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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
EDIT: What did I say?
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Let me first say that I claim no special knowledge of the BW scene in Korea, or the negociations between Gretech and Kespa. I know only as much as has been faithfully reported by Milkis here and here. So if Rekrul or someone wants to come in and tell me I’m completely wrong, that’d be welcome. But my thoughts here are based upon this common knowledge.
Here’s What I Know:
These last few weeks seem to have been a seminal period for esports. On one hand, the MSL saw a series between Flash and Jaedong that lived up to the hype, and the two OSL finalists were determined, set to play a first ever finals in Shanghai. Meanwhile, the budding Sc2 foreign scene delivered two exciting live events, in Europe and North America, while in Korea the GSL kicked off with two days of offline qualifiers. And as everyone knows, the tournament will see several games of the Round of 64 played live on OGN. With such a multitude of events being played, it might seem initially that esports is on the cusp of a huge breakthrough.
Yet, as this week marks the conclusion of the MSL and the OSL, it may also mean the end of these tournaments, and proleague forever. Negotiations between Gretech, GOM’s parent company, and Kespa and MBC seem to have completely fallen through. It seems likely at this point, that should proleague and the MSL begin next season, they will do so as outlaw leagues, with the event of litigation almost a certainty. Whether or not Kespa’s argument over copyright has merit or not is another issue entirely, and one that I am ill-positioned to answer. But it should be obvious that a court case is a scenario we don’t want to reach, and one that, if lost, would spell the death of the BW scene.
Doubtless many readers on TL.net wouldn’t have a problem with that. Those of you who came to this site in anticipation of Sc2’s beta and launch, those of you who had to sit through people whining about BW being the harder game or Sc2 being a colossal disappointment, surely see the imminent death of the BW scene as a good thing. BW’s passing is commonly seen as the natural order of things, just as Fifa ‘08 is replaced by Fifa ‘09, and then subsequent versions of the game. Furthermore, among those familiar with the BW scene, or those familiar with generations of Blizzard games, there is a predisposition to take the side of Blizzard/Gretech against Kespa. While Blizzard’s ability to design quality games has become a given, Kespa is an organization who has a habit of commonly making silly petty mistakes. Their game-time decisions always invite controversy, and their handling of the networks and players and teams has often been suspect. Yet we as a community, both Sc2 and BW must reject these lines of thinking. The untimely death of the BW scene is a disaster not only for that specific industry, but for Sc2 and esports as well. If the BW scene dies this year, then Sc2 cannot and will not succeed.
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Esports
First, let me mention what I call success. For most games, success is making money, selling units, and creating a fairly robust community of players. Yet for the starcraft line, success means something else entirely. BW is the best selling PC game on earth. It seems fair to say that it is then one of the best played computer games. This alone sets an extremely high bar. Yet BW is the only video game to have ever achieved commercial success as an esport. The term esport is literally inseparable from the first starcraft game. Therefore, while Sc2 may be considered a success already by any normal metric, it will always be compared to it’s older brother, and currently compares quite unfavorably, although to compare them at this point in time is obviously not fair. Sc2’s legacy from the very beginning has been to function as an esport in the mold of BW. But to assume that Sc2 can organically achieve the success as an esport that BW achieved seems farfetched to me. BW’s unparalleled achievements are product of a number of different factors that seem unlikely to be all repeated. These factors include but aren’t limited to the computer boom in Korea, its inexpensive cost, the personality of boxer, and its overall quality, to name a few. While Sc2 is an excellent game, and through extensive play may someday see the level of intricacy shown in BW, and while Sc2 may see a charismatic, flashy player rise win a bunch of tournaments, and become a spokesman for the esport, it simply isn’t possible for Sc2 to gain all of the advantages that BW had, and that made it so successful. But Sc2 shouldn’t be expected to take the same path as BW. There is no one way to success, and Sc2 can easily reach it through its own unique advantages. Chief among these advantages is the head start its gotten from its older brother. As an example of this, consider that Sc2 has developed significantly faster in terms of strategy than BW did, simply because we know where to look in coming up with new tactics and builds. Similarly, in order to become a success as an esport, Sc2 has to use the advantages given to it by BW’s foothold, and use the lessons learned by BW as it struggled to gain mainstream attention.
In killing BW, however, Sc2 is a parasite killing its host. It is only through BW, that Sc2 can reasonably be expected to make it as an esport. If Gretech and Blizzard pull the outstretched hand of Kespa into the water with them, then there will be no one left to help Sc2 onto the boat.
One final note about success as an esport. Inherent in this explanation is the answer to another frequently asked question; “Why Korea?” The answer, of course, is “Where else?” Korea is the only country on earth with the market, the infrastructure, and the history to allow Sc2 to grow rapidly and healthily. If Sc2 fails in korea, it will be a failure as an esport, and therefore as a worthy follow-up to BW.
