[M][N]Oil Futures Mafia

On April 23 2020 04:47 Chezinu wrote:
/in

Although it's not about Gallo Olive Oil.

On April 26 2020 00:20 Koshi wrote:
/in

On April 26 2020 05:25 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
For the deadline I want to do 19:00 GMT (+00:00) since I won't be any meetings and everyone currently in the game will probably be awake at that hour. Anyone unable to make that time and want me to move it?

On April 29 2020 04:37 Trfel wrote:
Hi all

In-game excuse, I'm going to be a bit lazy this game. Also more likely to be active late evening (PDT).

On April 29 2020 05:20 Vivax wrote:


Seems legit.

On April 29 2020 05:35 Vivax wrote:


Maybe Fefe, but not for much more other than that he went off lurking after appearing so eager to post.
Maybe a bit of stimulation will help.

##Vote: FF

On April 29 2020 06:59 Trfel wrote:
Fair enough, I didn't realize it was that many players. Thanks for explaining!You hosted last game, where I was lazy and town?

Come to think of it, GlowingBear, what do you think about Vivax's alignment?

On April 29 2020 05:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I think he has quite a legitimate thought process and probably town based on it.

On April 29 2020 06:39 Kurumi wrote:


Sorry I'm responding this late, got a call from a friend.

Well, I got all bad vibes from this and wanted another pair of eyes on this. Someone declaring at the start of the game that they're going to be lazy feels like a setup for a future cop-out for why they're not putting the effort in.

On April 29 2020 08:10 Kurumi wrote:


Fishing for how I'm committed to the game is not something I'm going to write up as "Town" in my book. Especially when someone declares that they're going to be less than committed. And as I've stated already in agreement to Vivax, me going for meta reads might not be the best course of action.

I am talking to you "like there is nothing wrong in your behaviour" because it is still early in the game and you might be going off one thing, like you've admitted. I also read your first post after "hi" as combative and wanted to know whether it is light-hearted or not, but you didn't acknowledge me asking about it. Besides, bringing more information into the thread is never wrong, especially when we establish connections people have to each other based on their reactions and interactions.




Oh come on Ray, what kind of reasoning is this? If anything, we should be concerned that someone that has shown less interest in the game changes their behaviour so fast. If that's the whole picture, that is.

On April 29 2020 10:29 Chezinu wrote:
One thing I don’t worry about is inflation right now.

On April 29 2020 10:40 Trfel wrote:
Hopefully, that's kinda on you though

Because your post didn't make sense to me.

Claiming you planned on doing a lot of meta reads doesn't make sense if you're unfamiliar with many/most of the players in the game, which I thought you were. Therefore, I was asking to try and learn more about what you meant by that. It makes more sense now that you said you were just faking confidence.

It just feels a bit weird for me for town to come into the thread right at the start of day 1 and say "I'm gonna meta read everyone like crazy," especially if they don't know everyone. But it makes more sense now that you've clarified it.

Alakaslam, do you really care what people think of you when you're mafia?

I'm slightly demotivated/a little tired of mafia, yes. I wouldn't have played if there was another person who signed up for the 12th slot. I was serious about being just as happy to not play as to play.

However, I was mostly joking, to see people's reactions. It clearly wouldn't make much sense for me to try and give an excuse at the start of the game when I easily could have done so a few hours before. With the one caveat being that I tend to be a lower page-count player these past few games/years, I try to be more efficient with my posts, and I think it's been working fairly well. I just know some people tend to view that as suspicious.

On April 30 2020 01:35 Jockmcplop wrote:


Nah I genuinely thought he was mafia after his one post and shockeyy saying that post made him mafia. I was convinced. but alas! Now I have seen the light.

##unvote: koshi

On April 29 2020 06:39 Kurumi wrote:


Sorry I'm responding this late, got a call from a friend.

Well, I got all bad vibes from this and wanted another pair of eyes on this. Someone declaring at the start of the game that they're going to be lazy feels like a setup for a future cop-out for why they're not putting the effort in.

On April 29 2020 09:45 Alakaslam wrote:

Meh, NAI but also unnecessary. Just kinda bad. I cant always be here, I don’t have to go on and on about my daily teaching schedule or coronavirus actually making me busier and whatnot. I just show up when I can. Because I’m town, and therefore dont give a shit what people think.

On April 29 2020 14:01 Trfel wrote:
@Alakaslam and GlowingBear, thanks for answering my questions.

---

Anyway, I find Kurumi to be the most interesting person in the thread at the moment.Super non-committal, zero followup. Saying it's "not bad" means he thinks there is something to it, but he didn't say another word on the subject in any of his posts. Yes, I know, Fecalfeast didn't post in that time so there was nothing new to discuss, but I still think that if Kurumi actually found Fecalfeast suspicious/interesting he would have mentioned it to others. Like later that same post:Why is he more interested in me making an excuse than the scumread he just said was decent? But that's what he chose to ask raynpelikoneet about.

And he never seemed to stop and question raynpelikoneet's alignment, or even find raynpelikoneet's response interesting. This I really don't get. Raynpelikoneet's play of hard defending someone early in the game for weak reasons (especially in Kurumi's view, for the exact same reason he is suspicious) should be seen as a terrible play. I'd think that would be at least worth mentioning. But all Kurumi cares about is a player who made an excuse, not the alignment of the person he's interacting with.

Doesn't feel right to me. Thoughts?

On April 29 2020 15:17 Alakaslam wrote:
Stuff getting really strangely simple. Like straight up people make excuse = they is scum.

If Vivax is right.

