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On December 07 2011 08:21 slyboogie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 07:23 zeehar wrote:On December 07 2011 06:43 slyboogie wrote:
Wait a minute, Orlando has the opposite of leverage. There is no draft pick compensation in the NBA. If Dwight Howard walks away from them, then they are left with nothing. You state that 0% is better than 85% but that presumes 0% is going to land you the number 1 or 2 draft pick overall. But there's a lottery in the NBA - what if you end up with pick 4?
Even if you got pick 1 or 2, you're left assuming the risk of an unknown quantity. Mediocrity is very bad but it isn't worse than awful. if dwight leaves in one way or another, the magic have no choice but to rebuild from the ground up, because they're not going to go ANYWHERE with jameer nelson as their best player. they have an enormous payroll that mostly goes to players starting to decline from their not-so-lofty highs in the first place. it's a pity no-one in their right mind will take arenas, hedo, pietrus, or q-rich off their hands. they don't want pau because he's 34, and bynum is too injury prone to build around. anyway, go pacers. it's a relief that the lakers have no young talent to give in exchange for either paul or howard or even high draft picks for that matter. That's ridiculous. You're saying there's no difference between trading Dwight Howard for 75 cents on the dollar and having Dwight Howard walk away after his contract is over. That's completely insane. Even Lebron James was signed and traded for SOME value. 1st round picks and cash. Because you aren't about to lose control of any financial asset for literally nothing, when you can garner some return on it. "Ground up" or not, it's better to trade Dwight Howard to the Lakers for the 2.4 years left on Pau Gasol's contract, cash and picks - because Pau Gasol and picks are underpaid assets worth more than a huge gaping hole in your roster. They represents something plausible.
because the magic are going to go gee whiz! the lakers are offering the 29th/30th pick next year and someone who is owed 60M for the next 3 years! we have to do this deal!
a gaping hole in your roster means cap space, a gaping hole means a shitty record that gives you a good pick. the last thing the magic want to do is be stuck with gasol who will lead them to the middle of the pack, an early PO exit and a low first round pick. very appetizing. i am not an advocate for tanking, but sometimes the best way to go back up is to just blow the whole damn thing up. isn't that what miami did? ship out as much of their salary as possible for the summer of 2010?
i'm not saying orlando shouldn't just let dwight leave. i'm saying they can get much better offers from other teams. teams with young talent and/or higher draft picks.
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On December 07 2011 08:20 zeehar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 08:16 CokeFTW wrote:
Kobe-CP3-D12 or Melo-Amare-CP3.....
Kobe-CP3-D12 will be UNBEATABLE.... and unlike the Knicks, Lakers actually have pieces they can pay up for D12 and CP3. I feel bad for Odom having the best season of his career last season and might be traded away. no they don't. what would new orleans and orlando want with gasol, odom or bynum? no-one wants the lakers' very expensive old players. bynum's knees could give at any second. orlando can do much better than gasol for howard, for example. gasol's not going to lead them to a championship, and hurts their rebuilding if dwight goes. bynum is a slightly better proposition, but what's going to stop him bailing when his contract is over, and bynum has barely completed a full season.
If Dwight or CP3 demand to be traded what can the Owners do? Let them walk away in a year without getting anything back? Look at Cleveland letting LBJ walk away without any compensations. I'm pretty sure the Magic would rather get a young Bynum and rebuild the team around him than waiting a year and get owned.
Wait so your saying other teams like the Clippers, Heat, Nets. Have better players to offer for D12 or CP3??
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On December 07 2011 08:27 CokeFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 08:20 zeehar wrote:On December 07 2011 08:16 CokeFTW wrote:
Kobe-CP3-D12 or Melo-Amare-CP3.....