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Reasons Why
#1: Ill-will:
By now everyone knows of the follies of Blizzard’s Korean launch of Sc2, and how it has created a somewhat unfair backlash against the game. From hanging up posters in unwelcome spots, to advertising in illegal spots, Blizzard peppered their Korean launch with childish errors that have retarded the sale of the game since. Yet the ill-will caused by some heavy-handed and arrogant marketing tactics does not strike me as the kind of animosity that is likely to last. Blizzard didn’t personally insult any of their audience, and the laws they broke are not particularly serious. If Sc2 can distinguish itself as a game and an esport, the audience and the purchases would come.
Except, of course, if Blizzard really did something huge to anger Korean esports fans. And forcing out their flagship leagues might just be it. Blizzard and Gretech’s ham-fisted attempt to shut down proleague and the MSL in the search for more money and better airtime, seems to be exactly the kind of insult that could spell the end of Sc2’s career in Korea. The core audience for Sc2 is identical to the core audience that is currently in place for BW. Alienating that audience, leaves nobody left to watch. And for the few adventurous (or traitorous) souls who might give Sc2 a try? Forcing comparisons in watch-ability and interest at this stage is a battle that Sc2 cannot win.
#2: No pedigree, No infrastructure:
You could not make people watch the Scottish Premier League by forcibly killing off the English Premier League. If the American Arena Football League somehow forced the NFL to fold, the millions of Monday night football watchers wouldn’t switch over to the AFL.
In Blizzard and GOM’s maneuverings, there seems to be an assumption that people will always watch esports, and, BW being absent would doubtless switch over to Sc2. Yet only those who have no knowledge of the tortuous history of Korean star craft would harbor such views. If BW dies, many Koreans will simply watch other established sports, like baseball and soccer instead. Or perhaps they’ll turn off the PC or the tv altogether. Either way, esports isn’t something that needs to exist, or will always exist in some form or another. Esports exists today because of the tenacity and hard work of many many people, including those in Kespa. Those people made sure professional programs were put on tv, and exciting games were played. Those people put their hearts and souls into keeping BW alive, and in the minds of the viewers. All of the ground BW has at the moment is extremely hard won, but also territory that could, at any moment, be given away. The match fixing scandal was potentially disastrous for BW, yet in part because of the integrity of the players and coaches who were not involved, the game survived and has delivered in the summer since. But if BW is shut off, this territory will be closed off completely.
Consider that the launch of a new television show is always handled by putting the new show after an existing favorite. The network would never move a popular program from its popular spot in order to take a huge risk on another program. If it did, both programs would likely decline in popularity. See Jay Leno, or New Coke. It’s the same principal.
Not only will the hard won attention of viewers be lost if Sc2 is forced upon people, but the entire infrastructure of BW will also be lost. The existing programming teams will have no real reason to stay in existence should proleague be eliminated. The coaches, players, managers will all be out of jobs. Some may stay and try to catch up to Sc2, and some may move on. No matter what, there will be a huge loss of talent and expertise. Whatever mechanism is developed to deal with Sc2 and future games will have to be built from scratch if the BW industry is shoved out the door. This is much more readily agreed to be a bad thing. I think the loss of Kespa, (an organization which, for my money has been doing much better with each successive year as it learns on the job) would be a bad thing as well, but I don’t think people will be quite so aggrieved as if the teams and the players left.
#3: No Credibility:
The thing everyone always remarks about BW is that it is still so popular more than ten years after its release. Obviously that’s a credit to the energies of the people and organizations I mentioned above, but that ten years is more than a statistic. What is means is that in among video games, especially highly complex video games, (Minesweeper, for example, doesn’t count) BW has enjoyed a lifetime that’s unheard of. There is no complex video game in existence that has been played for as long and as consistently as BW, and obviously, BW’s pro scene has been the most reliable pro scene a video game has ever enjoyed.
And that’s enormous. Many video games are fun to play and watch, but the point of creating a professional scene dedicated to any one game is generally a bit silly, as games change and are updated and replaced all the time. With BW, it’s been the opposite. That means that mainstream sponsors (Korean Air, Shinhan Bank) felt comfortable in sponsoring leagues and tournaments, because they knew the product would remain the same. Similarly, there has been a constant influx of new talent into the BW pool, as players like Action, and BaBy have come up extremely recently. They have been able to do so because the game they watched and played as much younger kids is the same game they watch and play on tv. If a kid is potentially good enough to play this game for a living, he needs to know that the league he wants to play in will still be there down the road. Otherwise, it simply doesn’t make any sense to practice it.
