumped on him therefore scum 3. Posts a shit ton --> Probably just nubian with bad opening and mafia afk or otherwise engaged
On June 13 2015 05:29 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote: I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet.
I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great.
Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia?
And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us.
On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves.
Did you look at this post at all?
He's commenting about things that don't really matter in a way that he's seemingly had some interesting thought on it. He asks a question that's essentially a statement. He meanders through potentially interesting topics while giving no opinion on anything. Then he plays the dumbtell card.
It's a big post that literally offers nothing while commenting on things in a way that confer a formed opinion. It almost can be boiled down to: "I've been thinking about this game, but I won't really comment on it at all. What do you guys think about this random stuff?" I don't see even newer town players do that often.
Then he gets into an argument with waveofshadow who also picks up on his inconsistency in alignment on moosy.
I can't see his reasoning for voting on sulfurous. Basically he said 2 things about sulfurous:
On June 13 2015 03:08 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 10:12 Sulfurus wrote: I'm starting to really like the case on Kickstarter; he has made a lot of posts that give the illusion of being a helpful towny with his PSA and rule clarifications but they are really just filler and something that the mods already have covered.
On top of that I think n00bKing's defense of ruXx is spot on which gives even more validity to the Kickstarter push.
##Vote: Kickstarter
(I admit that in a vacuum I would probably scum read Bats more but I've learned my lesson from last game)
This post is pretty bad.
and
On June 13 2015 05:12 geript wrote:
On June 13 2015 04:37 Sulfurus wrote: @geript That's good that you no longer scum read Moosy but Bats hasn't made the same realization you have and you townread two of the people voting on him. So what do you think of him?
I'd rather lynch you.
Then kickstart says this which aligns with my own thinking.
On June 13 2015 06:03 Kickstart wrote: Went through geript's filter. His move off moosy and onto sulfurus was weird to me. He just said "id rather lynch you" in this thread, then voted in the other thread, and hasn't mentioned it at all. strange.
This give me a townlean on kickstart.
I still think bats is our best lynch for day 1, but geript has raised a red flag for me. I want to know why he's voting for sulfurus.
Why does this just scream "save sulfurus" for some reason to me?
It seems like he was preparing to look good for bussing Sulfurus, but left himself an out to vote for batsnacks if necessary, and then decided to join the Rels wagon when he had a chance. This feels rather scummy.
Along with Sulfurus, scott31337 voted for Kickstart to bring the wagons to Kickstart with five votes and Sulfurus with six. Despite this being close, it became clear that Sulfurus was going to be lynched, so scott31337 switched votes to Sulfurus.
On June 17 2015 06:49 scott31337 wrote: If Sulf is mafia then I'll look like shit
Trfel is my believer and WoS is my believer they want Sulf dead Sulf isn't doing shit Let's go Sulf then fuhq it
And he's well aware that Sulfurus flipping red makes him look bad.
On June 13 2015 02:08 scott31337 wrote: Geript has four posts and very little content. I know he's good as mafia - but on the scum side of null for now.
He scumreads geript here, but uses the reason that geript is good at mafia to weaken his argument. As a result, he doesn't push this at all (and it would be hard to push geript, because he is a strong player).
He also scumreads MoosyDoosy and batsnacks, back when MoosyDoosy was a very easy target and batsnacks was scumread by most people.
On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote: Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read.
It makes no sense whatsoever for town!scott31337 to townread Rels for scumreading the person he replaced for his one post. Assuming that scott31337 is town, he townreads Rels for scumreading someone who scott31337 knows is town and was only able to make one (useless) post. There is no reason whatsoever that Rels should get a townread for this. To me, this feels like scott31337 is attempting to pocket Rels, which makes sense given that Rels would naturally be suspicious of him after the replacement. His explanation here adds that he townread Rels for strongly believing this case, but mafia!Rels has no reason NOT to push his case so strongly because he knows that Fake)Plants is town (thus an easy mislynch) and that he almost certainly won't provide strong resistance.
On June 12 2015 11:33 MoosyDoosy wrote: ^ Also Kickstart, I wouldn't read too much into ruXx's initial post where he's rambling about slapping/daydreaming about Mafia. It might have been from an attempt to identify himself as a non-aggressor to the Mafia so that when night time comes around, they don't kill him. If the game went on for longer, people would also suspect ruXx more giving the Mafia an easy kill. This actually happens a ton in real life Mafia but it's clear it's totally different online at this point.
Also, going back to his post where he "misses the interaction" which is right after his rambling, it's pretty clear that ruXx is not paying attention whatsoever. As a newbie he was probably just as excited as I was about remaining passive which is why he didn't notice the err in his post. Just the fact that it seems he has no idea whatsoever about what he's saying during his rambling just shows this too.
I'll look through the rest of your points, but I'll try and provide a "newbie perspective." Either way, it looks like he wised up real fast and stopped being as frantic and energetic in his posts.
On June 12 2015 11:38 MoosyDoosy wrote: Yeah, the more I read of ruXx's initial posts, the more it seems he's thinking in terms of a real life Mafia game as well as tryharding a bit.
Him intercepting a question was him tryharding a basic read and him supporting lying is from a real life Mafia mindset since lying is much more common in real life.
