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On February 24 2015 10:29 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2015 10:23 Trfel wrote:On February 24 2015 10:14 zlefin wrote:
Hmmm, so two of us have to agree on which other one to lynch, as per the rules on end-game votes.
Is that really what it is? I thought that the rule in question only applied if it was clear that it would be that way before the day began. Therefore, I think if we have a 1-1-1 split, whoever gets voted for first is the one who is lynched. That said, we had better have two people on the same target. well, that's not how I read it, but you can ask those in charge. The logic for it would fully apply to a 1-1-1 split, making sure it's not a vote race, because vote races are bad for deciding the game. It just occurs to me, it must be logically possible for a mafia game to tie, if there's a lylo mislynch, but the remaining two people are the scum and a vigilante with a bullet left, and they kill each other at night. I believe mafia wins as soon as they have equal numbers as town, so that would be a mafia victory.
But it would be nice to have clarification as to what happens if the voting ends with one vote on each player if possible?
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Is there a case that I need to defend myself against?
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Shoot, that looks really sarcastic. I'm sorry, it's an honest question.
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On February 23 2015 08:58 Palmar wrote:
also reevaluate everything in lylo. Don't scumhunt in lylo using what is being posted in lylo, just use whatever was posted in the previous days and go off of that. I'm going to quote this again.
Note that by no means do I intend to stop scumhunting at LYLO, I will do my very best. But it is easy for people's behaviors to change at LYLO, and for scum to step up their game significantly. Thefefore, I trust Palmar in saying that it is more important to look at what happened before LYLO than to look at LYLO itself.
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Here's where we stood at End of Night.
Trfel was townreading The Shining, and The Shining was townreading Trfel.
The Shining was scumreading jarjarbinks, and Trfel was scumreading zlefin. Zlefin was also scumreading Trfel.
If we are dealing with mafia!jarjarbinks, killing The Shining makes sense to leave two confused townies scumreading each other.
If we are dealing with mafia!zlefin, killing The Shining doesn't make much sense except for hoping for WIFOM, which is a bit silly. Maybe The Shining was killed because The Shining was his townread, and therefore he could not justify voting him. This is a possibility for mafia!zlefin to kill The Shining to keep his vote options open, but that seems like a generally poor choice compared to leaving The Shining who is scumreading jarjarbinks behind.
Therefore, it seems to me that the night kill seems to suggest that jarjarbinks is scum. Still, I have a lot of trouble with night kill analysis. Jarjarbinks, can you please shed some light on this for me?
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I'm going to case zlefin. Note that this does not represent a scumread, but we already have a case for The Shining. I'm looking for thoughts on this.
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That's the thing. I set it as a trap, but I don't know what or how I can use the information I might have gained from the trap. I'll keep thinking about it.
But in the end, I can't see myself lynching jarjarbinks just because of the night kill. It's something to keep in mind, but I don't know how much weight it deserves.
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Well, what are the reasons for this conclusion?
You stated your method, you stated potential flaws, you stated your conclusion. I am wondering how the results of your method led you to your conclusion? 
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And I don't care what you are doing or why you are doing it (same goes for zlefin). Palmar makes sense about that one. What I do care is what conclusions you reached, and if I think they are the correct conclusions.
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Hm.... I'm skeptical. To start, I've always used the philosophy that people are town until they prove otherwise, while most people use the philosophy that most people are suspect until proved otherwise. I mean, I obviously don't accept people as town right away, but I give them the benefit of the doubt until they do something to not deserve it any more, if that makes sense?
I'm interested to see what you come up with, but my hypothesis is that it is too prone to errors.
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That point #4. That's actually a really good point.
The rest of it, I'm not sure how useful it is, and I'm not entirely sure of everything you are trying to say with point 3, but point 4 is very obvious and clear.*
I'm not going to explain what the * means at this time, so don't ask.
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zlefin
We start knowing that zlefin's play is extremely cautious. I feel that his play generally fits what would be expected from an extremely cautious scum.
When I read this post at this time, it almost makes me wonder if he is being too suspicious to be town. I'm not sure that a town player in his first game would even consider the possibility of two mafia working together to be town read this early in the game. Any thoughts on this?
