|
On May 28 2014 22:06 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2014 21:54 Chromatically wrote:
So I agree that he's done absolutely everything wrong, but I don't really get "too scummy to be scum". Like he's done everything I would expect scum to do in his position. What do you think he would be doing differently as mafia? Or what about it makes you doubt that he's mafia as opposed to just sealing the deal? The "too scummy to be scum" concept is a very fragile and shitty, but surprisingly often correct thing that happens. The idea is basically that if he is mafia, his team knows he made a blunder, so they would help him devise a strategy to come back, or bus him. if bus: I'd expect him to just shut up and not try to come back. Now I know I'm town but other people don't so this is weak from everyone else's perspective, but why on earth is he piling shit on me if his team is busing him. That is basically just helping me gain influcence in town. It's just bad play if he's mafia to give credit to a townie. if they try to save him: I'd expect him/his team/mafia coach to have come up with a better plan than what he has posted. His arguments are just straight up awful, If the mafia team can't collectively think up some better defense than this well.. I just don't want to believe that. And thus, he's being soooo awful that it's possible he's too scummy to be scum. He's blatantly wrong. He's hardly trying to cover up how awful his stuff is. But, there's also the chance that he's just acting on his own, he messed up, he's not thinking long term and thought maybe a wagon could be built on me, and in that case he's just mafia who's playing badly. Like I don't really like or see the point in speculating on this thing. If we have a slam dunk case on someone I'll support it, but currently I see no other outcome for today than lynching him.
Too scummy to be scum. Such a loophole filled argument, but I agree.
There might be 2 scenarios here in my opinion:
1) He is scum and his play gave him off
2) He is town and scum pushed for this by joining the bandwagon.
I would give it a 30% chance to be 1) and a 70% chance to be 2). The only problem is the non-vanilla townies now. Who will they protect/scan/roleblock?
By the way, which setup was used? A/B/C? Could be important for us VT to know.
|
I was trying to throw baits the entire game, from less obvious ones to very obvious ones. Lets go through my thought process one by one shall we
I was initially reading jabber as VT with a shitty play - but changed the moment he gave such crap replies. Thus I was almost certain he was scum, but one cannot be too certain and I started throwing mini baits here and there.
|
The problem is, I am not 100% certain jabbet is the scum we are looking for. This may be looking like scummy play to you, but when the jabber-wagon departs from the station, I'll have a clearer picture other than 10 fingers pointing at jabber for scum
|
On May 29 2014 04:24 Amiko wrote:I am working through reads on other players but here's one I will put up while I work on the others on HaruRH. HaruRH has made some comments I think are scummy or weird, if you are in thread and don't have other stuff to talk about, let me know what you think. 1) Seems to have joined JWZ case on grounds that feel overly non-committalAfter a case is made on jabberwockzerg, HaruRH presents the case as a gamble and talks a bit about odds - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=6#109. To me, this seems like a strange view. If you feel you want to go with the odds, JWZ is no more or less likely to be scum than anyone else. I dislike this for two reasons. (1) it gives no response on ninjabunnies' points; (2) it does not tie him to his vote on JWZ at all - his justification (probability) applies equally to everyone. 2) Tells JWZ to talk about things other than the case on him, but will only unvote JWZ if he addresses the case on himHaruRH more or less suggests JWZ change the subject to avoid getting votes http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=130&topic_id=451317. Initially, I didn't think this was bad - I also wanted to see JWZ scumhunt and talk about other issues, and some other players asked for that as well (Palmar comes to mind). But, HaruRH then says Show nested quote +On May 27 2014 15:51 HaruRH wrote:
what I understood from all jabber's responses are either a high level of newbie play, or scum. I will provide examples later after I get on a computer.
Will not unvote until jabber defends himself convincingly
This is weird because he's told jabber to talk about something else... but won't unvote unless jabber talks more about the topic. 3) Weird role commentsShow nested quote +On May 28 2014 22:33 HaruRH wrote:
I would give it a 30% chance to be 1) and a 70% chance to be 2). The only problem is the non-vanilla townies now. Who will they protect/scan/roleblock?
By the way, which setup was used? A/B/C? Could be important for us VT to know. This feels strange to me for a few reasons as well. (1) There's no point to claiming VT at this time (or in general). (2) I don't understand how he manages to see the different roles in the OP, but misses the red text underneath saying we don't know the setup. Show nested quote +On May 27 2014 09:08 Blazinghand wrote:
This game uses a variable open setup. When the game begins, one of the following setups will be chosen:
A) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 2 Mafia Goons
B) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Watcher, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 2 Mafia Goons
C) 1 Town Doctor, 1 Town Watcher, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 2 Mafia Goons
The mafia will be informed as to which setup is chosen, but the town will not!