The last two posts that you point out are kind of shady but even then they err on the side of newbie to online Mafia. Overall I wouldn't vote him just yet until we get more evidence.
Wow moosy.
I have to give you 5 stars for this read. It's like you're inside my head or something. I had goosebumps reading this since it was so spot on.
You are absolutely right that my only exposure to mafia has been through watching the TI qualifiers hub, and later watching all stars mafia on youtube.
I really wanted to emulate the dynamic of a live environment, and went in trying to actively counter some of the things i picked up that a mafia would do.
From watching those live mafia games I learned that the number 1 trait of a mafia is to be silent. They would bide their time and look for arguments to bandwagon onto, often avoid getting into heated arguments if possible, and when attacked they would try to deflect onto another person.
I admit I am very excited to go out playing my first mafia game, and overracted by claiming my role before day 1 post(I did not know that this was frowned upon).
Another thing that I learned is that it doesn't matter if you are mafia or not, as long as you contribute to try solving the case, then it's good to keep people around just in case they are town, because then in the largest portion of games they would be a boon to you as a town.
This is Rexxar's best post. The goosebumps part sounds so legitimate and would be extremely creative to fake from the posts he made earlier. Slight town read
Slight townread on ruXxar. Then he doesn't mention ruXxar for a while, until:
On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote: Who I'm liking so far -
Wave Trfel n00bKing Damdred Oats
Probably wouldn't lynch today - Rels Kickstart
Could Lynch - Batsnacks Geript MoosyDoosy Sulfurus RuXxar
Including basically everyone who could be lynched today in the "Could Lynch" category. Again, note that he ends up voting for Rels, despite having included him in the "Probably wouldn't lynch today" category, the only reasons being sheeping me and this post:
On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote: KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder.
Finally, he's always saying he could lynch geript, without actually pushing it or doing anything about it. When the votes finally switched to geript, and scott31337 switched his own vote to geript, he didn't say anything whatsoever.
I need to move on, I'm running out of time, but I'm pretty confident that scott31337 is mafia. + Show Spoiler +
He's really not offering townreads, and he's throwing a LOT of suspicion around. This isn't necessarily alignment indicative, as town!Oatsmaster loves to throw suspicion around. However, his stance on Sulfurus is very suspicious.
On June 13 2015 11:11 Oatsmaster wrote: if bats flips town, ill be going after sulfurus.
On June 13 2015 18:40 Oatsmaster wrote: I would lynch geript if we don't lynch bats.
Finally, the voting analysis of Day 1 looks suspicious. He was hard scumreading batsnacks for a very long time, and eventually the votes went to batsnacks at 6, and Sulfurus at 4. Then Rels unvoted, and it looked like the batsnacks wagon was going to collapse. Instead of waiting for Sulfurus (who he already said he would lynch after batsnacks), Oatsmaster stayed around and waited until it looked like there was a good chance of a geript wagon, and then voted geript and went to sleep.
While he did townread Rels, he did this before the push on Rels began.
This is Oatsmaster trying to save Sulfurus, but not looking bad if he flips.
Concluding List Post!
Town Kickstart batsnacks WaveofShadow
Probably Town Rels (despite Sulfurus association) MoosyDoosy Damdred
Willing to vote for Kickstart early on, suggests that Kickstart is town Says that he would lynch Damdred Voted for batsnacks Rels town Would lynch Trfel Vote on Oatsmaster (final list post ignored due to WIFOM)
This suggests to me that Damdred is town and batsnacks is town, and also Kickstart town. It seems to hint at Rels being scummy. I don't think it says anything about Oatsmaster, because the wagons between Sulfurus and Kickstart were about even at this point. It looked fairly bad for Sulfurus here, so his vote on Oatsmaster isn't very useful (if he was really trying to stay alive, he would have voted for Kickstart, who he was comfortable scumreading).
This is the situation when scott31337 places his vote. He voted for Sulfurus here. At the time of his vote, there was a little less than 20 hours left in Day 1.
His vote for Sulfurus here doesn't actually mean that much. There's a lot of time left in the day, and it's likely that many people will switch votes. Still, his vote on Sulfurus leaves batsnacks in the vote lead, and when Sulfurus flips, it makes him look better. The only reason that mafia!scott31337 wouldn't want to vote for Sulfurus here is in case his vote ends up making the difference and he doesn't have an excuse to switch.
On June 13 2015 14:45 scott31337 wrote: He has not laid any of his battraps though, which makes me wonder, he almost always does this as town.
He said this to me in BBCode. There's something that he can use as an excuse to switch to batsnacks later. He says this before the Rels wagon started.
The Rels wagon is gaining steam and the batsnacks wagon is dying. It looks like the lynch will come down to Sulfurus and Rels, and it looks fairly close. Here, scott31337 switched to Rels from Sulfurus, bringing them to four votes each.