This post seems to be showing some suspicion to inactivity, which coincidentally includes mafia Silverarte. Note that he says that inactivity seems weird, but is probably not a sign of being scum. This could be a mafia being sure to show some suspicion of a scum buddy, but also being sure not to go too far with it.
This post is more of what I referenced in the first post I linked. I don't think it means anything, but I'm still interested in thoughts.
I don't know what to make of zlefin's original idea to lynch me for information. It's certainly unique, and I am not sure that scum would naturally think of doing this. That said, it has a good mafia motivation of doing something unique and it can potentially be used as a small excuse to not have better reads.
It still seems strange that zlefin asks people what he should do. It feels as if he is trying to make sure that his actions are considered correct by everyone else.
If zlefin agreed with my reasons that Hier could be town, why is he not considering finding a scum lynch instead? This seems strange.
Zlefin gave Silverarte -1 in his table. This seems a bit suspicious, like he is making sure not to give too much town credit to his scum buddy. It's perfectly fine to leave inactives at null.
I don't know what to think about posts like this. Thoughts? (the last one on the page)
This feels a bit too self-conscious.
I still think that this read on Silverarte is strange, and he seems to provide an incorrect judgement of Silverarte's filter while still leaving a lot of room for interpretation. He leaves a probe for other people's thoughts here, as if he wants to see if he is right. He did not do so for the above post linked about ElyAs.
By the time that zlefin made this post, The Shining's filter didn't feel that great. The Shining didn't provide many original reads in this time frame. Zlefin also seems committed to making a read on everyone, which seems odd.
This looks like zlefin trying to see if he is too easily connected with Silverarte. And the last sentence doesn't need to be added by a town!zlefin here.
Zlefin moved Silverarte from weak town to scum here. Then zlefin probed everyone for scumreads, and as a result, decided to vote for Silverarte. At this point, most everyone was scumreading Silverarte, so for a cautious zlefin, going for the bus here is the safe play and it is justified. Right before this, he probed the entire thread for reads, and he didn't seem to use those reads for anything other than this vote. Zlefin didn't seem to think that I was actually in danger of being lynched, and that is why he stuck to the bus.
Zlefin "has to recommend" voting for Silverarte over me. Has to? Bad wording for town!zlefin.
This post shows just far zlefin's stance on Silverarte is falling. When he gave her a favorable read earlier.
This post suggests that zlefin hasn't been paying attention to flips before this one, didn't realize that vanilla townie was a role, or both. Had zlefin received a vanilla townie role PM, that might have made him more likely to realize that vanilla townie is in fact a role.
This wording makes it seem that not only is zlefin going ahead with a pre-day lynch, he is refusing to consider alternatives and is removing himself from blame should it go wrong.
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Any thoughts would be much appreciated.
I'm intentionally leaving my conclusion separate from the analysis itself. Zlefin has been playing extremely cautiously, generally keeping with town sentiment and trying to stay in public favor. That said, his play still has several things that could be seen as suspicious (widely varying in strength, haha). Many of the points I mentioned above are not very strong. But zlefin doesn't seem to be a bad lynch for the strong points, what jarjarbinks brought up, and the extreme caution his filter showed.
I'm going to filter dive jarjarbinks now, and then read The Shining's case on him.
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On February 24 2015 13:52 jarjarbinks wrote:
I tried to read through this, but I'm going to have to come back tomorrow for a reread. There's so many quotes lol I'll try to comment on this in the morning if I have time and if not in the afternoon.
#3 was my favorite point on my case lol If I have time after my case on you I will try to help you understand what I'm saying I probably wasn't clear enough in my analysis. Very well, good night. You don't need to go point by point, just general comments or important comments are fine. I'm mostly interested in overall conclusion.
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jarjarbinks
This post seems a bit off. "Let me go reread and see if I can pick up on something". Hm.
Then there's jarjarbinks deciding to go his own way with the Day 1 vote. I really don't know what to make of this. At first it seems towny, but it could also be trying to rid himself of the Hier mislynch.
Jarjarbinks accusing zlefin here seems a bit weak. I demonstrated that it is possible to link zlefin's points to his reads. He townread ElyAs earlier, the opinion change seems suspect here. But this is a plausible explanation for someone who focuses heavily on vote counts.
