2025 RSL Revival: Season 3

RO16 Group C & D Previews

by Wax

Protoss got off to a rolling start in the first half of the RO16, putting four representatives into the RSL playoffs. How will the other factions fare as we move on to the second half of group play?

Group C: herO, Gerald, SHIN, ByuN

Start time: Saturday, Nov 15 10:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)

Well, we probably have to lock in at least one more Protoss player in for the RO8, with herO looking like a heavy favorite to take first place in Group C. herO has bounced back strong after a disappointing RO8 exit at EWC (a shocking 0-3 sweep loss against Solar), establishing himself as the strongest weekly cup player in the months since. Most fans would probably rate Classic as the #1 Protoss above herO when you factor in their peak ability, but no one is better than herO at regularly mashing lesser opponents. Considering the make-up of this group, I expect herO to do exactly that.

Still, TL.net previews would be boring if we didn't play up the chances for the underdogs, and luckily, we can make some interesting cases for SHIN and ByuN. SHIN's fondness for all-ins and quirky strategies plays well with RSL's unorthodox map pool (a mix of old maps, TLMC #21 maps, and even some unique maps of its own), and he's always a threat to get a quick and easy win. Still, sometimes that unpredictability can become paradoxically predictable—a recent game where herO read and countered SHIN's proxy-Hatchery on 10000 Feet (a strategy he loves to use on maps with mineral walls) comes to mind.

As for ByuN, he's remained in his position just below the top tier in these past few months, even though he rarely scores an upset against the weekly cup gods. However, I do see a glimmer of hope for him in a potential match versus herO, as he's looked strong in late-game TvP. This is part of a larger TvP trend in general, but from what I've seen, Clem and ByuN have been the best at grinding Protosses down in battles of late-game attrition. I'm already favoring ByuN to get second, but first place isn't out of the question if he can survive herO's mid-game onslaught.

Unfortunately for Gerald, he's looking like the odd-man out in the group, trailing 15+ places down from the other players in the Aligulac rankings. I do appreciate the fact that he's a player who embraces his underdog status and readily all-ins when he's going up against stronger opponents, which might be good for a series win in this group.

Prediction: herO and ByuN advance

Group D: Reynor, sOs, Ryung, Maru

Start time: Sunday, Nov 16 10:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)

Group D is the most heavily polarized group of the RO16, with the two favorites looking to be nearly untouchable by the two underdogs. However, things might not be so simple when you look under the hood, thanks to the serially underperforming Maru.

Back in the summer, Maru's DreamHack Dallas 2025 championship run seemed to absolve him of all his poor performances in various online tournaments and the diminished version of GSL. Maru's motivation was clear: Give him some real money to play for, and the #1 Terran player of all time would show up. However, following a weak EWC showing where Maru was eliminated by Cure—a player who used to be his personal punching bag—and even more dreadful performances in various online events, it's time to start seriously worrying about whether we'll ever see the 'old' Maru again. Even a diminished Maru should easily get out of Group D, but there may be trouble brewing in the playoffs.

At least one top player in Group D is in reliable form, with Reynor looking sharp since his RO8 exit at EWC (a narrow 2-3 loss to Serral). He handed Serral a rare BO5+ loss at Maestros of the Game, and has looked very competitive against top-tier players across a variety of tournaments. Reynor isn't quite back to being co-equal with Serral and Clem as he was in the past, but he definitely falls into the "could win a BO5 against anyone" category of players. Reynor should be the obvious pick to top this group, unless we actually get to see the good version of Maru.

It's dispiriting to say, but sOs is basically a nostalgia act at this point. Besides being a fan-pleasing presence at FEL Cracov and HomeStory Cup 27, he's barely made any actual impact on competitive SC2 since his return. The most we can ask for is that he shows us some of his signature outside-the-box strategies—a series win is too much to hope for.

On the other hand, there's a tiny underdog case to be made for Ryung, especially if Maru continues to disappoint. Ryung has always had a puncher's chance against stronger players, and this last week has served as a great reminder as he beat both Classic and Cure in other online events. On top of that, Maru's aura of TvT invulnerability has been shattered in TvT, as he's given up losses to numerous opponents in 2025. With TvT being Ryung's best match-up, second place could be in reach if everything goes right.

Prediction: Reynor and Maru advance.