Rels is generally throwing around suspicions on everything. His townread on ruXxar changed after it was clear that the push on ruXxar wasn't going anywhere. He's scumreading people already being scumread by others, and multiple times he uses other people's posts to justify increasing his own suspicions of other people. + Show Spoiler [Examples] +
Criticizing MoosyDoosy's opening post (geript already did this) Suspicious of batsnacks (common suspicion), geript (WaveofShadow already said this), and MoosyDoosy (geript) Agrees with the suspicion I voiced on MoosyDoosy Immediately asked geript for his reason for being suspicious of scott31337, suddenly is more suspicious of him himself (see my previous post)
It seems like Rels is like a leaf in the wind, following thread sentiment, jumping on whatever works. He townreads people who are being townread already, he scumreads people who are being scumread, and only changes when the thread sentiment shifts.
The one major departure from this trend is when he townreads batsnacks. He did this before Damdred jumped in. This is a pretty big change in his read, and against the thread sentiment. However, I think that the way that Rels jumps on whatever suspicion is available every other time in the thread is quite telling.
I can get aboard this and feeling better then a Sulf lynch - you pulled a lot of work Trfel. You the man!
What has he said about Rels before this?
On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote: Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read.
On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote: Probably wouldn't lynch today - Rels
(rest of list post omitted)
On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote: KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder.
Given how his post before switching to Rels, he said this:
On June 13 2015 23:03 ruXxar wrote: I'm trying to figure out why people are scumreading sulfurus.
I read through his filter and I found nothing to make me read him as either alignment. I went through the voting history to see who voted for him. The kickstart vote was too early to judge for me, so I ignored it. The next one to vote is geript.
Reading through geripts filter I get a bad vibe.
On June 12 2015 10:27 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote: I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet.
I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great.
Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia?
And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us.
On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves.
people should be talking about this.
He pointed out that since noone jumped on moosy for this post, then moosy is mafia. This makes no sense to me. To me that post is filled with genuine excitement from a newbie. Seeing as I'm a newbie too i understand all to well how he must've felt in his early posts.
On June 13 2015 03:31 geript wrote:
On June 13 2015 03:22 WaveofShadow wrote: Geript I don't understand how you go from seemingly town-->scum-->town on moosy without any real change in anything he has done. Not following thought processes with you at all, though I think that actually might be standard for you and it annoys me.
Never assumed he was town to start w/ babycakes. Moreso: 1. Moosy makes a god awful post --> I think he's scum 2. No one pushes Moosy --> If he's town I'd expect someone to have jumped on him therefore scum 3. Posts a shit ton --> Probably just nubian with bad opening and mafia afk or otherwise engaged
On June 13 2015 05:29 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote: I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet.
I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great.
Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia?
And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us.
On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves.
Did you look at this post at all?
He's commenting about things that don't really matter in a way that he's seemingly had some interesting thought on it. He asks a question that's essentially a statement. He meanders through potentially interesting topics while giving no opinion on anything. Then he plays the dumbtell card.
It's a big post that literally offers nothing while commenting on things in a way that confer a formed opinion. It almost can be boiled down to: "I've been thinking about this game, but I won't really comment on it at all. What do you guys think about this random stuff?" I don't see even newer town players do that often.
Then he gets into an argument with waveofshadow who also picks up on his inconsistency in alignment on moosy.
I can't see his reasoning for voting on sulfurous. Basically he said 2 things about sulfurous:
On June 13 2015 03:08 geript wrote:
On June 12 2015 10:12 Sulfurus wrote: I'm starting to really like the case on Kickstarter; he has made a lot of posts that give the illusion of being a helpful towny with his PSA and rule clarifications but they are really just filler and something that the mods already have covered.
On top of that I think n00bKing's defense of ruXx is spot on which gives even more validity to the Kickstarter push.
##Vote: Kickstarter
(I admit that in a vacuum I would probably scum read Bats more but I've learned my lesson from last game)
This post is pretty bad.
and
On June 13 2015 05:12 geript wrote:
On June 13 2015 04:37 Sulfurus wrote: @geript That's good that you no longer scum read Moosy but Bats hasn't made the same realization you have and you townread two of the people voting on him. So what do you think of him?
I'd rather lynch you.
Then kickstart says this which aligns with my own thinking.
On June 13 2015 06:03 Kickstart wrote: Went through geript's filter. His move off moosy and onto sulfurus was weird to me. He just said "id rather lynch you" in this thread, then voted in the other thread, and hasn't mentioned it at all. strange.
This give me a townlean on kickstart.
I still think bats is our best lynch for day 1, but geript has raised a red flag for me. I want to know why he's voting for sulfurus.
Why does this just scream "save sulfurus" for some reason to me?
It seems like he was preparing to look good for bussing Sulfurus, but left himself an out to vote for batsnacks if necessary, and then decided to join the Rels wagon when he had a chance. This feels rather scummy.
Along with Sulfurus, scott31337 voted for Kickstart to bring the wagons to Kickstart with five votes and Sulfurus with six. Despite this being close, it became clear that Sulfurus was going to be lynched, so scott31337 switched votes to Sulfurus.
On June 17 2015 06:49 scott31337 wrote: If Sulf is mafia then I'll look like shit
Trfel is my believer and WoS is my believer they want Sulf dead Sulf isn't doing shit Let's go Sulf then fuhq it
And he's well aware that Sulfurus flipping red makes him look bad.
On June 13 2015 02:08 scott31337 wrote: Geript has four posts and very little content. I know he's good as mafia - but on the scum side of null for now.