Which means that if BW is killed off at ten years, it sets a terrible precedent for all of esports. BW was the game that defied the yearly/bi-yearly cycle of video games. Every year, BW reappeared on tv, and the players got better and better. Even today, we cannot be sure that players have hit the skill and mental ceiling for BW. Kids like Jaedong, and Flash, Action and BaBy played the game through their teens, and were able to catch up after many years to the top players. Eventually, Flash and Jaedong would age, and they would be replaced by other players. If this doesn’t happen, then esports has been proven to be a useless venture, and one that cannot last. Which kids will play Sc2 with the dream of playing among the best players, if they know the game they’ve invested so much time into will promptly be washed away by Warcraft 4, or Starcraft 3? Which sponsors will put down money to help a league that will be ancient history in a few short years?
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TL;DR
In sum, I have one major point. Sc2 needs BW if it wants to succeed. To expect Sc2 to emerge, like a phoenix, from the ashes of a newly terminated Brood War is gross naiveté. In fact, if Sc2 and BW are to succeed as esports in the future, the conventional business model of video games; replace and replay, must be turned on it’s head. Esports must be lasting and growing institutions, not yearly flights of fancy. If we want to see the highest quality games, and the highest quality tournaments, then Sc2 and BW must be linked together as older brother to younger brother, [I]not[/I\ as father to son. If we fail to make this distinction in the coming months, then it will be too late for both games.
Instead, I’d love to see the anger that was directed at GOM for it’s idiotic paying stream system to be focused at the Blizzard and their Gretech puppets. If the fans of esports in general, whether Sc2 or BW don’t speak up and demand a deal on BW, then I fear the dream of Korean esports is doomed.
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Thank you for echoing my thoughts with such lucidity and eloquence.
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Agreed. Even as someone who has no interest in watching sc2 now, I'm more than willing to come back and check on it in a few years to see if the play has matured to the point where i will find it interesting. However, Sc2 simply won't have a future as a professional esport if BW dies out.
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On September 04 2010 12:07 tree.hugger wrote:
Yet we as a community, both Sc2 and BW must reject these lines of thinking. The untimely death of the BW scene is a disaster not only for that specific industry, but for Sc2 and esports as well. If the BW scene dies this year, then Sc2 cannot and will not succeed.
(...)
In killing BW, however, Sc2 is a parasite killing its host. It is only through BW, that Sc2 can reasonably be expected to make it as an esport. If Gretech and Blizzard pull the outstretched hand of Kespa into the water with them, then there will be no one left to help Sc2 onto the boat.
(...)
In sum, I have one major point. Sc2 needs BW if it wants to succeed. To expect Sc2 to emerge, like a phoenix, from the ashes of a newly terminated Brood War is gross naiveté.
I read the entirety of your post, and found no adequate justification for any of these statements. I can tell you put a lot of time and feeling into this, but instead of seeing logical steps and a well-supported core argument, I see logical jumps everywhere and statements that are as controversial as they are unfounded.
Why would SC2 fare better with BW alive? Would the audience continue watching BW, migrate to SC2, or enjoy both? Why is only Korea relevant to the development of e-Sports? What about the storm clouds converging over the BW scene, with coaches resigning/being fired, teams attempting to disband and match-fixing scandals? Does this not merit to consider the possibility that the BW scene is rotting from within? What about the players and commentators who've made a smooth transition to the SC2 scene- more top-level foreigners than you can count, Tester, JulyZerg, Day[9], and the rise of new commentators in HD and Husky among others? What about the SC2 teams and training houses already setting up shop in Korea? Why should the SC2 fans care that the BW scene is hemorrhaging talent, if that talent is migrating straight to SC2? What about all the WC3 pros who are migrating to SC2, and from other strategy games as well- like fan-favorite TLO coming from having played Supreme Commander?
Your post is made from a BW perspective. You don't seem to be in touch with the SC2 scene- or if you are, you don't reflect that in your post. All in all, I completely disagree with your conclusions; I see no reason why SC2 cannot succeed if BW dies.
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On September 04 2010 12:51 Zato-1 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2010 12:07 tree.hugger wrote:
Yet we as a community, both Sc2 and BW must reject these lines of thinking. The untimely death of the BW scene is a disaster not only for that specific industry, but for Sc2 and esports as well. If the BW scene dies this year, then Sc2 cannot and will not succeed.
(...)
In killing BW, however, Sc2 is a parasite killing its host. It is only through BW, that Sc2 can reasonably be expected to make it as an esport. If Gretech and Blizzard pull the outstretched hand of Kespa into the water with them, then there will be no one left to help Sc2 onto the boat.
(...)