But it is funny, Trfel being more active than anyone else post excuse has me feeling townie on him even though it literally points scummier than before. Like, my head and my gut disagree

On April 29 2020 15:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
But they are not. I also think FF and Slam are town but i am not that sure about it.

On April 29 2020 23:21 Jockmcplop wrote:
Hi everyone here's a catch up post:

+ Show Spoiler +

I remember the other game you are talking about and reading through the thread I did get flashbacks. I don't really get how you go from noticing the similarities to rayn having motivations other than scumhunting.

Like you think rayn saw that trfel as lynchbait worked in the last game for town so he's leveraging the same idea as mafia and hoping that no-one will notice, with probably half the people playing in both games?

I can't really see it.

Its simpler just to think that trfel as lynchbait worked last time, kurumi wasn't here last time, rayn is thinking it might work again and get us a day 1 hit.

The one thing I do agree with here is it looks like rayn is assuming you are town. I guess I can understand that based on meta (maaaaaaayyyyyybe), and he did say he townread you so its probably just a read more than an assumption.

As for trfel's opening, stuff like that isn't really worth discussing unless he disappears at times that are overly convenient for mafia.

+ Show Spoiler +
@Glowingbear why is this such a bad post to you? I mean I don't agree with it really or see how it will have the intended effect but it doesn't seem so bad from an AI perspective

@Kurumi:

+ Show Spoiler +

Would you say that trfel asking the questions he asked brought more information into the thread?

I mean, I now know who you have played with before and am better able to judge the different way you might interact with me compared to say rayn... which is useful.

On April 30 2020 10:38 Alakaslam wrote:
GB those posts following each other remind me of your condition *X)

On April 30 2020 00:03 Kurumi wrote:
Slam, everyone, please don't spam post, it really doesn't help.

I decided to make a list for summary's sake and that we hopefully don't miss out something later.

No contribution so far:

Grackaroni (posted, but it is literally an introduction post and a youtube-link post)
Fecalfeast (admitted to not reading the thread)
Koshi (no posts at all)
Jockmcplop (no posts at all)
Chezinu (but talking Chezinu and contributing is a whole can of worms)


Low-effort/medium activity

Shockeyy (claims town and wanting to lead it, pings me through quoting Vivax, scumreads Alakaslam, notes that Trfel has played games back-to-back and understands their desire to be lazy)
Alakaslam (notes the cop-outs, pings me, claimed town, seemingly agrees with me, Vivax, torn about Trfel anyway)
GlowingBear (pings Vivax, then votes them without providing more reasoning, interacts with Trfel on basis of past games, although seemingly agrees with me, is interested in how Trfel is going to play)

Funnily enough, if someone were to put a gun to my head right now, I'd say all three are Town. That only means I at this moment lean Town more on them than Scum and it's flimsy enough to flip fast. If I were to pick the strongest town feel out of these three, it would be Slam because I liked him noticing the cop-outs and well, I like that he seems to agree with me

Active

Vivax (pinged me, wanted to interact with people and did, pressured Fecalfeast through a vote on good reasoning after I asked for who I should be looking into, most importantly, came to the exact same conclusions I have right now.)
Kurumi

Trfel
raynpelikoneet

I have no idea with which one of these two I should start. There's an obvious triangle between them and me - with them defending each-other and pushing me, but pushing me so lightly that they don't even commit to a vote. And they do all this for me JUST pinging Trfel. Never called Trfel scum. Never voted Trfel. That's a misrepresentation. But the moment I mention Trfel to rayn, he believes that Trfel has shown "effort" (they did not, as I outlined in a post of mine). After this, rayn declares I should be suspicious of him because of his defense of Trfel - to which I have replied already as well. I was. I know that rayn tunnel-visions a lot, but the play he's shown this game is outright bogus to me. Trfel says one thing and then does the opposite. Which is, by definition, lying. You might have a good guess how I feel about liars. Rayn goes on saying that I'm illogically pushing Trfel for this, as if nothing Trfel would've done would change my attitude towards them. So here's what I can give on this front: if Trfel were truthful to their game-opening declaration, they'd be suspicious to me. BUT they would not be read as scum to me simply because of lack of information. Given how all this turned out, I believe Trfel to be scum. They go as far as literally reiterating rayn's previous point he made to me about how I should be suspicious of rayn and me not being suspicious of rayn is scummy. They also misrepresent me as saying "I'm gonna meta read everyone like crazy" which is wildly untrue. I expressed DOUBTS whether I can do that. Not that I can and will.

And you know what's the best thing ever in Trfel's posting?



Amazing backpedal. So your plan from the start of the game was claim to be lazy and then call the first person to call you out scum? Because "mostly joking"? So not only you've lied about "being lazy" this game through your gameplay after I put some heat on you, you also admit it outright? Cool.

So, the only reason I'm voting Trfel over raynpelikoneet really is that I think Trfel has a role. I'd rather have a scum-with-role dead than a vanilla scum dead. Easy? Easy.

##vote Trfel

+ Show Spoiler [unofficial votecount] +

On April 30 2020 10:49 Alakaslam wrote:

This is golden GB and, you literally reference your condition. The condition of your health. Like you taking it for the team right now, U STRONK HOMBOII LIKE SLAVIC MAN

On April 30 2020 10:45 Trfel wrote:
Mostly finished filter diving. Some notable points:

For maybe the first time ever, I actually like Koshi. Surprised, haha.

Why does everyone think Jockmcplop's play was so suspicious? To me it was obviously a joke/pressure vote. I don't understand why it's so bad and blatantly a scummy mistake.