He scumreads geript here, but uses the reason that geript is good at mafia to weaken his argument. As a result, he doesn't push this at all (and it would be hard to push geript, because he is a strong player).
He also scumreads MoosyDoosy and batsnacks, back when MoosyDoosy was a very easy target and batsnacks was scumread by most people.
On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote: Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read.
It makes no sense whatsoever for town!scott31337 to townread Rels for scumreading the person he replaced for his one post. Assuming that scott31337 is town, he townreads Rels for scumreading someone who scott31337 knows is town and was only able to make one (useless) post. There is no reason whatsoever that Rels should get a townread for this. To me, this feels like scott31337 is attempting to pocket Rels, which makes sense given that Rels would naturally be suspicious of him after the replacement. His explanation here adds that he townread Rels for strongly believing this case, but mafia!Rels has no reason NOT to push his case so strongly because he knows that Fake)Plants is town (thus an easy mislynch) and that he almost certainly won't provide strong resistance.
On June 12 2015 11:33 MoosyDoosy wrote: ^ Also Kickstart, I wouldn't read too much into ruXx's initial post where he's rambling about slapping/daydreaming about Mafia. It might have been from an attempt to identify himself as a non-aggressor to the Mafia so that when night time comes around, they don't kill him. If the game went on for longer, people would also suspect ruXx more giving the Mafia an easy kill. This actually happens a ton in real life Mafia but it's clear it's totally different online at this point.
Also, going back to his post where he "misses the interaction" which is right after his rambling, it's pretty clear that ruXx is not paying attention whatsoever. As a newbie he was probably just as excited as I was about remaining passive which is why he didn't notice the err in his post. Just the fact that it seems he has no idea whatsoever about what he's saying during his rambling just shows this too.
I'll look through the rest of your points, but I'll try and provide a "newbie perspective." Either way, it looks like he wised up real fast and stopped being as frantic and energetic in his posts.
On June 12 2015 11:38 MoosyDoosy wrote: Yeah, the more I read of ruXx's initial posts, the more it seems he's thinking in terms of a real life Mafia game as well as tryharding a bit.
Him intercepting a question was him tryharding a basic read and him supporting lying is from a real life Mafia mindset since lying is much more common in real life.
The last two posts that you point out are kind of shady but even then they err on the side of newbie to online Mafia. Overall I wouldn't vote him just yet until we get more evidence.
Wow moosy.
I have to give you 5 stars for this read. It's like you're inside my head or something. I had goosebumps reading this since it was so spot on.
You are absolutely right that my only exposure to mafia has been through watching the TI qualifiers hub, and later watching all stars mafia on youtube.
I really wanted to emulate the dynamic of a live environment, and went in trying to actively counter some of the things i picked up that a mafia would do.
From watching those live mafia games I learned that the number 1 trait of a mafia is to be silent. They would bide their time and look for arguments to bandwagon onto, often avoid getting into heated arguments if possible, and when attacked they would try to deflect onto another person.
I admit I am very excited to go out playing my first mafia game, and overracted by claiming my role before day 1 post(I did not know that this was frowned upon).
Another thing that I learned is that it doesn't matter if you are mafia or not, as long as you contribute to try solving the case, then it's good to keep people around just in case they are town, because then in the largest portion of games they would be a boon to you as a town.
This is Rexxar's best post. The goosebumps part sounds so legitimate and would be extremely creative to fake from the posts he made earlier. Slight town read
Slight townread on ruXxar. Then he doesn't mention ruXxar for a while, until:
On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote: Who I'm liking so far -
Wave Trfel n00bKing Damdred Oats
Probably wouldn't lynch today - Rels Kickstart
Could Lynch - Batsnacks Geript MoosyDoosy Sulfurus RuXxar
Including basically everyone who could be lynched today in the "Could Lynch" category. Again, note that he ends up voting for Rels, despite having included him in the "Probably wouldn't lynch today" category, the only reasons being sheeping me and this post:
On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote: KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder.
Finally, he's always saying he could lynch geript, without actually pushing it or doing anything about it. When the votes finally switched to geript, and scott31337 switched his own vote to geript, he didn't say anything whatsoever.
I need to move on, I'm running out of time, but I'm pretty confident that scott31337 is mafia.
He's really not offering townreads, and he's throwing a LOT of suspicion around. This isn't necessarily alignment indicative, as town!Oatsmaster loves to throw suspicion around. However, his stance on Sulfurus is very suspicious.
On June 13 2015 11:11 Oatsmaster wrote: if bats flips town, ill be going after sulfurus.
On June 13 2015 18:40 Oatsmaster wrote: I would lynch geript if we don't lynch bats.
Finally, the voting analysis of Day 1 looks suspicious. He was hard scumreading batsnacks for a very long time, and eventually the votes went to batsnacks at 6, and Sulfurus at 4. Then Rels unvoted, and it looked like the batsnacks wagon was going to collapse. Instead of waiting for Sulfurus (who he already said he would lynch after batsnacks), Oatsmaster stayed around and waited until it looked like there was a good chance of a geript wagon, and then voted geript and went to sleep.
While he did townread Rels, he did this before the push on Rels began.
This is Oatsmaster trying to save Sulfurus, but not looking bad if he flips.