Kobe-CP3-D12 will be UNBEATABLE.... and unlike the Knicks, Lakers actually have pieces they can pay up for D12 and CP3. I feel bad for Odom having the best season of his career last season and might be traded away. no they don't. what would new orleans and orlando want with gasol, odom or bynum? no-one wants the lakers' very expensive old players. bynum's knees could give at any second. orlando can do much better than gasol for howard, for example. gasol's not going to lead them to a championship, and hurts their rebuilding if dwight goes. bynum is a slightly better proposition, but what's going to stop him bailing when his contract is over, and bynum has barely completed a full season. If Dwight or CP3 demand to be traded what can the Owners do? Let them walk away in a year without getting anything back? Look at Cleveland letting LBJ walk away without any compensations. I'm pretty sure the Magic would rather get a young Bynum and rebuild the team around him than waiting a year and get owned. Wait so your saying other teams like the Clippers, Heat, Nets. Have better players to offer for D12 or CP3??
the clippers have eric gordon and eric bledsoe and have pretty good picks.
golden state can offer one of steph curry or monta ellis and their good picks for CP3.
the nets can offer brook lopez and pretty good picks for howard. i'd believe lopez and the nets' top-10 pick is a better proposition for the magic than pau and a shitty pick.
why are the heat even in this discussion?
given how freaking awesome the 2012 draft class is shaping up to be, especially for bigs, a high pick is infinitely more valuable than it was for this year's draft (which was horrible outside of irving and williams)
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On December 07 2011 08:25 zeehar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 08:21 slyboogie wrote:On December 07 2011 07:23 zeehar wrote:On December 07 2011 06:43 slyboogie wrote:
Wait a minute, Orlando has the opposite of leverage. There is no draft pick compensation in the NBA. If Dwight Howard walks away from them, then they are left with nothing. You state that 0% is better than 85% but that presumes 0% is going to land you the number 1 or 2 draft pick overall. But there's a lottery in the NBA - what if you end up with pick 4?
Even if you got pick 1 or 2, you're left assuming the risk of an unknown quantity. Mediocrity is very bad but it isn't worse than awful. if dwight leaves in one way or another, the magic have no choice but to rebuild from the ground up, because they're not going to go ANYWHERE with jameer nelson as their best player. they have an enormous payroll that mostly goes to players starting to decline from their not-so-lofty highs in the first place. it's a pity no-one in their right mind will take arenas, hedo, pietrus, or q-rich off their hands. they don't want pau because he's 34, and bynum is too injury prone to build around. anyway, go pacers. it's a relief that the lakers have no young talent to give in exchange for either paul or howard or even high draft picks for that matter. That's ridiculous. You're saying there's no difference between trading Dwight Howard for 75 cents on the dollar and having Dwight Howard walk away after his contract is over. That's completely insane. Even Lebron James was signed and traded for SOME value. 1st round picks and cash. Because you aren't about to lose control of any financial asset for literally nothing, when you can garner some return on it. "Ground up" or not, it's better to trade Dwight Howard to the Lakers for the 2.4 years left on Pau Gasol's contract, cash and picks - because Pau Gasol and picks are underpaid assets worth more than a huge gaping hole in your roster. They represents something plausible. because the magic are going to go gee whiz! the lakers are offering the 29th/30th pick next year and someone who is owed 60M for the next 3 years! we have to do this deal! a gaping hole in your roster means cap space, a gaping hole means a shitty record that gives you a good pick. the last thing the magic want to do is be stuck with gasol who will lead them to the middle of the pack, an early PO exit and a low first round pick. very appetizing. i am not an advocate for tanking, but sometimes the best way to go back up is to just blow the whole damn thing up. isn't that what miami did? ship out as much of their salary as possible for the summer of 2010? i'm not saying orlando shouldn't just let dwight leave. i'm saying they can get much better offers from other teams. teams with young talent and/or higher draft picks.
Thank God their they have cap space!!! Now they can go after Dwight Howard and Chris Paul!!! And like you said, Free Agents are super excited to play with Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu!!! And the lottery means a chance at Andre Drummond!!! Who has the upside of....Dwight Howard!!! YAY!!! They are in a shitty spot but Dwight Howard sinks their chances at trading him to any team he doesn't want to go to. He can just say, "No extension, sorry." Why would any team give away assets to put themselves into the Magic's shoes?