People already pointed out Alakaslam's wishy-washy attitude, it makes me suspicious but it also is the thing that makes me hesitate to scumread him (I know, the irony here is incredible). I want to read a previous Alakaslam game or two later tonight for comparison. Alakaslam is also a ton more serious than I am used to, which if I remember correctly is his tendency when he is mafia. So I am highly suspicious of him (admittedly, mostly due to meta), but I want to double check the meta later.

Fecalfeast just seems to follow thread sentiment and not contribute much. Feels like he is just existing. I find him hard to read, but that all his reads follow thread sentiment is rather interesting.

Really don't know what to make of Kurumi. Going to try to reread his filter.

On April 29 2020 15:56 Vivax wrote:


slam i can get behind, not ff

why ff

On April 30 2020 00:18 ShoCkeyy wrote:
So far I have Slam, Koshi, and Kurumi on my possibly mafia list.

On April 30 2020 00:27 Jockmcplop wrote:



Holy wall of text Batman.

You also seem overdefensive in this post (for someone who doesn't have any votes on them.)



Are you sure trfel was lying and didn't just get into the game more than he expected to?

On April 30 2020 00:32 ShoCkeyy wrote:


That entrance is sounds totally like Koshi mafia entrance.

On April 30 2020 10:51 Alakaslam wrote:

Only issue is there is a way. Scum can be badass

But yeah Kurumi top town for me as well.

On April 30 2020 11:05 Fecalfeast wrote:

no

On April 30 2020 03:48 Koshi wrote:

The difference between the conviction in the posts from kurumi/fefe and here gb is why I think the first 2 arz town and gb is mafia.

I also had the wtf how scummy is the jock fella with his vote and backtrack on me. But I also had a healthy amount of doubt and confusion.

I think fefe and kurumi both showed some conservatism in their posts.


GB did not. GB looked like a wolf jumping on a poor misguided sheep.

##Vote GB

On April 30 2020 03:53 Koshi wrote:
Anyway. Seems like Vivax and rayn think slam is town. GB not mentioned a lot.

I shall keep an eye on these 2 then. GB without doubt most mafia guy in the thread so far.

No waves
Wolftype attack on obvious mafiaish post made by thinking about the game townie.

On April 30 2020 11:16 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I only voted Koshi to put more pressure on him after that opening, especially if it was going to be two votes already. I thought it would of been obvious. I already explained my reasoning why I thought it was a Koshi mafia opening.

On April 30 2020 23:27 Koshi wrote:

The jock scumread is pathetic. GB said that Jock said his vote was serieus and then backtracked that his vote was a joke.

That is either:
Misreading as mafia because you are not paying attention.
Misrepresenting as mafia.
Misreading so gravely as town that it is punishable by lynch.

On April 30 2020 23:31 Koshi wrote:
So why are you saying GB has a slam scumread????

On April 30 2020 23:38 Koshi wrote:

Who the fuck cares what Jock is to me.

This is you trying to discredit me by me having to proof Jock is town.

BUT JOKE IS ON YOU. I dont have to proof shit.

On April 30 2020 23:40 Koshi wrote:

PROOF IT

On April 30 2020 23:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Fine i am going to side with Koshi on this, at least some townies are voting for the same shit.
##unvote jockmcplop
##vote glowingbear

On April 30 2020 21:38 Vivax wrote:
FF laughing at his own mistakes feels townie.
Well played if scum. Revisiting at a later day.

GB not seeing it and calling him scum for shitposting is kinda bad. Makes me feel less good about my Jock vote together with rayn being too comfy with it as well.

Dunno, maybe I should just yolo Shockeyy.

On April 30 2020 23:45 Koshi wrote:
You dont have Slam as a scumread. Merely mentioned him being wishy washy. That is just an observation. Nothing more at all.

Your jock scumread was teiggered by jock doing something super dumb which looked mafia. So you went for the safe jump on jock without thinking twice.

You are not trying to solve this game enough to call you town or to leave you alive.

You make no waves at all. You voted Vivax and it had 0.0000% impact. No explanation no nothing.

You call rayn town and it had 0.000% impact on the game. No explanation no nothing.

Early game you claim to have the same suspicion of tfrel as kurumi, hence the townread, yet when you talk to Tfrel there is absolutely nothing there to support that claim. You backed off from the conversation

On April 30 2020 23:56 Vivax wrote:
I'd prefer if GB just gave an update regarding slam instead of me doing the legwork for him.



And explain why he scumread me for this maybe. I didn't pay too much attention to it earlier but I'm kinda curious now.

On May 01 2020 00:00 Vivax wrote:
Holy fuck Koshi was right.

##Unvote
##Vote GB

On May 01 2020 00:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:
See still no reads on me, Trfel and Koshi who are aside Vivax the towniest people in the game.

On May 01 2020 00:03 Vivax wrote:
GB what made you extract out of the conversation here with very specific points to discuss to go and post a half-assed summary of stale reads?

On May 01 2020 00:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:
There is simply zero chance Koshi is mafia in this game so there is that. Move on.

On May 01 2020 00:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Hey GB i am not blue you can call me mafia now.

On May 01 2020 00:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Hey GB i am sorry i am afraid now i am actually blue so you cant call me mafia.

On May 01 2020 00:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:

Because i say so.

On May 01 2020 00:15 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Because he simply cannot care to put this much effort into a mafia game as mafia.

On May 01 2020 00:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:
He is saying stuff that makes sense unlike some other people.

On May 01 2020 00:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:
He is saying stuff that makes sense unlike some other people.

On May 01 2020 00:35 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I think Jock is mafia and Slam probably town just because there is no room for him to be mafia.