Concluding List Post!
Town Kickstart batsnacks WaveofShadow
Probably Town Rels (despite Sulfurus association) MoosyDoosy Damdred
So the first part, is when I townread Rels, I wrote what I meant incorrectly. I wasn't townreading him for calling out my replacement, I was townreading him even if he called out my replacement. I posted this a little bit later.
On June 13 2015 06:56 scott31337 wrote:
On June 13 2015 06:44 Trfel wrote: [spoiler]
On June 12 2015 10:44 Oatsmaster wrote: Anyway Trfel, what makes bats town?
I had a town lean on batsnacks due to the balance between his jokes and serious reads. Since then, batsnacks has been much more serious, and his jokes are few and far between, so this read isn't valid any more.
On June 12 2015 10:51 Oatsmaster wrote: NAI is a new thing lol.
I kinda like ruxxar. It was really funny that he answered a question not directed at him asking why people shouldnt answer questions not directed at them.
He doesnt do it intentionally to just create content IMO.
(bold added) So if he doesn't do it intentionally, then why is it towny?
On June 12 2015 15:03 n00bKing wrote: It's also worth noting that RuXx purposely furthered the conversation about Town players lying, AFTER he saw that some other players were reacting negatively to what he had said. If a Newbie scum player saw that what he had said was causing some raised eyebrows, he might clam up or change the subject, to get beyond the comment that had raised suspicion, and bury it. Instead, he challenges the people who expressed a contradictory viewpoint, which ensures that no readers who come along later will gloss over what he's said.
You could try to say that he didn't realize it was a controversial statement when he first made it. But even after it was clear to him (based on the posts of other players) that it was a controversial statement, he stuck to it, and called more attention to it. Again, I feel like this is boldness you would seldom see from an inexperienced scum player.
This point about ruXxar continuing to press the lying issue is good. I guess I judged ruXxar too early.
##unvote
On June 12 2015 16:35 Rels wrote: Hello everybody, GL HF!
I'll read the thread now and comment on things. See you soon.
I really don't like this post at all. Posting without having read the thread is useless, the only thing it helps with is making it look like you're doing more work that you actually are, and it detracts from scumhunting. But making a useless post after the investigation has already started is pathetic.
On June 13 2015 00:22 Rels wrote: Alright ruxxar I was unsure how to read you. But with this post I now believe you're a super excited townie. I too believe that we should not let mafia the ability to stay silent.
Rels, what about ruXxar's post made you say this?
On June 13 2015 01:10 WaveofShadow wrote: I can't decide now if I think geript and bats could be scum together for this horribleness. Association cases = bad but I can't help it and I THINK it's probably not the case. One of them at least for sure though.
I have no idea why someone as experienced as WaveofShadow would share a potential association case while in the same post acknowledging that association cases are bad. Please explain.
On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote: Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read.
Why does calling out the player with only one post, who needs to get replaced, make someone town? Especially because, if you are town, he called out the easiest player to pick on who happens to be confirmed town.
I really don't like batsnacks' response to the pressure on him. Batsnacks doesn't normally react like this, he's fine under pressure. In my first game playing with him, I tunneled him for basically all of Day 1 and Night 1, and he made a post telling people to stop arguing about useless things and read the case I had posted on him.
I need to read some filters, but batsnacks seems very active, concerned about his safety, but not providing actual content.
On June 13 2015 06:42 n00bKing wrote:
On June 13 2015 03:28 geript wrote:
On June 13 2015 03:25 batsnacks wrote: I don't know what geripts alignment is...
Clearly that guy is 3P.
I don't know what 3P means either.
Third party.
Let me rephrase this since I see what you are saying but I didn't type that properly. Rels made a case on my replacement slot that he believed in, and caught Plants in a "lie" - I saw him a slight town read for believing in his case. I meant more of (even if he is calling out my replacement slot).
For the vote, KS was looking a bit better, and yes I was a bit unsure. I only had about 20 minutes. I went with the right decision. I've been scumming Sulf for most of the game - I voted for him day 1 for a tie breaker. I admit, my vote was late and didn't swing what would happen anyway. It's also after sulf flipped I saw what might be coming "inb4 scott bussed sulfurus" - I didn't have much time. Moosy (our dead doctor) saw the above as well, including the vote.
Please help me understand what I missed so I can respond.
Is my Batsnacks / Damdred / Sulf theory tinfoil crazy?
Well, technically, you replied to all of it.
However, you didn't actually address the main points, and your explanations aren't plausible when compared with your actions themselves.
To start, you still haven't explained how you can townread Rels. Why does it matter that he believed his case on Fake)Plants, when Fake)Plants wasn't posting and he (presumably) knew that Fake)Plants was town?
On June 19 2015 15:30 Trfel wrote: Scott31337, I see your post and I'm pretty convinced you are mafia. Not going to argue with you about this any more.
I'm sorry you feel this way - Who would you like to lynch tomorrow when I flip town?
Not sure. I'm also suspecting Oatsmaster, looking through his filter at the moment. And I still need to take a closer look at ruXxar.
There are a lot of people who seem to be suspicious of Damdred, and I'm waiting for them to really explain why. I don't see many real reasons to suspect Damdred at this point.