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On December 07 2011 08:33 slyboogie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 08:25 zeehar wrote:On December 07 2011 08:21 slyboogie wrote:On December 07 2011 07:23 zeehar wrote:On December 07 2011 06:43 slyboogie wrote:
Wait a minute, Orlando has the opposite of leverage. There is no draft pick compensation in the NBA. If Dwight Howard walks away from them, then they are left with nothing. You state that 0% is better than 85% but that presumes 0% is going to land you the number 1 or 2 draft pick overall. But there's a lottery in the NBA - what if you end up with pick 4?
Even if you got pick 1 or 2, you're left assuming the risk of an unknown quantity. Mediocrity is very bad but it isn't worse than awful. if dwight leaves in one way or another, the magic have no choice but to rebuild from the ground up, because they're not going to go ANYWHERE with jameer nelson as their best player. they have an enormous payroll that mostly goes to players starting to decline from their not-so-lofty highs in the first place. it's a pity no-one in their right mind will take arenas, hedo, pietrus, or q-rich off their hands. they don't want pau because he's 34, and bynum is too injury prone to build around. anyway, go pacers. it's a relief that the lakers have no young talent to give in exchange for either paul or howard or even high draft picks for that matter. That's ridiculous. You're saying there's no difference between trading Dwight Howard for 75 cents on the dollar and having Dwight Howard walk away after his contract is over. That's completely insane. Even Lebron James was signed and traded for SOME value. 1st round picks and cash. Because you aren't about to lose control of any financial asset for literally nothing, when you can garner some return on it. "Ground up" or not, it's better to trade Dwight Howard to the Lakers for the 2.4 years left on Pau Gasol's contract, cash and picks - because Pau Gasol and picks are underpaid assets worth more than a huge gaping hole in your roster. They represents something plausible. because the magic are going to go gee whiz! the lakers are offering the 29th/30th pick next year and someone who is owed 60M for the next 3 years! we have to do this deal! a gaping hole in your roster means cap space, a gaping hole means a shitty record that gives you a good pick. the last thing the magic want to do is be stuck with gasol who will lead them to the middle of the pack, an early PO exit and a low first round pick. very appetizing. i am not an advocate for tanking, but sometimes the best way to go back up is to just blow the whole damn thing up. isn't that what miami did? ship out as much of their salary as possible for the summer of 2010? i'm not saying orlando shouldn't just let dwight leave. i'm saying they can get much better offers from other teams. teams with young talent and/or higher draft picks. Thank God their they have cap space!!! Now they can go after Dwight Howard and Chris Paul!!! And like you said, Free Agents are super excited to play with Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu!!! And the lottery means a chance at Andre Drummond!!! Who has the upside of....Dwight Howard!!! YAY!!! They are in a shitty spot but Dwight Howard sinks their chances at trading him to any team he doesn't want to go to. He can just say, "No extension, sorry." Why would any team give away assets to put themselves into the Magic's shoes?
neither cp3 nor d12 have said "i'm not going to sign anywhere else but NY/LA." until they come out and actually demand a trade, we can't say they're not going to extend anywhere else other than those two locations.
the nets traded for deron williams not knowing he would extend for them, but they did it anyway.
having andre drummond, perry jones, anthony davis, etc is better for the future than having an aging pau gasol.
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anyhoo, it's not like any of us are going to budge from our positions, so let's shift slightly away from this.
the lack of competitive balance is what has made shitty situations like this developing. i mean, free agency means free agency, but players coming out and saying shit like i'm going to leave with 2~3 years still left on their contracts because of the inherent difference in markets is messed up. really. let's see what the new cba does to remedy this (which is what they are claiming, anyway)
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I'm 100% with Ace on this one.
If I'm going to lose Dwight I either want young talent or picks in return. For example, taking Eric Gordon and the Clippers lotto Minny pick would be a much better deal than getting Pau + whatever filler the Laker might offer.
I'd rather blow it up and go through the draft than struggle for low playoff seeds with players who just aren't quite good enough.
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You don't have a 100% shot at Andre Drummond. The NBA is saddled with the draft lottery - thanks Knicks. If you're just gonna tank a season and pray for the 1st pick overall, you deserve what you get. The Nets situation is different because they traded for 2 seasons of Deron Williams, but in general, your point stands. I'm just trying to tell you that there is no way that Howard, or Paul, is let go for nothing. It will never happen. So if that means they go to LA for 3 million bucks and a 2nd round pick, that's what they're gonna go for.