On May 01 2020 01:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:

Play the game please. You're gonna fight your lynch if you are town and you're gonna fight your lynch if you're mafia. Unless you want us to just kill you which we will do regardless of your affiliation if you act like this.

Why would you want to build a case on me if you have two bigger scumreads from which at least one has a really decent chance of being lynched?

On May 01 2020 02:07 Trfel wrote:
GlowingBear, my main question to you concerns your townread on Kurumi.

Yes, Kurumi's post was pretty and showed effort. But it was largely a summary of the thread, and only the parts on myself and raynpelikoneet showed any amount of thought whatsoever (not even going to discuss it, but you know my thoughts on that).

Why can't scum put in effort? Especially when it doesn't involve thinking or figuring out who is mafia?

On May 01 2020 02:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:

well okay, everything here is pretty much not right. I am not blue fingers crossed now you can actually call me mafia. Do your best if that's what you want to do.

On May 01 2020 02:14 raynpelikoneet wrote:

I will let you do your thing after this one, but i have to do this:
Why does that make Kurumi town (aside from him "mindmelding with you" which is really stupid tbh), and why doesn't that make let's say me and Trfel town? Because i can easily apply your narrative to Trfel (and myself but if you want to see myself biased towards me then let's only talk about Trfel).

On May 01 2020 02:18 Trfel wrote:
I'd ask you to reread the post/Kurumi's filter except you said you're at work and can't, I'll try to respect that.

I guess I can agree that his thoughts are clear, and original, and kept discussion going. I would also say they have logical flaws and don't make sense though.

What exactly did you and him "mindmeld" about? Just my opening? Because I'd consider agreeing about that fairly insignificant.

On May 01 2020 02:17 raynpelikoneet wrote:

he says:
jock is mafia
slam is mafia
rayn can be town or mafia
trfel could be town or mafia
well whatever, everything else is someone can be town or mafia aside from Kurumi.

into later "jock and KOSHI are mafia but i am gonna make a case on rayn".

what's GOOD in that?

On May 01 2020 03:44 Kurumi wrote:


I waited until my lynch was more or less assured, I asked for a replacement 11 and half hours ago because I couldn't muster any interest to play this game. So to make sure you don't make me suffer another fucking cycle I decided to come and say hi. You mad?

On May 01 2020 03:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:

Me too but what? I dont think i am gonna vote for GB over him and Jock.

On May 01 2020 03:49 Kurumi wrote:

That's literally why I'm getting lynched. You bunch basically foregone any scumreading and consolidating and decided that going for roflmaowagons in the last hour or two is the towniest game you can play.

On May 01 2020 03:53 Kurumi wrote:

Yeah, I ask those questions myself every time people fuxking quintuple post with one liners in span of 10 minutes.

On May 01 2020 04:29 ShoCkeyy wrote:
GB reads now.

On May 01 2020 11:20 Trfel wrote:
@GlowingBear, why is Jockmcplop mafia?

I don't get why the Koshi vote and unvote makes him mafia. I don't get why anything else makes him mafia either. Please explain?

On May 01 2020 11:29 Trfel wrote:
Also, @GlowingBear, why was this post the best post in the thread to you? I get that it was a lot of effort and made Kurumi look town to you, but I don't see your conclusions matching Kurumi's conclusions in this post. Calling it the "best post in the thread" seems like quite the stretch.

On May 01 2020 08:03 Vivax wrote:


GB, Shockeyy is up close.

I'd like Shockeyy to continue his inquiry into Slam though.
I didn't finish looking at EoD from a lynch derailing perspective and wagon analysis, but rayn's switch looks bad to me. I thought he was as confident as me on GB.

On May 01 2020 12:10 Trfel wrote:
For the record, Jockmcplop was joking in both of his posts. Thanks for explaining though.

Care to summarize why raynpelikoneet is mafia to you? I skimmed your filter for it again and I don't believe you ever clearly laid it out. No rush, if you want to play Diplomacy first I'll be here a few hours.

On May 01 2020 12:14 Trfel wrote:
I'm sorry, care to explain why? I'm not seeing it, what makes it so obvious?

On May 01 2020 07:02 Vivax wrote:


This is actually a good question.

On May 01 2020 06:40 Fecalfeast wrote:
If there's a vig i would be super ok with a shot within gb shockey and chez

On May 01 2020 06:31 Vivax wrote:


I still don't understand how his entrance made him mafia in your eyes and nobody else does either, I think. That's because you dodged the question by saying it was a vote of pressure.

Rayn you will have to explain to me why you didn't keep your vote on GB.

On May 01 2020 12:33 Trfel wrote:
Come to think of it, why didn't you vote to save yourself? I guess it doesn't make you mafia since Kurumi flipped town but it seems so weird to not vote to save yourself, even if the alternative is your top townread. I've done that before. Like to me it almost only makes sense as mafia so you could say "look, I didn't vote to save myself!" because there's no reason as town not to vote to save yourself?

Can you explain why your reads were flopping around so much towards the deadline? You were first convinced on Jockmcplop and Alakaslam being mafia, then kinda thinking raynpelikoneet might be mafia. Then writing a half-case on raynpelikoneet, then deciding that mafia was Koshi and Jockmcplop and raynpelikoneet or Alakaslam. Seems like a few unexplained leaps.

On May 01 2020 12:43 Trfel wrote:
Okay, thanks again. I'm slightly busy now but I will take a closer look at what you have posted later tonight. Feel better soon.

On May 01 2020 13:14 ShoCkeyy wrote:
GB what are your thoughts on me?