I don't see why he'd start thinking about the setup at this point. This post could be trying to role-fish because he is thinking about night kills.
You need to read all the points in context - I suggested for jabber to change topics, but his reply and subsequent posts were questionable or scummy. But he is not definitely scum, but more likely to be scum than others. I would give it a 30% probability he is scum, 50% shit play and 20% VT.
in fact, it is not surprising for people in this newbie game to get baited by this simple setup bait. Read the posts after this post, you should know what I mean.
|
On May 28 2014 22:37 Palmar wrote:
I don't think we know which setup was used.
In fact, palmar seemed to have been baited. It is obvious to VT that we dont know the setup - but palmar is second guessing his own decision of not knowing the setup. A townie will not state 'I don't think', but use stronger words that indicate full understanding of the rules.
Therefore, palmar is either scum or ignorant and I would go with scum. I will keep an eye out for more of his posts.
|
On May 28 2014 22:58 Chromatically wrote:
Why would the setup be important for you to know? How is this relevant at all to the situation?
Chrom's first reaction of asking why I want to know the setup gives me the read that he is VT as he is more worried about what I will do with the setup than if we know the setup. This means that he is looking to defend Town than to start guessing roles, which is scum play.
|
On May 27 2014 21:29 Palmar wrote:
Just read Chrome's post above. I'm feeling good about this lynch. All on board!
What I don't like about palmar's post is that he initially is certain about a jabber lynch
On May 28 2014 21:11 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2014 20:37 Chromatically wrote:On May 28 2014 20:11 Palmar wrote:
Don't ask hard questions Chrom, he might not have an answer right now. hue hue hue Palmar, you still feeling good about this lynch? Amiko, I don't see you pushing anything. Who do you want to lynch and what's your read on jabber? I don't know. I think we have to lynch him. He's flailing so much and saying all the wrong things even after coming back to the thread makes it hard to think he will 100% flip mafia. If he is mafia he is not receiving any help from coaches or teammates.
And then second guess himself by stating that he thinks jabber is 'too scum to be scum'. Weak argument, but I get his point about his coaches and allies helping him. Which is what he is doing now, helping jabber by second guessing jabber?
|
On May 29 2014 09:25 fuba wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2014 09:13 HaruRH wrote:On May 28 2014 22:37 Palmar wrote:
I don't think we know which setup was used. In fact, palmar seemed to have been baited. It is obvious to VT that we dont know the setup - but palmar is second guessing his own decision of not knowing the setup. A townie will not state 'I don't think', but use stronger words that indicate full understanding of the rules. Therefore, palmar is either scum or ignorant and I would go with scum. I will keep an eye out for more of his posts. Eh, he also didn't know that there wasn't a vigi in this game (I think that was him). I think he just plays mafia and checks the setup if it's really important for him to do so. Actually, mafia would know that they were given the setup, so I think scum palmar would be more likely to actually know that town doesn't know. If that makes sense, haha.
That doesn't to me. In fact, I actually read the whole rules and roles because it may actually be important in the future. He was pushing a strategy with vigi, but failed to realise vigi dont exist. Everyone knows mafia was given the setup. Dont use ignorance as an argument, it is weak. What it simply tells me is that the 2 things on his mind were 'vigi' and 'role setup'.
|
On May 30 2014 02:36 Amiko wrote:@HaruRH I have some additional concerns regarding your last few posts. Please respond since it'll help me read you. (1) Position on JWZ vs. Palmar Look at the parts of these two posts- Show nested quote +On May 29 2014 09:08 HaruRH wrote:
(snip)
You need to read all the points in context - I suggested for jabber to change topics, but his reply and subsequent posts were questionable or scummy. But he is not definitely scum, but more likely to be scum than others. I would give it a 30% probability he is scum, 50% shit play and 20% VT.
in fact, it is not surprising for people in this newbie game to get baited by this simple setup bait. Read the posts after this post, you should know what I mean.