In sum, I have one major point. Sc2 needs BW if it wants to succeed. To expect Sc2 to emerge, like a phoenix, from the ashes of a newly terminated Brood War is gross naiveté. I read the entirety of your post, and found no adequate justification for any of these statements. I can tell you put a lot of time and feeling into this, but instead of seeing logical steps and a well-supported core argument, I see logical jumps everywhere and statements that are as controversial as they are unfounded. Why would SC2 fare better with BW alive? Would the audience continue watching BW, migrate to SC2, or enjoy both? Why is only Korea relevant to the development of e-Sports? What about the storm clouds converging over the BW scene, with coaches resigning/being fired, teams attempting to disband and match-fixing scandals? Does this not merit to consider the possibility that the BW scene is rotting from within? What about the players and commentators who've made a smooth transition to the SC2 scene- more top-level foreigners than you can count, Tester, JulyZerg, Day[9], and the rise of new commentators in HD and Husky among others? Why should the SC2 fans care that the BW scene is hemorrhaging talent, if that talent is migrating straight to SC2? What about all the WC3 pros who are migrating to SC2, and from other strategy games as well- like fan-favorite TLO coming from having played Supreme Commander? Your post is made from a BW perspective. You don't seem to be in touch with the SC2 scene- or if you are, you don't reflect that in your post. All in all, I completely disagree with your conclusions; I see no reason why SC2 cannot succeed if BW dies.
I see no reason why they can't co-exist. The match making scandal is one thing, and if anything it's a sign really that people are taking gaming seriously, it's a bit ironic but true. If no on gave a shit about BW, it wouldn't have become a scandal.
Just because there are players and commentates coming into Sc2, what does that say about BW? Nothing at all, all the players coming from BW have been in-active for a long time anyways.
Although I do disagree with some points of the OP ( like Sc2 not being able to live at all without BW) I do think that it is much better to have them both.
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On September 04 2010 12:51 Zato-1 wrote:
I read the entirety of your post, and found no adequate justification for any of these statements. I can tell you put a lot of time and feeling into this, but instead of seeing logical steps and a well-supported core argument, I see logical jumps everywhere and statements that are as controversial as they are unfounded.
You dismissed the justification provided, offhand, without addressing any of the points made.
I am not impressed.
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On September 04 2010 12:59 RoarMan wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2010 12:51 Zato-1 wrote:On September 04 2010 12:07 tree.hugger wrote:
Yet we as a community, both Sc2 and BW must reject these lines of thinking. The untimely death of the BW scene is a disaster not only for that specific industry, but for Sc2 and esports as well. If the BW scene dies this year, then Sc2 cannot and will not succeed.
(...)
In killing BW, however, Sc2 is a parasite killing its host. It is only through BW, that Sc2 can reasonably be expected to make it as an esport. If Gretech and Blizzard pull the outstretched hand of Kespa into the water with them, then there will be no one left to help Sc2 onto the boat.
(...)
In sum, I have one major point. Sc2 needs BW if it wants to succeed. To expect Sc2 to emerge, like a phoenix, from the ashes of a newly terminated Brood War is gross naiveté. I read the entirety of your post, and found no adequate justification for any of these statements. I can tell you put a lot of time and feeling into this, but instead of seeing logical steps and a well-supported core argument, I see logical jumps everywhere and statements that are as controversial as they are unfounded. Why would SC2 fare better with BW alive? Would the audience continue watching BW, migrate to SC2, or enjoy both? Why is only Korea relevant to the development of e-Sports? What about the storm clouds converging over the BW scene, with coaches resigning/being fired, teams attempting to disband and match-fixing scandals? Does this not merit to consider the possibility that the BW scene is rotting from within? What about the players and commentators who've made a smooth transition to the SC2 scene- more top-level foreigners than you can count, Tester, JulyZerg, Day[9], and the rise of new commentators in HD and Husky among others? Why should the SC2 fans care that the BW scene is hemorrhaging talent, if that talent is migrating straight to SC2? What about all the WC3 pros who are migrating to SC2, and from other strategy games as well- like fan-favorite TLO coming from having played Supreme Commander? Your post is made from a BW perspective. You don't seem to be in touch with the SC2 scene- or if you are, you don't reflect that in your post. All in all, I completely disagree with your conclusions; I see no reason why SC2 cannot succeed if BW dies. So what's your point. Do you want BW to die? Would you like them both? Do you simply want Sc2 to take over? I see no reason why they can't co-exist. The match making scandal is one thing, and if anything it's a sign really that people are taking gaming seriously, it's a bit ironic but true. If no on gave a shit about BW, it wouldn't have become a scandal. Just because there are players and commentates coming into Sc2, what does that say about BW? Nothing at all, all the players coming from BW have been in-active for a long time anyways.