On May 01 2020 13:48 Trfel wrote:
To clarify the bolded red section, raynpelikoneet did vote for Jockmcplop over the vote/unvote thing on Koshi. The same reason you were scumreading Jockmcplop.

I'm sorry, maybe I'm just being blind here but I'm not really seeing it. I had a longer post written, I can discuss it further if you want, but the short of it is to me it felt like raynpelikoneet cared about who got lynched while if he was mafia, he could have justified parking his vote a lot of places (assuming you are town, since this is your argument, you being one of them). I'm far from 100% on raynpelikoneet being town, I just don't really see the reasons to scumread him that you've shared.

The rest of what GlowingBear has posted makes a lot more sense to me. I'll likely be around for a while if anyone wants to talk about anything, if I get bored though I may fall asleep.

On May 01 2020 14:11 Trfel wrote:
If I stop focusing on GlowingBear's alignment and look at others, I see Koshi being mafia a lot more easily than I see raynpelikoneet being mafia. But I'm listening to what people say about raynpelikoneet, it would be dumb to ignore.

Suspicious of Koshi because:
Says he likes ShoCkeyy possibly even less than GlowingBear, says he could move from GlowingBear to ShoCkeyy at the deadline, then doesn't do so.
Says he votes for the scummiest low-activity poster while voting GlowingBear instead of ShoCkeyy (after GlowingBear's string of update posts).
Mild "don't lynch Kurumi" post. Feels so mild-mannered for Koshi, who is usually such an aggressive poster. He doesn't seem to care much about who gets lynched between GlowingBear, his super scumread, and Kurumi, his townread.
Tells raynpelikoneet to keep voting for Kurumi while sticking on GlowingBear himself
Calls for vigilante shot on Chezinu instead of ShoCkeyy, who has been his secondary target previously

Thoughts?

On May 01 2020 17:54 Vivax wrote:


I think he has too much fight in him to be mafia. Mafia Koshi is a kind butterfly that occasionally backstabs you. More of a tonish read.

Chez shot is good. Though I could be swayed if he looked like he had more fun while shitposting.



While I was fighting with Koshi over your alignment you were in the thread and instead of engaging you went and made an apologetic sounding summarish post.

If it wasn't already obvious that it is why I scumread you, then I can't help you.

On May 01 2020 20:12 Jockmcplop wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Here's how I see the 'mindmeld' thing.
Its entirely meta based, or should be, from a town perspective.
There's one guy on MU who reliably mindmelds with me on day 1 more than once if we're both town. Like every single game. If it happens, I know to townread him.

Townreading someone off a mindmeld just because they said what you are thinking is absolutely terrible imo. If that's how you see the game, mafia just needs to make educated guesses at how you are seeing the game and get easy townreads.

I do like how GB reevaluated his read on me though, it would have been super easy for him to keep pushing a SR on me, especially because I still hadn't posted at that point, so even though i see his early townread on kurumi as a bit suspicious, he's probably a town lean for me.

also @glowingbear: + Show Spoiler +

------------

About shockeyy:


At first I really liked Fefe pushing that post of shockeyy's. I was almost scumreading shockeyy based on him simply not explaining the post at all, and it not really making sense from most points of view that I could summon up.
However, I think that's a really superficial reading and yes I'm sussing Fefe because of that.
That post does make sense if you consider that shockeyy is scumreading the people who started both wagons (koshi and slam) before he made this post, and also sussing other people who are on the wagons. I think its consistent with his previous reads that he would see the two wagons as containing two obvious scum. His vote was on koshi and he SRs slam who started a wagon on him. If you look at shockeyy's other reads it also makes sense to think that if one of koshi/slam is not scum, then someone else on the wagons would be.

TL:DR Shockeyy's 'two scum on these wagons' post makes perfect sense in the context of his other reads. I think I actually townread shockeyy for this.

Quotes to support:

+ Show Spoiler +
First he suspects Fefe

+ Show Spoiler +

He already scumreads koshi and slam

+ Show Spoiler +
Then he makes this post. He suspects that slam and koshi are partners. However, he also suspects Fefe. From this its easy to see why he thinks that there's two scum on these wagons, unless you haven't looked in his ISO or read his posts properly.

On May 01 2020 20:31 Jockmcplop wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

If this is suggesting koshi/shockeyy mafia I don't think so. Shockeyy's hard scumread on koshi is too much for early bussing imo.

Otherwise I think the best part of this case is here:+ Show Spoiler +

Its really hard to parse town motivation from these two posts. It looks like there's a contradiction, like don't townread kurumi for that post he made but we shouldn't lynch him but don't stop voting him based on that post.
If you didn't want kurumi lynched, your objective should be to stop town from lynching him. why would you tell rayn to ignore that post and suggest that kurumi might be mafia for posting it?

On May 01 2020 23:57 Vivax wrote:


Actually I just realized you didn't vote Kurumi to save yourself. That makes you more likely to be town. Dumb town, but town.
Makes slams EoD vote juggling more likely to be from scum since that'd mean both wagons were town.

On May 02 2020 00:06 Jockmcplop wrote:


I'm null on him at the moment. Basically I disagree with most of what he has written but for me and vivax that happens in most games so NAI. I'm open to him being scum, but for now I've put him in the 'read later when more information is available' pile. Grack and chez too.

The read I'm most struggling with at the moment is rayn. He isn't definitely town yet at all.

None of these are a priority for a day 2 lynch for me though.

I'm in a koshi/Fefe/slam world. Do you have any thoughts on that or anything else i've posted today?

On May 02 2020 00:24 Vivax wrote:




Basically it looked like you felt pressured by Koshi for having little reads and while we were in the thread debating your alignment you ran off to scramble a few together.
In that context, it didn't feel natural.