This read feels poor to me for reasons I've already explained.
Here, jarjarbinks states that Silverarte is most lynchable. This seems to take some of the force out of the jarjarbinks bus theory.
Then of course, his vote switch to Silverarte. I still think that this is a townie thing to do, even with the break. He already voted for me after scumreading Silverarte, at that point it makes no sense to switch back and bus.
This post seems a bit off. Why would he be posting his 2nd game now if we were wondering why he only grabbed his first? Seems self conscious.
That's what I got. I need to look through The Shining's case still, but I will put that off to tomorrow. On a side note, I am getting sleepy so I didn't mention minor points in this analysis, while I included a bunch of minor/null points in my analysis of zlefin's play (looking for feedback). Don't be deceived by the case size.
I am still leaning towards zlefin being mafia.
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On February 24 2015 22:46 zlefin wrote:
I've said before Trfel is either town, or a well-played scum, others (IIRC tere at least, probably more people) have remarked on this as well. I thought I was a well played town...........
I'll reread everything you said in a bit. I can respond if you would like, but otherwise I wasn't planning to.
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On February 24 2015 10:07 zlefin wrote:
I was considering that you and shining might have (by thinking the same idea) each placed a different person as the likely lynch, and use the night kill to see which one of you was killed. I didn't mention it as it would have messed up such a plan.
NK analysis is still wifom, but we can try to make something out of it, though the simplest explanation still looks to be best here. I'm just going to repost this here. This seems to take a lot of the force out of the night kill analysis theory.
Zlefin, if you were scum, you probably shouldn't have said this.
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Here is a summary of the main points I find on jarjarbinks and zlefin.
jarjarbinks (from The Shining's case)
Jarjarbinks town reading The Shining so emphatically does seem a bit suspicious. But it's not as bad as The Shining makes it out to be.
Jarjarbinks did show a changing stance on Silverarte that I find suspicious.
I still think that jarjarbinks' vote switch to save me looked towny, but I suppose it could also be a scum deciding to do a sub-optimal play. This is consistent with The Shining saying that jarjarbinks was a scum scrambling as one of his partners was being voted. The timing of this vote switch, right after Tere and I produced cases on Silverarte, does seem suspicious.
I feel that these three points are potentially the strongest points against jarjarbinks. Most of everything else seems minor, or easily explainable, or I can't understand exactly what The Shining is getting at (this happens sometimes.... sorry The Shining, I tried, really).
zlefin
I still don't like his changing stance on Silverarte, either. He says that he didn't town read Silverarte, but this seems to say otherwise. This read is null at lowest, and the words he says seem to imply that the read should be higher. The early suspicion of inactives including Silverarte seems strange. He didn't think that I was ever in danger of being lynched, explaining why he continued to vote Silverarate. And he voted for Silverarte after seeing that everyone was scumreading her.
Zlefin was one of the group (that included me) who voted Hier but said they weren't that happy with the lynch. But zlefin didn't seem at all concerned about finding counterwagons. He said that Hier was better than an RNG lynch and that seemed to be good enough for him.
Zlefin asked people what he should do. I really don't see why a townie would do this here. There are better resources to use than asking people in the thread, and zlefin already said that he read mafia guides. It seems that he is trying to respond to suspicion without actually responding to it.
Then of course, is zlefin's apparent desire to make himself look good. This happens throughout his filter. Asking if he should scumread The Shining is one example of this. Zlefin said that he often read through filters and didn't have any thoughts, but he also kept rereading people until he had a stance on everyone. It looks bad to not have a stance on someone, and zlefin seems to be trying to avoid that, despite apparently having trouble reading some people earlier in the game. His decision to vote for Silverarte is largely based on the fact that Silverarte was commonly scumread, so he is still trying to vote where everyone else does to make himself look good. And of course, here he confidently chooses his lynch target while also spreading the blame to everyone if the lynch goes wrong.
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I'm sorry, I'm sick and I'm having trouble focusing. If anyone has any comments about the post above this, (here in case someone else posts first), please say or link me the time where it was answered before.
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EPT