This doesn't mean it's going to happen for sure. Just that they won't walk away from their contract for nothing.
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On December 07 2011 08:42 slyboogie wrote:
You don't have a 100% shot at Andre Drummond. The NBA is saddled with the draft lottery - thanks Knicks. If you're just gonna tank a season and pray for the 1st pick overall, you deserve what you get. The Nets situation is different because they traded for 2 seasons of Deron Williams, but in general, your point stands. I'm just trying to tell you that there is no way that Howard, or Paul, is let go for nothing. It will never happen. So if that means they go to LA for 3 million bucks and a 2nd round pick, that's what they're gonna go for.
This doesn't mean it's going to happen for sure. Just that they won't walk away from their contract for nothing.
yes, as i said, i agree with you in that dwight isn't going to be walking away for free. i was saying that there was no way in hell LA would be getting dwight or cp3 as long as another team remains interested and can offer a better deal.
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Listen to what zeehar is saying though. Orlando and New Orleans want to be rebuild. The best ways to do that is with some combination of lottery picks, young up and coming stars on rookie contracts and SUPERSTAR talent. The Lakers have none of these to offer Orlando/NO and they would be shooting themselves in the foot if they took it. Orlando/NO also know that Howard/Chris Paul can't go to the Lakers in Free Agency without the Lakers DROPPING assets freely which they do not want to do and may find impossible.
It doesn't matter if they get the first overall pick. As long as they get any lottery pick which the Clippers have, they will be satisfied. Orlando and NO would be wise to attempt to do what Chicago and OKC did in continuosly drafting well while bottoming out hoarding draft picks and eventually flipping them for complementary pieces. You can not do this with Andrew Bynum or Pau Gasol.
On December 07 2011 08:27 CokeFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 08:20 zeehar wrote:On December 07 2011 08:16 CokeFTW wrote:
Kobe-CP3-D12 or Melo-Amare-CP3.....
Kobe-CP3-D12 will be UNBEATABLE.... and unlike the Knicks, Lakers actually have pieces they can pay up for D12 and CP3. I feel bad for Odom having the best season of his career last season and might be traded away. no they don't. what would new orleans and orlando want with gasol, odom or bynum? no-one wants the lakers' very expensive old players. bynum's knees could give at any second. orlando can do much better than gasol for howard, for example. gasol's not going to lead them to a championship, and hurts their rebuilding if dwight goes. bynum is a slightly better proposition, but what's going to stop him bailing when his contract is over, and bynum has barely completed a full season. If Dwight or CP3 demand to be traded what can the Owners do? Let them walk away in a year without getting anything back? Look at Cleveland letting LBJ walk away without any compensations. I'm pretty sure the Magic would rather get a young Bynum and rebuild the team around him than waiting a year and get owned. Wait so your saying other teams like the Clippers, Heat, Nets. Have better players to offer for D12 or CP3??
Cleveland and Toronto both got draft picks in S&Ts. The Clippers and Nets have better offers than the Lakers. Miami does too but they won't be silly enough to trade any of their Big 3 away.
Dwight Howard and Chris Paul can demand a trade all they want. The reason Miami got Lebron in a trade is because they had the cap space to absorb him. They also got lucky in that Wade, their only big money returning asset was also negotiating a new contract at the same time so he took less money. The Lakers aren't in such great position.
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On December 07 2011 06:38 Ace wrote:
That is the problem though - the Lakers don't have any other throw ins. Also remember the Lakers would need to amsesty or at least trade away some of their other players like Odom and Gasol/Bynum to make the salaries match unless you want Dwight Howard to take a massive paycut.
Also realize Orlando has leverage here. Without being traded Dwight Howard can not get onto the Lakers. Orlando can let him walk and bottom out their team, or trade him to the Clippers for young players and draft picks. As good as Pau Gasol is he isn't a SUPERSTAR. You can't rebuild around All-Star players because they can't carry terrible teams singlehandedly. The only players to ever do it in the modern era are Allen Iverson, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Dwyane Wade and Lebron James.