On June 19 2015 15:30 Trfel wrote: Scott31337, I see your post and I'm pretty convinced you are mafia. Not going to argue with you about this any more.
I'm sorry you feel this way - Who would you like to lynch tomorrow when I flip town?
Not sure. I'm also suspecting Oatsmaster, looking through his filter at the moment. And I still need to take a closer look at ruXxar.
There are a lot of people who seem to be suspicious of Damdred, and I'm waiting for them to really explain why. I don't see many real reasons to suspect Damdred at this point.
why is damdred town?
I analyzed Damdred's voting in this post. While the formatting isn't ideal (the formatting emphasized the less important parts), I just don't feel like Damdred's interactions with Sulfurus are sensible for mafia.
On June 13 2015 08:24 Sulfurus wrote: To start off I think n00bKing is the towniest person in this game period. Almost all of his posts are there to benefit town with either advice or very good questioning and again I think his reasoning on ruXxar is spot on (and much better then what Kick has said). So fmpov this make ruXx look really good and bats/kick look terrible (ruxx has also done a lot since that looks really towny in my eyes whereas kick and bats haven't).
Moving on there is also the whole conflict between Wave and Geript caused by his shitty read on Moosy (which was sheeped by Bats even though geript himself has changed his mind). I think this interaction makes Wave look pretty good and bats once again doesn't however he has since changed his vote to Rels.
Speaking of which the reason he is even voting Rels is because of a read by Trfel (looking back he was also one of the first to push scum on ruXx).
So they may not be the strongest town reads on those I called town but I think you guys are right and bats really is playing differently this game.
##Vote: Batsnacks
So you have a couple townreads and read bats scum, is that correct?
Bats is showing himself a little more townie lately, would you agree or no?
Who would you like to lynch besides Bats?
I would definitely lynch and Kick and I would be fine with a Geript lynch. Wave was very quick and eager to lynch on me and Damdred has posted too little for me to read him as town.
And no I don't think Bats has been more town recently at all.
On June 13 2015 15:58 Sulfurus wrote: @trfel this post. It made me realize that just because Bats was town last time I tried to lynch doesn't mean it should stop me this time.
On June 13 2015 16:00 Sulfurus wrote: Also I feel bad for saying I would lynch Damdred when he hasn't posted much. So now he isn't on my lynch list.
Nothing to warrant this change.
At the time that Oatsmaster switched from batsnacks to geript, the vote count was as follows: Sulfurus (6): Kickstart, geript, batsnacks, WaveofShadow, scott31337, MoosyDoosy batsnacks (5): [green]n00bKing, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, Sulfurus, Trfel geript (1): Rels
By this point, it was starting to look like Sulfurus would be lynched over batsnacks.
Here's some of Oatsmaster's discussion with batsnacks after MoosyDoosy voted for Sulfurus (putting him into the lead). No posts are omitted.
On June 13 2015 22:14 Oatsmaster wrote: dammit bats I want to lynch mafia today but you are the scummiest.
On June 13 2015 22:15 Oatsmaster wrote: argh now i feel like im nitpicking. Ok Ok fine.
On June 13 2015 22:14 Oatsmaster wrote: So instead of explain why its "not optimal", your best way of explaining was the vote the dude? When you vote people, you dont always think they are mafia? Is that correct bats?
dammit bats I want to lynch mafia today but you are the scummiest.
I never voted him! And I did explain that no one should claim!
On June 13 2015 22:14 Oatsmaster wrote: So instead of explain why its "not optimal", your best way of explaining was the vote the dude? When you vote people, you dont always think they are mafia? Is that correct bats?
dammit bats I want to lynch mafia today but you are the scummiest.
I never voted him! And I did explain that no one should claim!
On June 12 2015 08:42 batsnacks wrote: I'm going to make a quick and easy how to play town guide:
don't claim your role
find exactly 1 person who you think is mafia
say why this 1 person is mafia
do not form reads based on unflipped associations e.g. player X AND player Y could be mafia together because Z.
And I am NOT the scummiest you are just caught in a logical fallacy that I WILL get you out of.
You did. voting thread doesnt count. If we didnt have a voting thead, you wouldve voted. Answer the question.
Also, what logical fallacy? That you are useless and are not helping town at all, that you constantly complain about getting scumread and you do nothing but scumread the person everyone else thinks is mafia? Sure, logical fallacy.
You would lynch geript?
Here, it feels that Oatsmaster is suggesting lynching geript with batsnacks, who seven minutes ago he said was the scummiest in the thread. And batsnacks made a whole one post in this time.
On June 13 2015 22:42 Damdred wrote: Yeah bats is a completely stupid lynch, here. (Never use this again bats is to smart a player)
If you look at bats last scum/town games you see a few things crop up.
1) as scum once it's clear that he is going to,be one of,l the leading wagons his care factor diminishes to a few posts randomly complaining without doing anything about it or pushing his own thoughts.
In comparison here he is pushing what he thinks explaining why he's town,and,not giving,up. I liked bats when I first read his filter. He keeps pushing the thread.
2) as scum, he has developed an ability to have weak scum reads to a point.
Here he has well reasoned or seemingly well reasoned reasons for calling people out.