The OP's point is that the death of the BW scene would be as tragic to BW as it would be to SC2; that SC2 cannot succeed without BW. My point, is that those claims and the supporting arguments used do not hold; in other words, SC2 CAN succeed if the BW pro-scene dies out.
As to your other points- the burden of proof is on the OP, not on me. He claims that the survival of the BW scene is critical; I point out complications. He claims that SC2 can only exist, if it co-exists with BW; I ask him to elaborate on how exactly they would co-exist, and argue that there are reasons to think that SC2 could survive/succeed without this co-existence.
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You seem myopically focused on Korea.
Korea has been the bastion of the BW scene, its true.
But that has never translated to success outside of Korea. Prior to the launch of SC2, the number of Americans and Europeans who cared in any way about BW numbered in the tens of thousands--that is, probably less than can be found in the stands of any regular-season NFL game.
Nor has the BW scene seen significant growth in recent years.
The possibility that BW grows beyond what it is currently is essentially 0%. It is what it is--a niche sport that has realized its potential, if not in terms of skill than certainly in terms of commercial viability, in the only country that cares about it at all.
SC2 is already vastly more popular as a spectator sport outside of Korea than BW has ever been, or ever will be.
So why should it attempt to simply mimic BW? We know what BW-style "success" looks like--a decent-sized, highly dedicated fanbase from a single nation.
If SC2 is even one sixth as popular in the United States alone as BW is in Korea, it will have achieved as many fans as BW did, simply by virtue of the USA's larger population.
SC2 should not be aiming to be "the next BW". It should be aiming much higher than that--to be a successful e-sport worldwide. Success in Korea is one component of that, but it is far from the only one. If Korea never embraces SC2, but the rest of the world does, that in of itself will make SC2 bigger than BW has ever been.
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I don't see Blizzard asking for what's rightfully theirs as "killing off BW". KeSPA needs to show some respect and recognize Blizzard for what they are and what they've done, instead of pretending that they have no claim on the game they created. If BW dies, you'll know who to blame (And in case you don't, let me give you a hint; It's not Blizzard).
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Blizzard is a company. So is Kespa. Both of these organizations do whats in their business interests, not for the love of e-sport.
If Blizzard wants to kill of sc1 to promote sc2, (and it is in their interest to do so), than they will most likely do it.
Even if all the korean fans decided to boycott sc2 and watch other sports or do whatever, sc1 league are still under blizzard control and will slowly, yet surely die. Boycotting SC2 will not bring sc1 back unless blizzard wants it to continued. Worst case scenario: SC2 e-sport fail, SC1 e-sports is shut down, kespa went out of business, blizzard release another MMO to make more money and plan SC3 for 2020, and all the korean sc fans watch other sports.
Either way, there is just no legal way for kespa to win a legal battle against blizzard regarding copy rights.
PS: the first few seasons of GSL will fail. The only way for SC2 e-sports to survive in the future required: a more functioning bnet, continued patch and balance, and a sc1 style pro scene with teams, sponsor, and a regular salaries for pro-gamers.
PSS: Both Blizzard and Kespa fail at e-sport. They are both too greedy and want too much power. When greeds and power are taken out of the equation, we can have some real e-sports, even by amateurs such as the HDH invitational which got like 200k views and growing.
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On September 04 2010 12:59 RoarMan wrote:
I see no reason why they can't co-exist. The match making scandal is one thing, and if anything it's a sign really that people are taking gaming seriously, it's a bit ironic but true. If no on gave a shit about BW, it wouldn't have become a scandal.
Just because there are players and commentates coming into Sc2, what does that say about BW? Nothing at all, all the players coming from BW have been in-active for a long time anyways.
Although I do disagree with some points of the OP ( like Sc2 not being able to live at all without BW) I do think that it is much better to have them both.
As the current situation stands now it cannot co-exist simply because Kespa wants to deny SC2 foothold in SK, while blizzard wants to promote it (and control over every step of their products, etc.etc.), if it even means killing KESPA along with the Broodwar. As always, there are no innocent sides, and the most damaged side is the fans. Co-existing is what fans want, but in reality, until KeSPa and blizz shake their hands and smoke a peace pipe, no such thing will happen, and thus, it will prolly end up in BW scene being demolished.
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On September 04 2010 12:59 RoarMan wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2010 12:51 Zato-1 wrote:On September 04 2010 12:07 tree.hugger wrote:
Yet we as a community, both Sc2 and BW must reject these lines of thinking. The untimely death of the BW scene is a disaster not only for that specific industry, but for Sc2 and esports as well. If the BW scene dies this year, then Sc2 cannot and will not succeed.