Show nested quote +On May 29 2014 09:13 HaruRH wrote:On May 28 2014 22:37 Palmar wrote:
I don't think we know which setup was used. In fact, palmar seemed to have been baited. It is obvious to VT that we dont know the setup - but palmar is second guessing his own decision of not knowing the setup. A townie will not state 'I don't think', but use stronger words that indicate full understanding of the rules. Therefore, palmar is either scum or ignorant and I would go with scum. I will keep an eye out for more of his posts. It seems from these posts that you have a fairly weak read on JWZ as scum at the time of the posts (30% town, 20% mafia). You seemed to have a more certain scumread on Palmar. I'm confused why your vote stays on JWZ. Is Palmar currently your top scum? (2) Setup Comments No one in the game could know the setup at this point regardless of their alignment/role (unless they are somehow a genius and have determined the power roles). So why do you feel Palmar saying he's not sure about the setup is scummy since lack of knowledge would come from town or scum? I guess it does evidence that he didn't read the OP, but I have seen town and scum both do that (for example, one or two newbie games back a few players thought they had a cop when they had a parity cop).
Palmar's read came in less than 12 hours before the jwz lynch - nothing could be done at that point. However, I won't say palmar have a higher chance of being scum than jwz, it is just that his plays are scummy and garner a higher probability of scum from me. Pretty sure mafia knows the setup of A/B/C. It is stated on the op.
Lets rank some scumreads
1) palmar 30% scum 10% ignorance (can easily turn into scum if he is caught not being ignorant but scummy play) 60% VT
2) sqrt 20% scum ( his play is wishy washy) 80 % VT
3) mderg 20% scum ( reading off his filter makes me want to point things out, yet have nothing to point. Weird.) 80% VT
The rest have either a low scumread due to their post types (slam/sloosh) or because they presented their alignment quickly (Chrom/27)
|
After re-reading through mderg's filter, then through gooble and MZ's again, I seem to agree with mderg for his points against gooble. Jwz flipping town would mean that all 3 mafia voted for jwz - it is simply too risky to deviate from the bandwagon without risk. Just by this matter of fact, mderg have regained my trust in him. In fact, there is also no reason for the first 3 (27/me/chrom) to have a higher chance of being scum as chrom and I voted simply because we saw the case against jwz faster.
Rather, sqrt still have my suspicions. He was deviating from the beginning by switching targets instantly, from palmar, to bandwagon, then palmar again, bandwagon again then lastly fuba. I know that some people are pretty wishy washy when it comes to voting, but sqrt seems to be dodging and is not presenting any cases for now, but rather spectate the game for now.
Palmar - you still did not address my point of why did you initially strongly agree with the bandwagon, but fall off later? Stronger cases were put out against him at that point.
|
On May 30 2014 08:01 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
@haru
You didn't put people such as amiko or MZ. What is your take on them?
MZ's play is indeed weird. Irrational to a certain degree. Sorry but phones dont let me multiquote so I would need to slowly quote, one by one.
Amiko is driving dicussion on different lynch targets. Could be scum ( the last person you would expect to be scum would be amiko, the discussion maker). Greater possibility of VT.
|
On May 30 2014 09:42 Chromatically wrote:
out of the people I didn't mention, I would put them in order of decreasing scumminess
gobble
slam
haru
fuba
What about 27B? What are your thoughts and reads?
|
On May 30 2014 10:38 Amiko wrote:On HaruI made some points on Haru. I still think his responses are still pretty weird. For instance, this is from his last post- Show nested quote +On May 30 2014 07:33 HaruRH wrote:
Lets rank some scumreads
1) palmar 30% scum 10% ignorance (can easily turn into scum if he is caught not being ignorant but scummy play) 60% VT
2) sqrt 20% scum ( his play is wishy washy) 80 % VT
3) mderg 20% scum ( reading off his filter makes me want to point things out, yet have nothing to point. Weird.) 80% VT
The rest have either a low scumread due to their post types (slam/sloosh) or because they presented their alignment quickly (Chrom/27)
“Low” Scumreads (High Scumreads = 30%?) First, look at the second paragraph of the quote above. He is stating he has a low scumread on slam, slosh, chrom, and 27ninjabunnies. The way it’s written, it seems like this means that these players have a low scumread, as opposed to the other players he’s discussed. But, if you look at the post above, his reads on Palmar/sqrt/mderg are 30% scum or 20% scum. This doesn’t feel right to me – if I thought someone was 80% town VT, I think I would consider that a townread on that player, not a scumread.I’ll also mention that to me, his reads are weird (Palmar and mderg both seem towny to me right now). @MHaru: If you understand my point here, can you clarify your reads here? You could talk about Palmar – I think his play yesterday is sort of three parts – 1) vote on bunnies, 2) pushing the jabber case, 3) interactions with M_Z. I’d appreciate your comments on his interactions with M_Z the most, if those contributed to your read, since I think M_Z should get some attention today. Could you also explain what you mean by the “post types” for Alakaslam and slOosh? Although the two interacted, I feel like they post in different ways so I’m not sure what you mean.