3) resorts to trolling as scum when he's caught.
He's not doing this here.
Bats is town, besides meta. Biggest filter, most controversial figure d1. Okish reads.
Leave the bats alone
With the vote count at 6 to 5 with Sulfurus leading, and the only players not on one of the two wagons (Damdred and Rels) saying they won't lynch batsnacks, it's pretty obvious that batsnacks won't be lynched.
Batsnacks and ruXxar say that they are willing to lynch geript, and despite Oatsmaster still talking about how batsnacks' posts are bad, and batsnacks not saying anything useful, Oatsmaster decides to lynch geript with batsnacks.
Night 1: False explanation for vote switch from batsnacks to geript + Show Spoiler +
On June 14 2015 09:14 Oatsmaster wrote: Let's get moosy tmr
On June 14 2015 09:36 Oatsmaster wrote: I quite like lynching Scot.
On June 14 2015 09:14 Oatsmaster wrote: Let's get moosy tmr
Thoughts on the flip Oats? You swapped pretty handily onto geript without any exposition whatsoever after going ham on batsnacks forever.
I thought bats looked town.
Because Oatsmaster definitely said that batsnacks looked towny. When he was making posts like these just before switching votes from batsnacks to geript:
On June 13 2015 23:00 Oatsmaster wrote: lol everyone is a better lynch than you bats, even me.
well intentioned means that it feels like Rels is trying to find mafia. Not very well but still.
Every other post of yours is bad bats. ...
On June 13 2015 23:09 Oatsmaster wrote: Thats like the worst argument in existence.
Day 2: Scumreads Sulfurus, tries to lynch anyone else + Show Spoiler +
Going into Day 2, Oatsmaster was suspicious of MoosyDoosy, scott31337, Damdred, and Sulfurus.
On June 15 2015 08:40 Oatsmaster wrote: that was a pretty bad kill.
Why exactly is everyone voting for rels and not sulph?
On June 15 2015 20:43 Oatsmaster wrote: Rels just did his go through the thread and reply to every single post thing again.
And in the end, I have no idea who he thinks is scum, only numerous townreads.
On June 15 2015 21:29 Oatsmaster wrote: I mean, it seems really convoluted, the most strategy Ive ever had as scum was to "ok try not to lynch my partners and lynch town".
So, Oatsmaster says that he doesn't want to lynch Rels, and suggests lynching Sulfurus instead (without voting for Sulfurus). Then he posts some suspicions of Rels. It almost feels like he's giving himself a way to jump to Rels later, if necessary.
On June 16 2015 08:41 Oatsmaster wrote: I really dont like this kickstart lynch, its coming up super fast and everyone is supporting it. What happened to lynching ruxxar? I thought that was pretty good. or damdred.
On June 16 2015 10:17 Oatsmaster wrote: Kickstart is pretty damn obviously town and him not doing anything doesn't really diminish his start. Like this is a super easy lynch for scum to push because Kickstart 's attitude sucks and a pretty predictable response will come.
Let's lynch ruxxar instead.
On June 16 2015 10:18 Oatsmaster wrote: Seriously why the hell is kickstart a better lynch. Can someone like trfel give me one reason that doesn't include the words activity and promises.
On June 16 2015 12:26 Oatsmaster wrote: Damdred, do you want to lynch kickstart or not?
On June 16 2015 22:42 Oatsmaster wrote: Pretty ok case I guess. Dammit I hate being a wrong but now kickstart actually looks like mafia.
It's weird that sulph wants to lynch me rather than kickstart though.
So, despite scumreading Sulfurus all this time, seeing the wagons being Sulfurus and Kickstart, he doesn't vote. Then he pushes ruXxar, who he never mentioned being scummy so far Day 2 and Night 1. But Oatsmaster didn't actually vote for ruXxar, after a while he switched to Kickstart. Didn't mention Sulfurus throughout all of this.
Also note: constant scumread of Damdred, but never does anything about it + Show Spoiler +
On June 13 2015 22:42 Damdred wrote: Yeah bats is a completely stupid lynch, here. (Never use this again bats is to smart a player)
If you look at bats last scum/town games you see a few things crop up.
1) as scum once it's clear that he is going to,be one of,l the leading wagons his care factor diminishes to a few posts randomly complaining without doing anything about it or pushing his own thoughts.
In comparison here he is pushing what he thinks explaining why he's town,and,not giving,up. I liked bats when I first read his filter. He keeps pushing the thread.
2) as scum, he has developed an ability to have weak scum reads to a point.
Here he has well reasoned or seemingly well reasoned reasons for calling people out.
3) resorts to trolling as scum when he's caught.
He's not doing this here.
Bats is town, besides meta. Biggest filter, most controversial figure d1. Okish reads.
Leave the bats alone
lynch you instead? sounds good to me.
His first mention of Damdred this game.
On June 14 2015 15:18 Oatsmaster wrote: Damdred didn't call me town, he's scum. Also that completely pointless list post that has more townreads than scum reads.
Sulph / damdred mafia.
Scott also maybe.
On June 16 2015 08:41 Oatsmaster wrote: I really dont like this kickstart lynch, its coming up super fast and everyone is supporting it. What happened to lynching ruxxar? I thought that was pretty good. or damdred.