(...)
In killing BW, however, Sc2 is a parasite killing its host. It is only through BW, that Sc2 can reasonably be expected to make it as an esport. If Gretech and Blizzard pull the outstretched hand of Kespa into the water with them, then there will be no one left to help Sc2 onto the boat.
(...)
In sum, I have one major point. Sc2 needs BW if it wants to succeed. To expect Sc2 to emerge, like a phoenix, from the ashes of a newly terminated Brood War is gross naiveté. I read the entirety of your post, and found no adequate justification for any of these statements. I can tell you put a lot of time and feeling into this, but instead of seeing logical steps and a well-supported core argument, I see logical jumps everywhere and statements that are as controversial as they are unfounded. Why would SC2 fare better with BW alive? Would the audience continue watching BW, migrate to SC2, or enjoy both? Why is only Korea relevant to the development of e-Sports? What about the storm clouds converging over the BW scene, with coaches resigning/being fired, teams attempting to disband and match-fixing scandals? Does this not merit to consider the possibility that the BW scene is rotting from within? What about the players and commentators who've made a smooth transition to the SC2 scene- more top-level foreigners than you can count, Tester, JulyZerg, Day[9], and the rise of new commentators in HD and Husky among others? Why should the SC2 fans care that the BW scene is hemorrhaging talent, if that talent is migrating straight to SC2? What about all the WC3 pros who are migrating to SC2, and from other strategy games as well- like fan-favorite TLO coming from having played Supreme Commander? Your post is made from a BW perspective. You don't seem to be in touch with the SC2 scene- or if you are, you don't reflect that in your post. All in all, I completely disagree with your conclusions; I see no reason why SC2 cannot succeed if BW dies. I see no reason why they can't co-exist. The match making scandal is one thing, and if anything it's a sign really that people are taking gaming seriously, it's a bit ironic but true. If no on gave a shit about BW, it wouldn't have become a scandal. Just because there are players and commentates coming into Sc2, what does that say about BW? Nothing at all, all the players coming from BW have been in-active for a long time anyways.
Wait, so everyone on TL who has switched over (including the active Team Liquid clan, many frequenters, etc...) have been inactive for a long time? IdrA has been inactive for a long time?
Sure, most of the people in the GSL may be old timers or B-teamers, but that's only because of KeSPA teams not participating. And criticize them all you want, Brood War "B-teamers" are still exceptional players when compared to the other 99.5% of us players.
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Your points are all really good and this is really well written, but you have to take into consideration that blizzard only understands $$$-signs and it's obvious they see sc2 as their new cash cow and don't want broodwar ruining that. They do not care much about the proscene in Korea or even about e-esports afaik, the bottom line for them is finding a smart strategy to get as many people to buy sc2 cd's as possible.
I don't think broodwar will die just like that, but proleague disappearing and other competitions disappearing would indeed be sad.
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On September 04 2010 13:09 awesomoecalypse wrote:
You seem myopically focused on Korea.
Korea has been the bastion of the BW scene, its true.
But that has never translated to success outside of Korea. Prior to the launch of SC2, the number of Americans and Europeans who cared in any way about BW numbered in the tens of thousands--that is, probably less than can be found in the stands of any regular-season NFL game.
Nor has the BW scene seen significant growth in recent years.
The possibility that BW grows beyond what it is currently is essentially 0%. It is what it is--a niche sport that has realized its potential, if not in terms of skill than certainly in terms of commercial viability, in the only country that cares about it at all.
SC2 is already vastly more popular as a spectator sport around the world than BW has ever been, or ever will be.
So why should it attempt to simply mimic BW? We know what BW-style "success" looks like--a decent-sized, highly dedicated fanbase from a single nation.
If SC2 is even one sixth as popular in the United States alone as BW is in Korea, it will have achieved as many fans as BW did, simply by virtue of the USA's larger population.
SC2 should not be aiming to be "the next BW". It should be aiming much higher than that--to be a successful e-sport worldwide. Success in Korea is one component of that, but it is far from the only one. If Korea never embraces SC2, but the rest of the world does, that in of itself will make SC2 bigger than BW has ever been.
This. You say that the two games can't be compared in watchability and interest. I agree. HDH both have 200000+ subscribers, and Jon747 has 25000. I wonder why?
I do not want BW to die. I like the BW proscene. I like watching starleague games. But the supposed reliance SC2 has for BW is based on assumption. Brood War could not succeed outside of Korea; but time is not frozen, and people are not statues. Barriers dissolve, and perceptions change, and sometimes, opportunities arise where there were none before.