Ya I agree, the Lakers do not have the throw-ins to get both of these players, but I actually meant Bynum, Odom, Metta World Peace(lol) and/or Pau being involved in the trade(s). The Lakers might not seemingly have enough to trade for both howard and Paul, but one could definitely be possible.
The problem is that if they do trade for Howard, what is going to be left for Paul? With that said, Paul seems like the one that makes the most sense to be moved first. Magic seem to be willing to wait a-la-Nuggets did last year and try to get more as the trade deadline approaches. The Lakers can afford to wait, and have the pieces and finances to make the trade work so they at least are in the conversation I would say.
On December 07 2011 08:20 zeehar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 08:16 CokeFTW wrote:
Kobe-CP3-D12 or Melo-Amare-CP3.....
Kobe-CP3-D12 will be UNBEATABLE.... and unlike the Knicks, Lakers actually have pieces they can pay up for D12 and CP3. I feel bad for Odom having the best season of his career last season and might be traded away. no they don't. what would new orleans and orlando want with gasol, odom or bynum? no-one wants the lakers' very expensive old players. bynum's knees could give at any second. orlando can do much better than gasol for howard, for example. gasol's not going to lead them to a championship, and hurts their rebuilding if dwight goes. bynum is a slightly better proposition, but what's going to stop him bailing when his contract is over, and bynum has barely completed a full season.
as compared to who? All these opinions about players really only matter when comparing them to who else is being offered for the same players. You said Orlando can do much better, and if they can, then you better believe they will.
edit: so many new posts now 
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And btw Bynum's contract is up in two years ( I think) and the Lakers would have to be willing to eat up Hedo's contract in order for the Magic to even think about it. These two things make it a little more attractable to them?
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@MassHysteria: If you were building a team from the groundup and you are Orlando in the Eastern Conference would you take Bynum, Odom and Gasol for Dwight Howard? Take the salary and years they have on their contracts and ask yourself if it's worth it. You aren't getting past Chicago or Miami with those 3, and you'd be paying money out for first round casualty with no young players.
On December 07 2011 08:41 zeehar wrote:
anyhoo, it's not like any of us are going to budge from our positions, so let's shift slightly away from this.
the lack of competitive balance is what has made shitty situations like this developing. i mean, free agency means free agency, but players coming out and saying shit like i'm going to leave with 2~3 years still left on their contracts because of the inherent difference in markets is messed up. really. let's see what the new cba does to remedy this (which is what they are claiming, anyway)
That hasn't ever happened.
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Yep, spot on. Orlando would be pretty stupid, imo, to take anything from the Lakers for Howard (Kobe's off the table).
If I'm going to lose Dwight I'd be taking as many high lotto picks as possible or young upside talent as Ace says. The Magic aren't going to be any better than they are now dealing for guys like Gasol, Bynum, Odom etc. The only thing they'll achieve is mid to low playoff seeds and middling draft picks. Most sure-fire way to NBA mediocrity (ala my Bucks and the Hawks).
Small market teams like Orlando get their superstars through the draft. It makes sense that if they lose Dwight, their best chance of returning to NBA contention is to tank for draft picks and acquire upside young talent. They'll suck for a few years, but it's a far better long-term strategy than fighting out for low Playoff seeds with not-quite-good-enough talent.
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Why do you guys think that the Magic can wrangle a superstar out of any deal for Dwight Howard? We can literally count with 2 hands and some of our toes who a Superstar is. And you aren't trading away years of contract control of a superstar for 1 uncertain year of Dwight Howard. And even if it wasn't a superstar, I don't think any team is going to deal away real value for a mere chance at Dwight Howard resigning with them. They need a guarantee.
A trade involving a superstar is almost always unsatisfactory for one side or the other. By the end of this, I highly doubt that we'll be patting Otis Smith for his masterful handling of this deal. He has no leverage, he needs to take what he can get.