On June 17 2015 09:42 Oatsmaster wrote: Yeah, sorry Scott, that's not actually a case, just observation.
I ddidn't explain my scum reads cause I didn't think it was all that important.
Also I totally forgot about Damdred lol. Damdred mafia.
Also, I never explained a reason for you to be mafia, so it can't be shit. Damdred should just know better than to townhunt rather than scumhunt
These are all the times that Oatsmaster references Damdred in the timeframe here.
After this, Oatsmaster does discuss his scumread of Damdred more, but the fact that he was constantly scumreading Damdred but not saying anything about it is strange.
On June 19 2015 15:30 Trfel wrote: Scott31337, I see your post and I'm pretty convinced you are mafia. Not going to argue with you about this any more.
I'm sorry you feel this way - Who would you like to lynch tomorrow when I flip town?
Not sure. I'm also suspecting Oatsmaster, looking through his filter at the moment. And I still need to take a closer look at ruXxar.
There are a lot of people who seem to be suspicious of Damdred, and I'm waiting for them to really explain why. I don't see many real reasons to suspect Damdred at this point.
why is damdred town?
I analyzed Damdred's voting in this post. While the formatting isn't ideal (the formatting emphasized the less important parts), I just don't feel like Damdred's interactions with Sulfurus are sensible for mafia.
how should damdred interaction with sulf if hes mafia?
Also, why dont you agree that the voting analysis is pretty damn useless.
How is the voting analysis useful?
Can we agree that Damdred and ruXxar are probably NOT scum together? Reason being that on Day 2, Damdred was pretty clear about lynching between ruXxar and Sulfurus, and I can't see Damdred making his decision between his scum buddies.
Assuming that Kickstart is town (which I think is true based on my previous voting analysis, that mafia had 24 hours of time to make a push but nothing happened), if Damdred is scum, he played like this: 1. Pushing ruXxar with batsnacks, while the alternate wagon is Kickstart 2. Switches wagon from ruXxar to Sulfurus
Which would be pretty darn stupid.
Anyway, I've got a headache, and I think I'll be heading to bed pretty soon.
On June 19 2015 17:20 Oatsmaster wrote: I dont care about your first point.
What is the relevance of the second point? Damdred pushed town then switched when it was obvious sulf was going to get lynched lol.
Can you summerize your stuff on me into a few points?
the most obvious one I saw was that I switched off bats for no reason. Except if bats and geript are both town, then it doesnt matter.
The other one was that I didnt really interact with sulf. I dont see how that makes me scum. Another one was that I keep calling damdred scum but not doing anything about it. Correct, but damdred hasnt flipped yet so again, no conclusions can be made unless you think that a player calling another player scum but not doing anything about it is inherently scummy.
Numbers 1 and 2 weren't two points. I was using the numbers to represent the order of the thought process that Damdred would need to go through as mafia.
It wasn't obvious that Sulfurus was going to get lynched, and Damdred still had his ruXxar push. He could have tried to keep the lynch between ruXxar and Kickstart, but he didn't. Furthermore, Damdred defended Sulfurus on Day 1. Why would mafia!Damdred defend Sulfurus on Day 1, then bus so readily on Day 2, when it wasn't necessary?
It does matter that you switched off of batsnacks and onto geript suspiciously. Even if both are town, this helped protect Sulfurus.
Then, you falsely explained this vote switch.
And you didn't vote for Sulfurus on Day 2, despite calling him scum all the time except when actually making a push.
On June 19 2015 23:05 Kickstart wrote: So scot n oats still scummy to me. Only thing I want to note is if scott flips town I am going to have to have a look at bats and trfel for telling him to not talk to them because they aren't listening. I mean I think scott is scum too and trfel is like shitting town rainbows any time he decides to post but yeah.
Please don't misunderstand. I'm not telling scott31337 to stop talking, I just didn't want to talk to him about the same things (ie my reasons for calling him scum) any longer. I'm willing to talk with him about other things.
On June 20 2015 02:36 Oatsmaster wrote: Well anyway that's a scum slip because if he's town this game, he has a coach so therefore he's mafia.
Wave, what wtf?
We're not allowed to discuss coaching in this game.
On June 20 2015 02:56 WaveofShadow wrote: Guys get off scott.
It HAS to be one of Oats/Damdred, and this point I don't really care which one you vote for.
And why isn't it scott31337? I've made my arguments, and he seems like a solid lynch to me. If you don't want to lynch him, you need to say why. Is it just because of how much strength his wagon has?
I don't have a problem with lynching Oatsmaster, but scott31337 just feels even scummier.
On June 20 2015 03:31 Trfel wrote: It just feels like scott31337 is so scummy, I can't really see scum defending him. They sort of need to bus him at this point.
Alright well then if this is the case, when did the bussing start? Was there a 'tipping point' at which you think he looked too scummy to be redeemed even to the other scum?
I'm not really sure when scum started to actually hard push him.
But after his votes towards the end of Day 2, I find it hard to see scum defending him. There were several people who said during Night 2 that his Day 1 voting was towny, and perhaps one of them is scum as well. But after I showed that this argument is wrong, I can't see scum defending scott31337 any more.
.
EPT