I would also like to note that you are very much preaching to the choir. I would be very dubious of any claims that a greater proportion of the SC2 fanbase wants BW to die than BW supporters want SC2 to die. We want e-sports, period. It's just that SC2 looks more promising than BW ever was, and no amount of fear-mongering will change that.
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Look, I hear all the time that if sc2 fails in korea it will fail everywhere else, but i just don't see it. Just take a look at the recent events from ESL and MLG. Both events drew record numbers for esports outside of korea and the game has been released for just over a month. If SC2 is looking bright for us in the west, why should I care about its success in Korea?
The fact is, BW as an esport may be the best thing for korea, but it's not the best thing for the west. Games are becoming more casual and easier. That might be a bad thing for someone that can respect precision micro and perfect macro, but to the average viewer or player its a huge turn off.
Esports has always been about numbers and turnout. If theres noone watching then theres no sponsors, if theres no sponsors then theres no esports. Its as simple as that, and for a Esports organization in the west to get sponsors they have to be established and prove that it is worth investing in them.
BW outside of korea (and the same in korea could be said) has been slowly dieing. Spectation was a shadow if its former self in the past few years and thats because the people that are comming into the gaming scene now are not interested in playing a game with 1997 graphics with controls that do nothing but make the game less fun to play without a huge time investment. I know not a single person that can say that they 'enjoyed' BWs controls and mechanics more than modern RTSs.
Thats not a bad thing, for someone that has been playing the game for years, or someone that has the time to learn how to master the mechanincs of BW. But with the increasingly casual video game market a game like that would not survive. I can't name a single 'hardcore' style game of the late 90's developed in our time succeed.
Going back to viewers, It shows in my own experiences too. I've never met a single person who i've shown a starcraft game to for the first time that has said to me afterward that 'that looks like its fun'. However, i know atleast 20 people who i've shown a SC2 vod to and later went and bought the game, without having any previous RTS experience. And so far every single one has enjoyed it.
Hell, in the technology lab in my school we recently screened the ESL finals on a large projector screen and had nearly 30 people, male, female, a few teachers even, watching the game and enjoying it. I couldn't name a similar experience for BW since atleast 2004/2005, and it would have been on a much smaller scale.
The fact is, BW is an old game, and the fans that it has now are most likely the fans that it will have for the rest of its existence. There is no new market for BW.
Starcraft 2 on the otherhand is a new game with new opportunity and new chances. I'm sure that the people who are diehard BW fans and hate SC2 will be disappointed, but time moves on, the Esports scene has always been fickle and BWs time was ticking. BW should not be forgotten, and it shouldn't be ended before its time.
But as someone who has not and never will live in Korea, SC2 is finally bringing public interest into my lifelong passion, Esports, and anyone trying to stop that from happening is just being selfish.
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On September 04 2010 12:51 Zato-1 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2010 12:07 tree.hugger wrote:
Yet we as a community, both Sc2 and BW must reject these lines of thinking. The untimely death of the BW scene is a disaster not only for that specific industry, but for Sc2 and esports as well. If the BW scene dies this year, then Sc2 cannot and will not succeed.
(...)
In killing BW, however, Sc2 is a parasite killing its host. It is only through BW, that Sc2 can reasonably be expected to make it as an esport. If Gretech and Blizzard pull the outstretched hand of Kespa into the water with them, then there will be no one left to help Sc2 onto the boat.
(...)
In sum, I have one major point. Sc2 needs BW if it wants to succeed. To expect Sc2 to emerge, like a phoenix, from the ashes of a newly terminated Brood War is gross naiveté. I read the entirety of your post, and found no adequate justification for any of these statements. I can tell you put a lot of time and feeling into this, but instead of seeing logical steps and a well-supported core argument, I see logical jumps everywhere and statements that are as controversial as they are unfounded. Why would SC2 fare better with BW alive? Would the audience continue watching BW, migrate to SC2, or enjoy both? Why is only Korea relevant to the development of e-Sports? What about the storm clouds converging over the BW scene, with coaches resigning/being fired, teams attempting to disband and match-fixing scandals? Does this not merit to consider the possibility that the BW scene is rotting from within? What about the players and commentators who've made a smooth transition to the SC2 scene- more top-level foreigners than you can count, Tester, JulyZerg, Day[9], and the rise of new commentators in HD and Husky among others? What about the SC2 teams and training houses already setting up shop in Korea? Why should the SC2 fans care that the BW scene is hemorrhaging talent, if that talent is migrating straight to SC2? What about all the WC3 pros who are migrating to SC2, and from other strategy games as well- like fan-favorite TLO coming from having played Supreme Commander? Your post is made from a BW perspective. You don't seem to be in touch with the SC2 scene- or if you are, you don't reflect that in your post. All in all, I completely disagree with your conclusions; I see no reason why SC2 cannot succeed if BW dies.