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On December 07 2011 08:27 CokeFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 08:20 zeehar wrote:On December 07 2011 08:16 CokeFTW wrote:
Kobe-CP3-D12 or Melo-Amare-CP3.....
Kobe-CP3-D12 will be UNBEATABLE.... and unlike the Knicks, Lakers actually have pieces they can pay up for D12 and CP3. I feel bad for Odom having the best season of his career last season and might be traded away. no they don't. what would new orleans and orlando want with gasol, odom or bynum? no-one wants the lakers' very expensive old players. bynum's knees could give at any second. orlando can do much better than gasol for howard, for example. gasol's not going to lead them to a championship, and hurts their rebuilding if dwight goes. bynum is a slightly better proposition, but what's going to stop him bailing when his contract is over, and bynum has barely completed a full season. If Dwight or CP3 demand to be traded what can the Owners do? Let them walk away in a year without getting anything back? Look at Cleveland letting LBJ walk away without any compensations. I'm pretty sure the Magic would rather get a young Bynum and rebuild the team around him than waiting a year and get owned.
Ever heard of a George Costanza trade?
http://wagesofwins.com/2009/12/29/a-costanza-trade-for-joe-dumars/
George Costanza is considered a candidate for the job of assistant general manager with the New York Yankees.
"How ’bout this? We trade Jim Leyritz and Bernie Williams, for Barry Bonds, huh? Whadda ya think? That way you have Griffey and Bonds, in the same outfield!"
Essentially, George – as a Yankee employee and fan – supports trades where the Yankees clearly get the better end of the deal.
Here's the thing: is there a team other than Miami who doesn't want Dwight Howard and Chris Paul?
Second, Chris Paul has never said anything about asking to go to LA or refusing to sign anywhere except NY. Dwight Howard, who seems legitimately loyal, has never said anything about asking for a trade, and doesn't even encourage the questions.
Third, one part of the lockout was that teams hated the idea of stars conglomerating on big market teams. Yet Orlando is suddenly supposed to turn around and be an enabler now? We refuse to let players play because we don't want this to happen. Ok, now let's help make it happen.
So Howard seems more content about being on a good team than an actual super team. It's certainly possible he would re-sign on a promising team like the Nets' Deron nucleus. That combined with the fact that there are lots of teams that can offer more than the Lakers, and Orlando should be actively disinterested in dealing with the Lakers unless Howard demands it.
Finally, the Lakers don't have enough trade assets for Howard and Paul, they only have Constanza trade hopes. Let's say Howard or Paul are worth 2 of Bynum, Gasol, Odom. Now the other player only gets 1. Hmmm. Unless they trade Kobe, which a rebuilding team wouldn't want.
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Although my above post immediately creates bias, might as well put numbers to the speculation.
Poll: Will Orlando trade Dwight Howard to the LakersNo (3) 100% Yes (0) 0% 3 total votes Your vote: Will Orlando trade Dwight Howard to the Lakers (Vote): Yes
(Vote): No
I should have asked if voters were lakers fans, too.
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We know Orlando is never getting a superstar for Dwight Howard. We also know that the next best way to get one is to draft one. Which is why we are all advocating finding a team with picks which the Lakers do not have. Just taking what you can get is exactly why we had a lockout in the first place: Front Offices making deals that they shouldn't be making. Sometimes the correct move is to make no move at all.
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the new schedules are out! my pacers are playing the pistons at home.. would be a good opportunity to start with a win.
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Yep. It'd be great for Orlando to trade Howard of OKC for Durant, but it isn't going to happen.
The next best thing is young talent and high lotto picks: the sorts of guy who CAN be superstars in the future.
Orlando isn't going to get any better than they are now by trading for older (and expensive) all-star, but not quite superstar, level talent. It isn't going to get them anywhere.
They should find a willing trading partner with young potential stars or high picks. Otherwise they may as well let Dwight walk in free agency, blow it up and start again like Cleveland did. In one season without LeBron, the Cavs, imo, have one of the more brighter outlooks in the league through gutting their roster and trading for young talent.
For example, whose roster would you rather have now: the Cavs or the Hawks? Those are the types of choice Orlando face with what they decide to do with Howard.
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EPT