On May 02 2020 05:59 ShoCkeyy wrote:
There's only two possible scenarios with the information above, either they're trying to frame GB or GB is mafia.

On May 02 2020 11:13 Grackaroni wrote:

I don't really care about going after Rayn as mafia. Maybe not advisable to poke Rayn if I'm not willing to put in the effort to play though.

On May 03 2020 00:09 Jockmcplop wrote:


So these are the people that are implicated/framed by the Fefe kill.

Here's how I was on them before Fefe's kill:

town
shockeyy

town lean
GB

null:
chez
grack

scum
slam

I think i'm more likely to townlean grack now just because of his attitude and tone.

GB stays where he is. I'm really not convinced of trfel's case on him at all. In fact I flat out disagree with it.

Which leaves chez and slam in the null/scum sections. This makes me uncomfortable, they aren't two players who I want to build a view of the game on assuming their alignment, as they are both very difficult to read.

I think shockeyy is the most important player right now. I'm gonna go and reread all the reasons people have for scumreading him. I already said why i disagree with Fefe's reasons for scumreading shockeyy and his flip doesn't change my reasoning there at all.

I still have a strong feeling that koshi and shockeyy are opposite alignments.

On May 03 2020 14:01 Trfel wrote:
Well, I'll likely be around for a bit if anyone wants to talk. GlowingBear, especially you.

@GlowingBear, why doesn't ShoCkeyy's post makes sense? I can understand where he is coming from, at least, even if I don't necessarily agree.

On May 03 2020 14:07 Trfel wrote:
I'll leave that for ShoCkeyy to answer, I guesssssssss I can kinda see where you're coming from, even if I can see ShoCkeyy's perspective more easily.

Interested to hear your thoughts when you are finished catching up.

On May 03 2020 14:12 Trfel wrote:
It's slightly explained in his filter but not a ton.

Who do you think is mafia currently? I know ShoCkeyy, still raynpelikoneet and Koshi? What about Alakaslam and the rest?

On May 03 2020 14:40 ShoCkeyy wrote:
GB what are you smoking, I was saying that FF talked about you quite a bit, and with that early vote on you can make it look like one or the other.

On May 03 2020 14:41 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I didn’t do some conspiracy and just throw it out. I voted with my scum read, how is that throwing it out?

On May 02 2020 05:59 ShoCkeyy wrote:
There's only two possible scenarios with the information above, either they're trying to frame GB or GB is mafia.

On May 03 2020 15:03 ShoCkeyy wrote:
They tried to frame you.

On May 03 2020 19:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I still think the following people are town.
Vivax, Trfel, Koshi. I mean like i am just going to assume they are town.

The next important thing is the votecount and GB's alignment. If GB is town, mafia didn't care about the lynch. If GB is mafia, mafia still didn't care about the lynch. I kind of agree with Vivax that GB not voting for the counter wagon -- while incredibly stupid, most likely makes him town. The only person from the "not taking a stance on lynch" by the eod was Slam who was swapping his votes after Kurumi started posting. I don't think that looks townie and i think Slam is the only person aside from the people who were on Kurumi and GB can actually be mafia.

I don't think either of Shockeyy and Grackaroni were reading either of Kurumi/GB mafia. I actually think Shockeyy tried to make people switch to Slam, i think that's minor town points for him. I kind of thought Grack has to be mafia based on him not wanting to do anything about the lynch, especially when his biggest scumread is voting for Kurumi the most obvious decision to make is to try make people vote for either Slam, or join the opposing wagon. However, i have zero understanding of why Grack continued like he did after D1. Basically if Grack is mafia, he built up a scumread on me all game jsut to throw it into the trash for whatever reason come D2??? I don't think that makes any sense at all from mafia perspective.

So GB goes to probably town pile and Grack goes to town pile, Shockeyy goes to possibly town pile and Slam is like ????? maybe scum?

The thing to note is that i still think there is a possibility of GB being mafia, just because FF suspected him, and while he writes a lot of posts pretty much everything he votes for is "because he didn't post in X amount of time" and i think that's super weak. Wasn't it for the eod i would definitely think GB is mafia and i don't think it's completely out of the possible universes that he is in fact mafia. Hell it's definitely in his range of mafia plays to even be mafia with Jock, or Slam.

Anyways the most likely answer based on the above there is, is that:
One of GB/Jock is mafia (my preference is Jock)
One of Slam/Shockeyy is mafia (prefer Slam)
Chezinu is mafia.

The problem i have with Slam is his read change with me and Shockeyy. I switched my vote from Jock to GB to Shockeyy to Kurumi. Sure Slam can think that somehow makes me mafia (it shouldn't), but for that he has some weird association that this ALSO makes Shockeyy town. I dont think he should ever have that association based on what i did. I think this is more likely trying to get Shockeyy back off from him, based on that at the point this happened there were two votes on him (aka possibility of him being lynched -- especially if Shockeyy and Grack are town as i assume if Slam is mafia). Furthermore if this was his genuine thought process i don't have a slightest clue why he changes his vote to vote WITH his biggest scumread rayn???? I know he voted GB in the end but at that point it probably didn't matter anymore and he shouldn't have voted for Kurumi in the first place at all if what he said before that was genuine.