All this stuff about wc3-pros going over to sc2 is kinda rubbish, there are virtually no pros in wc3. SC2 is not as spectator friendly as SC1, so you thinking that breaking down the sc1 will help sc2 flurish is completely incorrect. WC3 was a kind of follow up to broodwar just like sc2 and look at where that game is now competetively. The scene is completely dead, in total it hasn't even been as popular as mods made for it, like DOTA.
SC-2 will be great if Blizzard work hard at improving the game experience etc., but the problem is that they're too often too busy stuffing their pockets with money.
I thought the OP's post made more sense than your did and didn't draw his conclusions as loosely.
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On September 04 2010 12:51 Zato-1 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2010 12:07 tree.hugger wrote:
Yet we as a community, both Sc2 and BW must reject these lines of thinking. The untimely death of the BW scene is a disaster not only for that specific industry, but for Sc2 and esports as well. If the BW scene dies this year, then Sc2 cannot and will not succeed.
(...)
In killing BW, however, Sc2 is a parasite killing its host. It is only through BW, that Sc2 can reasonably be expected to make it as an esport. If Gretech and Blizzard pull the outstretched hand of Kespa into the water with them, then there will be no one left to help Sc2 onto the boat.
(...)
In sum, I have one major point. Sc2 needs BW if it wants to succeed. To expect Sc2 to emerge, like a phoenix, from the ashes of a newly terminated Brood War is gross naiveté. I read the entirety of your post, and found no adequate justification for any of these statements. I can tell you put a lot of time and feeling into this, but instead of seeing logical steps and a well-supported core argument, I see logical jumps everywhere and statements that are as controversial as they are unfounded. Why would SC2 fare better with BW alive? Would the audience continue watching BW, migrate to SC2, or enjoy both? Why is only Korea relevant to the development of e-Sports? What about the storm clouds converging over the BW scene, with coaches resigning/being fired, teams attempting to disband and match-fixing scandals? Does this not merit to consider the possibility that the BW scene is rotting from within? What about the players and commentators who've made a smooth transition to the SC2 scene- more top-level foreigners than you can count, Tester, JulyZerg, Day[9], and the rise of new commentators in HD and Husky among others? What about the SC2 teams and training houses already setting up shop in Korea? Why should the SC2 fans care that the BW scene is hemorrhaging talent, if that talent is migrating straight to SC2? What about all the WC3 pros who are migrating to SC2, and from other strategy games as well- like fan-favorite TLO coming from having played Supreme Commander? Your post is made from a BW perspective. You don't seem to be in touch with the SC2 scene- or if you are, you don't reflect that in your post. All in all, I completely disagree with your conclusions; I see no reason why SC2 cannot succeed if BW dies.
Also, developing e-sports in Korea is a possibility, because of their unique culture and history. Do you think progaming has as big a chance of succes in your homeland Chile as in Korea? You should look more into things.
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I really only gotten into esports since SC2. BW doesn't interest me at all, as dated it is. Even then, I hate to see it taken away from people who worked to build it where it is and all the passionate fans.
I mean I agree that SC2 already succeeded in the west in a level BW did not. Stable support from MLG and ESL will be huge. However MLG/ESL is a LONG ways away from the level of play proleagues achieved. The continued fighting has already seen GSL booted from OGN, this is all just not a good start. I kinda side with the op in the sense that GOM/Blizzard cannot succeed alone with SC2 in Korea, they need more support from within. It's awesome how successful it has been in the west, but the a truly professional league would still be best possible outcome.
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Do you guys not realize that the Koreans would rape all of you guys over and over and then you would all get bored of SC2 because prior to BW's downfall (which will probably happen), you all have a chance to become "good" or even a somewhat top level player. But when the Koreans do switch over, it will be the same thing again like in BW. The Koreans will become so good at the game that the skill gap is incomparable and soon enough rest of the world will slowly start to lose interest. I don't know, but that's how I see it. Why do all the top foreigners play SC2 now? Lol.
That would be hilarious to see. I wonder how the SC2'ers would react after that.
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New SC2 fans have no idea what "success" means in terms of e-sport. Only Broodwar has managed to gather non-video game nerds as a major part of the audience (it's acceptable to be a teenage girl and go see proleague or bring your kids to go see OSL). SC2 fans who have no experience with Broodwar have a misguided impression that having a bunch of big money tournaments and a live event with people on ustream equals an instant Esport hit. But every year large money prize pools are dished out for many mediocre games, sponsored mainly by video card and other gaming gear related companies, and then the game is forgotten a year or two later by the big donors. The success of an esport, as TreeHugger has correctly identified, is defined by sustainability.
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