So am I supposed to say I read everyone as town?
In my case, scumreads are the top 3 highest % of scum. Since it is only day 2, it is even more weird for me to set anyone higher than 50% - almost saying that they are 50% scum is lime saying he IS scum. Too extreme for me. I think that the way someone scumread should not be a case for being scum, nor should methods feel weird because it is MY method after all. Much like how sqrt's scumreads make me squirm.
Alakaslam pops in for a few exchanges before disappearing, and much of his posts are... weird.
Sloosh starts off with accusations, then disappears.
I would push for a MZ or palmar lynch today. However, more emphasis on palmar as it is not just me who have problems with palmar's posts.
|
On May 30 2014 11:57 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Im super glad chrom was town there.
. Sorry for not being more active through the night.
I think the lynch should be fuba, or mZ, ill give reads why in a minute since I just got home. Just wanted to update.
Anything specific yall want me to look at??
Please look at palmar.
|
On May 30 2014 13:06 Amiko wrote:Okay, reading through filters, slOosh is my top scum right now and I want to lynch him. There’s other things that I think support scumreading him, but I think this is the best point so I want to start here and build. I think the central point is: After voting jabber, slOosh does nothing to develop his feelings on jabber. He doesn't try to get explanations from jabber or even follow up after jabber's responsesThis is the post where slOosh joins the vote for jabber. Show nested quote +On May 28 2014 02:09 slOosh wrote:
Seems straightforward.
##Vote: jabberwockzerg Initially, this is worrisome because slOosh is joining the wagon in a noncommittal way. He isn’t stating what he agrees or disagrees with. This is a “+1” post. This is potentially scummy because it’s bandwagoning without commitment. But the remainder of the day is what turns from suspicious to scummy.After his vote, slOosh does almost nothing on the lynch on jabber. So, take a look at other players’ actions D1. Other players question jabber – they are not sure on the lynch, so they want to get more information or talk about the issue more with other players. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- slOosh's D1 is different from almost every other player D1 because of his lack of interaction or followup on slOoshI went through every players' filter and I think almost all of them (maybe not Slam) support my read on slOosh as uninterested in the jabber lynch. This is a little long so I'll put it in a spoiler, but I really invite you to read through it. + Show Spoiler +27Ninjabunnies:Many tons of interaction with jabber after she votes on him. + Show Spoiler +Meapak_Ziphh doesn’t interact with jabber much, but he does comment on the case numerous times through D1 and explaining how he feels on the lynch. His filter doesn’t look as good as bunnies to me – he doesn’t really ask jabber anything directly or necessarily stir up discussion. I think he's kind of suspicious anyway, but he’s still better than slOosh. + Show Spoiler +Gobbledydook:starts off with some hesitancy on the lynch and gives fair reasons, explains his thoughts as he goes, addresses comments to jabber as well. + Show Spoiler +HaruRH:A lot of Haru’s talk about JWZ is responsive, but he does address JWZ directly as well and comments on the lynch multiple times through d1. As an aside, rereading Haru’s talk D1 is the main reasons I now want to push slOosh over Haru. I still have doubts, for sure, but Haru’s level of interactionwith jabber feels so much higher than slOosh’s. + Show Spoiler +Sqrt:Sqrt was around when the case was made on jabber and interacted some with jabber and the players involved. He does ask jabber some questions and comments on jabber’s subsequent posts + Show Spoiler +Alakaslam: Ehh slam doesn’t really do much better than slOosh in this respect. He does have a little more on JWZ but it’s not too substantial either. + Show Spoiler +Mderg, Fuba, Palmar: I’m not going back into their filters because I did a lot already, and I know these players talked a lot about the jabber wagon on D1 so I don’t really want to post links on them for no reason. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So I just went through all these players. Why? It’s certainly possible for mafia to ask questions to jabber. They probably did! But, it is really hard for me to believe that town joins a vote on jabber, yet doesn’t seem to revisit the issue, talk about its merits with other players, or get some sort of confirmation from jabber.Pretty much every player in the game discussed the jabber lynch to some extent. Maybe we questioned jabber, or we explained our thoughts on why it could be a natural mistake, a scumslip, what jabber’s followup comments meant to us, etc. slOosh doesn’t ask any questions to jabber, or really follow up on the lynch. We get his explanation here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=12#229). After voting for jabber, slOosh's D1 is questioning other players on why they vote for jabber, talking about Slam & Palmar, etc. Seriously, take a look at his filter and see how little he has to say about the lynch that was there basically the entire day. Wheres other players expressed doubt through trying to get more information, press jabber for more information, etc., If you are town, you (like me) did not know whether jabber was mafia or not. You talked about the lynch, you read jabber's responses, and you probably considered them and wrote something about your reads. slOosh's d1 reflects indifference to the lynch. I feel that indifference comes from scum. ##Vote: slOosh
good points there. However, given such little examples of sloosh's words, there is still a chance that he is town.