I know some people are saying Jock is re-evaluating the game after the FF flip but i don't really see it. I honestly first thouhg Jock is town because why would he kill FF, his scumread (unless GB is mafia too -- but right now i don't expect that to be true). Just look at Jock's re-evaluation:
- First he says he needs to re-evaluate things because FF his scumread died
- He never evaluates GB, which is the first thing he should do
- The he says he need to reread Shockeyy because "a lot of alignments depend on Shockeyys" (i dont even understand why he thinks that because he never explains anything about it)
- But he doesn't really reread Shockeyy on any level, he just comes back with some random posts and says that Shockeyy is town because ??? and Koshi and Shockeyy are opposing alignments and because of a BAD post Shockeyy made on Koshi that could make him think Shockeyy actually could be mafia but without no investigation on that ever in the game he just ends up on Shockeyy being town again and Koshi being mafia.
- Basically he never re-evaluated anything and just ended up with whatever he had before the night kill. That's literally ALL his posts during D2 so basically he hasn't done anything lol...

Chezinu kind of always has to be mafia unless the mafia team is exactly Jock, Gb and Slam. But i don't think that's the most likely answer anyways. Noone is willing to even CONSIDER Chezinu as mafia aside from Vivax and Trfel (who are basically town anyways), so yeah.... I don't think not considering Chezinu mafia as mafia, if Chezinu is not, is a good play for mafia because he is probably almost a free lynch. So i think Chezinu has to be mafia.

##vote Chezinu

On May 04 2020 01:44 ShoCkeyy wrote:


He voted for you and was scum reading you in the beginning of the game. If some one read his posts, then they’d notice that FF was taken out N1 cause mafia was upset FF didn’t help take you out first and instead took Kurumi out, lines up with how upset Koshi got when Kurumi died instead of you GB.

Literally Koshi was the first person to vote for you, then FF, then towards the end of the day he switched Kurumi and died N1. If anything FF death was a mixture of things but I mainly think it was to frame us, and cause mafia was mad they didn’t get their GB kill cause of FF.

On May 04 2020 02:00 ShoCkeyy wrote:


I posted this earlier, but it deals with you being a strong town player, Koshi jumping on any easy trains he can form, and atm Trfel is still null. It seems like he’ll sheep Rayn based on D1 votes and discussions.

On May 04 2020 02:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:

I didnt say that, slam did. Ask him.

Vote you when? Last game he let ho of his scumread to vote NOT his scumread BUT his mafia partner under no pressure and he got lynched for it. I dont know why Jock does what he does when he is mafia and i dont really care even...

On May 03 2020 20:50 Koshi wrote:

All this has nothing to do with scumhunting but is all association and anthics based. Just read this....

Tje bolded is something ge keeps repeating and the craziest reasons seem to be ok to add to his narritive.

Why arent we both mafia anymore? Like slam and I easily could still be mafia together like he claimed before.

And maybe we can stilm both be mafia in his eyes but come on.... It's all so little thought through.

And the other reads in this post is just things happening. Nothing really convincinh why somebody is scum or not. It doesnt show this guy is critically thinking/searching for mafia.

On May 04 2020 02:15 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Btw idk if this matters, but I’m a mason. My brother stopped talking to me D1. So I don’t know who it is. Oh well.

On May 03 2020 23:17 Trfel wrote:
No, I don't want to lynch Koshi. Of the three people currently at two votes I would most want to lynch Jockmcplop I think. I should probably read his filter again.

And ShoCkeyy's too, for that matter. But I don't really want to vote with GlowingBear But maybe I should accept the possibility that I am wrong.

Bleh, confusing game hurts my head

On May 04 2020 02:43 Vivax wrote:
It feels kinda odd to lynch into Jock/Shockeyy again after they were both mafia in my last game. Gambler's fallacy and all, but seriously. What are the odds of them rolling both mafia together twice in a row :|

Shockeyy, Grack is bringing up some strong points, especially the overconfidence. You just seem to be stuck in your story and don't want to look who could be scum besides Koshi imo.

If you're town and telling the truth though, the best you can do is literally just to do your best to guess who the fuck the other mason was, because if he doesn't come out now he's almost guaranteed to be mafia.

I think it's worth bringing Slam and Chez to the table too. Both were full time doing claim shenannies and I wouldn't put it past them to be just that bold as scum.

On May 04 2020 02:53 Trfel wrote:
I don't know I've periodically been falling asleep while reading Jockmcplop's filter and ShoCkeyy's filter and keeping up with the thread (primarily Grackaroni's posts).

When I look at ShoCkeyy's play this game vs his play last game (as mafia), I've actually felt like they are different. This game I see ShoCkeyy coming up with new ideas and sticking with them, and that makes me think he may be town. I didn't read his meta the same way Grackaroni did, I think we are looking at different aspects of ShoCkeyy's play. I don't know what that means.

On May 04 2020 03:04 Trfel wrote:
Which one in particular? Sorry, you'll have to point me to what you are referring to. For the record the middle line of that paragraph wasn't meta but it doesn't really matter.

@Koshi, sorry I may very well change my vote. I will probably agonize about it until the deadline. Even though K am busy between now and then.

On May 04 2020 03:06 Vivax wrote:
I think we always kill Shockeyy here with the mason claim.

If he lied, it's one scum down.
If he told the truth and chez doesn't confirm the claim before the flip, we lynch chez.

Guaranteed to have one mafia, no?

##Unvote
##Vote Shockeyy

On May 04 2020 03:15 Vivax wrote:


Because Shockeyy siad he thinks it's Chez?
Need to take it at face value if he doesn't give more info.

On May 04 2020 03:16 Trfel wrote:
I don't really want to put words in ShoCkeyy's mouth, but it's understandable to me that mafia could use a night kill to try and implicate someone and wait for town to lead that wagon. I've seen it happen before (or even not happen if town didn't go that way). Honestly if mafia tries to use the night kill to implicate someone, I think that's the smart way to do it. You don't risk yourself if town doesn't bite.

On May 04 2020 03:22 Trfel wrote:
Okay, I'm not confident enough in my own read, might as well sheep everyone else/consolidate.

##unvote
##vote ShoCkeyy

On May 04 2020 03:38 GlowingBear wrote:


Cool

Now we just lynch Trfel day3

On May 04 2020 03:32 ShoCkeyy wrote:
GB is literally doing what he claimed Koshi was doing about taking his words and turning them into something else. Half the questions GB asked me was answered earlier in the thread. So the story is the same.

On May 04 2020 03:47 ShoCkeyy wrote:
It does, you just chose to ignore that it makes sense.

On May 04 2020 03:51 Alakaslam wrote:

Well fuck I am sorry but can we get a more recent count? I have no clue what is going on because yesterday I was having mad mutual masturbation all day and all night because she’s worried about sex during pregnancy sonce she hasnt seen a doctor ywt and learned wisdom

On May 04 2020 03:52 Alakaslam wrote:
WHAT THE FUCK I TOLD UPU FOOKS HIS IS ROWN NOW

On May 04 2020 03:56 Grackaroni wrote:

That could really easily just be a throwaway comment. I can speculate about night kills and then mostly ignore it.

On May 04 2020 04:03 Trfel wrote:
Jockmcplop, GlowingBear. Top suspects.

On May 04 2020 14:29 Trfel wrote:
Okay. I'll assume you are not mafia. What do you think about my post on Jockmcplop?

On May 04 2020 14:55 Trfel wrote:
What I'm saying is, Jockmcplop effectively has only made nine posts this game. Nine.

It's like how geript reads me. As annoying as it is, has Jockmcplop said anything smart this game? Has he shown his towniness? He hasn't, and that makes him mafia.

I could go through literally every other post Jockmcplop made and show why it doesn't say anything helpful. I can if that'd be helpful, I felt like I didn't need to though... Jockmcplop's filter is available for everyone to see on their own.

On May 04 2020 15:09 Trfel wrote:
He said he had a medical emergency, not voting would have happened as either alignment.

I don't know, honestly. I'm sorry I'm lazy, remind me who you think is mafia?

On May 04 2020 15:21 Trfel wrote:
ShoCkeyy for a brief moment, I think Jockmcplop or you before that.

I could see raynpelikoneet maybe being mafia here, I need to reread him at some point. Why weren't you convinced by Alakaslam's EoD2? It seemed about average to me.

On May 05 2020 07:53 Alakaslam wrote:
I dont get why so many people see trfel’s play as townie.

Lists, asking questions, never knows who is scum

Why hasnt he been lynched? Well because he has been active and there are so many inactives this game. But now we are past the point where that matters. I am really nagged by a feeling that Trfel is scum.

On May 03 2020 19:12 Jockmcplop wrote:


OK. Thanks for responding. I don't like this argument, at least I can't go along with it, because someone's emotional investment in the game is something you get to know about each individual player and I don't really know GB at all. If I was sure you were town I would be more likely to take your word for it, but I'm not.

As for the other parts of your case:


Point 1 does get my interest. Do you have quotes to back this up?


Point 2 is actually the reason i was townreading GB to start with. I think he would have taken the opportunity to get a mislynch on me rather than just townreading me because I didn't vote. He's reacting to what is happening in the thread. I take it you think these reactions are not genuine looking. Is that because of bad reasoning or just a feeling you get?

On May 05 2020 11:52 Grackaroni wrote:

we're at 5-3 at this point and you/Jock both write each other off as possible mafia just for choosing not to lynch each other. I kind of doubt you would both do that as a team, but I think 1 of you two has to be mafia.

On May 05 2020 12:29 Trfel wrote:
Grackaroni, what are your thoughts on Jockmcplop right now?

What are your thoughts on me?

On May 05 2020 12:09 Alakaslam wrote:
The reason it feels hopeless to me is no one can come to a consensus on anyone let alone the right people.

I dont care if Trfel is active as all hell and... saying big cases and wondering who is scum all the time. It still looks textbook scum to me but it is like pulling teeth to get anyone to agree with that.

In fact. After what GB said

##Unvote
##Vote: Trfel

I seriously think he is more likely to flip red than Jock is. Because I may SR jock but that is only because I think the dead hate him except that the dead also hate me, so I’d better not read based on the incorrect dead (and the provably incorrect dead at that).

On May 05 2020 12:37 Trfel wrote:
Blue.

On May 05 2020 12:44 Trfel wrote:
I guess I just kinda assumed since he's been hinting at it and raynpelikoneet believed it. Plus, no one else has claimed blue yet and this would have been the time to do it (given that it's MYLO). I'd be very, very, very surprised if there was only one blue in a 12 player game.

On May 05 2020 12:37 Trfel wrote:
Hey GlowingBear, have you been feeling any better?

How's life been the past few years? I guess it's been quite a while since we really talked.

On May 05 2020 13:55 Trfel wrote:
Glad to hear! It makes sense, I'm really glad you are doing better, hopefully you can continue to recover. Mostly stress from work?

Glad you made it through! I guess I'm kinda in a life crisis currently, I think I am going to go back to school and try and get a different degree. So that will be fun, more school....

Yes, I think you coached me twice, actually! Which is why my play early in the game can tend to be similar to yours (to get discussion started). I think I've improved my read accuracy significantly over the last few years, ironically the rest of my play has gotten worse over the same time, but ah well. I appreciate your willingness to help and offer advice