Town sloosh may not talk much and elaborate since it is still day 1, a bandwagon is forming out of control and he is a VT with nothing much to do.
scum sloosh will be trying to avoid attention d1 and bandwagon just for the sake of it. Also, the lack of empathy towards jwz points him towards an anomaly route - more likely to be scum.
still, I would want to wait for his responses before I vote.
|
On May 30 2014 16:04 Alakaslam wrote:
Yet, oddly, I give you another example of us agreeing .
##Vote: Sloosh
So... why? Care to elaborate?
|
On May 28 2014 16:48 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:K sqrt I'm starting to have a serious problem here. You go from this: Show nested quote +On May 28 2014 10:19 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Here's what I think is going to happen, according to the sqrtofneg1 rule.
jwz is gonna be lynched, gonna flip vt.
Palmar is gonna end up scum.
I honestly don't think anyone will move their vote away from jwz. I don't expect anyone to, also.
But I kind of think he's town. To this: Show nested quote +On May 28 2014 10:25 Chromatically wrote:
sqrt why are you not convincing people to vote for Palmar? Show nested quote +On May 28 2014 10:26 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Cause I don't think it will happen.
And I also think there's a good chance that jwz is scum too. You can't "think he's town" and think he's scum too" at the same time. This is actually pretty scummy imo. Oh hey 27NB: Show nested quote +On May 28 2014 11:08 27ninjabunnies wrote:On May 28 2014 10:59 Chromatically wrote:
this is quite possibly the finest scumhunting tl has seen in ages Hey im scumhunting.... So im thinking, Team for mafia: Jabber/Sqrt/mderg Or Jabber/palmer/mderg Something like that, Id lynch both jabber and mderg though I also am really digging this post here although I disagree with mderg and I'd insert someone else, who I'm not sure of yet. So Palmar, just so the record is straight, now I'm calling sqrt scum for clearly contradicting himself in an attempt to be vague and not get caught supporting the wrong person.
Now that I re-read MZ's filter, nothing makes sense.
1) He is lynching according to bandwagons.
he said that me and fuba were the most scum, after jabber. Right after that, he agreed that palmar and sqrt are the scummiest. He did not provide any sort of reasons or arguments as to why sqrt is his main suspect (that short paragraph is not a good argument).
2) Had more reasons to lynch others such as palmar, but voted for jwz at the last minute.
He had a long argument with palmar and have already locked on palmar as scum, yet voted for jwz with no explanation of his last minute choice. No substantial evidence to vote for jwz, yet went for it.
3) not really a main point but, palmar did not die.
This is more of a slippery slope argument as the very fact that palmar did not die seems to indicate that the rivalry between palmar and MZ ha e protected palmar. In no way would palmar ever die of mafia should this be true.
Overall, I would vote MZ until he decides to explain himself properly.
##vote : Meapak_Ziphh
|
This is getting worse and worse.
Firstly, my reads on palmar was distrupted because he did not read the op, which I assumed everyone to do so.
Secondly, much of my reads on MZ is attributed to him forgetting to vote - last minute vote wws what I was banking on, but since it's a mistake now, I have no case against him.
I will go with the flow for now until someone else piques my interest again.
## unvote
## vote: slOosh
|
After reading slOosh's post, it oddly feels like what I'll say if I'm lynched today. I'm hopping off the sloosh wagon.
##Unvote
##Vote: Meapak_Ziphh
|
Pretty sure sloosh is still dead unless someone changes fast.
In fact, this day gave us tons of information. Somebody have just exceeded 50% scum level..
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
